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North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) scenario planning summary report

Scenario planning provides a structured framework that can be used in strategic planning to help manage risk and prioritize actions (Schwartz 1996; Peterson et al. 2003). By providing a mechanism to communicate about complex situations, scenario planning encourages “out-of-the-box” thinking to help groups assess the impacts of plausible future scenarios on a target or resource. The outcomes from scenario planning can be used to improve management decisions, highlight data gaps, and/or identify future science priorities (Star et al. 2015; Borggaard et al. 2019). The application of scenario planning by resource management organizations (e.g., Borggaard et al. 2019; Runyon et al. 2020; Star et al. 2015) and the urgency surrounding the recovery of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), led to a 2018 NOAA Fisheries scenario planning initiative for the species. In addition to complementing the many management and conservation efforts already underway, this initiative was designed to address the uncertainties around future anthropogenic and environmental changes and how these uncertainties may impact species recovery. We used a scenario planning framework to explore plausible future conditions for North Atlantic right whales and to develop possible options to address those conditions and improve recovery. Specific objectives were to: 1) better understand the challenges of right whale management in a changing climate; 2) identify potential research activities and recovery needs across the species’ range; 3) increase coordination and collaboration related to recovery efforts; and 4) explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Using projected changes in ocean conditions coupled with anthropogenic stressors, we built four plausible future scenarios for right whales. These scenarios helped identify priority research and management actions that NOAA Fisheries and our partners can undertake to improve right whale recovery. We identified priority actions related to science, management, and partnerships including, but not limited to, 1) research on shifting spatial and temporal distributions of right whales and prey in a changing climate; 2) development of technology to further reduce impacts from human activities; 3) continuation of ongoing management efforts related to vessel traffic and fishing; and 4) continued maintenance of existing and development of new partnerships (e.g., industry engagement in problem solving). This scenario planning exercise helped prioritize North Atlantic right whale management and science needs in light of changing ocean conditions and anthropogenic impacts. It can also serve as a reference for how NOAA Fisheries and its partners can better prepare for multiple plausible futures while complementing other on-going initiatives. Priorities identified here can be considered in conjunction with implementation and monitoring actions such as with the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (ALWTRT) and/or regional Right Whale U.S. Implementation Teams. The framework can also be repeated and improved upon as additional information becomes available to support future exercises.

Technical Memorandum↗

Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling. Final report

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species-specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database. Our approach consists of five main components: 1. A review of the primary scientific literature on statistical modeling of animal group size and avian count data to develop a candidate set of statistical distributions that have been used or may be useful to model seabird counts. 2. Statistical power curves for one-sample, one-tailed Monte Carlo significance tests of differences of observed small-sample means from a specified reference distribution. These curves show the power to detect "hotspots" or "coldspots" of occurrence and abundance at a range of effect sizes, given assumptions which we discuss. 3. A model selection procedure, based on maximum likelihood fits of models in the candidate set, to determine an appropriate statistical distribution to describe counts of a given species in a particular region and season. 4. Using a large database of historical at-sea seabird survey data, we applied this technique to identify appropriate statistical distributions for modeling a variety of species, allowing the distribution to vary by season. For each species and season, we used the selected distribution to calculate and map retrospective statistical power to detect hotspots and coldspots, and map pvalues from Monte Carlo significance tests of hotspots and coldspots, in discrete lease blocks designated by the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). 5. Because our definition of hotspots and coldspots does not explicitly include variability over time, we examine the relationship between the temporal scale of sampling and the proportion of variance captured in time series of key environmental correlates of marine bird abundance, as well as available marine bird abundance time series, and use these analyses to develop recommendations for the temporal distribution of sampling to adequately represent both shortterm and long-term variability. We conclude by presenting a schematic “decision tree” showing how this power analysis approach would fit in a general framework for avian survey design, and discuss implications of model assumptions and results. We discuss avenues for future development of this work, and recommendations for practical implementation in the context of siting and wildlife assessment for offshore renewable energy development projects.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

A management-focused population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales

The North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) is among the most endangered whale species in the world and has been in decline since 2010. Considerable effort is directed toward its recovery by striving to remove threats. In this report, we describe the development of a population viability analysis for right whales that is designed to assess the current status, evaluate the contributions of various threats, and explore the management interventions needed to achieve recovery. The individual-based model that underlies this analysis accounts for age- and stagespecific survival and reproductive rates, the effects of severe injury from entanglement or vessel strike, and future changes in prey availability and accessibility. Several new or updated empirical analyses supplied parameter estimates, and parametric uncertainty was carefully incorporated into the model results. We find that under the status quo conditions of 2019, prior to the enactment of new regulations by the U.S. and Canada after 2020, the North Atlantic right whale population would be expected to continue to fall, with a median decline of 75% in 100 years (95% projection interval, –98% to +9% change) and a probability of falling below 50 proven females of 0.934 in 100 years. If the recently enacted regulations reduce entanglement risk by 25%, however, the population would be expected to decrease by 42% over 100 years (95% projection interval –92% to +154% change), with a risk of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years of 0.705. If, instead, the recently enacted regulations reduce entanglement risk by 50%, the population would be expected to increase by 52% in 100 years (95% projection interval –83% to +497% change), with a probability of falling below 50 proven females of 0.349. Of the 3 primary threats explored in this analysis, the risk of entanglement contributes the most to the long-term risk of quasi-extinction, followed closely by the risk of vessel strike, and much more distantly by a decrease in prey availability. In hypothetical scenarios that fully remove one threat at a time, removal of the entanglement threat alone reduces the probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years from 0.934 to 0.053; removal of the vessel strike threat alone reduces it to 0.343; and a return to higher prey conditions, but with both human-related threats still in place, reduces it to 0.875. We explored a wide range of management intervention scenarios that changed the rate of entanglement risk (e.g., endline reductions, closures, implementation of ropeless/on-demand gear); the effect of entanglement (through use of weak rope technology); the rate of vessel traffic increase over time; and the severity of vessel strike risk through speed restrictions. We found, for example, that reducing entanglement risk alone by 25% reduces the risk of quasi-extinction from 0.934 to 0.705; reducing vessel strike risk alone by 25% reduces the risk of quasi-extinction from 0.934 to 0.846; but the combination of reducing both entanglement risk and vessel strike risk by 25% reduces the risk of quasi-extinction to 0.528. This model and the results it produced are meant to represent an assessment of the current status of North Atlantic right whales using the best available scientific and commercial data and state-of-the-art analytical tools. Our knowledge of the future of the right whale population, however, has limitations. We have endeavored to fully incorporate uncertainty into this model, but there are many areas for continued improvement. We view this model as a living tool that can be improved, adapted, and extended as new data, new methods, and new questions arise.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin↗

