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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Early season tropical cyclones affect birds breeding on a barrier island

Animal populations often experience acute natural disturbances, most of which are connected to short—term weather events. Occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones during the peak of the avian breeding season are likely to increase with climate change, which can substantially impact populations of coastal breeding birds at multiple scales. To understand the acute impacts of severe tropical cyclones, we investigated how abundances of breeding birds changed before and after 4 early season named tropical cyclones on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico. We detected a change in pre— versus post—storm numbers of breeding birds after 2 out of 4 storms between 2015–2020. Following Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Barry, significant declines in breeding adults ranged from a reduction of 32 Willets ( Tringa semipalmata ) to 105 Wilson’s Plover ( Anarhynchus wilsoni a) and 18 Willets to 1,794 Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ), respectively. The lack of response following 2 storms was likely due to the location of the storms relative to the island. Following the 2 storms that did elicit a response by breeding birds, we observed lower abundances in the majority of species after the storm passed. Species life histories and habitat restoration might explain the species—specific responses we observed. Our study documents occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones negatively affecting coastal breeding birds, which could be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, our findings may provide insights regarding island design and nest susceptibility to flooding events, which may aid land managers as well as conservation and restoration planners.

Louisiana↗
USGS2018

Designing a protected area to safeguard imperiled species from urbanization

Reserve design is a process that can address ecological, social, and political factors to identify parcels of land needed to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Acquisition of parcels for a large terrestrial reserve is difficult because it typically occurs over a long timeframe and thus invokes consideration of future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. In central Florida, a new protected area, the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge, has been authorized by the United States Government. The new refuge will host important threatened and endangered species and habitats, as well as be located to allow for species adaptation from climate change impacts. For this study we combined habitat objectives defined by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and projections from two urbanization models to provide guidance for Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge design. We used Marxan with Zones to find near-optimal solutions for protecting explicit amounts of five target habitats. We identified parcels for inclusion into the reserve design that the model allocated among two zones representing different methods of protection: fee-simple purchase (up to 20,234 hectares authorized by the United States government), and conservation easement agreements (up to 40,469 hectares authorized). As expected, for all scenarios we found an increase in costs as the proportion of fee-simple purchases was increased, reflecting the lesser cost of easements, but the number of parcels required for protection differed little among scenarios. The two urbanization models showed considerable agreement over which habitat patches were not forecast to be developed, and showed some agreement over which parcels might be developed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service may benefit from focusing on parcels that are selected frequently by our analyses under both urban scenarios because these parcels are more likely to be in areas where urbanization threats and demand for land is reduced. The reserve designs we generated met U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service habitat goals within fee and easement zone restrictions, and we found reserve configurations that fell well below the mandated size limit.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2018

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin, U.S.A.

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the United States’ High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗
USGS2018

