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Future marsh evolution due to tidal changes induced by human adaptation to sea level rise

With sea level rise threatening coastal development, decision-makers are beginning to act by modifying shorelines. Previous research has shown that hardening or softening shorelines may change the tidal range under future sea level rise. Tidal range can also be changed by natural factors. Coastal marshes, which humans increasingly depend on for shoreline protection, are ecologically sensitive to tidal range. Therefore, it is critical to examine how changes in tidal range could influence marsh processes. A marsh accretion model was used to investigate the ecological response of a San Francisco Bay, California, USA marsh to multiple tidal range scenarios and sea level rise from 2010 to 2100. The scenarios include a baseline scenario with no shoreline modifications in the estuary, a shoreline hardening scenario that amplifies the tidal range, and 14 tidal range scenarios as a sensitivity analysis that span tidal amplification and reduction of the baseline scenario. The modeling results expose key tradeoffs to consider when planning for sea level rise. Compared to the baseline, the hardening scenario shows minor differences. However, further tidal amplification prolongs marsh survival but decreases Sarcocornia pacifica cover, an important species for certain threatened wildlife and an effective attenuator of wave energy. Conversely, tidal reduction precipitates marsh drowning but shows gains in Sarcocornia pacifica cover. These mixed impacts of tidal amplification and reduction shown by the model indicate potential tradeoffs in relation to marsh survival, habitat characteristics, and shoreline protection. This study suggests the need for a cross-sectoral, regional approach to sea level rise adaptation.

California↗

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1999 spring transition

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a spring transition as the net surface heat flux changes from cooling to warming. Using in situ data and a numerical circulation model we investigate the circulation and temperature budget on the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) for the spring transition of 1999. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind and heat flux fields and by river inflows. Based on agreements between the modeled and observed fields we use the model to draw inferences on how the surface momentum and heat fluxes affect the seasonal and synoptic scale variability. We account for a strong southeastward current at mid-shelf by the baroclinic response to combined wind and buoyancy forcing, and we show how this local forcing leads to annually occurring cold and low salinity tongues. Through term-by-term analyses of the temperature budget we describe the WFS temperature evolution in spring. Heat flux largely controls the seasonal transition, whereas ocean circulation largely controls the synoptic scale variability. These two processes, however, are closely linked. Bottom topography and coastline geometry are important in generating regions of convergence and divergence. Rivers contribute to the local hydrography and are important ecologically. Along with upwelling, river inflows facilitate frontal aggregation of nutrients and the spring formation of a high concentration chlorophyll plume near the shelf break (the so-called ‘Green River’) coinciding with the cold, low salinity tongues. These features originate by local, shelf-wide forcing; the Loop Current is not an essential ingredient.

Gulf of Mexico↗

Book review: The requisite reference for the study of Sirenia

Sirenians often are given little or no notice in texts on marine mammals; whales, dolphins, and seals are what come to mind for most when a marine mammal is imagined. An order of only four extant species, the Sirenia is indeed the “other” frequently overlooked group of marine mammals. Dugongs and manatees remain unknown by much of the world, but to those that study these species, the members are extraordinarily unique and fascinating. The three highly respected authors of this newly published volume are all distinguished researchers, with more than a century of combined expertise in the study of this mammalian order. Their collective experience and insight make this book a captivating and valuable read for students, professionals, and anyone interested in having an all-inclusive reference for learning about the Order Sirenia. Review info: Ecology and conservation of the Sirenia-dugongs and manatees . By H. Marsh, T. J. O'Shea, and J. E. Reynolds, III, 2012. ISBN: 978-0521888288, 521 pp.