Coral disease and health workshop: Coral histopathology II, July 12-14, 2005

The health and continued existence of coral reef ecosystems are threatened by an increasing array of environmental and anthropogenic impacts. Coral disease is one of the prominent causes of increased mortality among reefs globally, particularly in the Caribbean. Although over 40 different coral diseases and syndromes have been reported worldwide, only a few etiological agents have been confirmed; most pathogens remain unknown and the dynamics of disease transmission, pathogenicity and mortality are not understood. Causal relationships have been documented for only a few of the coral diseases, while new syndromes continue to emerge. Extensive field observations by coral biologists have provided substantial documentation of a plethora of new pathologies, but our understanding, however, has been limited to descriptions of gross lesions with names reflecting these observations (e.g., black band, white band, dark spot). To determine etiology, we must equip coral diseases scientists with basic biomedical knowledge and specialized training in areas such as histology, cell biology and pathology. Only through combining descriptive science with mechanistic science and employing the synthesis epizootiology provides will we be able to gain insight into causation and become equipped to handle the pending crisis. One of the critical challenges faced by coral disease researchers is to establish a framework to systematically study coral pathologies drawing from the field of diagnostic medicine and pathology and using generally accepted nomenclature. This process began in April 2004, with a workshop titled Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Developing Diagnostic Criteria co-convened by the Coral Disease and Health Consortium (CDHC), a working group organized under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, and the International Registry for Coral Pathology (IRCP). The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) in Madison, Wisconsin and was focused on gross morphology and disease signs observed in the field. A resounding recommendation from the histopathologists participating in the workshop was the urgent need to develop diagnostic criteria that are suitable to move from gross observations to morphological diagnoses based on evaluation of microscopic anatomy. As a continuation of building the foundation and framework for coral disease diagnostics, the CDHC convened the Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Coral Histopathology II in Charleston, South Carolina, July 11-14, 2005. The workshop was hosted by the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC which provided expertise, facilities and equipment in support of the workshop. All of the histological slides and related photographs used in the discussions were prepared and supplied by the IRCP. This workshop brought together 15 experts in veterinary and medical pathology and coral biology from national and international research institutes and government laboratories. The mission was to devise a standardized approach to examining microscopic anatomy and pathology of corals and a standardized nomenclature to facilitate accurate descriptions of the microscopic morphology of corals and enhance communication among specialists investigating causes of coral death. 2 The participants of this workshop deliberated for 3 days to refine the nomenclature for gross and microscopic anatomy of corals and systematically described microscopic changes associated with selected coral diseases. The findings and recommendations from the deliberations will be submitted to the research community for peer review. The standardized nomenclature and descriptions produced at this workshop will ultimately be made available to the scientific community through a variety of media including the World Wide Web. An exciting highlight of this meeting was provided by Professor Robert Ogilvie (MUSC Department of Cell Biology and Anatomy) when he introduced participants to a new digital technology that is revolutionizing histology and histopathology in the medical field. The Virtual Slide technology creates digital images of histological tissue sections by computer scanning actual slides in high definition and storing the images for retrieval and viewing. Virtual slides now allow any investigator with access to a computer and the web to view, search, annotate and comment on the same tissue sections in real time. Medical and veterinary slide libraries across the country are being converted into virtual slides to enhance biomedical education, research and diagnosis. The coral health and disease researchers at this workshop deem virtual slides as a significant way to increase capabilities in coral histology and a means for pathology consultations on coral disease cases on a global scale.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

Hydrogeology Journal in 2002

Hydrogeology Journal appeared in six issues containing a total of 674 pages and 47 major articles, including 22 Papers and 24 Reports, as well as Technical Notes and Book Reviews. The final issue of 2002 also contained the annual volume index. Hydrogeology Journal (HJ) is an international forum for hydrogeology and related disciplines. Authors in 2002 were from about 30 countries. Articles advanced hydrogeologic science and described hydrogeologic systems in many regions worldwide. These articles focused on 22 countries: Afghanistan, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Portugal, Qatar, Switzerland, Syria, Turkey, UK, and the USA. The Guest Editors of the 2002 HJ theme issue on "Groundwater Recharge", Bridget R. Scanlon and Peter G. Cook, assembled a highly relevant and sought-after collection of papers from eminent authors on wide-ranging aspects of the subject.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Using semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) to assess the toxicity and teratogenicity of aquatic amphibian habitats

Environmental contamination has been suspected of being partially responsible for recent declines in amphibian populations. It is often not feasible to identify all of the compounds in an environment, nor the concentrations in which they are present. SPMDs are passive sampling devices that uptake lipophilic compounds from the environment in a manner similar to aquatic organisms. The extracts from the SPMDs, therefore, contain a composite sample of the compounds that are present in the environment. In this paper, we outline the methods from studies in which we have used extracts from SPMDs in toxicity tests on amphibian larvae. Using SPMD extracts makes it possible to establish potential links between amphibian deformities and declines and environmental contamination by lipophilic compounds.

ASTM Special Technical Publication↗

Methods for assessing the impacts of ultraviolet-B radiation on aquatic invertebrates

A standard methodology for assessing the impacts of simulated solar ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B) on aquatic invertebrates was established. A solar simulator was used to expose a variety of aquatic invertebrates to different levels of UV-B. The simulator was calibrated as close as possible to match local ambient solar radiation measured in and out of water with a scanning spectroradiometer. A series of repeated exposures were conducted to determine the effects of UV-B on two species of Ceriodaphnia . Survivorship of C. reticulata declined with increasing UV-B with 100% mortality occurring after four daily 5 hr exposures to a UV-B irradiance that was 14% of ambient sunlight (40.8/μW/cm 2 ) and 70% mortality for C. dubia after seven days of an exposure to 5% of ambient (14.5μW/cm 2 ). Significant reductions in fertility (#young/adult) was observed in both low and high light adapted individuals with low light individuals appearing to be more sensitive. This methodology allowed us to make comparisons to natural conditions in aquatic habitats and to make risk assessments for individual species.

