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Hemoglobin A1c is a retrospective indicator of denning in polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

The nutritional health of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) is tied to reproductive success, and fasting status can be used to infer recent reproductive history. However, the methods currently used to determine denning and fasting status have their limitations. We examined hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), an integrative metric of average blood glucose levels over recent months, in free-ranging Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears to assess its usefulness in determining reproductive status and fasting. We compared HbA1c between bears recently in maternity dens that included spring-captured females that were accompanied by cubs-of-the-year ( n = 38), and non-denned bears that included spring-captured females that were accompanied by 1- or 2-yr-old cubs ( n = 39). We predicted that HbA1c would be higher in denned females compared to non-denned females, due to the combined effects of increased circulating glucose associated with insulin resistance from fasting and gestation, as well as the energy mobilization required during early lactation. HbA1c was measured in Polar Bear whole blood samples using an enzymatic assay for quantifying HbA1c and expressed as the percentage of glycated hemoglobin over total hemoglobin. Denned females had higher mean HbA1c ( x̅ 4.70%, 95% CI = 4.54%, 4.86%) than non-denned ( ⁠ x̅ 4.38%, 95% CI = 4.23%, 4.53%, P = 0.005). We trained a binary logistic regression model to classify the probability of recent prior denning based on HbA1c and glucose, and the model classified denning with 75% accuracy. HbA1c can be used as an effective tool for determining denning history and could have implications for monitoring reproductive success.

Alsaka, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

Declines of greater and lesser scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issues of concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breeding-ground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser scaup separately; this includes monitoring the breeding populations of each species separately, closer examination of existing data to improve surveys and data collection, and re-evaluation of the NAWMP population goal. These complex issues will require extensive cooperation and communication among many agencies and organizations in North America.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Declining scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issuesof concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breedingground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser scaup separately; this includes monitoring the breeding populations of each species separately, closer examination of existing data to improve surveys and data collection, and re-evaluation of the NAWMP population goal. These complex issues will require extensive cooperation and communication among many agencies and organizations in North America.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Food resources of the California condor

Conclusions and Recommendations: Although much of the above information is imprecise and inconclusive, it is evident that the condors foraging habitat is diminishing. Food supply probably is still adequate for free-ranging nonbreeding birds, but could become limited if current land use trends continue. Congregating condors on fewer and fewer acres could be detrimental in other ways. It seems the needs of condors can best be met by maintaining a continuous band of :foraging country throughout the species' horseshoe-shaped range. Public needs for open space and livestock agriculture can also be served by land use zoning, cooperative agreements, easements or other land controls implemented with consideration :for the condors' welfare. Of immediate concern is the declining food situation in the general vicinity of the active condor nests in the Sespe-Piru region. Reproduction is definitely depressed, and the reduced local food supply is the only apparent cause. Predicted future developments can only worsen the situation. A concerted effort should be made immediately to slow the loss of food and foraging area closest to the Sespe Condor Sanctuary including: (1) the Big Mountain-Newhall Ranch regions of southern Ventura County; (2) the arc of grassland around the southern and eastern boundaries of the Sespe Sanctuary; and (3) the Tejon Ranch. Within these areas efforts should be made to increase the amount of condor food by: (1) increasing the amount of livestock, if compatible with proper land use; (2) modifying procedures for disposal of dead livestock, so that more are available to condors; (3) encouraging (subsidizing) ranchers to sacrifice livestock for condor food at certain times o:f the year; and (4) developing a state or Federal supplemental feeding program utilizing cattle, deer or other carrion regularly distributed at close, protected feeding sites. If a convenient food supply is as important to reproduction as it appears, those nest sites closest to the best food source may become most productive and significant in the preservation of this species. These sites, which are in the Piru Creek area, are outside the boundaries o:f the Sespe Condor Sanctuary, but are recognized by the U.S. Forest Service (1971) as extremely important to condor survival. Protective measures recommended in the Forest Service plan should be implemented as soon as possible to preserve this area's usefulness as condor nesting habitat. Food may not be the factor currently limiting condor reproduction. However, the reproductive rate is inadequate to sustain the condor population for long. As food shortage has been shown to limit breeding in many species (Lack 1954, 1966), and as it is something which can be manipulated, it is a logical factor for further study and experimentation.

