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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Shaping the coast: Accounting for the human wildcard in projections of future change

Coastal change and evolution are the product of physical drivers (e.g., waves) tightly coupled with human behavior. As climate change impacts intensify, demand is increasing for information on where, when, and how coastal areas may change in the future. Although considerable research investments have been made in understanding the physical drivers and processes that modify and shape coastal environments, many do not account for human behavior, compromising the accuracy of comprehensive future change predictions. We outline four social science approaches—historic case studies, simulations, longitudinal studies, and longitudinal studies supported by experimental data—that can be coupled with physical change information to support transdisciplinary understanding of future change. A fundamental need for each approach is more and better empirical data to better gauge human behavior. In addition, foundational investments in transdisciplinary collaboration help research teams support the integration of these approaches.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2016

Kriging and local polynomial methods for blending satellite-derived and gauge precipitation estimates to support hydrologic early warning systems

Robust estimates of precipitation in space and time are important for efficient natural resource management and for mitigating natural hazards. This is particularly true in regions with developing infrastructure and regions that are frequently exposed to extreme events. Gauge observations of rainfall are sparse but capture the precipitation process with high fidelity. Due to its high resolution and complete spatial coverage, satellite-derived rainfall data are an attractive alternative in data-sparse regions and are often used to support hydrometeorological early warning systems. Satellite-derived precipitation data, however, tend to underrepresent extreme precipitation events. Thus, it is often desirable to blend spatially extensive satellite-derived rainfall estimates with high-fidelity rain gauge observations to obtain more accurate precipitation estimates. In this research, we use two different methods, namely, ordinary kriging and κ-nearest neighbor local polynomials, to blend rain gauge observations with the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates in data-sparse Central America and Colombia. The utility of these methods in producing blended precipitation estimates at pentadal (five-day) and monthly time scales is demonstrated. We find that these blending methods significantly improve the satellite-derived estimates and are competitive in their ability to capture extreme precipitation.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2008

Western Mountain Initiative: predicting ecosystem responses to climate change

Mountain ecosystems of the western United States provide irreplaceable goods and services such as water, timber, biodiversity, and recreational opportunities, but their responses to climatic changes are complex and not well understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI), a collaboration between USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists, catalyzes assessment and synthesis of the effects of disturbance and climate change across western mountain areas, focusing on national parks and surrounding national forests. The WMI takes an ecosystem approach to science, integrating research across science disciplines at scales ranging from field studies to global trends.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

Abbreviated bibliography on energy development—A focus on the Rocky Mountain Region

Energy development of all types continues to grow in the Rocky Mountain Region of the western United States. Federal resource managers increasingly need to balance energy demands, effects on the natural landscape and public perceptions towards these issues. To assist in efficient access to valuable information, this abbreviated bibliography provides citations to relevant information for myriad of issues for which resource managers must contend. The bibliography is organized by seven large topics with various sup-topics: broad energy topics (energy crisis, conservation, supply and demand, etc.); energy sources (fossil fuel, nuclear, renewable, etc.); natural landscape effects (climate change, ecosystem, mitigation, restoration, and reclamation, wildlife, water, etc.); human landscape effects (attitudes and perceptions, economics, community effects, health, Native Americans, etc.); research and technology; international research; and, methods and modeling. A large emphasis is placed on the natural and human landscape effects.

Idaho;Montana;Wyoming;Utah;Colorado;New Mexico;Ari↗
USGS2019

Climate adaptation Science Centers—Annual report for 2018

2018 marked the 10-year anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center! With the passage of the fiscal year 2018 budget on March 23, 2018, our program name was changed from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC). The eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers were renamed Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). The name changes more clearly align the national and regional centers and emphasize their focus on meeting natural resource adaptation needs. Although the program has a new name, our mission has not changed. We are still hard at work delivering science to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate. During the past 10 years, the NCASC and the eight regional CASCs funded over 425 science projects and built a network of research partners, resource management stakeholders, interdisciplinary staff, fellows, and early career researchers. In celebration of our work and accomplishments over the last 10 years, the NCASC began a monthly web post series on “10 Things You May Not Know” about topics our science has focused on, including drought, glaciers, and wildfire. Additionally, CASCs that had completed their initial hosting agreement with the USGS underwent a formal review and recompetition process. New hosting agreements were awarded to the Southwest and North Central CASCs in 2018. Read the 2018 annual report to learn more about the CASCs' great science, partnerships, capacity building, and more from 2018.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Mountain goat declines in a protected, interior, native population

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site ( n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Montana↗
USGS2020