ASTM Special Technical Publication↗

Environmental toxicology and risk assessment: Seventh volume

This publication, Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Seventh Volume, contains papers presented at the Seventh Symposium on Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Ultraviolet Radiation and the Environment, held 7-9 April, 1997 in St. Louis, MO. The symposium, the 24th in a series on environmental toxicology, was sponsored by Committee E-47. Edward E. Little, of the U.S. Geological Survey/Biological Services Division in Columbia, MO, presided as chairman of the symposium. Bruce M. Greenberg, with the Department of Biology at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, and Aaron J. DeLonay, also with the U.S. Geological Service/Biological Services Division in Columbia, MO, served as co-chairmen of the symposium. Each of these men served as editor of the resulting publication.

ASTM Special Technical Publication↗

Environmental contaminant studies by the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Evaluation of the effects of environmental contaminants on wildlife is geared to interpreting events in the field, especially population effects, and both field and laboratory studies are planned for this purpose; procedures are adapted to specific problems and therefore do not include strict protocols or routine testing. Field evaluations include measurements of cholinesterase inhibition in brain or blood, search for dead or disabled animals, study of nesting success of birds, and general ecological observations. Residue analyses are used in evaluating organochlorine chemicals; samples may include whole bodies for determining level of exposure, brains for mortality diagnosis, whole blood for certain special studies, and eggs to help in evaluation of possible reproductive effects. Bird counts, singing-male census counts, small mammal trapping, and cage-in-field tests have proven to be ineffective or misleading and are not considered suitable for field evaluations under most circumstances. Usefulness of simulated field trials is limited to very special situations. Experimental studies that help predict and interpret field effects include determinations of lethal diagnostic levels, comparative lethal dietary toxicity tests, tests of secondary poisoning, measurement of residue loss rates, measurement of blood enzymes, tests of behavioral effects, and studies of reproductive effects.

Maryland↗

Validation of the SCEC broadband platform V14.3 simulation methods using pseudo spectral acceleration data

This paper summarizes the evaluation of ground motion simulation methods implemented on the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP), version 14.3 (as of March 2014). A seven-member panel, the authorship of this article, was formed to evaluate those methods for the prediction of pseudo-­‐spectral accelerations (PSAs) of ground motion. The panel’s mandate was to evaluate the methods using tools developed through the validation exercise (Goulet et al. ,2014), and to define validation metrics for the assessment of the methods’ performance. This paper summarizes the evaluation process and conclusions from the panel. The five broadband, finite-source simulation methods on the BBP include two deterministic approaches herein referred to as CSM (Anderson, 2014) and UCSB (Crempien and Archuleta, 2014); a band-­‐limited stochastic white noise method called EXSIM (Atkinson and Assatourians, 2014); and two hybrid approaches, referred to as G&P (Graves and Pitarka, 2014) and SDSU (Olsen and Takedatsu, 2014), which utilize a deterministic Green’s function approach for periods longer than 1 second and stochastic methods for periods shorter than 1 second. Two acceptance tests were defined to validate the broadband finite‐source ground methods (Goulet et al., 2014). Part A compared observed and simulated PSAs for periods from 0.01 to 10 seconds for 12 moderate to large earthquakes located in California, Japan, and the eastern US. Part B compared the median simulated PSAs to published NGA-­‐West1 (Abrahamson and Silva, 2008; Boore and Atkinson, 2008; Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2008; and Chiou and Youngs, 2008) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for specific magnitude and distance cases using a pass-­‐fail criteria based on a defined acceptable range around the spectral shape of the GMPEs. For the initial Part A and Part B validation exercises during the summer of 2013, the software for the five methods was locked in at version 13.6 (see Maechling et al., 2014). In the spring of 2014, additional moderate events were considered for the Part A validation, and additional magnitude and distance cases were considered for the Part B validation, for the software locked in at version 14.3. Several of the simulation procedures, specifically UCSB and SDSU, changed significantly between versions 13.6 and 14.3. The CSM code was not submitted in time for the v14.3 evaluation and its detailed performance is not addressed in this paper. As described in Goulet et al. (2014) and Maechling et al. (2014), the BBP generates a variety of products, including three-­‐component acceleration time series. A series of post-­‐processing codes were developed to provide individual component PSAs and average median horizontal-­‐component PSA (referred to as RotD50; Boore, 2010) for oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 seconds, as well as median PSA values computed using the NGA-­‐West 1 GMPEs. The BBP was also configured to provide statistical analysis of simulation results relative to recordings (Part A) and GMPEs (Part B) as described further in sections below. As part of our evaluation, we reviewed documentation provided by each of the developers, which included the technical basis behind the methods and the developer’s self-­‐assessments regarding the extrapolation capabilities (in terms of magnitude and distance ranges) of their methods. Two workshops were held in which methods and results were presented, and the panel was given the opportunity to question the developers and to have detailed technical discussions. A SCEC report (Dreger et al., 2013) describes the results of this review for BBP version 13.6. This paper summarizes that work and presents results for the more recent BBP 14.3 validation.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Identifying overwintering habitat of silver and bighead carp in the lower Mississippi River: Implications for harvesting and population reduction

