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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2021

Methanogens and their syntrophic partners dominate zones of enhanced magnetic susceptibility at a petroleum contaminated site

Geophysical investigations documenting enhanced magnetic susceptibility (MS) within the water table fluctuation zone at hydrocarbon contaminated sites suggest that MS can be used as a proxy for investigating microbial mediated iron reduction during intrinsic bioremediation. Here, we investigated the microbial community composition over a 5-year period at a hydrocarbon-contaminated site that exhibited transient elevated MS responses. Our objective was to determine the key microbial populations in zones of elevated MS. We retrieved sediment cores from the petroleum-contaminated site near Bemidji, MN, United States, and performed MS measurements on these cores. We also characterized the microbial community composition by high-throughput 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing from samples collected along the complete core length. Our spatial and temporal analysis revealed that the microbial community composition was generally stable throughout the period of investigation. In addition, we observed distinct vertical redox zonations extending from the upper vadose zone into the saturated zone. These distinct redox zonations were concomitant with the dominant microbial metabolic processes as follows: (1) the upper vadose zone was dominated by aerobic microbial populations; (2) the lower vadose zone was dominated by methanotrophic populations, iron reducers and iron oxidizers; (3) the smear zone was dominated by iron reducers; and (4) the free product zone was dominated by syntrophic and methanogenic populations. Although the common notion is that high MS values are caused by high magnetite concentrations that can be biotically formed through the activities of iron-reducing bacteria, here we show that the highest magnetic susceptibilities were measured in the free-phase petroleum zone, where a methanogenic community was predominant. This field study may contribute to the emerging knowledge that methanogens can switch their metabolism from methanogenesis to iron reduction with associated magnetite precipitation in hydrocarbon contaminated sediments. Thus, geophysical methods such as MS may help to identify zones where iron cycling/reduction by methanogens is occurring.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2021

The Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site and ruptures crossing the boundary between the Provo and Salt Lake City segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, United States

How structural segment boundaries modulate earthquake behavior is an important scientific and societal question, especially for the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) where urban areas lie along multiple fault segments. The extent to which segment boundaries arrest ruptures, host moderate magnitude earthquakes, or transmit ruptures to adjacent fault segments is critical for understanding seismic hazard. To help address this outstanding issue, we conducted a paleoseismic investigation at the Traverse Ridge paleoseismic site (TR site) along the ∼7-km-long Fort Canyon segment boundary, which links the Provo (59 km) and Salt Lake City (40 km) segments of the WFZ. At the TR site, we logged two trenches which were cut across sub-parallel traces of the fault, separated by ∼175 m. Evidence from these exposures leads us to infer that at least 3 to 4 earthquakes have ruptured across the segment boundary in the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating of soil material developed below and above fault scarp colluvial packages and within a filled fissure constrains the age of the events. The most recent event ruptured the southern fault trace between 0.2 and 0.4 ka, the penultimate event ruptured the northern fault trace between 0.6 and 3.4 ka, and two prior events occurred between 1.4 and 6.2 ka (on the southern fault trace) and 7.2 and 8.1 ka (northern fault trace). Colluvial wedge heights of these events ranged from 0.7 to 1.2 m, indicating the segment boundary experiences surface ruptures with more than 1 m of vertical displacement. Given these estimates, we infer that these events were greater than Mw 6.7, with rupture extending across the entire segment boundary and portions of one or both adjacent fault segments. The Holocene recurrence of events at the TR site is lower than the closest paleoseismic sites at the adjacent fault segment endpoints. The contrasts in recurrence rates observed within 15 km of the Fort Canyon fault segment boundary may be explained conceptually by a leaky segment boundary model which permits spillover events, ruptures centered on the segment boundary, and segmented ruptures. The TR site demonstrates the utility of paleoseismology within segment boundaries which, through corroboration of displacement data, can demonstrate rupture connectivity between fault segments and test the validity of rupture models.