Agriculture

Agricultural production is a fundamental activity conducted on 45% of the U.S. land area, 55% of Mexico’s land area, and 7% of Canada’s land area (World Bank 2016). Because of this vast spatial extent and the strong role that land management plays in how agricultural ecosystems function, agricultural lands and activities represent a large portion of the North American carbon budget. Accordingly, improved quantification of the agricultural carbon cycle, new trends in agriculture, and added opportunities for emissions reductions provide a critical foundation for considering the relationships between agriculture and carbon cycling at local, regional, continental, and global scales. More than 145 countries have specifically included agriculture in their targets and actions for mitigating climate change (FAO 2016), and agriculture has featured particularly prominently in recent target and action commitments made by developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015). Conversion of vast native forest and prairie to agriculture across North America between 1860 and 1960 resulted in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes to the atmosphere from biota and soils that exceeded those from fossil fuel emissions over the same period (Houghton et al., 1983). Correspondingly, soil organic carbon (SOC) declined in many soils during the 50 years following conversion from native ecosystems to production agriculture (Huggins et al., 1998; Janzen et al., 1998; Slobodian et al., 2002). Crop yields and corresponding above- and belowground biomass have steadily increased since the 1930s due to genetic and management innovations, which provide more organic input from which to build SOC ( Johnson et al., 2006; Hatfield and Walthall 2015). This, coupled with improved input-use efficiencies may reduce GHG-emissions per unit yield (GHG intensity), with additional improvements possible through management optimization (Grassini and Cassman 2012; Pittelkow et al., 2015). Options include reducing tillage, integrating perennials onto the landscape, reducing or eliminating bare-fallow land (i.e., land without living plants), adding cover crops, and enrolling lands in conservation easement programs. These options, originally proposed to control erosion, have potential co-benefits in terms of increased soil health, plant productivity, and soil carbon stabilization (Lehman et al., 2015). Conversely, returning lands previously enrolled in conservation easements (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program [CRP] and other land set-aside efforts) to row-crop production, tillage, or aggressive harvesting of crop residues all risk degrading soil quality and exacerbating SOC loss. Of note is that the net results of land use and land management practices in an agricultural setting vary according to many factors, such as crop or production system type, soil type, climate, and the collection of practices at any given site. For example, many traditional practices followed by Indigenous people on tribal lands are based on an integrated approach to natural resource management and response to environmental change that may provide agricultural options uniquely suited to varied environmental settings (see Ch. 7: Tribal Lands, p. 303). Agricultural land in the United States totaled 408.2 million hectares (ha) in 2014, of which 251 million ha were in permanent meadows and pastures, 152.2 million ha were in arable land, and 2.6 million ha were in permanent crops (FAOSTAT 2016). Compared with the distribution in 2007, these numbers reflect a 4.7 million ha decline in total agricultural lands, driven by declines in arable land and permanent crops but partially offset by a modest increase in permanent meadows and pastures. Although arable lands have been declining, the combined acreage of the four major crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton) has risen slightly, with increases in land planted in corn and soybeans and decreases in cotton and wheat (see Figure 5.1, p. 232). Despite the overall slight decline in agricultural land area, the value of U.S. agricultural production rose over the past decade as a result of increased production efficiency and higher prices (USDA 2017a; see also www.ers.usda.gov). Canada has about 65 million ha of agricultural land, of which about 46 million ha are arable, accounting for only about 7% of the country’s total land area (FAOSTAT 2017). Prominent crops on Canada’s arable lands include cereals (e.g., wheat, barley, and maize), oilseeds (e.g., canola and soybeans), and pulses (e.g., peas and lentils). Natural and seeded pastures available for grazing in Canada make up about 20 million ha (Legesse et al., 2016). Agricultural land in Mexico makes up 107 million ha, of which 23 million ha are arable land, 2.7 million ha are permanent crops, and 81 million ha are permanent meadows and pastures (FAOSTAT 2017). Mexico’s major crops are fruits, corn, grains, vegetables, and sugarcane.

Report↗
USGS1988

Methane hydrate - A major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere?

Methane hydrates are solids composed of rigid cages of water molecules that enclose methane. Sediment containing methane hydrates is found within specific pressure-temperature conditions that occur in regions of permafrost and beneath the sea in outer continental margins. Because methane hydrates are globally widespread and concentrate methane within the gas-hydrate structure, the potential amount of methane present in the shallow geosphere at subsurface depths of < ???2000 m is very large. However, estimates of the amount are speculative and range over about three orders of magnitude, from 2 ?? 103 to 4 ?? 106 Gt (gigatons = 1015 g) of carbon, depending on the assumptions made. The estimate I favor is ??? 1 ?? 104 Gt of carbon. The estimated amount of organic carbon in the methane-hydrate reservoir greatly exceeds that in many other reservoirs of the global carbon cycle - for example, the atmosphere (3.6 Gt); terrestrial biota (830 Gt); terrestrial soil, detritus and peat (1960 Gt); marine biota (3 Gt); and marine dissolved materials (980 Gt). In fact, the amount of carbon may exceed that in all fossil fuel deposits (5 ?? 103 Gt). Because methane hydrates contain so much methane and occur in the shallow geosphere, they are of interest as a potential resource of natural gas and as a possible source of atmospheric methane released by global warming. As a potential resource, methane hydrates pose both engineering and production problems. As a contributor to a changing global climate, destabilized methane hydrates, particularly those in shallow, nearshore regions of the Arctic Ocean, may have some effect, but this effect will probably be minimal, at least during the next 100 years. ?? 1988.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2020

The Landsat Burned Area algorithm and products for the conterminous United States

