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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Hit snooze: An imperiled hibernator assesses spring snow conditions to decide whether to terminate hibernation or reenter torpor

Many animals follow annual cycles wherein physiology and behavior change seasonally. Hibernating mammals undergo one of the most drastic seasonal alterations of physiology and behavior, the timing of which can have significant fitness consequences. The environmental cues regulating these profound phenotypic changes will heavily influence whether hibernators acclimate and ultimately adapt to climate change. Hence, identifying the cues and proximate mechanisms responsible for hibernation termination timing is critical. Northern Idaho ground squirrels ( Urocitellus brunneus )—a rare, endemic species threatened with extinction—exhibit substantial variation in hibernation termination phenology, but it is unclear what causes this variation. We attached geolocators to free-ranging squirrels to test the hypothesis that squirrels assess surface conditions in spring before deciding whether to terminate seasonal heterothermy or reenter torpor. Northern Idaho ground squirrels frequently reentered torpor following a brief initial emergence from hibernacula and were more likely to do so earlier in spring or when challenged by residual snowpack. Female squirrels reentered torpor when confronted with relatively shallow snowpack upon emergence, whereas male squirrels reentered torpor in response to deeper spring snowpack. This novel behavior was previously assumed to be physiologically constrained in male ground squirrels by testosterone production required for spermatogenesis and activated by the circannual clock. Assessing surface conditions to decide when to terminate hibernation may help buffer these threatened squirrels against climate change. Documenting the extent to which other hibernators can facultatively alter emergence timing by reentering torpor after emergence will help identify which species are most likely to persist under climate change.

Ecological and Evolutionary Physiology↗

USGS2009

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2018

Remaining populations of an upland stream fish persist in refugia defined by habitat features at multiple scales

Aim Conserving stream biota could require strategies that preserve habitats conveying resistance to ecological impacts of changing land use and climate. Retrospective analyses of species’ responses to anthropogenic disturbances can inform such strategies. We developed a hierarchical framework to contrast environmental conditions underlying persistence versus extirpation of an imperilled stream fish, Candy Darter ( Etheostoma osburni ), over decades of changing land use. The decline of E. osburni may broadly represent the challenge of conserving sensitive freshwater species in intensively used upland environments. Location New River drainage, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We surveyed fish and habitat in historically occupied sites to identify population refugia, and used multivariate and spatial analyses to address three questions: (a) what are the environmental correlates of refugia? (b) are the pathways by which land use impacts instream habitat constrained by catchment- and/or segment-scale features? and (c) are E. osburni distributional dynamics spatially structured and explained by fine sediment and warm stream temperatures? Results We confirmed a recently localized distribution similar to other upland species, marked by at least seven extirpations from streams throughout E. osburni 's southern range. Catchment-scale features primarily constrained land use and finer-scale habitat, leading to either extirpations or population-supporting refugia defined by features at multiple scales. Refugium habitats contained cooler temperatures and less fine sediment. Rare mismatches between persistence and habitat suitability were explained by network location , suggesting unmeasured environmental gradients and/or dispersal contributed to distributional dynamics. Main conclusions We provided insight at multiple spatial scales into how aquatic species’ distributions become fragmented and localized. Our results demonstrate that natural landscape heterogeneity imparts spatially variable resistance of sensitive species to intensive land uses. By recognizing the scale-specific features that buffer populations from extirpation, conservation strategies could be tailored to protect naturally occurring refugium habitats and focus restoration in systems where such habitats are broadly lacking.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2015

Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods . Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle) . During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail , and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered . However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods . Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms , perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements , is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses , understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

Current Biology↗

USGS2011

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [C OMBO (“COral Mortality and Bleaching Output”)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. C OMBO calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running C OMBO under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1–1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2011

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2025

Divergent responses of seed banks and aboveground vegetation to drought and deluge in grasslands across an elevational gradient

