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Behavioral shifts mask the success of legislation and outreach for endangered species recovery

A fundamental challenge in conservation is assessing the efficacy of recovery actions to optimize endangered species management. Considerable recent attention has focused on effective measures to counter the endangerment of avian scavengers, which have declined worldwide, primarily due to poisoning. One iconic example is efforts to recover the critically endangered California condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ), whose leading cause of death is poisoning from ingesting lead-based ammunition in carcasses. Despite enormous resources expended in California, USA, including implementation of public outreach campaigns and two legislative bans on lead ammunition, lead-related mortality of condors has increased. Here we show that two types of behavioral shifts explain the observed increases in condor lead exposure: wilder foraging and ranging by condors and increased shooting of wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) by humans. After accounting for these trends, we show that both lead ammunition bans and public outreach efforts have significantly reduced condor blood lead levels in California, lowering mortality. Our analyses uncover a dynamic in which changing ecological conditions mask the true efficacy of legislation and outreach. Given rapid global change, such dynamics are likely operating in many settings, underscoring the importance of comprehensive evaluations of recovery actions, which can be obscured by shifting behaviors and threats.

Baja California, California↗

An approach to urban waterway assessment using holistic values and reciprocity

Current aquatic ecosystem assessment methods and tools often focus on physical, chemical, and biological indicators of ecosystem health. This approach to ecosystem assessment is not always straightforward to execute in urban environments and ignores potential connectivity between social and environmental outcomes. During a workshop at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology in Brisbane, Australia in 2023 (SUSE6), we developed an approach to urban aquatic ecosystem assessment that incorporates a holistic perspective. Specifically, our approach considers both environmental (biological, chemical, and physical integrity) and social (community connection, human safety, resource use) values of urban waterways. This approach is inclusive of Indigenous perspectives, such as the concept of reciprocity, whereby consideration of both the environment and society leads to a healthy ecosystem. To highlight how this holistic assessment approach could be used, we present real-world examples that included assessing both environmental and societal values informed by reciprocity or balanced perspectives. This approach can be broadly applied and adapted to specific aquatic ecosystem conditions and projects, providing an inclusive, community-centered approach for assessing the health of waterways in urban environments.

Freshwater Science↗

Wind, sun, and wildlife: Do wind and solar energy development “short-circuit” conservation in the western United States?

Despite the trade-offs between renewable energy development, land use, humans, and wildlife, wind and solar development continues to transform the southwestern US into a green energy landscape. While renewable energy reduces carbon emissions and reliance on fossil fuels, many studies have emerged on the associated ecological and social impacts of this technology. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the nexus between wildlife conservation and energy development in the western US since 2010. We revisit pertinent ecological concepts and questions presented in earlier reviews to assess how far the field has progressed in mitigating negative effects. Specifically, we ask, what density or design of development maximizes energy benefits while minimizing negative effects on wildlife, whether the results of previously-deficient before-after control-impact studies are now more readily-available, and ultimately, can the impacts of renewable energy development on wildlife be mitigated? We also provide a case study on the federally-protected Desert Tortoise, a conservation-reliant species in the Desert Southwest US, to highlight efforts to mitigate the negative effects of renewable energy development. Our review concludes that successful mitigation is possible via use of spatial decision support tools, applying novel wildlife deterrence and detection systems developed for existing installed facilities, and incorporating impact studies that provide managers with conservation metrics for evaluating different future development land-use scenarios.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Integrating ecological impacts: Perspectives on drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States

