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Africa-wide monitoring of small surface water bodies using multisource satellite data: A monitoring system for FEWS NET

Continental Africa has the highest volume of water stored in wetlands, large lakes, reservoirs, and rivers, yet it suffers from problems such as water availability and access. With climate change intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering the distribution and frequency of rainfall, the problem of water availability and access will increase further. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has initiated a large-scale project to monitor small to medium surface water points in Africa. Under this project, multisource satellite data and hydrologic modeling techniques are integrated to monitor several hundreds of small to medium surface water points in Africa. This approach has been already tested to operationally monitor 41 water points in East Africa. The validation of modeled scaled depths with field-installed gauge data demonstrated the ability of the model to capture both the spatial patterns and seasonal variations. Modeled scaled estimates captured up to 60 % of the observed gauge variability with a mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 22 %. The data on relative water level, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ETo) for water points in East and West Africa were modeled since 1998 and current information is being made available in near-real time. This chapter presents the approach, results from the East African study, and the first phase of expansion activities in the West Africa region. The water point monitoring network will be further expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. The goal of this study is to provide timely information on the water availability that would support already established FEWS NET activities in Africa. This chapter also presents the potential improvements in modeling approach to be implemented during future expansion in Africa.

Book chapter↗

Resilience of benthic macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in a Catskill Mountain river, New York, USA: Implications for water quality monitoring and assessment

Changes in the timing, magnitude, frequency, and duration of extreme hydrologic events are becoming apparent and could disrupt species assemblages and stream ecosystems across the Northeastern United States. Between August 28 and 29 of 2011, an average of 31 cm of rain from Tropical Storm Irene fell across Eastern New York State in less than 24 h and caused historic flooding in numerous streams of the Catskill Mountain Region. Peak discharges exceeded the 0.01 annual exceedance probability (> 100 year flood) in many Catskill Mountain streams. Approximately one week later, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee deposited another 19 cm of rain onto saturated soils and caused additional flooding. Data from annual benthic macroinvertebrate surveys completed at 5 sites in the Upper Esopus Creek, a premier trout stream in the region, during August 2009–2011 (before the floods) were compared to data collected from the same sites in September 2011, November 2011, March 2012 and August 2012 (after the floods). The impact, rate of recovery and the factors which might affect the resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities were evaluated. The results of biological water quality assessment metrics immediately after the floods resembled those of highly polluted waters, yet severe floods were the only disturbance. Prior to the floods, standard biological assessment metrics showed that communities were not impacted and water quality was pristine. A large decrease in macroinvertebrate density was evident in the September 2011 surveys following the floods and bioassessment metrics reflected highly degraded water quality conditions. Most community metrics rebounded in 3–7 months (November 2011 and March 2012), and full recovery was evident in 12 months (August 2012) which suggests that macroinvertebrate assemblages are relatively resilient to the effects of extreme floods in these low-order streams. Therefore, macroinvertebrate samples collected from a flood-impacted stream before full recovery occurs might reflect loss of diversity and abundance from the flood disturbance and incorrectly attribute the impact to impaired water quality. The strong short-term impacts and the relatively rapid recovery of macroinvertebrate communities following catastrophic floods have important ramifications for routine bioassessment programs considering changing hydrologic regimes in streams across the Northeast and elsewhere.

