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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Forecast model for moderate earthquakes near Parkfield, California

Earthquake instability models have possible application to earthquake forecasting because the models simulate both preseismic and coseismic changes of fault slip and ground deformation. In the forecast procedure proposed here, repeated measurements of preseismic fault slip and ground deformation constrain the values of model parameters. The early part of the model simulation corresponds to the available field data, and the subsequent part constitutes an estimate of future faulting and ground deformation. In particular, the time, location, and size of unstable faulting are estimates of the pending earthquake parameters. The forecast accuracy depends on the model realism and parameter resolution. The forecast procedure is applied to fault creep and trilateration data measured near Parkfield, California, where at least five magnitude 5.5 to 6 earthquakes have occurred regularly since 1881, the last in 1966. The quasi-static model consists of a flat vertical plane embedded in an elastic half space. Spacially variable fault slip of strike-slip sense is driven by an increasing regional shear stress but is impeded by a relatively strong patch of brittle, strain-softening fault. The field data are consistent with these approximate values of patch parameters: radius of 3 km, patch center 5 km deep and 8 km southeast of the 1966 epicenter, and maximum brittle strength of 26 bars. Fluctuations in the available field data prevent estimating the earthquake time with any more precision than use of the 21±8 year recurrence interval. However, the model may later give a more precise estimate of the earthquake time if the fault slip rate near the inferred patch increases before the earthquake, as predicted by the model.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS1967

Ground-water research in the U.S.A.

Ground-water reservoirs and the overlying unsaturated zone-collectively, the "subsurface"-have an enormous capacity to supply water to wells and useful plants, to store water to meet future needs for the same purposes, and, under suitable precautions, to accept wastes. This capacity can be exploited on a maximum scale, however, only on the basis of information one or more orders of magnitude greater than that available at present on the distribution, recoverability, and replenishability of subsurface water. Because usable water must be made available, and waste water must be disposed of, at costs of only a cent or a few cents per cubic meter, there is a critical need for research to devise methods of accomplishing these water-management tasks at reasonable cost. Among the chief target areas for research in subsurface hydrology are permeability distribution, including vertical permeability; prediction of the departure of the storage coefficient from the theoretically "instantaneous" property assumed in flow equations; theory of unsaturated flow based on fundamental soil characteristics that can be measured practicably; geochemical relations including the effects of injecting water of one composition into zones occupied by waters of different composition, generation of acid mine water, occurrence of saline water, and salt-fresh-water relations in coastal and other areas; prediction of the fate of wastes injected underground; geophysical techniques both surface and subsurface to extend, at low cost, information obtained by other means; and practical techniques of artificial recharge, especially through wells. ?? 1967.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2013

The utility of atmospheric analyses for the mitigation of artifacts in InSAR

The numerical weather models (NWMs) developed by the meteorological community are able to provide accurate analyses of the current state of the atmosphere in addition to the predictions of the future state. To date, most attempts to apply the NWMs to estimate the refractivity of the atmosphere at the time of satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data acquisitions have relied on predictive models. We test the hypothesis that performing a final assimilative routine, ingesting all available meteorological observations for the times of SAR acquisitions, and generating customized analyses of the atmosphere at those times will better mitigate atmospheric artifacts in differential interferograms. We find that, for our study area around Mount St. Helens (Amboy, Washington, USA), this approach is unable to model the refractive changes and provides no mean benefit for interferogram analysis. The performance is improved slightly by ingesting atmospheric delay estimates derived from the limited local GPS network; however, the addition of water vapor products from the GOES satellites reduces the quality of the corrections. We interpret our results to indicate that, even with this advanced approach, NWMs are not a reliable mitigation technique for regions such as Mount St. Helens with highly variable moisture fields and complex topography and atmospheric dynamics. It is possible, however, that the addition of more spatially dense meteorological data to constrain the analyses might significantly improve the performance of weather modeling of atmospheric artifacts in satellite radar interferograms.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Marine minerals in Alaska — A review of coastal and deep-ocean regions