Drought is a complex challenge experienced in specific locations through diverse impacts, including ecological impacts. Different professionals involved in drought preparedness and response approach the problem from different points of view, which means they may or may not recognize ecological impacts. This study examines the extent to which interviewees perceive ecological drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters basin in southwestern Montana. Through semistructured interviews, this research investigates individuals’ perceptions of drought by analyzing how they define drought, how they describe their roles related to drought, and the extent to which they emphasize ecological impacts of drought. Results suggest that while most interviewees have an integrated understanding of drought, they tend to emphasize either ecological or nonecological impacts of drought. This focus was termed their drought orientation. Next, the analysis considers how participants understand exposure to drought. Results indicate that participants view drought as a complex problem driven by both human and natural factors. Last, the paper explores understandings of the available solution space by examining interviewees’ views on adaptive capacity, particularly factors that facilitate or hinder the ability of the Upper Missouri Headwaters region to cope with drought. Participants emphasized that adaptive capacity is both helped and hindered by institutional, cultural, and economic factors, as well as by available information and past resource management practices. Understanding how interviewees perceive the challenges of drought can shape drought preparedness and response, allowing those designing programs to better align their efforts to the perceptions of their target audience.

Montana↗

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Conservation endocrinology: A noninvasive tool to understand relationships between carnivore colonization and ecological carrying capacity

Reproductive technology, especially the diagnosis of pregnancy by radioimmunoassay of fecal steroid metabolites, is an important component of captive propagation, but its role in our understanding of ecological interactions and in situ biological restoration has been more limited. Where large herbivores have been 'released' from predation by the extirpation of carnivores, controversy often exists about possible detrimental effects at the ecosystem level A related concern is that the reestablishment of large carnivores may decrease the availability of prey populations for human subsistence. We suggest that pregnancy assays can be a valuable tool to help distinguish between the roles of predation versus food-imposed limitations on population size and their effects on juvenile recruitment in wild species. We explored this issue through analyses of fecal progestagen concentration (FPC) levels to document pregnancy in moose (Alces alces) in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a site where wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are recolonizing former habitats after an absence of more than 60 years. Pregnancy was clearly discernible (mean FPC for pregnant and nonpregnant females, respectively: 10.60 vs. 2.57 ??g/g; p < 0.0001). Among the potential confounding variables that need to be considered if FPC is applied to ecological and demographic questions are whether baseline values are affected by handling, whether neonate survival has been assessed, and whether sampling efforts are directed at both pregnant and nonpregnant animals. With these issues accounted for, the local moose population experienced juvenile survival rates among the highest in North America. Pregnancy rates, however, dropped from 90% in 1966 to about 75% today, rendering them in the lowest fifteenth percentile among moose populations in North America. Our findings suggest that a relatively low frequency of juvenile moose is not the likely result of predation, and they illustrate how endocrinology can be applied to issues involving reproductive events within an ecological context. They also affirm that noninvasive and generally inexpensive endocrinological procedures will be applicable to understanding interactions between recolonizing predators and prey, an issue that will continue to arise because of global restoration efforts, and to the study of rare ungulates in remote systems where data on reproductive events are difficult to obtain.

Wyoming↗

Aquatic biodiversity in forests: A weak link in ecosystem services resilience

The diversity of aquatic ecosystems is being quickly reduced on many continents, warranting a closer examination of the consequences for ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here we describe intermediate and final ecosystem services derived from aquatic biodiversity in forests. We include a summary of the factors framing the assembly of aquatic biodiversity in forests in natural systems and how they change with a variety of natural disturbances and human-derived stressors. We consider forested aquatic ecosystems as a multi-state portfolio, with diverse assemblages and life-history strategies occurring at local scales as a consequence of a mosaic of habitat conditions and past disturbances and stressors. Maintaining this multi-state portfolio of assemblages requires a broad perspective of ecosystem structure, various functions, services, and management implications relative to contemporary stressors. Because aquatic biodiversity provides multiple ecosystem services to forests, activities that compromise aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity could be an issue for maintaining forest ecosystem integrity. We illustrate these concepts with examples of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in forests of northwestern North America, also known as Northeast Pacific Rim. Encouraging management planning at broad as well as local spatial scales to recognize multi-state ecosystem management goals has promise for maintaining valuable ecosystem services. Ultimately, integration of information from socio-ecological ecosystems will be needed to maintain ecosystem services derived directly and indirectly from forest aquatic biota.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

The western pond turtle (Clemmys marmorata) in the Mojave River, California, USA: Highly adapted survivor or tenuous relict?

