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Preliminary field report of landslide hazards following Hurricane Helene

Executive Summary This report reflects our knowledge regarding the widespread landslide activity associated with Hurricane Helene observed during the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission assignment to North Carolina in October 2024. The material in this report was originally prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency under mission assignment DR-4827-NC. The data and commentary in this report are reflective of a report provided to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on October 18, 2024, as well as information provided in briefings at the Buncombe County Emergency Operations Center. The report has been modified for public dissemination. This assessment was based on systematic visual examination and mapping of landslide locations from aerial and satellite imagery, visual and photographic observations from low-level helicopter overflights and conversations with local landslide experts from the North Carolina Geological Survey and Appalachian Landslide Consultants PLLC, and more than 50 years of combined landslide hazard professional experience of the mission-assigned field team. No systematic field investigations were done by the USGS. While responding to the event, the USGS did not identify any landslides that posed an immediate major threat to recovery personnel in parts of nine counties in North Carolina (Avery, Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Watauga, and Yancey); however, threats from renewed landslide activity may remain heightened in localized areas for months or even years. Known areas of the most abundant landslide occurrence include Bat Cave, Lake Lure, Chimney Rock, Swannanoa, Black Mountain, Fairview, steep areas in Asheville, and the Blue Ridge Parkway. The USGS shared detailed locations of known landslides with the Emergency Operations Centers. The thousands of landslide scars on hillsides and landslide deposits on flatter ground may present some threat to recovery activities. Soil and rocks will continue to erode from newly exposed landslide scars and may pose a threat to people and infrastructure who are immediately nearby. In general, the steeper and taller the landslide scar, the greater the potential threat. This threat is heightened during periods of rainfall and increases with the duration and intensity of rainstorms. Very heavy rainfall, or repeated rainfall events during short periods, could also initiate new landslides on steep slopes. Excavation of landslide deposits, particularly excavation of those deposits directly adjacent to steep slopes, may also pose a threat to nearby people and equipment. An interagency collaborative mapping effort led by the USGS that informed this assessment identified 1,155 landslide locations by the October 2024 briefings, but that number increased to 2,217 in a final reviewed version of the locations published in January 2025. Locations were mapped from satellite imagery, fixed-wing and helicopter surveys, media and social media, and field reports in the 3 weeks following the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Helene. USGS products outlined in this report are publicly available and include geotagged photographs from aerial reconnaissance, hazard models, an interactive view of mapped landslide locations, and landslide safety and education resources.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virgini

A multi-channel digital telemetry system for low frequency geophysical data

An inexpensive general purpose digital telemetry system for collection of low frequency geophysical data from U.S. Geological Survey instruments (eg. tilt, strain, gravity, creep, water level, radon, magnetic field, resistivity, telluric current, temperature, etc.) has been designed and built. This system provides data for a more general interactive data acquisition, retrieval and analysis system. The field stations are self-contained, battery operated and housed in weather proof containers. Each accepts up to 15 analog data inputs in the range of -5 to +5 volts. The dynamic range is 70db. The units transmit information as FSK (Frequency Shift Keyed) tones onto either a phone line or radio link with up to 150 transmitters sharing one line. The average power consumption is 0.06 nR watts where n is the 1 number of input channels transmitted and R is the sample rate in minutes -1 . The central receiver-recorder unit accepts and decodes the FSK tones and converts, formats and records the digital data together with time information and station identification on IBM combatible magnetic tape. The digital data are also converted and recorded in analog form for visual monitoring.

Open-File Report

Stress states on the eve of past earthquakes inform earthquake rupture through fault complexity along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults

Estimating the evolving state of stress along active fault systems can provide insight into the conditions that generated past ground‐rupturing earthquakes and influenced their ability to propagate through areas of geometric complexity, such as fault branches and stepovers. We use quasi‐static forward numerical models that incorporate the 3D complex configuration of active faults in southern California to estimate shear tractions on the geometrically complex southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults from 1000 to 1900 C.E. These tractions include interseismic accumulation of traction due to tectonic loading, viscoelastic relaxation of shear stress within the upper crust between earthquakes, and effects of other earthquakes on the fault network. We simulate ground‐rupturing earthquakes based on the along‐strike earthquake extents modeled by Scharer and Yule (2020) , assuming that stress drop is complete in each earthquake. We use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate uncertainty in evolving shear tractions due to uncertainties in earthquake timing and in upper‐crustal viscosity. Pre‐earthquake shear tractions typically do not exceed ∼2 MPa. Although ruptures with length <200 km have pre‐earthquake shear tractions that range from near zero to ∼1.75 MPa, these tractions are not less than ∼0.4 MPa for earthquakes with rupture length >200 km. Earthquakes with long (>200 km) ruptures occur only in the single‐stranded part of the system, whereas those with short (<125 km) rupture length and high pre‐earthquake shear traction occur near fault stepovers and branches. This suggests that high accumulated shear traction encourages longer rupture propagation, but may not be sufficient to overcome geometric complexities. This modeling approach informs our understanding of rupture propagation and provides estimates of fault shear tractions that are unavailable from direct measurements.