New York↗

Streams, springs, and volcanic lakes for volcano monitoring

Introduction Volcanic unrest can trigger appreciable change to surface waters such as streams, springs, and volcanic lakes. Magma degassing produces gases and soluble salts that are absorbed into groundwater that feeds streams and lakes. As magma ascends, the amount of heat and degassing will increase, and so will any related geochemical and thermal signal. Subsurface magma movement can cause pressurization that alters hydrostatic head and may induce groundwater discharge. Fluid-pressure changes have been linked to distal volcano-tectonic earthquakes (White and McCausland, 2016; Coulon and others, 2017) and phreatic eruptions (for example, Yamaoka and others, 2016). Clearly, changes in groundwater and surface waters are both indicators of unrest and clues to how and where magma is rising toward the surface. Where possible, it is prudent to incorporate real-time hydrologic data into multiparameter monitoring of restless volcanoes. Hydrologic dynamics can also be tracked by changes in groundwater levels that are commonly measured in shallow boreholes (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume, on boreholes; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024). Although inferred to be common, relatively few volcano-hydrology anomalies are well documented, and many are essentially anecdotal (Newhall and others, 2001), reflecting the fact that high-resolution time series remain rare. Extreme examples include the 2008 eruption of Nevado del Huila, Colombia, where relatively minor phreatomagmatic eruptions were accompanied by expulsion of as much as 300 million cubic meters of groundwater from fissures high on the volcano (Worni and others, 2011), generating large lahars. Substantial decreases in flow rate from springs about 8 kilometers from the summit of Mayon Volcano, Philippines, have been noted before most eruptions in the 20th century (Newhall and others, 2001). Stream monitoring at Redoubt Volcano in 2009 allowed Werner and others (2012) to recognize that groundwater was unable to absorb (or scrub) the high flux of volcanic gas and that a high CO 2 /SO 2 precursor signal had been evident for 5 months prior to the eruption. A key to better interpreting hydrologic anomalies—or even identifying them—is therefore obtaining adequate baseline data. Most hydrologic monitoring at U.S. volcanoes has been accomplished by intermittent sampling surveys with annual or less frequent sampling (for example, https://hotspringchem.wr.usgs.gov/index.php ). More frequent sampling, however, generally is needed to establish reliable baselines. A recent hydrologic and hydrothermal monitoring experiment at 25 sites and 10 of the 12 level 4 (very high threat) volcanoes in the U.S. portion of the Cascade Range demonstrated that there is sufficient temporal variability in hydrothermal fluxes, even during quiescent periods, that one-time measurements will commonly have limited interpretive value (Crankshaw and others, 2018). Thus, surveys are best augmented with data from streamgages (for example, Evans and others, 2004; Bergfeld and others, 2008). Streamflow (water discharge) data allow measured temperature and specific conductance to be converted to heat and solute mass fluxes, which could be insightful parameters for detecting anomalous activity (McCleskey and others, 2012). At the Yellowstone Caldera, long-term monitoring of river solutes has allowed calculation of the chloride flux, a proxy for heat discharge (Hurwitz and others, 2007; McCleskey and others, 2016) from the subsurface magma. This is readily accomplished because data from streamgages are continuously recorded and archived by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) (USGS, 2024). Similar studies on stratovolcanoes or shield volcanoes would be scientifically useful, and yet are logistically challenging, requiring streamgages on numerous radial drainages complemented by either frequent manual sampling or numerous deployments of equipment to measure water temperature and specific conductance as a proxy for water chemistry. Another challenge is that some volcanic areas, especially shield volcanoes, are characterized by near-surface porous rocks and soils, such that surface streams are rare and replaced by distant, dilute large-volume springs with only a trace of any original volcanically sourced water (Manga, 2001; Hurwitz and others, 2021). Volcanic lakes are worthy of special attention for monitoring efforts, as their temperature and composition can provide evidence of increased flux of volatile-rich fluids from below. Quantifying changes in volatile and heat release from magma can be simpler in lakes than for volcanoes with radial drainages and no major lakes. Moreover, volcanic lakes pose a range of hazards themselves, including phreatomagmatic eruptions, debris flows, flank collapse, tsunamis, and toxic gas release (Mastin and Witter, 2000; Delmelle and others, 2015; Manville, 2015; Rouwet and others, 2015)—hazards that have historically been responsible for substantial loss of life at many volcanoes worldwide (Manville, 2015). Catastrophic CO 2 release at Lake Nyos, Cameroon, in 1986 suffocated about 1,750 people and about 3,500 livestock and was probably triggered by a large landslide into the gas-saturated lake (Kling and others, 1987; Evans and others, 1993). Gas-charged springs in Soda Bay within Clear Lake (California) have caused almost a dozen deaths to bathers in the past hundred