SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “earthquake hazards”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources

USGS2017

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2000

The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a useful global seismic hazard framework and by serving as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. GSHAP was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR). GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation, including the production and distribution of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSH Map), a special issue of Annali di Geofisica (December 1999) describing the map and project, and a Web site (http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/) containing regional reports, GSHAP yearly reports, summaries, and maps of seismicity, source zones, and seismic hazard values.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

Nature↗

USGS2024

Characterizing directivity in small (M 2.4-5) aftershocks of the Ridgecrest sequence

Directivity, or the focusing of energy along the direction of an earthquake rupture, is a common property of earthquakes of all sizes and can cause increased hazard due to azimuthally dependent ground‐motion amplification. For small earthquakes, the effects of directivity are generally less pronounced due to reduced rupture size, yet the directivity in small events can bias source property estimates and provide important insights into general regional faulting patterns. However, due to observational limitations, directivity is usually only measured and modeled for large events. As such, many studies of small earthquakes either ignore directivity altogether or assume a constant rupture direction for all events in a cluster. In our study, we apply a refined directivity fitting method constrained with two separate methods of source deconvolution to the dataset of aftershocks of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, which contain a large number of well‐recorded small‐to‐mid sized earthquakes occurring in close proximity to each other. The revealed directivity of 100+ small (M 2.4–5) earthquakes is highly heterogeneous and primarily oblique to and away from the main fault strike, suggesting a complex postseismic stress redistribution. In addition, the energy focusing effect of directivity appears to bias the selection of high‐quality data from stations in the direction of rupture, leading to average stress‐drop increases of 50% if directivity is not accounted for.

California↗

USGS2018

Ensemble smoothed seismicity models for the new Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map

We develop a long‐term (a few decades or longer) earthquake rate forecast for Italy based on smoothed seismicity for incorporation in the 2017–2018 Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps (IPSHM). Because the earthquake rate models from previous IPSHM were computed using source zones that were drawn around seismicity and tectonic provinces, the present model will be the first introduction of the smoothed seismicity method into the IPSHM. Smoothed seismicity models are constructed from both historical CPTI15 (Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, 1000–2014) and instrumental (1981–2016) earthquake catalogs and use both fixed and adaptive smoothing methods. We compute spatial likelihood values comparing the spatial distribution of observed earthquakes with a suite of trial earthquake rate models to optimize smoothing parameters and catalogs. Then we produce an ensemble model using two different smoothing models (adaptive and fixed) and two earthquake catalogs (historical and instrumental), which are weighted equally through a logic‐tree approach to improve the forecast capability. We also compare our optimized smoothed seismicity models with the best two models of the Italian Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) experiment and retrospectively test them with the CSEP methodology. We observed that the ensemble model performs slightly better than the optimized fixed and the adaptive smoothing seismicity models obtained in this study and the best time‐independent model of the CSEP Italian experiment. The preferred ensemble model forecasts an annual rate of 1.47 M ≥ 5.0 "> M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, with higher rates mainly concentrating along the Apennines chain, eastern Alps, Calabria, and northeast Sicily. Finally, six ensemble models are created from the different smoothing methods using different weights through a logic‐tree approach to estimate the uncertainty associated with the model.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Preface

