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USGS2021

Recovering individual-level spatial inference from aggregated binary data

Binary regression models are commonly used in disciplines such as epidemiology and ecology to determine how spatial covariates influence individuals. In many studies, binary data are shared in a spatially aggregated form to protect privacy. For example, rather than reporting the location and result for each individual that was tested for a disease, researchers may report that a disease was detected or not detected within geopolitical units. Often, the spatial aggregation process obscures the values of response variables, spatial covariates, and locations of each individual, which makes recovering individual-level inference difficult. We show that applying a series of transformations, including a change of support, to a bivariate point process model allows researchers to recover individual-level inference for spatial covariates from spatially aggregated binary data. The series of transformations preserves the convenient interpretation of desirable binary regression models that are commonly applied to individual-level data. Using a simulation experiment, we compare the performance of our proposed method under varying types of spatial aggregation against the performance of standard approaches using the original individual-level data. We illustrate our method by modeling individual-level probability of infection using a data set that has been aggregated to protect an at-risk and endangered species of bats. Our simulation experiment and data illustration demonstrate the utility of the proposed method when access to original non-aggregated data is impractical or prohibited.

Northeast and Midwest United States↗
USGS2021

A machine learning approach to modeling streamflow with sparse data in ungaged watersheds on the Wyoming Range, Wyoming, 2012–17

Scant availability of streamflow data can impede the utility of streamflow as a variable in ecological models of aquatic and terrestrial species, especially when studying small streams in watersheds that lack streamgages. Streamflow data at fine resolution and broad extent were needed by collaborators for ecological research on small streams in several ungaged watersheds of southwestern Wyoming, where streamflow data are sparse. To improve the utility of sparse streamflow data to ecological research in ungaged watersheds, we developed a machine learning approach in R for modeling spatially and temporally continuous monthly streamflow from 2012 through 2017 in three semiarid montane-steppe watersheds (with drainage areas of 26–55 square miles and mean elevations of 8,031–8,455 feet) on the Wyoming Range in the upper Green River Basin. A machine learning streamflow (MLFLOW) model was calibrated and validated with 971 discrete streamflow observations and 24 static and dynamic predictor variables derived from geospatial and time series data on climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic characteristics affecting streamflow. The predictor variables were temporally and spatially conditioned to amplify the relation of predictor variables to monthly streamflow. The MLFLOW model had satisfactory agreement between observed and predicted streamflow (coefficient of determination [ R 2 ]=0.80, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE]=0.79, NSE with log-transformed data [logNSE]=0.82, and percent bias [PBIAS]=0.7 percent). NSE and logNSE indicated the MLFLOW model performed equally well for high and low flows, and PBIAS indicated the MLFLOW model did not overpredict or underpredict monthly streamflow. Streamflow predictions seemed to well represent the annual hydrograph within the study area during the study period. The most important variables (statistically important in the MLFLOW model) for explaining monthly streamflow were temporally and spatially conditioned dynamic climatic variables, mostly precipitation and snow water equivalent. Importance of the static and dynamic variables did not differ substantially among the three watersheds but differed considerably among the 6 years. Monthly streamflow increased with increasing precipitation, snow water equivalent, and drainage area but decreased with increasing forest cover, elevation, evapotranspiration, and temperature. The MLFLOW model was most sensitive to selection of dynamic climatic variables. Unconditioned dynamic climatic variables alone explained 54 percent of the variance ( R 2 =0.54) in monthly streamflow, whereas adding static physiographic and anthropogenic variables only explained 12 percent more of the variance ( R 2 =0.66). Also, spatial conditioning of all variables together with temporal conditioning of dynamic variables increased the variance explained in the MLFLOW model by another 14 percent ( R 2 =0.80). The MLFLOW model also had greater sensitivity to temporal than to spatial differences in the data. For the MLFLOW model trained with observations from all watersheds and years or for models trained with observations from all except one watershed or 1 year left out sequentially, performance was better in testing on observations from each watershed than from each year separately. Also, performance was better for models fitted to fewer sites than to fewer months of observations. The greatest utility of the modeling approach is the ease of use and the speed of processing input data, running the model, and interpreting the model output, whereas the greatest limitation is the need for spatially and temporally representative streamflow observations to drive the model. Although familiarity with R is necessary, only a working knowledge of hydrology (for selecting appropriate predictor variables and evaluating the quality of streamflow observations) and a rudimentary understanding of machine learning models are needed. Therefore, this modeling approach is practicable for other scientists who work with water but who are not hydrologists.

