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USGS2026

Tropical and subtropical coral reefs

Global declines in coral cover persist, owing to increasing ocean temperatures associated with climate change, continued coastal development, pollution, sedimentation, diseases and the destruction and overextraction of marine resources (through fishing and coral harvesting). These stressors have an impact on coral biodiversity, reef-associated fauna and the architectural complexity of reef frameworks, compromising the food security and livelihoods of the millions of people who depend on these ecosystems (virtually certain, well established). The frequency and severity of disturbances caused by heatwaves, disease outbreaks and tropical storms have increased (virtually certain, established but incomplete), curtailing the recovery time between such disturbances. This pattern is projected to continue on its current trajectory (at best) or accelerate (very likely). The ecosystem services provided by coral reefs are substantial, not only in terms of biodiversity, but also in terms of direct economic benefits (including coastal protection, livelihoods for millions and nurseries for commercial species), as well as less tangible benefits, such as cultural and aesthetic (intrinsic) value (virtually certain, well established). Conservation, restoration and regeneration efforts are under way on a global scale, but few initiatives are implemented on a long-term, sustainable basis, with socioeconomic considerations, such as livelihoods, taken into account (virtually certain, well established). A wide range of approaches and tools is being developed, many of which are designed to mitigate or halt reef declines. These are often restricted to local reef-wide projects, however, and the potential for upscaling is sometimes criticized (unresolved). Documented results are also almost always undermined by a clear disconnect between these and other policy decisions, such as the extraction and burning of fossil fuels and coastal development (likely). Regardless of scalability concerns, all programmes need to be embedded within a broader evidence-based conservation framework. Global efforts are required to facilitate reef ecosystem survival and continued function by reducing emissions and ongoing climate change (virtually certain, established but incomplete). The reefs of today will not be the reefs of tomorrow (virtually certain) and shifting baselines need to be considered when setting objectives with respect to conservation, restoration and regeneration (virtually certain, established but incomplete).

Report↗
USGS2018

Drivers of variability in public‐supply water use across the contiguous United States

This study explores the relationship between municipal water use and an array of climate, economic, behavioral, and policy variables across the contiguous U.S. The relationship is explored using Bayesian‐hierarchical regression models for over 2,500 counties, 18 covariates, and three higher‐level grouping variables. Additionally, a second analysis is included for 83 cities where water price and water conservation policy information is available. A hierarchical model using the nine climate regions (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as the higher‐level groups results in the best out‐of‐sample performance, as estimated by the Widely Available Information Criterion, compared to counties grouped by urban continuum classification or primary economic activity. The regression coefficients indicate that the controls on water use are not uniform across the nation: e.g., counties in the Northeast and Northwest climate regions are more sensitive to social variables, whereas counties in the Southwest and East North Central climate regions are more sensitive to environmental variables. For the national city‐level model, it appears that arid cities with a high cost of living and relatively low water bills sell more water per customer, but as with the county‐level model, the effect of each variable depends heavily on where a city is located.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2025

A tiered assessment framework for interregional flows of ecosystem services from migratory species

The Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has called for assessments explicitly accounting for interregional flows of ecosystem services (ESs) across geographic scales. An important type of interregional ES flow is generated by the long-distance movements of migratory species. Many migratory species provide important benefits to people, and due to migration dynamics, ESs provided in one location may be affected by habitat conservation, or lack thereof, in other locations. The state of the science on interregional flows of ESs from migratory species, however, is nascent and lacks structure needed to consistently characterize flows. We developed a 4-tiered system for categorizing assessments and the conclusions they can support based on 4 levels of ecological and socioeconomic information, ranging from incomplete to high, and how they are combined. The 4 tiers of assessment are based on differing levels of detail in the estimation of system-level ecological and socioeconomic information on a species and the services it provides: telecoupled ESs, qualitative flows, quantitative static flows, and quantitative dynamic flows. Recent assessment studies largely fall within the first tier, which does not quantify flows. Socioeconomic and ecological information are needed to achieve each tier. Our framework can be used to identify and classify a range of methods, with varying time and data requirements, that can be used to maximize the information content and relevance of ES assessments for migratory species based on available resources.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS1989