Aspects of the ecology of populations of the western pond turtle Clemmys marmorata were investigated in the Mojave River of the central Mojave Desert, California, U.S.A. One population occupied man-made ponds and the other occurred in natural ponds in the flood plain of the Mojave River. Both habitats are severely degraded as a result of ground water depletion from human activities along the river and one is infested with the exotic shrub saltcedar Tamarix ramosissima . Mean female carapace length (CL) was significantly greater (14.4 cm) than that of males (13.7 cm). Live juveniles were not detected during the period of study. Shelled eggs were visible in X-radiographs from 26 May to 14 July. Mean clutch size was 4.46 and ranged from 3 to 6 eggs. Clutch size did not vary between 1998 and 1999 but was significantly correlated with CL for both years combined, increasing at the rate of 0.548 eggs/cm CL. Gravid female CL ranged from 13.3–16.0 cm. Some females nested in both years. Mean X-ray egg width (21.8 mm) was not significantly correlated with CL or clutch size. X-ray egg width differed more among clutches than within, whether including CL as a co-variate or not. Nesting migrations occurred from 6 June to 8 July with minimum round trip distances ranging from 17.5–585 m with a mean of 195 m. Mean estimated time of departure as measured at the drift fence was 18:13. Most females returned to the ponds in the early morning. Nesting migrations required females to be out of the water for estimated periods of 0.83 to 86 h. The destination of nesting females was typically fluvial sand bars in the channel of the dry riverbed. Overall, the ecology of C. marmorata in the Mojave River is very similar to that reported for populations in less severe habitats along the west coast of the United States. Notable exceptions include long nesting migrations to sandbars in the dry river channel, a possible result of human modifications to the environment, and an apparent lack of terrestrial overwintering behaviour in Mojave River populations. The general similarity of desert and coastal populations is possibly a reflection of their recent geographic separation. Overall, populations in the Mojave River exhibit few obvious adaptations to living in the desert and are considered to be tenuous relicts of the Pleistocene. The small size and tenuous status of these populations suggests that immediate conservation action is needed, including establishment of satellite populations as a hedge against extirpation.

