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Conservation paleobiology: Leveraging knowledge of the past to inform conservation and restoration

Humans now play a major role in altering Earth and its biota. Finding ways to ameliorate human impacts on biodiversity and to sustain and restore the ecosystem services on which we depend is a grand scientific and societal challenge. Conservation paleobiology is an emerging discipline that uses geohistorical data to meet these challenges by developing and testing models of how biota respond to environmental stressors. Here we ( a ) describe how the discipline has already provided insights about biotic responses to key environmental stressors, ( b ) outline research aimed at disentangling the effects of multiple stressors, ( c ) provide examples of deliverables for managers and policy makers, and ( d ) identify methodological advances in geohistorical analysis that will foster the next major breakthroughs in conservation outcomes. We highlight cases for which exclusive reliance on observations of living biota may lead researchers to erroneous conclusions about the nature and magnitude of biotic change, vulnerability, and resilience.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

This week?s Citation Classic: 'Stickel, L. F. A comparison of certain methods of measuring ranges of small mammals. J. Mammalogy 35: 1-15, 1954.'

During my first employment as a junior biologist conducting food habits analyses at the Patuxent Research Refuge (now Patuxent Wildlife Research Center) of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the first station director, Arnold L. Nelson, gave each staff biologist the opportunity to spend a little time conducting field studies on the 2,600-acre research area. These studies were to help in ecological evaluation of the area, but also, no doubt, functioned as a morale builder for biologists daily engaged in difficult, demanding and confining laboratory work. I undertook to measure the population density of small mammals in different habitats. The state-of-the-art methods recommended to me and prevalent in the literature worried me, especially after preliminary field work. Reading the classic, paper by W.H. Burt [Terrioriality and home range concepts as applied to mammals. J. Mammalogy 24:346-352, 1943] was a turning point for me in seeing that knowledge of home-range size was the key to measuring population density. My first papers employed these concepts in field evaluations. However, they could give-only limited attention to the question of how home ranges could be measured. Furthermore, the importance of knowledge of the home range to habitat evaluation and to understanding animal behavior was becoming increasingly apparent. Advocacy of many different methods of measuring home ranges appeared in the literature. It did not seem possible to evaluate them objectively. It occurred to me that artificial populations could be used to help in understanding the mechanisms of measuring home ranges. The effects of random trap-visiting, bias toward central traps, trap-spacing, range shape, and other factors could be considered. So grids of traps were inked onto oversize graph paper, and simulated ranges were cut from plastic to be tossed as randomly as possible on the trap-grids. It was a slow, laborious job. Analysis showed that random captures in artificial populations produced patterns that were similar in many ways to those observed in field studies; the necessity of appropriate trap-spacing in relation to range size became obvious. Some commonly used methods of expressing range size proved to be clearly superior to others. However, the artificial populations could not fully simulate actual populations, where use patterns changed as conditions changed and the ?boundaries? of ranges tended to shift continuously or with time. Progress was made, but problems remained. I suspect that the reasons the paper has been cited frequently rest on the continuing interest in home-range behavior and the continuing difficulty in field evaluations, despite the many advances in observational methodology. The sophisticated techniques that became possible with the use of computers [R.I. Jennrich and F.B. Turner. Measurement of non-circular home range. J. Theor. Biol 23:227-237, 1969] also presented new possibilities for analysis and understanding of home-range characteristics and created a resurgence of interest in home-range behavior and its biological significance.

Current Contents / Agriculture, Biology & Environm↗

Debating complexity in modeling

Complexity in modeling would seem to be an issue of universal importance throughout the geosciences, perhaps throughout all science, if the debate last year among groundwater modelers is any indication. During the discussion the following questions and observations made up the heart of the debate. As scientists trying to understand the natural world, how should our effort be apportioned? We know that the natural world is characterized by complex and interrelated processes. Yet do we need to explicitly incorporate these intricacies to perform the tasks we are charged with? In this era of expanding computer power and development of sophisticated preprocessors and postprocessors, are bigger machines making better models? Put another way, do we understand the natural world better now with all these advancements in our simulation ability? Today the public's patience for long-term projects producing indeterminate results is wearing thin. This increases pressure on the investigator to use the appropriate technology efficiently. On the other hand, bringing scientific results into the legal arena opens up a new dimension to the issue: to the layperson, a tool that includes more of the complexity known to exist in the real world is expected to provide the more scientifically valid answer.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Fission-track dating of the tectonic development of the San Juan Islands, Washington