Journal of Mammalian Evolution↗

Age-related reproductive performance of the Adélie penguin, a long-lived seabird exhibiting similar outcomes regardless of individual life-history strategy

Age-related variation in reproductive performance in long-lived iteroparous vertebrate species is common, with performance being influenced by within-individual processes, such as improvement and senescence, in combination with among-individual processes, such as selective appearance and disappearance. Few studies of age-related reproductive performance have compared the role of these drivers within a metapopulation, subject to varying degrees of resource competition. We accounted for within- and among-individual changes among known-aged Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae during 17 years (1997-2013), at three clustered colonies of disparate size, to understand patterns in age-related reproductive success during early and late adulthood. Age at first reproduction (AFR) was lowest, and number of breeding attempts highest, at the largest colony. Regardless of AFR, success improved with early post-recruitment experience. For both oldest and youngest recruitment groups, peak performance occurred at the end of their reproductive life span indicating a possible cost of reproduction. Intermediate recruitment groups reached peak performance in their mid-reproductive life span and with intermediate breeding experience, before decreasing. Breeding success was lowest for the initial breeding attempt regardless of AFR, but we observed subsequent variation relative to recruitment age. Gaining experience by delaying recruitment positively influenced reproductive performance early in the reproductive life span and was most evident for the youngest breeders. Oldest recruits had the highest initial and peak breeding success. Differences in AFR resulted in trade-offs in reproductive life span or timing of senescence but not in the overall number of breeding attempts. Patterns differed as a function of colony size, and thus competition for resources. Early life improvement in performance at the larger colonies was primarily due to within-individual factors and at the largest colony, AFR. Regardless of colony size late-life performance was positively related to the age at last reproduction, indicating selective disappearance of lower performing individuals. These results highlight that different life-history strategies were equally successful, indicating that individuals can overcome potential trade-offs associated with early- and late-life performance. These results have important implications for understanding the evolution of life-history strategies responsible for driving population change.

Beaufort Island ,Ross Island↗

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Recent ecological divergence despite migration in sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka )

Ecological divergence may result when populations experience different selection regimes, but there is considerable discussion about the role of migration at the beginning stages of divergence before reproductive isolating mechanisms have evolved. However, detection of past migration is difficult in current populations and tools to differentiate genetic similarities due to migration versus recent common ancestry are only recently available. Using past volcanic eruption times as a framework, we combine morphological analyses of traits important to reproduction with a coalescent‐based genetic analysis of two proximate sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) populations. We find that this is the most recent (∼500 years, 100 generations) natural ecological divergence recorded in a fish species, and report that this divergence is occurring despite migration. Although studies of fish divergence following the retreat of glaciers (10,000–15,000 years ago) have contributed extensively to our understanding of speciation, the Aniakchak system of sockeye salmon provides a rare example of the initial stages of ecological divergence following natural colonization. Our results show that even in the face of continued migration, populations may diverge in the absence of a physical barrier.

Alaska↗

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗

The San Andreas Fault in the San Francisco Bay area, California: A geology fieldtrip guidebook to selected stops on public lands

This guidebook contains a series of geology fieldtrips with selected destinations along the San Andreas Fault in part of the region that experienced surface rupture during the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906. Introductory materials present general information about the San Andreas Fault System, landscape features, and ecological factors associated with faults in the South Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, the San Francisco Peninsula, and the Point Reyes National Seashore regions. Trip stops include roadside areas and recommended hikes along regional faults and to nearby geologic and landscape features that provide opportunities to make casual observations about the geologic history and landscape evolution. Destinations include the sites along the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in the San Juan Bautista and Hollister region. Stops on public land along the San Andreas Fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties include in the Loma Prieta summit area, Forest of Nicene Marks State Park, Lexington County Park, Sanborn County Park, Castle Rock State Park, and the Mid Peninsula Open Space Preserve. Destinations on the San Francisco Peninsula and along the coast in San Mateo County include the Crystal Springs Reservoir area, Mussel Rock Park, and parts of Golden Gate National Recreation Area, with additional stops associated with the San Gregorio Fault system at Montara State Beach, the James F. Fitzgerald Preserve, and at Half Moon Bay. Field trip destinations in the Point Reyes National Seashore and vicinity provide information about geology and character of the San Andreas Fault system north of San Francisco.

