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USGS2012

The impact of antecedent fire area on burned area in southern California coastal ecosystems

Frequent wildfire disasters in southern California highlight the need for risk reduction strategies for the region, of which fuel reduction via prescribed burning is one option. However, there is no consensus about the effectiveness of prescribed fire in reducing the area of wildfire. Here, we use 29 years of historical fire mapping to quantify the relationship between annual wildfire area and antecedent fire area in predominantly shrub and grassland fuels in seven southern California counties, controlling for annual variation in weather patterns. This method has been used elsewhere to measure leverage: the reduction in wildfire area resulting from one unit of prescribed fire treatment. We found little evidence for a leverage effect (leverage = zero). Specifically our results showed no evidence that wildfire area was negatively influenced by previous fires, and only weak relationships with weather variables rainfall and Santa Ana wind occurrences, which were variables included to control for inter-annual variation. We conclude that this is because only 2% of the vegetation burns each year and so wildfires rarely encounter burned patches and chaparral shrublands can carry a fire within 1 or 2 years after previous fire. Prescribed burning is unlikely to have much influence on fire regimes in this area, though targeted treatment at the urban interface may be effective at providing defensible space for protecting assets. These results fit an emerging global model of fire leverage which position California at the bottom end of a continuum, with tropical savannas at the top (leverage = 1: direct replacement of wildfire by prescribed fire) and Australian eucalypt forests in the middle (leverage ∼ 0.25).

California↗

USGS2015

Distribution and dynamics of mangrove forests of South Asia

Mangrove forests in South Asia occur along the tidal sea edge of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These forests provide important ecosystem goods and services to the region's dense coastal populations and support important functions of the biosphere. Mangroves are under threat from both natural and anthropogenic stressors; however the current status and dynamics of the region's mangroves are poorly understood. We mapped the current extent of mangrove forests in South Asia and identified mangrove forest cover change (gain and loss) from 2000 to 2012 using Landsat satellite data. We also conducted three case studies in Indus Delta (Pakistan), Goa (India), and Sundarbans (Bangladesh and India) to identify rates, patterns, and causes of change in greater spatial and thematic details compared to regional assessment of mangrove forests. Our findings revealed that the areal extent of mangrove forests in South Asia is approximately 1,187,476 ha representing &sim;7% of the global total. Our results showed that from 2000 to 2012, 92,135 ha of mangroves were deforested and 80,461 ha were reforested with a net loss of 11,673 ha. In all three case studies, mangrove areas have remained the same or increased slightly, however, the turnover was greater than the net change. Both, natural and anthropogenic factors are responsible for the change and turnover. The major causes of forest cover change are similar throughout the region; however, specific factors may be dominant in specific areas. Major causes of deforestation in South Asia include (i) conversion to other land use (e.g. conversion to agriculture, shrimp farms, development, and human settlement), (ii) over-harvesting (e.g. grazing, browsing and lopping, and fishing), (iii) pollution, (iv) decline in freshwater availability, (v) floodings, (vi) reduction of silt deposition, (vii) coastal erosion, and (viii) disturbances from tropical cyclones and tsunamis. Our analysis in the region's diverse socio-economic and environmental conditions highlights complex patterns of mangrove distribution and change. Results from this study provide important insight to the conservation and management of the important and threatened South Asian mangrove ecosystem.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake ( Lampropeltis californiae ) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2025

Where to restore and conserve? A regional benefit cost analysis of coral reef protection and restoration for coastal flood resilience