Administrative Report.↗

Some effects of pollutants in terrestrial ecosystems

Summary: Pollutants tend to simplify plant and animal communities by causing a progressive loss of species. At the extreme, this leads to erosion and loss of soil fertility. Weedy, broadly adapted species increase. Among animals, carnivorous species and groups are often the first to suffer. This is partly because of their exposure at the top of the food chain, and partly, it appears, because of physiological differences. Species differences in susceptibility are abundant and are often critical. One result is that when one pest is controlled another is likely to flare up. Resistance appears commonly in insects and is known in other fast-breeding forms, including fishes, frogs, and rodents. Resistant individuals can carry toxicant loads that make them dangerous food for other animals. Some groups, including mollusks and annelids, are naturally resistant to many organohalogens and tend to accumulate them. Animals such as birds may carry lipophilic pollutants in large amounts with apparent safety until forced to draw upon their fat. They may then suffer delayed mortality, and no doubt suffer reproductive or behavioral effects at sublethal levels. Lipophilic pollutants in the brain rise when body lipids decrease and fall when body lipids increase. Mutagenesis can be caused by some common pollutants and the mutagenic properties of most chemicals are far too little known. Fortunately, common pesticides are not likely to be strong mutagens. Mutagenicity may be affecting certain long-lived and slow-breeding species in the wild, but most species have enough population turnover to swamp an occasional mutagenic event. Behavioral changes can be caused by relatively low levels of contaminants, but it is often hard to demonstrate them without using high dosages. Reproduction may or may not be affected adversely by low exposures. At certain exposures that are below the toxic levels of a chemical, a biostimulatory effect is to be expected. Food chain accumulations definitely do occur when persistent chemicals enter organisms that eliminate them poorly. However, loss of chemicals in the food chain must be more common than accumulation. The great concentration from water to aquatic organism is chiefly a physical phenomenon, not a food chain effect, but it affords high starting levels for these chains. Terrestrial food chains often start at a high level with heavily contaminated, struggling prey. Litter feeders are another important base. Vegetation may be contaminated enough to be dangerous to animals that eat it. Dermal and respiratory routes of intoxication occur in the wild, but the oral route is far more important at most times and places. The organisms that govern soil fertility and texture are affected more by cultivation than by pesticides. Above ground, growing knowledge of resistance, species differences, and biological controls is leading to integrated control, in which use of chemicals is limited and specific. We do not know what is happening to most nontarget invertebrates. Amphibians and reptiles may be killed by applications of insecticides, but are not highly sensitive and can carry large residues. Effects of these residues on reproduction are little known. Heavy kills of birds by pesticides still occur in the field. Fish-eating and bird-eating birds also undergo shell thinning and related reproductive troubles in many areas, sometimes to the point of population decline and local or regional extermination. DDE most often correlates with shell thinning in the wild and in experiments. No other known chemical approaches DDE in causing severe and lasting shell thinning. Herbivorous birds seem to be largely immune to this effect. It is uncertain how much dieldrin and PCBs contribute to embryotoxicity in carnivorous birds. Mammals may be killed by the more toxic pesticides, but some of the commonest small rodents are so resistant, and lose their residues so rapidly, that they are of little

Book chapter↗

Calcium, phosphorus and protein levels as factors in the distribution of the pheasant

Summary of work on pheasant nutrition conducted since 1949 at the Patuxent Research Refuge. Pheasant chicks fed experimental diets failed to develop normally on protein levels of 15 and 18%. With 22% protein they grew at a reduced rate as compared to those on 28%. Protein level of the reproductive diet was shown to be important; low production of eggs and young resulted from levels below 25%. Calcium was found to be even more critical than protein level for reproduction; birds on a winter diet that furnished 145 mg./kg. per day had poor reproductive success the following spring. About 600 mg./kg. of Ca per day was necessary in the reproduction diet. Birds on an intermediate level of Ca (about 0.5% of diet) showed evidence of cumulative deficiency. It was concluded that pheasants receiving levels of Ca no higher than 0.5% in nature might display 'straggling failure' such as has been observed in several midwestern areas.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife Confer↗

Energetic dose: Beyond fire and flint?

