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1,658 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Groundwater salinity: Applying the specific conductance and water type proxy

Groundwater is increasingly needed for water supplies but may have limited utility in some locations because of its salinity. Salinity, often expressed as total dissolved solid (TDS), is frequently estimated using specific conductance (SC) measurements. However, the commonly used proxy (0.65 multiplied by SC to indicate TDS, common in many handheld meters) can result in inaccurate TDS estimates. First, the TDS–SC relationship is not linear over the entire concentration range of groundwater. Furthermore, the TDS (and salinity)–SC relationships vary substantially depending on the major-ion composition. Here we develop a proxy method utilizing SC and major-ion water type to estimate TDS and salinity specifically for groundwaters. Compared to most surface waters, groundwater tends to have a wider range of salinity (fresh to highly saline) and higher concentrations of bedrock-derived solutes such as carbonate ions, silica, and many other ions. The dataset used to develop the proxies includes water chemistry data from 149,059 discrete groundwater samples. The groundwater proxies, which employ nonlinear log–log relations, utilize five water types (HCO 3 , Cl, Ca-Mg-SO 4 , Na-K-SO 4 , and mixed waters), are accurate (median percent difference between TDS and salinity determined using the proxy compared to discrete measurements was <±0.8%) over a wide range of SC (up to 200 mS/cm), rapid, cost-effective, and can be measured on-site.

Groundwater↗
USGS2024

Seismic techniques and suggested instrumentation to monitor volcanoes

Introduction Changes in the pressure or location of magma can stress or break surrounding rocks and trigger flow of nearby waters and gases, causing seismic signals, such as discrete earthquakes and tremor. These phenomena are types of seismic unrest that commonly precede eruption and can be used to forecast volcanic activity. Mass movements at the surface, including avalanches, debris flows, and lahars, may also generate seismic signals that are specifically addressed in chapter H , this volume (Thelen and others, 2024). Our focus in this chapter is to determine the levels of instrumentation recommended to produce high-quality, well-constrained seismic observations important for early warning of impending eruptions, detecting changes in ongoing eruptions, and characterizing other hazardous volcanic events. There are emerging techniques and new types of instrumentation, such as distributed acoustic sensing or rotational seismometers, that we do not consider here. These types of instrumentation show promise for monitoring but still require maturation before being considered more generally in volcano monitoring. Most of the capabilities mentioned below are universal for all types of volcanic systems, although some are best applied to stratovolcanoes with an apical single vent. In some settings, such as calderas or shield volcanoes, we must broaden coverage to include multiple possible storage regions or vent locations. As an example, Thelen (2014) discretized the long rift zones of shield volcanoes in Hawaiʻi as a set of evenly spaced “vents.” In this construct, each vent comes with recommendations, and several thousand network configurations were simulated to assess the effect on network quality levels and to determine the most efficient network design. The same process could be applied in a caldera setting or a volcanic field, where an evenly spaced grid of potential vents is considered. Localized recommendations for each unique system are beyond the scope of this report and left up to local experts to assess based on the conditions, restrictions, and requirements of each volcano.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

SlideDetect: Spatio-temporal landslide detection using a three-dimensional convolutional neural network

Landslides pose a serious and ongoing threat to both human lives and infrastructure worldwide; therefore, it is of interest to predict where and when landslides are likely to occur. Advances in machine learning techniques have spurred numerous studies aimed at estimating relative landslide propensity, but are limited to spatial (as opposed to temporal) prediction due to the sparsity of landslide timing data. We address this data gap by training SlideDetect, a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D CNN), to identify landslides based on their spatial and temporal occurrence within multitemporal image stacks. We use an inventory of landsides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido earthquake and two years of monthly composite optical imagery spanning this event. The model can identify not only landslide location but also landslide date with an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.84. We further present a new standard for presenting PR curve results that explicitly compares model performance at different confidence thresholds, allowing for clearer model evaluation and comparison. Our new approach to constraining landslide timing paired with this more consistent and objective method for evaluating model performance shows considerable promise, and with further application and testing, SlideDetect could enhance the data availability and tools needed to advance landslide hazard and risk assessments.