years (ABC News, 2000). A 2005 example of lake overturn and abundant gas release was documented at Mount Chiginagak in Alaska (Schaefer and others, 2008) but did not result in any human casualties. Although thermally stratified lakes, which promote trapping of exsolved magmatic gas, tend to develop in tropical regions, the phenomenon can also arise where salinity creates meromixis (a condition in which a lake does not mix completely), as occurs in Mono Lake, California (Jellison and Melack, 1993; Jellison and others, 1998). If magma erupts or flows into a lake, the interaction between hot magma and cold water can be explosive (Mastin and others, 2004; Zimanowski and others, 2015) and substantially expand the area affected by the eruption. Another hazard is the breaching of crater rims by landslides triggered by volcanic and (or) seismic activity. Under some circumstances, substantial volumes of water can be displaced, leading to large floods and lahars. Late Holocene lake flooding from Aniakchak Crater in the Alaska Peninsula (Waythomas, 2022) and from Paulina Lake in Newberry Crater, Oregon (Chitwood and Jensen, 2000), caused by the failure of outlet sills, testify to the substantial hazards at lake-filled calderas. Several volcanic systems in the United States host lakes known to receive heat and gas from underlying magma. These lakes vary widely in area, depth, and chemical composition. Lakes are present at level 4 volcanoes, including Crater Lake and Newberry Volcano in Oregon; Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming; Long Valley Caldera, Clear Lake volcanic field, Medicine Lake, and Salton Buttes in California; and Aniakchak Crater, Mount Katmai, Fisher Caldera, Mount Okmok, and Kaguyak Crater, among others, in Alaska. A water lake was present in Halemaʻumaʻu, the crater of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i (fig. F1), from October 2019 to December 2020. Level 3 volcanoes with lakes include Mono Lake volcanic field (Calif.), Mount Bachelor (Ore.), Ukinrek Maars and Mount Chiginagak (Alaska), and Soda Lake (Nevada). In addition, there are lakes at many levels 1 and 2 volcanoes. In the United States, there are no strongly acidic lakes that receive abundant input of magmatic gas, such as those found at Mount Ruapehu (New Zealand), Ijen and Kelud (Indonesia), and Poás (Costa Rica). Nevertheless, many contain fluids that provide clues to magmatic processes below. Since publication of a previous report on recommended instrumentation for volcano monitoring (Moran and others, 2008), continuous hydrologic monitoring has become increasingly feasible. However, changes in water pressure, temperature, and chemistry remain, in general, poorly studied phenomena at volcanoes (Sparks, 2003; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017). Recent efforts by the USGS have included the temporary study of Cascade Range volcanoes, which included frequent (15 minute to hourly) temporal sampling of temperature, depth, and conductivity (Crankshaw and others, 2018; Ingebritsen and Evans, 2019). At Yellowstone Caldera, many streamgages have now added thermistors and specific conductance sensors, allowing estimation of time-dependent chloride flux as a proxy for variations in subsurface heat flux (McCleskey and others, 2012, 2016). Efforts to better understand lakes have also accelerated, with bathymetric mapping and sampling carried out at several locations in the United States. Especially thorough work was done at Yellowstone Lake thanks to the Hydrothermal Dynamics of Yellowstone Lake (HD-YLAKE, https://hdylake.org ) project, funded primarily by the National Science Foundation. In addition to geophysical surveys and recovery of cores and other samples, HD-YLAKE investigations included remotely operated vehicle (ROV) investigations of hydrothermal vents on the lake floor (fig. F2). Data collected by the ROV provided a better understanding of the thermal and chemical influx from lake-bottom hydrothermal systems (Sohn and others, 2017). In this chapter, we focus on detecting changes in the chemistry, temperature, discharge, or water levels of streams, springs, and lakes that can be caused by seismicity, volumetric strains, or increases in gas flux associated with ascending magma. There is unavoidable overlap with other chapters of this report. Samples of water and gas can also be obtained in boreholes ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–K, 5 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062k. ">chapter K , this volume; Hurwitz and Lowenstern, 2024), both shallow and deep. Gas monitoring ( of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–E, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062e.">chapter E , this volume; Lewicki and others, 2024) relies in part on samples from springs and wells, particularly where measurable gas plumes are absent. Water acts as a trigger and lubricant for landslides and sediment-rich floods, and so hydrology has obvious relevance for lahar monitoring, as discussed in of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–H, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062h. ">chapter H (this volume; Thelen and others, 2024). Shared situational awareness among scientists engaged in geophysical, gas, and hydrologic monitoring will improve overall understanding of the volcanic hazard.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Change points in annual peak streamflows: Method comparisons and historical change points in the United States