Nutritional and bioenergetic interactions influence exposure to environmental chemicals and may affect the risk realized when wildlife are exposed in the field. Here, food-chain analysis focuses on prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) and the evaluation of chemical risks associated with paraquat following 10-d dietary exposures. Reproductive effects were measured in 60-d trials that followed exposures to paraquat-tainted feed: control (untainted feed); 21 mg paraquat/kg feed; 63 mg paraquat/kg feed; and feed-restricted control (untainted feed restricted to 60% baseline consumption). Reproductive success was evaluated in control and treated breeding pairs, and a preliminary bioenergetics analysis was completed in parallel to derive exposure dose. Although reproductive performance differed among groups, feed-restriction appeared to be the dominant treatment effect observed in these 10-d feeding exposure/limited reproductive trials. Exposure dose ranged from 3.70-3.76 to 9.41-11.51 mg parquat/kg BW/day at 21 and 63 mg paraquat/kg feed stock exposures, respectively. Energetic doses as ug paraquat/kcal yielded preliminary estimates of energetic costs associated with paraquat exposure, and were similar within treatments for both sexes, ranging from 4.2-5.5 and 13.1-15.0 ug paraquat/kcal for voles exposed to 21 mg/kg feed stock and 63 mg/kg feed stock, respectively. Given the increasing likelihood that environmental chemicals will be found in wildlife habitat at 'acceptable levels', the critical role that wildlife nutrition plays in evaluating ecological risks should be fully integrated into the assessment process. Tools applied to the analysis of risk must gain higher resolution than the relatively crude methods we currently bring to the process.

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,↗

Effects of human activity of breeding American Oystercatchers, Cumberland Island National Seashore, Georgia, USA

Abstract.-Increased human use of coastal areas threatens the United States population of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus), a species of special concern. Biologists often attribute its low numbers and reproductive success to human disturbance, but the mechanism by which human presence reduces reproductive success is not well understood. During the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons, 32 nesting attempts of American Oystercatchers were studied on Cumberland Island National Seashore (CINS). Behavior was examined with and without human activity in the area to determine how human activity affected behavior. The oystercatchers' behavioral responses (proportion time) were analyzed with and without human or intraspecific disturbances using mixed models regression analysis. Proportions of time human activities were present (< 300 m from oystercatchers) during observations averaged 0.14 (N = 32, 95% CI = 0.08-0.20). During incubation, pedestrian activity near (< 137 m) oystercatchers reduced the frequency of occurrence of reproductive behavior, but pedestrian activity far (138-300 m) from oystercatchers had no effect. Vehicular and boat activities (< 300 m) had minimal effects on behavior during incubation. During brood rearing, an effect of pedestrian activity near oystercatchers was not evident; however, pedestrian activity far from oystercatchers increased the frequency of reproductive behavior. Vehicular and boat activity had no effects on behavior during brood rearing. Of 32 nesting attempts, two failed (<10%) because of human disturbance and were located in areas of greater human activity (south end). Managers on CINS should minimize pedestrian activity near nests (< 137 m) during incubation. During brood rearing, protection from pedestrian activity should be increased, when possible, to >137 m and vehicular activity should be minimized at current levels or less.