Wyoming↗
USGS2000

Would ecological landscape restoration make the Bandelier Wilderness more or less of a wilderness?

Is it appropriate to intervene in designated wilderness areas that have been "untrammeled by man" and, as a result, no longer retain their "primeval character and influence" as called for in the 1964 Wilderness Act? We explore this wilderness management dilemma - whether we can or should actively manage wilderness conditions to restore and protect wilderness and other values - by asking a series of questions relating to a wilderness area that is no longer "natural." Debate on this issue is not new, but is intensifying, since most wilderness areas in the continental United States are not pristine and ecosystem research has shown that conditions in many are deteriorating. Our case-study is a proposed large-scale project to restore pinon-juniper woodlands in the Bandelier Wilderness, which comprises more than 23,000 acres in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico.

New Mexico↗
USGS1979

Ecological and physiological/toxicological effects of petroleum on aquatic birds: A summary of research activities FY76 through FY78

Oil and gas development and exploration in marine coastal areas and the Great Lakes will result in unavoidable spills of polluting oil. Although large oil spills may kill thousands of birds and stimulate much public concern, the bulk of oil that reaches aquatic environmentS released in the course of normal operations, with a total input into the world's oceans estimated at 6 million metric tons per year. The effects of sublethal low-level oil pollution may be more deleterious to bird populations over the long term than the spectacular bird kills resulting from oil spills. The physiological and ecological effects of oil on waterbirds were examined in a series of laboratory and field experiments, including studies of the effects of oiling on hatchability of eggs; the effects of an oil-contaminated diet on physiological condition, reproduction, and survival; and the accumulation of oil in body tissues. Chemical methodology was developed in support of these studies.

FWS/OBS↗
USGS2012

A tale of two land uses in the American West: rural residential growth and energy development

This paper describes a spatiotemporal land use map for a rural county in the western United States. Sublette County, Wyoming has undergone recent land use change in the form of heightened rural residential development on private land and increased energy development on both public and private land. In this study we integrate energy production data, population census data, ownership parcel data, and a series of Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper scenes (over a 25-year period) to create a map that illustrates the changing landscape. Spatial change on the landscape is mapped at 30 square meters, congruent with a Landsat pixel. Sublette County has a wealth of wildlife and associated habitat which is affected by both types of growth. While we do not attempt to quantify the effect of disturbance on wildlife species, we believe our results can provide important baseline data that can be incorporated into land use planning and ecological-wildlife research at the landscape scale.

Journal of Maps↗
USGS2024

Annotated bibliography of scientific research relevant to oil and gas reclamation best management practices in the western United States, published from 1969 through 2020