Callifornia

ECCOE Landsat quarterly Calibration and Validation report—Quarter 1, 2024

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 1 (January–March), 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov . This quarterly report is the third to include analysis results for Landsat 9, which was launched in September 2021. The inclusion of Landsat 9 analysis results was dependent on two factors: a complete reprocessing of the Landsat 9 data archive and enough time elapsing to begin formulating lifetime trends. In April 2023, all Landsat 9 image data acquired since the satellite’s launch were reprocessed to take advantage of calibration updates identified by the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team. Additional information about the Landsat 9 reprocessing effort is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/upcoming-reprocessing-all-landsat-9-data . Additional information about Landsat 9 prelaunch, commissioning, and early on-orbit imaging performance is available at https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing/special_issues/15B4V2K92K . This quarterly report is the first to not include analysis results for Landsat 7 because Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imaging was suspended on January 19, 2024, after the satellite transitioned into full sunlight. The satellite has been drifting since early 2022 after being lowered from the nominal orbit altitude, and the transition into full sunlight is a result of the satellite operating in its extended science mission. Additional information about the imaging suspension is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-7-imaging-suspended . Additional information about the Landsat 7 extended science mission is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-7-extended-science-mission .

Open-File Report

The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition—Working collaboratively to understand the geology of the Great Lakes Region

Introduction The Great Lakes Geologic Mapping Coalition (GLGMC), commonly referred to as the “Coalition,” is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and the Canadian province of Ontario. The member States receive funding for geologic mapping work from the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP), whereas Ontario participates as a nonfunded partner. The mission of the GLGMC is to produce three-dimensional (3D) geologic maps that depict unconsolidated sediments and near-surface bedrock in the Great Lakes region of North America. Geologic maps are the basis of most earth science investigations and help support resource exploration (energy, minerals, groundwater), natural hazard mitigation, infrastructure development, and land-use planning, all of which can be used to advance economic development and strengthen national security in the Great Lakes region. During the last few million years, the Great Lakes region has experienced repeated glacial advances and retreats, leaving behind extensive sediments, abundant natural resources, and widespread effects on the underlying bedrock geology (Swezey and others, 2022). Linked by shared histories of past glaciations, industrial agriculture, and legacy automotive, coal, steel, and manufacturing industries, the GLGMC member States collaborate to improve the understanding of the 3D distribution of the sediments overlying the region’s bedrock (fig. 1). Developing a comprehensive subsurface 3D framework of this glaciated terrain can provide earth science data to policymakers at all levels. These insights facilitate informed decisions on the exploration, use, and protection of vital resources, such as critical minerals, industrial materials, and aquifers, thereby supporting economic prosperity and the well-being of the citizens of this region. Since its inception in 1998, the Coalition has completed more than 100 geologic mapping projects across the Great Lakes region. Each project aims to deliver geologic maps, 3D datasets, and other information that improves understanding of the geology of the Great Lakes region, with an emphasis on economic and water resources. Key deliverables include 3D geologic maps and models typically portraying sediment thickness, often derived from top-of-bedrock and borehole data. These products are developed through a combination of fieldwork, subsurface modeling, and the collection and analysis of rock and sediment cores. To support Coalition goals, member States collaborate with scientists working on related STATEMAP, EDMAP, and FEDMAP projects. Coalition scientists also engage with Tribal Nations in the Great Lakes region to ensure that Tribal interests pertaining to Coalition work are addressed. Through this collaboration, the Coalition unites the efforts of State, Federal, and Tribal Nation stakeholders to advance geologic data production and enhance understanding of the geologic resources of the Great Lakes region.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York,

