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USGS2012

A climate trend analysis of Senegal

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady in Senegal over the past 20 years but are 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.9° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * The amount of farmland per person is low and declining rapidly. * Current population and agriculture trends could lead to a 30-percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2020

Trends in recent historical and projected climate data for the Colorado River Basin and potential effects on groundwater availability

Understanding recent historical and projected trends in precipitation and temperature in the Colorado River Basin, and estimating what the projected changes in these climate parameters may mean for groundwater resources in the region, is important for water managers and policymakers to sustainably manage water resources in the basin. Historical (1896–2019) precipitation and temperature data for the upper and lower Colorado River Basins were analyzed to better understand recent trends in climate data that may affect groundwater resources in the area. Historical data indicate multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in precipitation in both the upper and lower basins. Although upper basin precipitation had no statistical trend over the recent historical period, the lower basin had a weak negative trend over this period. Multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in temperature also are observed in historical climate data in both the upper and lower basins, at least until the early 1970s. Beginning at that time, both the upper and lower basins experienced strong, monotonic positive trends in temperature. Basic principles of hydrology indicate that periods of decreasing precipitation as well as increasing temperature would have a negative effect, that is, reduction in groundwater infiltration and hence, reduced recharge of aquifer systems. Projected climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble members across the full range of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) from water years 1951 through 2099 were evaluated to understand what current global climate models are projecting about future conditions in the Colorado River Basin, and what this might mean for groundwater systems in the region. Precipitation in the upper basin is projected to increase throughout the rest of the century, rising to 6 percent above the 1951–2015 historical period by mid-century and to 9 percent above the historical period by the end of the century. Temperature in the upper basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century, with steady warming in decadal average temperatures expected until the last quarter of this century. In contrast to projected precipitation in the upper basin, precipitation in the lower basin is projected to be the same as, or slightly less than, the historical period throughout most of the rest of this century. Like projected temperature in the upper basin, temperature in the lower basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century. Comparing median projections for all future decades with median results from all historical decades, future precipitation is expected to be greater than that of the past in the upper basin, though no significant difference is projected for precipitation in the lower basin. Significant increases (p-value<0.05) are expected in temperature in both the upper and lower basins. To estimate the effects of projected precipitation and temperature on groundwater systems in the region, results from the 97 member CMIP5 climate projection ensemble were used as input in a Soil-Water Balance (SWB) groundwater infiltration model for the Colorado River Basin. SWB simulation results indicate that the upper Colorado River Basin is expected to experience decades of above-historical-average groundwater infiltration through the end of the century. For the lower Colorado River Basin, simulated groundwater infiltration is projected to be consistently less than the recent (1951–2015) historical period for most of the remaining century. A comparison of the distribution of all median simulated groundwater infiltration results between recent historical and future periods indicates projected groundwater infiltration in the upper basin is significantly (p-value<0.05) greater over the combined 2020–2099 future period than the recent (1951–2015) historical period. Moreover, in 41 of 71 (58 percent) possible future decades in this century, groundwater infiltration is projected to be greater than the 75th percentile of historical simulated groundwater infiltration. Projected groundwater infiltration in the lower Colorado River Basin across all future decades is significantly less than in the historical period. Of the 71 future decades in the century, projected groundwater infiltration in the lower basin is expected to be less than the 25th percentile of historical infiltration in 55 (77 percent) of the 10-year periods. Important differences in projected precipitation between the upper (increasing precipitation) and lower (decreasing precipitation) basins largely drive the different responses of simulated groundwater infiltration in the upper (increasing infiltration) and lower (decreasing infiltration) basins. It will be useful to revisit projections in groundwater infiltration in the Colorado River Basin when more up-to-date projections of precipitation become available from the next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases or by using climate input developments through Regional Climate Modeling efforts and stochastic weather generators.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2026

Effects of human activity on Khumbu Glacier: Towards a sustainable Everest Base Camp