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey has created a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for lands in the western United States (U.S.). Oil and gas development on public lands is a long-standing and substantial component of local and regional economies and has expanded in recent decades, particularly on public lands in the western U.S. This development is associated with extensive networks of pipelines, roads, and processing facilities, across which reclamation is Federally mandated following initial well pad development (“interim” reclamation) and once resource extraction is complete (“final” reclamation). Reclamation is critical for recovering ecological services to energy-affected lands, including vegetation productivity, wildlife habitat, water and air quality, and soil stability (for example, resistance to wind and water erosion). However, reclamation of oil and gas affected lands in the western U.S. has proved challenging due to an array of regulatory and environmental factors, such as minimally developed soils, short growing seasons, herbivory, high winds, invasive species, rugged terrain, and in particular, arid climates associated with low total precipitation, high evapotranspiration rates, and highly variable precipitation patterns. We compiled and summarized journal articles, government reports, technical reports, proceedings, and theses and dissertations relevant to oil and gas reclamation. We constrained our search to products published on or before December 31, 2020 but did not limit our search by a starting date; the earliest product resulting from this effort was published in March 1969. Second, we manually scanned the last 15 years (2005-2020) of tables of contents in journals, bibliographies, and proceedings of which we were aware would contain articles highly relevant to this bibliography. We carried out the search for these products through multiple means: (1) performing a structured search of two reference databases, (2) examining articles published since 2005 in highly relevant scientific journals and conference proceedings, and (3) reviewing additional material suggested by authors of products identified in steps 1 and 2. Our search was intentionally broad in order to identify as much relevant work as possible, much of which is professionally applied and tested within the industry of oil and gas reclamation, but which remains unpublished in scientific journals. We refined the initial list of products by removing: (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) products that were not relevant to the arid ecosystems of western North America, (4) products that were not released as research, data products, or review articles in journals or as formal scientific reports, and (5) products with data which were not relevant to reclamation of oil and gas-affected lands, or for which the study did not present new data, findings, or syntheses relevant to reclamation of oil and gas-affected lands. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assigned standardized management topics to each. Management topics are intended to aid online searching within the bibliography and are described in more detail in the Methods Section of this report; they include what type of disturbance the product addresses (well pads, mining, pipelines), what aspect of oil and gas reclamation they pertain to (practices, standards, monitoring), what type of data are present in the product (for instance soil or vegetation recovery data), and an indication if the product were from a source other than a published, peer-reviewed outlet (such as dissertations or unpublished professional reports – these are identified as grey literature). The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original product, and a formal peer-review. Our initial searches resulted in 3,197 total products, of which 290 met our criteria for inclusion. “Reclamation Practices” is by far the management topic most addressed, followed by “Reclamation Monitoring,” for example, products assessing what and how monitoring methods are used to track and measure reclamation outcome. This document may be accessed at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20231068 or from the U.S. Geological Survey Publication Warehouse ( https://pubs.usgs.gov/ ). The 1-page product summaries herein will also be used to create a bibliography at https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers that includes links to each original product, where available, and in which subject matter will be searchable by topic, location, and year. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to reclaim landscapes across the western U.S. which have been affected by oil and gas development.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Proceedings of the Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium

Foreword Glacier Bay was established as a National Monument in 1925, in part to protect its unique character and natural beauty, but also to create a natural laboratory to examine evolution of the glacial landscape. Today, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve is still a place of profound natural beauty and dynamic landscapes. It also remains a focal point for scientific research and includes continuing observations begun decades ago of glacial processes and terrestrial ecosystems. In recent years, research has focused on glacial-marine interactions and ecosystem processes that occur below the surface of the bay. In October 2004, Glacier Bay National Park convened the fourth in a series of science symposiums to provide an opportunity for researchers, managers, interpreters, educators, students and the general public to share knowledge about Glacier Bay. The Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium was held in Juneau, Alaska, rather than at the Park, reflecting a desire to maximize attendance and communication among a growing and diverse number of stakeholders interested in science in the park. More than 400 people attended the symposium. Participants provided 46 oral presentations and 41 posters covering a wide array of disciplines including geology, glaciology, oceanography, wildlife and fisheries biology, terrestrial and marine ecology, socio-cultural research and management issues. A panel discussion focused on the importance of connectivity in Glacier Bay research, and keynote speakers (Gary Davis and Terry Chapin) spoke of long-term monitoring and ecological processes. These proceedings include 56 papers from the symposium. A summary of the Glacier Bay Science Plan-itself a subject of a meeting during the symposium and the result of ongoing discussions between scientists and resource managers-also is provided. We hope these proceedings illustrate the diversity of completed and ongoing scientific studies, conducted within the Park. To this end, we invited all presenters to submit brief technical summaries of their work, to capture the gist of their study and its main findings without an overload of details and methodology. We also asked authors to include a few words on the management implications of their work to help bridge the gap between scientists and managers in understanding how specific research questions may translate to management practice. Papers in this volume are laid out by subject matter, from terrestrial and freshwater subjects to glacial-marine geology, to the ecology of marine animals and ending with risk assessment, human impacts and science-management considerations. In summary, we hope the proceedings will serve as a useful reference to completed and ongoing studies in Glacier Bay National Park, and thereby provide park enthusiasts, scientists, and managers with a road map of scientific progress.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2012