Minerals occurring in marine environments span the globe and encompass a broad range of mineral categories, forming within varied geologic and oceanographic settings. They occur in coastal regions, either from the continuation or mechanical reworking of terrestrial mineralization, as well as in the deep ocean, from diagenetic, hydrogenetic, and hydrothermal processes. The oceans cover most of the Earth’s surface and as a result, any inventory of global resources is incomplete without the inclusion of marine minerals. This study by the U.S. Geological Survey reviews current knowledge regarding deep-ocean and coastal marine minerals within the marine areas surrounding Alaska, including the Alaska Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). For the purposes of this study, we have divided these areas in to eight regions: (1) Gulf of Alaska seamounts, (2) Chukchi Borderland, (3) Canada Basin, (4) Aleutian Arc, (5) Seward Peninsula, (6) Goodnews Bay, (7) Bristol Bay and Alaska Peninsula, and (8) southern and southeastern Alaska. The Alaska OCS encompasses several areas broadly conducive to marine mineral formation, including extensional basins resulting from an active subduction zone where massive sulfide deposits may form, deep abyssal plains with conditions that may lead to manganese nodule formation, seamounts that can provide substrate for the growth of ferromanganese crusts, and erosional settings and submerged continental crust where placer deposits are found. For deep-ocean hydrothermal minerals and manganese nodules, the Alaska OCS contains prospective regions, including the Canada Basin and the Aleutian Arc; however, no such minerals have yet been identified. We explore the probability that these minerals occur based on reviews of existing geologic and oceanographic data within the relevant sections. In regions far from shore data are limited. Deep-ocean ferromanganese crusts are known to occur in two regions: (1) the Gulf of Alaska seamounts and (2) the Chukchi Borderland in the Arctic Ocean. Limited sampling has occurred in both regions, and along the Chukchi Borderland the sampling was outside of the OCS and the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. Data relevant to coastal minerals is more extensive, and in some places fairly systematic sampling was conducted. Several nearshore placer deposits have been exploited for decades; however, the potential for nearshore extension of terrestrial ore deposits is less well considered. This contribution considers the state of knowledge regarding marine mineral occurrences within the Alaska regions and identifies the data gaps in order to help inform future marine mineral related research efforts around Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

The next generation of products and methodologies to establish biocrusts in degraded ecosystems

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) – thin, coherent soil surface layers aggregated and inhabited by communities of tiny photoautotrophic and heterotrophic organisms – support ecosystem functioning in drylands and influence the Earth system. Biocrust loss due to disturbance, global change and land use leads to altered hydrological function, susceptibility to erosion and diminished biogeochemical cycling, with consequences extending to regional and global environmental quality and ecosystem service provisioning. To restore degraded drylands, specific techniques could inform how to 1. produce biocrust biota ex situ for use as an inoculum in degraded environments and then 2. encourage the establishment of the inoculum in high-stress environments. To re-establish lost biocrusts, a promising pathway could be the integration of adding biocrust biota (inoculation), ensuring that it stays where applied (retention) and softening environmental stresses and limitations (amelioration) at approximately the same time. Several techniques, most of them developed in only the past few years, demonstrate this integration: biocrust sods, cloths, pellets, capsules and slurries. Biocrust sods are fabric-reinforced patches of biocrust growing on soil, produced in farms and transported to and deployed intact in field sites. Biocrust cloths are fabrics and sheets with biocrust biota grown directly on their surface in greenhouse-based fog chambers that can be attached to soil in the field. Biocrust pellets are small, protective pieces of a binder material (often clay) infused with biocrust inoculum. Biocrust capsules are biodegradable gel capsules filled with biocrust inoculum, often with protective substances. Both pellets and capsules are broadcast over degraded soils. Biocrust slurries are semi-liquid suspensions of biocrust inoculum and other solids that are sprayed or spread in degraded sites. Emerging techniques like these have the potential to restore highly functional drylands and their ecosystem services. Potential applications include ecological restoration of dryland areas disturbed by fire, overgrazing, agriculture, mining and other factors or environmental engineering in other contexts such as cultural heritage sites, croplands or human infrastructure. The next-generation techniques for biocrust restoration described here are tools that could be applied to solve small- to medium-scaled challenges now and with increased production efficiency and informed, strategic use of the products, large-scaled challenges in the future.