Cost-effectiveness of the streamflow-gaging program in Minnesota

A three-step analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the streamflow-gaging program in Minnesota is documented in this report. In the first step of the analysis, the data uses and funding sources were identified for the 96 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations operated in 1985. Nineteen sources of funding and 42 uses were identified for the data collected in this program. Two stations were identified as producing data no longer sufficiently needed to warrant continuing their operation. Three other stations were identified as having uses specific to short-term studies. One station was destroyed in 1985. It is recommended that the remaining 90 station be maintained in the program for the foreseeable future. In the second step, multiple-linear-regression analysis was investigated as a possible method for providing the data collected at 23 stations. The multiple-linear-regression method was not sufficiently accurate to provide the needed data, and it is recommended that the 23 stations remain in the program. It also is recommended that flow-routing methods be investigated to see if they could provide the needed data for stations on the Red Lake River, the upper Minnesota River, and on the Mississippi River in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area. In the third step, the cost-effectiveness of collecting data from 77 of the remaining 90 stations was determined for the open-water period, April 1 through October 30. Data for 13 stations are provided to the U.S. Geological Survey or are collected at fixed intervals and were, therefore, not used in the analysis. The average standard error per station for estimation of the streamflow records is about 24 percent for the statewide network, about 11 percent for the stations operated by the St. Paul field office, about 22 percent for the stations operated by the Grand Rapids field office, and about 37 percent for the stations operated by the Montevideo field office. The current policy for collecting data from the 77 stations during the open-water period cost $198,000 in 1985. The estimated average standard error per station for the statewide network could be reduced from 24.4 percent to 20.6 percent at the $198,000 budget, if the minimum number of discharge measurements at each station were reduced from five to three during the open-water period and the remaining budget were used to make additional discharge measurements at stations with large standard errors. It is recommended that, before this data-collection plan is implemented, the effects of the plan on the cost of collecting data be evaluated for (1) possible increased lost record because of the data collection plan, and (2) the possible need for additional trips to visit noncontinuous-record stations. It also is recommended that the data-accuracy needs of the funding agencies be considered before the plan is implemented.

Minnesota↗
USGS2010

Hazards affecting grizzly bear survival in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded its range. Early efforts to model grizzly bear mortality were principally focused within the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone, which currently represents only about 61% of known bear distribution in the GYE. A more recent analysis that explored one spatial covariate that encompassed the entire GYE suggested that grizzly bear survival was highest in Yellowstone National Park, followed by areas in the grizzly bear Recovery Zone outside the park, and lowest outside the Recovery Zone. Although management differences within these areas partially explained differences in grizzly bear survival, these simple spatial covariates did not capture site-specific reasons why bears die at higher rates outside the Recovery Zone. Here, we model annual survival of grizzly bears in the GYE to 1) identify landscape features (i.e., foods, land management policies, or human disturbances factors) that best describe spatial heterogeneity among bear mortalities, 2) spatially depict the differences in grizzly bear survival across the GYE, and 3) demonstrate how our spatially explicit model of survival can be linked with demographic parameters to identify source and sink habitats. We used recent data from radiomarked bears to estimate survival (1983–2003) using the known-fate data type in Program MARK. Our top models suggested that survival of independent (age ≥2 yr) grizzly bears was best explained by the level of human development of the landscape within the home ranges of bears. Survival improved as secure habitat and elevation increased but declined as road density, number of homes, and site developments increased. Bears living in areas open to fall ungulate hunting suffered higher rates of mortality than bears living in areas closed to hunting. Our top model strongly supported previous research that identified roads and developed sites as hazards to grizzly bear survival. We also demonstrated that rural homes and ungulate hunting negatively affected survival, both new findings. We illustrate how our survival model, when linked with estimates of reproduction and survival of dependent young, can be used to identify demographically the source and sink habitats in the GYE. Finally, we discuss how this demographic model constitutes one component of a habitat-based framework for grizzly bear conservation. Such a framework can spatially depict the areas of risk in otherwise good habitat, providing a focus for resource management in the GYE.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

A comparison of monitoring designs to assess wildlife community parameters across spatial scales

