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1,090 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Bathymetric contour maps, surface area and capacity tables, and bathymetric change maps for selected water-supply lakes in Missouri, 2022–23

Bathymetric data were collected at 13 water-supply lakes around the periphery of Missouri by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and various local agencies, as part of a multiyear effort to establish or update the surface area and capacity tables for the surveyed lakes. Surveys were carried out during the months of April and May in 2022 and 2023. All but two of the lakes had been surveyed previously by the U.S. Geological Survey, and the recent surveys were compared to the earlier surveys to document the changes in the bathymetric surface and capacity of the lake. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system mounted on a boat. Supplemental depth data at three of the lakes were collected in shallow areas with an acoustic Doppler current profiler on a remote-controlled boat. Data points from the various sources were exported at a gridded data resolution appropriate to each lake, either 0.82 foot, 1.64 feet, or 3.28 feet. Data outside the multibeam survey extent and greater than the surveyed water-surface elevation were obtained from data collected using aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) point cloud data. A linear enforcement technique was used to add points to the dataset in areas of sparse data (the upper ends of coves where the water was shallow or aquatic vegetation precluded data acquisition) based on surrounding multibeam and upland data values. The various point datasets were used to produce a three-dimensional triangulated irregular network surface of the lake-bottom elevations for each lake. A surface area and capacity table was produced from the three-dimensional surface for each lake showing surface area and capacity at specified lake water-surface elevations. Various quality-assurance tests were conducted to ensure quality data were collected with the multibeam, including beam angle checks and patch tests. Additional quality-assurance tests were conducted on the gridded bathymetric data from the survey, the bathymetric surface created from the gridded data, and the contours created from the bathymetric survey.

Missouri↗
USGS2026

A 481 m-high landslide-tsunami in a cruise ship-frequented Alaska fjord

Early in the morning of 10 August 2025, a >64 × 10 6 –cubic meter landslide struck Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska. The landslide was preconditioned by glacial retreat caused by climate change. The resulting 481-meter runup megatsunami followed an initial 100-meter-high breaking wave traveling at >70 meters per second. The landslide was preceded by several days of microseismicity, which increased in rate and magnitude until ~1 hour before failure. The landslide produced globally observed long-period seismic waves equivalent in size to a moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake. A long-period (~66 second) global seismic signal, produced by a landslide-induced seiche trapped within the fjord, persisted for up to 36 hours, the second time a days-long seiche had thus been observed. With fjord regions increasingly visited by cruise ships, and climate change making similar events more likely, this unanticipated, near-miss event highlights the growing risk from landslides and tsunamis in coastal environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Characterization of the water resources of the Pamunkey River watershed in Virginia—A review of water science, management, and traditional ecological knowledge

In central Virginia, the Pamunkey Indian Tribe and Reservation are facing increasingly complex water resource issues related to quantity and quality. Documentation of surface-water, groundwater, water quality, land subsidence, sea-level rise, and river ecology issues in the Pamunkey River watershed and incorporation of traditional ecological knowledge into these research topics may improve understanding of the water resources broadly. This report summarizes the relevant traditional ecological knowledge and scientific literature to elucidate gaps in the total combined knowledge of a suite of water science topics concerning the Pamunkey River watershed. This suite of water science topics includes some of the issues that the Pamunkey Indian Tribe and Reservation are facing within the watershed: fragmentation of streams and management of streamflow, flooding, degrading water quality, groundwater extraction, relative sea-level rise, rapid changes in ecosystems, loss of ecological and biological diversity, and climate change. Gaps in total combined knowledge are pervasive throughout each of these water resource topics. Identifying these knowledge gaps can help inform future research and management strategies.

Virginia↗
USGS2025

Protected from Pterygoplichthys? Predicting thermal habitat suitability for nonnative armored catfish in the Suwannee River