North Carolina State climate report

Our scientific understanding of the climate system strongly supports the conclusion that North Carolina’s climate has changed in recent decades and the expectation that large changes—much larger than at any time in the state’s history—will occur if current trends in greenhouse gas concentrations continue. Even under a scenario where emissions peak around 2050 and decline thereafter, North Carolina will experience substantial changes in climate. The projected changes with the highest level of scientific confidence include increases in temperature, increases in summer absolute humidity, increases in sea level, and increases in extreme precipitation. It is also likely that there will be increases in the intensity of the strongest hurricanes. A full appreciation for past and future changes in North Carolina’s climate requires a global perspective. Earth’s climate has warmed substantially since the late 19th century, with most of that warming occurring in the last 50 years. This warming trend is clear from global temperature records and many other indicators, including rising global sea levels and rapid decreases in arctic sea ice cover. Scientists have very high confidence that this warming is largely due to human activities that have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. Exhaustive research has examined other potential causes of this warming, and the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is the only plausible cause that is consistent with the observed data and the physics that governs the climate system.

North Carolina↗
USGS2015

Synthesis on Quaternary aeolian research in the unglaciated eastern United States

Late-middle and late Pleistocene, and Holocene, inland aeolian sand and loess blanket >90,000 km 2 of the unglaciated eastern United States of America (USA). Deposits are most extensive in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV) and Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP), areas presently lacking significant aeolian activity. They provide evidence of paleoclimate intervals when wind erosion and deposition were dominant land-altering processes. This study synthesizes available data for aeolian sand deposits in the LMV, the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain (EGCP) and the ACP, and loess deposits in the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain (MACP). Data indicate: (a) the most recent major aeolian activity occurred in response to and coincident with growth and decay of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS); (b) by ∼40 ka, aeolian processes greatly influenced landscape evolution in all three regions; (c) aeolian activity peaked in OIS2; (d) OIS3 and OIS2 aeolian records are in regional agreement with paleoecological records; and (e) limited aeolian activity occurred in the Holocene (EGCP and ACP). Paleoclimate and atmospheric-circulation models (PCMs/ACMs) for the last glacial maximum (LGM) show westerly winter winds for the unglaciated eastern USA, but do not resolve documented W and SW winds in the SEACP and WNW and N winds in the MACP. The minimum areal extent of aeolian deposits in the EGCP and ACP is ∼10,000 km 2 . For the LMV, it is >80,000 km 2 . Based on these estimates, published PCMs/ACMs likely underrepresent the areal extent of LGM aeolian activity, as well as the extent and complexity of climatic changes during this interval.

Aeolian Research↗
USGS2021

A U.S.-China EcoPartnership study of disturbed wetland vegetation in West Dongting Lake, China

West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re-engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future.

West Dongting Lake↗
USGS2017

Creating multithemed ecological regions for macroscale ecology: Testing a flexible, repeatable, and accessible clustering method

Understanding broad-scale ecological patterns and processes often involves accounting for regional-scale heterogeneity. A common way to do so is to include ecological regions in sampling schemes and empirical models. However, most existing ecological regions were developed for specific purposes, using a limited set of geospatial features and irreproducible methods. Our study purpose was to: (1) describe a method that takes advantage of recent computational advances and increased availability of regional and global data sets to create customizable and reproducible ecological regions, (2) make this algorithm available for use and modification by others studying different ecosystems, variables of interest, study extents, and macroscale ecology research questions, and (3) demonstrate the power of this approach for the research question—How well do these regions capture regional-scale variation in lake water quality? To achieve our purpose we: (1) used a spatially constrained spectral clustering algorithm that balances geospatial homogeneity and region contiguity to create ecological regions using multiple terrestrial, climatic, and freshwater geospatial data for 17 northeastern U.S. states (~1,800,000 km 2 ); (2) identified which of the 52 geospatial features were most influential in creating the resulting 100 regions; and (3) tested the ability of these ecological regions to capture regional variation in water nutrients and clarity for ~6,000 lakes. We found that: (1) a combination of terrestrial, climatic, and freshwater geospatial features influenced region creation, suggesting that the oft-ignored freshwater landscape provides novel information on landscape variability not captured by traditionally used climate and terrestrial metrics; and (2) the delineated regions captured macroscale heterogeneity in ecosystem properties not included in region delineation—approximately 40% of the variation in total phosphorus and water clarity among lakes was at the regional scale. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of this method for creating customizable and reproducible regions for research and management applications.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Experimental drought suppresses amphibian pathogen yet intensifies transmission and disrupts protective skin microbiome