The San Juan Islands of Washington State form a geologically complex province located between the north Cascades, Vancouver Island, and the Olympic Peninsula. We have obtained 53 fission-track dates from the San Juan Islands province that help constrain its late Paleozoic to early Cenozoic tectonic and sedimentary history and its relationship to neighboring geologic terranes. The San Juan Islands can be divided into two main blocks separated by the Haro fault. South of the Haro fault, complexly deformed, metamorphosed, and probably exotic early Paleozoic to early Late Cretaceous rocks form four imbricate thrust plates separated by south- and east-dipping late Early to Late Cretaceous thrust faults. Reset zircon fission-track dates indicate that thrusting may have produced an upside-down geothermal gradient in the uppermost plate, the Decatur terrane. If present, this gradient was probably produced by conductive or frictional heating associated with a now-eroded overlying thrust fault and hot thrust plate. Cretaceous thrusting in the southern San Juan Islands was accompanied by uplift and resetting of apatite fission-track dates. In contrast to correlative rocks of the southern San Juan Islands, Upper Triassic to Lower Cretaceous rocks in and north of the Haro fault zone are essentially unmetamorphosed and only broadly folded. Apatite dates from the Upper Triassic Haro Formation and the Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous Spieden Group indicate they did not participate in Late Cretaceous uplift of the southern San Juan Islands. Together with their basement (the Wrangellia terrane?), these rocks probably acted as a backstop to thrusting. The synorogenic Late Cretaceous Nanaimo basin formed north of the Haro fault in front of the advancing San Juan Islands thrust system. The age of Nanaimo deposition matches uplift (apatite) dates in the southern San Juan Islands, and detrital zircons from the Nanaimo Group yield dates consistent with southern San Juan Islands sources. Burial led to resetting of apatite dates in what is probably the deeper part of the Nanaimo basin.

Washington↗

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, allowing for greater oil and gas production from previously unrecoverable reservoirs. Quantification of the water resources required for UOG development and production is difficult because of disparate data sources, variable reporting requirements across boundaries (local, State, and national), and incomplete or proprietary datasets. A topical study was started in 2015 under the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water Availability and Use Science Program, as part of the directive in the Secure Water Act for the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a National Water Census, to better understand the relation between production of UOG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The Water Availability and Use Science Program goal for this topical study is to develop and apply a statistical model to better estimate the water use associated with UOG development, regardless of the location and target geologic formation. As a first step, a conceptual model has been developed to characterize the life cycle of water use in areas of UOG development. Categories of water use and the way water-use data are collected might change over time; therefore, a generic approach was used in developing the conceptual model to allow for greater flexibility in adapting to future changes or newly available data. UOG development can be summarized into four stages: predrilling construction, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and ongoing production. The water used in UOG production can be categorized further as direct, indirect, or ancillary water use. Direct water use is defined as the water used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing a well and for maintaining the well during ongoing production. Indirect water use is defined as the water used at or near a well pad. The water used for dust abatement also is considered an indirect use but may be applied away from the well pad. Ancillary water use is defined as the additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) directly related to UOG development throughout the life cycle that is not used directly in the well or indirectly for any other purpose at the well pad. The conceptual model presented in this report consists of five elements: (1) input data, (2) processes, (3) decisions, (4) output data, and (5) outcomes. The input data requirements for estimating water use associated with UOG development are somewhat onerous, and obtaining suitable datasets can be challenging because local, State, and Federal agencies do not collect data similarly. The quality of a water-use assessment that uses the conceptual model presented in this report is dependent on the quality and quantity of data that are available for a UOG play. The conceptual model can be used for an assessment with sparse data; however, having sparse data likely will result in greater uncertainty in the water-use estimates. The conceptual model presented in this report is designed to be robust to characterize and simulate the data processing to estimate water use associated with UOG development. Although the results of an analysis that includes missing data have greater uncertainty, the analysis still can be insightful because it can establish a baseline estimate of UOG water use that may be refined further as more data become available. Analysis of models that include missing data also could aid in identifying the data most needed for future water-use estimates. Characterizing individual model limitations is important because the conceptual model can be used in future water-use studies to facilitate data compiling, data processing, estimating, and assessing UOG activities regardless of location.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Climatic and hydrologic oscillations in the Owens Lake basin and adjacent Sierra Nevada, California