The Everest Base Camp (EBC), a critical staging area for mountaineers attempting to summit Mount Everest, has seen a significant increase in human activity over the past few decades. The increasing number of climbers, trekkers, and support staff, particularly at the campsite area, has intensified environmental impacts on the Khumbu Glacier. This study investigates the effects of human activity at EBC, focusing on three contributors to glacier melt: global climate change, local fossil fuel consumption, and human urinary discharge. Through field data collected during the spring 2023 climbing season, this study examines the energy released through the use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and petrol for cooking, heating, and electricity, as well as the heat generated by human urinary discharge. The total heat energy released from these activities at EBC in the spring of 2023 was 849,174 ± 179,774 MJ, which would be sufficient to melt 2492 ± 528 tons of glacier ice and snow. Trends in land surface temperature at EBC and adjacent environments during the 1991–2023 period were calculated from Landsat 5, 7, and 9 satellite data. The 32-year Landsat record reveals that EBC surface temperature increased by 0.28 °C year −1 , which was roughly twice the rate of warming at the surface of Khumbu Glacier adjacent to EBC and about 15% higher than the temperature increase of the debris-covered terrain immediately to the north of EBC. The findings suggest that addressing these anthropogenic influences could help to preserve the Khumbu Glacier and support the sustainability of mountaineering in the region. This paper also takes a transformative approach and explores stable and safer locations in case there is a necessity to relocate the current EBC. Two sites have been identified southwest of the existing EBC, which, unlike the current supraglacial site, are situated on stable ground.

Everest Base Camp, Khumbu Glacier↗

USGS2022

Guide for interpreting and reporting luminescence dating results

The development and application of luminescence dating and dosimetry techniques have grown exponentially in the last several decades. Luminescence methods provide age control for a broad range of geological and archaeological contexts and can characterize mineral and glass properties linked to geologic origin, Earth-surface processes, and past exposure to light, heat, and ionizing radiation. The applicable age range for luminescence methods spans the last 500,000 years or more, which covers the period of modern human evolution, and provides context for rates and magnitudes of geological processes, hazards, and climate change. Given the growth in applications and publications of luminescence data, there is a need for unified, community-driven guidance regarding the publication and interpretation of luminescence results. This paper presents a guide to the essential information necessary for publishing and archiving luminescence ages as well as supporting data that is transportable and expandable for different research objectives and publication outlets. We outline the information needed for the interpretation of luminescence data sets, including data associated with equivalent dose, dose rate, age models, and stratigraphic context. A brief review of the fundamentals of luminescence techniques and applications, including guidance on sample collection and insight into laboratory processing and analysis steps, is presented to provide context for publishing and data archiving.

GSA Bulletin↗

USGS2011

Using observed warming to identify hazards to Mozambique maize production

New Perspectives on Crop Yield Constraints because of Climate Change. Climate change impact assessments usually focus on changes to precipitation because most global food production is from rainfed cropping systems; however, other aspects of climate change may affect crop growth and potential yields.A recent (2011) study by the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Group, determined that climate change may be affecting Mozambique's primary food crop in a usually overlooked, but potentially significant way (Harrison and others, 2011). The study focused on the direct relation between maize crop development and growing season temperature. It determined that warming during the past three decades in Mozambique may be causing more frequent crop stress and yield reductions in that country's maize crop, independent of any changes occurring in rainfall. This report summarizes the findings and conclusions of that study.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2025

Book review: Ecology of Dakota landscapes: Past, present, and future, by W. Carter Johnson and Dennis H. Knight

“Ecology of Dakota Landscapes” is an excellent example of fusing observation and scientific studies to describe the origins and development of the landscape of North and South Dakota, the impact of European settlement, the introduction of agriculture to the area, predictions for the future in the face of a changing climate, and a scientific framework for conservation and sustainability. Johnson and Knight bring to this book a personal fascination with this landscape. Their decades of experience and knowledge of the ecosystems of the Dakotas is exhibited in the well written and copiously illustrated thirteen chapters. This book blends observation, geology, biology, ecology, history, the transformation of this landscape by European settlement, and identifies the challenges that will be faced with climate change. Johnson and Knight are master storytellers that allow them to present these important concepts and ideas to a general audience.

Prairie Naturalist↗

USGS2003

GHASTLI — Determining physical properties of sediment containing natural and laboratory-formed gas hydrate

Gas-hydrate samples have been recovered at about 16 areas worldwide (Booth et al., 1996). However, gas hydrate is known to occur at about 50 locations on continental margins (Kvenvolden, 1993) and is certainly far more widespread so it may represent a potentially enormous energy resource (Kvenvolden, 1988). But adverse effects related to the presence of hydrate do occur. Gas hydrate appears to have caused slope instabilities along continental margins (Booth et al., 1994; Dillon et al., 1998; Mienert et al., 1998; Paull & Dillon, (Chapter 12; Twichell & Cooper, 2000) and it has also been responsible for drilling accidents (Yakushev and Collett, 1992). Uncontrolled release of methane could affect global climate (Chapter 11), because methane is 15–20 times more effective as a “greenhouse gas” than an equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide. Clearly, a knowledge of gas-hydrate properties is necessary to safely explore the possibility of energy recovery and to understand its past and future impact on the geosphere.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

