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Results for “Regional Environmental Change”

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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Simulated water sources and effects of pumping on surface and ground water, Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The sandy sediments underlying Cape Cod, Massachusetts, compose an important aquifer that is the sole source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and urbanization on Cape Cod lead to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to water supply: (1) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer and (2) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive surface waters, such as ponds and streams. These considerations are particularly important on the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, which underlie the largest and most populous areas on Cape Cod. Numerical models of the two flow lenses were developed to simulate ground-water-flow conditions in the aquifer and to (1) delineate areas at the water table contributing water to wells and (2) estimate the effects of pumping and natural changes in recharge on surface waters. About 350 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the aquifer at the water table in this area; most water (about 65 percent) discharges at the coast and most of the remaining water (about 28 percent) discharges into streams. A total of about 24.9 Mgal/d, or about 7 percent, of water in the aquifer is withdrawn for water supply; most pumped water is returned to the hydrologic system as return flow creating a state of near mass balance in the aquifer. Areas at the water table that contribute water directly to production wells total about 17 square miles; some water (about 10 percent) pumped from the wells flows through ponds prior to reaching the wells. Current (2003) steady-state pumping reduces simulated ground-water levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; projected (2020) pumping may reduce water levels by an additional 3 feet or more in these same areas. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping reduces total streamflow by about 4 and 9 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), corresponding to about 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively, of total streamflow. Natural recharge varies with time, over both monthly and multiyear time scales. Monthly changes in recharge cause pond levels to vary between 1 and 2 feet in an average year; annual changes in recharge, which can be much larger than monthly variations, can cause pond levels to vary by more than 10 feet in some areas over a period of years. Streamflow, which also changes in response to changes in recharge, varies by a factor of two over an average year and can vary more over multiyear periods. On average, monthly pumping ranges from 15.8 Mgal/d in March to 45.3 Mgal/d in August. Pumping and the distribution of return flow can seasonally affect the hydrologic system by lowering ground-water and pond levels and by depleting streamflows, particularly in the summer months. Maximum drawdowns in March and August exceed 3 feet and 6 feet, respectively, for current (2003) pumping. Simulated drawdowns from projected (2020) pumping, relative to water levels representing 2003 pumping conditions, exceed 2 feet in March and 5 feet in August. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping can decrease pond levels in some areas by more than 3 feet; drawdown generally is largest during the month of August of an average year. Over multiyear periods, seasonal pumping can lower pond levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; the effects of seasonal pumping are largest during periods of reduced recharge. Monthly streamflow depletion varies in individual streams but can exceed 2 ft3/s in some streams. The combined effects of seasonal pumping and drought can reduce pond levels by more than 10 feet below average levels. Water levels in Mary Dunn Pond, which is in an area of large current and projected pumping, are predicted (2020) to decline during drought conditions by about 10.6 feet: about 6.9 feet from lower recharge, about 2.3 feet from current (2003) pumping, and about 1.4 feet from additional future (2020) pumping. The results indicate that pumping generally does not cause substantial streamflow depletion and that the primary effect of pumping is on water levels in ponds. Natural changes in recharge account for most of the variation in pond levels; however, pumping can cause substantial declines in the levels of ponds near pumping wells. Also, the effects of pumping and recharge can combine to cause drawdowns of more than 10 feet in some areas.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2010

Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: Unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non‐forest species

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6. Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal and inter-patch matrix habitats to identify which species within a community are likely to be impacted most by habitat loss and fragmentation. This model can be applied to other taxa (i.e. amphibians, mammals and insects) to estimate species and community occurrence dynamics in response to current environmental conditions and to make predictions in response to future changes in habitat configurations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2021

Cohesive sediment modeling in a shallow estuary: Model and environmental implications of sediment parameter variation

Numerical models of sediment transport in estuarine systems rely on parameter values that are often poorly constrained and can vary on timescales relevant to model processes. The selection of parameter values can affect the accuracy of model predictions, while environmental variation of these parameters can impact the temporal and spatial ranges of sediment fluxes, erosion, and deposition in the real world. We implemented a numerical model of San Pablo Bay, an embayment within San Francisco Bay, California, for November–December 2014, and compared model outputs to observations of water level, velocity, wave parameters, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the shallow regions. Idealized model runs show that wind timing relative to the phase of the tides is the strongest control on sediment fluxes and bed erosion. We varied sediment erodibility in the outflow of the Petaluma River; while this causes erosion and deposition to vary strongly through the shallows system, total export from the shallows does not change. Model runs with realistic winds show that wind likely resuspends faster settling particles or allows for more particle flocculation; particle settling velocity controls system-wide sediment accumulation. At the margins of the system, the magnitude of SSC is closely tied to wind direction when winds occur during flood tide, but sediment deposition is less connected: Both bed evolution and SSC need to be considered in the prediction of marsh fate. Spatial patterns of light attenuation due to SSC is strongly tied to assumed settling velocity.

California↗
USGS2017

Drivers and environmental responses to the changing annual snow cycle of northern Alaska

On the North Slope of Alaska, earlier spring snowmelt and later onset of autumn snow accumulation are tied to atmospheric dynamics and sea ice conditions, and result in environmental responses. Linkages between atmospheric, ecological and biogeochemical variables in the changing Arctic are analyzed using long-term measurements near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Two key variables are the date when snow disappears in spring, as determined primarily by atmospheric dynamics, precipitation, air temperature, winter snow accumulation and cloud cover, as well as the date of onset of snowpack in autumn that is additionally influenced by ocean temperature and sea ice extent. In 2015 and 2016 the snow melted early at Utqiaġvik due mainly to anomalous warmth during May of both years attributed to atmospheric circulation patterns, with 2016 having the record earliest snowmelt. These years are discussed in the context of a 115-year snowmelt record at Utqiaġvik with a trend toward earlier melting since the mid- 1970s (-2.86 days/decade, 1975-2016). At nearby Cooper Island, where a colony of seabirds, Black Guillemots, have been monitored since 1975, timing of egg laying is correlated with Utqiaġvik snowmelt with 2015 and 2016 being the earliest years in the 42-year record. Ice-out at a nearby freshwater lagoon is also correlated with Utqiaġvik snowmelt. The date when snow begins to accumulate in autumn at Utqiaġvik shows a trend towards later dates (+4.6 days/decade, 1975-2016), with 2016 the latest on record. The relationships between the lengthening snow-free season and regional phenology, soil temperatures, fluxes of gases from the tundra, and to regional sea ice conditions are discussed. Better understanding of these interactions is needed to predict the annual snow cycles in the region at seasonal to decadal scales, and to anticipate coupled environmental responses.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Long-term variation in polar bear body condition and maternal investment relative to a changing environment

In the Arctic, warming air and ocean temperatures have resulted in substantial changes to sea ice, which is primary habitat for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Reductions in extent, duration, and thickness have altered sea ice dynamics, which influences the ability of polar bears to reliably access marine mammal prey. Because nutritional condition is closely linked to population vital rates, a progressive decline in access to prey or an increase in the energetic cost of accessing prey has the potential to adversely affect polar bear population dynamics. We examined long-term (1983–2015) patterns of spring body condition (indexed using residual body mass) and maternal investment (i.e., litter mass of cubs-of-the-year and yearlings; COY and YRL) of polar bears from Alaska’s southern Beaufort Sea to evaluate potential relationships with regional- and circumpolar-scale sea ice conditions and atmospheric patterns. The length of the summer open-water (OW) season (i.e., the period of time the sea ice is mostly absent from the continental shelf) increased at a rate of 18 days decade -1 over the study period. However, the OW season duration was not a strong determinant of spring residual body mass or litter mass. Residual body mass of independent (i.e., subadults and adults) female bears varied relative to age class, reproductive status, and the strength of the prior winter’s Arctic Oscillation (i.e., a circumpolar-scale mode of climate variability driven by long-term atmospheric patterns). Spring residual mass of independent males varied with age class and variation in wind speed (i.e., regional-scale short-term atmospheric patterns) during the winter of the year preceding capture. Over the study period, mean annual body mass of adult females unaccompanied by COY declined by 4 kg/ decade -1 , while no temporal trends were evident in the mean annual body mass of adult females with COY, adult males, and subadults. Litter mass of COY varied relative to capture date, maternal age class and mass, litter size, and year of capture. Litter mass of YRL varied with capture date, maternal age class and mass, litter size, variation in winter wind speed (the year of and year preceding capture), and the strength of the prior winter’s Arctic Oscillation. Mean annual litter mass of COY decreased at a rate of 2.6 kg decade -1 and declined 0.68 kg for every 10 kg reduction in maternal mass. No trend was evident in the mean annual litter mass of yearlings. These findings suggest a nuanced response of the southern Beaufort Sea polar bears to environmental change, where some demographic groups (e.g., adult males and subadults) are presently more resilient than others to changes in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Elevated mercury concentrations and isotope signatures (N, C, Hg) in yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) from the Galápagos Marine Reserve and waters off Ecuador

We examined how dietary factors recorded by C and N influence Hg uptake in 347 individuals of yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares ), an important subsistence resource from the Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) and the Ecuadorian mainland coast (EMC) in 2015-2016. We found no differences in total Hg (THg) measured in red muscle between the two regions and no seasonal differences, likely due to the age of the fish and slow elimination rates of Hg. Our THg concentrations are comparable to other studies in the Pacific (0.06–2.88 mg/kg wet weight), but a subset of individuals exhibited the highest mercury concentrations yet reported in yellowfin tuna. Mercury isotope values differed between Δ199Hg and δ202Hg in both regions (Δ199Hg = 2.86±0.04‰ vs. Δ199Hg = 2.33 ± 0.07‰), likely related to shifting food webs and differing photochemical processing of Hg prior to entry into the food web. There were significantly lower values of both δ15N and δ13C in tuna from GMR (δ15N: 8.5–14.2‰, δ13C: -18.5–-16.1‰) compared to those from the EMC (δ15N: 8.3–14.4‰, δ13C: -19.4–-11.9‰), of which δ13C values suggest spatially-constrained movements of tunas. Results from the pooled analysis, without considering region, indicated that variations in δ13C and δ15N values tracked changes of Hg stable isotopes. Our data indicate that the individual tuna from this study were resident fish of each region and heavily influenced by upwellings related to the Eastern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone and the Humboldt Current System. C, N, and Hg isotopes reflect foraging behavior mainly on epipelagic prey in shallow waters and that food web shifts drive Hg variations between these populations of tuna.

Galápagos Marine Reserve, Pacific Ocean↗
USGS2021

Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake ( Lampropeltis californiae ) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2019

Relationships between diatom metrics based on species nutrient traits and agricultural land use

We assessed how diatom metrics were related to different ranges of agricultural land use. Diatom assemblage composition, nutrients, and landscape characteristics were determined at 232 sites in eight agriculturally dominated study areas of the continental United States. Two regional groups based on differences in diatom relations to human disturbance were determined. Changes in diatom species composition were related to nutrients,pH,and conductivity in the eastern study areas (due to more wetlands) and more exclusively to nutrients in the west-central study areas. Homogenization of diatom flora among streams was related to high agricultural disturbance at this transcontinental scale. Species traits were developed separately for the east and west central study groups and calculated two ways: indicator species analysis for taxa in low and high TN or TP conditions and weighted average partial least squares models of TN and TP concentration. These diatom metrics were significantly related to many indicators of agricultural land use in watersheds, especially percent row crops. Further analysis was conducted on only the west-central region due to its larger sample size.Overall, diatom metrics using species responses to N gradients were better related to agricultural land use than were species responses to P gradients. Most nutrient-based diatom metrics changed greatly in response to low ranges of percent row crops, but only a few high N diatom metrics responded to high row crop conditions. The greater response of diatoms to changes in low agriculture conditions may be due to past diatom evolution occurring when most waters had low nutrient conditions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Ida↗
USGS2007