Oxygen isotope and total inorganic carbon values of cored sediments from the Owens Lake basin, California, indicate that Owens Lake overflowed most of the time between 52,500 and 12,509 carbon-14 (14C) years before present (B.P.). Owens Lake desiccated during or after Heinrich event H1 and was hydrologically closed during Heinrich event H2. The magnetic susceptibility and organic carbon content of cored sediments indicate that about 19 Sierra Nevada glaciations occurred between 52,500 and 23,500 14C years B.P. Most of the glacial advances were accompanied by decreases in the amount of discharge reaching Owens Lake. Comparison of the timing of glaciation with the lithic record of North Atlantic core V23-81 indicates that the number of mountain glacial cycles and the number of North Atlantic lithic events were about equal between 39,000 and 23,500 14C years B.P.

Science↗

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed

The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smoothed seismicity models to forecast earthquake rates; (3) two suites of new central and eastern US (CEUS) ground motion models (GMMs) to translate ground shaking for various earthquake sizes and source-to-site distances considered in the model; (4) two CEUS GMMs for aleatory variability; (5) two CEUS site-effect models that modify ground shaking based on alternative shallow site conditions; (6) more advanced western US (WUS) lithologic and structural information to assess basin site effects for selected urban regions; and (7) a more comprehensive range of outputs (22 periods and 8 site classes) than in previous versions of the NSHMs. Each of these new datasets and models produces changes in the probabilistic ground shaking levels that are spatially and statistically analyzed. Recent earthquakes or changes to some older earthquake magnitudes and locations mostly result in probabilistic ground shaking levels that are similar to previous models, but local changes can reach up to +80% and −60% compared to the 2014 model. Newly developed CEUS models for GMMs, aleatory variability, and site effects cause overall changes up to ±64%. The addition of the WUS basin amplifications causes changes of up to +60% at longer periods for sites overlying deep soft soils. Across the conterminous United States, the hazard changes in the model are mainly caused by new GMMs in the CEUS, by sedimentary basin effects for long periods (≥1 s) in the WUS, and by seismicity changes for short (0.2 s) and long (1 s) periods for both areas.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Interactions between groundwater and surface water: The state of the science

The interactions between groundwater and surface water are complex. To understand these interactions in relation to climate, landform, geology, and biotic factors, a sound hydrogeoecological framework is needed. All these aspects are synthesized and exemplified in this overview. In addition, the mechanisms of interactions between groundwater and surface water (GW-SW) as they affect recharge-discharge processes are comprehensively outlined, and the ecological significance and the human impacts of such interactions are emphasized. Surface-water and groundwater ecosystems are viewed as linked components of a hydrologic continuum leading to related sustainability issues. This overview concludes with a discussion of research needs and challenges facting this evolving field. The biogeochemical processes within the upper few centimeters of sediments beneath nearly all surface-water bodies (hyporheic zone) have a profound effect on the chemistry of the water interchange, and here is where most of the recent research has been focusing. However, to advance conceptual and other modeling of GW-SW systems, a broader perspective of such interactions across and between surface-water bodies is needed, including multidimensional analyses, interface hydraulic characterization and spatial variability, site-to-region regionalization approaches, as well as cross-disciplinary collaborations.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Machine learning for understanding inland water quantity, quality, and ecology