Utah↗
USGS2021

Rapid-response unsaturated zone hydrology: Small-scale data, small-scale theory, big problems

The unsaturated zone (UZ) extends across the Earth’s terrestrial surface and is central to many problems related to land and water resource management. Flow of water through the UZ is typically thought to be slow and diffusive, such that it could attenuate fluxes and dampen variability between atmospheric inputs and underlying aquifer systems. This would reduce water resource vulnerability to contaminants and water-related hazards. Reducing or negating that effect, however, spatially concentrated and rapid flow and transport through the unsaturated zone is surprisingly common and becoming more so with the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme hydroclimatic events. Arising from the wide range in the rates and complex modes of nonlinear flow processes, these effects are among the most poorly characterized hydrologic phenomena. Issues of scale present additional difficulties. Equations representing unsaturated processes have been developed and tested on the basis of field and laboratory measurements typically made at scales from pore size to plot size. In contrast, related problems of significant interest to society, including floods, aquifer recharge, landslides, and groundwater contamination, range from watershed to regional scales. The disparity between the scale of our understanding and the scale of interest for societal problems has spurred application of these model equations at increasingly coarse resolutions over larger areas than can be justified by existing measurements or theory. This mismatch in scales requires an assumption that spatially averaging slow diffusive flow and rapid preferential flow can effectively represent the influence of both processes across vast areas. Given the currently inadequate recognition and quantitative characterization of focused and rapid processes in unsaturated flow, these phenomena are critically in need of expanded attention and effort.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2021

Local explosion detection and infrasound localization by reverse time migration using 3-D finite-difference wave propagation

Infrasound data are routinely used to detect and locate volcanic and other explosions, using both arrays and single sensor networks. However, at local distances (<15 km) topography often complicates acoustic propagation, resulting in inaccurate acoustic travel times leading to biased source locations when assuming straight-line propagation. Here we present a new method, termed Reverse Time Migration-Finite-Difference Time Domain (RTM-FDTD), that integrates numerical modeling into the standard RTM back-projection process. Travel time information is computed across the entire potential source grid via FDTD modeling to incorporate the effects of topography. The waveforms are then back-projected and stacked at each grid point, with the stack maximum corresponding to the likely source. We apply our method to three volcanoes with different network configurations, source-receiver distances, and topography. At Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu, RTM-FDTD locates explosions within ∼20 m of the source and differentiates between multiple vents. RTM-FDTD produces a more accurate location for the two Yasur subcraters than standard RTM and doubles the number of detected events. At Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, RTM-FDTD locates the source within 50 m of the active vent despite notable topographic blocking. The RTM-FDTD location is similar to that from the Time Reversal Mirror method, but is more computationally efficient. Lastly, at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, RTM and RTM-FDTD both produce realistic source locations (<50 m) for ground-coupled airwaves recorded on a four-station seismic network. We show that RTM is an effective method to detect and locate infrasonic sources across a variety of scenarios, and by integrating numerical modeling, RTM-FDTD produces more accurate source locations and increases the detection capability.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

A multidisciplinary investigation into the eruptive style, processes, and duration of a Cascades back-arc tholeiitic basalt: A case study of the Brushy Butte flow field, northern California, United States

The Cascades back-arc in northern California is dominated by monogenetic tholeiitic basalts that erupted throughout the Pleistocene. Elucidating their eruptive history and processes is important for understanding potential future eruptions here. We focus on the well-exposed monogenetic volcano that emplaced the Brushy Butte flow field, which constructed a ∼150 m tall edifice, has flow lobes up to >10 km long, and in total covers ∼150 km 2 with an eruptive volume of 3.5 km 3 . We use a multidisciplinary approach of field mapping, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, geochronology, and lidar imagery to unravel the eruptive history and processes that emplaced this flow field. Tholeiitic basalts in northern California have diverse surface morphology and vegetation cover but similar petrographic appearances, which makes them hard to distinguish in the field. Geochemistry and paleomagnetism offer an independent means of distinguishing tholeiitic basalts. Brushy Butte flow field lavas are similar in major-oxide and trace-element abundances but differ from adjacent tholeiitic basalts. This is also apparent in remanent magnetic directions. Additionally, paleomagnetism indicates that the flow field was emplaced during a geologically brief time interval (10–20 years), which 36 Cl cosmogenic dating puts at 35.7 ± 1.7 ka. Lidar imagery shows that these flows erupted from at least 28 vents encompassing multiple scoria cones, spatter cones, and craters. Flows can be grouped into four pulses using stratigraphic position and volume. Pulse 1 is the most voluminous, comprising eight eruptions and ∼2.3 km 3 . Each subsequent pulse started rapidly but decayed quickly, and each successive pulse erupted less lava (i.e., 2.3 km 3 for pulse 1, 0.6 km 3 for pulse 2, 0.3 km 3 for pulse 3, and 0.2 km 3 for pulse 4). Many of these flows host well-established lava channels and levees (with channel breakouts) that lead to lava fans, with some flows hosting lava ponds. Similar flow features from tholeiitic eruptions elsewhere demonstrate that these morphologies generally occur over weeks, months, or longer (e.g., Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption at K–llauea, Hawaiʻi). This multidisciplinary study shows the range of eruptive styles and durations of a Cascades back-arc eruption and illustrates how potential future tholeiitic eruptive activity in the western United States might progress.