Momentum is growing for the management of coral reefs as a strategy to reduce climate risks in tropical coastlines. Yet, quantification of the life-time costs, impacts, and benefits remains limited. This study provides one of the first rigorous, spatially explicit, regional-scale Benefit:Cost Analyses (BCA) for coral reef restoration and was designed to meet the BCA requirements of major hazard mitigation funding and programs. This study simulates coastal flooding using a hydrodynamic model under different scenarios representing current coral reef conditions, reef degradation, and reef restoration. These coastal flood maps are used to estimate socioeconomic damages, which are included in a BCA to assess cost-effectiveness and priority areas for coral reef conservation and restoration. The United States Virgin Islands is used as a case study given recent impacts from storms and their new policy that declares reefs as natural infrastructure. The results show that flood risk across the islands of Saint Croix, Saint John, and Saint Thomas is $51.4 million USD per year. Annually, coral reefs prevent flood damages to 481 people and $43.6 million USD of infrastructure, which represents 87 % of the flood risk. These results identify the communities that could receive the greatest benefits from coral conservation and restoration, which overlap significantly. Coral reef restoration is found to be a cost-effective strategy for flood mitigation although how reefs are restored matters. Hybrid coral reef restoration provides greater flood mitigation benefits than ecological restoration, but its cost-effectiveness is overall lower given its greater costs. Many coastal areas have benefit:cost ratios exceeding 1.5, which complies with typical government agencies’ requirements for accessing hazard mitigation funds. This valuation framework helps provide rigorous regional-scale quantification of nature-based coastal protection solutions for coastal risk management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2013

Distribution and exploitation of Nile perch Lates niloticus in relation to stratification in Lake Victoria, East Africa

Stratification restricts habitable areas forcing fish to balance between favourable temperature and minimum dissolved oxygen requirements. Acoustic surveys conducted during the stratified and isothermal periods on tropical Lake Victoria indicated that stratification of temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) affected vertical distribution of Nile perch. There was higher mean temperature (25.6 ± 0.5 °C) and lower DO (6.4 ± 1.8 mg/l) during stratified period compared to the isothermal period (mean temperature 24.9 ± 0.3 °C; mean DO 7.3 ± 0.6 mg/l). Higher mean densities of Nile perch were recorded in the coastal (0.44 ± 0.03) and deep (0.27 ± 0.02 g/m 3 ) strata during the stratified compared to the isothermal season (coastal: 0.24 ± 0.01; deep: 0.12 ± 0.02 g/m 3 ). In addition, Nile perch density in the upper 0–40 m depth layers in the coastal and deep strata increased by over 50% from the isothermal to the stratified season. Daily landings from 65 motorised fishing boats between October 2008 and September 2010 show higher mean catch (26.29 ± 0.17 kg/boat/day) during stratified compared to the isothermal (23.59 ± 0.15) season. Thermal stratification apparently compresses the habitat available to Nile perch and can potentially result in higher exploitation. Managers should evaluate the potential benefits of instituting closed seasons during the stratified period, and stock assessment models should take into account the seasonal niche compression.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2005

Simulation of integrated surface-water/ground-water flow and salinity for a coastal wetland and adjacent estuary

The SWIFT2D surface-water flow and transport code, which solves the St Venant equations in two dimensions, was coupled with the SEAWAT variable-density ground-water code to represent hydrologic processes in coastal wetlands and adjacent estuaries. A sequentially coupled time-lagged approach was implemented, based on a variable-density form of Darcy's Law, to couple the surface and subsurface systems. The integrated code also represents the advective transport of salt mass between the surface and subsurface. The integrated code was applied to the southern Everglades of Florida to quantify flow and salinity patterns and to evaluate effects of hydrologic processes. Model results confirm several important observations about the coastal wetland: (1) the coastal embankment separating the wetland from the estuary is overtopped only during tropical storms, (2) leakage between the surface and subsurface is locally important in the wetland, but submarine ground-water discharge does not contribute large quantities of freshwater to the estuary, and (3) coastal wetland salinities increase to near seawater values during the dry season, and the wetland flushes each year with the onset of the wet season. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2013

The suitability of a simplified isotope-balance approach to quantify transient groundwater-lake interactions over a decade with climatic extremes

