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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses

Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify seawater intrusion caused by natural (storm surges) and anthropogenic (human activities) perturbations. The long short-term memory network and wavelet analysis were used to assess vertical aquifer vulnerabilities, revealing that the shallow part of the Coastal lowlands aquifer system (CL1) in the southern Baldwin County region is more susceptible to sea level rise and groundwater extraction than deeper aquifers. Based on these findings, a cross-sectional numerical model (physics approach) for the CL1 aquifer was developed to evaluate tidal and storm surge effects, using Tropical Storm Claudette (June 2021) as a case study. Results showed that tidal fluctuations had a minimal impact on the saltwater-freshwater interface location, whereas storm surges caused substantial inland movement, with effects lasting for nine months. The steady-state version of the three-dimensional (3D) physical model predicted seawater intrusion across the entire area, and convolutional neural network-based modeling further validated the model results. The 3D physical model was also applied to a smaller area to assess human impact on the saltwater interface due to two groundwater pumping scenarios (± 50% of the baseline pumping rate). Results revealed that a 50% increase in groundwater withdrawals caused seawater to advance ~ 320 m inland, whereas a 50% reduction led to a ~ 270-meter retreat. This study highlights the vulnerability of Alabama’s shallow coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion due to storm surges and human activities, and demonstrates that combining physics-based models with machine learning approaches can improve groundwater predictions, though its accuracy depends on the availability of site-specific data.

Alabama↗

USGS2012

Large-scale scour of the sea floor and the effect of natural armouring processes, land reclamation Maasvlakte 2, port of Rotterdam

Morphological model computations based on uniform (non-graded) sediment revealed an unrealistically strong scour of the sea floor in the immediate vicinity to the west of Maasvlakte 2. By means of a state-of-the-art graded sediment transport model the effect of natural armouring and sorting of bed material on the scour process has been examined. Sensitivity computations confirm that the development of the scour hole is strongly reduced due to the incorporation of armouring processes, suggesting an approximately 30% decrease in terms of erosion area below the -20m depth contour.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the urban San Francisco Bay estuary, California. In particular, we examine the influence of shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and subregional floodgates on regional water levels. The result shows that under present conditions, tidal amplification is responsible for generating a wide distribution of extreme water levels across San Francisco Bay. Tidal amplification is found to decrease under sea level rise, thereby producing a relative damping effect on extremes. A comparison of different shoreline scenarios demonstrates that hard frontal shorelines result in higher tidal amplification, whereas restored (soft) shorelines lower amplification. The current shoreline configuration has both hard and soft characteristics and results in an intermediate tidal response. In some areas, wetland restoration reduces extreme water levels by as much as 20 cm, whereas hard-shoreline addition elevates them by as much as 10 cm for 1.5 m of sea level rise. Furthermore, local floodgates can significantly reduce high water levels without major adverse effects elsewhere in San Francisco Bay. These findings point toward the justification for a range of adaptive measures across political boundaries, weighing hard and soft options in addressing the mounting danger of sea level rise.

California↗

USGS2016

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2011

Estimating the hatchery fraction of a natural population: a Bayesian approach

There is strong and growing interest in estimating the proportion of hatchery fish that are in a natural population (the hatchery fraction). In a sample of fish from the relevant population, some are observed to be marked, indicating their origin as hatchery fish. The observed proportion of marked fish is usually less than the actual hatchery fraction, since the observed proportion is determined by the proportion originally marked, differential survival (usually lower) of marked fish relative to unmarked hatchery fish, and rates of mark retention and detection. Bayesian methods can work well in a setting such as this, in which empirical data are limited but for which there may be considerable expert judgment regarding these values. We explored a Bayesian estimation of the hatchery fraction using Monte Carlo–Markov chain methods. Based on our findings, we created an interactive Excel tool to implement the algorithm, which we have made available for free.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS1992

Age and nature of the basement in northeastern Washington and northern Idaho: isotopic evidence from Mesozoic and Cenozoic granitoids