California↗

Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

Warm Mineral Springs, located in southern Sarasota County, Florida, is a warm, highly mineralized, inland spring. Since 1946, a bathing spa has been in operation at the spring, attracting vacationers and health enthusiasts. During the winter months, the warm water attracts manatees to the adjoining spring run and provides vital habitat for these mammals. Well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene-age human and animal bones, artifacts, and plant remains have been found in and around the spring, and indicate the surrounding sinkhole formed more than 12,000 years ago. The spring is a multiuse resource of hydrologic importance, ecological and archeological significance, and economic value to the community. The pool of Warm Mineral Springs has a circular shape that reflects its origin as a sinkhole. The pool measures about 240 feet in diameter at the surface and has a maximum depth of about 205 feet. The sinkhole developed in the sand, clay, and dolostone of the Arcadia Formation of the Miocene-age to Oligocene-age Hawthorn Group. Underlying the Hawthorn Group are Oligocene-age to Eocene-age limestones and dolostones, including the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. Mineralized groundwater, under artesian pressure in the underlying aquifers, fills the remnant sink, and the overflow discharges into Warm Mineral Springs Creek, to Salt Creek, and subsequently into the Myakka River. Aquifers described in the vicinity of Warm Mineral Springs include the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system within the Hawthorn Group, and the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. The Hawthorn Group acts as an upper confining unit of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Groundwater flow paths are inferred from the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer for September 2010. Groundwater flow models indicate the downward flow of water into the Upper Floridan aquifer in inland areas, and upward flow toward the surface in coastal areas, such as at Warm Mineral Springs. Warm Mineral Springs is located in a discharge area. Changes in water use in the region have affected the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Historical increase in groundwater withdrawals resulted in a 10- to 20-foot regional decline in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by May 1975 relative to predevelopment levels and remained at approximately that level in May 2007 in the area of Warm Mineral Springs. Discharge measurements at Warm Mineral Springs (1942–2014) decreased from about 11–12 cubic feet per second in the 1940s to about 6–9 cubic feet per second in the 1970s and remained at about that level for the remainder of the period of record. Similarity of changes in regional water use and discharge at Warm Mineral Springs indicates that basin-scale changes to the groundwater system have affected discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Water temperature had no significant trend in temperature over the period of record, 1943–2015, and outliers were identified in the data that might indicate inconsistencies in measurement methods or locations. Within the regional groundwater basin, Warm Mineral Springs is influenced by deep Upper Floridan aquifer flow paths that discharge toward the coast. Associated with these flow paths, the groundwater temperatures increase with depth and toward the coast. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that a source of warm groundwater to Warm Mineral Springs is likely the permeable zone of the Avon Park Formation within the Upper Floridan aquifer at a depth of about 1,400 to 1,600 feet, or deeper sources. The permeable zone contains saline groundwater with water temperatures of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit. The water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, when compared with other springs in Florida had the highest temperature and the greatest mineralized content. Warm Mineral Springs water is characterized by a slight-green color, with varying water clarity, low dissolved oxygen (indicative of deep groundwater), and a hydrogen sulfide odor. Water-quality samples detected ammonium-nitrogen and nitrates, but at low concentrations. The drinking water standard for nitrate adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is 10 milligrams per liter, measured as nitrogen. Water samples collected at spring vents by divers on April 29, 2015, had concentrations of 0.9 milligram per liter nitrate-nitrogen at vent A and 0.04–0.05 milligram per liter at vents B, C, and D. Typically, the water clarity is highest in the morning (about 30 feet Secchi depth) and often decreases throughout the day. Analysis of existing data provided some insight into the hydrologic processes affecting Warm Mineral Springs; however, data have been sparsely and discontinuously collected since the 1940s. Continuous monitoring of hydrologic characteristics such as discharge, water temperature, specific conductance, and water-quality indicators, such as nitrate and turbidity (water clarity), would be valuable for monitoring and development of models of spring discharge and water quality. In addition, water samples could be analyzed for isotopic tracers, such as strontium, and the results used to identify and quantify the sources of groundwater that discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Groundwater flow/transport models could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of the quality and quantity of water flowing from Warm Mineral Springs to changes in climate, aquifer levels, and water use.

Florida↗

Differential invasion success of salmonids in southern Chile: patterns and hypotheses

Biological invasions create complex ecological and societal issues worldwide. Most of the knowledge about invasions comes only from successful invaders, but less is known about which processes determine the differential success of invasions. In this review, we develop a framework to identify the main dimensions driving the success and failure of invaders, including human influences, characteristics of the invader, and biotic interactions. We apply this framework by contrasting hypotheses and available evidence to explain variability in invasion success for 12 salmonids introduced to Chile. The success of Oncorhynchus mykiss and Salmo trutta seems to be influenced by a context-specific combination of their phenotypic plasticity, low ecosystem resistance, and propagule pressure. These well-established invaders may limit the success of subsequently introduced salmonids, with the possible exception of O. tshawytscha, which has a short freshwater residency and limited spatial overlap with trout. Although propagule pressure is high for O. kisutch and S. salar due to their intensive use in aquaculture, their lack of success in Chile may be explained by environmental resistance, including earlier spawning times than in their native ranges, and interactions with previously established and resident Rainbow Trout. Other salmonids have also failed to establish, and they exhibit a suite of ecological traits, environmental resistance, and limited propagule pressure that are variably associated with their lack of success. Collectively, understanding how the various drivers of invasion success interact may explain the differential success of invaders and provide key guidance for managing both positive and negative outcomes associated with their presence.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

Spatially robust estimates of biological nitrogen (N) fixation imply substantial human alteration of the tropical N cycle