California↗

Predicting woodrat ( Neotoma ) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Aeolian dust in Colorado Plateau soils: Nutrient inputs and recent change in source

Aeolian dust (windblown silt and clay) is an important component in arid-land ecosystems because it may contribute to soil formation and furnish essential nutrients. Few geologic surfaces, however, have been characterized with respect to dust-accumulation history and resultant nutrient enrichment. We have developed a combination of methods to identify the presence of aeolian dust in arid regions and to evaluate the roles of this dust in ecosystem processes. Unconsolidated sandy sediment on isolated surfaces in the Canyonlands region of the Colorado Plateau differs greatly in mineralogical and chemical composition from associated bedrock, mainly aeolian sandstone. Detrital magnetite in the surficial deposits produces moderately high values of magnetic susceptibility, but magnetite is absent in nearby bedrock. A component of the surficial deposits must be aeolian to account for the abundance of magnetite, which formed originally in far-distant igneous rocks. Particle-size analysis suggests that the aeolian dust component is typically as much as 20–30%. Dust inputs have enriched the sediments in many elements, including P, Mg, Na, K, and Mo, as well as Ca, at sites where bedrock lacks calcite cement. Soil-surface biologic crusts are effective dust traps that apparently record a change in dust sources over the past several decades. Some of the recently fallen dust may result from human disturbance of land surfaces that are far from the Canyonlands, such as the Mojave Desert. Some land-use practices in the study area have the potential to deplete soil fertility by means of wind-erosion removal of aeolian silt. Many studies have addressed the presence of aeolian dust in soils and surficial deposits in deserts to provide important geologic and ecologic information bearing on landscape dynamics (1–16). From this body of work, we have improved understanding about: ( i ) current and past sources and flux of dust, hence changing conditions of dust emission; ( ii ) the genesis of desert soils; ( iii ) the influences of aeolian silt and clay on water-infiltration rates in soil; ( iv ) the evolution of desert surfaces (such as desert pavement) relevant to surface stability, as well as the distribution of surface and subsurface water; and ( v ) interrelations among aeolian dust, distribution of plants and soil crust, rain-water runoff, and productivity. Nevertheless, we lack fundamental knowledge about the accumulation history of aeolian dust on most landscapes and about how to discriminate between contributions from parent material and aeolian dust to the biotic system. Although many different methods provide clear evidence for aeolian input into soils (4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13, 17, 18), ecosystem studies would benefit from rapid assessment of aeolian components in soils. Here we demonstrate that magnetic methods, which characterize the type and distribution of iron oxide minerals, can be applied to detect the presence of aeolian dust in young surficial sediments and soils over large arid-land areas. The magnetic results, combined with geochemical and textural analyses, form a basis for understanding the influence of fine-grained aeolian inputs on soil fertility of the central Colorado Plateau, Utah.

Utah↗

Projecting management-relevant change of undeveloped coastal barriers with the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) v1.0

Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time steps. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA. Simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework's utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

Reproductive phenologies in a diverse temperate ant fauna

1. Ant nuptial flights are central to understanding ant life history and ecology but have been little studied. This study examined the timing of nuptial flights, the synchronicity of nuptial flights (as a potential index of mating strategy), and variation in nuptial flights with elevation and among years in a diverse temperate ant fauna. 2. Flights occurred throughout the year, but were concentrated in the beginning of summer and in early fall (autumn). Relative to the entire flight season, closely related species tended to be more likely than expected by chance to fly at similar times, perhaps because of phylogenetic constraints on life history evolution. 3. Flights were relatively synchronous within species for nearly all species considered, but synchronicity did not appear to be a robust estimate of overall mating strategy. 4. Overall patterns in nuptial flights among species and the timing of flights for individual species varied with elevation, but did not vary greatly among years. 5. Although this study is one of the most comprehensive on the reproductive flight phenologies of ants, much remains to be learned about the causes and consequences of such spatial and temporal variation in flight phenology. ?? 2007 The Royal Entomological Society.