ECCOE Landsat quarterly Calibration and Validation report—Quarter 2, 2024

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Center of Excellence (ECCOE) focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, calibration, and product quality of remote-sensing data, leveraging years of multiscale optical system geometric and radiometric calibration and characterization experience. The ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team continually monitors the geometric and radiometric performance of active Landsat missions and makes calibration adjustments, as needed, to maintain data quality at the highest level. This report provides observed geometric and radiometric analysis results for Landsats 8 and 9 for quarter 2 (April–June) of 2024. All data used to compile the Cal/Val analysis results presented in this report are freely available from the U.S. Geological Survey EarthExplorer website: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov . This is the fourth quarterly report to include analysis results for Landsat 9, which was launched in September 2021. The inclusion of Landsat 9 analysis results was dependent on two factors: a complete reprocessing of the Landsat 9 data archive and enough time elapsing to begin formulating lifetime trends. In April 2023, all Landsat 9 image data acquired since the satellite’s launch were reprocessed to take advantage of calibration updates identified by the ECCOE Landsat Cal/Val Team. Additional information about the Landsat 9 reprocessing effort is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/upcoming-reprocessing-all-landsat-9-data . Additional information about Landsat 9 prelaunch, commissioning, and early on-orbit imaging performance is available at https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing/special_issues/15B4V2K92K . This is the second quarterly report that does not include analysis results for Landsat 7 because Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imaging was suspended on January 19, 2024, after the satellite transitioned into full sunlight. The satellite has been drifting since early 2022 when it was lowered from the nominal orbit altitude, and the transition into full sunlight is a result of the satellite operating in its extended science mission. Additional information about the imaging suspension is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/news/landsat-7-imaging-suspended . Additional information about the Landsat 7 extended science mission is available at https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-7-extended-science-mission .

Open-File Report

Performance analysis of oil recovery and CO2 retention in a greenfield residual oil zone: CO2-EOR in Tall Cotton Field (Permian Basin, West Texas, USA)

Residual oil zones (ROZs) can offer significant oil resources via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) retention during injection. If injected CO 2 is anthropogenic, the ROZs can offer a substantial geologic storage potential. The ROZs below the oil/water contact (OWC) of main pay zones (MPZ) in conventional reservoirs or brownfields, are more commonly developed for CO 2 injection and oil production and reported in the literature. However, CO 2 -EOR in greenfield ROZs, reservoirs without a MPZ present, have rarely been developed for CO 2 -EOR operation. The Tall Cotton Field of West Texas, Permian Basin, which started production in 2015 (Phase 1) and expanded in 2017 (Phase 2) from the San Andres Limestone, is one of the first examples of greenfield ROZs developed for EOR by injecting CO 2 . This paper analyses EOR and CO 2 retention performance of Tall Cotton Field using allocated injection and production data from inverted 5-spot well patterns of Phase-1 and -2 developments. Production and injection data allocated to each of the 28 identified patterns (nine 20-acre patterns for Phase-1, three 20-acre and sixteen 10-acre patterns for Phase-2) were analyzed for historical and forecasted oil recovery using ratio-trend decline analysis, and for CO 2 retention performance of the patterns. The allocated data were further used to calculate injected reservoir pore volume and void replacement ratios (VRR) for the analysis period. Quantitative results indicated that oil recovery factors of the 5-spot patterns varied between 4–10 %, and 5–30 % between the end of injection and the forecast periods, respectively. Storage of CO 2 , on the other hand, increased to a mean value of ∼7130 MMscf per pattern in Phase-1 and to a mean storage of 3700 MMscf per pattern in Phase-2 until the end of injection, followed by a decline after the end of injection and into the forecast period. Resulting CO 2 utilization factors ∼6–50 Mscf/bbl were estimated at the end of injection. Overall, presented results suggested that developing greenfield ROZs for CO 2 -EOR can be as promising as brownfield ROZs and mature MPZs for EOR and underground storage of injected CO 2 . For Tall Cotton Field, results suggest that Phase-2 patterns generally outperformed Phase-1 for oil recovery factors, while Phase-1 performed better in CO 2 retention performance metrics. This is the first study in the literature that reports a detailed CO 2 -EOR performance analysis of a greenfield ROZ in the Permian Basin, which can potentially allow for comparison with MPZs and brownfield ROZs.