K-feldspar Pb and whole rock Nd isotopic analyses from 25 Mesozoic and Cenozoic plutonic rocks and two gneisses from NE Washington and northern Idaho are used to elucidate the age and nature of the concealed cratonic basement. The plutons form two highly distinct isotopie groups: Group I (hornblende-biotite and two-mica plutons of all ages) have Pb isotopie compositions suggesting derivation from rocks of the Belt Supergroup or their metamorphosed equivalents, although Nd isotopie data can only support this model if there was a significant input of juvenile mantle-derived or ancient light REE-depleted material. Group II (hornblende-biotite of Eocene age) have highly retarded Pb isotopie compositions relative to the present day crustal average and require a source region with long-term U (and other LIL) depletion, characteristic of cratonic lower crust. A U-Pb zircon upper intercept age of ca. 2600 Ma obtained from one of the Group II samples, together with Sm-Nd data from the gneisses, indicates possible late-Archean crust at depth, which acted as a source region for Eocene extension-related plutonism. Isotopie compositions and apparent geochemical evolution do not support a direct correlation with the nearest exposed North American Craton in the Wyoming province. If it represents attenuated pre-Mesozoic craton, then it must have been accreted to the craton prior to development of the miogeocline in the Late Proterozoic. Alternatively, it may be part of the Cordilleria terrane accreted to the craton in the Early Cretaceous.

Journal of Geology↗

USGS2023

A perched culvert and natural obstructions limit fish dispersal in an intermittent prairie stream

Poorly constructed road crossings block upstream movement of fish into stream reaches that provide critical habitat or connect isolated populations. Although removing these barriers is often a conservation priority, quantifying fish passage following removal has not been well studied, particularly in intermittent streams. In this study, we sought to understand how barriers influence the dispersal of fishes in intermittent prairie streams. We used passive integrated transponder tags and antenna stations to quantify fish movement of 3 prairie-stream fishes (Central Stoneroller Campostoma anomalum [Rafinesque, 1820], Southern Redbelly Dace Chrosomus erythrogaster [Rafinesque, 1820], and Creek Chub Semotilis atromaculatus [Mitchill, 1818]) through a road crossing in an intermittent prairie stream for 3 y before and 3 y after removing a perched culvert. We verified that no upstream fish movement occurred through the culvert, despite large aggregations of tagged fish in the intermittent reach below the culvert. In contrast, tagged individuals of all 3 species were detected above the road crossing in each of the 3 y following removal. We also tracked the recovery of these species, plus the Orangethroat Darter Etheostoma spectabile (Agassiz, 1854), following a severe drought in 2018 in 2 spring-fed tributary reaches, 1 without a downstream barrier and 1 with the removed downstream culvert. Surveys of the tributary reaches showed rapid recovery of fish densities following drought in the tributary without a downstream barrier. However, recovery at the site above the removed culvert appeared to be limited by a natural waterfall. Our observations suggest barrier removal allowed access to spawning habitat within the intermittent reach immediately upstream of the site, but other obstacles or shear distance to perennial spring-fed tributary reaches also limited recolonization following severe drought. Increased connectivity between perennial and intermittent reaches in prairie streams likely benefits fishes by increasing their resilience following disturbance and providing habitat during critical life stages.

Kansas↗

USGS2006

The proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-18 alters multiple signaling pathways to inhibit natural killer cell death

The proinflammatory cytokine, interleukin-18 (IL-18), is a natural killer (NK) cell activator that induces NK cell cytotoxicity and interferon-?? (IFN-??) expression. In this report, we define a novel role for IL-18 as an NK cell protective agent. Specifically, IL-18 prevents NK cell death initiated by different and distinct stress mechanisms. IL-18 reduces NK cell self-destruction during NK-targeted cell killing, and in the presence of staurosporin, a potent apoptotic inducer, IL-18 reduces caspase-3 activity. The critical regulatory step in this process is downstream of the mitochondrion and involves reduced cleavage and activation of caspase-9 and caspase-3. The ability of IL-18 to regulate cell survival is not limited to a caspase death pathway in that IL-18 augments tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling, resulting in increased and prolonged mRNA expression of c-apoptosis inhibitor 2 (cIAP2), a prosurvival factor and caspase-3 inhibitor, and TNF receptor-associated factor 1 (TRAF1), a prosurvival protein. The cumulative effects of IL-18 define a novel role for this cytokine as a molecular survival switch that functions to both decrease cell death through inhibition of the mitochondrial apoptotic pathway and enhance TNF induction of prosurvival factors. ?? Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Journal of Interferon and Cytokine Research↗

USGS2022

Causes, responses, and implications of anthropogenic versus natural flow intermittence in river networks

Rivers that do not flow year-round are the predominant type of running waters on Earth. Despite a burgeoning literature on natural flow intermittence (NFI), knowledge about the hydrological causes and ecological effects of human-induced, anthropogenic flow intermittence (AFI) remains limited. NFI and AFI could generate contrasting hydrological and biological responses in rivers because of distinct underlying causes of drying and evolutionary adaptations of their biota. We first review the causes of AFI and show how different anthropogenic drivers alter the timing, frequency and duration of drying, compared with NFI. Second, we evaluate the possible differences in biodiversity responses, ecological functions, and ecosystem services between NFI and AFI. Last, we outline knowledge gaps and management needs related to AFI. Because of the distinct hydrologic characteristics and ecological impacts of AFI, ignoring the distinction between NFI and AFI could undermine management of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams and exacerbate risks to the ecosystems and societies downstream.