Dedicated long-term monitoring at appropriate spatial and temporal scales is necessary to understand biodiversity losses and develop effective conservation plans. Wildlife monitoring is often achieved by obtaining data at a combination of spatial scales, ranging from local to broad, to understand the status, trends, and drivers of individual species or whole communities and their dynamics. However, limited resources for monitoring necessitates tradeoffs in the scope and scale of data collection. Careful consideration of the spatial and temporal allocation of finite sampling effort is crucial for monitoring programs that span multiple spatial scales. Here we evaluate the ability of five monitoring designs - stratified random, weighted effort, indicator unit, rotating panel, and split panel - to recover parameter values that describe the status (occupancy), trends (change in occupancy), and drivers (spatially-varying covariate and an autologistic term) of wildlife communities at two spatial scales. Using an amphibian monitoring program that spans a network of U.S. National Parks as a motivating example, we conducted a simulation study for a regional community occupancy sampling program to compare the monitoring designs across varying levels of sampling effort (ranging from 10 to 50%). We found that the stratified random design outperformed the other designs for most parameters of interest at both scales, and was thus generally preferable in balancing the estimation of status, trends, and drivers across scales. However, we found that other designs had improved performance in specific situations. For example, the rotating panel design performed best at estimating spatial drivers at a regional level. Thus, our results highlight the nuanced scenarios in which various design strategies may be preferred, and offer guidance as to how managers can balance common tradeoffs in large-scale and long-term monitoring programs in terms of the specific knowledge gained. Monitoring designs that improve accuracy in parameter estimates are needed to guide conservation policy and management decisions in the face of broad-scaled environmental challenges, but the preferred design is sensitive to the specific objectives of a monitoring program.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Landowner and practitioner perspectives on private land conservation programs

Efforts to reverse declines in native grasslands benefit from agricultural policies that encourage private land conservation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) improved conservation across landscapes but enrollment has declined. We used sequential exploratory mixed methods to compare landowner and conservation practitioners’ perceptions, evaluate perceived benefits, and identify potential improvements to CRP. Focus groups of practitioners informed a quantitative survey of landowners who had properties >160 total acres in Nebraska. Results suggest potential misalignment in perceptions between practitioners and landowners. Practitioners were concerned that conservation, especially of wildlife, was secondary to profit. But the majority of landowners valued CRP-related ecosystem services, including native pollinators. Practitioners posited that younger landowners were primarily profit motivated, but CRP enrollment did not differ by demographics. Practitioners and landowners identified rule complexity as a major challenge and practitioner–landowner relationships as critical to success. Findings suggest that practitioners may underestimate non-economic motivations and illuminate opportunities to encourage private land conservation.

Nebraska↗
USGS2017

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2014

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats

Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have led to the exploration and exploitation of shale oil and gas both nationally and internationally. Extensive development of shale resources has occurred within the United States over the past decade, yet full build out is not expected to occur for years. Moreover, countries across the globe have large shale resources and are beginning to explore extraction of these resources. Extraction of shale resources is a multistep process that includes site identification, well pad and infrastructure development, well drilling, high-volume hydraulic fracturing and production; each with its own propensity to affect associated ecosystems. Some potential effects, for example from well pad, road and pipeline development, will likely be similar to other anthropogenic activities like conventional gas drilling, land clearing, exurban and agricultural development and surface mining (e.g., habitat fragmentation and sedimentation). Therefore, we can use the large body of literature available on the ecological effects of these activities to estimate potential effects from shale development on nearby ecosystems. However, other effects, such as accidental release of wastewaters, are novel to the shale gas extraction process making it harder to predict potential outcomes. Here, we review current knowledge of the effects of high-volume hydraulic fracturing coupled with horizontal drilling on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the contiguous United States, an area that includes 20 shale plays many of which have experienced extensive development over the past decade. We conclude that species and habitats most at risk are ones where there is an extensive overlap between a species range or habitat type and one of the shale plays (leading to high vulnerability) coupled with intrinsic characteristics such as limited range, small population size, specialized habitat requirements, and high sensitivity to disturbance. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2015

Translating climate change effects on species into everyday language: an example of more driving and less fishing