Waterbirds↗

An Analysis of the Population Dynamics of Selected Avian Species--With Special References to Changes During the Modern Pesticide Era

The impact of pesticides on the mortality rates and recruitment rates of nongame birds during the last 25 years was evaluated by studying the population dynamics of 16 species. A mathematical model showing the relations between population parameters that yielded stable populations was developed. The information needed for the model included (1) mortality rate schedule (obtained from recoveries of banded birds), (2) recruitment rates, and (3) the age of sexual maturity. The rate of recruitment necessary for a stable population and/or the annual rate of change (increase or decrease) in population levels were estimated. Population parameters were compared to determine whether changes had occurred between time periods (i.e., 1925-45 vs. 1946-65). The great horned owl, red-shouldered hawk, sparrow hawk, osprey, barn owl, Cooper's hawk, red-tailed hawk, great blue heron, blackcrowned night heron, brown pelican, barn swallow, chimney swift, blue jay, blackcapped chickadee, cardinal, and robin were subjected to this analysis. No increase in postfledging mortality rates in any of the species was detected during the last 25 years (since 1945). Since there was no evidence of increased mortality rates it was concluded that accelerated declines in several of the species studied resulted from lowered reproductive success. Mortality rates were found to have decreased in the Cooper's hawk, sparrow hawk, great blue heron, and brown pelican and this was associated with a decrease in shooting pressure. Evidence of lower recruitment rates was found in the brown pelican, osprey, Cooper's hawk, red-shouldered hawk, and sparrow hawk. No changes in recruitment rates were noted in the red-tailed hawk, great horned owl, great blue heron, or barn owl. Information on recruitment rates was not available for comparison with the other species although rates of recruitment essential for a stable population were estimated. This work will provide the basis for making comparisons in future studies. No change in recruitment rates was apparent among species feeding primarily on mammals. Species exhibiting a lowered reproductive success since 1945 were those whose major food items consisted of fish, reptiles, amphibians, or birds. Lowered reproductive success was accompanied by a decrease in eggshell thickness. Other investigators have reported that sparrow hawks and mallard ducks fed a diet of DDE and dieldrin have produced thin eggshells under laboratory conditions, and exhibited a lower, reproductive success. Many of the bird species that have declined are those that consume food in which chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides have been concentrated through a series of transfers along food chains. The chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides are believed responsible.

Wildlife Research Report↗

Increased energy expenditure by a seabird in response to higher food abundance

Variability in forage fish abundance strongly affects seabird behavior and reproductive success, although details of this relationship are unclear. During 1997 and 1998, we measured (1) daily energy expenditure (DEE) of 80 parent black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla at 2 colonies in Prince William Sound, Alaska (North Icy Bay and Shoup Bay), (2) abundance of surface-schooling forage fishes within the foraging range of each colony, and (3) diet composition, energy delivery rates to nestlings, and reproductive success of kittiwakes at these same colonies. Female DEE was highest at North Icy Bay in 1998, while male DEE did not differ by colony year. Abundances of Pacific herring Clupea pallasi and sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus were highest near North Icy Bay in 1998 and nearly egual in density, although Age 1+ herring comprised the majority of the diet there. Energy delivery rates to nestlings, nestling growth rates, and productivity were also highest at North Icy Bay in 1998. We suggest that female kittiwakes responded to the increased abundance of Age 1+ herring near North Icy Bay in 1998 by increasing their DEE, which in turn positively affected reproductive success. Given that adult kittiwakes have been shown to suffer decreased survival as a response to increased energy expenditure during brood rearing, the positive correlation we observed between increased abundance of a high quality food source, parental effort, and productivity is consistent with maximizing lifetime reproductive success. The lack of a response in male DEE suggests that brood-rearing roles in kittiwakes differ between genders. ?? Inter-Research 2006.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

