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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Ostracode-based reconstruction from 23,300 to about 20,250 cal yr BP of climate, and paleohydrology of a groundwater-fed pond near St. Louis, Missouri

The water chemistry of a groundwater-fed sinkhole-pond near St. Louis, Missouri, and its associated climate during the last glaciation are reconstructed by comparison with autecological data of modern ostracodes from about 5,500 sites in Canada. A 4.8-m succession of fossiliferous sediment yielded ostracode assemblages that collectively are generally found today in ponds in North America including the species Cyclocypris ampla, C. laevis, Cypridopsis vidua, Candona crogmaniana, C. distincta, and C. ohioensis. Fossils of Picea needles and the ostracode Cyclocypris sharpei imply that best analog sites for the succession are in central to south-central Canada. The pond formed 23,300 ?? 400 cal yr BP when a sinkhole became plugged by a clay bed about 1 m thick. By about 20,250 cal yr BP, the pond had desiccated and was buried by loess. The sediment accumulation rate was about 0.18 cm/yr, and each sample interval (6 cm) represents a time slice of ???33 years. Data from this record provides the first fairly high resolution proxy record of the glacial paleoclimate of the mid-latitude of North America. The analog data indicate the water in the hydrologically-open spring-fed pond was less than 1 m deep. The paleoclimatic reconstructions imply gradually drier conditions and uniform, cool temperatures. The shallow water depth indicates that the temperature reconstruction is robust with mean annual temperatures (MATs) that ranged between 0.8 and 3.9??C, and mean July temperatures that ranged from 16.8 and 18.1??C. Other estimated climatic parameters include mean annual precipitation (MAP; 430 to 840 mm/yr), and moisture balance (P-E; -111 to 298 mm/yr). Compared to values measured today at St. Louis, the MAP was about 400 mm less, MAT about 10??C cooler, and P-E, about the same. These values are consistent with other published reconstructions based on modern analog analysis of fossil beetles and pollen, and paleothermometry based on amino acid racemization. The total dissolved solids (TDS) progressively increased from about 87 to 431 mg/L. Changes in TDS reflect either the balance between the relative inputs of karst groundwater and overland flow, or changes in the duration of water-rock interaction associated with the groundwater. The postulated long-term 900 ?? 200 year cyclicity of growing-season moisture and temperature, attributed to El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles, is not expressed in the reconstructed hydrologic or climatic data. This is attributed, in part, to the mediating effect on temperature by monothermic groundwater input to this flow-through system.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗
USGS2003

100 years of Pb deposition and transport in soils in Champaign, Illinois, U.S.A

In Illinois, atmospheric deposition is one major source of heavy metal inputs to agricultural land. The atmospheric Pb deposition and transport record in agricultural soils in Champaign, Illinois, was established by studying surface and subsurface soil samples collected during the past 100 years from the Morrow Plots on the campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The Pb content in the soil samples was measured and the Ph deposition fluxes were calculated. The Pb content in surface soils increased sharply in the first half of the 20th century, and stayed invariant since. The maximum Pb flux from the atmosphere was estimated to be 27 (??14) ??g cm-2 yr-1 around 1940. The major pollution source for this increase probably was residential coal burning. It was estimated that in 50 yr, more than 50% of the Pb input had been lost from the surface soils.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗
USGS2000

The potential for calcium depletion in forest ecosystems of southeastern United States: Review and analysis

Biogeochemical mass balance assessments of calcium status in southeastern forests indicate that losses through harvesting and soil leaching often exceed inputs from atmospheric deposition and weathering. Many forest soils of the southeastern United States are particularly sensitive because these soils and the underlying saprolite from which these soils are derived are largely depleted of weatherable calcium. At most of the intensively studied sites in the southeastern United States, it is estimated that calcium depletion has already reduced or will likely reduce exchangeable soil calcium reserves to less than the estimated requirement for a merchantable forest stand in 150 years or less. At most sites, calcium uptake into merchantable wood equals or exceeds soil leaching losses. Chronic atmospheric deposition of sulfate and nitrate and declining atmospheric deposition of calcium are likely to accelerate calcium depletion. The southeastern U.S. regional distribution of soil calcium pools and calcium fluxes (deposition and uptake in merchantable wood) indicates that the depletion status of the intensively studied sites is representative of a substantially larger area. Where weathering inputs are insufficient to replace leaching and uptake losses, there is a potential for a regional problem in forest nutrition over the long term.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Ma↗
USGS2000

