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USGS2007

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular↗
USGS2000

The 1995-1999 Summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 5-yr period 1995-1999 and the 2-yr period 1998-1999. These short-term changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-1999 interval. During 1995-1999, 44% of all species exhibited positive trends over the entire survey area, while 44% of all species exhibited positive trends during 1998-1999; neither of these percentages differed significantly from 50%. The continental and regional percentages of species with positive trends were also analyzed for 12 species groups having shared life-history traits. Survey-wide for the entire survey period, grassland birds exhibited the lowest percentage of increasing species (19%). However, during 1995-1999 the declines were less extreme in the Central and Western BBS regions, with 49% and 36% of species increasing in these regions. Neotropical migrants continued to fare better than grassland birds in all regions, although in the Eastern BBS region only 30% of neotropical species had increasing trends during 1995-1999.

Bird Populations↗
USGS2007

The 1999-2003 Summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 5-yr period 1999-2003 and the 2-yr period 2002-2003. These short-term changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-2003 interval. During 1999-2003, 41% of all species exhibited positive trends over the entire survey area, while 64% of all species exhibited positive change between 2002-2003. The continental and regional percentages of species with positive trends were also analyzed for 12 species groups having shared life-history traits. Survey-wide for the entire survey period, grassland birds exhibited the lowest percentage of increasing species (14%), with their sharpest declines occurring in the West during 1999-2003 (10% increasing). During 1999-2003, short-distance migrants experienced significant declines in all regions, where numbers of species with increasing trends ranged from 22% - 34%. Most species fared well during the 2002-2003 period, with 64% (P < 0.05) increasing survey-wide. This was primarily a result of increases in the Central and Western BBS regions where 21 of 24 species groups exhibited significant increases in the number of species with positive trends.

Bird Populations↗
USGS2010

The 2003-2008 summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 6-yr period 2003-2008 and the 2-yr period 2007-2008. These short-term changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-2008 interval. Across the entire survey area, a higher proportion of species exhibited positive growth during 2003-2008 (64%) than during the long-term (46%) or the more recent 2-yr-term (39%). The 2003-2008 growth occurred relatively evenly across the Western, Central, and Eastern BBS regions, with 59%, 66%, and 61% of all species increasing, respectively. We additionally evaluated the proportion of species with positive trend estimates in each of 12 life-history based groupings at continental and regional levels. Survey-wide, birds in the grassland guild demonstrated the lowest proportion of positive trends over the entire survey period (21% increasing), with significant declines occurring in both the Eastern and Western regions (5% increasing and 18% increasing, respectively). Birds in the wetland breeding guild exhibited the greatest proportion of positive trends, with a significant number of increasing species (between 77-90%) occurring in all three BBS regions during 2003-2008.

Bird Populations↗
USGS2017

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part of the continent, on routes that fall outside the core survey area presently analyzed in the United States and southern Canada. Other species not historically analyzed occur in the core survey area with very limited data but have large portions of their ranges in Mexico and south. A third group of species not historically analyzed included species thought to be poorly surveyed by the BBS, such as rare, coastal, or nocturnal species. For 56 species found primarily in regions north of the core survey area, we expanded the scope of the analysis, using data from 1993 to 2014 during which ≥3 survey routes had been sampled in 6 northern strata (Bird Conservation regions in Alaska, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador) and fitting log-linear hierarchical models for an augmented BBS survey area that included both the new northern strata and the core survey area. We also applied this model to 168 species historically analyzed in the BBS that had data from these additional northern strata. For both groups of species we calculated survey-wide trends for the both core and augmented survey areas from 1993 to 2014; for species that did not occur in the newly defined strata, we computed trends from 1966 to 2014. We evaluated trend estimates in terms of established credibility criteria for BBS results, screening for imprecise trends, small samples, and low relative abundance. Inclusion of data from the northern strata permitted estimation of trend for 56 species not historically analyzed, but only 4 of these were reasonably monitored and an additional 13 were questionably monitored; 39 of these species were likely poorly monitored because of small numbers of samples or very imprecisely estimated trends. Only 4 of 66 “new” species found in the core survey area were reasonably monitored by the BBS; 20 were questionably monitored; and 42 were likely poorly monitored by the BBS because of inefficiency in precision, abundance, or sample size. The hierarchical analyses we present provide a means for reasonable inclusion of the additional species and strata in a common analysis with data from the core area, a critical step in the evolution of the BBS as a continent-scale survey. We recommend that results be presented both 1) from 1993 to the present using the expanded survey area, and 2) from 1966 to the present for the core survey area. Although most of the “new” species we analyzed were poorly monitored by the BBS during 1993–2014, continued expansion of the BBS will improve the quality of information in future analyses for these species and for the many other species presently monitored by the BBS.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS1993

North American Breeding Bird Survey annual summary 1990-1991

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations during 1989-1990 and 1990-1991, placing these short-term changes within the context of population trends since 1966. For the entire survey area, 51.7% of the species exhibited increases in population size during 1989-1990, reversing the decreasing tendency exhibited by the majority of species during 1988-1989. A similar percentage (51.4%) of species with increasing populations was noted during 1990-1991. These percentages were also analyzed for 12 guilds of North American birds and 3 broad geographical regions. Many regional patterns exist in these population changes, reflecting the variability inherent in short-term population fluctuations. Two-year (1989-1990 and 1990-1991) changes and long-term (1966-1990) continental trends are provided for 255 species.