JGR Machine Learning and Computation↗
USGS2025

Flood-inundation maps for Río de la Plata in and near Comerío, Puerto Rico, 2025

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.1-mile reach of Río de la Plata in and near Comerío, Puerto Rico, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Water-surface profiles were computed for the stream reach by using a one-dimensional steady-state step-backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current (2025) stage-streamflow relation (rating curve 11.0) for the USGS streamgage 50043800, Río de la Plata at Comerío, Puerto Rico. The resulting hydraulic model was then used to compute 16 water-surface profiles for water levels (flood stages) ranging from 10.00 to 40.00 feet at the streamgage and ranging from “action stage” to above “major flood stage” as reported by the National Weather Service. The 40.00-foot stage was selected because it exceeds the peak stage of 34.86 ft recorded during Hurricane Maria at the USGS streamgage 50043800, Río de Plata at Comerío, Puerto Rico. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used in combination with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data to map the inundated areas associated with each flood profile. The flood-inundation maps and the supporting hydraulic model produced by this study can be used by emergency managers and local officials to assess flood mitigation strategies and to define flood hazard areas to help protect life and property, to coordinate flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and to aid post-flood recovery efforts.

Comerio↗
USGS1998

Transmissivity and water quality of water-producing zones in the intermediate aquifer system, Sarasota County, Florida

The intermediate aquifer system is an important water source in Sarasota County, Florida, because the quality of water in it is usually better than that in the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer. The intermediate aquifer system consists of a group of up to three water-producing zones separated by less-permeable units that restrict the vertical movement of ground water between zones. The diverse lithology, that makes up the intermediate aquifer system, reflects the variety of depositional environments that occurred during the late Oligocene and Miocene epochs. Slight changes in the depositional environment resulted in aquifer heterogeneity, creating both localized connection between water-producing zones and abrupt culmination of water-producing zones that are not well documented. Aquifer heterogeneity results in vertical and areal variability in hydraulic and water-quality properties. The uppermost water-producing zone is designated producing zone 1 but is not extensively used because of its limited production capability and limited areal extent. The second water-producing zone is designated producing zone 2, and most of the domestic- and irrigation-supply wells in the area are open to this zone. Additionally, producing zone 2 is utilized for public supply in southern coastal areas of Sarasota County. Producing zone 3 is the lowermost and most productive water-producing zone in the intermediate aquifer system. Public-supply well fields serving the cities of Sarasota and Venice, as well as the Plantation and Mabry Carlton Reserve well fields, utilize producing zone 3. Heads within the intermediate aquifer system generally increase with aquifer depth. However, localized head-gradient reversals occur in the study area, coinciding with sites of intense ground-water withdrawals. Heads in producing zones 1, 2, and 3 range from 1 to 23, 0.2 to 34, and 7 to 42 feet above sea level, respectively. Generally, an upward head gradient exists between producing zones 3 and 2. However, an upward head gradient between producing zones 2 and 1 does not consistently occur throughout Sarasota County, probably the result of greater ground-water withdrawals from producing zone 2 than from producing zone 1. The transmissivity of the intermediate aquifer system is spatially variable. Specific-capacity data from selected wells penetrating producing zones 2 and 3, were used to estimate transmissivity. Estimated transmissivity values for producing zones 2 and 3 range from about 100 to 26,000 feet squared per day and from about 1,300 to 6,200 feet squared per day, respectively. Because the capacity of specific water-producing zones is highly variable from site to site, estimating the performance of a specific water-producing zone as a water resource is difficult. Water samples collected during the study were analyzed for major-ion concentrations. Generally, bicarbonate type water from rock interaction occurs in northern Sarasota County; enriched calcium-magnesium-sulfate type water from deeper aquifers occurs in central Sarasota County; and sodium-chloride type water from saltwater mixing occurs in southern Sarasota County. In some areas of northern Sarasota County, the major-ion concentrations in water are lower in producing zone 2 than in producing zone 1. Major-ion concentrations in water are higher in producing zone 3 throughout the study area. A major objective of the study was to evaluate hydraulic and water-quality data to determine distinctions that could be used to characterize a particular producing zone. However, data indicate that both hydraulic and water-quality properties are highly variable within and between zones, and are more related to the degree of connection between and areal extent of water-producing zones than to aquifer depth and distance from the coast.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Moment magnitude for small earthquakes in the Delaware basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico, USA