BioScience↗

USGS2015

The natural sediment regime in rivers: broadening the foundation for ecosystem management

Water and sediment inputs are fundamental drivers of river ecosystems, but river management tends to emphasize flow regime at the expense of sediment regime. In an effort to frame a more inclusive paradigm for river management, we discuss sediment inputs, transport, and storage within river systems; interactions among water, sediment, and valley context; and the need to broaden the natural flow regime concept. Explicitly incorporating sediment is challenging, because sediment is supplied, transported, and stored by nonlinear and episodic processes operating at different temporal and spatial scales than water and because sediment regimes have been highly altered by humans. Nevertheless, managing for a desired balance between sediment supply and transport capacity is not only tractable, given current geomorphic process knowledge, but also essential because of the importance of sediment regimes to aquatic and riparian ecosystems, the physical template of which depends on sediment-driven river structure and function.

BioScience↗

USGS2022

Great diversity of KSα sequences from bat-associated microbiota suggests novel sources of uncharacterized natural products

Polyketide synthases (PKSs) are multidomain enzymes in microorganisms that synthesize complex, bioactive molecules. PKS II systems are iterative, containing only a single representative of each domain: ketosynthase alpha (KS α "> α � ⁠ ), ketosynthase beta and the acyl carrier protein. Any gene encoding for one of these domains is representative of an entire PKS II biosynthetic gene cluster (BGC). Bat skin surfaces represent an extreme environment prolific in Actinobacteria that may constitute a source for bioactive molecule discovery. KS α "> α � sequences were obtained from culturable bacteria from bats in the southwestern United States. From 467 bat bacterial isolates, we detected 215 (46%) had KS α "> α � sequences. Sequencing yielded 210 operational taxonomic units, and phylogenetic placement found 45 (21%) shared <85% homology to characterized metabolites. Additionally, 16 Actinobacteria genomes from the bat microbiome were analyzed for biosynthetic capacity. A range of 69–93% of the BGCs were novel suggesting the bat microbiome may contain valuable uncharacterized natural products. Documenting and characterizing these are important in understanding the susceptibility of bats to emerging infectious diseases, such as white-nose syndrome. Also noteworthy was the relationship between KS α "> α � homology and total BGC novelty within each fully sequenced strain. We propose amplification and detection of KS α "> α � could predict a strain's global biosynthetic capacity.

FEMS Microbiology Ecology↗

USGS2014

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M , of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M , (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age ( t max ), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M . We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t max -based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t max -based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on t max and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K . It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t max -based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t max -based estimator ( M = 4.899 t max − 0.916 "> M = 4.899 t − 0.916 max M=4.899tmax−0.916 , prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method ( M = 4.118 K 0.73 L ∞ − 0.33 "> M = 4.118 K 0.73 L − 0.33 ∞ M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error = 0.6, length in cm) otherwise.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2017

Estimating inbreeding rates in natural populations: Addressing the problem of incomplete pedigrees

Understanding and estimating inbreeding is essential for managing threatened and endangered wildlife populations. However, determination of inbreeding rates in natural populations is confounded by incomplete parentage information. We present an approach for quantifying inbreeding rates for populations with incomplete parentage information. The approach exploits knowledge of pedigree configurations that lead to inbreeding coefficients of F = 0.25 and F = 0.125, allowing for quantification of Pr( I | k ): the probability of observing pedigree I given the fraction of known parents ( k ). We developed analytical expressions under simplifying assumptions that define properties and behavior of inbreeding rate estimators for varying values of k . We demonstrated that inbreeding is overestimated if Pr( I | k ) is not taken into consideration and that bias is primarily influenced by k . By contrast, our new estimator, incorporating Pr( I | k ), is unbiased over a wide range of values of k that may be observed in empirical studies. Stochastic computer simulations that allowed complex inter- and intragenerational inbreeding produced similar results. We illustrate the effects that accounting for Pr( I | k ) can have in empirical data by revisiting published analyses of Arabian oryx ( Oryx leucoryx ) and Red deer ( Cervus elaphus ). Our results demonstrate that incomplete pedigrees are not barriers for quantifying inbreeding in wild populations. Application of our approach will permit a better understanding of the role that inbreeding plays in the dynamics of populations of threatened and endangered species and may help refine our understanding of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in the wild.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2017

Book review: Serendipity: An ecologist’s quest to understand nature

A common thought among graduate students is: “how do established scientists get where they are today?” In Serendipity: An Ecologist’s Quest to Understand Nature , James Estes offers a personal reflection on research experiences spanning his 50-year career, beginning as a Ph.D. student in 1970 and concluding with recognition as a member of the National Academy of Sciences in 2014. Estes chronologically outlines the foundational trophic cascade ecology research that he and colleagues conducted in the Aleutian Islands, examining key relationships among kelp forests, sea otters, sea urchins, and killer whales through anecdotal stories of achievement and challenge. Estes’ 3 main goals in writing this book are to: (1) recount what he had learned from 50 years of research;...

