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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS1997

Convergent seed germination in South African fynbos and Californian chaparral

California chaparral and South African fynbos are fire-prone communities dominated by species exhibiting remarkable similarities in germination response. In both regions there are a substantial number of species with germination stimulated chemically by charred wood and smoke. This type of germination behaviour has arisen independently in distantly related families and is interpreted as convergent evolution. Heat-shock is also an important germination trigger that is widespread, although in both regions it is most common in the same families. Phylogeney may play an important role in the presence of this postfire germination cue in both regions, but a much more rigorous analysis is required to show that this trait represents a single unique event in each lineage. In both regions, germination response is not randomly distributed across growth forms and there are marked regional similiarities in the type of germination behaviour associated with certain growth forms. Geophytes largely lack refractory seeds, which require fire-type cues for germination, but the presence of fire-stimulated flowering of bulbs and corms may time recruitment to subsequent postfire years. Annuals that cue germination to postfire conditions are predominantly triggered by chemicals from smoke and/or charred wood.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS1998

Riparian zones as havens for exotic plant species in the central grasslands

In the Central Grasslands of the United States, we hypothesized that riparian zones high in soil fertility would contain more exotic plant species than upland areas of low soil fertility. Our alternate hypothesis was that riparian zones high in native plant species richness and cover would monopolize available resources and resist invasion by exotic species. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data from 40 1 m2subplots (nested in four 1000 m2 plots) in both riparian and upland sites at four study areas in Colorado, Wyoming, and South Dakota (a total of 320 1 m2subplots and 32 1000 m2 plots). At the 1 m2 scale, mean foliar cover of native species was significantly greater (P < 0.001) in riparian zones (36.6% ?? 1.7%) compared to upland sites (28.7% ?? 1.5%), but at this small scale there were no consistent patterns of native and exotic species richness among the four management areas. Mean exotic species cover was slightly higher in upland sites compared to riparian sites (9.0% ?? 3.8% versus 8.2% ?? 3.0% cover). However, mean exotic species richness and cover were greater in the riparian zones than upland sites in three of four management areas. At the 1000 m2 scale, mean exotic species richness was also significantly greater (P < 0.05) in riparian zones (7.8 ?? 1.0 species) compared to upland sites (4.8 ?? 1.0 species) despite the heavy invasion of one upland site. For all 32 plots combined, 21% of the variance in exotic species richness was explained by positive relationships with soil % silt (t = 1.7, P = 0.09) and total foliar cover (t = 2.4, P = 0.02). Likewise, 26% of the variance in exotic species cover (log10 cover) was explained by positive relationships with soil % silt (t = 2.3, P = 0.03) and total plant species richness (t = 2.4, P = 0.02). At landscape scales (four 1000 m2 plots per type combined), total foliar cover was significantly and positively correlated with exotic species richness (r = 0.73, P < 0.05) and cover (r = 0.74, P < 0.05). Exotic species cover (log10 cover) was positively correlated with log10% N in the soil (r = 0.61, P = 0.11) at landscape scales. On average, we found that 85% (??5%) of the total number of exotic species in the sampling plots of a given management area could be found in riparian zones, while only 50% (??8%) were found in upland plots. We conclude that: (1 species-rich and productive riparian zones are particularly invasible in grassland ecosystems; and (2) riparian zones may act as havens, corridors, and sources of exotic plant invasions for upland sites and pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS1997

Demographic patterns of Ferocactus cylindraceus in relation to substrate age and grazing history