Groundwater inflow to a subtropical seepage lake was estimated using a transient isotope-balance approach for a decade (2001–2011) with wet and dry climatic extremes. Lake water δ18O ranged from +0.80 to +3.48 &permil;, reflecting the 4 m range in stage. The transient δ18O analysis discerned large differences in semiannual groundwater inflow, and the overall patterns of low and high groundwater inflow were consistent with an independent water budget. Despite simplifying assumptions that the isotopic composition of precipitation (δP), groundwater inflow, and atmospheric moisture (δA) were constant, groundwater inflow was within the water-budget error for 12 of the 19 semiannual calculation periods. The magnitude of inflow was over or under predicted during periods of climatic extreme. During periods of high net precipitation from tropical cyclones and El Niño conditions, δP values were considerably more depleted in 18O than assumed. During an extreme dry period, δA values were likely more enriched in 18O than assumed due to the influence of local lake evaporate. Isotope balance results were most sensitive to uncertainties in relative humidity, evaporation, and δ18O of lake water, which can limit precise quantification of groundwater inflow. Nonetheless, the consistency between isotope-balance and water-budget results indicates that this is a viable approach for lakes in similar settings, allowing the magnitude of groundwater inflow to be estimated over less-than-annual time periods. Because lake-water δ18O is a good indicator of climatic conditions, these data could be useful in ground-truthing paleoclimatic reconstructions using isotopic data from lake cores in similar settings.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Isotopic and geochemical assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater resources of Guam, Mariana Islands, to intra- and inter-annual variations in hydroclimate

Assessing the sensitivity of groundwater systems to hydroclimate variability is critical to sustainable management of the water resources of Guam, US territory. We assess spatial and temporal variability of isotopic and geochemical compositions of vadose and phreatic groundwater sampled from cave drip sites and production wells, respectively, to better understand the vulnerability of the freshwater lens on Guam to variability in hydroclimate. We independently evaluate the existing conceptual model of the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer that is largely based on physical, as opposed to geochemical, observations. Sampling was conducted from 2008 to 2015, over which rainfall gradually increased. Major ion geochemistry and Sr isotope values of groundwater show varying influence from soil, limestone bedrock, and seawater. Geochemical modeling that can explain spatial variability in groundwater Na+ and Mg2+ concentrations and Sr/Ca and 87Sr/86 Sr values indicates that groundwater compositions are dominantly controlled by mixing of freshwater with seawater and water-rock interaction. Differences between amount-weighted annual average precipitation δ18 O values and groundwater δ18 O values indicate a recharge bias toward the wet season, consistent with other tropical carbonate island aquifer settings. Intra- and inter-annual variations in Na+ concentrations and δ18 O values in groundwater reflect sensitivity of recharge to seasonal variations in rainfall amount and changes in annual rainfall amounts. Our results indicate the influence of multiple modes of recharge on groundwater compositions and spatial variability in the sensitivity of groundwater to seawater mixing. This sensitivity of the freshwater lens points to the vulnerability of groundwater resources to changes in recharge associated with climate, land-use change, and increases in population.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2005

The 2003 phreatomagmatic eruptions of Anatahan volcano - Textural and petrologic features of deposits at an emergent island volcano

Stratigraphic and field data are used in conjunction with textural and chemical evidence (including data from scanning electron microscope, electron microprobe, X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, and instrumental neutron activation analysis) to establish that the 2003 eruption of Anatahan volcano was mainly phreatomagmatic, dominated by explosive interaction of homogeneous composition low-viscosity crystal-poor andesite magma with water. The hydromagmatic mode of eruption contributed to the significant height of initial eruptive columns and to the excavation and eruption of altered rock debris from the sub-volcanic hydrothermal system. Volatile contents of glass inclusions in equilibrium phenocrysts less abundances of these constituents in matrix glass times the estimated mass of juvenile magma indicate minimum emissions of 19 kt SO2 and 13 kt Cl. This petrologic estimate of SO2 emission is an order-of-magnitude less than an estimate from TOMS. Similarly, inferred magma volumes from the petrologic data are an order of magnitude greater than those modeled from deformation data. Both discrepancies indicate additional sources of volatiles, likely derived from a separate fluid phase in the magma. The paucity of near-source volcanic-tectonic earthquakes preceding the eruption, and the dominance of sustained long-period tremor are attributed to the ease of ascent of the hot low-viscosity andesite, followed by a shallow phreatomagmatic mode of eruption. Phreatomagmatic eruptions are probably more common at emergent tropical island volcanoes, where shallow fresh-water lenses occur at near-sea-level vents. These relations suggest that phreatomagmatic explosions contributed to the formation of many of the near-sea-level craters and possibly even to the small calderas at the other Mariana islands.