Climate change is expected to result in widespread changes in species distributions (e.g., shifting, shrinking, expanding species ranges; e.g., Parmesan and Yohe, 2003), especially for freshwater fish species (Heino et al. 2009). Although anglers and other resource users could be greatly affected by changes in species distributions, predicted changes are rarely reported in ways that can be easily understood by the general public. In contrast, climate science that more directly affects human welfare or livelihoods is often more readily communicated to the general public because it is of greater concern or closely related to everyday life. For example, most people can readily interpret how increases in the number of “hot” days above a given temperature threshold might affect their lives, and property owners in coastal areas can use predictive maps to determine how they might be affected by sea level rise (for more examples, see the Third National Assessment of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at globalchange.gov ). However, the effects of climate change on species are usually reported to the general public using summary metrics or maps designed to communicate concepts that are not normally encountered in everyday life, including changes in habitat suitability, range shifts, or increasing risks from disease or extreme events (e.g., National Audubon Society 2009; Groffman et al. 2014). Though these metrics are necessary, meaningful, and understood by scientists, many people lack the necessary training and background to readily understand them. Further, scientists and nonscientists alike may struggle to convert these metrics into a currency that directly affects day-to-day life. Climate science is a complex issue, and we argue that when communicating potential responses of vegetation, fish, and wildlife to nonscientists, creative thinking with respect to the currency of communication will facilitate discussions between scientists, policy makers, and the public. We posit that with some additional thought and relatively simple summaries, the responses of fish and other species to climate change can be translated into everyday language that will facilitate climate science communication. Although such translations are rare, one example of this type of creativity is the translation from changes in habitat suitability for tree species to potential reductions in maple syrup production (West over 2012), which is arguably more interesting and understandable for the general public. Similar translations could be especially important for communicating climate change effects on game fish and other species that are socially and economically important to large groups of people. We demonstrate this translation by communicating the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of a coldwater fish species, the eastern Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis . Rather than communicating the potential forecasted contraction of the Brook Trout's distribution in terms of habitat loss, we report the predicted increases in the driving distance to streams likely offering Brook Trout angling opportunities under a climate change scenario. Travel costs based on distance have been widely used to value ecosystem services such as angling under climate change scenarios (e.g., Pendleton and Mendelsohn 1998; Mendelsohn and Markowski 1999; Ahn et al. 2000) but, to the best of our knowledge, have not been used for communicating potential changes to the public despite the intrinsic link to everyday life.

New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS1982

Geologic estimates and future costs of strip mining coal

Geologic coal-resource appraisals, which typically describe the location and general characteristics of coalbeds, do not generally provide enough information to estimate the cost of developing the resource or to predict the escalation of costs expected to result from physical depletion. This paper considers the nature of data and methods of appraisal required to provide this cost information to policymakers. Illinois is used as a prototype area for analysis because of its long history of coal mining and its demonstrated coal reserve base of strippable coal that exceeds all but two of the States in the United States. Evidence of gradual depletion of Illinois strippable coal reserves is provided by declining labor productivity, decreasing average mine size, and increasing overburden depth. The procedures used to estimate the costs of mining remaining deposits indicate that the physical characteristics that will affect mining costs most significantly are depth of overburden, thickness of coal seam, and areal extent of coal of the minable reserve blocks. Findings presented here provide guidelines for the collection of economic and geologic data in order to improve coal appraisals, particularly those currently in progress in the Western United States.

Energy Systems and Policy↗
USGS2021

Monitoring the status and trends of the Shenandoah salamander in Shenandoah National Park

The Shenandoah salamander ( Plethodon shenandoah ) is a federally endangered salamander whose distribution is restricted to high-elevation habitats in Shenandoah National Park (SHEN). During the ranking of vital signs monitoring priorities for this park, “Federal Threatened and Endangered Species” received the 2nd highest ranking for terrestrial vital signs because of ecological, management, and policy criteria. The following protocol narrative describes the objectives and methods for monitoring the Shenandoah salamander. Because the range size and habitat occupancy are of principle interest, this protocol generates data suitable for estimating the annual proportion of occupied habitat across the species range. Objectives focus on describing the status and trends of the species distribution (i.e., spatial extent) and the proportion of the range that is occupied (i.e., density of occupied sites). To do so, monitoring sites in the core and the edge of the known range are surveyed for salamanders multiple times during both the spring and fall. The resulting data not only allow for an assessment of the status and trends of the species but also provide supporting data to assist in understanding causal drivers of population change. This monitoring protocol consists of a protocol narrative and eight standard operating procedures (SOPs) which are listed below in the Background and Objectives and are available as separate documents at irma.nps.gov.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2010

Establishing a nationwide baseline of historical burn-severity data to support monitoring of trends in wildfire effects and national fire policies

There is a need to provide agency leaders, elected officials, and the general public with summary information regarding the effects of large wildfires. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness and effects of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act. One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a 6-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS/EROS Data Center and USDA-FS/ Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires occurring from 1984 to 2010. Only fires that are greater than 500 ac in the East, and 1,000 ac in the West will be included. We anticipate mapping a total of more than 9,000 historical fires and fires that occur during the course of the study. The MTBS project will generate burn-severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, State, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource threats. For example, fire severity data along with associated biophysical characteristics provide an analytical basis for assessing risk from invasive species as well as native insects and pathogens. All data and results will be distributed to the public via a Web interface.