Three subpopulations of Ferocactus cylindraceus, a short-columnar cactus of the Sonoran and Mojave deserts, were sampled in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, at sites representing a range of substrate ages and different grazing histories. Age-height relations were determined from annual growth, then used to estimate probable year of establishment for each cohort. Eight years between 1944 and 1992 were especially favorable for establishment. Six of these 8 years coincided with El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, indicating that as for many woody plants in arid regions, somewhat unusual climatic conditions are necessary if populations are to replace themselves. Comparison of age structures showed that established and developing populations have somewhat different dynamics in that the rate of population increase was slowest on the youngest terrace. On the ancient terraces, about half the plants were less than 25 years old. Plants older than 40 years were few; however the oldest plants in the study (about 49 years) grew on the ancient terraces. On the recent terrace, 76% of the subpopulation was 25 years or younger, and the oldest living plant was about 36 years of age. The age structures of subpopulations on grazed and ungrazed sites also differed markedly. On ungrazed sites, subpopulations were more or less at equilibrium, with enough young plants to replace old ones as they died. In contrast, the subpopulation on the grazed site was in a state of marked disequilibrium. Grazing before 1981 largely extirpated a palatable subshrub that was probably an important nurse plant. Until the shrub population at Indian Canyon recovers from decades of burro grazing, a rebound in E cylindraceus establishment is not to be expected.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS1998

Species-environment relationships and vegetation patterns: Effects of spatial scale and tree life-stage

Do relationships between species and environmental gradients strengthen or weaken with tree life-stage (i.e., small seedlings, large seedlings, saplings, and mature trees)? Strengthened relationships may lead to distinct forest type boundaries, or weakening connections could lead to gradual ecotones and heterogeneous forest landscapes. We quantified the changes in forest dominance (basal area of tree species by life-stage) and environmental factors (elevation, slope, aspect, intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), summer soil moisture, and soil depth and texture) across 14 forest ecotones (n = 584, 10 m x 10 m plots) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Local, ecotone-specific species-environment relationships, based on multiple regression techniques, generally strengthened from the small seedling stage (multiple R2 ranged from 0.00 to 0.26) to the tree stage (multiple R2 ranged from 0.20 to 0.61). At the landscape scale, combined canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) among species and for all tree life-stages suggested that the seedlings of most species became established in lower-elevation, drier sites than where mature trees of the same species dominated. However, conflicting evidence showed that species-environment relationships may weaken with tree life-stage. Seedlings were only found in a subset of plots (habitats) occupied by mature trees of the same species. At the landscape scale, CCA results showed that species-environment relationships weakened somewhat from the small seedling stage (86.4% of the variance explained by the first two axes) to the tree stage (76.6% of variance explained). The basal area of tree species co-occurring with Pinus contorta Doug. ex. Loud declined more gradually than P. contorta basal area declined across ecotones, resulting in less-distinct forest type boundaries. We conclude that broad, gradual ecotones and heterogeneous forest landscapes are created and maintained by: (1) sporadic establishment of seedlings in sub-optimal habitats; (2) survivorship of saplings and mature trees in a wider range of environmental conditions than seedlings presently endure; and (3) the longevity of trees and persistence of tree species in a broad range of soils, climates, and disturbance regimes.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS1999

Patch to landscape patterns in post fire recruitment of a serotinous conifer

Obligate seeding species are highly specialized to fire disturbance and many conifers such as cypress, which are adapted to high intensity stand-replacing fires, have canopy seed banks stored in serotinous cones. Resilience of these trees to fire disturbance is a function of disturbance frequency and one focus of this study was to determine the effect of patch age on postfire recruitment. A second focus was to determine the extent to which fire induced a landscape level change in the location of the forest boundary. Prior to a fire in 1994, a large Cupressus sargentii forest was a mosaic landscape of different aged patches of nearly pure cypress bordered by chaparral. Patches less than 60 years of age were relatively dense with roughly one tree every 1–2 m 2 but older patches had thinned to one tree every 3–15 m 2 . Older trees had substantially greater canopy cone crops but the stand level seed bank size was not significantly correlated with stand age. Fire-dependent obligate seeding species are sensitive to fire return interval because of potential changes in the size of seed banks – facing both a potential `immaturity risk' and a `senescence risk'. At our site, C. sargentii regeneration was substantial in stands as young as 20 years, suggesting that fire return interval would need to be shorter than this to pose any significant risk. Reduced seedling recruitment in stands nearly 100 years of age may indicate risk from senescence is greater, however, even the lowest density seedling recruitment was many times greater than the density of mature forests – thus this cypress would appear to be resilient to a wide range of fire return intervals. Changes in landscape patterning of forest and chaparral are unlikely except after fire. Factors that inhibit tree establishment within the shrubland, as well as factors that affect shrub establishment within the forest border likely affect the `permeability' of this ecotone. After the 1994 fire this boundary appeared to be stable in that cypress recruited best within the shadow of burned canopies and cypress were weak invaders of adjacent shrublands.