Time-averaged fluxes of lead and fallout radionuclides to sediments in Florida Bay

Recent, unmixed sediments from mud banks of central Florida Bay were dated using 210 Pb/ 226 Ra, and chronologies were verified by comparing sediment lead temporal records with Pb/Ca ratios in annual layers of coral ( Montastrea annularis ) located on the ocean side of the Florida Keys. Dates of sediment lead peaks (1978±2) accord with prior observations of a 6 year lag between the occurrence of maximum atmospheric lead in 1972 and peak coral lead in 1978. Smaller lags of 1–2 years occur between the maximum atmospheric radionuclide fallout and peaks in sediment temporal records of 137 Cs and Pu. Such lags are consequences of system time averaging (STA) in which atmospherically delivered particle-associated constituents accumulate and mix in a (sedimentary?) reservoir before transferring to permanent sediments and coral. STA model calculations, using time-dependent atmospheric inputs, produced optimized profiles in excellent accord with measured sediment 137 Cs, Pu, lead, and coral lead distributions. Derived residence times of these particle tracers (16±1, 15.7±0.7, 19±3, and 16±2 years, respectively) are comparable despite differences in sampling locations, in accumulating media, and in element loading histories and geochemical properties. For a 16 year weighted mean residence time, STA generates the observed 6 year lead peak lag. Evidently, significant levels of nondegradable, particle-associated contaminants can persist in Florida Bay for many decades following elimination of external inputs. Present results, in combination with STA model analysis of previously reported radionuclide profiles, suggest that decade-scale time averaging may occur widely in recent coastal marine sedimentary environments.

Florida↗
USGS2002

A multiisotope C and N modeling analysis of soil organic matter turnover and transport as a function of soil depth in a California annual grassland soil chronosequence

We examine soil organic matter (SOM) turnover and transport using C and N isotopes in soil profiles sampled circa 1949, 1978, and 1998 (a period spanning pulse thermonuclear 14 C enrichment of the atmosphere) along a 3‐million‐year annual grassland soil chronosequence. Temporal differences in soil Δ 14 C profiles indicate that inputs of recently living organic matter (OM) occur primarily in the upper 20–30 cm but suggest that OM inputs can occur below the primary rooting zone. A three‐pool SOM model with downward transport captures most observed variation in Δ 14 C, percentages of C and N, δ 13 C, and δ 15 N, supporting the commonly accepted concept of three distinct SOM pools. The model suggests that the importance of the decadal SOM pool in N dynamics is greatest in young and old soils. Altered hydrology and possibly low pH and/or P dynamics in highly developed old soils cause changes in soil C and N turnover and transport of importance for soil biogeochemistry models.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2006

Dynamics of diffusive bubble growth and pressure recovery in a bubbly rhyolitic melt embedded in an elastic solid

We present a model of gas exsolution and bubble expansion in a melt supersaturated in response to a sudden pressure drop. In our model, the melt contains a suspension of gas bubbles of identical sizes and is encased in a penny-shaped crack embedded in an elastic solid. The suspension is modeled as a three-dimensional lattice of spherical cells with slight overlap, where each elementary cell consists of a gas bubble surrounded by a shell of volatile-rich melt. The melt is then subjected to a step drop in pressure, which induces gas exsolution and bubble expansion, resulting in the compression of the melt and volumetric expansion of the crack. The dynamics of diffusion-driven bubble growth and volumetric crack expansion span 9 decades in time. The model demonstrates that the speed of the crack response depends strongly on volatile diffusivity in the melt and bubble number density and is markedly sensitive to the ratio of crack thickness to crack radius and initial bubble radius but is relatively insensitive to melt viscosity. The net drop in gas concentration in the melt after pressure recovery represents only a small fraction of the initial concentration prior to the drop, suggesting the melt may undergo numerous pressure transients before becoming significantly depleted of gases. The magnitude of pressure and volume recovery in the crack depends sensitively on the size of the input-pressure transient, becoming relatively larger for smaller-size transients in a melt containing bubbles with initial radii less than 10 - 5 m. Amplification of the input transient may be large enough to disrupt the crack wall and induce brittle failure in the rock matrix surrounding the crack. Our results provide additional basis for the interpretation of volume changes in the magma conduit under Popocatépetl Volcano during Vulcanian degassing bursts in its eruptive activity in April–May 2000.

