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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Estimating instream constituent loads using replicate synoptic sampling, Peru Creek, Colorado

The synoptic mass balance approach is often used to evaluate constituent mass loading in streams affected by mine drainage. Spatial profiles of constituent mass load are used to identify sources of contamination and prioritize sites for remedial action. This paper presents a field scale study in which replicate synoptic sampling campaigns are used to quantify the aggregate uncertainty in constituent load that arises from (1) laboratory analyses of constituent and tracer concentrations, (2) field sampling error, and (3) temporal variation in concentration from diel constituent cycles and/or source variation. Consideration of these factors represents an advance in the application of the synoptic mass balance approach by placing error bars on estimates of constituent load and by allowing all sources of uncertainty to be quantified in aggregate; previous applications of the approach have provided only point estimates of constituent load and considered only a subset of the possible errors. Given estimates of aggregate uncertainty, site specific data and expert judgement may be used to qualitatively assess the contributions of individual factors to uncertainty. This assessment can be used to guide the collection of additional data to reduce uncertainty. Further, error bars provided by the replicate approach can aid the investigator in the interpretation of spatial loading profiles and the subsequent identification of constituent source areas within the watershed. The replicate sampling approach is applied to Peru Creek, a stream receiving acidic, metal-rich effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine. Other sources of acidity and metals within the study reach include a wetland area adjacent to the mine and tributary inflow from Cinnamon Gulch. Analysis of data collected under low-flow conditions indicates that concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Peru Creek exceed aquatic life standards. Constituent loading within the study reach is dominated by effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine, with over 50% of the Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn loads attributable to a collapsed adit near the top of the study reach. These estimates of mass load may underestimate the effect of the Pennsylvania Mine as leakage from underground mine workings may contribute to metal loads that are currently attributed to the wetland area. This potential leakage confounds the evaluation of remedial options and additional research is needed to determine the magnitude and location of the leakage.

Colorado↗

Expanding the role of reactive transport models in critical zone processes

Models test our understanding of processes and can reach beyond the spatial and temporal scales of measurements. Multi-component Reactive Transport Models (RTMs), initially developed more than three decades ago, have been used extensively to explore the interactions of geothermal, hydrologic, geochemical, and geobiological processes in subsurface systems. Driven by extensive data sets now available from intensive measurement efforts, there is a pressing need to couple RTMs with other community models to explore non-linear interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. Here we briefly review the history of RTM development, summarize the current state of RTM approaches, and identify new research directions, opportunities, and infrastructure needs to broaden the use of RTMs. In particular, we envision the expanded use of RTMs in advancing process understanding in the Critical Zone, the veneer of the Earth that extends from the top of vegetation to the bottom of groundwater. We argue that, although parsimonious models are essential at larger scales, process-based models offer tools to explore the highly nonlinear coupling that characterizes natural systems. We present seven testable hypotheses that emphasize the unique capabilities of process-based RTMs for (1) elucidating chemical weathering and its physical and biogeochemical drivers; (2) understanding the interactions among roots, micro-organisms, carbon, water, and minerals in the rhizosphere; (3) assessing the effects of heterogeneity across spatial and temporal scales; and (4) integrating the vast quantity of novel data, including “omics” data (genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics), elemental concentration and speciation data, and isotope data into our understanding of complex earth surface systems. With strong support from data-driven sciences, we are now in an exciting era where integration of RTM framework into other community models will facilitate process understanding across disciplines and across scales.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Effects of climate-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes in a small forested watershed in the Southeastern United States

Streamwater quality can be affected by climate-related variability in hydrologic state, which controls flow paths and affects biogeochemical processes. Thirty-one years of input/output solute fluxes at Panola Mountain Research Watershed, a small, forested, seasonally water-limited watershed near Atlanta, Georgia, were used to quantify the effects of climatic-related variability in storage on streamwater solute concentrations and fluxes. Streamwater fluxes were estimated for ten solutes from weekly and event sample concentrations using regression-based methods. The most pertinent storage attribute (current or antecedent watershed, shallow, and deep storage) for each solute was determined by fitting separate concentration relationships. The concentration-discharge relationships varied more for reactive solutes such as potassium, sulfate, and DOC and less for weathering products (base cations and dissolved silica) and conservative chloride. Many solutes exhibited higher concentrations when storage levels were lower or wetting up, which was likely the result of the concentrating effects of evapotranspiration and/or the buildup and flushing of weathering products associated with longer residence times. The impacts of storage modeling on annual fluxes varied by solute, ranging from about 5% (magnesium) to 52% (nitrate) as relative standard deviations, and sufficiently removed climate-related patterns observed in streamwater concentrations. Sulfate was particularly mobilized following growing season droughts but only if deep storage was sufficiently recharged, possibly indicating that sulfides in the deep storage pool were oxidized to sulfate during droughts and mobilized when re-wetted. The lack of streamwater sulfate response to 61% declines in atmospheric deposition indicates the importance of watershed biogeochemical processes on controls of streamwater export of sulfate. The approach of explicitly incorporating storage in the streamwater concentration modeling elucidated the effects of climate on streamwater water-quality and may provide insight into the effects of climatic change on future fluxes.