Texas

Eruptive history within the vicinity of Al Madīnah in northern Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The northernmost part of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field contains early Pleistocene to Holocene mafic eruptive products within the vicinity of the city of Al Madīnah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A detailed geologic investigation into the eruptive history of a 570 square kilometer (km 2 ) area covering Al Madīnah and the surrounding area has yielded 33 mapped Quaternary volcanic units consisting of lava flows, scoria cones, and shield volcanoes. These eruptive products consist of continental, intraplate alkalic and minor transitional basalts, hawaiites, and a single mugearite that were emplaced from at least 1,014±14 thousand years ago (ka) to a single Holocene eruption in 1256 C.E. Lava flows are generally 10 to 15 kilometers (km) long (but can reach 23 km long), 1 to 3 km wide, and at least 10 meters thick. Most of the mapped units erupted episodically between 400 and 340 ka and 180 and 100 ka. Despite small individual volumes (less than 1 cubic kilometers dense rock equivalent), each unit represents eruption of a distinct magma batch that was strongly influenced by clinopyroxene, olivine, and plagioclase fractionation. Some of these units are interpreted to have undergone magma mixing pre- and (or) syneruptively. Integrating eruption ages, geochemistry, and paleomagnetic data yields evidence that some eruptions were temporally and (or) spatially clustered. Aligned scoria cones and elongate vent edifices were constructed atop fissure vent systems that reflect the local stress field, which controls dike ascent through the middle and upper crust.

Professional Paper

Global maps of critical mineral production in 2023

Introduction The global production of many mineral commodities, especially critical minerals, is concentrated in a few countries that have mineral resources and the infrastructure necessary to mine and process those resources. For this reason, the type and amount of mineral production differ by country. For example, many countries produce such metallic ores as gold and silver, whereas only a few countries produce magnesium, niobium, platinum-group metals, and rare earths. The concentration of mining and processing in certain countries necessitates the existence of a global supply chain. A mineral supply chain is the sequence of mining and processing of minerals and manufacturing of products. Mineral supply chains are global in scale, complex, and dynamic. Supply chain data can be used to understand how a country’s mineral resources and various economic, technical, and environmental factors affect the complexity of global supply chains. This fact sheet summarizes the world’s leading countries (those accounting for 5 percent or more of a commodity’s global production in 2023) for production of select mineral commodities (mainly critical minerals) in the mining and processing stages. These countries and the minerals they produce are synthesized on global maps to communicate the status of, and potential risk to, mineral commodity supply chains from geographic production concentration. Trade data from United Nations Statistics Division (2025) is used to support assessments of the observed production data.

Fact Sheet

Climate-driven sulfate export in alpine watersheds may stimulate methylmercury production

Climate change is increasing sulfate export and changing wetland extent in mountain regions. These changes may increase microbially mediated production of the neurotoxic substance methylmercury due to enhanced sulfate metabolism in mountain environments. Here, we assess methylmercury concentrations and formation rates across high-elevation wetlands in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We also investigate sulfate controls on methylmercury production within subalpine peatlands by amending soils with sulfate to mimic increased stream export of sulfate from the alpine zone and measuring methylmercury formation rates for different sulfate treatments. We found that subalpine peatlands have statistically significant higher methylmercury concentrations and formation rates compared to alpine, mineral-soil wetlands. Methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands also increased significantly ( p < 0.05) following sulfate additions; the highest rates occurred in sediments with intermediate extractable sulfate concentrations (∼0.60–1.4 mg sulfate g −1 dry soil). Our study is the first to identify soil sulfate-related thresholds for methylmercury production and sulfate-limitation of methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands. These findings highlight important linkages between climate-driven mineral weathering and mercury cycling in mountain regions globally.

Colorado

Estimated average annualized losses from potential building damage and fatalities due to earthquake-generated tsunamis in the United States

Earthquake-generated tsunamis represent substantial economic threats to states and territories in the United States (U.S.), but we are unaware of any effort to quantify potential impacts at the national level. This gap is partially due to the lack of nationally consistent data on tsunamigenic sources and associated return periods. This study addresses this issue and provides estimates of average annualized losses (AAL) for potential residential fatalities and capital stock losses associated with building damage (i.e., structural, non-structural, contents, and inventory damage) in the U.S. by curating tsunami-hazard information based on deterministic scenarios and probabilistic approaches, calculating potential losses, and estimating return periods where necessary. This assessment was done for the U.S. West Coast, Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories, and U.S. Atlantic Territories. We estimate that earthquake-generated tsunamis that could affect these states and territories collectively represent $1 billion in potential AAL with 79 % of losses due to residential fatalities and 21 % of losses due to capital stock losses from building damage. We identify AAL variations based on county and county equivalents, states and territories, geographic regions, return periods, and departure-delay assumptions for evacuating residents. Results include high AAL values for potential fatalities in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Pacific Northwest region, high AAL values for potential building-related damage in Hawaii and California, and high building- and population-loss ratios for county equivalents in Alaska and U.S. territories.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Metallurgical coal—Deposits, production, resources, market dynamics, and supply chain risks