This book grew out of a topical session on “Central Virginia Earthquakes of 2011: Geology, Geophysics, and Significance for Seismic Hazards in Eastern North America” at the 2012 The Geological Society of America (GSA) Annual Meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina (USA). It also benefitted from related sessions at other meetings. The goal of this volume, The 2011 Mineral, Virginia, Earthquake, and Its Significance for Seismic Hazards in Eastern North America , is to bring together as much information as possible on lessons learned from this rare event. Chapters encompass a wide range of geoscience, engineering, and related studies of this earthquake and its effects from the epicentral area in central Virginia to Washington, D.C., and beyond. The intended audience is a broad spectrum of geoscientists, engineers, and decision makers interested in understanding earthquakes and seismic hazards in eastern North America and other intraplate settings. Chapters by Berti et al. (21), Chapman (2), Costain (8), Davenport et al. (15), Green et al. (9), Heller and Carter (10), Horton et al. (14), Hughes et al. (19), Powars et al. (23), Pratt et al. (16), Roeloffs et al. (7), Shah et al. (17), Stephenson et al. (3), Walsh et al. (18), and Wells et al. (12) are expansions of presentations at the 2012 GSA meeting. The volume also contains chapters from recent studies that were not presented at the GSA meeting, including those by Bobyarchick (22), Burton et al. (20), Dreiling and Mooney (5), Li et al. (11), McNamara et al. (4), Pollitz and Mooney (6), and Shahidi et al. (13). Following an overview and synthesis by the volume editors (1), chapters are arranged under the topical headings “Seismology and Regional Effects,” “Earthquake Damage, Geotechnical, and Engineering Investigations,” “Aftershocks, Geophysical Imaging, and Modeling,” “Geologic Investigations—Epicentral Area,” and “Geologic Investigations— Central Virginia Seismic Zone and Nearby Faults.” We thank the authors for their contributions and the many scientists and engineers who contributed time and expertise in reviewing manuscripts to substantially improve the quality of the volume. These reviewers include Gail Atkinson, Christopher Bailey, Richard Berquist, Kimberly Blisniuk, Paul Bodin, Aaron Bradshaw, Clive Collins, Ariel Conn, Randy Cox, Haitham Dawood, James Dewey, John Ebel, David Fenster, Alexander Gates, Kathleen Haller, Gregory Hancock, Robert Hatcher, William Henika, Paul Hsieh, Steven Jaumé, Jeffrey Kimball, Charles Langston, Jongwon Lee, Andrea Llenos, John McBride, Scott Olson, Michael Oskin, Brent Owens, Gilles Peltzer, Mark Quigley, Dhananjay Ravat, David Saftner, Arthur Snoke, Jamison Steidl, Kevin Stewart, Alice Stieve, Danielle Sumy, Ertugrul Taciroglu, Roy Van Arsdale, Mason Walters, Chiyuen Wang, Yang Wang, Richard Whittecar, Lorraine Wolf, Clint Wood, Liam Wotherspoon, and some anonymous reviewers.

Virginia↗

USGS1974

Volcanic hazards on the Island of Hawaii

Volcanic hazards on the Island of Hawaii have been determined to be chiefly products of eruptions: lava flows, falling fragments, gases, and particle-and-gas clouds. Falling fragments and particle-and-gas clouds can be substantial hazards to life, but they are relatively rare. Lava flows are the chief hazard to property; they are frequent and cover broad areas. Rupture, subsidence, earthquakes, and sea waves (tsunamis) caused by eruptions are minor hazards; those same events caused by large-scale crustal movements, however, are major hazards to both life and property. Volcanic hazards are greatest on Mauna Loa and Kilauea, and the risk is highest along the rift zones of those volcanoes. The hazards are progressively less severe on Hualalai, Mauna Kea, and Kohala volcanoes. Some risk from earthquakes extends across the entire island, and the risk from tsunamis is high all along the coast. The island has been divided into geographic zones of different relative risk for each volcanic hazard, and for all those hazards combined. Each zone is assigned a relative risk for that area as a whole; the degree of risk varies within the zones, however, and in some of them the risk decreases gradationally across the entire zone. Moreover, the risk in one zone may be locally as great or greater than that at some points in the zone of next higher overall risk. Nevertheless, the zones can be highly useful for land-use planning. Planning decisions to which the report is particularly applicable include the selection of kinds of structures and kinds of land use that are appropriate for the severity and types of hazards present. For example, construction of buildings that can resist a lava flow is generally not feasible, but it is both feasible and desirable to build structures that can resist falling rock fragments, earthquakes, and tsunamis in areas where risk from those hazards is relatively high. The report can also be used to select sites where overall risk is relatively low, to identify sites where either overall risk or risk from some specific hazard is relatively high, and to identify areas in which there is a threat to lives as well as to property. The report further can serve as a basis for warning persons about hazards in areas most likely to be affected by volcanic eruptions. Perhaps most important, however, the report provides basic information needed for zoning to control future land use.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