Bird Populations↗
USGS1989

North American Breeding Bird Survey Annual Summary, 1988

Introduction: The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is run by approximately 2,000 skilled amateur ornithologists, and is coordinated cooperatively by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Beginning in 1966, BBS cooperators have been collecting standardized information on North American bird populations. The BBS is a roadside survey, comprised of permanent routes that are surveyed yearly. Each route is 39.4 km (24.5 miles) long and consists of 50 stops spaced 0.8 km (0.5 mile) apart. All birds heard or seen during a 3-min observation period at each stop are recorded, and the sum of the individual stops for each species is used as an index of species density on the route. In this report, we present the population changes of the 222 bird species reported on > 50 BBS routes during 1987 and 1988. Population trends for 1966-87 are presented for comparison. Owing to space constraints, trends are not reported for States, Provinces, or physiographic regions. Instead, we present maps illustrating patterns of population change for selected species, and summarize State and physiographic strata patterns of population change as the proportion of species that increased in each region. Detailed State, Provincial, and physiographic strata changes arc available to interested readers.

Biological Report↗
USGS2013

The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary analysis and species accounts

The North American Breeding Bird Survey is a roadside, count-based survey conducted by volunteer observers. Begun in 1966, it now is a primary source of information on spatial and temporal patterns of population change for North American birds. We analyze population change for states, provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and the entire survey within the contiguous United States and southern Canada for 426 species using a hierarchical log-linear model that controls for observer effects in counting. We also map relative abundance and population change for each species using a spatial smoothing of data at the scale of survey routes. We present results in accounts that describe major breeding habitats, migratory status, conservation status, and population trends for each species at several geographic scales. We also present composite results for groups of species categorized by habitats and migratory status. The survey varies greatly among species in percentage of species' range covered and precision of results, but consistent patterns of decline occur among eastern forest, grassland, and aridland obligate birds while generalist bird species are increasing.

North American Fauna↗
USGS1981

The North American Breeding Bird Survey

A brief history of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and a discussion of the technique are presented. The approximately 2000 random roadside routes conducted yearly during the breeding season throughout North America produce an enormous bank of data on distribution and abundance of breeding birds with great potential use. Data on about one million total birds of 500 species per year are on computer tape to facilitate accessibility and are available to any serious investigator. The BBS includes the advantages of wide geographic coverage, sampling of most habitat types, standardization of data collection, and a relatively simple format. The Survey is limited by placement of roads (e.g., marshes and rugged mountainous areas are not well sampled), traffic noise interference in some cases and preference of some bird species for roadside habitats. These and other problems and biases of the BBS are discussed. The uniformity of the technique allows for detecting changes in populations and for creation of maps of relative abundance. Examples of each are presented.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to model selection. Here, we discuss and illustrate model selection using leave-one-out cross validation, and the Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion (BPIC). Cross-validation is enormously computationally intensive; we thus evaluate the performance of the Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) as a computationally efficient approximation to the BPIC. Our evaluation is based on analyses of 4 models as applied to 20 species covered by the BBS. Model selection based on BPIC provided no strong evidence of one model being consistently superior to the others; for 14/20 species, none of the models emerged as superior. For the remaining 6 species, a first-difference model of population trajectory was always among the best fitting. Our results show that WAIC is not reliable as a surrogate for BPIC. Development of appropriate model sets and their evaluation using BPIC is an important innovation for the analysis of BBS data.

Condor↗
USGS1997

Population trends of black terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. The long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

Colonial Waterbirds↗
USGS1997

Population trends of Black Terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicate a survey-wide decline in Black Terns (Chlidonias niger) at an average rate of 3.1% annually during 1966-1996. Black Terns in Canada decreased at an average annual rate of 3.5% during this interval, while the United States population showed no significant trends. These long-term declines largely reflect trends prior to 1980, when the continental, Canadian, and United States populations decreased at average annual rates of 7.5%, 5.6%, and 11.9%, respectively. Most population trends were reversed during the 1990s, causing trend estimates over the 1980-1996 interval to become more positive. Associations between patterns of change in Black Terns, Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and numbers of ponds in the northern Great Plains suggest some relationships exist between habitat availability and the population trajectories.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2019

The effects of management practices on grassland birds—Rates of Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism in nests of North American grassland birds

The Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) is an obligate brood parasite that relies entirely on host species to incubate its eggs and rear its young. The Brown-headed Cowbird is a host generalist; eggs of the cowbird have been found in nests of more than 220 species of North American birds. Although cowbirds are not considered a serious threat to their primary avian hosts, cowbird brood parasitism has been recognized as a potential threat to the survival of threatened and endangered species and has been implicated in the declines of other bird species through reduced reproductive output. In this chapter, we summarized the rates of cowbird brood parasitism for 40 grassland bird species. The reported rates of brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds varied considerably among and within grassland host species, and the factors that influence parasitism rates were described. Defenses possessed by cowbird hosts in grasslands include aggressively defending their nests against female cowbirds, egg rejection, desertion of parasitized nests, and burying cowbird eggs in the nest lining.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2011

Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models

We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the results with those obtained through route-regression analysis. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were generally more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in the magnitude of trends between the analysis methods. Survey-wide trend estimates changed substantially for 15 species between route-regression and hierarchical-model analyses. We compared regional estimates for states, provinces, and Bird Conservation Regions; differences observed in these regional analyses are likely a consequence of the route-regression procedure's inadequate accommodation of temporal differences in survey effort. We used species-specific hierarchical-model results to estimate composite change for groups of birds associated with major habitats and migration types. Grassland, aridland, and eastern-forest-obligate bird species declined, whereas urban—suburban species increased over the interval 1968–2008. No migration status group experienced significant changes, although Nearctic—Neotropical migrant species showed intervals of decline and permanent resident species increased almost 20% during the interval. Hierarchical-model results better portrayed patterns of population change over time than route-regression results. We recommend use of hierarchical models for BBS analyses.

North America↗
USGS2021

The North American Breeding Bird Survey in Mexico, 2008 to 2018—A status report

Collection of avian population data has repeatedly been identified as a high priority for bird conservation in Mexico. To meet this need, in 2008 the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), a volunteer-based survey, was expanded to include northern Mexico. The BBS in Mexico (Mexican BBS) is managed by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI), Mexico’s National Coordination Office inside the Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO). During 2008–18, 252 surveys were conducted along 68 routes in Mexico, with geographic coverage varying from year to year. Of these 68 routes, 36 were surveyed three or more times. Thirty-one observers conducted the surveys, and 21 of these observers conducted two or more surveys. Just two observers conducted more than one-third of the 252 surveys, and both observers were paid to conduct the surveys. The low availability of local observers who are qualified, willing, and able to volunteer their services to conduct BBS surveys may prove to be the biggest obstacle to the success of the Mexican BBS program, especially in the context of Mexico’s ongoing safety and security concerns. Apart from the amount of data collected, many surveys did not adhere to pre-established quality-control requirements, and this would result in the exclusion of a large percentage of the data from potential trend analyses. Only 31 percent of the surveys met all the quality-control criteria. Additional observer training may help resolve this issue. Of greater concern is the selection of region-specific sampling date windows during which the surveys are conducted. Observers consistently conducted surveys outside the preliminarily prescribed sampling date window, reflecting the need to re-evaluate the regional appropriateness of this date window. Regardless of the quality of the data, the quantity of data available from 2008 to 2018 is insufficient for trend analysis using methods typically employed by U.S. Geological Survey BBS analysts. Reaching minimum sample size thresholds for statistical analysis will require a substantial increase in effort. During 2008–18, no strata (defined as the intersection of State and Bird Conservation Region boundaries) reached the suggested minimum of 14 sampled routes, and most routes were not run consistently. This report provides information needed for an evaluation of the merits of continuing to invest in the Mexican BBS program in its current form. Such an evaluation should consider the likelihood of achieving the primary project goal of producing reliable long-term population trend estimates, a projected timeline for meeting this goal, and include an assessment of the potential value of any additional data products.

Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, C↗
USGS1977

Bird population trends detected by the North American breeding bird survey

Continental populations of most bird species have remained quite stable since 1966, but there have been many regional changes associated with migration disasters, breeding failures and range expansions, and a few dramatic increases in populations of introduced species. These changes often are better represented by curvilinear than by linear regressions.

Polish Ecological Studies↗
USGS1985

A search for stability gradients in North American breeding bird communities

To search for the existence of stability gradients in North American breeding land bird communities we operationally defined stability (after Jarvinen 1979) as year-to-year persistence in species composition and distribution of species abundances. From the census data for 174 study plots we derived nine indices that estimate the annual variability of species composition, the species abundance distribution, diversity, and breeding density. The resulting matrix of study plot by stability indices was used to estimate the correlation structure of the stability indices. The correlation matrix was, in turn, subjected to a principal components analysis to derive synthetic gradients of variation. We then searched for patterns of variation in these stability gradients associated with either geographic location or habitat type. Three independent principal component axes reproduced most of the variation in the initial data and were interpreted as gradients of variation in species turnover, diversity, and breeding abundance. Thus, the annual stability of community structure apparently responds independently to species and abundance variation. Despite the clarity of the derived gradients, few patterns emerged when the plots were ordinated by either habitat or geographic location. In general, grasslands showed greater annual variation in diversity than forested habitats, and, for some habitats, northern communities were less stable than more southern communities. However, few of these patterns were very strong, and we interpret them cautiously.

The Auk↗
USGS1994

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

The mourning dove ( Zenaida macrour a) Call-count Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ ( P < 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

continental United States↗