Biodegradation of 17β-estradiol, estrone, and testosterone in stream sediments

The release of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent poses a significant threat to the ecology of surface water receptors, due to impacts on the hormonal control, sexual development, reproductive success and community structure of the indigenous aquatic organisms and associated wildlife. Among the EDCs commonly observed in WWTP effluent, the natural [e.g., 17??-estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1)] and synthetic [e.g., ethynylestradiol (EE2)] estrogens are particular concerns owing to their high endocrine reactivity in both in vitro and in vivo laboratory models. These reproductive hormones have been identified as the primary cause of estrogenic effects in wastewater effluent, with greater than 95% of the estrogen receptor agonist activity in effluent attributed to this contaminant group. The potentials for in situ biodegradation of 17??-estradiol (E2), estrone (E1), and testosterone (T) were investigated in three, hydrologically-distinct, WWTP-impacted streams in the United States. Relative differences in the mineralization of [4- 14 C] substrates were assessed in oxic microcosms containing sediment or water-only from locations upstream and downstream of the WWTP outfall in each system. Upstream samples provided insight into the biodegradative potential of sediment microbial communities that were not under the immediate impact of WWTP effluent. Upstream sediment from all three systems demonstrated significant mineralization of the "A" ring of E2, E1 and T, with the potential of T biodegradation consistently greater than of E2 and no systematic difference in the potentials of E2 and E1. Downstream samples provided insight into the impacts of effluent on reproductive hormone biodegradation. Significant "A" ring mineralization was also observed in downstream sediment, with the potentials for E1 and T mineralization being substantially depressed relative to upstream samples. In marked contrast, the potentials for E2 mineralization immediately downstream of the WWTP outfalls were more than double that of upstream samples. E2 mineralization was also observed in water, albeit at insufficient rate to prevent substantial downstream transport in the water column. The results of this study indicate that, in combination with sediment sorption processes which effectively scavenge hydrophobic contaminants from the water column and immobilize them in the vicinity of the WWTP outfall, aerobic biodegradation of reproductive hormones can be an environmentally important mechanism for nonconservative (destructive) attenuation of hormonal endocrine disruptors in effluent-impacted streams.

Conference Paper↗

Chromic and iron oxides as fecal markers to identify individual whooping cranes

The whooping crane ( Grus americana ) is listed as endangered under the IUCN Red List, the United States Endangered Species Act, and the Canadian Species at Risk Act (BirdLife International 2012, CWS and USFWS 2007). A major focus of recovery efforts for this endangered species is reintroduction to establish new populations (CWS and USFWS 2007). Captive populations are critical as a source of individuals for reintroduction efforts and also serve as insurance populations. Currently, there are a total of 157 whooping cranes held in captive breeding centers across North America, with the largest at the USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (PWRC) in Laurel, Maryland. Birds produced in this facility are currently being released as part of efforts to establish the Eastern Migratory Population (EMP, Urbanek et al. 2005) and in an effort to establish a non-migratory population in Louisiana. In the past decade, PWRC has produced and released annually an average of 18 birds into the wild; however, reproductive performance of birds at this facility is lower than desired. PWRC had a 60% fertility rate for eggs laid from 2000 through 2010 (J. N. Chandler, personal communication, 2011). Furthermore, reproductive onset in this captive population appears to be delayed compared to wild populations. In wild populations, reproductive onset (production of sperm and eggs) normally occurs ~5 years of age in both males and females, ~2 years after initial pair formation occurs (Ellis et al., 1996), while some females in the EMP have laid eggs earlier than 5 years of age (Converse et al. 2011). However, PWRC females in some cases do not start to lay eggs until 7 years of age (Mirande et al. 1996). Currently, the PWRC population consists of a total of 74 whooping cranes, including 22 pairs. Six of these pairs (27%) are consistently infertile (i.e., no production of fertile eggs) and 3 other pairs (14%) have low fertility (30- 45% fertility in eggs laid), which is variable from year to year. Six pairs (27%) are recently formed and have not produced eggs, and so have unknown fertility. This leaves only 7 pairs (33%) which contribute maximally to PWRC’s chick production (J. N. Chandler, personal communication, 2011). Because of the challenges occurring within this captive colony, PWRC and Smithsonian National Zoo have initiated a joint research project to identify potential underlying causes of poor reproduction in captive whooping cranes.

Conference Paper↗

Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee population.