General Technical Report↗
USGS2017

Environmental considerations related to mining of nonfuel minerals

Throughout most of human history, environmental stewardship during mining has not been a priority partly because of the lack of applicable laws and regulations and partly because of ignorance about the effects that mining can have on the environment. In the United States, the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, in conjunction with related laws, codified a more modern approach to mining, including the responsibility for environmental stewardship, and provided a framework for incorporating environmental protection into mine planning. Today, similar frameworks are in place in the other developed countries of the world, and international mining companies generally follow similar procedures wherever they work in the world. The regulatory guidance has fostered an international effort among all stakeholders to identify best practices for environmental stewardship. The modern approach to mining using best practices involves the following: (a) establishment of a pre-mining baseline from which to monitor environmental effects during mining and help establish geologically reasonable closure goals; (b) identification of environmental risks related to mining through standardized approaches; and (c) formulation of an environmental closure plan before the start of mining. A key aspect of identifying the environmental risks and mitigating those risks is understanding how the risks vary from one deposit type to another—a concept that forms the basis for geoenvironmental mineral-deposit models. Accompanying the quest for best practices is the goal of making mining sustainable into the future. Sustainable mine development is generally considered to be development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The concept extends beyond the availability of nonrenewable mineral commodities and includes the environmental and social effects of mine development. Global population growth, meanwhile, has decreased the percentage of inhabitable land available to support society’s material needs. Presently, the land area available to supply the mineral resources, energy resources, water, food, shelter, and waste disposal needs of all Earth’s inhabitants is estimated to be 135 square meters per person. Continued global population growth will only increase the challenges of sustainable mining. Current trends in mining are also expected to lead to new environmental challenges in the future, among which are mine-waste management issues related to mining larger deposits for lower ore grade; water-management issues related to both the mining of larger deposits and the changes in precipitation brought about by climate change; and greenhouse gas issues related to reducing the carbon footprint of larger, more energy-intensive mining operations.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2023

The blue carbon reservoirs from Maine to Long Island, NY

In response to the New England Governor and Eastern Canadian Premier 2017 Climate Change Action Plan recommendation to “manage blue carbon resources to preserve and enhance their existing carbon reservoirs,” the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) convened a New England Blue Carbon Inventory Workgroup, comprised of a variety of federal, state, academic, and non-profit organizations to develop an inventory of blue carbon stocks from Maine to Long Island, New York. The Workgroup focused its inventory efforts on salt marshes and eelgrass meadows, leveraging existing habitat maps for geographic data. Existing data for soil organic carbon stocks were then used to calculate blue carbon stock estimates. For visual display purposes, sediment carbon heat maps were developed to highlight areas of greatest carbon accumulation. The habitat distribution and sediment carbon heat maps can be accessed on the Northeast Ocean Data Portal (www.northeastoceandata.org/eelgrass) which is a public source of expert-reviewed, interactive maps and data on the ocean ecosystem, economy, and culture of the northeastern United States and can be used to facilitate decision making by government agencies, tribal nations, businesses, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), academic institutions, and individuals. Based on available data and Workgroup calculations, the target geographic area has an estimated 218,222 acres of eelgrass meadows, salt marsh and saline Phragmites, which are estimated to provide a reservoir of 7,523,568 megagrams of blue carbon, or the equivalent to the annual carbon emissions from over 5,944,024 passenger vehicles. Due to data limitations, the carbon stock estimate represents a mere fraction of the actual quantity of accumulated carbon in these habitats. The findings from the Workgroup’s efforts and the resulting map products can help inform land and coastal management policies, fisheries management, and climate change mitigation practices. Further refinements and expansion of data are needed, including more detailed habitat maps, deeper soil core data for soil organic carbon content, and inclusion of more marine flora into calculations.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2012

Role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia’s future demand for gas imports

