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Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

Journal of Coastal Research

The river as a chemostat: fresh perspectives on dissolved organic matter flowing down the river continuum

A better understanding is needed of how hydrological and biogeochemical processes control dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition from headwaters downstream to large rivers. We examined a large DOM dataset from the National Water Information System of the US Geological Survey, which represents approximately 100 000 measurements of DOC concentration and DOM composition at many sites along rivers across the United States. Application of quantile regression revealed a tendency towards downstream spatial and temporal homogenization of DOC concentrations and a shift from dominance of aromatic DOM in headwaters to more aliphatic DOM downstream. The DOC concentration–discharge (C-Q) relationships at each site revealed a downstream tendency towards a slope of zero. We propose that despite complexities in river networks that have driven many revisions to the River Continuum Concept, rivers show a tendency towards chemostasis (C-Q slope of zero) because of a downstream shift from a dominance of hydrologic drivers that connect terrestrial DOM sources to streams in the headwaters towards a dominance of instream and near-stream biogeochemical processes that result in preferential losses of aromatic DOM and preferential gains of aliphatic DOM.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Who spawns where? Temperature, elevation, and discharge differentially affect the distribution of breeding by six Pacific salmonids within a large river basin

Within the geographic range of salmonid fishes, many apparently suitable rivers and streams are used for reproduction by some species but not others. This is widely known but seldom addressed, as studies often examine factors determining the distribution of one or only a few species. We examined physical factors associated with the spawning distribution of six native Pacific salmonids (pink, chum, coho, and Chinook salmon, bull trout, and steelhead) in the Skagit River basin, Washington. Annual mean temperature and catchment elevation had the strongest association with spawning assemblage distribution, but stream length, annual discharge, seasonal hydrology, and land use were also influential. Some species (e.g., pink and Chinook salmon) were more closely associated with each other and with common variables than others, and bull trout were the most distinctive. For interpretation, we investigated the roles of adult body size, timing of spawning, and duration of juvenile rearing, but none of these factors explained groupings in the data. Interspecific differences in habitat association remained, suggesting fundamental constraints on species distributions with implications for conservation and restoration.

Washington

Microbial populations in contaminant plumes

Efficient biodegradation of subsurface contaminants requires two elements: (1) microbial populations with the necessary degradative capabilities, and (2) favorable subsurface geochemical and hydrological conditions. Practical constraints on experimental design and interpretation in both the hydrogeological and microbiological sciences have resulted in limited knowledge of the interaction between hydrogeological and microbiological features of subsurface environments. These practical constraints include: (1) inconsistencies between the scales of investigation in the hydrogeological and microbiological sciences, and (2) practical limitations on the ability to accurately define microbial populations in environmental samples. However, advances in application of small-scale sampling methods and interdisciplinary approaches to site investigations are beginning to significantly improve understanding of hydrogeological and microbiological interactions. Likewise, culture-based and molecular analyses of microbial populations in subsurface contaminant plumes have revealed significant adaptation of microbial populations to plume environmental conditions. Results of recent studies suggest that variability in subsurface geochemical and hydrological conditions significantly influences subsurface microbial-community structure. Combined investigations of site conditions and microbial-community structure provide the knowledge needed to understand interactions between subsurface microbial populations, plume geochemistry, and contaminant biodegradation.

Hydrogeology Journal

Storm surge propagation and flooding in small tidal rivers during events of mixed coastal and fluvial influence

The highly urbanized estuary of San Francisco Bay is an excellent example of a location susceptible to flooding from both coastal and fluvial influences. As part of developing a forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers, a case study of the Napa River and its interactions with the San Francisco Bay was performed. For this application we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model that computes conservation of mass and momentum on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, storm surge generated by wind and pressure fields, and river flows. We simulated storms with realistic atmospheric pressure, river discharge, and tidal forcing to represent a realistic joint fluvial and coastal storm event. Storm conditions were applied to both a realistic field-scale Napa river drainage as well as an idealized geometry. With these scenarios, we determine how the extent, level, and duration of flooding is dependent on these atmospheric and hydrologic parameters. Unsurprisingly, the model indicates that maximal water levels will occur in a tidal river when high tides, storm surge, and large fluvial discharge events are coincident. Model results also show that large tidal amplitudes diminish storm surge propagation upstream and that phasing between peak fluvial discharges and high tide is important for predicting when and where the highest water levels will occur. The interactions between tides, river discharge, and storm surge are not simple, indicating the need for more integrated flood forecasting models in the future.