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of exogenous nitrogen (N) to unmanaged ecosystems and also the primary baseline against which anthropogenic changes to the N cycle are measured. Rates of BNF in tropical rainforest are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but they are notoriously difficult to quantify and are based on little empirical data. We adapted a sampling strategy from community ecology to generate spatial estimates of symbiotic and free-living BNF in secondary and primary forest sites that span a typical range of tropical forest legume abundance. Although total BNF was higher in secondary than primary forest, overall rates were roughly five times lower than previous estimates for the tropical forest biome. We found strong correlations between symbiotic BNF and legume abundance, but we also show that spatially free-living BNF often exceeds symbiotic inputs. Our results suggest that BNF in tropical forest has been overestimated, and our data are consistent with a recent top-down estimate of global BNF that implied but did not measure low tropical BNF rates. Finally, comparing tropical BNF within the historical area of tropical rainforest with current anthropogenic N inputs indicates that humans have already at least doubled reactive N inputs to the tropical forest biome, a far greater change than previously thought. Because N inputs are increasing faster in the tropics than anywhere on Earth, both the proportion and the effects of human N enrichment are likely to grow in the future.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report↗

Water Budgets: Foundations for Effective Water-Resources and Environmental Management

INTRODUCTION Water budgets provide a means for evaluating availability and sustainability of a water supply. A water budget simply states that the rate of change in water stored in an area, such as a watershed, is balanced by the rate at which water flows into and out of the area. An understanding of water budgets and underlying hydrologic processes provides a foundation for effective water-resource and environmental planning and management. Observed changes in water budgets of an area over time can be used to assess the effects of climate variability and human activities on water resources. Comparison of water budgets from different areas allows the effects of factors such as geology, soils, vegetation, and land use on the hydrologic cycle to be quantified. Human activities affect the natural hydrologic cycle in many ways. Modifications of the land to accommodate agriculture, such as installation of drainage and irrigation systems, alter infiltration, runoff, evaporation, and plant transpiration rates. Buildings, roads, and parking lots in urban areas tend to increase runoff and decrease infiltration. Dams reduce flooding in many areas. Water budgets provide a basis for assessing how a natural or human-induced change in one part of the hydrologic cycle may affect other aspects of the cycle. This report provides an overview and qualitative description of water budgets as foundations for effective water-resources and environmental management of freshwater hydrologic systems. Perhaps of most interest to the hydrologic community, the concepts presented are also relevant to the fields of agriculture, atmospheric studies, meteorology, climatology, ecology, limnology, mining, water supply, flood control, reservoir management, wetland studies, pollution control, and other areas of science, society, and industry. The first part of the report describes water storage and movement in the atmosphere, on land surface, and in the subsurface, as well as water exchange among these compartments. Our ability to measure these phenomena and inherent uncertainties in measurement techniques also are discussed. The latter part of the report presents a number of case studies that illustrate how water-budget studies are conducted, documents how human activities affect water budgets, and describes how water budgets are used to address water and environmental issues.

Circular↗

Mediterranean-type ecosystems: the influence of biodiversity on their functioning