Plain Language Summary Metallurgical coal (met coal; consumed to produce coke for steelmaking) must meet specific chemical and physical specifications. In 2023, the conterminous United States produced 66 million short tons (mst) of met coal, consumed 15.85 mst domestically, exported 51.1 mst, and imported 0.7 mst. Most met coal was produced in the Appalachian Basin, but there are also resources that meet the specifications for met coal in the Western United States.

conterminous United States

Concentration-discharge relations and transient metal loads reveal spatiotemporal variability in solute-generation mechanisms in a mine-affected watershed

Concentration-discharge (CQ) relations are commonly used to understand geochemical and hydrologic controls on the generation of solutes in watersheds. Despite the widespread application of CQ relations, this technique has been infrequently applied to acid mine drainage (AMD) sites, but the CQ framework may allow mechanistic understanding of remedial outcomes such as impoundment of water within underground mines. Results of CQ analyses and changes in metal loads in an AMD affected watershed in Colorado, USA indicate that dissolved loads increased at many individual locations following water impoundment within mine workings. Although increased loads were observed at most individual locations, these increases were offset by a large decrease in loading from the largest mine. A loading analysis that included data from an instream monitoring location showed a statistically significant decrease in Fe and Zn after bulkhead emplacement, indicating a net positive effect of bulkheads. Streams generally displayed dilution CQ patterns whereas mines and springs showed either flushing or chemostatic patterns prior to bulkheading, which transitioned to chemostatic patterns following bulkheading, indicating a transition from dynamic to equilibrium geochemical processes. Saturation indices for sulfide and secondary minerals indicated that mines and springs were near equilibrium for phases including schwertmannite, fluorite, and gypsum. Saturation indices vary through time for mines suggesting progressive leaching of sulfide minerals as the mass of available minerals in the mine workings decreases. Together, these diverse analyses provide an integrated understanding of the variability in solute generating processes in this watershed and may inform remediation plans for similarly affected sites by indicating the nature of mineralogic controls on water quality.

Colorado

Greater sage-grouse habitat of Nevada and northeastern California—Integrating space use, habitat selection, and survival indices to guide areas for habitat management

Executive Summary Greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are threatened by a suite of disturbances and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to a net loss of sagebrush-dominant shrub cover in recent decades. Declines in sage-grouse populations are largely linked to habitat loss across their range. A key component of conservation and land use planning efforts for sage-grouse involves the continued monitoring and modeling of habitat requirements and suitability across its range. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is addressing the management of sage-grouse habitats on BLM-authorized public lands throughout the western United States through a land use planning amendment and associated environmental impact statement (86 FR 66331). More than 25 percent of the range-wide distribution of sage-grouse is within Nevada and northeastern California, and information on sage-grouse distribution and habitat requirements is important to guide appropriate management decisions. Therefore, the BLM has identified the need for updated spatially explicit information on sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California to guide the land use planning amendment and associated management decisions. To address this need, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, in close cooperation with multiple State and Federal resource agency partners, including BLM, Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), sought to map sage-grouse distribution and produce example habitat designations in these states. Herein, we report results of our primary study objective, which was to map sage-grouse habitat and create example habitat management areas, based on more than a decade of location and survival data collected from marked sage-grouse across the study region coupled with lek count survey data managed by the NDOW and the CDFW. We expanded on previously developed methodology to incorporate information on habitat selection and survival during reproductive life stages and specific seasons with updated sage-grouse location and known fate datasets, while also including brood-rearing areas that are understood to be threatened and important for population persistence. We combined predictive habitat map surfaces for each life stage and season with updated information on current occupancy patterns to classify habitat based on its suitability and probability of occupancy. We carried out additional steps to delineate specific example habitat management areas, specifically (1) incorporated corridors connecting key nesting and brood-rearing habitat, (2) corrected outputs for pre-wildfire habitat conditions within areas burned in the last 16 years, and (3) masked out areas of anthropogenic development. Our methodological example of deriving habitat management areas was intended to help inform decisions by BLM and other land managers regarding conservation and management of sage-grouse. Associated data products in the form of habitat maps provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information about the status of habitats and can be useful to partner agencies in their efforts to designate and rank habitats for this species of high conservation concern in Nevada and California, with full recognition that on-the-ground field data and local sources of information and expertise should be used in conjunction with inferences from these models.