Complete and accurate burned area map data are needed to document spatial and temporal patterns of fires, to quantify their drivers, and to assess the impacts on human and natural systems. In this study, we developed the Landsat Burned Area (BA) algorithm, an update from the Landsat Burned Area Essential Climate Variable (BAECV) algorithm. Here, we present the BA algorithm and products, changes relative to the BAECV algorithm and products, and updated validation metrics. We also present spatial and temporal patterns of burned area across the conterminous U.S., how burned area varies in relation to the number of operational Landsat sensors, and a comparison with other burned area datasets, including the BAECV, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), GeoMAC, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1.006 data. The BA algorithm identifies burned areas in analysis ready data (ARD) time-series of Landsat imagery from 1984 through 2018 using machine learning, thresholding, and image segmentation. Validation with reference data from high-resolution commercial satellite imagery resulted in omission and commission error rates averaging 19% and 41%, respectively. In comparison, validation with Landsat reference data had omission and commission error rates averaging 40% and 28%, respectively when burned areas in cultivated crops and pasture/hay land-cover types were excluded. Both validation tests documented lower commission error rates relative to the BAECV products. The amount of burned area detected varies not only in response to climate but also with the number of operational sensors and scenes collected. The combined amount of burned area detected by multiple sensors was larger than from any individual sensor, but there was no significant difference between individual sensors. Therefore, we used BA products from individual sensors to assess trends over time and all available sensors to compare with other existing BA products. From 1984 through 2018, annual burned area averaged 30,000 km2, ranged between 14,000 km2 in 1991 and 46,500 km2 in 2012, and increased over time at a rate of 356 km2/year. Compared to existing burned area products, the new Landsat BA products identified 29% more burned area than the BAECV products (1984–2015), 183% more than the MTBS/GeoMAC products (1984–2018), and 56% more than the MCD64A1.006 products (2003–2018). The products had similar patterns of year-to-year variability; the R2 values of linear regressions between annual burned area were >0.70 with the BAECV products and the MTBS/GeoMAC products, but somewhat lower for the MCD64A1.006 product (R2 = 0.66). The BA products are routinely produced as new Landsat data are collected and provide a unique data source to monitor and assess the spatial and temporal patterns and the impacts of fire.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2025

Satellite-based evidence of recent decline in global forest recovery rate from tree mortality events

Climate-driven forest mortality events have been extensively observed in recent decades, prompting the question of how quickly these affected forests can recover their functionality following such events. Here we assessed forest recovery in vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy water content (normalized difference infrared index) for 1,699 well-documented forest mortality events across 1,600 sites worldwide. By analysing 158,427 Landsat surface reflectance images sampled from these sites, we provided a global assessment on the time required for impacted forests to return to their pre-mortality state (recovery time). Our findings reveal a consistent decline in global forest recovery rate over the past decades indicated by both greenness and canopy water content. This decline is particularly noticeable since the 1990s. Further analysis on underlying mechanisms suggests that this reduction in global forest recovery rates is primarily associated with rising temperatures and increased water scarcity, while the escalation in the severity of forest mortality contributes only partially to this reduction. Moreover, our global-scale analysis reveals that the recovery of forest canopy water content lags significantly behind that of vegetation greenness, implying that vegetation indices based solely on greenness can overestimate post-mortality recovery rates globally. Our findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of forest ecosystems to future warming and water insufficiency, accentuating the need to prioritize forest conservation and restoration as an integral component of efforts to mitigate climate change impacts.

Nature Plants↗
USGS2024

Secondary contact erodes Pleistocene diversification in a wide-ranging freshwater mussel (Quadrula)

The isolated river drainages of eastern North America serve as a natural laboratory to investigate the roles of allopatry and secondary contact in the evolutionary trajectories of recently diverged lineages. Drainage divides facilitate allopatric speciation, but due to their sensitivity to climatic and geomorphological changes, neighboring rivers frequently coalesce, creating recurrent opportunities of isolation and contact throughout the history of aquatic lineages. The freshwater mussel Quadrula quadrula is widely distributed across isolated rivers of eastern North America and possesses high phenotypic and molecular variation across its range. We integrate sequence data from three genomes, including female- and male-inherited mitochondrial markers and thousands of nuclear encoded SNPs with morphology and geography to illuminate the group's divergence history. Across contemporary isolated rivers, we found continuums of molecular and morphological variation, following a pattern of isolation by distance. In contact zones, hybridization was frequent with no apparent fitness consequences, as advanced hybrids were common. Accordingly, we recognize Q. quadrula as a single cohesive species with subspecific variation ( Q. quadrula rumphiana ). Demographic modeling and divergence dating supported a divergence history characterized by allopatric vicariance followed by secondary contact, likely driven by river rearrangements and Pleistocene glacial cycles. Despite clinal range-wide variation and hybridization in contact zones, the process-based species delimitation tool delimitR, which considers demographic scenarios like secondary contact, supported the delimitation of the maximum number of species tested. As such, when interpreting species delimitation results, we suggest careful consideration of spatial sampling and subsequent geographic patterns of biological variation, particularly for wide-ranging taxa.