Northern Mariana Islands↗

USGS2019

Globally detected volcanic lightning and umbrella dynamics during the 2014 eruption of Kelud, Indonesia

Volcanic lightning shows considerable promise as a monitoring and research tool to characterize explosive eruptions. Its key strengths are rapid and remote detection, because the radio signals produced by lightning can propagate thousands of km at the speed of light. Despite these tantalizing properties, the scientific work on volcanic lightning has only recently started gaining momentum. Much more is needed to understand what lightning reveals about the evolution of an eruption in near-real time. Here we examine the timing and energy release of lightning generated by the eruption of Kelud volcano in Indonesia on 13 February 2014, as detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The eruption column reached at least 26 km above sea level, representing the highest plume since the advent of global lightning networks in the last decade. Therefore, it provides valuable constraints on the electrification of end-member, sustained Plinian columns. We investigate the lightning in context with satellite images, photographs, and other published studies. Results show that the earliest satellite-detected activity was a thermal anomaly at ~15:46 UTC, corresponding to a directed blast at the onset of eruption (and only a few lightning strokes). Following a brief pause, the eruption produced a sustained column and umbrella cloud that spread outward into the tropical stratosphere. Rates of umbrella expansion provide an average mass eruption rate (MER) in the range of 8 × 10 7 –1 × 10 8 kg s −1 . A more nuanced picture emerges from the time-varying MERs (determined between each satellite pass), which show rapid intensification during the first hour of eruption, followed by constant MER for about an hour, and waning toward the end (after ~17:50 UTC). At this stage, decreasing flux into the umbrella cloud coincides with column instability and formation of pyroclastic density currents, as recorded by photos from the ground ~17:45 UTC. We infer that some of the erupted mass partitioned into ground-hugging currents, leading to a lower apparent MER. Interestingly, there is not a 1:1 correlation between lightning intensity and MER over the course of eruption. Stroke rates increase sharply within the first 30–40 min (during rapid intensification of the plume), and then drop below 2 strokes per min once the MER remains constant. This suggests that electrification was controlled by the rate of increase in MER—in other words, the acceleration of particles out of the vent. We also show that lightning stroke-rates and energies are greatest within 50 km of the vent, even when the ash cloud extends >200 km downwind, indicating that lightning was focused in the regions of highest particle concentration and turbulence. Overall, we conclude that abrupt changes in lightning rates are clearly linked to changes in eruption behavior, and that rapid detection could aid monitoring efforts to characterize eruption rates or styles.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2020

The 1951 eruption of Mount Lamington, Papua New Guinea: Devastating directed blast triggered by small-scale edifice failure