California

An approach to regional wetland digital elevation model development using a differential global positioning system and a custom-built helicopter-based surveying system

Accurate topographic data are critical to restoration science and planning for the Everglades region of South Florida, USA. They are needed to monitor and simulate water level, water depth and hydroperiod and are used in scientific research on hydrologic and biologic processes. Because large wetland environments and data acquisition challenge conventional ground-based and remotely sensed data collection methods, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) adapted a classical data collection instrument to global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Data acquired with this instrument were processed using geostatistics to yield sub-water level elevation values with centimetre accuracy (±15 cm). The developed database framework, modelling philosophy and metadata protocol allow for continued, collaborative model revision and expansion, given additional elevation or other ancillary data.

Florida

Bibliographic supplement to USGS Bulletin 1426; 1975 to June 1979

This bibliography is a supplement to U.S. Geological Survey Bulletins 1426 (Bergquist, 1976) and 1263 (Heath and Tabacchi, 1968). The titles listed result from work undertaken in cooperation with national agencies partly through technical assistance projects under the auspices of the Agency for International Development, U.S. Department of State; partly under reimbursable assistance projects with other governments on behalf of the Department of State; partly under assistance projects sponsored by international organizations; and partly under scientific exchange projects supported by U.S. agencies such as the National Science Foundation. This report includes titles published during the period 1975 through June 1979, but is not necessarily complete, as an exhaustive search was not made; however, it is being released in open file in order to make the data available to the public on an interim basis. Seven geographic regions and 71 countries are represented. A few titles published prior to 1975 have been found that are not included in Bulletins 1263 or 1426. Only reports authored solely or in part by USGS members, or jointly by USGS and counterpart staff members, are listed. The reports are listed alphabetically by author, under the appropriate country; reports of wider scope are given under the continent or geographic region, for example, Africa, Central and South America, or CENTO region. Reports not classifiable by geographic location are listed separately under the heading "General." All references to reports on water resources and hydrology were provided by J. R. Jones or R. M. Beall, USGS. The reports and maps are available only through the listed source. Copies of articles published in scientific journals or by other governments or agencies cannot be ordered from the USGS. Instructions for ordering publications of the USGS follow.

Open-File Report

A stable isotope record of late Quaternary hydrologic change in the northwestern Brooks Range, Alaska (eastern Beringia)

A submillennial-resolution record of lake water oxygen isotope composition (δ 18 O) from chironomid head capsules is presented from Burial Lake, northwest Alaska. The record spans the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20–16k cal a bp ) to the present and shows a series of large lake δ 18 O shifts (~5‰). Relatively low δ 18 O values occurred during a period covering the LGM, when the lake was a shallow, closed-basin pond. Higher values characterize deglaciation (~16–11.5k cal a bp ) when the lake was still closed but lake levels were higher. A rapid decline between ~11 and 10.5k cal a bp indicates that lake levels rose to overflowing. Lake δ 18 O values are interpreted to reflect the combined effects of changes in lake hydrology, growing season temperature and meteoric source water as well as large-scale environmental changes impacting this site, including opening of the Bering Strait and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns related to ice-sheet dynamics. The results indicate significant shifts in precipitation minus evaporation across the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition, which are consistent with temporal patterns of vegetation change and paludification. This study provides new perspectives on the paleohydrology of eastern Beringia concomitant with human migration and major turnover in megafaunal assemblages.

