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Observed source parameters for dynamic rupture with non-uniform initial stressand relatively high fracture energy

We have conducted dynamic rupture propagation experiments to establish the relations between in-source stress drop, fracture energy and the resulting particle velocity during slip of an unconfined 2 m long laboratory fault at normal stresses between 4 and 8 MPa. To produce high fracture energy in the source we use a rough fault that has a large slip weakening distance. An artifact of the high fracture energy is that the nucleation zone is large such that precursory slip reduces fault strength over a large fraction of the total fault length prior to dynamic rupture, making the initial stress non-uniform. Shear stress, particle velocity, fault slip and acceleration were recorded coseismically at multiple locations along strike and at small fault-normal distances. Stress drop increases weakly with normal stress. Average slip rate depends linearly on the fault strength loss and on static stress drop, both with a nonzero intercept. A minimum fracture energy of 1.8 J/m 2 and a linear slip weakening distance of 33 μm are inferred from the intercept. The large slip weakening distance also affects the average slip rate which is reduced by in-source energy dissipation from on-fault fracture energy. Because of the low normal stress and small per event slip (∼86 μm), no thermal weakening such as melting or pore fluid pressurization occurs in these experiments. Despite the relatively high fracture energy, and the very low heat production, energy partitioning during these laboratory earthquakes is very similar to typical earthquake source properties. The product of fracture energy and fault area is larger than the radiated energy. Seismic efficiency is low at ∼2%. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop is ∼27%, consistent with measured overshoot. The fracture efficiency is ∼33%. The static and dynamic stress drops when extrapolated to crustal stresses are 2–7.3 MPa and in the range of typical earthquake stress drops. As the relatively high fracture energy reduces the slip velocities in these experiments, the extrapolated average particle velocities for crustal stresses are 0.18–0.6 m/s. That these experiments are consistent with typical earthquake source properties suggests, albeit indirectly, that thermal weakening mechanisms such as thermal pressurization and melting which lead to near complete stress drops, dominate earthquake source properties only for exceptional events unless crustal stresses are low.

Journal of Structural Geology↗

Numerical analysis of seawater circulation in carbonate platforms: I. Geothermal convection

Differences in fluid density between cold ocean water and warm ground water can drive the circulation of seawater through carbonate platforms. The circulating water can be the major source of dissolved constituents for diagenetic reactions such as dolomitization. This study was undertaken to investigate the conditions under which such circulation can occur and to determine which factors control both the flux and the patterns of fluid circulation and temperature distribution, given the expected ranges of those factors in nature. Results indicate that the magnitude and distribution of permeability within a carbonate platform are the most important parameters. Depending on the values of horizontal and vertical permeability, heat transport within a platform can occur by one of three mechanisms: conduction, forced convection, or free convection. Depth-dependent relations for porosity and permeability in carbonate platforms suggest circulation may decrease rapidly with depth. The fluid properties of density and viscosity are controlled primarily by their dependency on temperature. The bulk thermal conductivity of the rocks within the platform affects the conductive regime to some extent, especially if evaporite minerals are present within the section. Platform geometry has only a second-order effect on circulation. The relative position of sealevel can create surface conditions that range from exposed (with a fresh-water lens present) to shallow water (with hypersaline conditions created by evaporation in constricted flow conditions) to submerged or drowned (with free surface water circulation), but these boundary conditions and associated ocean temperature profiles have only a second-order effect on fluid circulation. Deep, convective circulation can be caused by horizon tal temperature gradients and can occur even at depths below the ocean bottom. Temperature data from deep holes in the Florida and Bahama platforms suggest that geothermal circulation is actively occurring today to depths as great as several kilometers.