Georgia↗

Understanding contaminants associated with mineral deposits

Interdisciplinary studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have resulted in substantial progress in understanding the processes that control the release of metals and acidic water from inactive mines and mineralized areas, the transport of metals and acidic water to streams, and the fate and effect of metals and acidity on downstream ecosystems. The potential environmental effects associated with abandoned and inactive mines, resulting from the complex interaction of a variety of chemical and physical processes, is an area of study that is important to the USGS Mineral Resources Program. Understanding the processes contributing to the environmental effects of abandoned and inactive mines is also of interest to a wide range of stakeholders, including both those responsible for managing lands with historically mined areas and those responsible for anticipating environmental consequences of future mining operations. The recently completed (2007) USGS project entitled 'Process Studies of Contaminants Associated with Mineral Deposits' focused on abandoned and inactive mines and mineralized areas in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona, where there are thousands of abandoned mines. Results from these studies provide new information that advances our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes causing the mobilization, transport, reaction, and fate of potentially toxic elements (including aluminum, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, and zinc) in mineralized near-surface systems and their effects on aquatic and riparian habitat. These interdisciplinary studies provide the basis for scientific decisionmaking and remedial action by local, State, and Federal agencies charged with minimizing the effects of potentially toxic elements on the environment. Current (2007) USGS research highlights the need to understand (1) the geologic sources of metals and acidity and the geochemical reactions that release them from their sources, (2) the pathways that facilitate transport from those sources, and (3) the processes that control the fate of the elements once released from the sources. Experts in the fields of economic geology, structural geology, mineralogy, geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, ground-water modeling, microbiology, and toxicology came together for a series of studies that address these relationships on scales ranging from the microscopic to the watershed. This Circular presents results and highlights from the detailed, interdisciplinary studies that include investigations in both mining-affected areas and mineralized but unmined areas. The first section of the Circular describes laboratory and site-scale field investigations that primarily focus on mineralogic and biologic controls on the source and release of metals and acidity from mine-waste rock and hydrothermally altered areas. The second section describes a set of basin- to watershed-scale studies that not only investigate the source and release of metals and acidity but also the transport of these constituents away from the source areas. The third section is a summary of results from postremediation ecosystem monitoring. For more information on these and other project-related studies, please visit the project Web site at http://minerals.cr.usgs.gov/projects/contaminants/index.html. The Web site includes a complete bibliography and detailed descriptions of each interdisciplinary study.

Circular↗

Current research in land, water, and agroecosystems: ASABE journals 2017 year in review

This article highlights current research into land and water resources, agroecosystems, and agricultural production systems published by the Natural Resources and Environmental Systems (NRES) community of ASABE journals (Transactions of the ASABE and Applied Engineering in Agriculture) in 2017. This article reviews the context, scope, and key results of the published articles and perhaps more importantly recommends areas for increased research attention. Experimental and modeling advances were described in hydrology, agroecosystems, climate-change effects, soil erosion, irrigation, drainage, forest resources, livestock systems, natural treatment systems, international water issues, and water quality topic areas. Three special collections were published (International Watershed Technology, Crop Modeling to Optimize Water Use, and Advances in Drainage). Other focal areas included 14 articles relating to livestock waste management, 13 concerning irrigated agricultural systems, 8 addressing climate change effects on land and water resources, and 16 on various aspects of soil erosion measurement and modeling. Building on the articles reviewed from 2017 and toward a vision of future agroecosystems research, the NRES community of ASABE journals strives to grow its role in making new knowledge accessible to sustain agricultural and natural systems in a changing world. In this vane, recommendations for future research direction are discussed with an emphasis on increased application of remote sensing data to agroecosystems research, improved assessment of agroecosystem resiliency and vulnerability to land and climate change, development of integrated models of agroecosystem services, meeting stubborn water management challenges in agricultural production systems, and focusing on publishing fully reproducible model results.