Increased variability in precipitation associated with climate change creates extreme conditions of drought and deluge that can have profound effects on the abundance and composition of plant communities. Responses to these extremes likely vary across climatic gradients and depend on local plant community composition, which includes the emergent, aboveground vegetation as well as belowground seed banks. Because seed banks can both buffer the effects of environmental change and influence the future trajectories of communities, it is critical to understand seed bank responses to precipitation extremes in relation to the aboveground vegetation and how patterns vary across environmental gradients. Here we quantified the responses of aboveground and seed bank communities at five perennial grass-dominated sites across an elevational gradient to 6 years of extreme drought and deluge, by implementing experimental water exclusion and water addition treatments. Responses were stronger for drought than for deluge. Drought decreased abundance aboveground, while seed bank abundances were generally unaffected. Similarly, drought decreased richness and diversity of aboveground vegetation at intermediate elevations, without concurrent changes in seed banks. Surprisingly, the lowest and middle elevation sites showed stronger shifts in functional composition and dissimilarity in response to treatments, despite the expectation of greater buffering in seed banks in more arid environments. The relatively attenuated responses of seed bank communities to drought and deluge suggest potential for resistance and recovery, though species and functional composition may show greater responses to change particularly in more arid, lower elevation sites.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS1993

A spatial simulation model of hydrology and vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands

The objective of this study was to construct a spatial simulation model of the vegetation dynamics in semi-permanent prairie wetlands. A hydrologic submodel estimated water levels based on precipitation, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration. A vegetation submodel calculated the amount and distribution of emergent cover and open water using a geographic information system. The response of vegetation to water-level changes was based on seed bank composition, seedling recruitment and establishment, and plant survivorship. The model was developed and tested using data from the Cottonwood Lake study site in North Dakota. Data from semi-permanent wetland P1 were used to calibrate the model. Data from a second wetland, P4, were used to evaluate model performance. Simulation results were compared with actual water data from 1797 through 1989. Test results showed that differences between calculated and observed water levels were within 10 cm 75% of the time. Open water over the past decade ranged from 0 to 7% in wetland P4 and from 0 to 8% in submodel simulations. Several model parameters including evapotranspiration and timing of seedling germination could be improved with more complex techniques or relatively minor adjustments. Despite these differences the model adequately represented vegetation dynamics of prairie wetlands and can be used to examine wetland response to natural or human-induced climate change.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2023

Gulf Islands National Seashore regional sediment budget research and data needs—Workshop series summary