Ecosystems in the Mediterranean-climate regions of the world have served as a unit for comparative ecological studies for over two decades. The cohesiveness of research in this set of widely distributed regions rests on the similarity of the climates where they occur, and the identifiable convergence in elements of their vegetation structure (Di Castri and Mooney 1973). In this chapter we review functional aspects of what have come to be known as Mediterranean-type ecosystems (METs) in the context of a concerned global interest in the sustainability of the human environment and its dependence on biological diversity. The approach we adopt here is to look for evidence that this biodiversity, for which some MTEs are renowned (Cowling, 1992; Hobbs, 1992), has an influence on processes which are important both for the maintenance of natural systems, and for providing "ecosystem services" with human utility. Almost a century ago, Schimper (1903) recognized the biological similarities between five widely separated regions characterized by Mediterranean-type climates, and much comparative work has been done on that basis since. These regions comprise the Mediterranean basin itself, a major portion of California, central Chile, the southwestern and southern extremities of South Africa, and parts of southwestern and southern Australia (Figure 7.1). The first attention paid to MTEs in terms of quantitative ecological research arose out of the International Biological Programme (IBP) of the 1960s and 1970s. Those efforts focused on comparisons between the Chilean and Californian systems (Mooney 1977), and dealt with parallel models of ecosystem processes, especially water flux (Fuentes et al 1995). Because of the already perceived similarities between vegetation in these and the other three regions, the project was soon extended to include all five regions. The first broad comparative overview was published as an anthology which considered the origins and the convergent evolution of MTE components (Di Castri and Mooney 1973). Although the currently accepted classifications of the MTEs is to some extent artificial, it does provide a basis for comparative work, as well as placing mild, temperate winter rainfall regions in perspective with other system types, such as forests, arid lands and even savannas. It is against this backdrop that the MTE research collegium has grown, giving rise to the organizational structure known as ISOMED (the International Society of Mediterranean Ecologists), which has convened regular conferences under the label MEDECOS, plus a number of extra meetings on specific topics (Table 7.1). One of the more recent in this series of MTE meetings was convened under the auspices of ICSU's Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) (see Table 7.1), and dealt with the questions about the functional value of biodiversity. This chapter is based on that meeting and its proceedings (Richardson and Cowling 1993); David and Richardson 1995), and is a distillation of input by teams of ecologists from each of the five regions.

Book chapter↗

Nutrient, trace-element, and ecological history of Musky Bay, Lac Courte Oreilles, Wisconsin, as inferred from sediment cores

Sediment cores were collected from Musky Bay, Lac Courte Oreilles, and from surrounding areas in 1999 and 2001 to determine whether the water quality of Musky Bay has declined during the last 100 years or more as a result of human activity, specifically cottage development and cranberry farming. Selected cores were analyzed for sedimentation rates, nutrients, minor and trace elements, biogenic silica, diatom assemblages, and pollen over the past several decades. Two cranberry bogs constructed along Musky Bay in 1939 and the early 1950s were substantially expanded between 1950?62 and between 1980?98. Cottage development on Musky Bay has occurred at a steady rate since about 1930, although currently housing density on Musky Bay is one-third to one-half the housing density surrounding three other Lac Courte Oreilles bays. Sedimentation rates were reconstructed for a core from Musky Bay by use of three lead radioisotope models and the cesium-137 profile. The historical average mass and linear sedimentation rates for Musky Bay are 0.023 grams per square centimeter per year and 0.84 centimeters per year, respectively, for the period of about 1936?90. There is also limited evidence that sedimentation rates may have increased after the mid-1990s. Historical changes in input of organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur to Musky Bay could not be directly identified from concentration profiles of these elements because of the potential for postdepositional migration and recycling. Minor- and trace-element profiles from the Musky Bay core possibly reflect historical changes in the input of clastic material over time, as well as potential changes in atmospheric deposition inputs. The input of clastic material to the bay increased slightly after European settlement and possibly in the 1930s through 1950s. Concentrations of copper in the Musky Bay core increased steadily through the early to mid-1900s until about 1980 and appear to reflect inputs from atmospheric deposition. Aluminum- normalized concentrations of calcium, copper, nickel, and zinc increased in the Musky Bay core in the mid-1990s. However, concentrations of these elements in surficial sediment from Musky Bay were similar to concentrations in other Lac Courte Oreilles bays, nearby lakes, and soils and were below probable effects concentrations for aquatic life. Biogenic-silica, diatom-community, and pollen profiles indicate that Musky Bay has become more eutrophic since about 1940 with the onset of cottage development and cranberry farming. The water quality of the bay has especially degraded during the last 25 years with increased growth of aquatic plants and the onset of a floating algal mat during the last decade. Biogenic silica data indicate that diatom production has consistently increased since the 1930s. Diatom assemblage profiles indicate a shift from low-nutrient species to higher-nutrient species during the 1940s and that aquatic plants reached their present density and/or composition during the 1970s. The diatom Fragilaria capucina (indicative of algal mat) greatly increased during the mid-1990s. Pollen data indicate that milfoil, which often becomes more common with elevated nutrients, became more widespread after 1920. The pollen data also indicate that wild rice was present in the eastern end of Musky Bay during the late 1800s and the early 1900s but disappeared after about 1920, probably because of water-level changes more so than eutrophication.