California↗
USGS2021

Recency of faulting and subsurface architecture of the San Diego Bay pull-apart basin, California, USA

In southern California, plate boundary motion between the North American and Pacific plates is distributed across several sub-parallel fault systems. The offshore faults of the California Continental Borderland (CCB) are thought to accommodate ~10-15% of the total plate boundary motion, but the exact distribution of slip and the mechanics of slip partitioning remain uncertain. The Newport-Inglewood-Rose Canyon fault is the easternmost fault within the CCB whose southern segment splays out into a complex network of faults beneath San Diego Bay. A pull-apart basin model between the Rose Canyon and the offshore Descanso fault has been used to explain prominent fault orientations and subsidence beneath San Diego Bay; however this model does not account for faults in the southern portion of the bay or faulting east of the bay. To investigate the characteristics of faulting and stratigraphic architecture beneath San Diego Bay, we combined a suite of reprocessed legacy airgun multi-channel seismic profiles and high-resolution Chirp data, with age and lithology controls from geotechnical boreholes and shallow sub-surface vibracores. This combined dataset is used to create gridded horizon surfaces, fault maps, and perform a kinematic fault analysis. The structure beneath San Diego Bay is dominated by down-to-the-east motion on normal faults that can be separated into two distinct groups. The strikes of these two fault groups can be explained with a double pull-apart basin model for San Diego Bay. In our conceptual model, the western portion of San Diego Bay is controlled by a right-step between the Rose Canyon and Descanso faults, which matches both observations and predictions from laboratory models. The eastern portion of San Diego Bay appears to be controlled by an inferred step-over between the Rose Canyon and San Miguel-Vallecitos faults and displays distinct fault strike orientations, which kinematic analysis indicates should have a significant component of strike-slip partitioning that is not detectable in the seismic data. The potential of a Rose Canyon-San Miguel-Vallecitos fault connection would effectively cut the stepover distance in half and have important implications for the seismic hazard of the San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area (population ~3 million people).

California↗
USGS2021

Monochromatic long-period seismicity prior to the 2012 earthquake swarm at Little Sitkin Volcano, Alaska

Detection of the earliest stages of unrest is one of the most challenging and yet critically needed aspects of volcano monitoring. We investigate a sequence of five unusual long-period (LP) earthquakes that occurred in the days prior to the onset of a months-long volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake swarm beneath Little Sitkin volcano in the Aleutian Islands during late 2012. The long-period earthquakes had two distinctive characteristics: their signals were dominated by a monochromatic spectral peak at approximately 0.57 Hz and they had impulsive P and S-wave arrivals on a seismometer located on Amchitka Island 80 km to the southeast of the volcano. In each case, the monochromatic earthquakes ended with a higher-frequency event after approximately 2 min of duration. We find evidence that the five monochromatic LP earthquakes resulted from the resonance of a tabular magma body at middle crustal depths (15 km) on the western side of Little Sitkin. Based on the resonant frequency and quality factor of the monochromatic LP earthquakes, we infer the magma body to have a lateral extent of 500 m and a thickness of 9 m. We interpret that a magmatic intrusion excited the monochromatic LP earthquakes and subsequently increased the stress beneath the volcano, leading to the onset of the shallow (<10 km depth) VT swarm five days later.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Selected crater and small caldera lakes in Alaska: Characteristics and hazards