American Journal of Science↗

Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters of a steep catchment

Debris flows can dramatically increase their volume, and hence their destructive potential, by entraining sediment. Yet quantitative constraints on rates and mechanics of sediment entrainment by debris flows are limited. Using an in situ sensor network in the headwaters of a natural catchment we measured flow and bed properties during six erosive debris-flow events. Despite similar flow properties and thicknesses of bed sediment entrained across all events, time-averaged entrainment rates were significantly faster for bed sediment that was saturated prior to flow arrival compared with rates for sediment that was dry. Bed sediment was entrained from the sediment-surface downward in a progressive fashion and occurred during passage of dense granular fronts as well as water-rich, inter-surge flow. En masse failure of bed sediment along the sediment-bedrock interface was never observed. Large-magnitude, high-frequency fluctuations in total normal basal stress were dissipated within the upper 5 cm of bed sediment. Within this near surface layer, concomitant fluctuations in Coulomb frictional resistance are expected, irrespective of the influence of pore fluid pressure or fluctuations in shear stress. If the near-surface sediment was wet as it was overridden by a flow, additional large-magnitude, high-frequency pore pressure fluctuations were measured in the near-surface bed sediment. These pore pressure fluctuations propagated to depth at subsonic rates and in a diffusive manner. The depth to which large excess pore pressures propagated was typically less than 10 cm, but scaled as ( D / f i ) 0.5 , in which D is the hydraulic diffusivity and f i is the frequency of a particular pore pressure fluctuation. Shallow penetration depths of granular-normal-stress fluctuations and excess pore pressures demonstrate that only near-surface bed sediment experiences the full dynamic range of effective-stress fluctuations, and as a result, can be more easily entrained than deeper sediment. These data provide robust tests for mechanical models of entrainment and demonstrate that a debris flow over wet bed sediment will be larger than the same flow over dry bed sediment.

Colorado↗

New constraints on mechanisms of remotely triggered seismicity at Long Valley Caldera

Regional-scale triggering of local earthquakes in the crust by seismic waves from distant main shocks has now been robustly documented for over a decade. Some of the most thoroughly recorded examples of repeated triggering of a single site from multiple, large earthquakes are measured in geothermal fields of the western United States like Long Valley Caldera. As one of the few natural cases where the causality of an earthquake sequence is apparent, triggering provides fundamental constraints on the failure processes in earthquakes. We show here that the observed triggering by seismic waves is inconsistent with any mechanism that depends on cumulative shaking as measured by integrated energy density. We also present evidence for a frequency-dependent triggering threshold. On the basis of the seismic records of 12 regional and teleseismic events recorded at Long Valley Caldera, long-period waves (>30 s) are more effective at generating local seismicity than short-period waves of comparable amplitude. If the properties of the system are stationary over time, the failure threshold for long-period waves is ~0.05 cm/s vertical shaking. Assuming a phase velocity of 3.5 km/s and an elastic modulus of 3.5 x 10 10 Pa, the threshold in terms of stress is 5 kPa. The frequency dependence is due in part to the attenuation of the surface waves with depth. Fluid flow through a porous medium can produce the rest of the observed frequency dependence of the threshold. If the threshold is not stationary with time, pore pressures that are >99.5% of lithostatic and vary over time by a factor of 4 could explain the observations with no frequency dependence of the triggering threshold.

California↗

An eddy-resolving numerical model to study turbulent flow, sediment and bed evolution using detached eddy simulation in a lateral separation zone at the field-scale

Turbulence-resolving simulations elucidate key elements of fluid dynamics and sediment transport in fluvial environments. This research presents a feasible strategy for applying state-of-the-art computational fluid mechanics to the study of sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in lateral separation zones, which are common features in canyon rivers where massive lateral flow separation causes large-scale turbulence that controls sediment erosion and deposition. An eddy-resolving model was developed and tested at the field-scale, coupling a viscous flow and sediment transport solver using Detached Eddy Simulation techniques. A morphodynamic model was applied to the viscous flow/sediment solver to calculate erosion and deposition. A simulation of turbulence was performed at the grid resolution for a straight channel to determine the relative contributions of modeled and resolved diffusivity. The time-dependent, energetically important, correlative, non-stationary signals of the simulated quantities were captured at the lateral separation zone. Strong periodic signals featured by high amplitude were found at the separation zone, while low frequency pulsations were observed at the reattachment zone of the lateral separation zone. Interactions between the eddies and the loose bed boundaries resulted in erosion of sediment at the main channel followed by deposition at the primary eddy and eddy bars. tions elucidate key elements of fluid dynamics and sediment transport in fluvial environments. This research presents a feasible strategy for applying state-of-the-art computational fluid mechanics to the study of sediment transport and morphodynamic processes in lateral separation zones, which are common features in canyon rivers where massive lateral flow separation causes large-scale turbulence that controls sediment erosion and deposition. An eddy-resolving model was developed and tested at the field scale, coupling viscous flow and sediment transport solver using Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) techniques. A morphodynamic model was applied to the viscous flow/sediment solver to calculate erosion and deposition. A simulation of turbulence was performed at the grid resolution for a straight channel to determine the relative contributions of modeled and resolved diffusivity. The time-dependent, energetically important, correlative non-stationary signals of the simulated quantities were captured at the lateral separation zone. Strong periodic signals featured by high amplitude were found at the separation zone, while low frequency pulsations were observed at the reattachment zone of the lateral separation zone. Interactions between the eddies and the loose bed boundaries resulted in massive erosion of sediment at the main channel followed by deposition at the primary eddy and eddy bars.