This chapter provides an overview of machine learning models and their applications to the science of inland waters. Such models serve a wide range of purposes for science and management: predicting water quality, quantity, or ecological dynamics across space, time, or hypothetical scenarios; vetting and distilling raw data for further modeling or analysis; generating and exploring hypotheses; estimating physically or biologically meaningful parameters for use in further modeling; and revealing patterns in complex, multidimensional data or model outputs. An important research frontier is the injection of limnological knowledge into machine-learning models, which has shown great promise for increasing such models’ accuracy, trustworthiness, and interpretability. Here we describe a few of the most powerful machine learning tools, describe best practices for employing these tools and injecting knowledge guidance, and give examples of their applications to advance understanding of inland waters.

Book chapter↗

The ecology and evolution of synchronized reproduction in long-lived plants

Populations of many long-lived plants exhibit spatially synchronized seed production that varies extensively over time, so that seed production in some years is much higher than on average, while in others, it is much lower or absent. This phenomenon termed masting or mast seeding has important consequences for plant reproductive success, ecosystem dynamics and plant–human interactions. Inspired by recent advances in the field, this special issue presents a series of articles that advance the current understanding of the ecology and evolution of masting. To provide a broad overview, we reflect on the state-of-the-art of masting research in terms of underlying proximate mechanisms, ontogeny, adaptations, phylogeny and applications to conservation. While the mechanistic drivers and fitness consequences of masting have received most attention, the evolutionary history, ontogenetic trajectory and applications to plant–human interactions are poorly understood. With increased availability of long-term datasets across broader geographical and taxonomic scales, as well as advances in molecular approaches, we expect that many mysteries of masting will be solved soon. The increased understanding of this global phenomenon will provide the foundation for predictive modelling of seed crops, which will improve our ability to manage forests and agricultural fruit and nut crops in the Anthropocene.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

The tangled tale of Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption as told by geochemical monitoring

Changes in magma chemistry that affect eruptive behavior occur during many volcanic eruptions, but typical analytical techniques are too slow to contribute to hazard monitoring. We used rapid energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to measure diagnostic elements in lava samples within a few hours of collection during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. The geochemical data provided important information for field crews and civil authorities in advance of changing hazards during the eruption. The appearance of hotter magma was recognized several days before the onset of voluminous eruptions of fast-moving flows that destroyed hundreds of homes. We identified, in near-real time, interactions between older, colder, stored magma – including the unexpected eruption of andesite – and hotter magma delivered during dike emplacement.