This study addresses the characteristics, potential hazards, and both eruptive and non-eruptive role of water at selected volcanic crater lakes in Alaska. Crater lakes are an important feature of some stratovolcanoes in Alaska. Of the volcanoes in the state with known Holocene eruptive activity, about one third have summit crater lakes. Also included are two volcanoes with small caldera lakes (Katmai, Kaguyak). The lakes play an important but not well studied role in influencing eruptive behavior and pose some significant hydrologic hazards. Floods from crater lakes in Alaska are evaluated by estimating maximum potential crater lake water volumes and peak outflow discharge with a dam-break model. Some recent eruptions and hydrologic events that involved crater lakes also are reviewed. The large volumes of water potentially hosted by crater lakes in Alaska indicate that significant flowage hazards resulting from catastrophic breaching of crater rims are possible. Estimates of maximum peak flood discharge associated with breaching of lake-filled craters derived from dam-break modeling indicate that flood magnitudes could be as large as 10 3 –10 6 m 3 /s if summit crater lakes drain rapidly when at maximum volume. Many of the Alaska crater lakes discussed are situated in hydrothermally altered craters characterized by complex assemblages of stratified unconsolidated volcaniclastic deposits, in a region known for large magnitude (>M7) earthquakes. Although there are only a few historical examples of eruptions involving crater lakes in Alaska, these provide noteworthy examples of the role of external water in cooling pyroclastic deposits, acidic crater-lake drainage, and water-related hazards such as lahars and base surge.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Submarine landslide susceptibility mapping in recently deglaciated terrain, Glacier Bay, Alaska

Submarine mass wasting events have damaged underwater structures and propagated waves that have inundated towns and affected human populations in nearby coastal areas. Susceptibility to submarine landslides can be pronounced in degrading cryospheric environments, where existing glaciers can provide high volumes of sediment, while cycles of glaciation and ice-loss can damage and destabilize slopes. Despite their contribution to potential tsunami hazard, submarine landslides can be difficult to study because of limited access and data collection in underwater environments. Here we present a method to quantify and map the submarine landslide susceptibility of sediment-covered slopes in Glacier Bay, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, using multibeam-sonar bathymetric digital elevation models (DEMs) and historical maps of glacial extents over the last ∼250 years. After mapping an inventory of >7,000 landslide scarps in submarine sediments, we filtered the inventory by size to account for limitations in DEM resolution and spatial scales relevant to tsunami hazards. We then assessed landslide concentration, accounting for the age of the initial exposure of submarine slopes by deglaciation. We found a positive correlation between landslide concentration and deglaciation age, which we interpreted as a mean landslide accumulation rate over the period of record. Local deviations from this rate indicated differences in susceptibility. Additionally, we accounted for some of the effect of material and morphometric properties by estimating the submarine bedrock-sediment distribution using a morphometric model and assessing the relationship between slope angle and landslide incidence. Finally, we supplemented our susceptibility assessment with a geomorphic component based on the propensity of active submarine fans and deltas to produce landslides. Thus, our map of submarine landslide susceptibility incorporates three components: age-adjusted landslide concentration, slope angle, and geomorphology. We find that areas of mapped high susceptibility correlate broadly with areas of high sediment input and availability, locations of fans and deltas, and steep sediment-covered glacially carved fjords and troughs. Areas of high submarine landslide susceptibility in Glacier Bay moderately correspond with locations of known high-hazard subaerial slopes, but more research on submarine and subaerial landslides in degrading cryospheric environments would be beneficial to better understand landslide and tsunami hazards.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Depositional controls on detrital zircon provenance: An example from upper Cretaceous strata, southern Patagonia