Arizona↗

The Fish Canyon magma body, San Juan volcanic field, Colorado: Rejuvenation and eruption of an upper-crustal batholith

More than 5000 km 3 of nearly compositionally homogeneous crystal-rich dacite (∼68 wt % SiO 2 : ∼45% Pl + Kfs + Qtz + Hbl + Bt + Spn + Mag + Ilm + Ap + Zrn + Po) erupted from the Fish Canyon magma body during three phases: (1) the pre-caldera Pagosa Peak Dacite (an unusual poorly fragmented pyroclastic deposit, ∼200 km 3 ); (2) the syn-collapse Fish Canyon Tuff (one of the largest known ignimbrites, ∼5000 km 3 ); (3) the post-collapse Nutras Creek Dacite (a volumetrically minor lava). The late evolution of the Fish Canyon magma is characterized by rejuvenation of a near-solidus upper-crustal intrusive body (mainly crystal mush) of batholithic dimensions. The necessary thermal input was supplied by a shallow intrusion of more mafic magma represented at the surface by sparse andesitic enclaves in late-erupted Fish Canyon Tuff and by the post-caldera Huerto Andesite. The solidified margins of this intrusion are represented by holocrystalline xenoliths with Fish Canyon mineralogy and mineral chemistry and widely dispersed partially remelted polymineralic aggregates, but dehydration melting was not an important mechanism in the rejuvenation of the Fish Canyon magma. Underlying mafic magma may have evolved H 2 O–F–S–Cl-rich fluids that fluxed melting in the overlying crystal mush. Manifestations of the late up-temperature magma evolution are: (1) resorbed quartz, as well as feldspars displaying a wide spectrum of textures indicative of both resorption and growth, including Rapakivi textures and reverse growth zoning (An 27–28 to An 32–33 ) at the margins of many plagioclase phenocrysts; (2) high Sr, Ba, and Eu contents in the high-SiO 2 rhyolite matrix glass, which are inconsistent with extreme fractional crystallization of feldspar; (3) oscillatory and reverse growth zoning toward the margins of many euhedral hornblende phenocrysts (rimward increases from ∼5·5–6 to 7·7–8·5 wt % Al 2 O 3 ). Homogeneity in magma composition at the chamber-wide scale, contrasting with extreme textural and chemical complexities at the centimeter–millimeter scale, is consistent with a dynamic environment, wherein crystals with a variety of growth and resorption histories were juxtaposed shortly before eruption by convective currents.

Colorado↗

Long-period events, the most characteristic seismicity accompanying the emplacement and extrusion of a lava dome in Galeras Volcano, Colombia, in 1991