The catastrophic explosion of Mount Lamington volcano, Papua New Guinea on January 21, 1951 produced a devastating pyroclastic density current (PDC) that knocked down dense tropical rainforest over an area of 230 km 2 and killed approximately 3000 people. We present results of a field reinvestigation of the 1951 PDC deposit combined with an analysis of the available photographs and eyewitness accounts of the eruption first published in the fundamental work of G. A. M. Taylor (1958). We have concluded that the six-days-long pre-climactic activity before the 1951 eruption (which included felt local seismicity, frequent ash-laden explosions of vulcanian type, bulging of the volcano slope accompanied with landslides) was associated with shallow-level intrusion of a highly viscous magma body (cryptodome/dome) of andesitic composition with a volume of approximately 0.01 km 3 . This intrusion destabilized Mount Lamington's prehistoric intra-crater lava dome. On January 21 the destabilized dome gravitationally collapsed and produced a relatively small-volume debris avalanche, the deposit of which was not recognized during Taylor's original investigation. The debris avalanche had a volume of approximately 0.02–0.04 km 3 , travelled a distance (L) of 8.5 km and had the ratio of vertical drop (H) to runout (L) of 0.14. The edifice collapse decompressed the intruding cryptodome and triggered its explosive fragmentation. Photographs of the climactic explosion show that the eruptive cloud initially rose vertically but subsequently collapsed upon the terrain around the vent, and formed a PDC which flowed radially outward. The enhanced northward propagation of the PDC to a maximum distance of 13 km reveals that the northern breach in the ancient crater's high walls influenced the distribution of the deposit. In the studied NE-N-NW sector of the devastated area, in the zone proximal to the volcano, the PDC emplaced a normally graded layer of coarse ash and lapilli mixed in the base with picked-up soil and plant fragments. The layer gradually becomes thinner and finer-grained with distance from the volcano. The PDC deposit has a volume of approximately 0.025 km 3 and consists of approximately 80% juvenile rock fragments derived from the explosively fragmented cryptodome. The remaining 20% consists of accidental clasts derived from the old volcanic edifice. The juvenile material is crystal-rich andesite with a unimodal vesicularity distribution (4 to 36%). The reconstructed eruption sequence, the PDC tree blowdown pattern and characteristics of the PDC deposit are similar to those of catastrophic laterally-directed blasts of volcanoes Bezymianny in 1956, Mount St.Helens in 1980, and Soufriere Hills, Montserrat in 1997. In contrast to the cases of these “classic” lateral blasts, the blast cloud of Lamington was initially vertically-directed before collapsing to produce a PDC. We speculate that the climactic explosion of Mount Lamington was initially vertical because the rupture surface of the triggering sector collapse intersected the apex of the intruding cryptodome (it exposed a subhorizontal surface of the cryptodome apex), while at Bezymianny, Mount St.Helens, and Soufriere Hills the rupture intersected the main body of the cryptodome/dome, and exposed their steeply inclined surfaces.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2008

A 1000-year sediment record of recurring hypoxia off the Mississippi River: The potential role of terrestrially-derived organic matter inputs

A suite of inorganic and organic geochemical tracers and a low-oxygen tolerant benthic faunal index ('PEB') were measured in a 14C-dated 2+??m long gravity core collected on the Louisiana shelf adjacent to the Mississippi River delta to study potential millennium-scale low-oxygen events. Periodic down-core excursions in the PEB index throughout the core suggest recurring, natural bottom water low-oxygen events that extend back ??? 1000??14C years. Select trace element and biomarker distributions in these same sediments were examined as potential tracers of past hypoxic events and to help distinguish between marine versus terrestrial processes involved in organic carbon production. In discrete sediment horizons where the PEB index was elevated, redox-sensitive vanadium concentrations were consistently depleted, excursions in sedimentary ??13C suggest periodic, preferential terrestrial inputs, and the concentrations of two sterol biomarkers (sitosterol and ??-stigmasterol) also showed concurrent enrichments. If the PEB index successfully records ??? 1000??14C year-scale low-oxygen events, then the distribution of these geochemical tracers can be interpreted to corroborate the view that naturally occurring low-oxygen bottom water conditions have existed on the inner Louisiana continental shelf, not only in recent times, but also over at least the last 1000??14C years. These data support the general hypothesis that historic, low-oxygen bottom water conditions on the Louisiana shelf are likely tied to periods of increased fluvial discharge and associated wetland export in the absence of modern river levees. Enhanced river discharge and associated material export would both stimulate enhanced in situ organic carbon production and foster water column stratification. Such periodic elevated river flows during the last millennium can be linked to climate fluctuations and tropical storm activity. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Chemistry↗