Morphological evolution in the San Francisco Bight

San Francisco Bight, located near the coast of San Francisco, USA, is an extremely dynamic tidal inlet environmental subject to large waves and strong currents. Wave heights coming from the Pacific Ocean commonly exceed 5 m during winter storms. During peak flow tidal currents approach 3 m/s at the Golden Gate, a 1 km wide entrance that connects San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean. Flow structure in this region varies markedly spatially and temporally due to the complex interaction by wind, waves and tidal currents. A multibeam sonar survey was recently completed that mapped in high resolution, for the first time, the bottom morphology in the region of the ebb tidal delta. This data set includes a giant sand wave field covering an area of approximately 4 square kilometers. The new survey enables the calculation of seabed change that has occurred in the past 50 years, since the last comprehensive survey of the area was completed. This comparison indicates an average erosion of 60 centimeters which equates to a total volume change of approximately 9.3 x 10 7 m 3 . Morphologic change also indicates that flood channels have filled and that the entire ebb delta is contracting radially.

California↗
USGS2019

Integrated hydrologic modeling of the Salinas River, California, for sustainable water management

The Salinas River is the largest river in California’s Central Coast region. Groundwater resources of the Salinas River basin are used to meet water supply needs, including crop irrigation and municipal water supply. Two large multipurpose reservoirs also supply irrigation and municipal water uses. Historical imbalances between supply and demand have resulted in sinking groundwater levels, seawater intrusion, regulatory actions on pumping, adjudication, and requirements for minimum in-stream fish flows. Present needs include finding replacement water supplies and improving watershed management to comply with legal mandates, adapt to future climate variability and landuse conversions, and improve environmental conditions. The Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) was developed to help water managers evaluate and adjust to projected impacts on water supplies and demands in the Salinas Valley watershed caused by changes in land use, population, and climate. The SVIHM includes four modeling components: (1) the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), (2) the Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF), (3) MODFLOW - One Water Hydrologic Model (MF-OWHM), and (4) the Surface Water Operations (SWO) package. The BCM and HSPF components compose the Salinas Valley Watershed Model (SVWM). The 4,530 square-mile (mi2) SVWM domain encompasses the entire Salinas River watershed, as well as coastal drainages adjacent to the Salinas River outflow, and includes two separate and connected HSPF model domains, the 2,540 mi2 upper Salinas River and the 1,990 mi2 lower Salinas River models. SVWM (1) simulates the water budget for the entire Salinas River basin containing both the SVIHM domain as well as the mountainous terrain of the tributary headwater areas not included in the SVIHM; and (2) was used to develop the 148 boundary inflows for the SVIHM. Simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget after precipitation, with a 71-year average basin-wide ET of 13.9 in/yr, compared to the basin-wide average precipitation of 18.4 in/yr. Simulated ET ranges from 15 to 29 in/yr along the western side of the SVWM to less than 10 in/yr throughout the valley floor and in the southeast part of the Salinas River watershed. The simulated total 71-year average inflow to the SVIHM was 890 ft3/sec (about 640,000 acre-feet per year), with the highest average inflow of 270 ft3/sec simulated for the Nacimiento River; whereas, the simulated 71-year average streamflow at the mouth of the Salinas River was only about 190 ft3/sec, indicating that most of the streamflow generated in the Salinas River basin is lost to channel seepage. The lack of sustained baseflow causes streamflow to be highly sensitive to the temporal variability in precipitation, especially during the drier periods, and this increases the importance of developing adequate reservoir management, flow augmentation, and conjunctive water use scenarios for potential future drought periods and potentially increased temporal variability in precipitation.

California↗
USGS2019

Climate teleconnections synchronize Picea glauca masting and fire disturbance: Evidence for a fire‐related form of environmental prediction

Synchronous pulses of seed masting and natural disturbance have positive feedbacks on the reproduction of masting species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems. We test the hypotheses that disturbances and proximate causes of masting are correlated, and that their large‐scale synchrony is driven by similar climate teleconnection patterns at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. Hypotheses were tested on white spruce ( Picea glauca ), a masting species which surprisingly persists in fire‐prone boreal forests while lacking clear fire adaptations. We built masting, drought and fire indices at regional (Alaska, Yukon, Alberta, Quebec) and sub‐continental scales (western North America) spanning the second half of the 20th century. Superposed Epoch Analysis tested the temporal associations between masting events, drought and burnt area at the regional scale. At the sub‐continental scale, Superposed Epoch Analysis tested whether El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its coupled effects with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the positive phase (AMO+/ENSO+) synchronize drought, burnt area and masting. We additionally tested the consistency of our synchronization hypotheses on a decadal temporal scale to verify whether long‐term oscillations in AMO+/ENSO+ are coherent to decadal variation in drought, burnt area and masting. Analyses demonstrated synchronicity between drought, fire and masting. In all regions the year before a mast event was drier and more fire‐prone than usual. During AMO+/ENSO+ events sub‐continental indices of drought and burnt area experienced significant departures from mean values. The same was observed for large‐scale masting in the subsequent year, confirming 1‐year lag between fire and masting. Sub‐continental indices of burnt area and masting showed in‐phase decadal fluctuations led by the AMO+/ENSO+. Results support the ‘Environmental prediction hypothesis’ for mast seeding. Synthesis . We provide evidence of large‐scale synchronicity between seed masting in Picea glauca and fire regimes in boreal forests of western North America at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. We conclude that seed production in white spruce predicts changes in disturbance regimes by sharing the same large‐scale climate drivers with drought and fire. This gives new insides in a mechanism providing a fire‐sensitive species with higher than expected adaptability to changes in climate.

Alaska, Alberta, Quebec, Yukon↗
USGS2018

Groundwater-level, groundwater-temperature, and barometric-pressure data, July 2017 to February 2018, Hālawa Area, Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi

The Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility, operated by the U.S. Navy and located in the Hālawa area, Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi, includes 20 underground storage tanks that can hold a total of 250 million gallons of fuel. In January 2014, the U.S. Navy notified the Hawaiʻi Department of Health and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency of release of an estimated 27,000 gallons of fuel from the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility. In response to past and potential future fuel releases, data are needed to evaluate groundwater flow in the surrounding area. During July 2017–February 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey collected groundwater-level data at 24 sites near the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility. At 14 of the 24 sites, groundwater-temperature data were also collected, and at 6 of the 24 sites, barometric-pressure data were collected. During the data-collection period, a regional aquifer test was conducted in coordination with the operators of three production wells in the area. The recorded water-level changes in response to planned withdrawal changes during December 2017–February 2018 can be used to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system. The scope of this report is limited to a non-interpretive presentation of the data and a brief discussion of the factors affecting the water-level data.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2009

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise— A focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation. The SAP also outlines the policy context in the mid-Atlantic region and describes the implications of sea-level rise impacts for other regions of the United States. Finally, this SAP discusses ways natural and social science research can improve understanding and prediction of potential impacts to aid planning and decision making. Projections of sea-level rise for the twenty-first century vary widely, ranging from several centimeters to more than a meter. Rising sea level can inundate low areas and increase flooding, coastal erosion, wetland loss, and saltwater intrusion into estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Existing elevation data for the mid-Atlantic United States do not provide the degree of confidence needed for local decision making. Systematic nationwide collection of high-resolution elevation data would improve the ability to conduct detailed assessments in support of planning. The coastal zone is dynamic and the response of coastal areas to sea-level rise is more complex than simple inundation. Much of the United States consists of coastal environments and landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands that will respond to sea-level rise by changing shape, size, or position. The combined effects of sea-level rise and other climate change factors such as storms may cause rapid and irreversible coastal change. All these changes will affect coastal habitats and species. Increasing population and development in coastal areas also affects the ability of natural ecosystems to adjust to sea-level rise. Coastal communities and property owners have responded to coastal hazards by erecting shore protection structures, elevating land and buildings, or relocating inland. Accelerated sea-level rise would increase the costs and environmental impacts of these responses. Shoreline armoring can eliminate the land along the shore to which the public has access; beach nourishment projects often increase access to the shore. Preparing for sea-level rise can be justified in many cases, because the cost of preparing now is small compared to the cost of reacting later. Examples include wetland protection, flood insurance, longlived infrastructure, and coastal land-use planning. Nevertheless, preparing for sea-level rise has been the exception rather than the rule. Most coastal institutions were based on the implicit assumption that sea level and shorelines are stable. Efforts to plan for sea-level rise can be thwarted by several institutional biases, including government policies that encourage coastal development, flood insurance maps that do not consider sea-level rise, federal policies that prefer shoreline armoring over soft shore protection, and lack of plans delineating which areas would be protected or not as sea level rises. The prospect of accelerated sea-level rise and increased vulnerability in coastal regions underscores the immediate need for improving our scientific understanding of and ability to predict the effects of sea-level rise on natural systems and society. These actions, combined with development of decision support tools for taking adaptive actions and an effective public education program, can lessen the economic and environmental impacts of sea-level rise.

Report↗
USGS2018

Calibration of regional hydraulic and transport properties of an arid-region aquifer under modern and paleorecharge conditions using water levels and environmental tracers

A two-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model was established and calibrated for the hyperarid Najd region in southern Oman. The results indicate that recent recharge rates are required to sustain the observed groundwater heads in the Najd. The model was also used to estimate possible ranges of past recharge rates and the effective porosity of the main aquifer unit. Recharge rates during past humid periods were estimated to be no more than 1–3 times modern rates. The effective porosity was estimated to be between 0.06 and 0.093. Insight into the nature of the long-term transport within the aquifer was gained by using transient model runs over the last 350 ka and (1) varying the recharge intensity (from 0.1 to 2.5 times modern), and (2) the timing and duration of humid and dry periods. Finally, results indicate that although recharge rates and the flow conditions have likely changed over time, a steady-state model is capable of reproducing the observed groundwater residence times in the Najd based on carbon-14, helium and chlorine-36 dating.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2017

Predicting intensity of white-tailed deer herbivory in the Central Appalachian Mountains

In eastern North America, white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) can have profound influences on forest biodiversity and forest successional processes. Moderate to high deer populations in the central Appalachians have resulted in lower forest biodiversity. Legacy effects in some areas persist even following deer population reductions or declines. This has prompted managers to consider deer population management goals in light of policies designed to support conservation of biodiversity and forest regeneration while continuing to support ample recreational hunting opportunities. However, despite known relationships between herbivory intensity and biodiversity impact, little information exists on the predictability of herbivory intensity across the varied and spatially diverse habitat conditions of the central Appalachians. We examined the predictability of browsing rates across central Appalachian landscapes at four environmental scales: vegetative community characteristics, physical environment, habitat configuration, and local human and deer population demographics. In an information - theoretic approach, we found that a model fitting the number of stems browsed relative to local vegetation characteristics received most (62%) of the overall support of all tested models assessing herbivory impact. Our data suggest that deer herbivory responded most predictably to differences in vegetation quantity and type. No other spatial factors or demographic factors consistently affected browsing intensity. Because herbivory, vegetation communities, and productivity vary spatially, we suggest that effective broad-scale herbivory impact assessment should include spatially-balanced vegetation monitoring that accounts for regional differences in deer forage preference. Effective monitoring is necessary to avoid biodiversity impacts and deleterious changes in vegetation community composition that are difficult to reverse and/or may not be detected using traditional deer-density based management goals.