Shifting precipitation regimes driven by global climate change can alter vertebrate behavior and host-symbiont relationships, potentially compromising host resistance to pathogen invasion. In Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity hotspot, prior research identified drought as a key factor disrupting the skin microbiome, contributing to a die-off of pumpkin toadlets due to the invasive waterborne fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, observational studies cannot disentangle the direct effect of moisture on Bd growth from increased amphibian activity during wet breeding seasons. Using field enclosures, we experimentally tested the influence of drought conditions on host microhabitat use, Bd disease dynamics, and the composition and predicted Bd-inhibitory function of cutaneous bacterial communities. Each enclosure housed ecologically realistic densities of Brachycephalus pitanga , a micro-endemic pumpkin toadlet. We simulated a short-term drought in half of the enclosures using translucent tarp coverings. To track individual toadlets, we identified their unique markings and collected skin swabs biweekly over 3 months. We then implemented molecular techniques to quantify Bd loads and characterize skin bacterial diversity and composition over time. Our findings indicate that while drought may reduce overall Bd loads on hosts, this effect is partially offset by an increase in the use of water-filled areas of the enclosures and by a disruption of the protective host skin microbiome. This study provides valuable insights into the cascading impacts of climate change on animal behavior, host-symbiont interactions, and disease dynamics.

Atlantic Forest↗
USGS2022

Environmental drivers of cyanobacterial abundance and cyanotoxin production in backwaters of the Upper Mississippi River

High densities of cyanobacteria in aquatic ecosystems can cause impacts to ecosystem services because they serve as a poor-quality food resource, produce toxins and can indirectly cause a variety of other negative impacts to water quality. There are many hypotheses about the potential environmental drivers of variation in cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity, but these hypotheses have rarely been considered in combination and rarely been examined in large river ecosystems. Here we use monthly data from backwater habitats of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) to evaluate associations between environmental conditions and cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity (microcystin and anatoxin-a) that would be expected based on several hypotheses. Backwaters in the Mississippi River vary in flushing rate, temperature, turbidity, nutrient availability, water depth and vegetative cover. We find support for hypotheses that suggest physical conditions in backwaters (flushing rate, temperature, turbidity, rooted vegetation cover and water depth) and nutrient availability influence cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity. We then used structural equation modeling to incorporate several hypotheses into a causal modeling framework, which indicated that backwater connectivity (flushing) strongly influences cyanobacterial abundance via the regulation of water temperature, and that nutrient availability strongly influences the presence of microcystin concentrations above our detection limit. Our data suggest that management of backwater connectivity could influence cyanobacterial abundance and toxicity in UMR backwaters. Reconnecting backwaters (via alteration of levees) could serve as a local adaptation to minimize the effects of climate change and excessive nutrient loading.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

A pilot study to assess the influence of infiltrated stormwater on groundwater: Hydrology and trace organic contaminants

Underground infiltration basins (UIBs) mimic the natural hydrologic cycle by allowing stormwater to recharge local groundwater aquifers. However, little is known about the potential transport of organic contaminants to receiving groundwater. We conducted a pilot study in which we collected paired grab samples of stormwater runoff flowing into two UIBs (inflow) and shallow groundwater adjacent to the UIBs. Samples were collected coincident with three rain events and analyzed for volatile organic compounds, semi-volatile organic compounds, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides. Few contaminants were detected in groundwater, compared with inflow, and groundwater concentrations were typically an order of magnitude less. With one exception (trichloroethene), all groundwater concentrations were at least two orders of magnitude below available guidance or screening values. This short communication highlights information gaps in understanding the hydrologic connectivity between UIBs and receiving groundwater and potential consequent contaminant transport to the subsurface from varying climatic conditions.

Minnesota↗
USGS2019

Drivers and impacts of water level fluctuations in the Mississippi River delta: Implications for delta restoration

This review synthesizes the knowledge regarding the environmental forces affecting water level variability in the coastal waters of the Mississippi River delta and relates these fluctuations to planned river diversions. Water level fluctuations vary significantly across temporal and spatial scales, and are subject to influences from river flow, tides, vegetation, atmospheric forcing, climate change, and anthropogenic activities. Human impacts have strongly affected water level variability in the Mississippi River delta and other deltas worldwide. Collectively, the research reviewed in this article is important for enhancing environmental, economic, and social resilience and sustainability by assessing, mitigating, and adapting to geophysical changes that will cascade to societal systems in the coming decades in the economically and environmentally important Mississippi River delta. Specifically, this information provides a context within which to evaluate the impacts of diversions on the hydrology of the Mississippi delta and creates a benchmark for the evaluation of the impact of water level fluctuations on coastal restoration projects worldwide.