eastern North America↗
USGS2016

Volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i—Hydrogeology, water budgets, and conceptual models

Hawai‘i’s aquifers have limited capacity to store fresh groundwater because each island is small and surrounded by saltwater. Saltwater also underlies much of the fresh groundwater. Fresh groundwater resources are, therefore, particularly vulnerable to human activity, short-term climate cycles, and long-term climate change. Availability of fresh groundwater for human use is constrained by the degree to which the impacts of withdrawal—such as lowering of the water table, saltwater intrusion, and reduction in the natural discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps—are deemed acceptable. This report describes the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater budgets (inflows and outflows), conceptual models of groundwater occurrence and movement, and the factors limiting groundwater availability for the largest and most populated of the Hawaiian Islands—Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island. The bulk of each of Hawai‘i’s islands is built of many thin lava flows erupted from shield volcanoes; the great piles of lava flows form highly permeable aquifers. In some areas, low-permeability dikes cutting across the lava flows, or low-permeability ash and soil horizons interlayered with the lava flows, can substantially alter groundwater flow. On some islands, sedimentary rocks form thick semiconfining coastal-plain deposits, locally known as caprock, that impede natural groundwater discharge to the ocean. In some regions, thick lava flows that ponded in preexisting depressions form aquifers that are much less permeable than aquifers formed by thin lava flows. Fresh groundwater inflow to Hawai‘i’s aquifers comes from recharge. For predevelopment conditions (1870), estimates of groundwater recharge from this study are 871, 675, 1,279, and 5,291 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Estimates of recharge for recent conditions (2010 land cover and 1978–2007 rainfall for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui; 2008 land cover and 1916–1983 rainfall for Hawai‘i Island) are 875, 660, 1,308, and 6,595 Mgal/d for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Recent recharge values differ from predevelopment recharge values by only a few percent for all islands except Hawai‘i Island, where changes in forest cover affected recharge. Spatial distribution of recharge mimics the orographic rainfall pattern—recharge is high on windward slopes and mountain peaks below the top of the trade-wind inversion. Human activity such as irrigation also contributes to recharge in some areas. Outflows from Hawai‘i’s aquifers include withdrawals from wells and natural groundwater discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps. Under predevelopment conditions, groundwater withdrawal is assumed to be negligible and natural groundwater discharge probably was equal, or close, to recharge. Under recent conditions (2000–2010), groundwater withdrawal averaged 19, 209, 104, and 103 Mgal/d on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. If recent withdrawal and recharge rates are maintained until steady state is achieved, natural groundwater discharge will be reduced by an amount equal to the withdrawal rate. Total recent withdrawal for the four islands is only about 5 percent of total recharge, but about half of the withdrawal comes from O‘ahu, whereas O‘ahu receives only 7 percent of the total recharge. Effects of high withdrawals on O‘ahu cannot be mitigated by the lower withdrawals on other islands because no freshwater flows between islands. Even within an island, high withdrawals from one area cannot be completely mitigated by recharge in another area. Water-level, saltwater/freshwater-transition-zone, spring, and stream base-flow data indicate an overall reduction in storage for most areas where groundwater has been developed. Groundwater occurrence and movement in Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers can be described in terms of four conceptual models: (1) fresh groundwater lenses in high-permeability lava-flow aquifers, (2) aquifers with groundwater impounded by dikes, (3) thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, and (4) perched aquifers. In Hawai‘i, most fresh groundwater withdrawn for human use comes from freshwater lenses in the dike-free high-permeability lava-flow aquifers where the principal limiting factor to groundwater availability is saltwater intrusion, but impacts of reduced natural groundwater discharge may also limit availability. Dike-impounded groundwater is common near the center of Hawaiian shield volcanoes, where water moves and is stored in permeable lava flows between the dikes; groundwater availability in these aquifers is primarily limited by storage depletion and reduction of flow to adjacent aquifers and natural groundwater discharge. Thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers have been identified on Kaua‘i and Maui; groundwater availability is primarily limited by streamflow depletion and water-table decline. Perched groundwater is postulated to exist in some areas of Hawai‘i, but store much less water than other modes ofgroundwater occurrence. Limits on groundwater availability in perched aquifers include the potential of reducing inflow to other groundwater settings and reducing natural discharge and stream seepage. Some groundwater bodies in Hawai‘i are enigmatic; consequences of groundwater development in these bodies and their relation to groundwater availability are not completely understood.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2018