Alaska

Basis and methods of NASA airborne topographic mapper lidar surveys for coastal studies

This paper provides an overview of the basic principles of airborne laser altimetry for surveys of coastal topography, and describes the methods used in the acquisition and processing of NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys that cover much of the conterminous US coastline. This form of remote sensing, also known as "topographic lidar", has undergone extremely rapid development during the last two decades, and has the potential to contribute within a wide range of coastal scientific investigations. Various airborne laser surveying (ALS) applications that are relevant to coastal studies are being pursued by researchers in a range of Earth science disciplines. Examples include the mapping of "bald earth" land surfaces below even moderately dense vegetation in studies of geologic framework and hydrology, and determination of the vegetation canopy structure, a key variable in mapping wildlife habitats. ALS has also proven to be an excellent method for the regional mapping of geomorphic change along barrier island beaches and other sandy coasts due to storms or long-term sedimentary processes. Coastal scientists are adopting ALS as a basic method in the study of an array of additional coastal topics. ALS can provide useful information in the analysis of shoreline change, the prediction and assessment of landslides along seacliffs and headlands, examination of subsidence causing coastal land loss, and in predicting storm surge and tsunami inundation.

Journal of Coastal Research

Estimating drivers and identifying uncertainties in smallmouth bass population dynamics in an invaded river network

Smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) is an important recreational sportfish and destructive non-native species when introduced into freshwater habitats. There is therefore a need to understand the drivers of, and uncertainties in, smallmouth bass population dynamics for various management objectives. We combined long-term smallmouth bass catch-effort and early life history data from a non-native population in the Green River sub-basin of the upper Colorado River to develop a demographic model that links interannual variability in environmental conditions to recruitment in three river reaches. We used the model to quantify how hydrology, river temperature, and exploitation drive smallmouth bass population dynamics. Early life stages were influenced by timing of hatching and discharge. Dispersal of age-0 fish and density-dependent dynamics were identified as primary sources of uncertainty. Determining the true nature of density-dependent dynamics is important, as the impact of exploitation-based management actions is dependent on the strengths of any density-dependent feedbacks. Our model provides a framework to predict smallmouth bass population responses to future climate conditions, reservoir operations, and exploitation levels.

Utah

Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Evidence from 12-year study links ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine with climate change

Investigators at the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences (East Boothbay, Maine) and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborated to study ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine. As part of the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series (GNATS), a comprehensive long-term study of hydrographic, biological, optical and chemical properties, multiple cruises have been conducted each year since 2001 by using a portable laboratory aboard different vessels (figure 1) and occasionally a remotely controlled glider (figure 2). Data collected during these cruises, when analyzed within the context of a century of climatological and streamflow data, document changes in temperature, salinity, and coastal ocean productivity that appear to be related to recent increases in precipitation and streamflow. These results are evidence of a link between changing hydrologic conditions on land and changes in coastal ocean productivity.

EcoSystem Indicator Partnership Journal

Climate and streamflow of Puerto Rico

The presently available data on streamflow, runoff rainfall, and temperature of Puerto Rico are evaluated, although the period of record is very short, with a view to contributing to the knowledge of hydrology of tropical islands. The average annual streamflow in Puerto Rico is 45 percent of the annual rainfall, or 15 percent more than in the eastern piedmont of the U.S. where it is 30 percent. Climate is assumed to be responsible for this difference as well as for the differences of the flows of Puerto Rican streams which vary from 15 to 85 percent of the annual rainfall. Variations in the climate of Puerto Rico are shown by Thornthwaite's climatic index on a map of the island, and the variations of the streamflow to rainfall ratios of Puerto Rican streams are shown to be related to Thornthwaite's climatic index.

Caribbean Journal of Science

Pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls in transport in two Atlantic coastal plain tributaries and loadings to Chesapeake Bay

Concentrations of current-use pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine (OC) insecticides were determined above the reach of tide in the Chesterville Branch and Nanticoke River on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay during base-flow and storm-flow hydrologic regimes to evaluate mass transport to Chesapeake Bay. The two rivers monitored showed relatively high concentrations of atrazine, simazine, alachlor, and metolachlor in comparison to previously investigated western shore tributaries, and reflected the predominant agricultural land use in the eastern shore watersheds. The four current use pesticides showed the greatest seasonal contribution to annual loadings to tidal waters of Chesapeake Bay from the two rivers, and the relative order of annual loadings for the other contaminant classes was PAHs > PCBs > OC insecticides. Annual loadings normalized to the landscape areas of selected Chesapeake Bay watersheds showed correlations to identifiable source areas, with the highest pesticide yields (g/km2/yr) occurring in eastern shore agricultural landscapes, and the highest PAH yields derived from urban regions.

Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part

Remarkable response of native fishes to invasive trout suppression varies with trout density, temperature, and annual hydrology

Recovery of imperiled fishes can be achieved through suppression of invasives, but outcomes may vary with environmental conditions. We studied the response of imperiled desert fishes to an invasive brown ( Salmo trutta ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) suppression program in a Colorado River tributary, with natural flow and longitudinal variation in thermal characteristics. We investigated trends in fish populations related to suppression and tested hypotheses about the impacts of salmonid densities, hydrologic variation, and spatial–thermal gradients on the distribution and abundance of native fish species using zero-inflated generalized linear mixed effects models. Between 2012 and 2018, salmonids declined 89%, and native fishes increased dramatically (∼480%) once trout suppression surpassed ∼60%. Temperature and trout density were consistently retained in the top models predicting the abundance and distribution of native fishes. The greatest increases occurred in warmer reaches and in years with spring flooding. Surprisingly, given the evolution of native fishes in disturbance-prone systems, intense, monsoon-driven flooding limited native fish recruitment. Applied concertedly, invasive species suppression and efforts to mimic natural flow and thermal regimes may allow rapid and widespread native fish recovery.

Arizona

Groundwater use: Equilibrium between social benefits and potential environmental costs

In many countries groundwater resources are under-appreciated and, therefore, underutilizied; whereas, in some areas they are inappropriately exploited and, therefore, over-utilized. “Over utilization” can lead to depletion in quantity or a degradation in quality or both. Obstacles to effective management include: (1) lack of knowledge of basic principles of groundwater science among water planners, (2) in many, if not in most countries, ownership of groundwater is in the private domain with the result that codependence is unrecognized, and (3) a misunderstanding by water planners of the concepts of “overexploitation%rdquo; and conjunctive use. The economic, social, and hydrologic constraints and procedures for management for sustainable development of groundwater are significantly different from those for surface water because these differences result from such things as (1) groundwater development is not dependent on large scale collective projects (unlike the utilization of surface water that requires engineering structures for diverting, regulating and transporting water), (2) the activities of many different groups can affect the quality of water, and (3) users of groundwater often are not aware of their co-dependence on the groundwater heritage in which each participates. Hydrogeologists should try to identify those governmental policies that have a detrimental environmental effect, promote those policies that are beneficial, and demonstrate the need for a policy in matters where a policy is lacking.

Hydrogeology Journal

Simulating soil-water movement through loess-veneered landscapes using nonconsilient saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements

Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) data are available for the entire United States, so are incorporated in many regional and national models of hydrology and environmental management. However, SSURGO does not provide an understanding of spatial variability and only includes saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sat ) values estimated from particle size analysis (PSA). This study showed model sensitivity to the substitution of SSURGO data with locally described soil properties or alternate methods of measuring K sat . Incorporation of these different soil data sets significantly changed the results of hydrologic modeling as a consequence of the amount of space available to store soil water and how this soil water is moved downslope. Locally described soil profiles indicated a difference in K sat when measured in the field vs. being estimated from PSA. This, in turn, caused a difference in which soil layers were incorporated in the hydrologic simulations using TOPMODEL, ultimately affecting how soil water storage was simulated. Simulations of free-flowing soil water, the amount of water traveling through pores too large to retain water against gravity, were compared with field observations of water in wells at five slope positions along a catena. Comparison of the simulated data with the observed data showed that the ability to model the range of conditions observed in the field varied as a function of three soil data sets (SSURGO and local field descriptions using PSA-derived K sat or field-measured K sat ) and that comparison of absolute values of soil water storage are not valid if different characterizations of soil properties are used.

Soil Science Society of America Journal

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States