Drylands↗
USGS2019

Rare earth element mineral deposits in the United States

Because of their unique special chemical properties, many of the metals in the group of rare earth elements (REEs) have essential applications in 21st century technologies. Examples of products that use REEs are cell phones, computers, fluorescent and light-emitting-diode lights, flat-screen television and computer monitors, and in high-strength magnets used by clean energy technologies such as the generators of wind turbines and batteries of hybrid and electric vehicles. REEs are used in many defense applications, such as in components of jet engines, missile guidance systems, antimissile defense systems, satellites, and communication systems. The rare earth elements have become vital to manufacturing numerous high-tech products, which has been accompanied by a large increase in their demand. At the same time, there has been concern by the United States and many other Nations about the near-monopoly of mining, processing, and supply of REEs from one Nation, China. Between 2011 and 2017, China produced approximately 84 percent of the world’s REEs, and during this time the United States only produced REEs between 2012 and 2015. The U.S. production came entirely from the Mountain Pass mine in California, providing only about 4 percent of the world REE supply. Because REEs are essential for technological applications and are primarily supplied by one Nation, there has been an increased concern in identifying new sources of REEs, including economic REE deposits. In response to these concerns, since 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted numerous studies focused on the distribution, geology, and potential resources for the REE-bearing mineral deposits in the United States. The basic characteristics of mineral deposit types that host REE enrichments in the United Sates are summarized in this report, with selected examples. Several types of REE-enriched mineral deposits are reviewed, including deposits in carbonatites, alkaline igneous rocks, sedimentary phosphate-rich rocks (phosphorite), regions containing REE-rich veins, iron oxide deposits containing REE-bearing apatite, monazite-xenotime-bearing placer deposits (heavy-mineral sands), and ion-adsorption clay deposits (REE in granite-derived regolith). A better understanding of these mineral deposits will assist in identifying domestic resources to help alleviate the dependence on imported REEs. The economic development of REE mineral deposits is affected by many factors beyond mining, such as commodity prices and mineral processing costs. Most of the REEs are hosted by minerals that have complex chemical formulas; this presents more challenges to process and extract the REEs. Continued advancements and refinements in mineral processing techniques may allow REE deposits with complex mineralogy to be economically developed in the future.

Circular↗
USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, Carlsbad, New Mexico, April 29-May 2, 2014

Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories, and have developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) that span an interval of time encompassing more than 550 million years. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, post-depositional tectonic events, and geochemical weathering processes that form karst aquifers are varied and complex, and involve biological, chemical, and physical changes. These factors, combined with the diverse climatic regimes under which karst development in these rocks has taken place, result in the unique dual- or triple-porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrogeologic systems typically represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport in these terrains. The dissolution of carbonate rocks and the subsequent development of distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs has resulted in the most exceptional karst areas of the United States being designated as national or state parks; commercial caverns and known privately owned caves number in the tens of thousands. Both public and private properties provide access for scientists to study the flow of groundwater in situ. Likewise, the range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than for any other aquifer type. Karst aquifers and landscapes that form in tropical areas, such as the cockpit karst along the north coast of Puerto Rico, differ greatly from karst landforms in more arid climates, such as the Edwards Plateau in west-central Texas or the Guadalupe Mountains near Carlsbad, New Mexico, where hypogenic processes have played a major role in speleogenesis. Many of these public and private lands also contain unique flora and fauna associated with these karst hydrogeologic systems. As a result, numerous federal, state, and local agencies have a strong interest in the study of karst terrains. Many of the major springs and aquifers in the United States have developed in carbonate rocks, such as the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system in west-central Texas. These aquifers, and the springs that discharge from them, serve as major water-supply sources and as unique ecological habitats. Competition for the water resources of karst aquifers is common, and urban development and the lack of attenuation of contaminants in karst areas can impact the ecosystem and water quality of these aquifers. The concept for developing a platform for interaction among scientists within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) working on karst-related studies evolved from the November 1999 National Ground-Water Meeting of the USGS. As a result, the Karst Interest Group (KIG) was formed in 2000. The KIG is a loose-knit, grass-roots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst science. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the KIG encourages collaborative studies between the different mission areas of the USGS as well as other federal and state agencies, and with researchers from academia and institutes. The KIG also encourages younger scientists by participation of students in the poster and oral sessions. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops that are held near nationally important karst areas. To date (2014) six KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The workshops typically include oral and poster sessions on selected karst-related topics and research, as well as field trips to local karst features. Proceedings of the workshops are published by the USGS and are available online at http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/karst/kig . The first KIG workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, February 13–16, 2001, in the vicinity of the large springs and other karst features of the Floridan aquifer system. The second KIG workshop was held August 20–22, 2002, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in proximity to the carbonate aquifers of the northern Shenandoah Valley and highlighted an invited presentation on karst literature by the late Barry F. Beck of P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates. The third KIG workshop was held September 12–15, 2005, in Rapid City, South Dakota, nearby to karst features in evaporites and limestones of the Madison Group in the Black Hills of South Dakota, including Wind Cave National Park and Jewel Cave National Monument. The workshop also included a featured presentation by Thomas Casadevall, Central Region Director, USGS, on the status of earth science at the USGS and evening trips to Jewel Cave led by Mike Wiles, National Park Service (NPS) and Wind Cave led by Rod Horrocks, NPS. The fourth KIG workshop was held May 27–29, 2008, and hosted by the Hoffman Environmental Research Institute and Center for Cave and Karst Studies at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky, near Mammoth Cave National Park and karst features of the Chester Upland and Pennyroyal Plateau. The workshop featured a late-night field trip into Mammoth Cave with Rickard Toomey and Rick Olsen, NPS. The fifth workshop was held April 26–29, 2011, and was a joint meeting of the USGS KIG and University of Arkansas HydroDays, hosted by the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. The workshop featured an outstanding field trip to the unique karst terrain along the Buffalo National River of the southern Ozarks and a keynote presentation on paleokarst in the United States by Art and Peggy Palmer. This sixth and current 2014 KIG workshop is hosted by the National Cave and Karst Research Institute (NCKRI) in Carlsbad, New Mexico, with Director of NCKRI, George Veni, serving as co-chair of the workshop with Eve Kuniansky, USGS. The session planning committee for this sixth workshop includes Van Brahana, USGS retired and University of Arkansas Professor Emeritus; Tom Byl, USGS and Tennessee State University; Zelda Bailey, former Director of NCKRI and retired Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Boulder Laboratory, Colorado; Patrick Tucci, USGS retired; and Mike Bradley, Allan Clark, Geoff Delin, Daniel Doctor, James Kaufmann, Eve Kuniansky, Randy Orndorff, Larry Spangler, and Dave Weary of the USGS. The karst hydrology field trip on Thursday will be led by Lewis Land (NCKRI karst hydrologist) and the optional Friday field trip on the geology of Carlsbad Caverns National Park will be led by George Veni. The keynote speaker is Dr. Penelope Boston, Director of Cave and Karst Studies at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, and Academic Director at NCKRI, who will address the future of karst research. Additionally, there is a featured presentation “Irish karst and its management,” by Caoimhe Hickey, The Geological Survey of Ireland, preceding a panel discussion on “Collaboration During Times of Limited Resources.” The extended abstracts of USGS authors were peer reviewed and approved for publication by the U.S. Geological Survey. Articles submitted by university researchers and other federal and state agencies did not go through the formal USGS peer review and approval process, and therefore may not adhere to our editorial standards or stratigraphic nomenclature and is not research conducted or data collected by the USGS. However, all articles had at a minimum of two peer reviews, and all articles were edited for consistency of appearance in the published Proceedings. The use of trade, firm or product names in any article is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The USGS, Office of Groundwater, provides technical support for the Karst Interest Group website and public availability of the Proceedings from these workshops, and the USGS Groundwater Resources Program funds the publication costs. Finally, the cover illustration is the work of Ann Tihansky, USGS, used since the first KIG workshop in 2000.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Zircon-hosted melt inclusion record of silicic magmatism in the Mesoproterozoic St. Francois Mountains terrane, Missouri: Origin of the Pea Ridge iron oxide-apatite rare earth element deposit and implications for regional crustal pathways of mineralization