Transactions of the ASABE↗

Water-related scientific activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in Nevada, fiscal years 1993-94

The U.S. Geological Survey has been collecting water-resources data in Nevada since 1890. Most of the projects that constitute the current Nevada District program can be classified as either basic- data acquisition (about 25 percent) or hydrologic interpretation (about 75 percent). About 39 percent of the activities are supported by cooperative agreements with State and local agencies. Technical projects supported by other Federal agencies make up about 32 percent of the program, and the re- maining 29 percent consists of USGS data collection, interpretive projects, and research. Water con- ditions in most of Nevada during fiscal years 1993 and 1994 continued to be dry, a continuation of drought conditions since late 1986. The major water-resource issues in Nevada include: water allocation in the Truckee River and Carson River Basins; water-supply needs of Las Vegas and the Reno/Sparks area, including water-importation plans; hydrologic effects of weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site; assessment of potential long-term effects of the proposed Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository; and drought. Future water-resources issues in Nevada are likely to center on water supply for, and environmental effects of, the rapidly growing population centers at Las Vegas, Reno, and Elko; impacts of operations at the Nevada Test Site; management of interstate rivers such as the Truckee, Carson, Walker, and Colorado Rivers; hydrologic and environmental impacts at heavily mined areas; and water-quality management in the Lake Tahoe Basin.

Open-File Report↗

Thinking like a consumer: Linking aquatic basal metabolism and consumer dynamics

The increasing availability of high‐frequency freshwater ecosystem metabolism data provides an opportunity to identify links between metabolic regimes, as gross primary production and ecosystem respiration patterns, and consumer energetics with the potential to improve our current understanding of consumer dynamics (e.g., population dynamics, community structure, trophic interactions). We describe a conceptual framework linking metabolic regimes of flowing waters with consumer community dynamics. We use this framework to identify three emerging research needs: (1) quantifying the linkage of metabolism and consumer production data via food web theory and carbon use efficiencies, (2) evaluating the roles of metabolic dynamics and other environmental regimes (e.g., hydrology, light) in consumer dynamics, and (3) determining the degree to which metabolic regimes influence the evolution of consumer traits and phenology. Addressing these needs will improve the understanding of consumer biomass and production patterns as metabolic regimes can be viewed as an emergent property of food webs.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗

Mapping, exploration, and characterization of the California continental margin and associated features from the California-Oregon border to Ensenada, Mexico

Priority Geographic Area: Both within and outside US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). California continental margin. This area includes and continues south of the geographic area captured in the Watt et al. white paper. Description of Priority Area: The California continental margin, from the narrow shelf to abyssal depths, contains diverse seafloor features that influence benthic community types, biological connectivity, and is associated with significant seafloor geohazards. These complex features include marginal basins, depositional slopes, submarine canyons, ridges, and seamounts, and seep environments as a result of fluid seeps along active faults. Water column characteristics are variable, with steep gradients in current velocities, which influence sediment transport, from depositional fans (slow flow, muddy) to submarine canyons and seamounts (high currents, rocky, rugged terrain). These features and associated environments can influence the distribution of deep-sea habitats, including coral and sponge communities. South of the region described in the Watt et al. and Demopoulos et al. white papers, plentiful seeps occur from northern California down to the southern California Borderland. However, the underlying foundational geology associated with these seeps varies along the margin, changing with contrasting tectonic settings, from convergent tectonics to regions dominated by strike-slip faulting (Barry et al. 1996; Paull et al. 2008; Bernardo and Smith 2010; Maloney et al. 2015). For seeps located off southern California, the relationship to strike-slip fault systems may influence the distribution of seep fluid expulsion sites and associated seep habitats (Maloney et al. 2015; Grupe et al. 2015; Conrad et al., 2017), where transpression plays a key role in formation and localization of fluid seeps. Further exploration is required in order to understand these connections. Several submarine canyons intersect the shelf within this region, serving as important channels of energy and transport of sediment from shelf to slope depths. Canyons are typically associated with high currents, turbidity flows, steep and rugged terrain, and high food availability, all of which structures canyon communities and supports hotspots of biodiversity. Specific canyons along the California margin that have been well studied include Scripps and La Jolla Canyons off San Diego, and Monterey Canyon off Monterey, but many more remain relatively unexplored. Commercially important species of fish and invertebrates have been found associated with canyons, as well as deep-sea corals and sponges (e.g., Barry et al. 1996). However, in contrast to their Atlantic counterparts (e.g., through ACUMEN and ASPIRE campaigns) there has been a dearth of exploration and characterization of canyons along the California margin. A number of questions remain regarding canyon and slope wall stability and associated geohazards, plus, how the canyons connect and influence the broader regional biogeography of benthic communities is unknown. Due to their topography, seamounts along the California margin are characterized by steep slopes, large areas of rocky substrate, and high currents. Hydrological complexity is associated with seamounts given they impinge different watermasses, depending on depth range. This heterogeneity yields complex and diverse benthic communities, including commercially important fishes (e.g., Tracey et al., 2012). The geology of Davidson, Pioneer, San Juan, and Rodriquez Seamounts has received considerable study (e.g., Davis et al., 2010) but other seamounts are less known, including how they are biologically and ecologically connected. For example, research comparing the benthic communities associated with Rodriguez and San Juan Seamounts, located outside of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and within the proposed Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary, to communities found within the sanctuary is critical for managing and protecting resources within the sanctuary and modifying sanctuary boundaries. Exploration would yield the data needed to delineate and characterize essential fish habitats, and deep-sea coral and sponge communities, thus directly connecting the utility of exploration and discovery to decision making. The southern California Borderland is a geomorphologically heterogeneous area created by a complex network of faults, containing deep basins separated by shallow ridges and islands. Persistent fault-related deformation has created complex features, such as exposure of scarps and uplift rocks/ridges, seeps, erosional terraces, hydrate mounds, and mud volcanoes that provide support for thriving benthic communities. That said, significant oxygen minimum zones and low aragonite saturation states persist within several of the basin environments, influencing energy flow, community ecology, and calcification. For example, the combined effects of hypoxia and acidification pose serious threats to marine organisms and biological resources along the California margin. Mapping and exploration of the extensive faults and fault scarps can help constrain historical earthquake activity. But many questions remain regarding how the underlying geology and geological processes have shaped the biological communities.

California↗

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗

Performance of a carbon dioxide injection system at a navigation lock to control the spread of aquatic invasive species

Natural resource agencies need effective strategies to control the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS) such as invasive fish, which can expand their range using rivers as hydrological pathways to access new areas. Lock and dam structures within major rivers are prospective locations to deploy techniques, such as carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) infusion into lock water, that could impede upstream AIS migration without disrupting vessel passage and lock operation. The current pesticide label for CO 2 in the United States allows injections of 100–150 mg/LCO 2 as a behavioral deterrent treatment for invasive carps. This research describes the first operationalizing and testing of a CO 2 injection and manifold distribution system at a 1,548,000-L navigation lock chamber on the Fox River near Kaukauna, Wisconsin, USA. Two chemical distribution manifolds located on the floor and wall of the chamber were independently tested to quantify mixing time, mixing homogeneity, injection efficiency, and operational power requirements under a range of operating parameters. Both manifold configurations were able to meet most performance benchmarks established during previous fish behavior studies. Certain limitations were exhibited and quantified for both manifold configurations in terms of mixing homogeneity and operational power. This research details the design and performance of CO2-to-water infusion systems that could be used to deter the spread of AIS at navigation pinch-points. These results may inform future CO 2 system designs and operating conditions to support natural resource management plans to limit the spread of AIS.

Wisconsin↗

Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. Here we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 yr, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7°C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9–74% and 33–55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678 595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950–1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8–44%) and an increase in early-successional deciduous forest (25–113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223–620%), shrub tundra may increase (4–21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10–24%). This study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

Alaska↗

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

Sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

Influence of groundwater on distribution of dwarf wedgemussels (Alasmidonta heterodon) in the upper reaches of the Delaware River, northeastern USA

The remaining populations of the endangered dwarf wedgemussel (DWM) ( Alasmidonta heterodon ) in the upper Delaware River, northeastern USA, were hypothesized to be located in areas of greater-than-normal groundwater discharge to the river. We combined physical (seepage meters, monitoring wells and piezometers), thermal (fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing, infrared, vertical bed-temperature profiling), and geophysical (electromagnetic-induction) methods at several spatial scales to characterize known DWM habitat and explore this hypothesis. Numerous springs were observed using visible and infrared imaging along the river banks at all three known DWM-populated areas, but not in adjacent areas where DWM were absent. Vertical and lateral groundwater gradients were toward the river along all three DWM-populated reaches, with median upward gradients 3 to 9 times larger than in adjacent reaches. Point-scale seepage-meter measurements indicated that upward seepage across the riverbed was faster and more consistently upward at DWM-populated areas. Discrete and areally distributed riverbed-temperature measurements indicated numerous cold areas of groundwater discharge during warm summer months; all were within areas populated by DWM. Electromagnetic-induction measurements, which may indicate riverbed geology, showed patterning but little correlation between bulk streambed electromagnetic conductivity and areal distribution of DWM. In spite of complexity introduced by hyporheic exchange, multiple lines of research provide strong evidence that DWM are located within or directly downstream of areas of substantial focused groundwater discharge to the river. Broad scale thermal-reconnaissance methods (e.g., infrared) may be useful in locating and protecting other currently unknown mussel populations.