The Delaware Basin region of west Texas and southeast New Mexico has become one of the most prolific regions of seismic activity in the continental United States due to widespread hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal injection. In response to the increased number of earthquakes in this region, rapid and accurate characterization of earthquake sources is necessary to understand the evolution of seismic activity and level of seismic hazard associated with these earthquakes. This study re-evaluates earthquake magnitudes, estimating moment magnitude (MW) for small earthquakes in the Delaware Basin using 1) moment-rate spectra derived from S-wave coda envelopes, and 2) a relative magnitude method that relies exclusively on the ratio of waveform amplitudes between highly correlated waveform pairs. The coda-envelope method produces accurate M W estimates for small earthquakes ( M 1.5 – 3) that are consistent with independent, waveform modeled moment magnitudes for events with M W > 3 . Using the relative amplitudes method to extend these M W magnitudes to many other events, we successfully provide relative moment magnitude ( M W,rel ) values for 81% of the Texas Seismological Network catalog in the Delaware Basin region, and 45% of the USGS Induced Seismicity Project’s catalog of events in southeast New Mexico. The adoption and integration of the calibrated M W,rel method with current magnitude estimation methods offers valuable insights into the relationships between local and moment magnitude and will contribute to improved characterization of widespread induced seismicity.

New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2026

Polystyrene microplastics alter the accumulation and elimination dynamics of silver nanoparticles in Daphnia magna

Rationale Microplastics (MPs) can interact with engineered nanomaterials and alter their environmental fate and bioavailability. However, their influence on the bioaccumulation dynamics of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in aquatic filter feeders under environmentally relevant conditions remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that polystyrene microplastics (PS-MPs) alter the uptake, elimination and overall bioaccumulation dynamics of AgNPs in Daphnia magna . Methodology Adult D. magna were exposed to isotopically labeled citrate-coated 109 AgNPs in the presence and absence of PS-MPs. Waterborne uptake, dietary uptake, assimilation efficiency, food ingestion and elimination were quantified experimentally and incorporated into a biodynamic model to predict steady-state silver (Ag) concentrations under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. Results PS-MPs increased waterborne Ag accumulation by approximately eightfold compared with AgNPs exposure alone. However, Ag elimination was substantially faster, with 98% of accumulated Ag eliminated after five days of depuration compared with 66% without PS-MPs. PS-MPs also reduced food ingestion rates (IRs), while assimilation efficiency remained largely unchanged. Biodynamic modeling predicted that steady-state Ag accumulation was approximately fivefold greater in the presence of PS-MPs, with waterborne exposure becoming the dominant accumulation pathway. Discussion These findings suggest that PS-MPs alter bioaccumulation dynamics of AgNPs in filter-feeding organisms by enhancing organism-associated Ag during waterborne exposure while accelerating Ag elimination, likely through particle-associated transport and gut egestion. Collectively, these results underscore the complexity of Ag bioaccumulation processes when MPs and AgNPs interact and highlight the importance of studies conducted under environmentally relevant conditions.

Environmental Chemistry↗
USGS2024

Fish beta diversity associated with hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients in contrasting stream flow regimes

Understanding the role of hydrologic variation in structuring aquatic communities is crucial for successful conservation and sustainable management of native freshwater biodiversity. Partitioning beta diversity into the additive components of spatial turnover and nestedness can provide insight into the forces driving variability in fish assemblages across stream flow regimes. We examined stream fish beta diversity across hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients using long-term (1916–2016) site occurrence records ( n = 17,375) encompassing 252 species. We assessed total beta diversity (Sørensen dissimilarity), spatial turnover, and nestedness of fish assemblages in contrasting stream flow regimes across a gradient of decreasing flow stability: groundwater stable ( n = 77), groundwater ( n = 67), groundwater flashy ( n = 175), perennial runoff ( n = 141), runoff flashy ( n = 255), and intermittent ( n = 63) streams. Differences in total beta diversity among the stream flow regimes were driven predominantly (>86 %) by spatial turnover (i.e. species replacement) as opposed to nestedness (i.e. species loss or gain). Total fish beta diversity and spatial turnover were highest in streams with intermediate flow stability (groundwater flashy), while more flow-stable streams (groundwater stable and groundwater) had lower turnover and higher nestedness. Species turnover was also strongly associated with seasonal variation in hydrology across all flow regimes, but these relationships were most evident for assemblages in intermittent streams. Distance-based statistical comparisons showed significant correlations between beta diversity and anthropogenic disturbance variables, including dam density, dam storage volume and water withdrawals in catchments of groundwater stable streams, while hydrologic variables were more strongly correlated with beta diversity in streams with runoff-dominated and flashy flow regimes. The high spatial turnover of species implies that fish conservation actions would benefit from watershed-focused approaches targeting multiple streams with wide spatial distribution, as opposed to simply focusing on preserving sites with the greatest number of species.