Demand for natural gas is increasing more rapidly than anticipated in Far East markets because (1) China has modified its policies in order to increase reliance on gas, in part to mitigate the growth in its coal consumption (which now stand at almost half of world coal production), (2) Japan has announced its intention to eventually shutdown its nuclear power industry, and (3) India, which currently has more than 400 million people without electricity, desires to accelerate electrification. This analysis investigates the potential role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia's future demand for gas imports. It initially surveys the discovered or known gas in stranded gas accumulations in Central Asia, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It then examines the primary gas import markets of China, India, Japan, and South Korea by describing energy use, gas demand trends, and domestic gas supplies to establish boundaries that encompass the wide variation in gas import demands in these markets during the two decades following 2020. Then the cost of developing and delivering gas through overland pipelines from selected stranded gas fields in Central Asia and Russia to China is examined. Analysis shows that for the Shanghai market in China, the costs of developing and delivering Russia's stranded gas from the petroleum provinces of eastern Siberia are competitive with costs estimated for stranded gas from Central Asia. However, for the Western Siberian Basin, delivered gas costs are at least 3 US dollars per thousand cubic feet (USD/Mcf) higher than delivered gas from Central Asia. The extraction and transport costs to a liquefaction plant for gas from stranded gas fields located in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the basins of eastern Siberia are then evaluated. The resource cost functions presented show development and extraction costs as a function of the volume of stranded gas developed for each country. The analysis demonstrates that, although the Russian fields in areas of eastern Siberia are large with relatively low extraction costs, distances to a potential liquefaction plant at Vladivostok make them initially the high cost suppliers of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. For the LNG markets examined, Australia and Malaysia are initially the lowest cost suppliers. For the Shanghai market, a comparison of the cost of supplying gas by pipeline with the cost of supplying LNG shows that the pipeline costs from areas of eastern Siberia and Central Asia are generally lower than delivered cost of gas as LNG from the LNG supply sources considered.

Central Asia, Southeast Asia↗
USGS2014

A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth—including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity.

Astrobiology↗
USGS1974

Environmental impact analysis; the example of the proposed Trans-Alaska Pipeline

The environmental impact analysis made as required by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 for the proposed trans-Alaska pipeline included consideration of the (1) technologically complex and geographically extensive proposed project, (2) extremely different physical environments across Alaska along the proposed route and elsewhere in Alaska and in Canada along alternative routes, (3) socioeconomic environment of the State of Alaska, and (4) a wide variety of alternatives. The analysis was designed specifically to fit the project and environment that would be affected. The environment was divided into two general parts--natural physical systems and superposed socioeconomic systems--and those parts were further divided into discipline-oriented systems or components that were studied and analyzed by scientists of the appropriate discipline. Particular attention was given to potential feedback loops in the impact network and to linkages between the project's impacting effects and the environment. The results of the analysis as reported in the final environmental impact statement were that both unavoidable and threatened environmental impacts would result from construction, operation, and maintenance of the proposed pipeline system and the developments related to it. The principal unavoidable effects would be (1) disturbances of terrain, fish and wildlife habitat, and human environs, (2) the results of the discharge of effluent from the tanker-ballast-treatment facility into Port Valdez and of some indeterminate amount of oil released into the ocean from tank-cleaning operations at sea, and (3) the results associated with increased human pressures of all kinds on the environment. Other unavoidable effects would be those related to increase of State and Native Corporation revenues, accelerated cultural change of the Native population, and extraction of the oil and gas resource. The main threatened environmental effects would all be related to unintentional oil loss from the pipeline, from tankers, or in the oil field. Oil losses from the pipeline could be caused by direct or indirect effects of earthquakes, destructive sea waves, slope failure caused by natural or artificial processes, thaw-plug instability (in permafrost), differential settlement of permafrost terrain, and bed scour and bank erosion at stream crossings. Oil loss from tankers could be caused by accidents during transfer operations at Valdez and at destination ports and by casualties involving tankers and other ships. Comparison of alternative routes and transportation systems and of their environmental impacts provided information which indicates to the author that one corridor containing both oil and gas pipelines would have less environmental impact than would separate corridors. Considering also the threat to the marine environment that any tanker system would impose and the threat that zones of high earthquake frequency and magnitude would impose on pipelines, it is apparent to the author that environmental impact and cost would be least for a single-corridor on-land route that avoided earthquake zones. The alternative trans-Alaska-Canada routes would meet these criteria. The decisions of the U.S. Department of the Interior, the U.S. Congress, and the President of the United States in favor of the proposed trans-Alaska pipeline system indicate the relative weight given by the decision makers in balancing the importance of potential environmental consequences against the advantages to be derived from rapid resource development.

Circular↗