Adding the ocean to the study of seabirds: A brief history of at-sea seabird research

We review the history of how research directed towards marine ornithology has led to an appreciation of seabirds as highly specialized marine organisms. Beginning with R. C. Murphy (Pacific), V. C. Wynne-Edwards (Atlantic), and associates in the early 1900s, the research approach grew from an emphasis on seabird single-species ecology to an appreciation of interacting species assemblages and finally to seabirds being considered as important components of marine food webs. After a slow, drawn-out beginning, the initial main impetus for developing the field was a need to map seabird abundance and distribution tied to understanding impacts of continental shelf resource exploitation. Coalescing during the 1970s to 1980s to facilitate this line of research were 6 factors: (1) ability to identify birds at sea; (2) standardization of techniques to quantify abundance; (3) resources and techniques for mapping; (4) appreciation of how scale affects seabird relationships to hydrographic features and patchy prey; (5) development of computing power and appropriate statistics; and (6) seabird biologists becoming embedded in, as well as organizing, multidisciplinary marine research projects. Future advances in understanding the role of seabirds in marine food webs will be made by seabird biologists participating in multidisciplinary projects using grid-like surveys relative to oceanographic features in combination with instrumentation that reveals the finer details of seabird foraging behaviors.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2021

The application of metacommunity theory to the management of riverine ecosystems

River managers strive to use the best available science to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function. To achieve this goal requires consideration of processes at different scales. Metacommunity theory describes how multiple species from different communities potentially interact with local-scale environmental drivers to influence population dynamics and community structure. However, this body of knowledge has only rarely been used to inform management practices for river ecosystems. In this article, we present a conceptual model outlining how the metacommunity processes of local niche sorting and dispersal can influence the outcomes of management interventions and provide a series of specific recommendations for applying these ideas as well as research needs. In all cases, we identify situations where traditional approaches to riverine management could be enhanced by incorporating an understanding of metacommunity dynamics. A common theme is developing guidelines for assessing the metacommunity context of a site or region, evaluating how that context may affect the desired outcome, and incorporating that understanding into the planning process and methods used. To maximize the effectiveness of management activities, scientists, and resource managers should update the toolbox of approaches to riverine management to reflect theoretical advances in metacommunity ecology.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2025