Assessing effects of nonnative crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of nonnative predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of nonnative species. We examined the effect of nonnative crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.

California↗
USGS2021

Food, culture and climate

The Social Sciences Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is one of multiple Interagency Groups that support the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). USGCRP began as a Presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress through the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 “to assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.” USGCRP is overseen by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, composed of representatives from each of USGCRP’s 13 member agencies. The mission of the SSCC is to foster the integration of the methods, findings, and disciplinary perspectives of the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, along with interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches that include these sciences, into USGCRP activities. The SSCC serves as a social science resource to other USGCRP interagency working groups, the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, and other USGCRP activities such as the National Climate Assessment. The SSCC’s Food, Culture, and Climate webinar series (held from September 14 to October 12, 2021) highlighted the ways in which social science research can elucidate the role of climate change in socio-cultural systems. It drew attention to the humanistic frameworks that underpin social scientific understanding of the ways individuals, households, and communities experience climate change. In particular, the seminars explored how the impacts of climate change are felt and understood by individuals and communities, how they interact with other stressors, and how they amplify existing inequities and vulnerabilities. This understanding is vital not only to the production of scientific knowledge, but also to the use of that knowledge in practice. This report provides a summary of the key takeaways from this webinar series. The webinar series organizers identified recurrent themes and salient points that emerged in conversations across the three events. Here, central issues of the discussions on the relationships among food, culture, and climate, as well as the role that social science plays in elucidating them, are synthesized and highlighted. Recordings of the webinar series are available online from USGCRP.

Webinar Series Report↗
USGS2018

Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The U.S. Pacific Islands are culturally and environmentally diverse, treasured by the 1.9 million people who call them home. Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their exposure and isolation, small size, low elevation (in the case of atolls), and concentration of infrastructure and economy along the coasts. A prevalent cause of year-to-year changes in climate patterns around the globe and in the Pacific Islands region is the El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO can dramatically affect precipitation, air and ocean temperature, sea surface height, storminess, wave size, and trade winds. It is unknown exactly how the timing and intensity of ENSO will continue to change in the coming decades, but recent climate model results suggest a doubling in frequency of both El Niño and La Niña extremes in this century as compared to the 20th century under scenarios with more warming, including the higher scenario (RCP8.5). On islands, all natural sources of freshwater come from rainfall received within their limited land areas. Severe droughts are common, making water shortage one of the most important climate-related risks in the region. As temperature continues to rise and cloud cover decreases in some areas, evaporation is expected to increase, causing both reduced water supply and higher water demand. Streamflow in Hawai‘i has declined over approximately the past 100 years, consistent with observed decreases in rainfall. The impacts of sea level rise in the Pacific include coastal erosion, episodic flooding, permanent inundation, heightened exposure to marine hazards, and saltwater intrusion to surface water and groundwater systems. Sea level rise will disproportionately affect the tropical Pacific and potentially exceed the global average. Invasive species , landscape change, habitat alteration, and reduced resilience have resulted in extinctions and diminished ecosystem function. Inundation of atolls in the coming decades is projected to impact existing on-island ecosystems. Wildlife that relies on coastal habitats will likely also be severely impacted. In Hawaiʻi, coral reefs contribute an estimated $477 million to the local economy every year. Under projected warming of approximately 0.5°F per decade, all nearshore coral reefs in the Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands region will experience annual bleaching before 2050. An ecosystem -based approach to international management of open ocean fisheries in the Pacific that incorporates climate-informed catch limits is expected to produce more realistic future harvest levels and enhance ecosystem resilience. Indigenous communities of the Pacific derive their sense of identity from the islands. Emerging issues for Indigenous communities of the Pacific include the resilience of marine-managed areas and climate-induced human migration from their traditional lands. The rich body of traditional knowledge is place-based and localized and is useful in adaptation planning because it builds on intergenerational sharing of observations. Documenting the kinds of governance structures or decision-making hierarchies created for management of these lands and waters is also important as a learning tool that can be shared with other island communities. Across the region, groups are coming together to minimize damage and disruption from coastal flooding and inundation as well as other climate-related impacts. Social cohesion is already strong in many communities, making it possible to work together to take action. Early intervention can lower economic, environmental, social, and cultural costs and reduce or prevent conflict and displacement from ancestral land and resources.