A global empirical model for near real-time assessment of seismically induced landslides

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a significant hazard in seismically active regions, but our ability to assess the hazard they pose in near real-time is limited. In this study, we present a new globally applicable model for seismically induced landslides based on the most comprehensive global dataset available; we use 23 landslide inventories that span a range of earthquake magnitudes and climatic and tectonic settings. We use logistic regression to relate the presence and distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides with spatially distributed estimates of ground shaking, topographic slope, lithology, land-cover type, and a topographic index designed to estimate variability in soil wetness to provide an empirical model of landslide distribution. We tested over 100 combinations of independent predictor variables to find the best-fitting model, using a diverse set of statistical tests. Blind validation tests show the model accurately estimates the distribution of available landslide inventories. The results indicate that the model is reliable and stable, with high “balanced accuracy” (correctly vs. incorrectly classified pixels) for the majority of test events. A cross validation analysis shows high balanced accuracy for a majority of events as well. By combining near-real time estimates of ground shaking with globally available landslide susceptibility data, this model provides a tool to estimate the distribution of co-seismic landslide hazard within minutes of the occurrence of any earthquake worldwide for which a USGS ShakeMap is available.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

USGS2006

Quaternary tectonic faulting in the Eastern United States

Paleoseismological study of geologic features thought to result from Quaternary tectonic faulting can characterize the frequencies and sizes of large prehistoric and historical earthquakes, thereby improving the accuracy and precision of seismic-hazard assessments. Greater accuracy and precision can reduce the likelihood of both underprotection and unnecessary design and construction costs. Published studies proposed Quaternary tectonic faulting at 31 faults, folds, seismic zones, and fields of earthquake-induced liquefaction phenomena in the Appalachian Mountains and Coastal Plain. Of the 31 features, seven are of known origin. Four of the seven have nontectonic origins and the other three features are liquefaction fields caused by moderate to large historical and Holocene earthquakes in coastal South Carolina, including Charleston; the Central Virginia Seismic Zone; and the Newbury, Massachusetts, area. However, the causal faults of the three liquefaction fields remain unclear. Charleston has the highest hazard because of large Holocene earthquakes in that area, but the hazard is highly uncertain because the earthquakes are uncertainly located. Of the 31 features, the remaining 24 are of uncertain origin. They require additional work before they can be clearly attributed either to Quaternary tectonic faulting or to nontectonic causes. Of these 24, 14 features, most of them faults, have little or no published geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting that could indicate the likely occurrence of earthquakes larger than those observed historically. Three more features of the 24 were suggested to have had Quaternary tectonic faulting, but paleoseismological and other studies of them found no evidence of large prehistoric earthquakes. The final seven features of uncertain origin require further examination because all seven are in or near urban areas. They are the Moodus Seismic Zone (Hartford, Connecticut), Dobbs Ferry fault zone and Mosholu fault (New York City), Lancaster Seismic Zone and the epicenter of the shallow Cacoosing Valley earthquake (Lancaster and Reading, Pennsylvania), Kingston fault (central New Jersey between New York and Philadelphia), and Everona fault-Mountain Run fault zone (Washington, D.C., and Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia). ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2021

The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2022

Observation-constrained multicycle dynamic models of the southern San Andreas and the northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing complexity in paleoearthquake extent and recurrence with realistic 2D fault geometry