The Grouse & Grazing Project: Effects of cattle grazing on demographic traits of greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) were once widespread within sagebrush -grassland ecosystems of western North America, but populations have declined since the mid-1960s. Though sage-grouse were not listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), when examined in 2015, they remain a species of interest and concern. Roughly half of the sage-grouse’s remaining habitat is on federal land, most of it managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Livestock grazing is the most extensive land use within sage-grouse habitat and the effects of livestock grazing on sage-grouse are often debated. The extensive decade-long research project summarized in this report was initiated to provide rigorous experimental research to inform the debate regarding the relationship between livestock grazing and sage-grouse. In 2012, the Idaho Grouse & Grazing Project was started with several partners including the University of Idaho, BLM, Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG), and other partners to evaluate the effects of cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates. Many additional supporters have provided resources to this research effort including the Public Lands Council, Idaho Cattle Association, Idaho Governor’s Office of Species Conservation, Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, USFS, and numerous grazing associations and ranchers in Idaho. This 10-year research project was a scientifically rigorous and replicated experiment, occurring across five study sites in Idaho. This document is intended to provide a summary of the findings of this unprecedented study. Annual reports are available on the project’s website: https://idahogrousegrazing.org and scientific papers are being prepared and submitted to journals. The project focused on the influence of spring cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates across five study sites in Idaho including 21 BLM grazing pastures. From 2014-2023, we captured 1,343 grouse, documented the fate of 1,285 nests, and tracked 399 broods. Vegetation was characterized at 4,777 plots and grazing utilization levels were recorded at >30,000 locations. Because insects are an important food source for sage-grouse hens and their chicks, insect biomass and diversity were also examined in this study. We collected arthropods in 12,151 pitfall samples and 6,217 sweep-net samples across 786 plots within our five study sites. At each study site, three or four grazing treatments were implemented after two years of pre-treatment field investigations. These controlled cattle grazing treatments included spring-grazing in even years, spring-grazing in odd years, spring-and-fall grazing in alternating years, and a no grazing (or rested) control. Once grazing treatments were implemented at a study site, we measured sage-grouse demographic traits for 4-8 years post-treatment. Stocking rate (grazing intensity) was assessed across pastures each year and was influenced by vegetation communities, topography, and water sources. Grazed pastures exhibited lower grass cover and height compared to the no grazing pastures, and the extent of this difference varied based on annual precipitation levels. Rested pastures maintained higher grass cover and grass height, but the differences in habitat structure did not consistently translate to differences in sage-grouse demographic traits. Apparent nesting success varied annually and by site, ranging from 24% to 44% over the study period. Like some other studies, results from this research show that successful (i.e., hatched) sage-grouse nests have taller grass heights than failed nests. The average grass height surrounding successful nests in grazed pastures was shorter than that surrounding successful nests in non-grazed (i.e., rested) pastures. It is well documented that grazing reduces grass height, and these observations have led to widely held assumptions that livestock grazing reduces grass height which negatively affects sage-grouse nesting habitat. At the pasture scale, this study has found that sage-grouse nesting success is no greater in pastures that were rested for 4-8 years than those currently or recently grazed. This study gives no indication that removing cattle from pastures affected nesting success. We found some evidence that nest density varied among the grazing treatments, but we did not see compelling evidence of increases in density of nesting hens following cessation of grazing in the no grazing treatments. Brood survival varied by site and year but showed no strong effect of grazing treatment. Climatic conditions, particularly drought in 2021, had a greater effect on brood survival than grazing metrics. We also found no differences in hen survival among the grazing treatments. Results of this study suggest that hens nesting in spring and fall grazed pastures had similar or even slightly higher brood survival than hens in the rested pastures or the spring grazed pastures. Arthropod biomass and species diversity varied among our study sites and the differences between grazed and rested pastures also varied among study sites. Average biomass and diversity of arthropods was higher in the spring grazed pastures on two of three sites examined but higher in the rested pastures on the other site examined. Some taxa of arthropods were more abundant in grazed pastures while other taxa were more abundant in rested pastures. For example, Carabidae (Ground Beetles) and Formicidae (Ants) had higher biomass in grazed pastures, while Tenebrionidae (Darkling Beetles) and Acrididae (Grasshoppers) had higher biomass in non-grazed pastures. Results indicate that grazing effects on arthropod biomass and arthropod diversity are study site-dependent, suggesting a need to better quantify the most important prey taxa for sage-grouse chicks and to better control for other factors that influence arthropod abundance. Based on results of this research, livestock grazing, when properly managed, does not appear to negatively impact sage-grouse nest survival or brood success. This study provides critical insights for land managers balancing livestock production with sage-grouse conservation, supporting adaptive grazing strategies that maintain both economic and ecological objectives.