Report↗
USGS2005

Gulf of Mexico Integrated Science - Tampa Bay Study - Historical and Prehistorical Record of Tampa Bay Environments

To study how Tampa Bay, Florida, has changed over time, the prehistorical conditions and natural variations in the bay environment are being evaluated. These variations can be tracked by examining the sediments that have accumulated in and around the bay. The prehistorical record, which pre-dates settlers' arrival in the Tampa Bay area around 1850, provides a baseline with which to compare and evaluate the magnitude and effects of sea-level, climate, biological, geochemical, and man-made changes. These data also are valuable for planning and conducting projects aimed at restoring wetlands and other estuarine habitats to their original state. In addition, the data provide a basis for judging efforts to improve the health of the bay.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Submerged aquatic vegetation mapping in coastal Louisiana through development of a spatial likelihood occurrence (SLOO) model

Determining the spatial distribution of coastal foundation species is essential to accurately determine restoration goals, predict the ecological effects of climate change, and develop habitat management strategies. Mapping the distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) species assemblages, which provide important habitat resource and ecological services in Louisiana, has been difficult due to the dynamic nature of SAV occurrence and the limited water clarity across much of the coast. Species distribution models (SDMs) link ecological conditions species occurrence across landscapes, and can predict the distribution of species across un-sampled or hard to sample areas and support the development of habitat maps. To predict SAV distribution in coastal Louisiana, a SDM was developed and projected across the landscape to create a spatial likelihood of occurrence (SLOO) model describing the probability of SAV presence in aquatic habitats. SAV presence and absence data were examined from over 500 field observations in relation to physical and hydrologic variables, including exposure, turbidity, water level, and salinity. A binary logistic regression model (p < 0.0001) identified three significant predictors of SAV presence: mean winter salinity, exposure, and turbidity. As each of these variables increased, the probability of SAV presence in the summer growing season decreased. The spatial application of this SDM helps to predict the likelihood of occurrence across the coastal landscape, creating a valuable tool to describe un-sampled SAV habitat and estimate future changes in habitat availability.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Microbiomes associated with avian malaria survival differ between susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers and sympatric malaria-resistant introduced birds

Of the estimated 55 Hawaiian honeycreepers (subfamily Carduelinae) only 17 species remain, nine of which the International Union for Conservation of Nature considers endangered. Among the most pressing threats to honeycreeper survival is avian malaria, caused by the introduced blood parasite Plasmodium relictum , which is increasing in distribution in Hawaiʻi as a result of climate change. Preventing further honeycreeper decline will require innovative conservation strategies that confront malaria from multiple angles. Research on mammals has revealed strong connections between gut microbiome composition and malaria susceptibility, illuminating a potential novel approach to malaria control through the manipulation of gut microbiota. One honeycreeper species, Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ), persists in areas of high malaria prevalence, indicating they have acquired some level of immunity. To investigate if avian host-specific microbes may be associated with malaria survival, we characterized cloacal microbiomes and malaria infection for 174 ʻamakihi and 172 malaria-resistant warbling white-eyes ( Zosterops japonicus ) from Hawaiʻi Island using 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Neither microbial alpha nor beta diversity covaried with infection, but 149 microbes showed positive associations with malaria survivors. Among these were Escherichia and Lactobacillus spp . , which appear to mitigate malaria severity in mammalian hosts, revealing promising candidates for future probiotic research for augmenting malaria immunity in sensitive endangered species.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Connecting dryland fine-fuel assessments to wildfire exposure and natural resource values at risk