Since its reactivation in 1988 the principal eruptions of Galeras Volcano occurred on May 4-9, 1989, July 16, 1992, and January 14, March 23, April 3, April 14 and June 7, 1993. The initial eruption was a phreatic event which clearly marked a new period of activity. A lava dome was extruded within the main crater in October 1991 and subsequently destroyed in an explosive eruption on July 16, 1992. The eruptions that followed were all vulcanian-type explosions. The seismicity accompanying the emplacement, extrusion, and destruction of the lava dome was dominated by a mix of long-period (LP) events and tremor displaying a variety of waveforms. Repetitive LP events with dominant periods in the range 0.2-1 s were observed in October and November 1991 and visually correlated with short energetic pulses of gas venting through a crack bisecting the dome surface. Each LP event was characterized by a weak precursory signal with dominant periods in the range 0.05-0.1 s lasting roughly 7 s. Using the fluid-driven crack model of Chouet (1988, 1992), we infer that two distinct cracks may have acted as sources for the LP and precursor signals. Spectral analyses of the data yield the following parameters for the LP source: crack length, 240-360 m; crack width, 130-150 m; crack aperture, 0.5-3.4 mm; crack stiffness, 100-500; sound speed of fluid, 880 m/s; and excess pressure, 0.01-0.19 MPa. Similar analyses yield the parameters of the precursor source: crack length, 20-30 m; crack width, 15-25 m; crack aperture, 2.3-8.7 mm; crack stiffness, 5-15; sound speed of fluid, 140 m/s; and excess pressure, 0.06-0.15 MPa. Combined with geologic and thermodynamic constraints obtained from field observations, these seismic parameters suggest a gas-release mechanism in which the episodic collapse of a foam layer trapped at the top of the magma column subjacent to the dome releases a slug of pressurized gas which escapes to the surface while dilating a preexisting system of cracks in the dome structure. Accordingly, the fracture observed on the crystallized dome body is the surface extension of the LP-source crack, where LP activity is induced by the rapid emission and expansion of gas flowing through this conduit. The width and aperture of the crack estimated in the model are in good agreement with the length and aperture of the fracture estimated from visual observations. The source parameters of the precursor signal are suggestive of a nozzle-like conduit connecting the LP-source crack to the underlying magma reservoir. Excitation of this conduit segment is attributed to the rapid emission and acceleration of the frothy fluid resulting from the collapse of the foam layer at the top of the reservoir. The calculated periodicity of foam collapse events is in agreement with the observed average rate of thirteen LP events per hour.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Spatial distribution of damage around faults in the Joe Lott Tuff Member of the Mount Belknap Volcanics, Utah: A mechanical analog for faulting in pyroclastic deposits on Mars

Volcanic ash is thought to comprise a large fraction of the Martian equatorial layered deposits and much new insight into the process of faulting and related fluid flow in these deposits can be gained through the study of analogous terrestrial tuffs. This study identifies a set of fault-related processes that are pertinent to understanding the evolution of fault systems in fine-grained, poorly indurated volcanic ash by investigating exposures of faults in the Miocene-aged Joe Lott Tuff Member of the Mount Belknap Volcanics, Utah. The porosity and granularity of the host rock are found to control the style of localized strain that occurs prior to and contemporaneous with faulting. Deformation bands occur in tuff that was porous and granular at the time of deformation, while fractures formed where the tuff lost its porous and granular nature due to silicic alteration. Non-localized deformation of the host rock is also prominent and occurs through compaction of void space, including crushing of pumice clasts. Significant off-fault damage of the host rock, resembling fault pulverization, is recognized adjacent to one analog fault and may reflect the strain rate dependence of the resulting fault zone architecture. These findings provide important new guidelines for future structural analyses and numerical modeling of faulting and subsurface fluid flow through volcanic ash deposits on Mars.

Utah↗

Groundwater contamination downstream of a contaminant penetration site. I. Extension-expansion of the contaminant plume

This study concerns the possible use of boundary layer (BL) approach for the analysis and evaluation of contaminant transport in groundwater due to contaminant penetration into the groundwater aquifer through a site of limited size. The contaminant penetration may occur through either the upper (surface) or lower (bedrock) boundary of the aquifer. Two general cases of contaminant penetration mechanisms are considered: (1) the contaminant is transferred through an interface between a contaminating and freshwater fluid phases, and (2) the contaminant arrives at groundwater by leakage and percolation. For the purpose of BL evaluation the contaminant plume is divided into three different sections: (1) the penetration section, (2) the extension-expansion section, and (3) the spearhead section. In each section a different BL method approach yields simple analytical expressions for the description of the contaminant plume migration and contaminant transport. Previous studies of the BL method can be directly applied to the evaluation of contaminant transport at the contaminant penetration section. The present study extends those studies and concerns the contaminant transport in the two other sections, which are located downstream of the penetration section. This study shows that the contaminant concentration profiles in sections 2 and 3 incorporate two BLs: (1) an inner BL adjacent to the aquifer bottom or surface boundary, and (2) an outer BL, which develops above or below the inner one. The method developed in the present study has been applied to practical issues concerning salinity penetration into groundwater in south central Kansas.

Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part↗

Assessing seasonal changes in microgravity at Yellowstone caldera

Microgravity time series at active volcanoes can provide an indication of mass change related to subsurface magmatic processes, but uncertainty is often introduced by hydrologic variations and other noise sources that cannot easily be isolated. We empirically assessed seasonality and noise by conducting four surveys over the course of May-October 2017 at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming. Yellowstone experiences frequent changes in the rates and styles of seismicity and surface deformation, but the mechanisms of these changes are poorly understood because the characteristics of the driving fluids are not clear. Past gravity data from the caldera have yielded ambiguous results, possibly due to hydrologic noise. Given the strong visually observable changes in surface water and snow conditions over the course of our surveys, we expected to see significant variations in gravity. The net change in gravity, however, was less than 20 µGal at most sites, and there was no strong correlation with river and lake levels or snow conditions. Seasonal changes in gravity are therefore small compared to those that would be expected from magmatic activity, although they may be on the same order as those associated with Yellowstone’s hydrothermal system. We did find that noise levels in gravity data were highly dependent on site characteristics, with bedrock sites away from trees yielding the lowest levels of noise, and thin concrete pads in forested areas the highest. These results can be used to plan future surveys at Yellowstone and to reinterpret past data, and they provide guidance in terms of best practices for repeat gravity work on volcanoes worldwide.

Wyoming↗

Estimating tectonic history through basin simulation-enhanced seismic inversion: Geoinformatics for sedimentary basins

A data assimilation approach is demonstrated whereby seismic inversion is both automated and enhanced using a comprehensive numerical sedimentary basin simulator to study the physics and chemistry of sedimentary basin processes in response to geothermal gradient in much greater detail than previously attempted. The approach not only reduces costs by integrating the basin analysis and seismic inversion activities to understand the sedimentary basin evolution with respect to geodynamic parameters-but the technique also has the potential for serving as a geoinfomatics platform for understanding various physical and chemical processes operating at different scales within a sedimentary basin. Tectonic history has a first-order effect on the physical and chemical processes that govern the evolution of sedimentary basins. We demonstrate how such tectonic parameters may be estimated by minimizing the difference between observed seismic reflection data and synthetic ones constructed from the output of a reaction, transport, mechanical (RTM) basin model. We demonstrate the method by reconstructing the geothermal gradient. As thermal history strongly affects the rate of RTM processes operating in a sedimentary basin, variations in geothermal gradient history alter the present-day fluid pressure, effective stress, porosity, fracture statistics and hydrocarbon distribution. All these properties, in turn, affect the mechanical wave velocity and sediment density profiles for a sedimentary basin. The present-day state of the sedimentary basin is imaged by reflection seismology data to a high degree of resolution, but it does not give any indication of the processes that contributed to the evolution of the basin or causes for heterogeneities within the basin that are being imaged. Using texture and fluid properties predicted by our Basin RTM simulator, we generate synthetic seismograms. Linear correlation using power spectra as an error measure and an efficient quadratic optimization technique are found to be most effective in determining the optimal value of the tectonic parameters. Preliminary 1-D studies indicate that one can determine the geothermal gradient even in the presence of observation and numerical uncertainties. The algorithm succeeds even when the synthetic data has detailed information only in a limited depth interval and has a different dominant frequency in the synthetic and observed seismograms. The methodology presented here even works when the basin input data contains only 75 per cent of the stratigraphic layering information compared with the actual basin in a limited depth interval.

Geophysical Journal International↗

Olivine friction at the base of oceanic seismogenic zones

We investigate the strength and frictional behavior of olivine aggregates at temperatures and effective confining pressures similar to those at the base of the seismogenic zone on a typical ridge transform fault. Triaxial compression tests were conducted on dry olivine powder (grain size ???60 ??m) at effective confining pressures between 50 and 300 MPa (using Argon as a pore fluid), temperatures between 600??C and 1000??C, and axial displacement rates from 0.06 to 60 ??m/s (axial strain rates from 3 ?? 10-6 to 3 ?? 10-3 s-1). Yielding shows a negative pressure dependence, consistent with predictions for shear enhanced compaction and with the observation that samples exhibit compaction during the initial stages of the experiments. A combination of mechanical data and microstructural observations demonstrate that deformation was accommodated by frictional processes. Sample strengths were pressure-dependent and nearly independent of temperature. Localized shear zones formed in initially homogeneous aggregates early in the experiments. The frictional response to changes in loading rate is well described by rate and state constitutive laws, with a transition from velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening at 1000??C. Microstructural observations and physical models indicate that plastic yielding of asperities at high temperatures and low axial strain rates stabilizes frictional sliding. Extrapolation of our experimental data to geologic strain rates indicates that a transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening occurs at approximately 600??C, consistent with the focal depths of earthquakes in the oceanic lithosphere. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Laboratory triggering of stick-slip events by oscillatory loading in the presence of pore fluid with implications for physics of tectonic tremor