Wisconsin↗

A general theory of multimetric indices and their properties

1. Stewardship of biological and ecological resources requires the ability to make integrative assessments of ecological integrity. One of the emerging methods for making such integrative assessments is multimetric indices (MMIs). These indices synthesize data, often from multiple levels of biological organization, with the goal of deriving a single index that reflects the overall effects of human disturbance. Despite the widespread use of MMIs, there is uncertainty about why this approach can be effective. An understanding of MMIs requires a quantitative theory that illustrates how the properties of candidate metrics relates to MMIs generated from those metrics. 2. We present the initial basis for such a theory by deriving the general mathematical characteristics of MMIs assembled from metrics. We then use the theory to derive quantitative answers to the following questions: Is there an optimal number of metrics to comprise an index? How does covariance among metrics affect the performance of the index derived from those metrics? And what are the criteria to decide whether a given metric will improve the performance of an index? 3. We find that the optimal number of metrics to be included in an index depends on the theoretical distribution of signal of the disturbance gradient contained in each metric. For example, if the rank-ordered parameters of a metric-disturbance regression can be described by a monotonically decreasing function, then an optimum number of metrics exists and can often be derived analytically. We derive the conditions by which adding a given metric can be expected to improve an index. 4. We find that the criterion defining such conditions depends nonlinearly of the signal of the disturbance gradient, the noise (error) of the metric and the correlation of the metric errors. Importantly, we find that correlation among metric errors increases the signal required for the metric to improve the index. 5. The theoretical framework presented in this study provides the basis for understanding the properties of MMIs. It can also be useful throughout the index construction process. Specifically, it can be used to aid understanding of the benefits and limitations of combining metrics into indices; it can inform selection/collection of candidate metrics; and it can be used directly as a decision aid in effective index construction.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

Southern Appalachian Mountains↗

Trends, impacts, and cost of catastrophic and frequent wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Fire regimes in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems have been greatly altered across the western United States. Broad-scale invasion of non-native annual grasses, climate change, and human activities have accelerated wildfire cycles, increased fire size and severity, and lengthened fire seasons in many sagebrush ecosystems to the point that current wildfire-management practices and postfire restoration efforts cannot keep pace to ameliorate the ecological consequences of sagebrush ecosystem loss. The greatest impact of uncharacteristically frequent fire is the transition from native sagebrush-perennial grass communities to invasive, non-native, annual grasslands that are highly flammable. These community transitions are often permanent, owing to the low probability of reestablishing native perennial plants in non-native annual grass−dominated communities. Moreover, these grasses can form extensive and continuous fine fuel loads that promote more frequent fire and the continued expansion of invasive, non-native annuals. More frequent, larger, and severe wildfires necessitate greater resources for fire-prevention, fire-suppression, and postfire restoration activities, while decreasing critical ecosystem services, economic and recreational opportunities, and cultural traditions. Increased flexibility and better prioritization of management activities based on ecological needs, including commitment to long-term prefire and postfire management, are needed to achieve notable reductions in uncharacteristic wildfire activity and associated negative impacts. Collaboration and partnerships across jurisdictional boundaries, agencies, and disciplines can improve consistency in sagebrush-management approaches and thereby contribute to this effort. Here, we provide a synthesis on sagebrush wildfire trends and the impacts of uncharacteristic fire regimes on sagebrush plant communities, dependent wildlife species, fire-suppression costs, and ecosystem services. We also provide an overview of wildland fire coordination efforts among federal, state, and tribal entities.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