Change-point, or step-trend, detection is an active area of research in statistics and an area of great interest in hydrology because change points may be evidence of natural or anthropogenic changes in climatic, hydrologic, or landscape processes. A common change-point technique is the Pettitt test; however, many change-point methods are now available and testing of methods has been limited. This study investigated eight methods for detecting change points in the location (central tendency, seven methods) and scale (dispersion or spread, one method) of annual peak streamflows, using simulated data with and without change points, and peak-streamflow series from basins with known large additions of reservoir storage. Parametric methods tested, including a Bayesian one, did not perform well, even when transforming peak streamflows to approximate normality by using logarithms. Nonparametric methods other than the Pettitt test allow for more than one change point but have an unacceptable number of false positives. Based on the results of our methods comparisons, we used the Pettitt and the Mood tests to find change points in location and scale, respectively, in thousands of streamgage records in the conterminous United States. Change points in location (median) and scale are abundant, with the changes in median peak streamflow showing regional patterns, as well as a strong increased streamflow signal around 1970. The changes in scale of peak streamflows are dominated more by temporal than spatial patterns; more streamgages had decreases in scale in earlier decades than recent decades and more streamgages had increases in scale occurring in recent decades than earlier decades.

Journal of Hydrology↗

National assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources: Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an evaluation of the technically accessible storage resource ( TA SR ) for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) for 36 sedimentary basins in the onshore areas and State waters of the United States. The TA SR is an estimate of the geologic storage resource that may be available for CO 2 injection and storage and is based on current geologic and hydrologic knowledge of the subsurface and current engineering practices. By using a geology-based probabilistic assessment methodology, the USGS assessment team members obtained a mean estimate of approximately 3,000 metric gigatons (Gt) of subsurface CO 2 storage capacity that is technically accessible below onshore areas and State waters; this amount is more than 500 times the 2011 annual U.S. energy-related CO 2 emissions of 5.5 Gt (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/). In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110–140) directed the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a national assessment of geologic storage resources for CO 2 in consultation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy, and State geological surveys. The USGS developed a methodology to estimate storage resource potential in geologic formations in the United States (Burruss and others, 2009, USGS Open-File Report (OFR) 2009–1035; Brennan and others, 2010, USGS OFR 2010–1127; Blondes, Brennan, and others, 2013, USGS OFR 2013–1055). In 2012, the USGS completed the assessment, and the results are summarized in this Fact Sheet and are provided in more detail in companion reports (U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Assessment Team, 2013a,b; see related reports at right). The goal of this project was to conduct an initial assessment of storage capacity on a regional basis, and results are not intended for use in the evaluation of specific sites for potential CO 2 storage. The national assessment was a geology-based examination of all sedimentary basins in the onshore and State waters area of the United States that contain storage assessment units (SAUs) that could be defined according to geologic and hydrologic characteristics. Although geologic storage of CO 2 may be possible in some areas not assessed by the USGS, the SAUs identified in this assessment represent those areas within sedimentary basins that met the assessment criteria. A geologic description of each SAU was prepared; descriptions for SAUs in several basins are in Warwick and Corum (2012, USGS OFR 2012–1024).

Fact Sheet↗

Determination of biologically significant hydrologic condition metrics in urbanizing watersheds: an empirical analysis over a range of environmental settings

We investigated the relations among 83 hydrologic condition metrics (HCMs) and changes in algal, invertebrate, and fish communities in five metropolitan areas across the continental United States. We used a statistical approach that employed Spearman correlation and regression tree analysis to identify five HCMs that are strongly associated with observed biological variation along a gradient of urbanization. The HCMs related to average flow magnitude, high-flow magnitude, high-flow event frequency, high-flow duration, and rate of change of stream cross-sectional area were most consistently associated with changes in aquatic communities. Although our investigation used an urban gradient design with short hydrologic periods of record (≤1 year) of hourly cross-sectional area time series, these five HCMs were consistent with previous investigations using long-term daily-flow records. The ecological sampling day often was included in the hydrologic period. Regression tree models explained up to 73, 92, and 79% of variance for specific algal, invertebrate, and fish community metrics, respectively. National models generally were not as statistically significant as models for individual metropolitan areas. High-flow event frequency, a hydrologic metric found to be transferable across stream type and useful for classifying habitat by previous research, was found to be the most ecologically relevant HCM; transformation by precipitation increased national-scale applicability. We also investigated the relation between measures of stream flashiness and land-cover indicators of urbanization and found that land-cover characteristic and pattern variables, such as road density, percent wetland, and proximity of developed land, were strongly related to HCMs at both a metropolitan and national scale and, therefore, may be effective land-use management options in addition to wholesale impervious-area reduction.