Voluminous silicic magmatism was coeval with iron ore mineralization in the St. Francois Mountains terrane in southeast Missouri, part of the broader Mesoproterozoic Granite-Rhyolite province along the eastern margin of Laurentia. Some of the iron deposits contain extraordinary endowments of critical elements, such as the Pea Ridge iron oxide-apatite (IOA) deposit, which has an average grade of ~12 wt% rare earth oxides in breccia pipes that flank the ore body. To assess the role of silicic magmatism in the genesis of the Pea Ridge deposit, we present a high-spatial resolution study of zirconhosted melt inclusions from rhyolitic ash-flow tuffs. Melt inclusion data are combined with textural, geochemical, and geochronological analyses of zircon hosts to elucidate the magmatic-hydrothermal evolution of the Pea Ridge system. Two contemporaneous silicic igneous centers in the St. Francois Mountains terrane, Bourbon and Eminence, were studied for comparison. Pea Ridge melt inclusions are trachydacitic to rhyolitic (~63-79 wt% SiO2, ~5.6-11.7 wt% Na2O+K2O) with very high Cl in the least-evolved and most alkaline melt inclusions (~2,000-5,000 ppm Cl). Rare earth elements (REE) in melt inclusions have identical chondrite-normalized patterns to the mineralized breccia pipes, but with systematically lower absolute concentrations. Haplogranite ternary pressures range from ~0.5-10 kbar, with an average of ~2-3 kbar (7-12 km depth), and liquidus temperatures are ~850-950 °C, with an average of ~920 °C. Silicate and phosphate mineral inclusions have compositions that overlap minerals from the iron ore body and breccia pipes, recording a transition from igneous to hydrothermal zircon growth. Igneous iron oxide inclusions have compositions that indicate Pea Ridge magmas were reduced to moderately oxidized (log fO2 of -0.8 to -1.84 NNO). Zircons from two Pea Ridge samples have 207Pb/206Pb concordia ages of 1456 ± 9 Ma and 1467 ± 13 Ma that overlap published ages for the breccia pipes and iron ore zones of the Pea Ridge deposit. A population of texturally and chemically disrupted zircons have discordant domains that correspond to high Fe, U, and REE concentrations, consistent with the unique geochemical attributes of the IOA-REE ore body. Inherited cores in Pea Ridge and Bourbon zircons have concordant 207Pb/206Pb dates of 1550-1618 Ma, providing direct evidence of cratonic basement beneath these centers. Oxygen isotope data for inherited and autocrystic igneous zircons span from mantle to crustal values (18Ozircon=5.5-7.9‰). Our data are consistent with a model in which metasomatized mantle components were mixed with cratonic and accreted crustal material in a back-arc or rifted segment of a volcanic arc, with ore fluids derived from Cl-rich melts to transport Fe and REE in a long-lived (tens of Myr), pulsed, magmatic-hydrothermal system. Bourbon, which also possesses IOA mineralization, shares key petrologic similarities with the Pea Ridge system, whereas Eminence, which is not mineralized, has disparate geochemical and isotopic signatures that indicate it formed in a different crustal setting. The location of Pea Ridge and Bourbon along a cratonic margin may have been important in focusing silicic melts and mineralization in the upper crust, serving as a guide for future exploration efforts.

Missouri↗
USGS2021

A multiproxy database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records

Holocene climate reconstructions are useful for understanding the diverse features and spatial heterogeneity of past and future climate change. Here we present a database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records. The database gathers paleoclimate time series from 184 terrestrial and marine sites, including 381 individual proxy records. The records span at least 4000 of the last 12 000 years (median duration of 10 725 years) and have been screened for resolution, chronologic control, and climate sensitivity. Records were included that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features. The database is shared in the machine readable Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format and includes geochronologic data for generating site-level time-uncertain ensembles. This publicly accessible and curated collection of proxy paleoclimate records will have wide research applications, including, for example, investigations of the primary features of ocean–atmospheric circulation along the eastern margin of the North Pacific and the latitudinal response of climate to orbital changes. The database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12863843.v1 (Routson and McKay, 2020).