California↗
USGS2004

Temporal and spatial patterns in emergence and early survival of perennial plants in the Sonoran Desert

Seedling emergence and survival of 15 perennial species were studied for six years in a 557-m2 permanent plot at Tumamoc Hill, Arizona, USA, an ungrazed site in the northern Sonoran Desert. The minimum rain required for germination and emergence ranged from 17.5 to 35.6 mm. Few species emerged in every year of the study. First-year survival averaged across all 15 species was 3.7%; only 0.1% of seedlings lived as long as four years. The odds of survival in the first year improved with increased rain. About three times as many seedlings died from predation as desiccation. In 2-m2 subplots, mortality of three woody species in the first 30 days after emergence appeared to be independent of seedling density. Short-, moderate-, and long-lived species displayed distinct survival strategies. Long-lived species compensated for generally poor seedling survival by frequent germination and emergence. Moderate-lived species exhibited highly episodic germination and emergence, a potentially risky behavior that might have been offset to some extent by relatively good long-term survival. Short-lived species had the highest seedling survival. Because these species can bloom in their first year, good early survival meant that some individuals were able to reproduce before they died.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS2004

Stand development on reforested bottomlands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Reforestation of bottomland hardwood sites in the southeastern United States has markedly increased in recent years due, in part, to financial incentives provided by conservation programs. Currently >250,000 ha of marginal farmland have been returned to hardwood forests. I observed establishment of trees and shrubs on 205 reforested bottomlands: 133 sites were planted primarily with oak species ( Quercus spp . ), 60 sites were planted with pulpwood producing species ( Populus deltoides , Liquidambar styraciflua , or Platanus occidentalis ), and 12 sites were not planted (i.e., passive regeneration). Although oak sites were planted with more species, sites planted with pulpwood species were more rapidly colonized by additional species. The density of naturally colonizing species exceeded that of planted species but density of invaders decreased rapidly with distance from forest edge. Trees were shorter in height on sites planted with oaks than on sites planted with pulpwood species but within a site, planted trees attained greater heights than did colonizing species. Thus, planted trees dominated the canopy of reforested sites as they matured. Planted species acted in concert with natural invasion to influence the current condition of woody vegetation on reforested sites. Cluster analysis of species importance values distinguished three woody vegetation conditions: (1) Populus deltoides stands (2) oak stands with little natural invasion by other tree species, and (3) stands dominated by planted or naturally invading species other than oaks. Increased diversity on reforested sites would likely result from (a) greater diversity of planted species, particularly when sites are far from existing forest edges and (b) thinning of planted trees as they attain closed canopies.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou↗
USGS2013

Conifer seedling recruitment across a gradient from forest to alpine tundra: effects of species, provenance, and site

Background: Seedling germination and survival is a critical control on forest ecosystem boundaries, such as at the alpine–treeline ecotone. In addition, while it is known that species respond individualistically to the same suite of environmental drivers, the potential additional effect of local adaptation on seedling success has not been evaluated. Aims: To determine whether local adaptation may influence the position and movement of forest ecosystem boundaries, we quantified conifer seedling recruitment in common gardens across a subalpine forest to alpine tundra gradient at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Methods: We studied Pinus flexilis and Picea engelmannii grown from seed collected locally at High (3400 m a.s.l.) and Low (3060 m a.s.l.) elevations. We monitored emergence and survival of seeds sown directly into plots and survival of seedlings germinated indoors and transplanted after snowmelt. Results: Emergence and survival through the first growing season was greater for P. flexilis than P. engelmannii and for Low compared with High provenances. Yet survival through the second growing season was similar for both species and provenances. Seedling emergence and survival tended to be greatest in the subalpine forest and lowest in the alpine tundra. Survival was greater for transplants than for field-germinated seedlings. Conclusions: These results suggest that survival through the first few weeks is critical to the establishment of natural germinants. In addition, even small distances between seed sources can have a significant effect on early demographic performance – a factor that has rarely been considered in previous studies of tree recruitment and species range shifts.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Colonisation of the alpine tundra by trees: Alpine neighbours assist late-seral but not early-seral conifer seedlings