Objective Nonnative fishes can modify ecosystems and harm economies when they are introduced to new environments. Climate change is likely to assist the spread and establishment of some nonnative fishes (e.g., warmwater species), but spatiotemporal gaps in water temperature monitoring and modeling may prevent ecologists and managers from forecasting thermal habitat suitability for these taxa. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of winter water temperatures and thermal habitat suitability for two priority nonnative armored catfish, Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish P. multiradiatus , in the Suwannee River, Florida and Georgia. Methods Precipitation- and groundwater-corrected air–water temperature models were developed and evaluated using a model selection procedure to predict water temperatures at four sites in the Suwannee River. These models were chosen because they blend the simplicity of air–water temperature models with the accuracy of hydrometeorological models to create an efficient, economical, management-relevant approach for analyzing and forecasting water temperature. Results Most of the top-performing water temperature models (92%) had precipitation or groundwater corrections to air–water temperature formulations. Projected mean and maximum water temperatures increased as simulated climate change intensified. All four Suwannee River sites studied were projected to be thermally hospitable to the survival of Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish. Lower river sites, noticeably warmer than upper river sites, were conducive to the survival of Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the winter months. The upper river sites were too cold for Orinoco Sailfin Catfish survival in some climate-change scenarios, but the Suwannee River has an abundance of constant-temperature springs that are likely hospitable to Vermiculated Sailfin Catfish and Orinoco Sailfin Catfish throughout the year. Conclusions The findings suggest that winter water temperatures will likely not be a barrier to the survival of Pterygoplichthys catfish in the Suwannee River, amplifying the importance of conservation and management approaches to inhibit their spread and establishment. If the Pterygoplichthys population remains small and isolated and decision makers are able to devote required staff time and resources to managing these species, removal and eradication at local if not broader scales may be reasonable goals. This study provides a water temperature modeling approach that can aid ecologists and managers in prioritizing sites to prevent the introduction, slow the dispersal, eradicate, and control Pterygoplichthys catfish and other nonnative fishes in the Suwannee River and beyond.

Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2025

A framework for understanding the effects of subsurface agricultural drainage on downstream flows

Understanding controls on streamflow volume and magnitude is important to water resource management applications, such as critical water and transportation structure design and floodplain mapping. Changes in land use and agricultural practices, such as subsurface agricultural drainage, may be contributing to changes in streamflow characteristics. Subsurface agricultural drainage, also known as tile drainage, is the practice of installing drains in the subsurface of agricultural fields to improve productivity. Because of the complex interactions between subsurface drainage systems, precipitation, local soil conditions, and land management practices, it is difficult to determine how subsurface agricultural drainage affects downstream flow. Previously developed subsurface agricultural drainage conceptual models under dry, saturated, and winter conditions are summarized, and current literature on the effects of subsurface agricultural drainage on downstream flows, focusing on peak flow, non-event flow, and total flow to develop frameworks for discussing these systems is compiled. The effects that subsurface drainage has on hydrologic systems are expected to vary by site and are seasonally based on system design, soil type, moisture conditions, precipitation characteristics, and land conditions. Subsurface drainage can affect the magnitude of peak flow by converting surface runoff from a storm event to subsurface runoff. By increasing hydrologic connectivity of a catchment, subsurface drainage can increase non-event flow or the flow between two storm events, typically dependent on lateral flow through the subsurface and groundwater. Theoretically, by diverting water from groundwater recharge or by reducing water available for evapotranspiration, subsurface drainage may increase the total volume of flow. Precipitation changes may increase infiltration, excess overland flow, and flood risk regardless of the presence or absence of subsurface drainage.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗
USGS2024

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California↗
USGS2026

Decadal shifts in groundwater age detected by environmental tracers across California, USA

Groundwater age offers important insight into recharge, storage, and contamination risk. Although models predict age changes can be driven by pumping and climate variability, direct observational evidence remains limited. Here, we analyzed paired environmental tracer suites (tritium, carbon-14, and tritiogenic helium-3) collected a decade apart from 268 wells across California to assess the prevalence of groundwater age transience. Travel-time distribution models and statistical tests indicated age transience at 29% of sites, occurring most often in agricultural regions, such as the San Joaquin Valley and Southern Coast Ranges, where large carbon-14 changes coincided with substantial nitrate and chloride shifts. Sites with tritiogenic helium-3 data showed more frequent age transience, underscoring the value of multi-tracer data sets. These results provide the first regional evidence of widespread groundwater age change and a method for detecting changing water balances with implications for groundwater sustainability and water quality.

California↗
USGS2026

Groundwater dependency and hydroclimatic influences on riparian and upland vegetation productivity, Upper San Pedro, Arizona, United States