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2010

The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault

[1] The similarity of seismograms recorded by two seismic stations demonstrate that the 31 October 2007 moment magnitude M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake is a repeat of a 1955 M L 5.5 earthquake. Both occurred on Oppenheimer et al.'s (1990) Zone V “stuck patch” on the central Calaveras fault, providing new support for their model of Calaveras fault earthquake activity. We suggest that Zone V fails only in a family of recurring M ∼ 5.4–5.5 earthquakes. The 1955 and 2007 earthquakes are the penultimate and ultimate Zone V events. Earthquakes in 1891 and 1864 are possible earlier Zone V events. The next Zone V event is not expected in the next few decades, assuming a time‐dependent recurrence model: the mean forecast date is 2064 (2035–2104, 95% confidence range). We further suggest that Zones I, II, III, and IV fail in recurring M ∼ 5.1–5.3, M ∼ 5.6–5.8, M ∼ 6.1–6.3, and M ∼ 4.9–5.0 earthquakes, respectively. If our earthquake recurrence model is correct, the next Zone I event is overdue and could occur anytime, and M 5–6 earthquakes should not occur on Zones II, III, and IV before 2014, 2012, and 2026, respectively. We cannot rule out the possibility that Zone VI, which lies at the southern end of the Mission Seismic Trend, where the southern Hayward and central Calaveras faults appear to connect at depth, fails aseismically or in large events on the southern Hayward fault, such as last occurred in 1868, or in large events on the adjoining northern Calaveras fault segment.

California↗
USGS2024

Awakening of Maunaloa linked to melt shared from Kilauea’s mantle source

Maunaloa—the largest active volcano on Earth—erupted in 2022 after its longest known repose period (~38 years) and two decades of volcanic unrest. This eruptive hiatus at Maunaloa encompasses most of the ~35-year-long Puʻuʻōʻō eruption of neighboring Kīlauea, which ended in 2018 with a collapse of the summit caldera and an unusually voluminous (~1 km 3 ) rift eruption. A long-term pattern of such anticorrelated eruptive behavior suggests that a magmatic connection exists between these volcanoes within the asthenospheric mantle source and melting region, the lithospheric mantle, and/or the volcanic edifice. The exact nature of this connection is enigmatic. In the past, the distinct compositions of lavas from Kīlauea and Maunaloa were thought to require completely separate magma pathways from the mantle source of each volcano to the surface. Here, we use a nearly 200-yr record of lava chemistry from both volcanoes to demonstrate that melt from a shared mantle source within the Hawaiian plume may be transported alternately to Kīlauea or Maunaloa on a timescale of decades. This process led to a correlated temporal variation in 206 Pb/ 204 Pb and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr at these volcanoes since the early 19th century with each becoming more active when it received melt from the shared source. Ratios of highly over moderately incompatible trace elements (e.g., Nb/Y) at Kīlauea reached a minimum from ~2000 to 2010, which coincides with an increase in seismicity and inflation at the summit of Maunaloa. Thereafter, a reversal in Nb/Y at Kīlauea signals a decline in the degree of mantle partial melting at this volcano and suggests that melt from the shared source is now being diverted from Kīlauea to Maunaloa for the first time since the early to mid-20th century. These observations link a mantle-related shift in melt generation and transport at Kīlauea to the awakening of Maunaloa in 2002 and its eruption in 2022. Monitoring of lava chemistry is a potential tool that may be used to forecast the behavior (e.g., eruption rate and frequency) of these adjacent volcanoes on a timescale of decades. A future increase in eruptive activity at Maunaloa is likely if the temporal increase in Nb/Y continues at Kīlauea.

Hawaii↗
USGS2011

Impacts of climate change on the growing season in the United States

Understanding the effects of climate change on the vegetative growing season is key to quantifying future hydrologic water budget conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey modeled changes in future growing season length at 14 basins across 11 states. Simulations for each basin were generated using five general circulation models with three emission scenarios as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, watershed model developed to simulate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on watershed response. PRMS was modified to include a growing season calculation in this study. The growing season was examined for trends in the total length (annual), as well as changes in the timing of onset (spring) and the end (fall) of the growing season. The results showed an increase in the annual growing season length in all 14 basins, averaging 27–47 days for the three emission scenarios. The change in the spring and fall growing season onset and end varied across the 14 basins, with larger increases in the total length of the growing season occurring in the mountainous regions and smaller increases occurring in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast regions. The Clear Creek basin, 1 of the 14 basins in this study, was evaluated to examine the growing season length determined by emission scenario, as compared to a growing season length fixed baseline condition. The Clear Creek basin showed substantial variation in hydrologic responses, including streamflow, as a result of growing season length determined by emission scenario.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2007

Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

Climate scientists have concluded that the earth’s surface air temperature warmed by 0.6 °C during the 20th century, and that warming induced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is likely to continue in the 21st century, accompanied by changes in the hydrologic cycle. Climate change has important implications in the Catskill region of southeastern New York State, because the region is a source of water supply for New York City. We used the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test to evaluate annual, monthly, and multi-month trends in air temperature, precipitation amount, stream runoff, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the region during 1952–2005 based on data from 9 temperature sites, 12 precipitation sites, and 8 stream gages. A general pattern of warming temperatures and increased precipitation, runoff, and PET is evident in the region. Regional annual mean air temperature increased significantly by 0.6 °C per 50 years during the period; the greatest increases and largest number of significant upward trends were in daily minimum air temperature. Daily maximum air temperature showed the greatest increase during February through April, whereas minimum air temperature showed the greatest increase during May through September. Regional mean precipitation increased significantly by 136 mm per 50 years, nearly double that of the regional mean increase in runoff, which was not significant. Regional mean PET increased significantly by 19 mm per 50 years, about one-seventh that of the increase in precipitation amount, and broadly consistent with increased runoff during 1952–2005, despite the lack of significance in the mean regional runoff trend. Peak snowmelt as approximated by the winter–spring center of volume of stream runoff generally shifted from early April at the beginning of the record to late March at the end of the record, consistent with a decreasing trend in April runoff and an increasing trend in maximum March air temperature. This change indicates an increased supply of water to reservoirs earlier in the year. Additionally, the supply of water to reservoirs at the beginning of winter is greater as indicated by the timing of the greatest increases in precipitation and runoff—both occurred during summer and fall. The future balance between changes in air temperature and changes in the timing and amount of precipitation in the region will have important implications for the available water supply in the region.

New York↗
USGS2010

Marine-target craters on Mars? An assessment study

Observations of impact craters on Earth show that a water column at the target strongly influences lithology and morphology of the resultant crater. The degree of influence varies with the target water depth and impactor diameter. Morphological features detectable in satellite imagery include a concentric shape with an inner crater inset within a shallower outer crater, which is cut by gullies excavated by the resurge of water. In this study, we show that if oceans, large seas, and lakes existed on Mars for periods of time, marine-target craters must have formed. We make an assessment of the minimum and maximum amounts of such craters based on published data on water depths, extent, and duration of putative oceans within “contacts 1 and 2,” cratering rate during the different oceanic phases, and computer modeling of minimum impactor diameters required to form long-lasting craters in the seafloor of the oceans. We also discuss the influence of erosion and sedimentation on the preservation and exposure of the craters. For an ocean within the smaller “contact 2” with a duration of 100,000 yr and the low present crater formation rate, only ˜1–2 detectable marine-target craters would have formed. In a maximum estimate with a duration of 0.8 Gyr, as many as 1400 craters may have formed. An ocean within the larger “contact 1-Meridiani,” with a duration of 100,000 yr, would not have received any seafloor craters despite the higher crater formation rate estimated before 3.5 Gyr. On the other hand, with a maximum duration of 0.8 Gyr, about 160 seafloor craters may have formed. However, terrestrial examples show that most marine-target craters may be covered by thick sediments. Ground penetrating radar surveys planned for the ESA Mars Express and NASA 2005 missions may reveal buried craters, though it is uncertain if the resolution will allow the detection of diagnostic features of marine-target craters. The implications regarding the discovery of marine-target craters on Mars is not without significance, as such discoveries would help address the ongoing debate of whether large water bodies occupied the northern plains of Mars and would help constrain future paleoclimatic reconstructions.

Meteoritics and Planetary Science↗
USGS2020

Are the stress drops of small earthquakes good predictors of the stress drops of moderate-to-large earthquakes?

The stress drops of small earthquakes often exhibit spatial patterns of variability. If moderate and large earthquakes follow the same spatial patterns, the stress drops of possible future damaging earthquakes could be better predicted by considering the stress drops of nearby small events. Better stress drop predictability could reduce ground-motion uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) and Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). I find that for an internally consistent stress drop catalog of M1.8-3.1 events in southern California, the stress drops of the bigger earthquakes are predictable from the nearby smaller events. However, this catalog only weakly spatially correlates with another catalog of M3.0-5.8 earthquakes, and is spatially uncorrelated with five other stress drop catalogs of M≥3.4 earthquakes. For southern California events M5.5-7.5, stress drops compiled from the literature are weakly spatially correlated with the stress drops of the M1.8-3.1 events, although the correlations are not statistically significant. The lack of strong spatial correlation may be due to actual differences in the controlling factors of stress drop, for example dynamic weakening in moderate-to-large earthquakes. Alternatively, a stronger spatial correlation may exist that is obscured by methodological heterogeneity and large errors in the stress drop estimates. Either way, the stress drops of small earthquakes do not appear to be good predictors of the stress drops of nearby moderate-to-large earthquakes, at least for current techniques of stress drop estimation. If these results are representative, small-earthquake stress drops are not currently useful for substantially reducing uncertainty in PSHA and EEW.