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2024

Insights on arc magmatic systems drawn from natural melt inclusions and crystallization experiments at P H2O =800 MPa under oxidizing conditions

Whole rock compositions at Buldir Volcano, western Aleutian arc, record a strong, continuous trend of iron depletion with decreasing MgO, classically interpreted as a calc-alkaline liquid line of descent. In contrast, olivine-hosted melt inclusions have higher total iron (FeO * ) than whole rocks and show little change in FeO* with decreasing MgO. To investigate this discrepancy and determine the conditions required for strong iron depletion, we conducted oxygen fugacity (ƒO 2 ) buffered, water-saturated crystallization experiments at 800 MPa and ƒO 2 = QFM + 1.6 ± 0.4 (1σ⁠) (where QFM refers to the quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer) on a high-Al, basaltic starting material modeled after a Buldir lava. Experimental conditions were informed by olivine-hosted melt inclusions that record minimum entrapment pressures as high as 570 MPa, >6 wt % H2O, and ƒO 2 of QFM + 1.4 (±0.2), making Buldir one of the most oxidized and wettest arc volcanoes documented globally. The experiments produce melts with Si-enrichment and Fe-depletion signatures characteristic of evolved, calc-alkaline magmas at the lowest MgO, although FeO * remains roughly constant over most of the experimental temperature range. Experiments saturate CrAl-spinel and olivine at 1160°C, followed by clinopyroxene and Al-spinel at 1085°C, hornblende at 1060°C, and, finally, plagioclase and magnetite between 1040°C and 960°C. Hornblende crystallization, not magnetite, generates the largest increase in SiO2 and largest decrease in FeO * in coexisting melts. Compositions of melt inclusions are consistent with experimental melts and reflect crystallization of a basaltic parent magma at high P H2O . In contrast, the whole rock compositional trends are influenced by magma mixing and phenocryst redistribution and accumulation. The crystallization experiments and natural liquids (melt inclusions and groundmass glass) from Buldir suggest that for an oxidized, hydrous primary basalt starting composition, significant Fe depletion from the melt will not occur until intermediate to late stages of magma crystallization (< ~4.5 wt % MgO). We conclude that the Buldir whole rock trend cannot be reproduced by crystallization at arc-relevant oxygen fugacities and is not a true liquid line of descent, warranting caution when interpreting volcanic trends globally.

Journal of Petrology↗

USGS1996

Use of 13C NMR and ftir for elucidation of degradation pathways during natural litter decomposition and composting I. early stage leaf degradation

Oxidative degradation of plant tissue leads to the formation of natural dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and humus. Infrared (IR) and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometry have been used to elucidate the chemical reactions of the early stages of degradation that give rise to DOC derived from litter and compost. The results of this study indicate that oxidation of the lignin components of plant tissue follows the sequence of O-demethylation, and hydroxylation followed by ring-fission, chain-shortening, and oxidative removal of substituents. Oxidative ring-fission leads to the formation of carboxylic acid groups on the cleaved ends of the rings and, in the process, transforms phenolic groups into aliphatic alcoholic groups. The carbohydrate components are broken down into aliphatic hydroxy acids and aliphatic alcohols.

Soil Science↗

USGS2016

Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2021

Land surface temperature differences between natural and artificial turf sports fields as estimated from satellite: Examples from the United States and Europe

An increasing number of sports fields around the world are equipped with artificial turf. This solution has been endorsed by numerous sports federations, despite concerns about the potential for injuries and higher surface temperatures. In this work we analyzed land surface temperature in 4 pairs of natural and artificial turf sports fields in Europe and the United States using Landsat-8 data. Surface temperatures in the artificial turf fields were found to be significantly higher (14.8 K in one case) with important variability throughout the year. Landsat imagery processed using Google Earth Engine was demonstrated to be adequate to profile surface temperatures across seasons and support both research and decision making. This work is part of a broader effort to generate a comprehensive database of surface temperature in sports fields under different conditions.

Conference Paper↗