A total of 41 sites along a 58 mi reach of the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) were surveyed during winter 2022 for invasive carp aggregation.* Sites consisting of scallops closest to the dike-vegetated bank interface with deeper, slow-moving water and consistent access back to the main channel were preferred. Carp avoided strong currents, and there was no trend in depth selection other than avoiding shallow (less than 20 ft) water. In January 2023, recreation-grade sonar (e.g., side-scan and down-imaging) surveys were conducted in the same reach of the LMR to demonstrate the technology and evaluate carp population size at sites with high abundances based on previous surveys. Fish density was estimated to be 32 fish/10,000 yd 3 (95% confidence interval [CI; 31–34]) using down-imaging software, which is the first estimate of assumed bigheaded carp density in the LMR. Additional fish collections are needed to confirm species composition and size abundance provided by sonar technology. Resurveying sites with high carp abundance over a range of river stages would be necessary to fully characterize habitat conditions, evaluate influence of river stage on occupancy duration, and continue to evaluate species composition and mass removal techniques as a management option in the Lower Mississippi River.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

Update to a management-focused population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales

We provide an update to the recently published population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ). The update includes improvements to the reproduction modeling and also shares additional context given evidence of reduced mortality indicated by recent population monitoring. Projections from the analysis are used to quantify simulated population sizes across 100 years and resulting quasi-extinction probabilities (falling below 50 mature females that have proven ability to reproduce) to compare hypothetical scenarios related to management of threats and changing environmental conditions. Under a status quo scenario reflecting conditions of 2019, prior to the enactment of new regulations by the U.S. and Canada, the North Atlantic right whale population would be expected to continue to fall, with a median decline of 88 percent (95% projection interval, –98 percent to –45 percent change) and a probability of falling below 50 proven females (i.e., quasi-extinction) of 0.988 at 100 years. In hypothetical scenarios that fully remove each of the three primary threats to right whales one at a time, removal of the entanglement threat alone reduces the probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years to 0.070; removal of the vessel strike threat alone reduces it to 0.522; and a return to historical prey abundance patterns (pre-2010), but with both human-related threats still in place, reduces it to 0.524. Although additional baseline scenarios were explored to examine the potential effects of recent regulations, we found that the most up-to-date mortality rates (2020–2022) are similar to those simulated under a 70% reduction in severe entanglement injury compared to rates estimated during 2013–2019. If management measures implemented in the U.S. and Canada continue to reduce mortality, the estimated probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years is 0.234. Our model continues to provide a tool for assessing North Atlantic right whale recovery.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