Executive Summary The National Park Service (NPS), in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), recognizes the need to quantify the sediment budget of the barrier islands within the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GINS) to understand the coastal processes affecting island resiliency. To achieve this goal, identifying and quantifying the physical parameters that drive long-term change is necessary to model the processes that are both generative and terminal in island evolution and capture island response to long-term human alteration and climatic patterns. For example, measuring change across periods of storminess is more effective at assessing island resiliency than measuring change resulting from a single storm impact. Understanding changes to the physical environment over time is key to successfully predicting island responses to future storm impacts, human alteration, and sea-level rise and is necessary for effective decision making and management response. Yet, the diversity of factors affecting natural and cultural resources necessitates a strategic approach to data collection priorities that can inform sediment budget quantification and integrated resource management. This study sought to advance sediment budget modeling efforts by conducting a “Needs Assessment Workshop” at the GINS. The purpose of the workshop was to identify and prioritize the specific research and data needs regarding the sediment budget at the GINS that can enhance the NPS efforts to conserve the islands’ natural resources, cultural resources, and the facilities and infrastructure that support both conservation and visitor use of those resources. This effort explored two research questions: (1) “what research and data needs exist for the sediment budget at Gulf Islands National Seashore” (research question 1) and (2) “how can research to address these needs capitalize on regional partnerships to advance natural and cultural resource conservation at Gulf Islands National Seashore” (research question 2)? The workshop was conducted virtually in a two-part, two-day series. The workshop series was organized by researchers from North Carolina State University in collaboration with NPS and USGS staff and was facilitated by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration staff. The workshop series (two paired, sequential, partial-day workshops) addressed two target audiences: (1) NPS and USGS staff (April workshop) and (2) regional Federal, State, county, and nongovernmental organization staff, including NPS and USGS staff (May workshop). A total of four workshop sessions were held, comprising two sessions with each target audience. The workshop series intended to identify sediment management research and data needs that could enhance natural and cultural resource stewardship at the GINS. One objective was to share information about regional sediment transport and management, available sediment management plans, and predictive modeling capabilities, including geomorphologic and hydrodynamic predictive models. This information was shared through a series of presentations by park managers and NPS and USGS researchers that identified park issues and available capabilities and data. The second objective was to elicit research and data needs, with a primary goal of assessing the importance and urgency of the identified needs. This assessment was partly determined by requesting that the workshop participants identify and prioritize research themes through polls, comments, and discussion. The polls explicitly asked participants to qualitatively evaluate the importance (not at all, slightly, somewhat, very, or extremely) and urgency (not at all, slightly, somewhat, very, or extremely) of the thematically grouped research and data needs. These evaluations were plotted and shared during the workshop to visualize how the relative importance ( x -axis) and relative urgency ( y -axis) of each “need,” relative to other needs, to identify the most necessary (importance) and time-sensitive (urgent) items, thereby allowing an enhanced, holistic understanding of the sediment budget at GINS. Results of the poll are published as a USGS data release. The assessment results revealed that the most important and urgent research and data needs included mapping (for example, elevation, habitat, and cultural resources), a regional sediment budget and management plan, and the dynamic modeling of sediment processes. During the workshop, these issues were visualized using scatter plots to demonstrate the relative importance and urgency of each theme, provide descriptive statistics, and elicit discussion. This format of iterative presentation, discussion, and prioritization allowed the project team to effectively accomplish their objective of identifying important and urgent research needs for natural and cultural resource stewardship at the GINS. Through the workshop, it was determined that expanded communication with the broader research community was needed to coordinate research activities and streamline potential funding opportunities and that research and policy should be integrated through a structured decision-making process. At the conclusion of the workshop, an administered poll showed that the presentations effectively identified data and research needs and that the goals of the workshop were achieved. The results suggest that this type of needs-assessment workshop can effectively identify existing research capabilities and data, determine and prioritize research and data needs, and address how these efforts can use regional partnerships to aid natural and cultural resource conservation and management at National Parks.

Florida, Mississippi↗

USGS2022

Life history strategies of stream fishes linked to predictors of hydrologic stability

Life history theory provides a framework to understand environmental change based on species strategies for survival and reproduction under stable, cyclical, or stochastic environmental conditions. We evaluated environmental predictors of fish life history strategies in 20 streams intersecting a national park within the Potomac River basin in eastern North America. We sampled stream sites during 2018–2019 and collected 3801 individuals representing 51 species within 10 taxonomic families. We quantified life history strategies for species from their coordinates in an ordination space defined by trade-offs in spawning season duration, fecundity, and parental care characteristic of opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium strategies. Our analysis revealed important environmental predictors: Abundance of opportunistic strategists increased with low-permeability soils that produce flashy runoff dynamics and decreased with karst terrain (carbonate bedrock) where groundwater inputs stabilize stream flow and temperature. Conversely, abundance of equilibrium strategists increased in karst terrain indicating a response to more stable environmental conditions. Our study indicated that fish community responses to groundwater and runoff processes may be explained by species traits for survival and reproduction. Our findings also suggest the utility of life history theory for understanding ecological responses to destabilized environmental conditions under global climate change.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2021

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2014

Geographic coincidence of richness, mass, conservation value, and response to climate of U.S. land birds