A large sediment accretion wave along a northern California littoral cell

The northern California littoral cell of the Klamath River, which is a mixed rocky and sandy system with significant shoreline curvature, was investigated by examining ∼40 yr of satellite-derived shoreline positions and historical records. We find that an accretion wave of sediment was initiated near the Klamath River mouth in the late 1980s and translated downcoast over the subsequent decades. The wave passed rapidly (∼2,500 m/yr) through a rocky coastal reach with more oblique wave directions and slowly through a sandy reach (∼200 m/yr) where wave crests approach at more normal angles. Within the sandy reach, the accretion wave extended over 200 m offshore, was ∼10 km long, incorporated 20 ± 6 million m 3 of sediment, and averaged 1.3 ± 0.4 million m 3 /yr of longshore sediment transport over a 20-yr interval. Diffusion of the accretion wave was observed, but the diffusivity coefficient ( ε obs ∼0.01 m 2 /s) was lower than values predicted by theory, which we attribute to net sediment transport convergence in the study area caused by the curvature of the shoreline. Examining historical records, we find that increased sediment discharge in the Klamath River occurred during the 20th century from industrial-scale logging and climatic extremes. Thus, we hypothesize that increased river sediment discharge introduced new sediment to the littoral cell that initiated the observed accretion wave. These hypotheses can be tested with stratigraphic and mineralogic investigations of the broad study area beach that has formed during the past 150 years.

California↗

USGS2005

Effects of urban land-use change on streamflow and water quality in Oakland County, Michigan, 1970-2003, as inferred from urban gradient and temporal analysis

Various adverse hydrologic effects on streams have been attributed to urban development and expanded impervious surface area, including increased high flows, decreased low flows, increased variability (commonly referred to as flashiness), nutrient enrichment, and increased dissolved solids concentrations. These effects are often observed through the use of urban-gradient studies, which compare hydrologic characteristics among watersheds with different levels of development. This technique is frequently applied when comparable prior data are not available for the watersheds of interest. During 1966 - 1970, and again during 2001 - 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey collected a series of low-flow water-chemistry samples. Streamflow-gaging stations were operated throughout the period from 1966- 2003 as part of ongoing monitoring operations. This study compares these two water-quality data sets; tests the streamflow data for trends in high flows, low flows, and flashiness; and correlates 2000 land use with water-quality and streamflow data collected during the 2001 - 2003 study. Despite substantial change in land use during 1980 - 2000, with urban land covers replacing open space, forest, and agriculture, little evidence is found in the time-series data of alteration of the daily streamflow characteristics or nutrient enrichment in the study watersheds. However, a distinct shift is observable in chloride concentrations. Strong positive correlations exist across the urban gradient between development and increased peak flows as well as between development and increased flashiness. Correlations of water-quality data to development metrics show strong positive correlations with increased dissolved solids and salt content, as well as increased concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria ( Eschericia coli ). This apparent contradiction may be caused by the differences in the changes measured in each analysis. The change-through-time approach describes change from a fixed starting point of approximately 1970; the gradient approach describes the cumulative effect of all change up to approximately 2000. These findings indicate that although urbanization in Oakland County results in most of the effects observed in the literature, as evidenced in the gradient approach, relatively few of the anticipated effects have been observed during the past three decades. This relative stability despite rapid land-cover change may be related to efforts to mitigate the effects of development and a general decrease in the density of new residential development. It may also be related to external factors such as climate variability and reduced atmospheric deposition of specific chemicals.

Michigan↗

USGS2009

Past permafrost on the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, eastern United States

Sand-wedge casts, soil wedges and other non-diastrophic, post-depositional sedimentary structures suggest that Late-Pleistocene permafrost and deep seasonal frost on the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain extended at least as far south as southern Delaware, the Eastern Shore and southern Maryland. Heterogeneous cold-climate slope deposits mantle lower valley-side slopes in central Maryland. A widespread pre-existing fragipan is congruent with the inferred palaeo-permafrost table. The high bulk density of the fragipan was probably enhanced by either thaw consolidation when icy permafrost degraded at the active layer-permafrost interface or by liquefaction and compaction when deep seasonal frost thawed. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes↗