Background Climate change is projected to alter the elevation and latitude of treeline globally. Seed germination and seedling survival are critical controls on treeline expansion. Neighbouring alpine plants, either through competition for resources or through altered microclimate, also affect seedlings emerging in the alpine zone. With warming, alpine plant species may interact with each other more or less strongly. Aims To determine whether establishing tree seedlings and an alpine herb are similarly sensitive to alpine plant neighbours under ambient and altered climate. Methods We imposed active heating, watering, and removed all plants adjacent to emerging conifer seedlings and an alpine herb. Results Picea engelmannii seedlings showed lower survival compared with Pinus flexilis 3 weeks following neighbour removal, and after 1 year only survived in watered plots. Pinus seedlings responded to neighbour removal by lowering the quantum yield of photosynthesis (ϕ PSII ). Contrary to expectations from the stress gradient hypothesis, survival was reduced without neighbours near the low-elevation range limit of Chionophila jamesii . Conclusions Pinus flexilis has higher expansion potential into the alpine, while Picea engelmannii requires moist conditions that could be facilitated by neighbours to expand its range. This implies likely range expansion by P. flexilis with consequences for alpine plant diversity and ecosystem function.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Functional traits can explain coordinated seedling responses to drought and freezing stress

Limited plant establishment creates demographic bottlenecks that can alter vegetation trajectories in changing environments, yet it is unclear how common eco-evolutionary indicators of plant strategy shape early response to key stressors. We evaluated how early functional traits, phylogeny, and adult climate niche jointly explain seedling drought and freezing tolerance across 49 semi-arid rangeland species. The best models explained 36% of variation in freezing tolerance (traits only) and 45% of variation in drought tolerance (traits, phylogeny, and climate), identifying both shared and unique indicators of different stress responses. Drought tolerance was explained by rapid root elongation and large seed size, while phylogeny captured additional tolerance within the grass family. Seedling freezing tolerance was linked to rapid root elongation and colder thresholds for root growth, though traits shared some explanatory power with adult climate niche (cold temperature distribution). While stress resistance can be shaped by phylogeny and adaptations to long-term climate regimes, our results elucidate early traits with clearer direct links to establishment capacity under drought and freezing stress, across species. Additional research is needed to understand how variation in stress response strategies across multiple demographic stages (e.g., seeds, seedlings, mature plant) and ecological scales (e.g., within and across species' climate distributions) could affect vegetation distributions and trajectories in changing environments.

Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, western United Stat↗
USGS2009

Role of invasive Melilotus officinalis in two native plant communities

This study examines the impact of the exotic nitrogen-fixing legume Melilotus officinalis (L.) Lam. on native and exotic species cover in two Great Plains ecosystems in Badlands National Park, South Dakota. Melilotus is still widely planted and its effects on native ecosystems are not well studied. Melilotus could have direct effects on native plants, such as through competition or facilitation. Alternatively, Melilotus may have indirect effects on natives, e.g., by favoring exotic species which in turn have a negative effect on native species. This study examined these interactions across a 4-year period in two contrasting vegetation types: Badlands sparse vegetation and western wheatgrass ( Pascopyrum smithii ) mixed-grass prairie. Structural equation models were used to analyze the pathways through which Melilotus , native species, and other exotic species interact over a series of 2-year time steps. Melilotus can affect native and exotic species both in the current year and in the years after its death (a lag effect). A lag effect is possible because the death of a Melilotus plant can leave an open, potentially nitrogen-enriched site on the landscape. The results showed that the relationship between Melilotus and native and exotic species varied depending on the habitat and the year. In Badlands sparse vegetation, there was a consistent, strong, and positive relationship between Melilotus cover and native and exotic species cover suggesting that Melilotus is acting as a nurse plant and facilitating the growth of other species. In contrast, in western wheatgrass prairie, Melilotus was acting as a weak competitor and had no consistent effect on other species. In both habitats, there was little evidence for a direct lag effect of Melilotus on other species. Together, these results suggest both facilitative and competitive roles for Melilotus , depending on the vegetation type it invades.