Understanding mechanical conditions that lead to complexity in earthquakes is important to seismic hazard analysis. In this study, we simulate physics-based multicycle dynamic models of the San Andreas fault (Carrizo through San Bernardino sections) and the San Jacinto fault (Claremont and Clark strands). We focus on a complex fault geometry based on the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model and its effect over multiple earthquake cycles. Using geodetically derived strain rates, we validate the models against geologic slip rates and recurrence intervals at various paleoseismic sites. We find that the interactions among fault geometry, dynamic rupture and interseismic stress accumulation produce stress heterogeneities, leading to rupture segmentation and variability in earthquake recurrence. Our models produce earthquakes with rupture extents similar to a recent comprehensive paleoseismic catalog. The “earthquake gates” of the Big Bend and the Cajon Pass occasionally impede dynamic ruptures. The angle of compression, which is the subtraction of the maximum shear strain rate direction from the local fault strike, can better determine the likelihood of the impedance of restraining bends to dynamic ruptures. Because the Big Bend has an angle of compression of ∼20°, ruptures that traverse the Big Bend, like the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, are more frequent than expected based on empirical relations which predict the ∼40° restraining bend to terminate most ruptures. Our models indicate that large ruptures tend to initiate north of the Big Bend and propagate southwards, similar to the 1857 earthquake, providing critical information for ground shaking assessment in the region.

California↗

USGS2024

Framework for mapping liquefaction hazard–Targeted design ground motions

Liquefaction-induced ground failure poses substantial challenges to geotechnical earthquake engineering design. Current approaches for designing against liquefaction hazards, as specified in most seismic provisions, focus on estimating a liquefaction factor of safety ( 𝐹⁢𝑆𝐿 ) and typically characterize earthquake loading using design parameters based on probabilistic or deterministic ground motion levels. Because 𝐹⁢𝑆𝐿 is estimated deterministically, this basis of design neglects considerable uncertainties for estimating liquefaction triggering and its consequences and results in a lack of liquefaction-specific design criteria, particularly as structural design has advanced toward risk-targeted performance objectives. This study presents a framework for developing liquefaction-targeted design criteria based on a minimum acceptable return period of liquefaction, informed by probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis (PLHA). PLHA quantifies annualized rates of liquefaction by considering contributions from (1) the full ground-motion probability space, and (2) uncertainties in liquefaction triggering using probabilistic models. PLHA is used in this study to characterize the current, effective return periods of 𝐹⁢𝑆𝐿 ( 𝑇𝑅,𝐹⁢𝑆 ) obtained from conventional liquefaction hazard analysis (CLHA) using uniform-hazard ground motions. 𝑇𝑅,𝐹⁢𝑆 is evaluated in a parametric study of nearly 100 sites throughout the conterminous United States. The results indicate large geographic variations in acceptable liquefaction hazard levels, with implied 𝑇𝑅,𝐹⁢𝑆 ranging between approximately 1,000 to 3,000 years. To address these inconsistencies without the computational demands of full PLHA, a framework is proposed for developing a liquefaction-targeted design peak ground acceleration, 𝑃⁢𝐺⁢𝐴𝐿 , for use in liquefaction models that result in consistent liquefaction design levels across all geographic locations. The mapped 𝑃⁢𝐺⁢𝐴𝐿 is shown to be somewhat sensitive to site-specific properties, and adjustment factors are developed and presented. The proposed 𝑃⁢𝐺⁢𝐴𝐿 mapping procedure produces 𝐹⁢𝑆𝐿 estimates that are consistent with those obtained from full PLHA at a target 𝑇𝑅,𝐹⁢𝑆 , providing a promising roadmap to incorporating PLHA concepts into current liquefaction design methods.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗

USGS1993

The Cape Mendocino, California, earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the triple junction

The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America—Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity.