Science of the Total Envionrment↗
USGS2025

Structural setting and geothermal potential of northeastern Reese River Valley, north-central Nevada: Highly prospective detailed study site for the INGENIOUS project

The northeastern part of the Reese River basin situated ~15 km southeast of Battle Mountain, Nevada, scored highly in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) for hosting potential hidden geothermal systems. This site (also referred to as Argenta Rise) was therefore chosen for detailed study in the INGENIOUS project (INnovative Geothermal Exploration through Novel Investigations Of Undiscovered Systems). The high PFA scores resulted primarily from favorable structural settings (e.g., fault intersections and pull aparts) with relatively high slip rates on Quaternary faults. The INGENIOUS project is utilizing additional parameters and more rigorous analytical techniques to further advance exploration at this site. This includes integration of geological (e.g., Quaternary fault mapping) and new geophysical datasets (e.g., gravity, magnetics, MT data, and five reprocessed seismic reflection profiles) to build a structural model and to identify specific favorable sites for potential geothermal upwellings. Two-meter temperature surveys were also conducted in the area (139 measurements). This part of north-central Nevada is characterized by systems of intersecting northerly and ENE-striking faults within the broader Humboldt structural zone, a poorly understood belt of ENE-striking faults and relatively high heat flow extending across northern Nevada. Kinematic analysis of exposed fault surfaces shows that ENE-striking faults have accommodated sinistral-normal slip, and normal slip characterizes N- to NNE-striking faults. Northeastern Reese River Valley lies within a broad left step between major ENE-striking fault zones on the northern flanks of the Argenta Rim and Shoshone Range and thus corresponds to a broad pull-apart in the ENE-striking sinistral-normal fault system. Notably, the nearby Beowawe geothermal system in Whirlwind Valley (with abundant sinter, hot springs, and a geothermal power plant) occupies a fault intersection in a relatively small left step in a major ENE-striking sinistral-normal fault and may serve as an analogue for a potential hidden system in northeastern Reese River Valley. Existing geological maps, high-resolution lidar, and seismic reflection data demonstrate that northeastern Reese River Valley is structurally complex with multiple intersections between the ENE- and N- to NNE-striking fault systems. Some of these fault intersections correspond to low resistivity anomalies, magnetic lows, and/or very subtle 2-m temperature anomalies, which may indicate hidden geothermal upwellings. Three-dimensional modeling and temperature-gradient drilling are planned to further evaluate these sites for geothermal activity.

Nevada↗
USGS2024

Global variability of the composition and temperature at the 410-km discontinuity from receiver function analysis of dense arrays

Seismic boundaries caused by phase transitions between olivine polymorphs in Earth's mantle provide thermal and compositional markers that inform mantle dynamics. Seismic studies of the mantle transition zone often use either global averaging with sparse arrays or regional sampling from a single dense array. The intermediate approach of this study utilizes many densely spaced seismic arrays distributed around the globe. We systematically compute teleseismic P-to-S receiver functions for each seismic array and invert for the 1-D seismic velocity structure of the mantle transition zone beneath each array to facilitate a comparison between densely sampled regions. We stack 3,600 receiver functions on average at 67 arrays in total. The stack is used in a probabilistic inversion to estimate the mantle transition zone interface depths and velocities beneath each array. We focus on the 410-km discontinuity (410) because it is a prominent seismic interface that is clearly linked to a single mineral phase transition between olivine and wadsleyite. The depths and velocity contrasts of the 410 are mapped to temperatures and compositions using mineral physics constraints. The depth of the 410 ranges from ∼405–440 km, which is consistent with a ∼360 K temperature range in a dry mantle and a ∼260 K temperature range in a wet mantle (2 wt. % water). The Vs contrast across the 410 ranges from ∼2.5–8 %, which is consistent with ∼20–70 vol. % olivine composition in a dry mantle and ∼25–80 vol. % in a wet mantle. The bulk composition of the upper mantle near the 410-km discontinuity is typically considered to be well-mixed because there is no thermodynamic impediment to convection at the olivine to wadsleyite phase transition. However, the wide range of inferred olivine content from our study suggests that there are large lateral variations in the bulk composition of the upper mantle near the 410-km discontinuity.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS1997

Hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the Horse Creek basin, west-central Florida, October 1992-February 1995

A baseline study of the 241-square-mile Horse Creek basin was undertaken from October 1992 to February 1995 to assess the hydrologic and water-quality conditions of one of the last remaining undeveloped basins in west-central Florida. During the period of the study, much of the basin remained in a natural state, except for limited areas of cattle and citrus production and phosphate mining. Rainfall in 1993 and 1994 in the Horse Creek basin was 8 and 31 percent, respectively, above the 30-year long-term average. The lowest and highest maximum instantaneous peak discharge of the six daily discharge stations occurred at the Buzzard Roost Branch and the Horse Creek near Arcadia stations with 185 to 4,180 cubic feet per second, respectively. The Horse Creek near Arcadia station had the lowest number of no-flow days with zero days and the Brushy Creek station had the highest number with 113 days. During the study, the West Fork Horse Creek subbasin had the highest daily mean discharge per square mile with 30.6 cubic feet per second per square mile, and the largest runoff coefficient of 43.7 percent. The Buzzard Roost Branch subbasin had the lowest daily mean discharge per square mile with 5.05 cubic feet per second per square mile, and Brushy Creek and Brandy Branch shared the lowest runoff coefficient of 0.6 percent. Brandy Branch had the highest monthly mean runoff in both 1993 and 1994 with 11.48 and 19.28 inches, respectively. During the high-baseflow seepage run, seepage gains were 8.87 cubic feet per second along the 43-mile Horse Creek channel. However, during the low-baseflow seepage run, seepage losses were 0.88 cubic foot per second. Three methods were used to estimate average annual ground-water recharge in the Horse Creek basin: (1) well hydrograph, (2) chloride mass balance, and (3) streamflow hydrograph. Estimated average annual recharge using these three methods ranged from 3.6 to 8.7 inches. The high percentage of carbonate plus bicarbonate analyzed at the Carlton surficial aquifer well could indicate an upward ground-water flow from the underlying intermediate aquifer system. Based on constituent concentrations in water samples from the six daily discharge stations, concentrations generally are lower in the upper three subbasins, West Fork Horse Creek, Upper Horse Creek, and Brushy Creek than in the lower three subbasins. Typically, concentrations were highest for major ions at Buzzard Roost Branch and nutrients at Brushy Creek.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Top Elevation of Glacial Till and Thickness of the Big Sioux Aquifer Delineated From Electrical Resistivity Tomography Surveys Near Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 2022 and 2025

The City of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, requested the U.S. Geological Survey perform electrical resistivity surveys on three parcels of land north of the city. Electrical resistivity data were collected along a total of 22 transects during March 14–18, 2022, and November 17–21, 2025. Results from electrical resistivity surveys were used to delineate the top of glacial till deposits for the purpose of characterizing the Big Sioux aquifer near the city. Delineating geologic contacts provides important information on groundwater storage, flow dynamics, well design and placement, contaminant transport, groundwater–surface-water interactions, and regional water modeling. The top elevation of glacial till and the thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer varied among the three survey areas. The interpreted top elevation of glacial till in the North survey area decreases from east to west toward a slough, with elevations ranging from 1,403 to 1,418 feet (ft). The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the North survey area increased from east to west, with thicknesses ranging from 23 to 38 ft. The top elevation of glacial till in the Well 72 survey area generally decreases from northwest to southeast. Top elevations of the glacial till in the Well 72 survey area ranged from 1,400 to 1,409 ft along the southern end of transect W72_2. The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the Well 72 survey area was greatest along a southeast to northwest trending channel, with thicknesses ranging from 28 to 40 ft. The top elevation of glacial till in the Nose survey area generally decreases west toward the Big Sioux River. Top elevations of the glacial till in the Nose survey area ranged from 1,362 to 1,395 ft. The estimated thickness of the Big Sioux aquifer in the Nose survey area ranged from 33 to 70 ft.