California, Idaho, Nevada

Bølling-Allerød productivity in the subarctic Pacific driven by seasonal upwelling

The Bølling-Allerød deglacial event is marked by high diatom productivity and opal deposition throughout the subarctic Pacific. This opal could either constitute a strengthened biological pump and thus carbon sequestration, or a weakened biological pump and release of marine-sequestered CO 2 to the atmosphere. We quantify silicic acid supply at IODP Site U1340 in the Bering Sea using biogenic opal and δ 30 Si of Coscinodiscus , a diatom genus. These records, along with diatom environmental indicators, suggest the Bølling-Allerød had high silicic acid availability related to a shift from stratification to seasonal upwelling dynamics. We thus propose the primary cause of the high productivity event was increased macronutrient supply from vertical exchange that injected old, nutrient-rich, CO 2 -rich waters into the surface. Enhanced CO 2 release from the subarctic Pacific may help explain critical intervals of CO 2 rise that occur at the onsets of the Bølling-Allerød and PreBoreal.

Geophysical Research Letters

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular

Integrity of production wells and confining unit at the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant, Dallas, Texas, 1995

Ground water in the shallow alluvial aquifer is contaminated at the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant, Dallas, Texas. Five production wells at the site are cased through the alluvial aquifer and underlying units and are screened in either the Paluxy or Twin Mountains aquifers. Three abandoned wells, originally completed in the Twin Mountains aquifer but filled with drilling mud in 1958, also penetrate the alluvial aquifer. The Paluxy and Twin Mountains aquifers are used for drinking-water supplies in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Trichloroethylene and its degradation products, dichloroethylene and vinyl chloride, and the metal chromium previously have been detected in the shallow alluvial aquifer. Current (1995) analyses of water-quality samples taken from the static water column of the five production wells and one of the abandoned wells indicate no trichloroethylene, dichloroethylene, or vinyl chloride in the water column of these wells. Chromium was detected in all samples, but concentrations were less than the practical quantitation limit, which is the regulatory action level for this site. The results of borehole geophysical log analysis indicate that two of the production wells could have vertically connected intervals where cement bonding in the well annulus is poor. The other production wells have overall good bonding. Temperature logs do not indicate flow behind casing except in the screened interval of one well. Geophysical logs show the Eagle Ford Shale ranges from 147 to 185 feet thick at the site. The Eagle Ford Shale has low permeability and a high plasticity index. These physical characteristics make the Eagle Ford Shale an excellent confining unit.

Texas

Update of the 2008 provisional Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) assessment for the Great Basin, USA

In response to the Energy Act of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource assessment for the Great Basin, USA. The previous 2008 provisional assessment estimated how much electricity could be generated from EGS resources of the western United States using models of electric-grade heat, models of heat extraction over time, and estimates of how much rock might be stimulated to produce viable amounts of heat. Herein, a similar conceptual strategy is applied, using updated models of heat extraction as a function of fracture spacing and well distance. Previously used reservoir heat delivery models are updated to have a dependence on fracture and well spacing, potentially improving future estimates of EGS resources as ongoing research provides a better understanding about the success of reservoir stimulation as a function of geology and location. For a range of well distances (250-1000 m) and fracture spacings (1-50 m), heat extraction efficiency ranges from 25-62%, demonstrating the importance of accounting for the most likely results of proven viable fracturing technologies. Although fracturing is important, the biggest uncertainty by far in estimating the EGS resource for the Great Basin is estimating which geologic units at what depths can be stimulated sufficiently to produce geothermal energy economically and efficiently. Uncertainties in these factors yield estimates that range over two orders of magnitude with an upper limit of ~174 terawatts-thermal (TWth) produced for 30 years from the upper 7 km of the crust. This upper limit would require significant technological advances to access most of the electric-grade resource across the Great Basin. Assuming that 1% of this estimate will be accessible in the next few decades gives a resource estimate similar to that made in the 2008 provisional assessment. These estimated EGS heat extraction rates far exceed ( greater than 100x) the natural geothermal heat production rate, thus geothermal electricity production at these rates might not be sustainable unless heat is also recharged from other sources (e.g., excess solar energy when supply exceeds demand). In addition to assessment maps and cumulative estimates, the new models of fractured reservoirs developed herein can be used to estimate steady power production given a set of fractures and well spacing, and estimates can be made for setback distances to ensure no thermal interference with nearby powerplants.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah