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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Divergent species‐specific impacts of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 on vegetation water relations in an ombrotrophic peatland

Boreal peatland forests have relatively low species diversity and thus impacts of climate change on one or more dominant species could shift ecosystem function. Despite abundant soil water availability, shallowly rooted vascular plants within peatlands may not be able to meet foliar demand for water under drought or heat events that increase vapor pressure deficits while reducing near surface water availability, although concurrent increases in atmospheric CO 2 could buffer resultant hydraulic stress. We assessed plant water relations of co‐occurring shrub (primarily Rhododendron groenlandicum and Chamaedaphne calyculata ) and tree ( Picea mariana and Larix laricina ) species prior to, and in response to whole ecosystem warming (0 to +9°C) and elevated CO 2 using 12.8‐m diameter open‐top enclosures installed within an ombrotrophic bog. Water relations (water potential [Ψ], turgor loss point, foliar and root hydraulic conductivity) were assessed prior to treatment initiation, then Ψ and peak sap flow (trees only) assessed after 1 or 2 years of treatments. Under the higher temperature treatments, L. laricina Ψ exceeded its turgor loss point, increased its peak sap flow, and was not able to recover Ψ overnight. In contrast, P. mariana operated below its turgor loss point and maintained constant Ψ and sap flow across warming treatments. Similarly, C. calyculata Ψ stress increased with temperature while R. groenlandicum Ψ remained at pretreatment levels. The more anisohydric behavior of L. laricina and C. calyculata may provide greater net C uptake with warming, while the more conservative P. mariana and R. groenlandicum maintained greater hydraulic safety. These latter species also responded to elevated CO 2 by reduced Ψ stress, which may also help limit hydraulic failure during periods of extreme drought or heat in the future. Along with Sphagnum moss, the species‐specific responses of peatland vascular communities to drier or hotter conditions will shape boreal peatland composition and function in the future.

Minnesota↗
USGS2008

Where temperate meets tropical: Multi-factorial effects of elevated CO2, nitrogen enrichment, and competition on a mangrove-salt marsh community

Our understanding of how elevated CO 2 and interactions with other factors will affect coastal plant communities is limited. Such information is particularly needed for transitional communities where major vegetation types converge. Tropical mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) intergrade with temperate salt marshes ( Spartina alterniflora ) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this transitional community represents an important experimental system to test hypotheses about global change impacts on critical ecosystems. We examined the responses of A. germinans (C 3 ) and S. alterniflora (C 4 ), grown in monoculture and mixture in mesocosms for 18 months, to interactive effects of atmospheric CO 2 and pore water nitrogen (N) concentrations typical of these marshes. A. germinans , grown without competition from S. alterniflora , increased final biomass (35%) under elevated CO 2 treatment and higher N availability. Growth of A. germinans was severely curtailed, however, when grown in mixture with S. alterniflora , and enrichment with CO 2 and N could not reverse this growth suppression. A field experiment using mangrove seedlings produced by CO 2 ‐ and N‐enriched trees confirmed that competition from S. alterniflora suppressed growth under natural conditions and further showed that herbivory greatly reduced survival of all seedlings. Thus, mangroves will not supplant marsh vegetation due to elevated CO 2 alone, but instead will require changes in climate, environmental stress, or disturbance to alter the competitive balance between these species. However, where competition and herbivory are low, elevated CO 2 may accelerate mangrove transition from the seedling to sapling stage and also increase above‐ and belowground production of existing mangrove stands, particularly in combination with higher soil N.

Louisiana↗
USGS2016

Factors affecting post-control reinvasion by seed of an invasive species, Phragmites australis , in the central Platte River, Nebraska.

Invasive plants, such as Phragmites australis , can profoundly affect channel environments of large rivers by stabilizing sediments and altering water flows. Invasive plant removal is considered necessary where restoration of dynamic channels is needed to provide critical habitat for species of conservation concern. However, these programs are widely reported to be inefficient. Post-control reinvasion is frequent, suggesting increased attention is needed to prevent seed regeneration. To develop more effective responses to this invader in the Central Platte River (Nebraska, USA), we investigated several aspects of Phragmites seed ecology potentially linked to post-control reinvasion, in comparison to other common species: extent of viable seed production, importance of water transport, and regeneration responses to hydrology. We observed that although Phragmites seed does not mature until very late in the ice-free season, populations produce significant amounts of viable seed (>50 % of filled seed). Most seed transported via water in the Platte River are invasive perennial species, although Phragmites abundances are much lower than species such as Lythrum salicaria , Cyperus esculentus and Phalaris arundinacea . Seed regeneration of Phragmites varies greatly depending on hydrology, especially timing of water level changes. Flood events coinciding with the beginning of seedling emergence reduced establishment by as much as 59 % compared to flood events that occurred a few weeks later. Results of these investigations suggest that prevention of seed set (i.e., by removal of flowering culms) should be a priority in vegetation stands not being treated annually. After seeds are in the seedbank, preventing reinvasion using prescribed flooding has a low chance of success given that Phragmites can regenerate in a wide variety of hydrologic microsites.

Nebraska↗
USGS2026

A regional simulation modeling framework for evaluating invasive annual grass management across the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses (IAG) continue to spread within the sagebrush biome of the western United States, degrading plant communities and wildlife habitat, decreasing forage for ranching livelihoods, and heightening wildfire risk. Effective management of IAGs requires action and long-term strategic planning across the sagebrush biome, but the cumulative effects of IAG treatments over time and space are not well understood, especially over broad extents defined for strategies like the Sagebrush Conservation Design. We developed a simulation model and sampling framework that allow local-scale actions to be ‘scaled up’ to evaluate large-scale regional and biome-wide management strategy outcomes. We worked with natural resource managers and experts to co-develop a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model of IAG dynamics in sagebrush landscapes that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies. We evaluated our framework by contrasting two baseline scenarios in terms of their long-term effects on the sagebrush biome. We show that focusing management efforts on moderate to high IAG cover was effective at reducing full conversion to IAGs but failed to prevent widespread establishment of IAGs in core sagebrush areas, exposing them to increased risk of wildfire and wildlife habitat degradation. The results of our model help quantify the extent of the problem that IAGs pose to sagebrush ecosystems given current knowledge and management efforts. Our framework provides a platform to explore alternative management strategy outcomes and can help managers develop informed conservation plans with realistic expectations for return on investment of resources committed to sagebrush landscapes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2025

Precipitation pulse dynamics are not ubiquitous: A global meta-analysis of plant and ecosystem carbon- and water-related pulse responses

Ecosystem responses to precipitation pulses (“pulse responses”) exert a large control over global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, it is unclear how the timing and magnitude of pulse responses will vary across ecosystems as precipitation regimes shift under accelerating climate change. To address this issue, this study evaluates how plants and ecosystems respond to precipitation pulses and explores potential implications of altered precipitation regimes for the carbon and water cycles. In particular, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the magnitude and timing of plant and ecosystem carbon-related ( A net , NPP, GPP, R eco , R bg ) and water-related (ET, T, Ψ, g s ) responses to 587 precipitation pulses. By analyzing pulse-response metrics published in the primary literature, we evaluated the characteristics of those pulse responses. We assessed whether precipitation pulses lead to a classic pulse response (i.e., a hump-shaped response as described by the pulse-reserve framework), a linear pulse response, a combination of classic and linear, or a lack of a pulse response. If a pulse response occurred, we explored the factors that drove its timing, magnitude, and speed. Our meta-analyses revealed that the classic, hump-shaped response is not ubiquitous, as it only accounted for 52% of the pulse responses. However, when a pulse response did occur, carbon-related responses to precipitation pulses were larger in magnitude (e.g., larger peak) than water-related pulse responses at relatively arid sites. However, at relatively mesic sites, this relationship reversed (i.e., water-related responses to precipitation pulses were larger than carbon-related responses). Additionally, larger precipitation pulse amounts increased water-related response magnitudes more than carbon-related response magnitudes across both arid and mesic sites. Therefore, under future precipitation intensification, carbon-related responses to precipitation pulses may become more decoupled from water-related pulse responses in wetter biomes but more coupled to water-related pulse responses in drier biomes.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

Executive Summary The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Circular↗
USGS2012

Natural hazards science strategy

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Biogeographical patterns of tunicates utilizing eelgrass as substrate in the western North Atlantic between 39o and 47o north latitude (New Jersey to Newfoundland)

Colonization of eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.) by tunicates can lead to reduced plant growth and survival. Several of the tunicate species that are found on eelgrass in the northwest Atlantic are highly aggressive colonizers, and range expansions are predicted in association with climate-change induced increases in seawater temperature. In 2017, we surveyed tunicates within eelgrass meadows at 33 sites from New Jersey to Newfoundland. Eight tunicate species were identified colonizing eelgrass, of which four were non-native and one was cryptogenic. The most common species ( Botrylloides violaceus and Botryllus schlosseri ) occurred from New York to Atlantic Canada. Tunicate faunas attached to eelgrass were less diverse north of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Artificial substrates in the vicinity of the eelgrass meadows generally supported more tunicate species than did the eelgrass, but fewer species co-occurred in northern sites than southern sites. The latitudinal gradient in tunicate diversity corresponded to gradients of summertime sea surface temperature and traditional biogeographical zones in the northwest Atlantic, where Cape Cod represents a transition between cold-water and warm-water invertebrate faunas. Tunicate density in the eelgrass meadows was low, ranging generally from 1–25% cover of eelgrass shoots, suggesting that space availability does not currently limit tunicate colonization of eelgrass. This survey, along with our 2013 survey, provide a baseline for identifying future changes in tunicate distribution and abundance in northwest Atlantic eelgrass meadows.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Brunswick, ↗
USGS2015

Book review: Restoring paradise: Rethinking and rebuilding nature in Hawaii

The native ecosystems of Hawai‘i have been severely degraded by the introduction of herbivorous mammals and a myriad of invasive plant species. Left unmanaged, most natural areas would continue along a trajectory towards domination by nonnative species; however, several projects have undertaken the daunting task of ecological restoration, four of which are the subject of Restoring Paradise by Robert Cabin: Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge; Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park; the Auwahi dryland forest, Maui and Limahuli Garden and Preserve, Kaua‘i. After an introductory section discussing the setting and factors that have contributed to so much of the degradation and extinction of Hawai‘i’s native biota, Cabin outlines two different views of restoration in two central sections of the book: ad hoc, trial-and-error approaches versus the careful application of science to direct restoration. The time-tested methods of fence construction, ungulate removal, weed control, and replanting native species with the help of numerous volunteers and community support are presented in marked contrast to inconsistent applications of science in guiding restoration, and illustrated by some of the author’s unsuccessful research. The book is largely presented as a non-technical first-person account of travels and meetings with key personalities driving restoration projects. The philosophies of restoration practitioners are embedded in passages from interviews. Setbacks, obstacles, logistical constraints, and successes are narrated in between as Cabin revisits each of the restoration sites. The utility of science in restoration is frequently questioned by the author and sometimes abandoned by practitioners in favour of a ‘let-nature-take-its-course’ approach. Review info: Restoring Paradise: Rethinking and Rebuilding Nature in Hawaii . By Robert J. Cabin, 2013. ISBN: 978-0822836931, 236 pp.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗
USGS2004

Contribution of natural history collection data to biodiversity assessment in national parks

There has been mounting interest in the use of museum and herbaria collections to assess biodiversity; information is often difficult to locate and access, however, and few recommendations are available for effectively using natural history collections. As part of an effort to inventory vertebrates and vascular plants in U.S. national parks, we searched manually and by computer for specimens originating within or adjacent to 14 parks throughout the northeastern United States. We compared the number of specimens located to collection size to determine whether there was any effect on detection rate of specimens. We evaluated the importance of park characteristics (e.g., age since establishment, size, theme [natural vs. cultural]) for influencing the number of specimens found in a collection. We located >31,000 specimens and compiled associated records (hereafter referred to as specimens) from 78 collections; >9000 specimens were park-significant, originating either within park boundaries or in the local township where the park was located. We found >2000 specimens by means of manual searches, which cost $0.001–0.15 per specimen searched and $0.81–151.95 per specimen found. Collection effort appeared relatively uniform between 1890 and 1980, with low periods corresponding to significant sociopolitical events. Detection rates for specimens were inversely related to collection size. Although specimens were most often located in collections within the region of interest, specimens can be found anywhere, particularly in large collections international in scope, suggesting that global searches will be necessary to evaluate historical biodiversity. Park characteristics indicated that more collecting effort occurred within or adjacent to larger parks established for natural resources than in smaller historical sites. Because many institutions have not yet established electronic databases for collections, manual searches can be useful for retrieving specimens. Our results show that thorough, systematic searching of natural history collections for park-significant specimens can provide a historical perspective on biodiversity for park managers.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2019

Plasticity in elk migration timing is a response to changing environmental conditions

Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate-induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade-off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd-level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE-wide changes—except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green-up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator–prey dynamics, carnivore–livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

Evaluating the piscicide rotenone as an option for eradication of invasive Mozambique tilapia in a Hawaiian brackish-water wetland complex

Mozambique tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus were recently discovered in ‘Aimakapā Fishpond, a 12-hectare brackish-water wetland complex in Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, on the Island of Hawai’i. As a possible eradication method, we evaluated rotenone, a natural piscicide used in fish management and the active ingredient in plants traditionally used by indigenous Hawaiians for capturing fish. To assess rotenone’s efficacy in killing tilapia and effects on non-target species, laboratory toxicity tests involved exposing organisms to various concentrations of liquid CFT Legumine (5% rotenone) in static trials of 48-h to 72-h duration. Test organisms included: Mozambique tilapia, non-native guppy Poecilia reticulata , the non-native odonate Rambur’s forktail Ischnura ramburii , native feeble shrimp Palaemon debilis , and native ‘ōpae’ula shrimp Halocaridina rubra . All organisms and water used in tests were obtained from ‘Aimakapā (12.6–12.7 ppt salinity), or, for H. rubra , an anchialine pool (15.0–15.2 ppt salinity). Survival analyses indicated CFT Legumine concentrations >3 ppm (>0.15 mg/L rotenone) achieved 100% mortality of tilapia and 93% of guppies within 24 h, with most tilapia killed by 6 h and most guppies by 2 h. Little or no mortality was observed among invertebrate exposed to 1 to 5 mg/L CFT Legumine: 0% mortality for ‘ōpae’ula shrimp, 4% for feeble shrimp; and 16% for odonate larvae. The 48 h LC50 values for Mozambique tilapia and guppy were 0.06 and 0.11 mg/L rotenone, respectively. Results demonstrate rotenone’s potential for non-native fish eradication in brackish-water habitats, with benefit of low mortality to certain macro-invertebrates. High rotenone tolerance displayed by ‘ōpae’ula shrimp is noteworthy. Invasive fish are common in anchialine pools, threatening existence of shrimp and other invertebrate fauna. Although rotenone’s effects on freshwater organisms have been well studied, our research represents one of only a few controlled laboratory experiments quantitatively assessing rotenone tolerance of brackish or marine fauna.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Role of ingesta particle size in the green turtle grazing strategy, ontogenetic diet shifts, and responses to seagrass declines

Populations of the green turtle ( Chelonia mydas ), a mega-herbivore that consumes seagrasses, are recovering worldwide. Understanding green turtle adaptations to herbivory and responses to changes in seagrass availability will be critical to interpreting plant–herbivore interactions as green turtle populations continue to rebound. Ingesta particle size and diet composition of two green turtle foraging aggregations (Bermuda, 32.3° N, 64.8° W; U.S. Virgin Islands [USVI], 17.8° N, 64.6° W) in the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) were evaluated to assess the prevalence of herbivory across foraging sites and life stages, determine if there is an optimum ingesta particle size, and evaluate green turtle responses to changes in seagrass availability. Both aggregations were herbivorous (> 90% seagrass/algae) across size classes (straight carapace length, SCL). Ingesta particle size (mean ± SD) did not differ between Bermuda (2.6 ± 1.4 cm) and the USVI (2.3 ± 1.2 cm). Of seagrass leaves ingested, 20–30% were 1.7 cm in length, indicating a potential optimum for maximizing digestion rates. Turtle size (SCL) had a significant effect on particle size in Bermuda ( p = 0.01, R 2 = 0.16) (35.1 ± 9.9 cm SCL) but not in the USVI aggregation, which was comprised of larger turtles (49.0 ± 6.1 cm SCL). In Bermuda, there was no apparent response to the declines in seagrass availability. Ingesta particle size and volume of seagrass leaves did not decline from 2015 to 2019, nor was there an increase in volume of seagrass roots and rhizomes. These results indicate herbivory is prevalent across size classes at two NWA foraging sites and ingesta particle size has important implications for optimizing the green turtle grazing strategy and facilitating ontogenetic diet shifts to herbivory in juveniles. Ingesta particle size is a valuable tool for assessing green turtle responses to seagrass declines that should be interpreted within the context of population demographics.