Milwaukee-Green Bay; Boston; Raleigh; Atlanta; Bir↗

Map showing occurrences of spring-deposited travertine in the conterminous Western United States

Extinct travertine terraces occur hundreds of meters above present levels of spring activity and have potentials for interpretation of ancient hydrologic systems, rates of downcutting, or rates of tectonic uplift that remain virtually unexploited. The abundance and size of extinct travertine deposits suggest that in many places, such as pinnacles at the southwest end of the Searles Lake basin, California, spring activity was once more widespread and copious than it is now. Travertine of Eocene age has been reported, and a scattering of later Tertiary occurrences is known. But where age has been inferred, the inferred ages are predominantly Pleistocene or younger. So travertine seems to be a geologically transient phenomenon, subject either to removal by erosion or to burial and disappearance. Many travertine deposits are known to be on or close to faults. Their occurrence in otherwise structurally featureless alluvial valleys may, therefore, suggest the possibility of a hidden fault. From the Front Range to the Pacific, more than 300 travertime deposits have been identified. The map shows that the deposits are widely dispersed. However, there are apparent groupings on the Wasatch Fault and associated tectonic areas trending northward in Utah and southern Idaho, and also near the great fault zone that marks the eastern boundary of the Sierra Nevada, California. (Lantz-PTT)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Implementation plan of the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program strategy—Great Lakes (Central Lowland and Superior Upland Physiographic Provinces)

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP) has published a strategic plan entitled “Renewing the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program as the Nation’s Authoritative Source for Modern Geologic Knowledge”. This plan provides the following vision, mission, and goals for the program for the years 2020–30: Vision: create an integrated, three-dimensional (3D), digital geologic map of the United States. Mission: characterize, interpret, and disseminate a national geologic framework model of the Earth through geologic mapping. Goal: focus on geological mapping as a core function of the USGS within the long-term vision and mission of creating a digital geologic map and geologic framework model of the Nation. To achieve the goal outlined in the strategic plan, the NCGMP has developed an Implementation Plan. This Implementation Plan will guide annual reviews of the FEDMAP component (that is, the component of the USGS NCGMP that funds geologic mapping by USGS geologists) of the NCGMP projects described in the plan and the development of the annual FEDMAP prospectus, which will ensure the application of the NCGMP strategy. This publication is part of the Implementation Plan of the NCGMP strategy and addresses the following three major topics: continued development of a consistent National geologic map and database; the major unanswered geologic questions in the region; and the societal concerns associated with these geologic questions, such as hazards, geologic and hydrologic resources, and environmental issues. The regions used in this chapter correspond with physiographic divisions of the United States as defined by Fenneman. Physiographic divisions are delineated on the basis of topography, and to a lesser extent, the geologic structure and history. The physiographic divisions are subdivided into physiographic provinces, and the physiographic provinces are subdivided into physiographic sections. Fenneman’s physiographic divisions of the United States provide a robust and useful spatial organization for delineating large geographic regions of the United States for various scientific and industrial applications.

Great Lakes (Central Lowland and Superior Upland P↗

Hydrologic framework of Long Island, New York

Long Island, N.Y., is underlain by a mass of unconsolidated geologic deposits of clay, silt, sand, and gravel that overlie southward-sloping consolidated bedrock. These deposits are thinnest in northern Queens County (northwestern Long Island), where bedrock crops out, and increase to a maximum thickness of 2,000 ft in southeastern Long Island. This sequence of unconsolidated deposits consists of several distinct geologic units ranging in age from late Cretaceous through Pleistocene, with some recent deposits near shores and streams. These units are differentiated by age, depositional environment, and lithology in table 1. Investigations of ground-water availability and flow patterns may require information on the internal geometry of the hydrologic system that geologic correlations and interpretation alone cannot provide; hydrologic interpretations in which deposits are differentiated on the basis of water-transmitting properties are generally needed also. This set of maps and vertical sections depicts the hydrogeologic framework of the unconsolidated deposits that form Long Island's ground-water system. These deposits can be classified into eight major hydrogeologic units (table 1). The hydrogeologic interpretations presented herein are not everywhere consistent with strict geologic interpretation owing to facies changes and local variations in the water-transmitting properties within geologic units. These maps depict the upper-surface altitude of seven of the eight hydrogeologic units, which, in ascending order, are: consolidated bedrock, Lloyd aquifer, Raritan confining unit, Magothy aquifer, Monmouth greensand, Jameco aquifer, and Gardiners Clay. The upper glacial aquifer—the uppermost unit—is at land surface over most of Long Island and is, therefore, not included. The nine north-south hydrogeologic sections shown below depict the entire sequence of unconsolidated deposits and, together with the maps, provide a detailed three-dimensional interpretation of Long Island's hydrogeologic framework. The structure-contour map that shows the upper-surface altitude of the Cretaceous deposits is included to illustrate the erosional unconformity between the Cretaceous and overlying Pleistocene deposits. Pleistocene erosion played a major role in determining the shape and extent of the Lloyd aquifer, the Raritan confining unit, and the Magothy aquifer, and thus partly determined their hydrogeologic relation with subsequent (post-Cretaceous) deposits.