Understanding how depositional environments within a sedimentary system redistribute and sequester sediment is critical for interpreting basin-scale provenance trends. However, sedimentary source-to-sink models commonly examine temporal changes and do not consider how variation in sedimentation processes across a dispersal pathway may result in contrasting provenance signatures. In this paper, we demonstrate a down-paleoslope shift in detrital zircon provenance signatures correlated with shallow-marine lithofacies patterns from the Upper Cretaceous La Anita Formation and underlying continental slope lithofacies of the Alta Vista Formation (Magallanes-Austral Basin, southern Patagonia). New stratigraphic, sedimentologic, and lithofacies analysis results from the La Anita Formation suggest an upward shoaling succession, from a (i) storm-influenced shoreface, (ii) fluvially-dominated, wave-influenced delta, and a (iii) high-energy, gravelly foreshore. Stratigraphic sections are paired with U-Pb detrital zircon sandstone samples (N = 20; n = 5219), which provide both maximum depositional ages and provenance characteristics. While all samples contain abundant zircon derived from the Andean volcanic arc (ca. 145–75 Ma), the amount from both Jurassic distal volcanic massifs (ca. 188–162 Ma) and recycled orogenic sources exhumed during the advance of the Cretaceous fold-and-thrust belt (>200 Ma; 157–142 Ma) vary with changes in depositional environment. We argue that down-paleoslope, systematic enriching of local fold-and-thrust belt material within the La Anita Formation is reflective of progressive mixing of grains transported via shallow-marine processes, while distally enriched fluvio-deltaic transported zircons were sourced from large, regional catchments. This suggests that competition between transport processes across a shallow and marginal marine sequence of rocks affects the resulting provenance signatures recorded within a single stratigraphic succession. These data also detail the degree of sediment pathway connectivity between shallow-marine sources and deep-marine sinks. Detrital zircon results from muddy continental slope facies of the Alta Vista Formation are made up entirely locally derived material, while zircon results from deep-water, sand-rich channel facies of the Formation are indistinguishable from coeval fluvio-deltaic zircon signatures. This implies that continental shelf-to-slope connectivity in a sediment dispersal system, via submarine canyons or shelf-edge delta progradation, is necessary for detrital zircon distributions from the shallow-marine realm to propagate into the deeper marine.

Patagonia↗
USGS2022

Barkley Canyon gas hydrates: A synthesis based on two decades of seafloor observation and remote sensing

Barkley Canyon is one of the few known sites worldwide with the occurrence of thermogenic gas seepage and formation of structure-II and structure-H gas hydrate mounds on the seafloor. This site is the location of continuous seafloor monitoring as part of the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) cabled observatory off the west coast off Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We combine repeat remotely operated vehicle (ROV) seafloor video observations, mapping with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), ship-, ROV-, and AUV-based identification of gas flares, as well as seismic and Chirp data to investigate the distribution of fluid migration pathways. Geologically, the site with the prominent gas hydrate mounds and associated fluid seepage is covering an area of ∼0.15 km 2 and is situated on a remnant of a rotated fault block that had slipped off the steep flanks of the north-east facing canyon wall. The gas hydrate mounds, nearly constant in dimension over the entire observation period, are associated with gas and oil seepage and surrounded by debris of chemosynthetic communities and authigenic carbonate. The formation of gas hydrate at and near the seafloor requires additional accommodation space created by forming blisters at the seafloor that displace the regular sediments. An additional zone located centrally on the rotated fault block with more diffuse seepage (∼0.02 km 2 in extent) has been identified with no visible mounds, but with bacterial mats, small carbonate concretions, and clam beds. Gas venting is seen acoustically in the water column up to a depth of ∼300 m. However, acoustic water-column imaging during coring and ROV dives showed rising gas bubbles to much shallower depth, even <50 m, likely a result of degassing of rising oil droplets, which themselves cannot be seen acoustically. Combining all observations, the location of the gas hydrate mounds is controlled by a combination of fault-focused fluid migration from a deeper reservoir and fluid seepage along more permeable strata within the rotated slope block. Fluids must be provided continuously to allow the sustained presence of the gas hydrate mounds at the seafloor.

Barkley Canyon↗
USGS2022

HydroBench: Jupyter supported reproducible hydrological model benchmarking and diagnostic tool