Geosciences↗
USGS2006

Modeling physical and biogeochemical controls over carbon accumulation in a boreal forest soil

Boreal soils are important to the global C cycle owing to large C stocks, repeated disturbance from fire, and the potential for permafrost thaw to expose previously stable, buried C. To evaluate the primary mechanisms responsible for both short- and long-term C accumulation in boreal soils, we developed a multi-isotope (12,14C) Soil C model with dynamic soil layers that develop through time as soil organic matter burns and reaccumulates. We then evaluated the mechanisms that control organic matter turnover in boreal regions including carbon input rates, substrate recalcitrance, soil moisture and temperature, and the presence of historical permafrost to assess the importance of these factors in boreal C accumulation. Results indicate that total C accumulation is controlled by the rate of carbon input, decomposition rates, and the presence of historical permafrost. However, unlike more temperate ecosystems, one of the key mechanisms involved in C preservation in boreal soils examined here is the cooling of subsurface soil layers as soil depth increases rather than increasing recalcitrance in subsurface soils. The propagation of the 14C bomb spike into soils also illustrates the importance of historical permafrost and twentieth century warming in contemporary boreal soil respiration fluxes. Both 14C and total C simulation data also strongly suggest that boreal SOM need not be recalcitrant to accumulate; the strong role of soil temperature controls on boreal C accumulation at our modeling test site in Manitoba, Canada, indicates that carbon in the deep organic soil horizons is probably relatively labile and thus subject to perturbations that result from changing climatic conditions in the future. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2006

Holocene history of drift ice in the northern North Atlantic: Evidence for different spatial and temporal modes

We present new high-resolution proxy data for the Holocene history of drift ice off Iceland based on the mineralogy of the <2-mm sediment fraction using quantitative X-ray diffraction. These new data, bolstered by a comparison with published proxy records, point to a long-term increasing trend in drift ice input into the North Atlantic from 6 to 5 ka toward the present day at sites influenced by the cold east Greenland Current. This feature reflects the late Holocene Neoglacial or cooling period recorded in ice cores and further terrestrial archives on Greenland. In contrast, a decrease in drift ice during the same period is recorded at sites underlying the North Atlantic Drift, which may reflect a warming of this region. The results document that Holocene changes in iceberg rafting and sea ice advection did not occur uniformly across the North Atlantic. Centennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic region over the last ???4 kyr is linked to the observed changes in drift ice input. Increased drift ice may have played a role in the increase of cold intervals during the late Holocene, e.g., the Little Ice Age cooling. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Paleoceanography↗
USGS2009

Hydrologic support of carbon dioxide flux revealed by whole-lake carbon budgets

Freshwater lakes are an important component of the global carbon cycle through both organic carbon (OC) sequestration and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission. Most lakes have a net annual loss of CO 2 to the atmosphere and substantial current evidence suggests that biologic mineralization of allochthonous OC maintains this flux. Because net CO 2 flux to the atmosphere implies net mineralization of OC within the lake ecosystem, it is also commonly assumed that net annual CO 2 emission indicates negative net ecosystem production (NEP). We explored the relationship between atmospheric CO 2 emission and NEP in two lakes known to have contrasting hydrologie characteristics and net CO 2 emission. We calculated NEP for calendar year 2004 using whole-lake OC and inorganic carbon (IC) budgets, NEP oc and NEP IC , respectively, and compared the resulting values to measured annual CO 2 flux from the lakes. In both lakes, NEP Ic and NEP Ic were positive, indicating net autotrophy. Therefore CO 2 emission from these lakes was apparently not supported by mineralization of allochthonous organic material. In both lakes, hydrologie CO 2 inputs, as well as CO 2 evolved from netcalcite precipitation, could account for the net CO 2 emission. NEP calculated from diel CO 2 measurements was also affected by hydrologie inputs of CO 2 . These results indicate that CO 2 emission and positive NEP may coincide in lakes, especially in carbonate terrain, and that all potential geologic, biogeochemical, and hydrologie sources of CO 2 need to be accounted for when using CO 2 concentrations to infer lake NEP. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2009

Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO 2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO 2 by 0.53 PgC yr &minus;1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr &minus;1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr &minus;1 , and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr &minus;1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO 2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO 2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO 2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2011

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983–1987, 1991–1997, and 2000–2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO 4 ), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual “boomerang” pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2012

Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes

Prediction of barrier-island response to hurricane attack is important for assessing the vulnerability of communities, infrastructure, habitat, and recreational assets to the impacts of storm surge, waves, and erosion. We have demonstrated that a conceptual model intended to make qualitative predictions of the type of beach response to storms (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, dune overwash, inundation) can be reformulated in a Bayesian network to make quantitative predictions of the morphologic response. In an application of this approach at Santa Rosa Island, FL, predicted dune-crest elevation changes in response to Hurricane Ivan explained about 20% to 30% of the observed variance. An extended Bayesian network based on the original conceptual model, which included dune elevations, storm surge, and swash, but with the addition of beach and dune widths as input variables, showed improved skill compared to the original model, explaining 70% of dune elevation change variance and about 60% of dune and shoreline position change variance. This probabilistic approach accurately represented prediction uncertainty (measured with the log likelihood ratio), and it outperformed the baseline prediction (i.e., the prior distribution based on the observations). Finally, sensitivity studies demonstrated that degrading the resolution of the Bayesian network or removing data from the calibration process reduced the skill of the predictions by 30% to 40%. The reduction in skill did not change conclusions regarding the relative importance of the input variables, and the extended model's skill always outperformed the original model.

Florida↗
USGS2012

Factors controlling nitrate fluxes in groundwater in agricultural areas

The impact of agricultural chemicals on groundwater quality depends on the interactions of biogeochemical and hydrologic factors. To identify key processes affecting distribution of agricultural nitrate in groundwater, a parsimonious transport model was applied at 14 sites across the U.S. Simulated vertical profiles of NO 3 - , N 2 from denitrification, O 2 , Cl - , and environmental tracers of groundwater age were matched to observations by adjusting the parameters for recharge rate, unsaturated zone travel time, fractions of N and Cl - inputs leached to groundwater, O 2 reduction rate, O 2 threshold for denitrification, and denitrification rate. Model results revealed important interactions among biogeochemical and physical factors. Chloride fluxes decreased between the land surface and water table possibly because of Cl - exports in harvested crops (averaging 22% of land-surface Cl - inputs). Modeled zero-order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification were correlated. Denitrification rates at depth commonly exceeded overlying O 2 reduction rates, likely because shallow geologic sources of reactive electron donors had been depleted. Projections indicated continued downward migration of NO 3 - fronts at sites with denitrification rates <0.25 mg-N L -1 yr -1 . The steady state depth of NO 3 - depended to a similar degree on application rate, leaching fraction, recharge, and NO 3 - and O 2 reaction rates. Steady state total mass in each aquifer depended primarily on the N application rate. In addition to managing application rates at land surface, efficient water use may reduce the depth and mass of N in groundwater because lower recharge was associated with lower N fraction leached. Management actions to reduce N leaching could be targeted over aquifers with high-recharge and low-denitrification rates.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2013

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

Geophysical Monograph↗
USGS2012

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2020

Geographic and oceanographic influences on ferromanganese crust composition along a Pacific Ocean meridional transect, 14N to 14S