Hawaii↗

Summary of the history and research of the U.S. Geological Survey gas hydrate properties laboratory in Menlo Park, California, active from 1993 to 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Clathrate Hydrate Properties Project, active from 1993 to 2022 in Menlo Park, California, stemmed from an earlier project on the properties of planetary ices supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program. We took a material science approach in both projects, emphasizing chemical purity of samples, having controlled grain size and grain texture, and having verified crystal structures and phase relations. A foundational contribution from our USGS Gas Hydrate Properties Laboratory (GHPL) was in demonstrating the ability to reproducibly create such pure clathrate hydrate samples for study. Clathrate sample synthesis was achieved by heating sieved and weighed pure granular water ice in the presence of cold clathrate-forming gas or liquid. During heating, the ice melts at the grain scale and reacts with the gas to form clathrate. The resulting material has the desired uniformity and purity, with known intergranular porosity; our subsequent measurements showed that these clathrates exhibited the established clathrate structures and phase relations. This novel synthesis method was successful in creating clathrates of pure methane, ethane, propane, carbon dioxide, and multi-component gases. By mixing sand or silt with granular ice, we were also able to make clathrate-sediment aggregates with controlled grain textures. This simple method, adopted by many others in the community, permitted us to measure the physical and chemical properties of well-characterized and well-crystallized clathrates and clathrate/sediment aggregates. At about the same time, we adapted conventional scanning electron microscopy to cryogenic conditions for analysis of grain-scale characteristics of clathrates made in the GHPL as well as those collected from nature by drill core. The uniformity and reproducibility of our samples also allowed us to investigate how clathrates respond to environmental changes in chemistry, temperature, and pressure: we measured chemical exchange rates with dissolved gas species—such as noble gases and chlorofluorocarbons—as well as rates of clathrate dissolution and decomposition. These advances include the first accurate mapping of the conditions that promote the remarkable process of “anomalous preservation” at room pressure, a metastability that offers potential application for low-cost and safe transportation of natural gas from gas fields far from pipelines. Another advancement stemming from the GHPL was the compaction of as-synthesized porous clathrates to nearly full density by applying external pressure using three different techniques. Compaction allows for high-accuracy measurements of many fundamental physical and chemical properties of these materials, such as elastic wavespeeds and moduli, complete thermal properties, decomposition rates, thermal expansion, and clathrate equations of state. These properties and others, in turn, have helped USGS scientists to interpret geophysical well logs and active geophysical surveys, as well as model the rates of gas production from hydrate deposits in nature. Studying this class of icy minerals that occur in abundance on Earth and in the outer solar system has been a fascinating laboratory journey. Here, we summarize the history and major findings of the USGS GHPL in Menlo Park, including both in-house research as well as findings from the synergistic collaborations with other agencies and institutes that were key to the success of our laboratory. The Menlo Park GHPL was more formally incorporated within the USGS Gas Hydrates Project, a collaboration among multiple USGS Science Centers, in the early 2000s under the leadership of Deborah Hutchinson, and now under the leadership of Carolyn Ruppel and Timothy Collett.

Open-File Report↗

Predicting Lake Huron Dreissena spp. spatial distribution patterns from environmental characteristics

Invasive dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) have altered Great Lakes ecosystems through a multitude of effects on benthic habitats, food web structure, and nutrient cycling. This study explores whether spatially continuous geographic data of environmental factors can be utilized to predict Dreissena spp. spatial distributions on a lake-wide scale. Categorical variables were also assessed for significant relationships with Dreissena spp. biomass. Point observations from the 2017 Lake Huron benthic survey under the Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) were utilized for in situ measurements of dreissenid presence and biomass at 119 sites across Lake Huron. Basin, bathymetric zone, and tributary influence were found to have statistically significant relationships to dreissenid biomass. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model (ROC score 0.707) was developed to spatially predict dreissenid presence probability across Lake Huron from six environmental explanatory variables: April, May, and October chlorophyll, June dissolved organic carbon, January bottom temperature, and May bottom temperature. The importance of food availability and bottom temperature illuminated relationships between dreissenid mussels and periods of benthic-pelagic mixing in the spring and fall seasons. Future models could be improved through advancements in survey technology for improved geographic characterization of mussel habitat characteristics and environmental constraints.

Lake Huron↗

Acidification in the U.S. Southeast: Causes, potential consequences and the role of the Southeast Ocean and Coastal Acidification Network

Coastal acidification in southeastern U.S. estuaries and coastal waters is influenced by biological activity, run-off from the land, and increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Acidification can negatively impact coastal resources such as shellfish, finfish, and coral reefs, and the communities that rely on them. Organismal responses for species located in the U.S. Southeast document large negative impacts of acidification, especially in larval stages. For example, the toxicity of pesticides increases under acidified conditions and the combination of acidification and low oxygen has profoundly negative influences on genes regulating oxygen consumption. In corals, the rate of calcification decreases with acidification and processes such as wound recovery, reproduction, and recruitment are negatively impacted. Minimizing the changes in global ocean chemistry will ultimately depend on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, but adaptation to these changes and mitigation of the local stressors that exacerbate global acidification can be addressed locally. The evolution of our knowledge of acidification, from basic understanding of the problem to the emergence of applied research and monitoring, has been facilitated by the development of regional Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs) across the United States. This synthesis is a product of the Southeast Coastal and Ocean Acidification Network (SOCAN). SOCAN was established to better understand acidification in the coastal waters of the U.S. Southeast and to foster communication among scientists, resource managers, businesses, and governments in the region. Here we review acidification issues in the U.S. Southeast, including the regional mechanisms of acidification and their potential impacts on biological resources and coastal communities. We recommend research and monitoring priorities and discuss the role SOCAN has in advancing acidification research and mitigation of and adaptation to these changes.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