South Dakota↗
USGS2020

Soil water availability shapes species richness in mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities

Questions Ecological communities are controlled by multiple, interacting abiotic and biotic factors that influence the distribution, abundance, and diversity of species. These processes jointly determine resource availability, resource competition, and ultimately species richness. For many terrestrial ecosystems in dryland climates, soil water availability is the most frequent limiting resource for plant species. We used field sampling coupled with process‐based soil water balance modeling to explore the relative importance of multiple macroclimatic, ecohydrological, and biotic variables on plant species and functional type richness at the landscape scale in dryland plant communities. Location Dryland plant communities dominated by big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) that span climatic and elevational gradients in Wyoming, USA. Methods We quantified species richness at 1,000 m 2 and used multiple regression to determine whether mean climatic conditions, multiple metrics of soil moisture from a soil water balance model (SOILWAT2), soil physical and chemical properties, and shrub stand structure (biotic) variables were related to species and functional type richness. Results Species richness varied between 16 and 54 across sites. We found that species and functional type richness were related to both macroclimate and ecohydrology, but ecohydrology explained slightly more variation than climate. Biotic variables were always secondary to macroclimate and ecohydrology in our models. Variance partitioning revealed that large portions of variability in species (~54%), forb (~47%), and grass (~40%) richness were explained by ecohydrological variables. Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of the spatial and temporal distribution of soil water for dryland plant species richness and suggest that documenting the ways in which climate, vegetation, and soil properties interact to determine soil water availability is critical for understanding biodiversity patterns in dryland plant communities. This work has relevance for other mid‐latitude, shrub‐dominated dryland plant communities where soil water availability strongly influences ecosystem structure and function.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Changes in behavior are unable to disrupt a trophic cascade involving a specialist herbivore and its food plant

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes in behavior and demography of wild organisms, which in turn may influence population dynamics. Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nesting in colonies on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since the turn of the century. Pacific black brant are herbivores that rely heavily on Carex subspathacea (Hoppner’s sedge) during growth and development. The availability of C. subspathacea affects gosling growth rates, which subsequently affect pre- and post-fledging survival, as well as size and breeding probability as an adult. We predicted that long-term declines in C. subspathacea have affected gosling growth rates, despite the potential of behavior to buffer changes in food availability during brood rearing. We used Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects models to examine long-term (1987 – 2015) shifts in brant behavior during brood-rearing, forage availability, and gosling growth rates at the Tutakoke River colony. We showed that locomotion behaviors have increased (β = 0.05, 95% CRI 0.032 – 0.068) while resting behaviors have decreased (β = -0.024, 95% CRI -0.041 – -0.007), potentially in response to long-term shifts in forage availability and brood density. Concurrently, gosling growth rates have decreased substantially (β = -0.096, 95% CRI -0.198 – -0.014) despite shifts in behavior, mirroring long-term declines in the abundance of C. subspathacea (β = -0.194, 95% CRI -0.350 – -0.037). These results have important implications for individual fitness and population viability, where shifts in gosling behavior putatively fail to mitigate long-term declines in forage availability.

Article↗
USGS2013

Convergent responses of nitrogen and phosphorus resorption to nitrogen inputs in a semiarid grassland