USGS2006

The origin of neap-spring tidal cycles

The origin of oceanic tides is a basic concept taught in most introductory college-level sedimentology/geology, oceanography, and astronomy courses. Tides are typically explained in the context of the equilibrium tidal theory model. Yet this model does not take into account real tides in many parts of the world. Not only does the equilibrium tidal model fail to explicate amphidromic circulation, it also does not explain diurnal tides in low latitude positions. It likewise fails to explain the existence of tide-dominated areas where neap-spring cycles are synchronized with the 27.32-day orbital cycle of the Moon (tropical month), rather than with the more familiar 29.52-day cycle of lunar phases (synodic month). Both types of neap-spring cycles can be recognized in the rock record. A complete explanation of the origin of tides should include a discussion of dynamic tidal theory. In the dynamic tidal model, tides resulting from the motions of the Moon in its orbit around the Earth and the Earth in its orbit around the Sun are modeled as products of the combined effects of a series of phantom satellites. The movement of each of these satellites, relative to the Earth's equator, creates its own tidal wave that moves around an amphidromic point. Each of these waves is referred to as a tidal constituent. The geometries of the ocean basins determine which of these constituents are amplified. Thus, the tide-raising potential for any locality on Earth can be conceptualized as the result of a series of tidal constituents specific to that region. A better understanding of tidal cycles opens up remarkable opportunities for research on tidal deposits with implications for, among other things, a more complete understanding of the tidal dynamics responsible for sediment transport and deposition, changes in Earth-Moon distance through time, and the possible influences tidal cycles may exert on organisms. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2020

Using multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)

A high degree of uncertainty exists for understanding and predicting coastal estuarine response to changing climate, land-use, and sea-level conditions, leaving geologic records as a best-proxy for constraining potential outcomes. With the majority of the world's population focused in coastal regions, understanding how local systems respond to global, regional, and even local pressures is key in developing mitigation, adaptation, and management plans. The geomorphology of Mobile Bay in southeast Alabama (USA) has evolved considerably (e.g., bayhead delta back-stepping) over the late Holocene in response to global and regional sea-level and climate change. Smaller-scale geomorphic changes (e.g., spit and beach ridge development) have also had a significant influence on the evolution of the estuary. Organic matter characteristics, inorganic sediment geochemistry, benthic microfossils, and pollen in a ~ 3500 cal yr BP sediment sequence recovered in a gravity core (20GC) from Bon Secour Bay, a small sub-bay in the southeast corner of Mobile Bay, record time-varying marine influence. Increases in marine influence during ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP and 1930 to 1160 cal yr BP are defined as zones with high-density and pre-dominantly calcareous foraminiferal species, abundant sand (>10%) and more marine-like geochemical signatures, which contrast the low-density and pre-dominantly agglutinated foraminiferal and more terrestrially influenced estuarine muds observed in other intervals of the sedimentary record (2300–1930 and 1160–400 cal yr BP) and the modern bay. Hydrodynamic models constrained by geomorphic boundary conditions for the time ~ 3500 cal yr BP, consistent with the most prominent marine-influenced sediment, provide insight to potential coastal configuration that might have permitted such marine water intrusion into the bay. Of several scenarios evaluated, a breach in Morgan Peninsula produces tidal circulation within the basin supportive of persistent marine incursions in the bay between ~3500 to 2300 cal yr BP. The findings show that slight variations in coastal configuration can have broad-scale effects on bays and estuaries with consequences that may relate to water quality, vertebrate and invertebrate habitat, and coastal vulnerability to episodic events like (extra)tropical storms.

Alabama, Mississippi↗

USGS2007

Development of the California Current during the past 12,000 yr based on diatoms and silicoflagellates

Detailed diatom and silicoflagellates records in three cores from the offshore region of southern Oregon to central California reveal the evolution of the northern part of the California Current during the past 12,000 yr. The early Holocene, prior to ∼ 9 ka, was characterized by relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SST), owing to enhanced northerly flow of the subtropical waters comparable to the modern Davidson Current. Progressive strengthening of the North Pacific High lead to intensification of the southward flow of the California Current at ∼ 8 ka, resulting in increased coastal upwelling and relatively cooler SST which persisted until ∼ 5 ka. Reduced southward flow of the California Current between ∼ 4.8 ka and 3.6 ka may have been responsible for a period of decreased upwelling. Modern seasonal oceanographic cycles, as evidenced by increased spring–early summer coastal upwelling and warming of early fall SST evolved between 3.5 and 3.2 ka. Widespread occurrence of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic change between ∼ 3.5–3.0 ka along the eastern margins of the North Pacific was likely a response to increasing ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2011