Great Lakes spatial priorities study

Spatial data about the bathymetry, habitat characteristics, underlying geology, and other features of the ocean and inland seas are essential for decision-making. Marine research and management organizations use these data to help ensure safe navigation, promote sustainable fisheries, extract energy, and protect marine habitats in the coastal and ocean waters of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Laurentian Great Lakes. Many of these organizations may have overlapping or shared mapping interests without knowing it. In a multi-jurisdictional planning environment, it can be challenging and cumbersome to determine where other entities have shared or overlapping mapping interests, especially across a transnational region such as the Great Lakes. State and provincial governments, federal governments, academia, tribes and First Nations, and other stakeholders from both the U.S. and Canada all have mapping interests across Great Lakes waters. Identifying and communicating target geographies for new data collection that are shared among multiple organizations can both help to avoid redundancy of new mapping efforts, and create opportunities for greater efficiency through collaboration. To address this issue, a spatial priorities study was conducted using a geospatial tool developed by the National Ocean Services National Centers for Coastal and Ocean Science (NCCOS). The tool provided an easy-to-use online interface in which programs can identify their priorities in a simple and straightforward way. This study asked representatives of Great Lakes management and science organizations to identify the areas for which they needed maps of lakebed features on a near-term, mid-term, and long-term timeframe, and why. Then, the responses were analyzed and overlaid to determine areas of shared mapping need and opportunity and to determine the types of map products needed. The analysis revealed high interest among multiple organizations in discrete geographies including the Minnesota and Wisconsin shoreline from Duluth to the eastern extent of the Bayfield Peninsula, Green Bay in Lake Michigan, and the southern coastlines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, the St. Marys River, and the northern Lake Superior coastal waters near Grand Portage, MN. Lower priority mapping interest were distributed widely across all lakes, but tended to be concentrated in nearshore areas (<30 m depth). The analysis also indicated that the top mapping justifications were Habitat/biota/natural area, Benthic exploration, Commercial and recreational fishing, and Scientific research. The top desired map product types were Elevation, Substrate/sub-bottom geologic characterization, and Habitat map/characterization, although participants on some lakes noted other less prevalent product types. Following from previously conducted NOAA and non-NOAA Federal spatial prioritization exercises, the results of this regional focus can help mapping organizations better understand how their priorities align with the needs of regional organizations, allow for more efficient coordination and funding, and enable partners to leverage assets and resources to fill their most pressing data and information gaps across Great Lakes waters. The U.S. Mapping Coordination Site hosts the results of this study and other spatial prioritization studies. Through this website, one can interact with the study results along with recent and planned mapping efforts. NOAA intends to update their spatial priorities on a three- to five-year basis. Future studies should strive to expand participation of federal agencies, state and local governments, federally-recognized tribes, academia, and private industry (among other stakeholders) to seek out ocean mapping partnerships in conjunction with the National Ocean Mapping, Exploration and Characterization (NOMEC) goals map once, use many times.”

Great Lakes↗

Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP): Inventory of existing water quality and habitat monitoring, and mapping metadata for Gulf of Mexico Programs

Under the Council-Selected Restoration Component of the RESTORE Act, the Council develops Funded Priority Lists (FPLs) that describe the projects and programs it will fund. Projects and programs funded through this component must be in furtherance of the goals and objectives of the Council’s Comprehensive Plan and address at least one of the restoration criteria identified in the RESTORE Act. The Initial FPL, finalized in December of 2015, had a strong focus on watershed and estuary restoration and foundational cross-Gulf projects. Approved as a Gulf-wide investment in the 2015 Initial FPL, The Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP) is administered jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Funded activities include the development of basic, foundational components for Gulf-wide monitoring to measure beneficial impacts of investments in Gulf restoration by the Council. The program, in coordination with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and through collaboration with the Gulf States, Federal and local partners, academia, non-governmental organizations, and business and industry, has leveraged existing resources, capacities, and expertise and build on existing monitoring data and programs.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

A characterization of deep-sea coral and sponge communities along the California and Oregon coast using a remotely operated vehicle on the EXPRESS 2018 expedition

Deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) communities serve as essential fish habitats (EFH) by providing shelter and nursery habitat, increasing diversity, and increasing prey availability (Freese and Wing, 2003; Bright, 2007; Baillon et al., 2012; Henderson et al., 2020). Threats to these long-lived, fragile organisms from bottom contact fishing gear, potential offshore renewable energy development, and ocean warming and acidification have increased the need for DSCS research along the U.S. West Coast (Gomez et al., 2018; Salgado et al., 2018; Yoklavich, et al., 2018; Gugliotti et al., 2019). The focus of these studies has varied from species distribution and abundance (Yoklavich and Love, 2005; Tissot et al., 2006) to developing and validating predictive distribution models (Huff et al., 2013; Rooper et al., 2017; Kreidler, 2020) to finding medicinal uses for corals and sponges (Essack et al., 2011; Shrestha et al., 2018). Due to the vast area of unexplored seafloor within the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ; 200 nautical miles off the coast) and the technological requirements and expanse of deep-sea research, there is still much to learn about the distributions and biology of DSCS. This information is critical to resource managers for effective conservation and management of DSCS habitats. Protections are provided by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) designation of groundfish EFH conservation areas (EFHCA) and the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA). Areas designated as EFHCA are closed to bottom trawl fishing to protect and preserve seafloor habitats. Recently the PFMC adopted Amendment 28 to the Groundfish Fishery Management Plan (GFMP; Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2019) which modified EFHCAs by closing new areas identified as vulnerable and reopening areas deemed not vulnerable. The NMSA prohibits bottom disturbance from certain activities within areas designated as national marine sanctuaries, such as oil and gas exploration or extraction, cable laying, and other forms of seabed alteration or construction that disturb benthic communities. NOAA’s Deep-Sea Coral and Research Technology Program (DSCRTP) began a 4-yr funding initiative for the U.S. West Coast in 2017. The goals of the West Coast Deep-Sea Coral Initiative (WCDSCI) were to: 1) gather baseline information on areas subject to fishing regulation changes prior to the implementation of Amendment 28; 2) improve our understanding of known DSCS bycatch “hot spots”; and 3) explore and assess DSCS resources within NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries with emphasis on areas of sanctuary resource protection and management concerns. During the first year of the program, a research cruise was developed to survey the West Coast from Oregon to California studying the DSCS ecosystems in priority areas. The 31-day expedition (9 Oct – 8 Nov, 2018) was launched from the NOAA Ship Bell M. Shimada, beginning in Newport, OR and ending in San Diego, CA. The science team assembled for this cruise were members of the EXpanding Pacific Research and Exploration of Submerged Systems (EXPRESS) campaign, which brings together researchers from federal and nonfederal institutions to collaborate on scientific expeditions targeting the deepwater areas off California, Oregon, and Washington. EXPRESS supports researchers leveraging funding, resources, personnel, and expertise to accomplish more science than would have been possible by a single entity alone. The 2018 coastwide expedition included research partners from National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), National Ocean Service (Channel Islands, Cordell Bank, Greater Farallones, and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuaries), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). Research objectives for the cruise were to: 1) Collect DSCS baseline information at 10 of the EFHCA sites undergoing protection modifications by the Pacific Fishery Management Council. 2) Collect DSCS and fish data at previously unexplored sites within West Coast National Marine Sanctuaries. 3) Revisit a subset of previously surveyed sites to document if changes in DCSC have occurred over time. 4) Collect information to validate BOEM supported cross-shelf habitat suitability models for DSCS. 5) Collect samples to help in identifying (and understanding) West Coast DSCS and expand use of new technologies (ROV, AUV, and environmental DNA [eDNA]). 6) Collect water samples for coastwide eDNA, nutrient, and carbon chemistry studies.

California, Oregon↗

Digital processing of array seismic recordings

This technical letter contains a brief review of the operations which are involved in digital processing of array seismic recordings by the methods of velocity filtering, summation, cross-multiplication and integration, and by combinations of these operations (the "UK Method" and multiple correlation). Examples are presented of analyses by the several techniques on array recordings which were obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey during chemical and nuclear explosions in the western United States. Seismograms are synthesized using actual noise and P n -signal recordings, such that the signal-to-noise ratio, onset time and velocity of the signal are predetermined for the synthetic record. These records are then analyzed by summation, cross-multiplication, multiple correlation and the UK technique, and the results are compared. For all of the examples presented, analysis by the non-linear techniques of multiple correlation and cross-multiplication of the traces on an array recording are preferred to analyses by the linear operations involved in summation and the UK Method.

Crustal Studies Technical Letter↗