Delaware River↗

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Examining Submarine Ground-Water Discharge into Florida Bay by using 222Rn and Continuous Resistivity Profiling

Estimates of submarine ground-water discharge (SGD) into Florida Bay remain one of the least understood components of a regional water balance. To quantify the magnitude and seasonality of SGD into upper Florida Bay, research activities included the use of the natural geochemical tracer, 222Rn, to examine potential SGD hotspots (222Rn surveys) and to quantify the total (saline + fresh water component) SGD rates at select sites (222Rn time-series). To obtain a synoptic map of the 222Rn distribution within our study site in Florida Bay, we set up a flow-through system on a small boat that consisted of a Differential Global Positioning System, a calibrated YSI, Inc CTD sensor with a sampling rate of 0.5 min, and a submersible pump (z = 0.5 m) that continuously fed water into an air/water exchanger that was plumbed simultaneously into four RAD7 222Rn air monitors. To obtain local advective ground-water flux estimates, 222Rn time-series experiments were deployed at strategic positions across hydrologic and geologic gradients within our study site. These time-series stations consisted of a submersible pump, a Solinist DIVER (to record continuous CTD parameters) and two RAD7 222Rn air monitors plumbed into an air/water exchanger. Repeat time-series 222Rn measurements were conducted for 3-4 days across several tidal excursions. Radon was also measured in the air during each sampling campaign by a dedicated RAD7. We obtained ground-water discharge information by calculating a 222Rn mass balance that accounted for lateral and horizontal exchange, as well as an appropriate ground-water 222Rn end member activity. Another research component utilized marine continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) surveys to examine the subsurface salinity structure within Florida Bay sediments. This system consisted of an AGI SuperSting 8 channel receiver attached to a streamer cable that had two current (A,B) electrodes and nine potential electrodes that were spaced 10 m apart. A separate DGPS continuously sent position information to the SuperSting. Results indicate that the 222Rn maps provide a useful gauge of relative ground-water discharge into upper Florida Bay. The 222Rn time-series measurements provide a reasonable estimate of site- specific total (saline and fresh) ground-water discharge (mean = 12.5+-11.8 cm d-1), while the saline nature of the shallow ground-water at our study site, as evidenced by CPR results, indicates that most of this discharge must be recycled sea water. The CRP data show some interesting trends that appear to be consistent with subsurface geologic and hydrologic characterization. For example, some of the highest resistivity (electrical conductivity-1) values were recorded where one would expect a slight subsurface freshening (for example bayside Key Largo, or below the C111 canal).

Open-File Report↗

Land-use and land-cover scenarios and spatial modeling at the regional scale

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has altered a large part of the earth's surface. Scenarios of potential future LULC change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on biodiversity, carbon fluxes, climate change, hydrology, and many other ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing potential future LULC change in the United States, using an approach based on scenario construction and spatially explicit modeling. Similar modeling techniques are being used to produce historical LULC maps from 1940 to present. With the combination of backcast and forecast LULC data, the USGS is providing consistent LULC data for historical, current, and future time frames to support a variety of research applications.

Fact Sheet↗

Knowledge and understanding of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande–San Acacia, New Mexico, to Fort Quitman, Texas, and plan for future studies and monitoring