The physical mechanism by which the low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that make up portions of tectonic (also called non-volcanic) tremor are created is poorly understood. In many areas of the world, tectonic tremor and LFEs appear to be strongly tidally modulated, whereas ordinary earthquakes are not. Anomalous seismic wave speeds, interpreted as high pore fluid pressure, have been observed in regions that generate tremor. Here we build upon previous laboratory studies that investigated the response of stick-slip on artificial faults to oscillatory, tide-like loading. These previous experiments were carried out using room-dry samples of Westerly granite, at one effective stress. Here we augment these results with new experiments on Westerly granite, with the addition of varying effective stress using pore fluid at two pressures. We find that raising pore pressure, thereby lowering effective stress can significantly increase the degree of correlation of stick-slip to oscillatory loading. We also find other pore fluid effects that become important at higher frequencies, when the period of oscillation is comparable to the diffusion time of pore fluid into the fault. These results help constrain the conditions at depth that give rise to tidally modulated LFEs, providing confirmation of the effective pressure law for triggering and insights into why tremor is tidally modulated while earthquakes are at best only weakly modulated.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

2D micromodel study of clogging behavior of fine-grained particles associated with gas hydrate production in NGHP-02 gas hydrate reservoir sediments

Fine-grained particles (fines) commonly coexist with coarse-grained sediments that host gas hydrate. These fines can be mobilized by liquid and gas flow during gas hydrate production. Once mobilized, fines can clog pore throats and reduce reservoir permeability. Even where particle sizes are smaller than pore-throat sizes, clogs can form due to clusters of fines. For certain types of fines, particularly swelling clays, cluster sizes depend on pore-fluid chemistry, which changes as pore-fluid freshens during gas hydrate dissociation. Fines can also be concentrated by a moving gas/liquid interface, increasing the chances of pore-throat clogging regardless of fines type. To test the relative significance of these clogging mechanisms, 2D micromodel experiments have been conducted with different pore-throat widths (20, 40, 60 and 100 m), single-phase pore-fluids (deionized water and 2M-sodium-chloride solution), and moving gas/liquid interfaces on specimens from Sites NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16 (NGHP-02: National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02) as well as a selection of pure fines (silica silt, mica, calcium carbonate, diatoms, kaolin, and bentonite). Clogging depended on the ratio of particle-to-pore throat size, and also on pore-fluid chemistry because the pore-fluid chemistry changes effectively increased or decreased the fines cluster size relative to the pore-throat width. These interactions can be predicted based on the fines electrical sensitivity (defined by Jang and Santamarina, 2016). The fine-grained sediment component (grain size < 75 m) from the primary gas hydrate reservoir layers at Sites NGHP-02-09 and -16 show clogging via blocking or size exclusion (sieving) due to the large particles. Clogs also formed due to bridging or blocking by clusters of the smaller particles. Clogging generally occurred for pore-water sediment concentrations so low (0.2% by mass or less), that it was difficult to resolve the enhanced clogging in the presence of the gas/liquid meniscus.

Bay of Bengal↗

Elementary theory of bed-sediment entrainment by debris flows and avalanches

Analyses of mass and momentum exchange between a debris flow or avalanche and an underlying sediment layer aid interpretations and predictions of bed-sediment entrainment rates. A preliminary analysis assesses the behavior of a Coulomb slide block that entrains bed material as it descends a uniform slope. The analysis demonstrates that the block's momentum can grow unstably, even in the presence of limited entrainment efficiency. A more-detailed, depth-integrated continuum analysis of interacting, deformable bodies identifies mechanical controls on entrainment efficiency, and shows that entrainment rates satisfy a jump condition that involves shear-traction and velocity discontinuities at the flow-bed boundary. Explicit predictions of the entrainment rate E result from making reasonable assumptions about flow velocity profiles and boundary shear tractions. For Coulomb-friction tractions, predicted entrainment rates are sensitive to pore fluid pressures that develop in bed sediment as it is overridden. In the simplest scenario the bed sediment liquefies completely, and the entrainment-rate equation reduces to E = 2 μ 1 gh 1 cos θ (1 − λ 1 )/ , where θ is the slope angle, μ 1 is the flow's Coulomb friction coefficient, h 1 is its thickness, λ 1 is its degree of liquefaction, and is its depth-averaged velocity. For values of λ 1 ranging from 0.5 to 0.8, this equation predicts entrainment rates consistent with rates of 0.05 to 0.1 m/s measured in large-scale debris-flow experiments in which wet sediment beds liquefied almost completely. The propensity for bed liquefaction depends on several factors, including sediment porosity, permeability, and thickness, and rates of compression and shear deformation that occur when beds are overridden.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Well predictive performance of play-wide and Subarea Random Forest models for Bakken productivity