Idaho↗
USGS2010

Cartographic Production for the FLaSH Map Study: Generation of Rugosity Grids, 2008

Project Summary This series of raster data is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data Series release from the Florida Shelf Habitat Project (FLaSH). This disc contains two raster images in Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) raster grid format, jpeg image format, and Geo-referenced Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF). Data is also provided in non-image ASCII format. Rugosity grids at two resolutions (250 m and 1000 m) were generated for West Florida shelf waters to 250 m using a custom algorithm that follows the methods of Valentine and others (2004). The Methods portion of this document describes the specific steps used to generate the raster images. Rugosity, also referred to as roughness, ruggedness, or the surface-area ratio (Riley and others, 1999; Wilson and others, 2007), is a visual and quantitative measurement of terrain complexity, a common variable in ecological habitat studies. The rugosity of an area can affect biota by influencing habitat, providing shelter from elements, determining the quantity and type of living space, influencing the type and quantity of flora, affecting predator-prey relationships by providing cover and concealment, and, as an expression of vertical relief, can influence local environmental conditions such as temperature and moisture. In the marine environment rugosity can furthermore influence current flow rate and direction, increase the residence time of water in an area through eddying and current deflection, influence local water conditions such as chemistry, turbidity, and temperature, and influence the rate and nature of sedimentary deposition. State-of-the-art computer-mapping techniques and data-processing tools were used to develop shelf-wide raster and vector data layers. Florida Shelf Habitat (FLaSH) Mapping Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/flash) endeavors to locate available data, identify data gaps, synthesize existing information, and expand our understanding of geologic processes in our dynamic coastal and marine systems.

Data Series↗
USGS2017

The Moquah Barrens Research Natural Area: Loss of a pine barrens ecosystem

The Moquah Barrens Research Natural Area (RNA) was established by the Chequamegon National Forest and the Lakes States Forest Experiment Station in 1935 with a research objective well-suited to the needs of the Forest Service and the scientific understanding of ecosystem function prevalent at the time of establishment. The original research plan was never implemented, which led to a joint Forest-Station decision in 1956 to disestablish the RNA. However, that decision was never implemented. A series of management decisions made after 1956 led to the loss of the pine barrens ecosystem originally encompassed by the RNA. This loss is not irretrievable and the work necessary to recover the original ecosystem is possible under existing RNA management guidelines. The experience of the Moquah Barrens RNA can be used by the Forest Service to improve overall management of the entire system of research natural areas. Two main areas of opportunity are identified: 1) implement an improved approach to managing official records associated with RNAs; and 2) adopt a management framework suitable for long-term ecological projects.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Great Lakes lake trout thiamine monitoring program annual report

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center, and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport have conducted in collaboration with partner agencies a cooperative program to monitor thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs since the late 1990s. In 2021, egg thiamine concentrations were highly variable at each sampling site. No eggs samples with thiamine concentrations less than the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful lake trout reproduction were collected in Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie, and Champlain. In contrast, every site in Lakes Michigan and Ontario and Cayuga Lake had some lake trout eggs below 4 nmol/g. Time series of mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations showed high temporal and spatial variability within the Great Lakes region.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Assessing the risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 in and via North American bats — Decision framing and rapid risk assessment