California↗
USGS2017

Tellurium

Tellurium (Te) is a very rare element that averages only 3 parts per billion in Earth’s upper crust. It shows a close association with gold and may be present in orebodies of most gold deposit types at levels of tens to hundreds of parts per million. In large-tonnage mineral deposits, such as porphyry copper and seafloor volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits, sulfide minerals may contain hundreds of parts per million tellurium, although the orebodies likely have overall concentrations of 0.1 to 1.0 parts per million tellurium. Tellurium is presently recovered as a primary ore from only two districts in the world; these are the gold-tellurium epithermal vein deposits located adjacent to one another at Dashuigou and Majiagou (Sichuan Province) in southwestern China, and the epithermal-like mineralization at the Kankberg deposit in the Skellefteå VMS district of Västerbotten County, Sweden. Combined, these two groups of deposits account for about 15 percent (about 70 metric tons) of the annual global production of between 450 and 470 metric tons of tellurium. Most of the world’s tellurium, however, is produced as a byproduct of the mining of porphyry copper deposits. These deposits typically yield concentrations of 1 to 4 percent tellurium in the anode slimes recovered during copper refining. Present production of tellurium from the United States is solely from the anode slimes at ASARCO LLC’s copper refinery in Amarillo, Texas, and may total about 50 metric tons per year. The main uses of tellurium are in photovoltaic solar cells and as an additive to copper, lead, and steel alloys in various types of machinery. The environmental data available regarding the mining of tellurium are limited; most concerns to date have focused on the more-abundant metals present in the large-tonnage deposits from which tellurium is recovered as a byproduct. Global reserves of tellurium are estimated to be 24,000 metric tons, based on the amount of tellurium likely contained in global copper reserves and on a 50 percent recovery rate from refinery anode slimes during the commonly used electrolytic process, also known as solvent extraction-electrolytic refining. If the more economical solvent-leach process—a process that does not recover tellurium—is increasingly used in the future to recover lower grades of copper from porphyry and other large-tonnage deposits, then additional high-grade tellurium-rich gold deposits may become new primary sources for tellurium, particularly epithermal vein deposits associated with alkaline magmatism.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2021

Improving the usability of Galileo and Voyager images of Jupiter’s moon, Europa

NASA's Voyager 1, Voyager 2, and Galileo spacecraft acquired hundreds of images of Jupiter's moon Europa. These images provide the only moderate- to high-resolution views of the moon's surface and are therefore a critical resource for scientific analysis and future mission planning. Unfortunately, uncertain knowledge of the spacecraft's position and pointing during image acquisition resulted in significant errors in the location of the images on the surface. The result is that adjacent images are poorly aligned, with some images displaced by more than 100 km from their correct location. These errors severely degrade the usability of the Voyager and Galileo imaging data sets. To improve the usability of these data sets, we used the U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Software for Imagers and Spectrometers to build a nearly global image tie-point network with more than 50,000 tie points and 135,000 image measurements on 481 Galileo and 221 Voyager images. A global least-squares bundle adjustment of our final Europa tie-point network calculated latitude, longitude, and radius values for each point by minimizing residuals globally, and resulted in root mean square (RMS) uncertainties of 246.6 m, 307.0 m, and 70.5 m in latitude, longitude, and radius, respectively. The total RMS uncertainty was 0.32 pixels. This work enables direct use of nearly the entire Galileo and Voyager image data sets for Europa. We are providing the community with updated NASA Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility Spacecraft, Planet, Instrument, C-matrix (pointing), and Events kernels, mosaics of Galileo images acquired during each observation sequence, and individual processed and projected level 2 images.

Earth and Space Science↗
USGS1998

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a M w = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