In recent years, geologists and petroleum engineers have struggled to clearly identify the mechanisms that drive productivity in horizontal, hydraulically-fractured oil wells producing from the middle member of the Bakken formation. This paper fills a gap in the literature by showing how this play’s heterogeneity affects factors that drive well productivity. It is important because understanding the relative strength of productivity drivers and how predictors vary spatially facilitates best-practices for well site selection and well completion design. The paper describes an application of the Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique to identify these mechanisms and to evaluate their importance across 9 subareas of the North Dakota portion of the Bakken play. The study examined productivity of 7311 wells initiating production from 2010 through 2017. Well productivity varied considerably across the 9 subareas within the play, so it was not surprising that the dominant predictors, the initial 180-day water cut and the 30-day initial gas production, vary spatially to mirror local conditions that strongly affect well productivity. The relative importance of well completion predictor variables, that is, the numbers of fractures stages per well, volume of injected proppant per stage, volume of injected fluids per stage, and lateral length, varied considerably across the subareas. Statistical permutation tests are presented that generally confirm the importance rankings. Subarea Random Forest models explained from 50 percent to 82 percent of the variation in productivity test samples while the play-wide model explained 73 percent of the test sample well productivity. Weakness in the predictive ability of the Random Forest models are traced to the limited variability in the training data. Implications of the empirical findings regarding the Bakken play for operators and for research and government institutions are discussed in the concluding section.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Detection of Perkinsus marinus extracellular proteins tissues of the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica: Potential use diagnostic assays

Perkinsus marinus , the cause of serious losses of the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica , secretes extracellular proteins (ECP) in culture (in vitro) including serine proteases. The production of similar ECP in the eastern oyster (in vivo) and their role in pathogenicity, however, remain to be elucidated. The induction and dissemination of these proteins within infected eastern oysters could be critical to understanding the pathologic mechanisms employed as well as to providing the means for rapid and specific diagnosis. To quantify and examine the production of these proteins in the host, polyclonal antibodies were produced against ECP produced during the in vitro culture of P. marinus. By the use of a Western blot technique, these antibodies were shown to recognize a 62-kDa protein antigen expressed in lightly infected oysters, whereas three antigens (62, 38, and 28 kDa) were recognized in heavily infected oysters. Additionally, there was an antigen that is expressed in vitro (40 kDa) that was not detected in vivo and two that were detected in vivo (120 and 32 kDa) but not in vitro. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) employing these antibodies indicated that the concentration of secreted antigens is significantly related ( P < 0.05) to the number of cells of P. marinus in infected eastern oyster tissues, as determined by the standard Ray's fluid thioglycollate medium (RFTM) assay. Significant differences ( P < 0.025) between the ELISA and RFTM assays were only observed when oysters possessed less than one hypnospore per gram of tissue. Thus this ELISA proved to be an excellent diagnostic tool, generating values that correlated with the number of protozoal cells present within infected tissues.

Virginia↗

Waveform inversion of oscillatory signatures in long-period events beneath volcanoes

The source mechanism of long-period (LP) events is examined using synthetic waveforms generated by the acoustic resonance of a fluid-filled crack. We perform a series of numerical tests in which the oscillatory signatures of synthetic LP waveforms are used to determine the source time functions of the six moment tensor components from waveform inversions assuming a point source. The results indicate that the moment tensor representation is valid for the odd modes of crack resonance with wavelengths 2 L / n , 2 W / n , n = 3, 5, 7, …, where L and W are the crack length and width, respectively. For the even modes with wavelengths 2 L / n , 2 W / n , n = 2, 4, 6, …, a generalized source representation using higher-order tensors is required, although the efficiency of seismic waves radiated by the even modes is expected to be small. We apply the moment tensor inversion to the oscillatory signatures of an LP event observed at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, central Japan. Our results point to the resonance of a subhorizontal crack located a few hundred meters beneath the summit crater lakes. The present approach may be useful to quantify the source location, geometry, and force system of LP events, and opens the way for moment tensor inversions of tremor.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