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland–Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2012

Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling

The Lake Bosumtwi sediment record represents one of the longest and highest-resolution terrestrial records of paleoclimate change available from sub-Saharan Africa. Here we report a new sediment age model framework for the last ~ 45 cal kyr of sedimentation using a combination of high-resolution radiocarbon dating, Bayesian age-depth modeling and lamination counting. Our results highlight the practical limits of these methods for reducing age model uncertainties and suggest that even with very high sampling densities, radiocarbon uncertainties of at least a few hundred years are unavoidable. Age model uncertainties are smallest during the Holocene (205 yr) and the glacial (360 yr) but are large at the base of the record (1660 yr), due to a combination of decreasing sample density, larger calibration uncertainties and increases in radiocarbon age scatter. For portions of the chronology older than ~ 35 cal kyr, additional considerations, such as the use of a low-blank graphitization system and more rigorous sample pretreatment were necessary to generate a reliable age depth model because of the incorporation of small amounts of younger carbon. A comparison of radiocarbon age model results and lamination counts over the time interval ~ 15–30 cal kyr agree with an overall discrepancy of ~ 10% and display similar changes in sedimentation rate, supporting the annual nature of sediment laminations in the early part of the record. Changes in sedimentation rates reconstructed from the age-depth model indicate that intervals of enhanced sediment delivery occurred at 16–19, 24 and 29–31 cal kyr, broadly synchronous with reconstructed drought episodes elsewhere in northern West Africa and potentially, with changes in Atlantic meridional heat transport during North Atlantic Heinrich events. These data suggest that millennial-scale drought events in the West African monsoon region were latitudinally extensive, reaching within several hundred kilometers of the Guinea coast. This is inconsistent with a simple southward shift in the mean position of the monsoon rainbelt, and requires changes in moisture convergence as a result of either a reduction in the moisture content of the tropical rainbelt, decreased convection, or both.

Lake Bosumtwi↗

USGS2013

Quaternary ostracodes and molluscs from the Rukwa Basin (Tanzania) and their evolutionary and paleobiogeographic implications

Much of the spectacular biodiversity of the African Great Lakes is endemic to single lake basins so that the margins of these basins or their lakes coincide with biogeographic boundaries. Longstanding debate surrounds the evolution of these endemic species, the stability of bioprovinces, and the exchange of faunas between them over geologic time as the rift developed. Because these debates are currently unsettled, we are uncertain of how much existing distribution patterns are determined by modern hydrological barriers versus reflecting past history. This study reports on late Quaternary fossils from the Rukwa Basin and integrates geological and paleoecological data to explore faunal exchange between freshwater bioprovinces, in particular with Lake Tanganyika. Lake Rukwa's water level showed large fluctuations over the last 25 ky, and for most of this period the lake contained large habitat diversity, with different species assemblages and taphonomic controls along its northern and southern shores. Comparison of fossil and modern invertebrate assemblages suggests faunal persistence through the Last Glacial Maximum, but with an extirpation event that occurred in the last 5 ky. Some of the molluscs and ostracodes studied here are closely related to taxa (or part of clades) that are currently endemic to Lake Tanganyika, but others testify to wider and perhaps older faunal exchanges between the Rukwa bioprovince and those of Lake Malawi and the Upper Congo (in particular Lake Mweru). The Rukwa Basin has a long history of rifting and lacustrine conditions and, at least temporarily, its ecosystems appear to have functioned as satellites to Lake Tanganyika in which intralacustrine speciation occurred. Paleontological studies of the Rukwa faunas are particularly relevant because of the basin's important role in the late Cenozoic biogeography of tropical Africa, and because many of the molecular traces potentially revealing this history would have been erased in the late Holocene extirpation.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