Background Wildland fire in arid and semi-arid (dryland) regions can intensify when climatic, biophysical, and land-use factors increase fuel load and continuity. To inform wildland fire management under these conditions, we developed high-resolution (10-m) estimates of fine fuel across the Altar Valley in southern Arizona, USA, which spans dryland, grass-dominated ecosystems that are administered by multiple land managers and owners. We coupled field measurements at the end of the 2021 growing season with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and vegetation indices acquired during and after the growing season to develop predictions of fine fuel across the entire valley. We then assessed how climate, soil, vegetation, and land-use factors influenced the amount and distribution of fine fuels. We connected fine fuels to fire management points, past ignition history, and socio-economic vulnerability to evaluate wildfire exposure and assessed how fuel related to habitat of the endangered masked bobwhite quail ( Colinus virginianus ridgwayi ). Results The high amount of fine fuel (400–3600 kg/ha; mean = 1392 kg/ha) predicted by our remote sensing model ( R 2 = 0.63) for 2021 compared to previous years in the valley was stimulated by near-record high growing season precipitation that was 177% of the 1990–2020 mean. Fine fuel increased across the valley if it was contained within the wildlife refuge boundary and had lower temperature and vapor pressure deficit, higher soil organic content, and abundant annual plants and an invasive perennial grass ( R 2 = 0.24). The index of potential exposure to wildfire showed a clustering of high exposure centered around roads and low-density housing development distant from fire management points and extending into the upper elevations flanking the valley. Within the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, fine fuel increased with habitat suitability for the masked bobwhite quail within and adjacent to core habitat areas, representing a natural resource value at risk, accompanied with higher overall mean fine fuel (1672 kg/ha) in relation to 2015 (1347 kg/ha) and 2020 (1363 kg/ha) means. Conclusions By connecting high-resolution estimates of fine fuel to climatic, biophysical and land-use factors, wildfire exposure, and a natural resource value at risk, we provide a pro-active and adaptive framework for fire risk management within highly variable and rapidly changing dryland landscapes.

Arizona↗
USGS2010

Changes in streamflow and the flux of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin, USA, 1980-2007

Nutrients and freshwater delivered by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers drive algal production in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which eventually results in the widespread occurrence of hypoxic bottom waters along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Researchers have demonstrated a relation between the extent of the hypoxic zone and the magnitude of streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi River, with springtime streamflows and fluxes being the most predictive. In 1999 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the flux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at selected sites in the Mississippi Basin and to the Gulf of Mexico for 1980-1996. These flux estimates provided the baseline information used by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force to develop an Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary goal of the Action Plan was to achieve a reduction in the size (areal extent) of the hypoxic zone from an average of approximately 14,000 square kilometers in 1996-2000 to a 5-year moving average of less than 5,000 square kilometers by 2015. Improved statistical models and adjusted maximum likelihood estimation using USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) software were used to estimate annual and seasonal nutrient fluxes for 1980-2007 at selected sites on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. These data provide a means to evaluate the influence of natural and anthropogenic effects on delivery of water and nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico; to define subbasins that are the most important contributors of nutrients to the gulf; and to investigate the relations among streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and the size and duration of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A comparative analysis between the baseline period of 1980-1996 and 5-year moving averages thereafter indicate that the average annual streamflow and fluxes of total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, and silica to the Gulf of Mexico have decreased. However, the flux of total phosphorus between the baseline period and subsequent 5-year periods has increased. The average spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and fluxes of silica, total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphate to the Gulf of Mexico also decreased, whereas the spring flux of total phosphorus has increased. Similar changes in streamflow and nutrient flux were observed at many sites Buxtonwithin the basin. The inputs of water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the major subbasins of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin as a percentage of the to-the-gulf totals have increased from the Ohio River Basin, decreased from the Missouri River Basin, and remained relatively unchanged from the Upper Mississippi, Red, and Arkansas River Basins. Changes in streamflow and nutrient fluxes are related, but short-term variations in sources of streamflow and nutrients complicate the interpretation of factors that affect nutrient delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. Parametric time-series models are used to try and separate natural variability in nutrient flux from changes due to other causes. Results indicate that the decrease in annual nutrient fluxes that has occurred between the 1980-1996 baseline period and more recent years can be largely attributed to natural causes (climate and streamflow) and not management actions or other human controlled activities in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. The downward trends in total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate that were detected at either the Mississippi River near St. Francisville, La., or the Atchafalaya River at Melville, La., occurred prior to 1995. In spite of the general decrease in nutrient flux, the average size of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone has increased between 1997 and 2007. The reasons for this are not clear but could be due to the type or nature of nutrient delivery. Whereas the annual flux of total nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, the proporti

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