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Shining a light on Laurentian Great Lakes cisco (Coregonus artedi): How ice coverage may impact embryonic development

Changes in winter conditions, such as decreased ice coverage and duration, have been observed in the Laurentian Great Lakes for more than 20 years. Such changes have been hypothesized to be linked to low Coregonus spp. survival to age-1 as most cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) populations are autumn spawners whose embryos incubate under ice throughout the winter. The quantity of light during winter is regulated by ice coverage, and light affects embryo survival and development in some teleosts. We experimentally evaluated how cisco embryos from lakes Superior and Ontario respond to three light treatments that represented day-light intensity under 0–10, 40–60, and 90–100% ice coverage. Embryonic response measures included two developmental factors (embryo survival and incubation period) and two morphological traits (length-at-hatch and yolk-sac volume). Embryo survival was highest at the medium light treatment and decreased at high and low treatments for both populations, suggesting cisco may be adapted to withstand some light exposure from inter-annual variability in ice coverage. Light intensity had no overall effect on length of incubation. Increasing light intensity decreased length-at-hatch in Lake Superior but had no effect in Lake Ontario. Yolk-sac volume was positively correlated with increasing light in Lake Superior and negatively correlated in Lake Ontario. Contrasting responses in embryo development between lakes suggests differences in populations’ response to light is flexible. Our results provide a step towards better understanding the high variability observed in coregonine recruitment and may help predict what the future of this species may look like under current climate trends.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2021

Measuring adrenal and reproductive hormones in hair from southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) use sea ice to access marine mammal prey. In Alaska’s Southern Beaufort Sea, the declining availability of sea ice habitat in summer and fall has reduced opportunities for polar bears to routinely hunt on the ice for seals, their primary prey. This reduced access to prey may result in physiological stress with subsequent potential consequences to reproductive function (physiological changes that accompany reproduction), which can be measured via reproductive hormones. Hormone concentrations in hair can be used as a minimally invasive alternative to serum concentrations, which must come from animal captures. Hair samples also provide a long-term average measurement of hormone concentrations that is not influenced by short-term fluctuations like that of serum. The aim of this study was (1) to determine if a radioimmunoassay could be used to measure adrenal and reproductive hormones in polar bear hair, and (2) to determine what the relationship is between these hormones and other reproductive, condition, and demographic parameters of polar bears. We successfully validated this method for cortisol, progesterone, estradiol, and testosterone through the analysis of hair and serum of 141 free-ranging polar bears. We found that while hair cannot be used to estimate serum hormone concentrations during the breeding season, hormone concentrations in hair can be used to measure reproductive function in polar bears. Further, our findings support trends in previous studies measuring hormone concentrations in serum. We found that adrenal and some reproductive hormones were positively correlated in hair samples of females. Associations between hormone concentrations in hair and serum did not vary relative to reproductive status of adult females. Serum testosterone increased throughout the breeding season for adult males and was significantly associated with body mass index (BMI). Our research supports the use of hair as a measure of reproductive function in polar bears and allows us to monitor the future effects of climate change on polar bear physiology.

Alaska, Yukon↗
USGS2017

The effect of Holocene temperature fluctuations on the evolution and ecology of Neotoma (woodrats) in Idaho and northwestern Utah

Animals respond to climatic change by adapting or by altering distributional patterns. How an animal responds is influenced by where it is positioned within its geographic range; the probability of extirpation is increased near range boundaries. Here, we examine the impact of Holocene climatic fluctuations on a small mammalian herbivore, the bushy-tailed woodrat (Neotoma cinerea), at five locations within south central Idaho and northwestern Utah. Previous work demonstrated that woodrats adapt to temperature shifts by altering body size. We focus here on the relationship between body mass, temperature, and location within the geographic range. Body mass is estimated by measuring fossil fecal pellets, a technique validated in earlier work. Overall, we find the predicted phenotypic response to climate change: Animals were larger during cold periods, and smaller during warmer episodes. However, we also identify several time periods when changes in environmental temperature exceeded the adaptive flexibility of N. cinerea. A smaller-bodied species, the desert woodrat (N. lepida) apparently invaded lower elevation sites during the mid-Holocene, despite being behaviorally and physically subordinate to N. cinerea. Analysis of contemporary patterns of body size and thermal tolerances for both woodrat species suggests this was because of the greater heat tolerance of N. lepida. The robust spatial relationship between contemporary body size and ambient temperature is used as a proxy to reconstruct local climate during the Holocene. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2011

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983–1987, 1991–1997, and 2000–2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO 4 ), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual “boomerang” pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Puerto Rico↗