Hydrologic Atlas↗

Assessing future risks to agricultural productivity, water resources and food security: How can remote sensing help?

Although global food production has been rising, the world sti ll faces a major food security challenge. Over one billion people are currently undernourished (Wheeler and Kay, 2010). By the 2050s, the human population is projected to grow to 9.1 billion. Over three-quarters of these people will be living in developing countries, in regions that already lack the capacity to feed their populations . Under current agricultural practices, the increased demand for food would require in excess of one billion hectares of new cropland, nearly equivalent to the land area of the United States, and would lead to significant increases in greenhouse gases (Tillman et al. , 2011). Since climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity, changes to it will influence not only crop yields, but also hydrologic balances and supplies of inputs to managed farming systems, and may lead to a shift in the geographic location of some crops . Therefore, not only must crop productivity (yield per unit of land; kg/m 2 ) increase, but water productivity (yield per unit of water or "crop per drop"; kg/m 3 ) must increase as well in order to feed a burgeoning population against a backdrop of changing dietary consumption patterns, a changing climate and the growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington, 2010). The impact from these changes wi ll affect the viability of both dryland subsistence and irrigated commodity food production (Knox, et al. , 2010a). Since climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity, any changes will influence not only crop yields, but also the hydrologic balances, and supplies of inputs to managed farming systems as well as potentially shifting the geographic location for specific crops . Unless concerted and collective action is taken, society risks worldwide food shortages, scarcity of water resources and insufficient energy. This has the potential to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and migration as people flee the worst-affected regions to seck refuge in "safe havens", a situation that Beddington described as the "perfect storm" (2010).

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Stable isotopes and mineral resource investigations in the United States

The elements oxygen, hydrogen, sulfur, and carbon are important constituents of hydrothermal ore-forming systems and the weathering processes of mineral deposits in the surficial environment. They also play key roles in volcanic activity, ecosystem dynamics, climate change, and hydrologic and atmospheric processes. Therefore, study of the stable isotopes of these elements can provide powerful insights into these processes. This is especially true for ongoing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) projects in the Eastern United States that are concerned with the origins of base (copper, lead, and zinc) and precious (gold and silver) metal deposits in the Carolina slate belt and northern Maine and with the environmental effects of weathering of mineral deposits (fig. 1).

Information Handout↗

Identifying dominant controls on hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments: a comparative hydrology approach

Daily streamflow information is critical for solving various hydrologic problems, though observations of continuous streamflow for model calibration are available at only a small fraction of the world’s rivers. One approach to estimate daily streamflow at an ungauged location is to transfer rainfall–runoff model parameters calibrated at a gauged (donor) catchment to an ungauged (receiver) catchment of interest. Central to this approach is the selection of a hydrologically similar donor. No single metric or set of metrics of hydrologic similarity have been demonstrated to consistently select a suitable donor catchment. We design an experiment to diagnose the dominant controls on successful hydrologic model parameter transfer. We calibrate a lumped rainfall–runoff model to 83 stream gauges across the United States. All locations are USGS reference gauges with minimal human influence. Parameter sets from the calibrated models are then transferred to each of the other catchments and the performance of the transferred parameters is assessed. This transfer experiment is carried out both at the scale of the entire US and then for six geographic regions. We use classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to determine the relationship between catchment similarity and performance of transferred parameters. Similarity is defined using physical/climatic catchment characteristics, as well as streamflow response characteristics (signatures such as baseflow index and runoff ratio). Across the entire US, successful parameter transfer is governed by similarity in elevation and climate, and high similarity in streamflow signatures. Controls vary for different geographic regions though. Geology followed by drainage, topography and climate constitute the dominant similarity metrics in forested eastern mountains and plateaus, whereas agricultural land use relates most strongly with successful parameter transfer in the humid plains.