Ecological Entomology↗

Influence of niche breadth and position on the historical biogeography of seafaring scincid lizards

Niche breadth and position can influence diversification among closely related species or populations, yet limited empirical data exist concerning the predictability of the outcomes. We explored the effects of these factors on the evolution of the Emoia atrocostata species group, an insular radiation of lizards in the western Pacific Ocean and Indo-Australasia composed of both endemic and widespread species that differ in niche occupancy. We used molecular data and phylogeographical diffusion models to estimate the timing and patterns of range expansion, and ancestral reconstruction methods to infer shifts in ecology. We show evidence of multidirectional spread from a centre of origin in western Micronesia, and that the phyletic diversity of the group is derived from a putative habitat specialist that survives in the littoral zone. This species is composed of paraphyletic lineages that represent stages or possible endpoints in the continuum toward speciation. Several descendant species have transitioned to either strand or interior forest habitat, but only on remote islands with depauperate terrestrial faunas. Our results suggest that the atrocostata group might be in the early phases of a Wilsonian taxon cycle and that the capacity to tolerate salt stress has promoted dispersal and colonization of remote oceanic islands. Divergence itself, however, is largely driven by geographical isolation rather than shifts in ecology.

Biological Journal of the Linnean Society↗

Fourfold polyphyly of the genus formerly known as Upucerthia, with notes on the systematics and evolution of the avian subfamily Furnariinae

The traditional avian subfamily Furnariinae, a group of terrestrial ovenbirds typical of the Andean and Patagonian arid zones, consists of the genera Furnarius , Cinclodes , Geositta , Upucerthia , Chilia , and Eremobius . We investigated phylogenetic relationships within the Furnariinae, with particular attention to the nine species of the genus Upucerthia, using nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences from all genera in the subfamily. Upucerthia was found to be highly polyphyletic, its constituent species forming four non-sister clades: (1) a basal lineage consisting of two Upucerthia species, U. ruficaudus and U. andaecola , as well as the monotypic genera Eremobius and Chilia ; (2) a lineage consisting of U. harterti and U. certhioides , two species behaviorally divergent from other Upucerthia species; (3) a lineage consisting of U. serrana , which is not closely related to any other Upucerthia species; and (4) a lineage, sister to Cinclodes , consisting of the four Upucerthia species U. dumetaria , U. albigula , U. validirostris , and U. jelskii . The larger Furnariinae was also found to be highly polyphyletic; the terrestrial open country ecotype characteristic of this subfamily occurs in four unrelated clades in the family Furnariidae, including a basal lineage as well as derived lineages. Although the large degree of divergence among Upucerthia clades was not previously recognized, owing to ecological, behavioral, and morphological similarities, the groupings correspond closely to relationships suggested by plumage. This is in contrast to studies of other avian genera in which plumage patterns have been shown to be extensively convergent. The generic names Upucerthia and Ochetorhynchus are available for two of the former Upucerthia clades; new generic names may be warranted for the other two.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution↗

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii’s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii↗

Threats posed by the Fungal Kingdom to humans, wildlife, and agriculture

The Fungal Kingdom includes at least six million eukaryotic species and is remarkable with respect to its profound impact on global health, biodiversity, ecology, agriculture, manufacturing, and biomedical research. Approximately 625 fungal species have been reported to infect vertebrates, 200 of which can be human-associated, either as commensals and members of our microbiome or as pathogens that cause infectious diseases. These organisms pose a growing threat to human health with the global increase in the incidence of invasive fungal infections, prevalence of fungal allergy, and the evolution of fungal pathogens resistant to some or all current classes of antifungals. More broadly, there has been an unprecedented and worldwide emergence of fungal pathogens impacting animal and plant biodiversity. Approximately 8,000 species of fungi and Oomycetes are associated with plant disease. Indeed, across agriculture, such fungal diseases of plants include new devastating epidemics of trees and jeopardize food security worldwide by causing epidemics in staple and commodity crops that feed billions. Further, ingestion of mycotoxins contributes to ill health and causes cancer. Coordinated international research efforts, enhanced technology translation, and greater policy outreach by scientists are needed to more fully understand the biology and drivers that underlie the emergence of fungal diseases and to mitigate against their impacts. Here, we focus on poignant examples of emerging fungal threats in each of three areas: human health, wildlife biodiversity, and food security.

mBio↗

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin↗