USGS2010

Ecoregion and land-use influence invertebrate and detritus transport from headwater streams

Summary 1. Habitats are often connected by fluxes of energy and nutrients across their boundaries. For example, headwater streams are linked to surrounding riparian vegetation through invertebrate and leaf litter inputs, and there is evidence that consumers in downstream habitats are subsidised by resources flowing from headwater systems. However, the strength of these linkages and the manner in which potential headwater subsidies vary along climatic and disturbance gradients are unknown. 2. We quantified the downstream transport of invertebrates, organic matter and inorganic sediment from 60 fishless headwater streams in the Wenatchee River Basin located on the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington, U.S.A. Streams were classified into four groups (each n = 15) based on their position within two ecological subregions (wet and dry) and the extent of past timber harvest and road development (logged and unlogged). 3. Time and ecoregion were significant for all response variables as transport varied across sampling periods, and dry ecoregion streams displayed significantly higher mean values. Logged sites also generally showed higher mean transport, but only inorganic sediment transport was significantly higher in logged sites. Both ecoregion and land-use interacted significantly with time depending on the response variable. Differences among stream categories were driven by relatively low levels of transport in unlogged drainages of the wet ecoregion. Interestingly, unlogged dry ecoregion streams showed comparable transport rates to logged sites in the wet ecoregion. Dominance by deciduous riparian vegetation in all but unlogged streams in the wet ecoregion is a primary hypothesised mechanism determining transport dynamics in our study streams. 4. Understanding the quantity and variation of headwater subsidies across climate and disturbance gradients is needed to appreciate the significance of ecological linkages between headwaters and associated downstream habitats. This will enable the accurate assessment of resource management impacts on stream ecosystems. Predicting the consequences of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on headwater stream transport rates will require knowledge of how both local and regional factors influence these potential subsidies. Our results suggest that resources transported from headwater streams reflect both the meso-scale land-use surrounding these areas and the constraints imposed by the ecoregion in which they are embedded.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2026

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona↗

USGS2018

The North American carbon budget: Past, present, and future

This chapter nicely summarizes and synthesizes the latest scientific information on the North American carbon budget by incorporating terrestrial, anthropogenic, aquatic, and coastal margin CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics. Starting with a historical context, the chapter summarizes current understanding of the magnitudes and trends of carbon stocks and fluxes at the continental scale. It also provides a regional context by stratifying the continent to countries and climate assessment regions and discusses the societal drivers, impacts, and carbon management decisions. Knowledge gaps and research needs are also identified. This chapter is well-written and clearly organized, and provides a broad context beyond individual chapters. Some of the main ways the chapter can be improved include the following: some work is needed on the Key Findings (discussed below); the goals and objectives should be explicitly described; critical content areas missing from the chapter are interannual variability of carbon fluxes and impacts of severe and extended droughts; indicators and feedbacks are missing from Section 2.4; consistent use of units is recommended; numbers with 3-4 significant digits over-state the confidence the reader should have, and all numbers should include uncertainties. And one broader concern to note: This chapter follows the global overview in Chapter 1, where “sinks” are sinks in the cycle perturbed by anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 , and the assumption is that globally, the net unperturbed background sinks are zero summed across all reservoirs. Yet in this chapter, “sinks” are net fluxes out of the atmosphere, background + perturbation. For the coastal ocean, inland waters, etc.—where lateral transport is significant—these sources and sinks include background/pre-industrial fluxes that are balanced by fluxes elsewhere. These distinctions must be made clear so that the reader is not given an impression of a greater or lesser sink for anthropogenic CO 2 than is there (e.g., P74, lines 4-6).

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Rapid monitoring of the abundance and spread of exotic annual grasses in the western United States using remote sensing and machine learning