Evaluating whether hydrological models are right for the right reasons demands reproducible model benchmarking and diagnostics that evaluate not just statistical predictive model performance but also internal processes. Such model benchmarking and diagnostic efforts will benefit from standardized methods and ready-to-use toolkits. Using the Jupyter platform, this work presents HydroBench, a model-agnostic benchmarking tool consisting of three sets of metrics: 1) common statistical predictive measures, 2) hydrological signature-based process metrics, including a new time-linked flow duration curve and 3) information-theoretic diagnostics that measure the flow of information among model variables. As a test case, HydroBench was applied to compare two model products (calibrated and uncalibrated) of the National Hydrologic Model - Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (NHM-PRMS) at the Cedar River watershed, WA, United States. Although the uncalibrated model has the highest predictive performance, particularly for high flows, the signature-based diagnostics showed that the model overestimates low flows and poorly represents the recession processes. Elucidating why low flows may have been overestimated, the information-theoretic diagnostics indicated a higher flow of information from precipitation to snowmelt to streamflow in the uncalibrated model compared to the calibrated model, where information flowed more directly from precipitation to streamflow. This test case demonstrated the capability of HydroBench in process diagnostics and model predictive and functional performance evaluations, along with their tradeoffs. Having such a model benchmarking tool not only provides modelers with a comprehensive model evaluation system but also provides an open-source tool that can further be developed by the hydrological community.

Frontiers in Earth Sciences↗
USGS2022

Modflow-setup: Robust automation of groundwater model construction

In an age of both big data and increasing strain on water resources, sound management decisions often rely on numerical models. Numerical models provide a physics-based framework for assimilating and making sense of information that by itself only provides a limited description of the hydrologic system. Often, numerical models are the best option for quantifying even intuitively obvious connections between human activities and water resource impacts. However, despite many recent advances in model data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, the process of constructing numerical models remains laborious, expensive, and opaque, often precluding their use in decision making. Modflow-setup aims to provide rapid and consistent construction of MODFLOW groundwater models through robust and repeatable automation. Common model construction tasks are distilled in an open-source, online code base that is tested and extensible through collaborative version control. Input to Modflow-setup consists of a single configuration file that summarizes the workflow for building a model, including source data, construction options, and output packages. Source data providing model structure and parameter information including shapefiles, rasters, NetCDF files, tables, and other (geolocated) sources to MODFLOW models are read in and mapped to the model discretization, using Flopy and other general open-source scientific Python libraries. In a few minutes, an external array-based MODFLOW model amenable to parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification is produced. This paper describes the core functionality of Modflow-setup, including a worked example of a MODFLOW 6 model for evaluating pumping impacts to a lake in central Wisconsin, United States.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Stratigraphy and eruption history of maars in the Clear Lake Volcanic Field, California

The Clear Lake Volcanic Field (CLVF) is the northernmost and youngest field in a chain of volcanic provinces in the California Coast Range mountains. Effusive and explosive volcanic activity in the field has spanned at least 2.1 million years, with the youngest eruptions comprising a series of maar craters at the edges of, and within, Clear Lake itself. This work documents the first direct ages for many of these maar deposits, and builds the stratigraphic basis for interpreting eruptive processes and dynamics of the young eruptions which produced them. Detailed stratigraphy has distinguished maar eruption products from pyroclastic deposits (monolithologic falls and flows, previously mapped together with maars as a single unit), and established a set of 6 eruption facies from maar deposit lithology, grain size parameters, and depositional structures. Radiocarbon dates from carbon films found on clasts at 3 outcrops have constrained several of these maar eruptions to ~8500-13,500 years BP, coinciding with eruptive periods previously estimated based on lake core tephrachronology. Part of this period also coincides with indigenous occupation (< 12,000 years BP), which suggests that oral histories of Pomo and other local tribes may contain descriptions of volcanic phenomena experienced by local residents of the CLVF. Collaboration between volcanologists and indigenous historians may add a valuable human dimension to the youngest eruptions of the Clear Lake Volcanic Field; combined, geologic and ethnographic avenues of research will help build a richer eruption history for future volcanic hazard assessment.

California↗
USGS2022

Forecasting and communicating the dispersion and fallout of ash during volcanic eruptions: lessons from the September 20, 2020 eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano, Ecuador