California↗

USGS2017

Using structural damage statistics to derive macroseismic intensity within the Kathmandu valley for the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake

We make and analyze structural damage observations from within the Kathmandu valley following the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake to derive macroseismic intensities at several locations including some located near ground motion recording sites. The macroseismic intensity estimates supplement the limited strong ground motion data in order to characterize the damage statistics. This augmentation allows for direct comparisons between ground motion amplitudes and structural damage characteristics and ultimately produces a more constrained ground shaking hazard map for the Gorkha earthquake. For systematic assessments, we focused on damage to three specific building categories: (a) low/mid-rise reinforced concrete frames with infill brick walls, (b) unreinforced brick masonry bearing walls with reinforced concrete slabs, and (c) unreinforced brick masonry bearing walls with partial timber framing. Evaluating dozens of photos of each construction type, assigning each building in the study sample to a European Macroseismic Scale (EMS)-98 Vulnerability Class based upon its structural characteristics, and then individually assigning an EMS-98 Damage Grade to each building allows a statistically derived estimate of macroseismic intensity for each of nine study areas in and around the Kathmandu valley. This analysis concludes that EMS-98 macroseismic intensities for the study areas from the Gorkha mainshock typically were in the VII–IX range. The intensity assignment process described is more rigorous than the informal approach of assigning intensities based upon anecdotal media or first-person accounts of felt-reports, shaking, and their interpretation of damage. Detailed EMS-98 macroseismic assessments in urban areas are critical for quantifying relations between shaking and damage as well as for calibrating loss estimates. We show that the macroseismic assignments made herein result in fatality estimates consistent with the overall and district-wide reported values.

Kathmandu Valley↗

USGS2021

Landslides triggered by the August 14, 2021, magnitude 7.2 Nippes, Haiti, earthquake

The August 14, 2021, magnitude 7.2 Nippes, Haiti, earthquake triggered thousands of landslides on the Tiburon Peninsula. The landslides directly caused fatalities and damage and impeded response efforts by blocking roads and causing other infrastructure damage. Adverse effects of the landslides likely will continue for months to years. This report presents an assessment of potential postearthquake landslide-related geologic hazards for the Tiburon Peninsula and a preliminary map of the landslides triggered by the earthquake. This hazard assessment is based on an emergency analysis of the currently available, postearthquake satellite imagery. In this report, we highlight specific areas of concern that may benefit from more detailed assessment and longer-term monitoring. Our mapping efforts revealed that at least 4,893 landslides were triggered across the Tiburon Peninsula by the earthquake and subsequent rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Grace. We also observed hundreds of landslide deposits potentially restricting flow in rivers and streams. In addition, we observed landslides that likely affected roads by rendering them impassable or susceptible to subsequent damage from existing landslides. Because of the preliminary nature of this report and the limits of remote analyses, additional investigation and monitoring would be beneficial to accurately determine the threat posed by these hazards to people and infrastructure.

Nippes↗

USGS2025

Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning

Earthquakes are a rapid-onset hazard where advance planning and learning plays a key role in mitigating injuries and death to individuals. Recent advances in earthquake detection have resulted in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These systems can provide advance warning to predetermined geographic regions that an earthquake is in progress, which may result in individuals receiving warning seconds before significant shaking is felt at their location. This additional time could allow individuals to take more effective protective actions during the immediate disaster. To demonstrate this, we created an agent-based simulation of a basic apartment that allowed us to randomly and repeatedly simulate an individual receiving and responding to an EEW message. The results of our preliminary simulation show that, in our study environment, earthquake early warning alerts have the potential to allow for sufficient time for individuals to take protective actions.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Resilience by Design: Bringing Science to Policy Makers

No one questions that Los Angeles has an earthquake problem. The “Big Bend” of the San Andreas fault in southern California complicates the plate boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, creating a convergent component to the primarily transform boundary. The Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model has over 150 fault segments, each capable of generating a damaging earthquake, in an area with more than 23 million residents (Fig. 1). A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) analysis of the expected losses from all future earthquakes in the National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) predicts an annual average of more than $3 billion per year in the eight counties of southern California, with half of those losses in Los Angeles County alone (Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA], 2008). According to Swiss Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, Los Angeles faces one of the greatest risks of catastrophic losses from earthquakes of any city in the world, eclipsed only by Tokyo, Jakarta, and Manila (Swiss Re, 2013).

California↗

USGS2016

Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

Conference Paper↗