The novel β-coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, may pose a threat to North American bat populations if bats are exposed to the virus through interaction with humans, if the virus can subsequently infect bats and be transmitted among them, and if the virus causes morbidity or mortality in bats. Further, if SARS-CoV-2 became established in bat populations, it could possibly serve as a source for new infection in humans, domesticated animals, or other wild animals. Wildlife management agencies in the United States are concerned about these potential risks and have begun to issue guidance regarding work that brings humans into contact with bats, but decision making is difficult because of the high degree of uncertainty about many of the relevant processes that could lead to virus transmission and establishment. The risk assessment described in this report was undertaken to provide management agencies with an understanding of the likelihood that the various steps in the causal pathways would lead to SARS-CoV-2 infection of North American bats from people. This assessment focused on the active season for bats in the temperate zone of North America (April 15 through November 15), and used Myotis lucifugus (little brown bats) as a surrogate species. At the time of this work (April 2020), no empirical data about the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on North American bats were available, so a formal process of expert judgment was used to elicit estimates of the underlying parameters. Twelve experts in bat ecology, epidemiology, virology, and wildlife disease from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia participated in the elicitation. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to integrate the parameter estimates elicited from the experts and to predict the likelihood of exposure and infection in bats through a series of transmission pathways, with particular attention to capturing uncertainty in the predictions. Given the current state of knowledge as expressed by the expert panel, the results of this assessment indicate that there is a non-negligible risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to bats. For example, if a research scientist were shedding SARS-CoV-2 virus while handling bats under the field protocols used in North America prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk model indicates that 50 percent (uncertainty, 15–84 percent) of those bats could be exposed to virus, and 17 percent (uncertainty, 3–51 percent) could become infected. Use of personal protective equipment, especially a respirator, is expected to reduce the exposure risk. The expert panel estimated that exposure risk from research scientists could be reduced 94–96 percent (uncertainty, 86–99 percent) through proper use of appropriate N95 respirators (a type of mechanical filter worn over the nose and mouth), dedicated clothing (such as Tyvek coveralls), and gloves. Should any North American bats become infected with SARS-CoV-2, the expert panel estimated that there is an approximately 33-percent chance the virus could spread within a bat population. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, identified several critical uncertainties that could affect the estimate of risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 entering bat populations—notably, the underlying probability that a human would be shedding virus while working with bats, the likelihood of the virus replicating in bat tissue, and the likelihood of transmission of the virus within bat populations. Ongoing empirical work during May–October 2020 may shed light on these issues. Follow-up work is needed to better understand the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to bats from the general public; the manner in which the probabilities of exposure, infection, and transmission would differ during hibernation compared to the breeding season; and the likelihood of important effects, like morbidity and mortality in bats, the possibility of zoonosis from a North American bat reservoir, and effects of and on other wildlife.

North America↗
USGS2025

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) eggs has been linked to early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes from the 1960s through the 1990s, potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC), and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, initiated a cooperative monitoring program in the late 1990s to assess thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs. In 2024, egg thiamine concentrations continued to show high variability across sampling sites. No samples with thiamine concentrations below the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful reproduction were observed in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, between 11% and 88% of lake trout sampled from sites in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, Champlain, and the Finger Lakes had egg thiamine concentrations below this critical threshold. Time series data revealed substantial temporal and spatial variation in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations across the Great Lakes region.

Finger Lakes, Great Lakes, Lake Champlain↗
USGS2025

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) eggs has been linked to early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes from the 1960s through the 1990s, potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC), and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, initiated a cooperative monitoring program in the late 1990s to assess thiamine concentrations in lake trout eggs. In 2024, egg thiamine concentrations continued to show high variability across sampling sites. No samples with thiamine concentrations below the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful reproduction were observed in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, between 11% and 88% of lake trout sampled from sites in Lakes Michigan, Ontario, Champlain, and the Finger Lakes had egg thiamine concentrations below this critical threshold. Time series data revealed substantial temporal and spatial variation in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations across the Great Lakes region.

Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, Ontario, Ch↗
USGS2024

Great Lakes lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) thiamine monitoring program annual report

Thiamine deficiency in lake trout eggs has been identified to induce early life-stage mortality in the Great Lakes in the 1960s through the 1990s and potentially affecting lake trout recruitment. As a results, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC), Eastern Ecological Science Center, and Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), and the State University of New York (SUNY) Brockport, in collaboration with partner agencies, have conducted a cooperative program to monitor thiamine concentrations in lake trout Salvelinus namaycush eggs since the late 1990s. In 2023, egg thiamine concentrations were highly variable at each sampling site. No egg samples with thiamine concentrations less than the 4 nmol/g threshold recommended for successful lake trout reproduction were collected in Lakes Superior or Huron. In contrast, 3 to 52% of the lake trout collected at sites in Lakes Michigan, Huron, Ontario and Champlain, and Cayuga Lake had eggs below 4 nmol/g. Time series of mean lake trout egg thiamine concentrations showed high temporal and spatial variability within the Great Lakes region.

Cayuga Lake, Lake Champlain, Lake Erie, Lake Huron↗