Volcanic ash is a hazard to human health and activities. Accurate and timely forecasts coupled with effective communication about the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash during explosive events are essential to reduce impacts on local communities and limit economic losses. In this study, we present the first detailed description of an eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano and its eruption source parameters. The eruptive pulse on September 20, 2020, started at about 9:20 UTC and lasted between 90 and 100 min, producing an eruptive column that rapidly separated into (1) a higher (15.2 km above sea level, asl), gas-rich cloud moving east-southeast and (2) a lower (12.2 km asl), ash-rich cloud moving west and causing ash fallout up to 280 km from the volcano. Field data collected immediately after the event allow estimating the volume of bulk tephra to be between 1.5 and 5.0 × 10 6 m 3 , corresponding to a volcanic explosivity index of 2. The eruptive pulse, identified as violent Strombolian, emitted andesitic ash that was more mafic than products ejected by Sangay volcano in recent decades. Component analysis and glass chemistry of juvenile particles support the hypothesis that this event excavated deeper into the upper conduit compared to typical Strombolian activity at Sangay volcano, while grain-size analysis allows reconstruction of the total grain-size distribution of the fallout deposit. The discrepancies between the ash fallout simulations performed with the Ash3D online tool and the actual deposit are mainly the result of inaccurate pre- and syn-eruptive configurations and highlight the importance of additional processes such as aggregation. Communication products issued during the event included (1) several standard short reports, (2) volcano observatory notices for aviation, (3) social media posts, and (4) a special report providing the results of the ash fallout simulation. Although communication was effective with the authorities and the connected population, an effort must be made to reach the most vulnerable isolated communities for future events. This study shows that forecasting ash dispersion and fallout during volcanic eruptions can guide early warnings and trigger humanitarian actions, and should become a standard in volcano observatories worldwide.

Sangay volcano↗
USGS2022

A study on the effect of site response on California seismic hazard map assessment

Prior studies have repeatedly shown that probabilistic seismic hazard maps from several different countries predict higher shaking than that observed. Previous map assessments have not, however, considered the influence of site response on hazard. Seismologists have long acknowledged the influence of near-surface geology, in particular low-impedance sediment layers, on earthquake ground-motion at frequencies of engineering concern. Although the overall effects of site response are complex, modern ground-motion models (GMMs) account for site effects using terms based on V S30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the Earth’s surface. In this study, we consider general implications of incorporating site terms from modern GMMs using site-specific V S30 as a proxy in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for California. At the long periods (1–5 s) that affect tall buildings, site terms amplify the mapped hazard by factors of 1–3 at many sites relative to maps calculated for the standard reference soft-rock site condition, V S30 = 760 m/s. However, at the short periods of ground-motion that are the main contributors to peak ground acceleration (PGA) and thus affect smaller structures, only negligible effects occur due to nonlinear deamplification of strong ground-motion at high frequencies. Nonlinear deamplification increases as the shaking level increases. For very strong shaking, deamplification can overcome the linear amplification, yielding net deamplification. We explore the implications of these results for the evaluation of hazard maps. Because site effects do not change the maps appreciably at short periods, we can exclude site response as an explanation for why the maps overpredict historically observed shaking as captured by the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) dataset. The results are expected to be generalizable to regions that are comparable to California in terms of structure and seismicity rates. In low-to-moderate-seismicity regions where the hazard reflects weaker shaking, nonlinear site response is expected to be less important for the hazard.

California↗
USGS2022

Crustal permeability changes observed from seismic attenuation: Impacts on multi-mainshock sequences

We use amplitude ratios from narrowband-filtered earthquake seismograms to measure variations of seismic attenuation over time, providing unique insights into the dynamic state of stress in the Earth’s crust at depth. Our dataset from earthquakes of the 2016-2017 Central Apennines sequence allows us to obtain high-resolution time histories of seismic attenuation (frequency band: 0.5-30 Hz) characterized by strong earthquake dilatation-induced fluctuations at seismogenic depths, caused by the cumulative elastic stress drop after the sequence, as well as damage-induced ones at shallow depths caused by energetic surface waves. Cumulative stress drop causes negative dilatation, reduced permeability, and seismic attenuation, whereas strong-motion surface waves produce an increase in crack density, and so in permeability and seismic attenuation. In the aftermath of the main shocks of the sequence, we show that the M ≥ 3.5 earthquake occurrence vs. time and distance is consistent with fluid diffusion: diffusion signatures are associated with changes in seismic attenuation during the first days of the Amatrice, Visso-Norcia, and Capitignano sub-sequences. We hypothesize that coseismic permeability changes create fluid diffusion pathways that are at least partly responsible for triggering multi-mainshock seismic sequences. Here we show that anelastic seismic attenuation fluctuates coherently with our hypothesis.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