Exotic annual grasses (EAG) are one of the most damaging agents of change in western North America. Despite known socio-environmental effects of EAG there remains a need to enhance monitoring capabilities for better informing conservation and management practices. Here, we integrate field observations, remote sensing and climate data with machine-learning techniques to estimate and assess patterns of historical (1985–2019; R 2 = 0.86 ± 0.05; MAE = 6.7 ± 1.4%), present (2020), and future (2025–2040) EAG abundance (30-m) across much of the western United States. Trend analysis revealed that ∼8% and 1% of the landscape experienced significant rises and declines in historical EAG cover, respectively, with hotspots of invasion generally occurring near roads and along low-to-mid elevation gradients with warmer and drier conditions. Accurate simulations of the response of EAG to changing environmental conditions, disturbances and management treatments indicate that ecosystem resistance to invasion is largely controlled by long-term EAG abundance (surrogate for seed bank), time since and frequency of wildfire, and plant community interactions. Ecological thresholds associated with enhanced probabilities of wildfire occurrence and invasion rates indicate that relatively little (10%) EAG cover is needed to heighten these risks. Climate change is expected to push 8% of the landscape across invasion thresholds by 2040, impacting 6% of existing sage-grouse habitat, and we identify where fuel breaks may be placed to reduce wildfire risks and invasion. Spatially detailed, timely, and accurate depictions of past, present, and future EAG abundance are vital for the protection of life and property and the continued stewardship of sagebrush ecosystems.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗

USGS2025

Diverging fish biodiversity trends in cold and warm rivers and streams

Worldwide, freshwater systems contain more than 18,000 fish species 1,2,3 , which are critical to the functioning of these ecosystems 4 and are vital cultural and economic resources to humans 5,6,7 ; despite this value, fish biodiversity is at risk globally 8,9 . In the USA, leading threats to fish communities in rivers and streams include climate change and invasive fish introductions and game fish stocking by humans 10,11,12,13,14 . Here we harmonized US federal biomonitoring datasets with 389 species spanning 27 years (1993–2019) and 2,992 sites to analyse trends in fish biodiversity. In cold streams (past summer stream temperatures below 15.4 °C), fish abundance and richness declined by 53.4% and 32% over 27 years, respectively, and uniqueness increased. Periodic (large-bodied, late-maturing) fishes increased, and opportunists (small-bodied, short generation time, ‘r-selected’) decreased, possibly due to proliferation of native or introduced game fishes. In warm streams (stream temperatures greater than 23.8 °C), fish abundance and richness increased by 70.5% and 15.6% over 27 years, respectively, and communities homogenized. Small opportunistic fishes replaced large periodic fishes. Intermediate streams (stream temperatures 15.4–23.8 °C), representing the average stream, had minimal changes in fish biodiversity through time. Interactions between warming and introduced fish were associated with increased rates of degradation to local fish biodiversity. Given the magnitude of these changes in a relatively short time span, there is an urgent need to curb degradation of fish biodiversity caused by fish introductions and warming water temperatures.

continental United States↗

USGS2026

Reconstructing Great Lakes air temperature and ice dynamics data back to 1897

Ice cover on the Great Lakes plays an important role in regional climate, supports tourism and recreation, and provides ecological habitat. As the climate warms, ice cover in the Great Lakes is expected to decline, which in turn will create more lake effect precipitation, reduce ice cover for recreation, and alter habitat for aquatic species. While it is important to understand the historical ice patterns to better understand past distributions of aquatic species and improve the accuracy of forecasts for future ice cover on the lakes, Great Lakes ice cover data prior to 1973 is scarce, due to the limited routine satellite observations. We used weather station data around the Great Lakes to compile daily air temperature, calculate cumulative freezing degree-days and net melting degree-days from 1897–2023, and develop raster layers estimating ice duration and variability spatially during the historical period from 1897–1960.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2000

Chronology and geochemistry of late Holocene eolian deposits in the Brandon Sand Hills, Manitoba, Canada

Accelerator mass spectrometry and conventional radiocarbon age determinations of organic matter from paleosols indicate that the Brandon Sand Hills area of southern Manitoba has been subjected to recurrent intervals of eolian activity in the past 5000 years. Although precise regional correlations are precluded by dating uncertainties, periods of most notable paleosol development occurred around 2300 to 2000, 1400 to 1000, and 600 to 500 cal yr BP with eolian activity occurring before and after each of these periods. Episodes of eolian activity may correspond to periods of regional drought, whereas paleosols mark periods of increased moisture availability and stabilization by vegetation. The geochemistry of the eolian sands, paleosols and source sediments indicates that partial leaching of carbonates occurs from pedogenesis during humid climatic phases, and that this is probably the primary mechanism of carbonate depletion of eolian sands in this area. Recent trends in sand dune activity from historic aerial photography and early explorers' accounts indicate that the few active dunes that presently exist have stabilized at a rate of 10-20% per decade, despite several severe droughts in the 20th century. This may be attributed to pre-settlement droughts that were more severe than those in historic times although regional dune stabilization may also be related, in part, to the spread of forest cover in the past few hundred years. Crown copyright (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quaternary International↗