Human activities have significantly altered nitrogen (N) availability in most terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences for community composition and ecosystem functioning. Although studies of how changes in N availability affect biodiversity and community composition are relatively common, much less remains known about the effects of N inputs on the coupled biogeochemical cycling of N and phosphorus (P), and still fewer data exist regarding how increased N inputs affect the internal cycling of these two elements in plants. Nutrient resorption is an important driver of plant nutrient economies and of the quality of litter plants produce. Accordingly, resorption patterns have marked ecological implications for plant population and community fitness, as well as for ecosystem nutrient cycling. In a semiarid grassland in northern China, we studied the effects of a wide range of N inputs on foliar nutrient resorption of two dominant grasses, Leymus chinensis and Stipa grandis . After 4 years of treatments, N and P availability in soil and N and P concentrations in green and senesced grass leaves increased with increasing rates of N addition. Foliar N and P resorption significantly decreased along the N addition gradient, implying a resorption-mediated, positive plant–soil feedback induced by N inputs. Furthermore, N : P resorption ratios were negatively correlated with the rates of N addition, indicating the sensitivity of plant N and P stoichiometry to N inputs. Taken together, the results demonstrate that N additions accelerate ecosystem uptake and turnover of both N and P in the temperate steppe and that N and P cycles are coupled in dynamic ways. The convergence of N and P resorption in response to N inputs emphasizes the importance of nutrient resorption as a pathway by which plants and ecosystems adjust in the face of increasing N availability.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2025

National seed strategy for rehabilitation and restoration progress report 2022 & 2023: Handout

Restoring healthy, resilient, biodiverse ecosystems is crucial for our Nation’s future. Native plant communities provide essential environmental benefits, such as buffering against extreme weather, improving air, soil, and water quality, and habitat for wildlife. However, the limited availability of locally adapted native plants hampers effective ecological restoration. To address this need, the Plant Conservation Alliance released the National Seed Strategy in 2015 to foster coordination to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration on public, Tribal, state, and private lands. Developing and using native seeds nurtures a growing restoration economy that creates jobs, stimulates rural economies, and reduces risks from environmental hazards.

Report↗
USGS2022

A quantitative soil-geomorphic framework for developing and mapping ecological site groups

Land management decisions need context about how landscapes will respond to different circumstances or actions. As ecologists’ understanding of nonlinear ecological dynamics has evolved into state-and-transition models (STMs), they have put more emphasis on defining and mapping the soil, geomorphological, and climate parameters that mediate these dynamics. The US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service ecological site descriptions (ESDs) have become the foremost system in classifying lands into ecological units based on STMs. However, an exhaustive inventory of ESDs has proved challenging to complete in the United States, and there have been questions about the consistency of detail in areas completed and the ability to objectively support some assertions made in existing ESDs. To address these issues, this study examines ESDs in the diverse Upper Colorado River region, where ESDs are only partially complete, to look at quantitative approaches to generalizing ecological site concepts based on unifying underlying soil, geomorphology, and climate patterns. Using existing ESDs and vegetation monitoring plot data, results show that a simple hierarchical soil geomorphic unit (SGU) framework based on topographic mediation of moisture, soil salinity, soil depth, slope, rock content, and soil texture can represent much of the ecological dynamics cataloged in ESDs. Analyses of reference plant production data, ecological state attribution, and regional monitoring data show that the new SGUs represent more variation than common climate parameters. This study also included predictively mapping SGUs at 30-m resolution (Kappa of 0.53, 74% agreement with top two predictions in validation). An optimized combination of SGUs with climate zones derived from an aridity index and maximum temperature of the hottest month resulted in an ecological site group framework that condensed over 826 unique ecological site records at various stages of completeness in the regional soil survey down to 35 intuitive and mappable ecological site groups.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2018

Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r 2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20–25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape

Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass ( Cenchrus ciliaris ) in Saguaro National Park, AZ, USA over a 30-year period. The simulation models forecast the potential extent and impact of a buffelgrass invasion including size and frequency of fire events and displacement of saguaro cacti and other native species. Using simulation models allowed us to evaluate how model uncertainties affected forecasted landscape outcomes. We compared scenarios covering a range of parameter uncertainties including model initialization (landscape susceptibility to invasion) and expert-identified ecological uncertainties (buffelgrass patch infill rates and precipitation). Our simulations showed substantial differences in the amount of buffelgrass on the landscape and the size and frequency of fires for dry years with slow patch infill scenarios compared to wet years with fast patch infill scenarios. We identified uncertainty in buffelgrass patch infill rates as a key area for research to improve forecasts. Our approach could be used to investigate novel processes in other invaded systems.

Scientific Reports↗