The major controls on the variability of ferromanganese (FeMn) crust composition have been generally described over the past 40 years; however, most compilation studies lack quantitative statistics and are limited to a small region of several seamounts or compare FeMn crusts from disparate areas of the global oceans. This study provides the first detailed research to address the geographic and oceanographic controls of FeMn crust composition from a line of seamounts across 30° of latitude in the west central Pacific. Element concentrations from the uppermost layer (<15 mm) of 57 FeMn crusts were evaluated for statistically significant variance and correlation with a variety of oceanographic and geographic parameters. Manganese, Co, Ni, Mo, and Zn concentrations in crusts in this region are highly anticorrelated with seawater oxygen concentrations, suggesting oxygen as the dominant controlling factor for these elements. Iron instead correlates with water depth, which we attribute to increased carbonate ion concentration with increasing water depth. Silicon and Al content in crusts demonstrate a potential meridional variance of detrital inputs and sources in the region. Iron, Ba, and Mg are enriched in FeMn crusts below the equatorial upwelling zone which is related to biological productivity. Fluctuations in the four oceanographic and geographic parameters, seawater oxygen content, detrital input, surface productivity, and deep sources of iron, are robustly recorded by FeMn crusts. Modern measurements of these primary parameters, as well as paleoceanographic reconstructions, can be used to define regions of interest for FeMn crust exploration.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2020

Alkalinity in tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

Despite the important role of alkalinity in estuarine carbon cycling, the seasonal and decadal variability of alkalinity, particularly within multiple tidal tributaries of the same estuary, is poorly understood. Here we analyze more than 26,000 alkalinity measurements, mostly from the 1980s and 1990s, in the major tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, a large, coastal-plain estuary of eastern North America. The long-term means of alkalinity in tidal-fresh waters vary by a factor of 6 among seven tidal tributaries, reflecting the alkalinity of non-tidal rivers draining to these estuaries. At 25 stations, mostly in the Potomac River Estuary, we find significant long-term increasing trends that exceed the trends in the non-tidal rivers upstream of those stations. Box model calculations in the Potomac River Estuary indicate that the main cause of the estuarine trends is a declining alkalinity sink. The magnitude of this sink is consistent with a simple model of calcification by the invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea. More generally, in tidal tributaries fed by high-alkalinity non-tidal rivers, alkalinity is consumed, with sinks ranging from 8 to 27% of the upstream input. In contrast, tidal tributaries that are fed by low-alkalinity non-tidal rivers have sources of alkalinity amounting to 34 to 171% of the upstream input. For a single estuarine system, the Chesapeake Bay has diverse alkalinity dynamics and can thus serve as a laboratory for studying the numerous processes influencing alkalinity among the world’s estuaries.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2021

STEPS: Slip time earthquake path simulations applied to the San Andreas and Toe Jam Hill Faults to redefine geologic slip rate uncertainty

Geologic slip rates are a time-averaged measurement of fault displacement calculated over hundreds to million-year time scales and are a primary input for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which forecast expected ground shaking in future earthquakes. Despite their utility for seismic hazard calculations, longer-term geologic slip rates represent a time-averaged measure of the tempo of strain release and do not measure variability across earthquake cycles. We have developed a numerical approach called STEPS (Slip Time Earthquake Path Simulations), which is built upon field-based observations and explicitly incorporates realistic variations in displacement per event and variability in the recurrence interval between earthquakes. The STEPS approach, which simulates strain release through time, relies on representing earthquake cycles as stairsteps, rather than straight-line paths, connecting per earthquake time-displacement coordinates. We simulate earthquake histories based on these input constraints using two examples: the Carrizo section of the San Andreas fault and the Toe Jam Hill fault of the Seattle fault zone. We find that modeled slip rate distributions agree with slip rates reported for the sites of interest by the original investigators, while providing a slip rate distribution that reflects the variability of earthquake frequency and displacement. The STEPS approach provides an estimate of fault slip rate uncertainty based on a synthetic suite of plausible time-displacement paths resulting from individual earthquakes, rather than measurement uncertainties associated with offset features. When considering this simulated earthquake behavior between measurements, the uncertainty associated with earthquake paths is greater than that calculated by the long-term rate.

California, Washington↗