Information and Technology Report↗

Sampling to estimate population size and detect trends in Tricolored Blackbirds

The Tricolored Blackbird ( Agelaius tricolor ) is a medium-sized passerine that nests in the largest colonies of any North American landbird since the extinction of the passenger pigeon ( Ectopistes migratorius ) over 100 years ago (Beedy and Hamilton 1999). The species has a restricted range that occurs almost exclusively within California, with only a few hundred birds scattered in small groups in Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and northwestern Baja California, Mexico (Beedy and Hamilton 1999). Tricolored Blackbirds are itinerant breeders (i.e., breed more than once per year in different locations) and use a wide variety of nesting substrates (Hamilton 1998), many of which are ephemeral. They are also insect dependent during the breeding season, and reproductive success is strongly correlated with relative insect abundance (Meese 2013). Researchers have noted for decades that Tricolored Blackbird’s insect prey are highly variable in space and time; Payne (1969), for example, described the species as a grasshopper follower because they are preferred food items, and high grasshopper abundance is often associated with high reproductive success (Payne 1969, Meese 2013). Thus, the species’ basic reproductive strategy is tied to rather infrequent periods of relatively high insect abundance in some locations followed by much longer periods of range -wide relatively low insect abundance and poor reproductive success. Of course, anthropogenic factors such as habitat loss and insecticide use may be at least partly responsible for these patterns (Hallman et al. 2014, Airola et al. 2014).

Central Valley Bird Club Bulletin↗

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus)

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest-management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information and its implications for the harvest management strategy. The development of an adaptive harvest management (AHM) strategy requires specification of four elements: (a) a set of alternative population models, which bound the uncertainty about effects of harvest and other relevant environmental factors; (b) a set of probabilities (or weights) describing the relative credibility of the alternative models, which are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and monitoring information; (c) a set of alternative harvest quotas from which to choose; and (d) a management objective function, by which alternative harvest strategies can be evaluated and a mathematically optimal strategy identified. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models were developed. Those models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent, and the extent to which spring temperatures influence survival and reproduction. Five of the models incorporate density-dependent mechanisms that would maintain the population near a carrying capacity (i.e., in the absence of harvest) of 65,000 – 129,000 depending on the specific model. The remaining four models are density independent and predict an exponentially growing population even with moderate levels of harvest. The most current set of monitoring information was used to update model weights for the period 1991 – 2016. Current model weights suggest little evidence for density-dependent survival and reproduction. These results suggest that the pink-footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. There is equivocal evidence for the effect of May temperature days in Svalbard (number of days with temperatures above freezing) on survival and reproduction. Beginning with the 2016 hunting season, harvest quotas are chosen on an annual basis rather than every three years because of the potential to better meet management objectives. The optimal harvest strategy, however, remains “knife-edged,” meaning that small changes in resource status can precipitate large changes in the annual harvest quota. This potential outcome is likely to be of concern to hunters, and we are investigating ways in which large swings in harvest quotas might be dampened. Based on updated model probabilities, the recent observations of record-high population size (88,000), the aboveaverage proportion of the population comprised of one-year-old birds (0.196), and temperature days in Svalbard (4), the suggested harvest quota for the 2017 hunting season is 36,000. Last year the quota was 25,000, yet a harvest of only 16,143 was realized. We are increasingly concerned that with the return of average spring temperatures in Svalbard, the population will continue to grow beyond managers’ ability to control it, as is the case with many goose populations in Europe and North America.

EGMP Technical Report↗

Monitoring the recovery of seabirds and forage fish following a major ecosystem disruption in Lower Cook Inlet