Marine Biology↗
USGS2023

Biophysical factors control invasive annual grass hot spots in the Mojave Desert

Invasive annual grasses can promote ecosystem state changes and habitat loss in the American Southwest. Non-native annual grasses such as Bromus spp . a nd Schismus spp. have invaded the Mojave Desert and degraded habitat through increased fire occurrence, severity, and shifting plant community composition. Thus, it is important to identify and characterize the areas where persistent invasion has occurred, identifying where subsequent habitat degradation has increased. Previous plot and landscape-scale analyses have revealed anthropogenic and biophysical correlates with the establishment and dominance of invasive annual grasses in the Mojave Desert. However, these studies have been limited in spatial and temporal scales. Here we use Landsat imagery validated using an extensive network of plot data to map persistent and productive populations of invasive annual grass, called hot spots , across the entire Mojave Desert ecoregion over 12 years (2009–2020). We also identify important variables for predicting hot spot distribution using the Random Forest algorithm and identifying the most invaded subregions. We identified hot spots in over 5% of the Mojave Desert mostly on the western and eastern edges of the ecoregion, and invasive grasses were detected in over 90% of the Mojave Desert at least once in that time. Across the entire Mojave Desert, our results indicate that soil texture, aspect, winter precipitation, and elevation are the highest-ranking predictive variables of invasive grass hot spots , while anthropogenic variables contributed the least to the accuracy of the predictive model. The total area covered by hot spots varied significantly among subregions of the Mojave Desert. We found that anthropogenic variables became more important in explaining invasive annual establishment and persistence as spatial scale was reduced to the subregional level. Our findings have important implications for informing where land management actions can prioritize reducing invasive annual persistence and promoting restoration efforts.

California↗
USGS2018

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. Here, we show how geographic profiling – a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology – can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime, using data from an eight-year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe that in total includes more than 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. Using a subset of these data for which the illegal hunters’ identities are known, we show that the model can successfully identify the illegal hunters’ home villages using the spatial locations of hunting incidences (for example, snares) as input, and show how this can be improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the Conservancy to reflect the fact that – although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the Conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside (in criminology, ‘commuter crime’). The results of this analysis – combined with rigorous simulations – show for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns – for example, where landscape heterogeneity means that some parts of the study area are unsuitable (e.g. aquatic areas for terrestrial animals, or vice versa), or where landscape permeability differs (for example, forest bats tending not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target anti-poaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently, with important implications for the development of management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2014

Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration

Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high-elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high-elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high-elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high-elevation species to climatic changes.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Kansas;Montana;N↗
USGS2024

Population increases of the threatened American burying beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) linked to large-scale collaborations in a working lands ecoregion

Woody plant encroachment and row-crop agricultural land conversion are existential threats to species that rely on grassland ecosystems. The American Burying Beetle ( Nicrophorus americanus ) is a threatened species whose largest remnant populations are predominantly located in grassland ecoregions comprised of privately-owned ranching lands. Here, we seek to determine functional scaling patterns and population trends of the American Burying Beetle in the face of conservation threats and grassland restoration. We used 13 years (2007–2019) of American Burying Beetle abundance data collected from permanent sampling locations across the Loess Canyons ecoregion (Nebraska, USA), where a network of ranchers have been restoring large-scale grasslands. To estimate beetle abundance relative to land cover variables, we developed a Bayesian N-mixture model, incorporating the Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS) method to probabilistically determine at which scales land cover variables best explained beetle abundance. American Burying Beetle abundance exhibited high interannual variation but overall significantly increased across the ecoregion. Increases in beetle abundance were associated with large-scale (1149 ha extent) grassland cover. Decreases in abundance were associated with large-scale crop conversion (590 ha extent) and large-scale increases in woody cover (1149 ha extent). This study provides the first evidence of ecoregion-scale population increases of the American Burying Beetle. These increases are tied to landscape variables that are managed in a large-scale, coordinated private lands grassland restoration effort. Our results suggest that successful grassland restoration will depend on coordinating across property boundaries to implement conservation at scales necessary to conserve species that require large-scale, unfragmented grasslands.

Nebraska↗
USGS2010

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chloro-phyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six-or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