Journal of Hydrology↗

The relationship of catchment topography and soil hydraulic characteristics to lake alkalinity in the northeastern United States

We undertook the task of determining whether base flow alkalinity of surface waters in the northeastern United States is related to indices of soil contact time and flow path partitioning that are derived from topographic and soils information. The influence of topography and soils on catchment hydrology has been incorporated previously in the variable source area model TOPMODEL as the relative frequency distribution of ln ( a/Kb tan B ), where ln is the Naperian logarithm, “ a ” is the area drained per unit contour, K is the saturated hydraulic conductivity, b is the soil depth, and tan B is the slope. Using digital elevation and soil survey data, we calculated the ln ( a/Kb tan B ) distribution for 145 catchments. Indices of flow path partitioning and soil contact time were derived from the ln ( a/Kb tan B ) distributions and compared to measurements of alkalinity in lakes to which the catchments drain. We found that alkalinity was, in general, positively correlated with the index of soil contact time, whereas the correlation between alkalinity and the flow path partitioning index was weak at best. A portion of the correlation between the soil contact time index and alkalinity was attributable to covariation with soil base saturation and cation exchange capacity, while another portion was found to be independent of these factors. Although our results indicate that catchments with long soil contact time indices are most likely to produce high alkalinity base flow, a sensitivity analysis of TOPMODEL suggests that surface waters of these same watersheds may be susceptible to alkalinity depressions during storm events, due to the role of flow paths.

Water Resources Research↗

Hydrologic modeling in a marsh-mangrove ecotone: Predicting wetland surface water and salinity response to restoration in the Ten Thousand Islands region of Florida, USA

At the fringe of Everglades National Park in southwest Florida, United States, the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (TTINWR) habitat has been heavily affected by the disruption of natural freshwater flow across the Tamiami Trail (U.S. Highway 41). As the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) proposes to restore the natural sheet flow from the Picayune Strand Restoration Project area north of the highway, the impact of planned measures on the hydrology in the refuge needs to be taken into account. The objective of this study was to develop a simple, computationally efficient mass balance model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of water level and salinity within the area of interest. This model could be used to assess the effects of the proposed management decisions on the surface water hydrological characteristics of the refuge. Surface water variations are critical to the maintenance of wetland processes. The model domain is divided into 10 compartments on the basis of their shared topography, vegetation, and hydrologic characteristics. A diversion of + 10 % of the discharge recorded during the modeling period was simulated in the primary canal draining the Picayune Strand forest north of the Tamiami Trail (Faka Union Canal) and this discharge was distributed as overland flow through the refuge area. Water depths were affected only modestly. However, in the northern part of the refuge, the hydroperiod, i.e., the duration of seasonal flooding, was increased by 21 days (from 115 to 136 days) for the simulation during the 2008 wet season, with an average water level rise of 0.06 m. The average salinity over a two-year period in the model area just south of Tamiami Trail was reduced by approximately 8 practical salinity units (psu) (from 18 to 10 psu), whereas the peak dry season average was reduced from 35 to 29 psu (by 17%). These salinity reductions were even larger with greater flow diversions ( + 20 % ). Naturally, the reduction in salinity diminished toward the open water areas where the daily flood tides mix in saline bay water. Partially restoring hydrologic flows to TTINWR will affect hydroperiod and salinity regimes within downslope wetlands, and perhaps serve as a management tool to reduce the speed of future encroachment of mangroves into marsh as sea levels rise.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗

Natural and anthropogenic influences on benthic cyanobacteria in streams of the northeastern United States

Benthic cyanobacteria are widespread in streams and rivers and have the potential to release toxins. In large numbers, these microorganisms and their toxins present a risk to human health. Cyanobacterial abundance in stream biofilms is typically related to single or a limited set of environmental factors, mainly light availability, water temperature, and nutrient concentrations. However, these factors may act synergistically with watershed characteristics and other stressors, such as anthropogenic pollutants, to affect cyanobacteria. We investigated the influence of multiple regional and local variables on the abundance of benthic cyanobacterial genera in streams using all subsets generalized additive modeling. We examined watershed factors (topography, geology, and climate) alongside in-stream factors (geomorphology, hydrology, pH, specific conductance, nutrients, organic contaminants, and dissolved metals) from 76 sites along an urban gradient in the northeast United States. Each genus responded to a distinct combination of environmental variables, demonstrating strong intergeneric variation in environmental selection of realized niches. Four of the 7 potentially toxigenic genera that we modeled were positively influenced by water temperature or nutrients. Nonetheless, watershed characteristics, streamflow, and/or other water quality pollutants were equally or more influential for the potentially toxigenic genera. Additionally, the relationships between cyanobacterial abundance and environmental factors varied in shape and direction across many genera. In particular, with increasing concentrations of herbicides, polychlorinated biphenyls, or metals, the abundance of roughly half of the affected genera decreased, while the others increased. These results likely demonstrate novel toxic effects of the pollutants on cyanobacterial genera in the environment, while indicating that unmeasured biotic interactions may lead to positive responses for other genera. Our results emphasize the need to consider variables beyond those that are most frequently measured or implicated (e.g., water temperature and nutrients) to more fully understand the environmental conditions that influence the distributions and abundance of potentially harmful cyanobacteria.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire. New Yor↗