In arid and semi-arid regions, groundwater sustains vegetation through subsurface water access, yet the responses of groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) to changing hydroclimate and groundwater availability are relatively understudied. This study investigates seasonal and spatial patterns in vegetation greenness using Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) values across riparian and upland zones in the semi-arid Upper San Pedro (USP) watershed, southern Arizona, which experiences a bimodal precipitation regime. We paired 25 years (2000–2024) of EVI and depth to groundwater (DTG) data from 89 wells and climate metrics (precipitation and vapour pressure deficit) to quantify the sensitivity of vegetation to subsurface moisture as well as atmospheric moisture supply and demand. Vegetation at wells near the USP riparian area showed strong associations between EVI and DTG anomalies during the monsoon season, indicating sustained groundwater use even during this wet period when summer precipitation is abundant. In contrast, upland vegetation that lacked access to groundwater showed minimal sensitivity in EVI to DTG and was generally less responsive to vapour pressure deficit. Interestingly, the riparian GDEs were not decoupled from precipitation and climate variability. These results underscore the importance of groundwater for maintaining riparian productivity and highlight the utility of remote sensing in identifying vegetation-climate-groundwater linkages across heterogeneous dryland landscapes.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Hydrogeologic investigation, framework, and conceptual flow model of the Antlers aquifer, southeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The 1973 Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute §82–1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin. Every 20 years, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board is required to update the hydrologic investigation on which the maximum annual yield determinations were based. The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is used to set the equal-proportionate share pumping rate. The maximum annual yield of 5,913,600 acre-feet per year and equal-proportionate-share of 2.1 acre-feet per acre per year currently (2025) in place for the Antlers aquifer were issued by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board on February 14, 1995. Because more than 20 years have elapsed since the 1995 final order for the Antlers aquifer was issued, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, completed an in-depth hydrologic study that included a hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model for the 1980–2022 study period. The results of an analysis of land use, long-term climate patterns, streamflow and base-flow patterns, historical groundwater use, as well as groundwater-level fluctuations across the Antlers aquifer are described. In addition, groundwater quality was analyzed for total dissolved solids concentrations and major ions for the Antlers aquifer. An updated hydrogeologic framework was developed that included refining the aquifer boundary in Oklahoma, the creation of new potentiometric surface and saturated thickness of fresh groundwater maps, one multiple-well aquifer test, slug tests, and an analysis of lithologic logs across the aquifer. A conceptual groundwater flow model and water budget were developed by incorporating estimates of recharge from precipitation, saturated-zone evapotranspiration, streambed seepage, lateral groundwater flows, vertical leakage, and withdrawals from groundwater wells.

Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2025

Wet meadow regeneration through restoration of biophysical feedbacks

Wet meadows are globally significant ecosystems that provide critical hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical functions, yet their extent has declined dramatically due to land use changes and hydrologic alteration. These sedge-dominated wetlands exist at the drier end of the wetland gradient, maintained by shallow groundwater and periodic inundation. This paper is a global synthesis of the ecological, geomorphic, and hydrological dynamics of wet meadows, with an emphasis on alluvial systems, to inform effective restoration strategies. We compare wet meadows to other wetlands, classify them into palustrine, lacustrine, and alluvial types, then focus on alluvial wet meadows and discuss how their formation and persistence depend on ground and surface water interactions, sediment deposition and flow obstructions, all mediated by biological processes. In particular, we highlight the role of hydric graminoids in resisting erosion and maintaining soil cohesion, how beaver promote meadow persistence, and the significance of wet meadows as carbon sinks. We also present stratigraphic evidence demonstrating that incision, often triggered by anthropogenic activity or changing climate, is the primary mechanism of alluvial wet meadow degradation, resulting in water table decline and shifts in vegetation composition. Restoration requires reversing these incisional processes through techniques that elevate water tables, disperse flow and retain sediment—methods traditionally associated with either soil conservation or stream restoration. These include nature-based solutions that create obstructions such as beaver dams and their analogues, rock and wood-based obstructions and incision trench or gully filling and grading. Given their multifunctional value—including but not limited to flood attenuation, biodiversity support, and carbon sequestration—wet meadows warrant a focused restoration framework. This review advocates for a valley-floor scale restoration paradigm that integrates hydrological reconnection, sediment retention, and biological reinforcement to ensure long-term resilience of these systems in the face of changing climate and land use pressures.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2024

Effects of drought and cloud-water interception on groundwater recharge and wildfire hazard for recent and future climate conditions, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi

The Water-budget Accounting for Tropical Regions Model (WATRMod) code was used for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit for a set of water-budget scenarios. The scenarios included historical and future drought conditions, and a land-cover condition where shrubland and forest within the cloud zone were converted to grassland. For the historical drought condition, island-wide mean annual recharge estimates range from a decrease of 30 percent (239 million gallons per day [Mgal/d]) for Kauaʻi to a decrease of 39 percent (2,706 Mgal/d) for the Island of Hawaiʻi, relative to the reference condition consisting of 1978–2007 rainfall and 2020 land cover. For the future drought condition, estimates of island-wide mean annual recharge range from a decrease of 40 percent (477 Mgal/d) on Maui to a decrease of 51 percent (116 Mgal/day) on Molokaʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition produces estimated land-cover-related decreases in island-wide mean annual recharge (in addition to the drought-related decreases) of 11–12 Mgal/d on Oʻahu, 119–135 Mgal/day on Maui, and 689–849 Mgal/d on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The spatial distributions of increases in conditions indicative of moisture stress and potential wildfire hazard were quantified using the relative frequency of soil moisture less than a selected threshold value (monthly mean soil moisture less than 0.074, expressed as a fraction of available water capacity), evapotranspiration less than a selected threshold value (monthly evapotranspiration less than 0.96 inches), and climatic water deficit greater than a selected threshold value (monthly climatic water deficit greater than 0.77, expressed as fraction of potential evapotranspiration). For the historical drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency for the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of east and southwest Kauaʻi; central, east, and west Oʻahu; central Molokaʻi; central Maui and low- to mid-altitude parts of West Maui volcano; and the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. For the future drought condition, the greatest increases in the relative frequency of the moisture-stress indicators occur across parts of west Kauaʻi; central and west Oʻahu and Molokaʻi; a band of mid-altitude area on the southern slope of West Maui volcano and across the southwestern slope of Haleakalā; and mid-altitude areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi. Complete conversion of all shrubland and forest within the cloud zone to grassland for each drought condition results in land-cover-related increases in the relative frequency of moisture-stress indicators around Kaʻala in the Waiʻanae Range and the southeastern part of the Koʻolau Range on Oʻahu, the southern part of West Maui volcano and the southwestern slope of Haleakalā on Maui, and the upland regions of the western and southern parts of the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water↗
USGS2025

Ubiquity and causes of soil water preferential flow across 17 ecoregions

Preferential flow (PF) in soil causes the rapid transport of water, nutrients, and contaminants into the subsurface, influencing groundwater recharge and streamflow. Data scarcity has hindered the quantification of PF occurrence and the identification of its drivers across diverse ecoregions. We address this gap by analyzing high-frequency, multi-depth soil moisture data across 17 ecoregions in the USA, using ∼1,500 sensors at 40 sites. We discovered that PF is widespread, with sites experiencing PF in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Multiple approaches consistently show that PF is more likely to occur with increased peak rainfall intensity, finer textured material, low soil moisture variability, humid climate, and higher net primary productivity. This suggests that PF patterns could shift with projected climate changes, increasing uncertainty in predictions of groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation.

conterminous United States and Puerto Rico↗
USGS2026

Regional variations in sea ice and primary productivity in the Bering Sea during Marine Isotope Stage 11

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) has long been an analog for Holocene climate, because it is the most recent interglacial period with similar orbital conditions. However, there is significant global and regional variability in the climate response to MIS 11 warmth. Here, we review sediment core records from across the Bering Sea to investigate changes in paleoceanographic conditions during Marine Isotope Stages 12-10. Sea ice was present over much of the Bering Sea during MIS 11, but today, none of the sites investigated are ever ice-covered. This suggests that sea ice regimes in the Bering Sea during MIS 11 were different to those of the Holocene. There are also regional differences in the response of sea ice to MIS 11 warming. At the Umnak Plateau, Southeastern Bering Sea, sea ice concentrations decline during deglaciation, but they remain high at the slope sites until Peak MIS 11. Sea ice re-advances over the Umnak Plateau during peak interglacial warmth, at the same time that it declines over the slope sites. Late MIS 11 is characterized by high concentrations of seasonal sea ice at the Umnak Plateau, whilst sea ice at the slope sites fluctuates between consolidated and unconsolidated ice cover. This east-west dichotomy may be explained by changes in the behavior of the Aleutian Low. Productivity increases dramatically during deglaciation due to increased upwelling and sea level rise bringing fresh nutrients into the oceans. This is characterized by increased diatom productivity, increased terrestrial carbon deposition, and laminations at all sites.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Post-wildfire debris flows

Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to infiltrate into the fire-altered soils and overland flow is less impeded by vegetation. Rainfall runoff in recently burned areas can erode hillslopes owing to the removal of soil binding organic matter near the soil surface by fire. In channels, loose, dry-ravel deposits composed of sand and gravel are readily entrained by concentrated runoff in channels. Entrainment of soil on hillslopes and in channels bulks up the sediment concentration of the rainfall runoff to generate debris flows capable of transporting boulders and large woody debris. Post-wildfire debris flows can be triggered by rainfall conditions that would typically produce little runoff during unburned conditions. The primary rainfall trigger for post-wildfire debris flows is high intensity rainfall during short duration convective rainstorms or periods of high rainfall intensity embedded within a long-duration frontal storm. Numerous observations of debris flows triggered by storms lasting less than an hour following periods of little to no rainfall indicate that antecedent rainfall is not a requirement for initiation of post-wildfire debris flows. Post-wildfire debris-flow hazard assessment entails estimating probability and magnitude of debris flows in the burned area, estimating debris-flow runout and intensity, and defining rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation. In the United States, probability and magnitude is estimated using empirically derived models largely based on data collected in southern California. The models provide maps to identify watersheds and drainage paths where post-wildfire hazards are most pronounced. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds can be incorporated into flood hazard forecasting tools. Currently, work is underway to identify how to best implement debris-flow runout models in burned areas with efficiency and accuracy. Post-wildfire debris flows have been a long-recognized process in the Transverse Ranges of southern California; however, climate change is driving more frequent wildfires to burn more mountainous terrain throughout the western United States and worldwide. As a result, post-wildfire debris flows are becoming a more common threat in areas where they were once infrequent. As the threat of post-wildfire debris flow expands into new areas, evaluating the hazard becomes challenging because the degree to which wildfire increases debris-flow susceptibility varies from region to region. This chapter summarizes the knowledge to date for evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility and hazard assessment. We summarize the characteristics of wildfire burn severity, topography, underlying soil and geology, and rainfall conditions that contribute to making a watershed most likely to produce post-wildfire debris flows. Methods for hazard assessment in the United States and other countries are summarized. We highlight knowledge gaps for how post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility varies throughout the western United States and worldwide and identify research needs to improve hazard assessment methods in different geographies.

Book chapter↗
USGS2026

Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one year after fire, is typically the most susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows, the hazard evolves in time and space as the burned area recovers. The recovery trajectory a given burned area will take depends on local climate and weather and can be difficult to predict. Some burned areas recover quickly, whereas others experience debris flows for multiple years after fire. As a result, extending our ability to update debris-flow likelihood estimates and rainfall thresholds based on observed recovery of the burned area would be beneficial. We present a method for multi-year runoff-generated debris-flow hazard assessment that leverages the USGS “M1” debris-flow likelihood model and integrates updated, satellite-derived, normalized burn ratio data to estimate vegetation recovery. We predict recovery-aware rainfall thresholds and validate them against a multi-year debris-flow hazard prediction and could be adapted for use with other debris-flow models that incorporate burn severity data.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Washing↗
USGS2026

Continental-scale prediction of hydrologic signatures and processes

Understanding how dominant hydrologic processes and their drivers vary across diverse continental-scale landscapes is critical for hydrologic modeling and water management applications. Our research addresses this question by synthesizing large-sample watershed datasets, Caravan and GAGES-II, and developing random forest models to identify patterns in hydrologic function. We assessed dominant processes by examining hydrologic signatures – summary indicators of watershed function derived from hydroclimatic time series and random forest models across 14 146 gauged United States watersheds. The results reveal clear continental-scale gradients in hydrologic processes, including baseflow, overland flow, storage, and water balance losses. Our map of dominant processes highlights, for example, the transition from baseflow to fast responses and back to baseflow along the elevation gradient from the Appalachian spine, through the Piedmont, to the Eastern Coastal Plain; a distinct outer ring around the Great Lakes region; and sharp contrasts between coastal and inland processes in the West. Variable importance analysis from random forest models show that processes in the western U.S. are primarily controlled by climate, whereas in the eastern U.S., soil, geology, and topography play larger roles, with distinct human influences apparent in urban areas. Our approach of estimating dominant processes and their drivers facilitates extending process knowledge from research watersheds to the continental scale, assessing current hydrological understanding, and evaluating hydrological model structures.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Permafrost thaw controls iron flux from wetlands and sulfide-bearing rocks to Arctic rivers and streams

Recent warming has caused widespread iron mobilization into Arctic waterbodies that degrades ecosystems and threatens natural resources. Yet, understanding where and when iron flux occurs remains limited. Here, we investigate iron loading across regional to local scales in Arctic Alaska using climate, water chemistry, and borehole data together with mapped geology and permafrost presence. We show that both anoxic microbial iron reduction and acid rock drainage from iron-sulfide oxidation mobilize iron. Iron influx is strongly associated with lowland wetlands, sulfide-rich upland bedrock, and near-surface permafrost. Acid rock drainage chemistry correlates very strongly with the depth of seasonal thaw above permafrost from the previous year, indicating a one-year lag. These findings clarify the spatial and temporal dynamics of Arctic river rusting, provide a mechanistic understanding of the phenomenon, and may allow anticipation of its occurrence and assessment of its implications for aquatic ecosystem health and subsistence resources under ongoing climate change.

Alaska↗