Availability of water in the Rio Grande Basin has long been a primary concern for water-resource managers. The transport and delivery of water in the basin have been engineered by using reservoirs, irrigation canals and drains, and transmountain-water diversions to meet the agricultural, residential, and industrial demand. In contrast, despite the widespread recognition of critical water-quality problems, there have been minimal management efforts to improve water quality in the Rio Grande. Of greatest concern is salinization (concentration of dissolved solids approaching 1,000 mg/L), a water-quality problem that has been recognized and researched for more than 100 years because of the potential to limit both agricultural and municipal use. To address the issue of salinization, water-resource managers need to have a clear conceptual understanding of the sources of salinity and the factors that control storage and transport, identify critical knowledge gaps in this conceptual understanding, and develop a research plan to address these gaps and develop a salinity management program. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (NMISC), and New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) initiated a project to summarize the current state of knowledge regarding the transport of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande between San Acacia, New Mexico, and Fort Quitman, Texas. The primary objective is to provide hydrologic information pertaining to the spatial and temporal variability present in the concentrations and loads of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande, the source-specific budget for the mass of dissolved solids transported along the Rio Grande, and the locations at which dissolved solids enter the Rio Grande. Dissolved-solids concentration data provide a good indicator of the general quality of surface water and provide information on the factors governing salinization within the Rio Grande study area. The pattern in dissolved-solids concentrations along the Rio Grande is one of increasing concentration with increasing distance downstream from Elephant Butte and Caballo Reservoirs. The concentration of dissolved solids in the Rio Grande doubles (approximately 500 to 1,000 mg/L) from below Elephant Butte Reservoir to El Paso and increases by more than a factor of 5 (approximately 500 to 3,200 mg/L) from below Elephant Butte Reservoir to Fort Quitman. Marked increases in the concentration of dissolved solids commonly coincide with contributions from agricultural drains, wastewater-treatment plants, regional groundwater, and upward-flowing saline groundwater. The greatest factor, from the surface-water system, in controlling dissolved solids in the Rio Grande is the amount of water that is being transported or stored. Annual variation in streamflow is influenced primarily by climate (precipitation and evaporation) and management of Elephant Butte and Caballo Reservoirs (water storage and release cycles). Seasonal variation in streamflow within the Rio Grande study area is generally categorized generally as irrigation (March–September) and nonirrigation (October–February) seasons; with streamflow in the Rio Grande is highest during the irrigation season and lowest during the nonirrigation season. Dissolved-solids loads during the irrigation season decrease between Leasburg and Fort Quitman primarily because of irrigation diversions and losses to the underlying alluvial aquifer. Conversely, dissolved-solids loads during the nonirrigation season increase between Caballo Dam and Fort Quitman primarily because of the inflow of dissolved solids from agricultural drains, wastewater-treatment plants, and groundwater with elevated concentrations of dissolved solids. Many studies have mass-balance budgets that account for the mass of dissolved solids transported along the Rio Grande. Results from mass-balance budgets developed for dissolved solids indicated that (1) the inflow of saline groundwater, inflow of regional groundwater, and chemical reactions between mineral phases are the primary sources controlling dissolved solids in the Rio Grande, and (2) groundwater pumping and mineral precipitation are causing a net storage of dissolved solids in the Leasburg to El Paso and El Paso to Fort Quitman reaches of the Rio Grande. Looking forward, multiple water-resource managers from State and local agencies in New Mexico and Texas and Federal agencies formed the Rio Grande Salinity Management Coalition with the goal to reduce the amount of dissolved solids that are transported and stored in the Rio Grande study area. The recommendations for additional monitoring to assist the coalition are as follows: -Monitoring: Couple water-quality and streamflow monitoring in the Rio Grande and agricultural drains; perform groundwater-seepage investigations in the Rio Grande and major agricultural drains; nonitor groundwater water-quality conditions in the Mesilla and Hueco Basins. -Focused Hydrogeology Studies at Inflow Sources: Map dissolved-solids concentrations in the Rio Grande and underlying alluvial aquifer; perform hydrogeologic characterization of subsurface areas containing unusually high concentrations of dissolved solids. -Modeling of Dissolved Solids: Develop models to simulate the transport and storage of dissolved solids in both surface-water and groundwater systems.

New Mexico;Texas↗

Initial Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) digital elevation model research and development

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) offers a consistent and documented dataset that can be used to guide large-scale field operations, to integrate hydrologic and ecological responses, and to support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem responses to the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (Telis, 2006). To produce historic and near-real time maps of water depths, the EDEN requires a system-wide digital elevation model (DEM) of the ground surface. Accurate Everglades wetland ground surface elevation data were non-existent before the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) undertook the collection of highly accurate surface elevations at the regional scale. These form the foundation for EDEN DEM development. This development process is iterative as additional high accuracy elevation data (HAED) are collected, water surfacing algorithms improve, and additional ground-based ancillary data become available. Models are tested using withheld HAED and independently measured water depth data, and by using DEM data in EDEN adaptive management applications. Here the collection of HAED is briefly described before the approach to DEM development and the current EDEN DEM are detailed. Finally future research directions for continued model development, testing, and refinement are provided.

Florida↗