An extrapolation method for estimating loads from unmonitored areas using watershed model load ratios

It is important to routinely estimate loads from an entire watershed to describe current conditions and evaluate how watershed-wide management efforts have affected the nutrient and sediment export that affect downstream water quality. However, monitoring in most areas, including the Great Lakes watershed, consists of sampling at a limited number of sites that are only periodically used to estimate total watershed loading. Here, we describe a technique to extrapolate loads measured at a limited number of reference sites to the total load from a large watershed using load ratios between monitored sites and unmonitored areas obtained from a watershed model (i.e., model load ratio, MLR, approach). In this study, modeled nonpoint-source load ratios between monitored tributaries (reference sites) and nearby unmonitored areas and point-source delivery factors for all areas were obtained from a Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model and used to extrapolate the measured loads from an ongoing monitoring program (Great Lakes Restoration Initiative Tributary monitoring program) to the entire Great Lakes watershed. The MLR approach incorporates spatial variability in nonpoint- and point-source delivery, watershed characteristics, and hydrology that are often not considered when estimating loads from unmonitored areas, such as using the unit area load (UAL) extrapolation approach. The MLR approach provided smaller watershed loads than the UAL approach because yields from monitored sites, in general, were larger than from unmonitored areas. When both approaches were used to estimate loads at adjacent monitored sites, the MLR approach provided more accurate estimates than the UAL approach.

Great Lakes Basin↗

COVID-19 pandemic impacts on global inland fisheries

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to environmental recovery in some ecosystems from a global “anthropause,” yet such evidence for natural resources with extraction or production value (e.g., fisheries) is limited. This brief report provides a data-driven global snapshot of expert-perceived impacts of COVID-19 on inland fisheries. We distributed an online survey assessing perceptions of inland fishery pressures in June and July 2020 to basin-level inland fishery experts (i.e., identified by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations across the global North and South); 437 respondents from 79 countries addressed 93 unique hydrological basins, accounting for 82.1% of global inland fish catch. Based on the responses analyzed against extrinsic fish catch and human development index data, pandemic impacts on inland fisheries 1) add gradation to the largely positive environmental narrative of the global pandemic and 2) identify that basins of higher provisioning value are perceived to experience greater fishery pressures but may have limited compensatory capacity to mitigate COVID-19 impacts along with negative pressures already present.

PNAS↗

Mapped predictions of manganese and arsenic in an alluvial aquifer using boosted regression trees

Manganese (Mn) concentrations and the probability of arsenic (As) exceeding the drinking-water standard of 10 μg/L were predicted in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) using boosted regression trees (BRT). BRT, a type of ensemble-tree machine-learning model, were created using predictor variables that affect Mn and As distribution in groundwater. These variables included iron (Fe) concentrations and specific conductance predicted from previously developed BRT models, groundwater flux and age estimates from MODFLOW, and hydrologic characteristics. The models also included results from the first airborne geophysical survey conducted in the United States to target an entire aquifer system. Predictions of high Mn and As occurred where Fe was high. Predicted high Mn concentrations were correlated with fraction of young groundwater (less than 65 years) computed from MODFLOW results. High probabilities of As exceedance were predicted where groundwater was relatively old and airborne electromagnetic resistivity was high, typically proximal to streams. Two-variable partial-dependence plots and sensitivity analysis were used to provide insight into the factors controlling Mn and As distribution in groundwater. The maps of predicted Mn concentrations and As exceedance probabilities can be used to identify areas where these constituents may be high, and that could be targeted for further study. This paper shows that incorporation of a selected set of process-informed data, such as MODFLOW results and airborne geophysics, into a machine-learning model improves model interpretability. Incorporation of process-rich information into machine-learning models will likely be useful for addressing a wide range of problems of interest to groundwater hydrologists.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee↗