Appalachian Mountains↗
USGS2004

Hydrologic processes in deep vadose zones in interdrainage arid environments

A unifying theory for the hydrology of desert vadose zones is particularly timely considering the rising population and water stresses in arid and semiarid regions. Conventional models cannot reconcile the apparent discrepancy between upward flow indicated by hydraulic gradient data and downward flow suggested by environmental tracer data in deep vadose zone profiles. A conceptual model described here explains both hydraulic and tracer data remarkably well by incorporating the hydrologic role of desert plants that encroached former juniper woodland 10 to 15 thousand years ago in the southwestern United States. Vapor transport also plays an important role in redistributing moisture through deep soils, particularly in coarse-grained sediments. Application of the conceptual model to several interdrainage arid settings reproduces measured matric potentials and chloride accumulation by simulating the transition from downward flow to upward flow just below the root zone initiated by climate and vegetation change. Model results indicate a slow hydraulic drying response in deep vadose zones that enables matric potential profiles to be used to distinguish whether precipitation episodically percolated below the root zone or was completely removed via evapotranspiration during the majority of the Holocene. Recharge declined dramatically during the Holocene in interdrainage basin floor settings of arid and semiarid basins. Current flux estimates across the water table in these environmental settings, are on the order of 0.01 to 0.1 mm yr -1 and may be recharge (downward) or discharge (upward) depending on vadose zone characteristics, such as soil texture, geothermal gradient, and water table depth. In summary, diffuse recharge through the basin floor probably contributes only minimally to the total recharge in arid and semiarid basins.

Water Science and Application↗
USGS2023

Biodiversity connections—‘ties that bind’

Connectivity is a foundational concept in ecology and conservation and was the organising theme for the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Southeastern Fishes Council, a professional organisation dedicated to the study and conservation of freshwater fishes native to the southeast region of the United States (US). We introduce a Special Contribution of six papers selected from presentations at that meeting that illustrate perspectives on connections created by fish migration and dispersal, evolved life histories and habitat affinities and interspecific facilitation. Although focused on streams of the southeast US, each of these topics is broadly relevant to freshwater fish conservation, particularly with respect to causes and consequences of migratory fish depletion, population fragmentation and species declines. Many other connections relevant to the ecology and conservation of freshwater fishes remain relatively unexplored but could substantively advance conservation. We highlight the potential that species evolutionary histories, that is connections through time, reconstructed using species distributions and phylogenies may improve predictions of species responses to environmental change. Identifying species interdependencies, including undiscovered interactions that support survival or reproduction, could provide insights into how species losses may cascade as aquatic communities unravel. Finally, efforts to elucidate diverse connections between people and freshwater biodiversity, particularly where fisheries are historic and streams mostly go unnoticed, may prove essential to building public support for conservation measures. A research agenda anchored on ‘biodiversity connections’ has the potential to advance ecological understanding and public engagement, elements essential to conserving freshwater fishes.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗
USGS2022

Species-specific responses to landscape features shaped genomic structure within Alaska galliformes

Aim Connectivity is vital to the resiliency of populations to environmental change and stochastic events, especially for cold-adapted species as Arctic and alpine tundra habitats retract as the climate warms. We examined the influence of past and current landscapes on genomic connectivity in cold-adapted galliformes as a critical first step to assess the vulnerability of Alaska ptarmigan and grouse to environmental change. We hypothesize that the mosaic of physical features and habitat within Alaska promoted the formation of genetic structure across species. Location Alaska, United States of America. Taxa Ptarmigan and Grouse (Galliformes: Tetraoninae). Methods We collected double digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequence data from six ptarmigan and grouse species ( N = 13–145/species) sampled across multiple ecosystems up to ~10 degrees of latitude. Spatial genomic structure was analysed using methods that reflect different temporal scales: (1) principal components analysis to identify major trends in the distribution of genomic variation; (2) maximum likelihood clustering analyses to test for the presence of multiple genomic groupings; (3) shared co-ancestry analyses to assess contemporary relationships and (4) effective migration surfaces to identify regions that deviate from a null model of isolation by distance. Results Levels of genomic structure varied across species (Φ ST =0.009–0.042). Three general patterns of structure emerged: (1) east-west partition located near the Yukon-Tanana uplands; (2) north-south split coinciding with the Alaska Range and (3) northern group near the Brooks Range. Species-specific patterns were observed; not all landscape features were barriers to gene flow for all ptarmigan and grouse and temporal contrasts were detected at the Brooks Range. Main conclusions Within Alaska galliformes, patterns of genomic structure coincide with physiographic features and highlight the importance of physical and ecological barriers in shaping how genomic diversity is arrayed across the landscape. Lack of concordance in spatial patterns indicates that species behaviour and habitat affinities play key roles in driving the contrasting patterns of genomic structure.

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