Following the North Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016 and associated extreme die-off of seabirds in the winter of 2015-2016, we repeated historical marine bird and forage fish surveys around two seabird colonies (Gull Island, Chisik Island) in lower Cook Inlet during 2016-2019 in order to document immediate and lingering impacts of the heatwave on resident fish and seabird populations. At sea, we conducted acoustic/trawl surveys for fish in near-colony areas, while simultaneously counting seabirds on survey transects. At colonies, we monitored bird numbers on whole colony censuses and population plot counts and assessed annual reproductive success of Black-legged Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) and Common Murres ( Uria aalge ). Our studies suggest that impacts of the heatwave on seabirds and their forage base were severe and extended for several years beyond the heatwave itself. Although fish biomass indices were greatest in 2016-2017, the forage community was largely dominated by juvenile fish with low nutritional value following a collapse of key species of forage fish during the marine heatwave. Lowest fish biomass was observed in 2018, coincident with a marked decline in the at-sea abundance of many seabirds around colonies. By 2019 there were signs of improvement in prey abundance and quality, and significant aggregations of pre-spawning capelin and large sand lance were observed in and around Kachemak Bay. In comparison with historical (1996-1999) bird colony surveys, kittiwake population counts decreased by more than 70% at Chisik Island, and by 8-29% at Gull Island. Similarly, murre counts decreased at Chisik Island by 72% and by more than 20% at Gull Island. Kittiwakes had complete reproductive failure at Chisik Island from 2016-2018, with minimal success in 2019. At Gull Island, kittiwakes also failed in 2016 and 2018 but had unusually high productivity in 2017 and 2019. Murres also had complete reproductive failures at Chisik Island in all four years and at Gull Island during 2016, 2017 and 2018. Murres finally fledged chicks in 2019, albeit at about half the normal rate. Finally, we also observed unusually high levels of predator disturbance (egg predation, flushing adults from plots) and unprecedented numbers of adult birds in poor body condition (“skinny murres”), particularly in 2018. Together, these results indicate that an extreme disruption of marine food webs occurred during and after the heatwave. Given the prolonged reproductive failures, continued monitoring is required to assess continuing impacts and recovery from the 2014-2016 heatwave. For example, murre chicks that would have been produced in 2016 should, after 4-5 years away, start recruiting to the colony in 2021, and thereby replace aged adults that would have died naturally in the past year(s). Without such natal recruitment for at least the next 3-4 years, we should document a continuing decline in bird numbers at the colonies.

Alaska↗

Prioritizing uncertainties to improve management of a reintroduction program

The success of wildlife reintroduction efforts rests on the demographic performance of released animals. Whooping Cranes in the eastern migratory population—reintroduced beginning in 2001—demonstrate adequate survival but poor reproduction. Managers and scientists have used an iterative process of learning and management to respond to this management challenge, but by 2015, uncertainty about the causes of reproductive failure remained substantial. An expert judgment–driven process was used to develop and refine competing hypotheses for reproductive failure and to evaluate the impact of various management actions on components of reproduction (nesting success and fledging success) in light of the various hypotheses. I used that information to calculate value of information, the expected improvement in management performance associated with an increase in knowledge, which suggests research and monitoring priorities for the future.

Book chapter↗

Congruence among multiple indices of habitat preference for species facing human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study using the Brewer's sparrow

Accurate evaluations of habitat preference are key to understanding optimal conditions for wildlife survival and reproduction. Habitat selection, however, usually is evaluated using a single index of preference, and congruence among multiple, relevant indices of preference is examined rarely. We assessed the concordance between patterns of habitat preference using three different indices of breeding site preference in a migratory songbird. Specifically, we compared the chronology of territorial establishment, pair formation and reproductive initiation of the Brewer's sparrow ( Spizella breweri ) along a gradient of surface disturbance associated with natural gas development in Wyoming, USA during 2019. We expected all three indices to demonstrate a preference for breeding sites with less surface disturbance, where reproductive success typically is higher. By contrast, all indices suggested suboptimal preference with respect to surface disturbance, with some discrepancy among them. The chronology of settlement and pairing did not vary across the disturbance gradient, whereas nest initiation tended to occur earlier at sites with more disturbance. If the pattern of suboptimal selection of breeding sites that we identified is generalizable across other populations of migratory birds affected by energy development, the resultant lower fitness in those areas may exacerbate population declines. Our results suggest that traditional, single-index approaches to the study of habitat selection, if chosen carefully, may provide adequate inference on habitat preferences. Different metrics, however, can lead to at least subtle differences in patterns of habitat selection. The simultaneous examination of multiple indices of preference across a diversity of systems would help clarify the contexts under which preference metrics can become decoupled.

Wyoming↗