Distributional patterns across the United States of five avian community breeding-season characteristics—community biomass, richness, constituent species' vulnerability to extirpation, percentage of constituent species' global abundance present in the community (conservation index, CI), and the community's position along the ecological gradient underlying species composition (principal curve ordination score, PC)—were described, their covariation was analyzed, and projected effects of climate change on the characteristics and their covariation were modeled. Higher values of biomass, richness, and CI were generally preferred from a conservation perspective. However, higher values of these characteristics often did not coincide geographically; thus regions of the United States would differ in their value for conservation depending on which characteristic was chosen for setting conservation priorities. For instance, correlation patterns between characteristics differed among Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Among the five characteristics, community richness and the ecological gradient underlying community composition (PC) had the highest correlations with longitude, with richness declining from east to west across the contiguous United States. The ecological gradient underlying composition exhibited a demarcation near the 100th meridian, separating the contiguous United States grossly into two similar-sized avian ecological provinces. The combined score (CS), a measure of species' threat of decline or extirpation, exhibited the strongest latitudinal pattern, declining from south to north. Over &sim;75% of the lower United States, projected changes in June temperature and precipitation to year 2080 were associated with decreased averaged values of richness, biomass, and CI, implying decreased conservation value for birds. The two ecological provinces demarcated near the 100th meridian diverged from each other, with projected changes in June temperatures and precipitation from the year 2000 to 2080 suggesting increased ecological dissimilarity between the eastern and western halves of the lower United States with changing climate. Anticipated climate-related changes in the five characteristics by 2080 were more weakly correlated with latitude or longitude then the responses themselves, indicating less distinct geographic patterns of characteristic change than in the characteristics themselves. Climate changes projected for 2080 included geographic shifts in avian biomass, CS, and PC values, a moderate overall decline in CI, and general decline in species richness per site.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2002

Comparative effects of climate on ecosystem nitrogen and soil biogeochemistry in U.S. national parks. FY 2001 Annual Report (Res. Rept. No. 94)

In 1998, the USGS Global Change program funded research for a network of Long-Term Reference Ecosystems initially established in national parks and funded by the National Park Service. The network included Noland Divide, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee; Pine Canyon, Big Ben National park, Texas; West Twin Creek, Olympic National Park, Washingtona?? Wallace Lake, Isle Royale National Park, Michigan; and the Asik watershed, Noatak National Preserve, Alaska. The watershed ecosystem model was used since this approach permits additional statistical power in detection of trends among variables, and the watershed in increasingly a land unit used in resource management and planning. The ecosystems represent a major fraction of lands administered by the National Park Service, and were chosen generally for the contrasts among sites. For example, tow of the site, Noland and West Twin, are characterized by high precipitation amounts, but Noland receives some of the highest atmospheric nitrogen (N) inputs in North America. In contrast, Pine Canyon and Asik are warm and cold desert sites respectively. The Asik watershed receives <1% the atmospheric N inputs Noland receives. The Asik site is at the northern extent (treeline) of the boreal biome in the North America while Wallace is at the southern ecotone between boreal and northern hardwoods. The research goal for these sites is to gain a basic understanding of ecosystem structure and function, and the response to global change especially atmospheric inputs and climate.

Report↗

USGS2015

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2011

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983–1987, 1991–1997, and 2000–2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO 4 ), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual “boomerang” pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2012

Nile Delta vegetation response to Holocene climate variability

A 7000 yr palynologic record from Burullus Lagoon, Nile Delta, Egypt, is assessed to investigate changes in terrestrial vegetation in response to Nile flow. Previous studies in this region have shown that sea-level rise in the early to mid-Holocene, and markedly increased human land use during the past several centuries, altered vegetation in and around the lagoon. The pollen record from this study documents changes in delta vegetation that likely reflect variations in Nile flow. We suggest that Cyperaceae pollen is a sensitive marker of precipitation over the Nile headwaters and the resultant Nile flow. Decreases in Cyperaceae pollen, interpreted as a marker for diminished Nile flow, as well as the increase in relative abundance of microscopic charcoal, occurred at ca. 6000–5500, ca. 5000, ca. 4200, and ca. 3000 cal. yr B.P. (calibrated years before present). These correspond to extreme regional and global aridity events associated with a more southerly mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes, also recorded by other proxy studies, indicate that several marked regional drought events affected the Nile Delta region and impacted ancient Egyptian and Middle Eastern civilizations.

Nile Delta↗

USGS2011

Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

Wisconsin↗