Airborne remote sensing for geology and the environment; present and future

In 1988, a group of leading experts from government, academia, and industry attended a workshop on airborne remote sensing sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and hosted by the Branch of Geophysics. The purpose of the workshop was to examine the scientific rationale for airborne remote sensing in support of government earth science in the next decade. This report has arranged the six resulting working-group reports under two main headings: (1) Geologic Remote Sensing, for the reports on geologic mapping, mineral resources, and fossil fuels and geothermal resources; and (2) Environmental Remote Sensing, for the reports on environmental geology, geologic hazards, and water resources. The intent of the workshop was to provide an evaluation of demonstrated capabilities, their direct extensions, and possible future applications, and this was the organizational format used for the geologic remote sensing reports. The working groups in environmental remote sensing chose to present their reports in a somewhat modified version of this format. A final section examines future advances and limitations in the field. There is a large, complex, and often bewildering array of remote sensing data available. Early remote sensing studies were based on data collected from airborne platforms. Much of that technology was later extended to satellites. The original 80-m-resolution Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) has now been largely superseded by the 30-m-resolution Thematic Mapper (TM) system that has additional spectral channels. The French satellite SPOT provides higher spatial resolution for channels equivalent to MSS. Low-resolution (1 km) data are available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's AVHRR system, which acquires reflectance and day and night thermal data daily. Several experimental satellites have acquired limited data, and there are extensive plans for future satellites including those of Japan (JERS), Europe (ESA), Canada (Radarsat), and the United States (EOS). There are currently two national airborne remote sensing programs (photography, radar) with data archived at the USGS' EROS Data Center. Airborne broadband multispectral data (comparable to Landsat MSS and TM but involving several more channels) for limited geographic areas also are available for digital processing and analysis. Narrow-band imaging spectrometer data are available for some NASA experiment sites and can be acquired for other locations commercially. Remote sensing data and derivative images, because of the uniform spatial coverage, availability at different resolutions, and digital format, are becoming important data sets for geographic information system (GIS) analyses. Examples range from overlaying digitized geologic maps on remote sensing images and draping these over topography, to maps of mineral distribution and inferred abundance. A large variety of remote sensing data sets are available, with costs ranging from a few dollars per square mile for satellite digital data to a few hundred dollars per square mile for airborne imaging spectrometry. Computer processing and analysis costs routinely surpass these expenses because of the equipment and expertise necessary for information extraction and interpretation. Effective use requires both an understanding of the current methodology and an appreciation of the most cost-effective solution.

Bulletin↗

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Science↗

Strengthening links between waterfowl research and management

Waterfowl monitoring, research, regulation, and adaptive planning are leading the way in supporting science-informed wildlife management. However, increasing societal demands on natural resources have created a greater need for adaptable and successful linkages between waterfowl science and management. We presented a special session at the 2016 North American Duck Symposium, Annapolis, Maryland, USA on the successes and challenges of linking research and management in waterfowl conservation, and we summarize those thoughts in this commentary. North American waterfowl management includes a diversity of actions including management of harvest and habitat. Decisions for waterfowl management are structured using decision analysis by incorporating stakeholder values into formal objectives, identifying research relevant to objectives, integrating scientific knowledge, and choosing an optimal strategy with respect to objectives. Recently, the consideration of the value of information has been proposed as a means to evaluate the utility of research designed to meet objectives. Despite these advances, the ability to conduct waterfowl research with direct management application may be increasingly difficult in research institutions for several reasons including reduced funding for applied research and the lower perceived value of applied versus theoretical research by some university academics. In addition, coordination between researchers and managers may be logistically constrained, and communication may be ineffective between the 2 groups. Strengthening these links would help develop stronger and more coordinated approaches for the conservation of waterfowl and the wetlands upon which they depend.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