South Dakota↗
USGS2025

Assessment of coastal and fluvial morphodynamic changes using Structure-for-Motion: A case study of the Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta, Romania)

The ability to accurately map erosion, flooding, and habitat loss in coastal environments is crucial for formulating national strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. A fundamental component of this process is the implementation of coastal morphodynamics monitoring through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques, utilizing high-resolution 2D/3D data obtained from aerial photogrammetry. To assess morphodynamic changes over a three-year period (2022 – 2024), several SfM-based photogrammetric studies were conducted, each year, in the Romanian sector of the Danube-Black Sea coastal zone, specifically at the mouth of one of the Danube River distributaries (Sf Gheorghe branch) into the Black Sea, and along the left bank, near Sf Gheorghe locality, located within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). The essential equipment for aerial photogrammetry comprises Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, the UAV used was a DJI Mavic 3T (Enterprise/Thermal) drone, complemented by two Trimble R12i and R4 GNSS systems, as well as approximately 10 Ground Control Points (GCPs). Data acquisition and processing were carried out using specialized photogrammetric software (Agisoft Metashape) along with various GIS tools (e.g., Blue Marble Geographics Global Mapper and ESRI ArcMap). The photogrammetric products generated for the study, as detailed in this paper, include Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), orthomosaics (orthophotos), and others. At Sfântu Gheorghe beach, a comparison between 2023 and 2024 photogrammetric surveys revealed that the left bank of the Sf. Gheorghe Arm, at the river mouth into the Black Sea, suffered from a twist (erosion) of up to 64 metres. Additionally, on the selected perimetre (total area of 31,910 square meters ) from the beach and dune zone of Sf. Gheorghe, an area of up to 16,202 square meters was eroded between 2023 and 2024. This contrasts with the period between 2022 and 2023, during which deposition predominated. Erosion at the Danube mouths and the adjacent Black Sea coastline is driven by a complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural processes, including subsidence, sea-level rise, and episodic extreme storm events, contribute significantly to coastal dynamics. Meanwhile, human-induced factors, such as upstream hydrotechnical works that limits sediment transport, cutting of navigation canals, as well as the exacerbating effects of climate change, further accelerate erosion. The recent Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys provide essential quantitative data, enabling a detailed analysis of both short-term and long-term morphodynamic changes influenced by seasonal variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in this highly dynamic coastal system.

Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta)↗
USGS2026

The U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2025 U.S. Geological Survey Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast (ERF), developed for the 2025 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for PRVI. The updated ERF improves upon a prior model from 2003, including an expanded fault inventory with slip‐rate estimates, updated seismicity catalogs, and refined subduction zone geometries and deformation models. It applies the fault‐system inversion methodology to solve for rates of ruptures on modeled faults, adapted from the 2023 NSHM (NSHM23) for the western United States, including the first application of the inversion to model rates on a U.S. subduction interface. Off‐fault and intraslab seismicity are constrained by observed seismicity and use updated methods developed for NSHM23. Uncertainties in model components are substantial, and the ERF represents epistemic uncertainties through a comprehensive logic tree consisting of 1.7 billion logic‐tree branches combined across all sources.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2024

Pesticide occurrence in shallow groundwater in three regions of agricultural land use: Baldwin County, the Wiregrass region, and the Tennessee River valley region of Alabama, 2009–20

As part of a cooperative investigation between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Alabama Department of Agriculture and Industries, a network of 22 groundwater wells were sampled from 2014 through 2020 for about 230 pesticide and pesticide degradate compounds. Wells were located in three regions of intensive agricultural land use in Alabama: Baldwin County, the Wiregrass region, and the Tennessee River valley region. Metolachlor sulfonic acid, a degradate of the herbicide metolachlor, was the most frequently detected compound, occurring in about 70 percent of the samples. Three other compounds, metolachlor, atrazine, and 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino-s-triazine, were also detected in more than half of the samples. Metolachlor and its degradates accounted for 33 of the 50 greatest compound concentrations study-wide, including the maximum pesticide concentration across all compounds (62,500 nanograms per liter). The frequency and magnitude of detections of many specific pesticide compounds varied among the three regions, but all detected pesticide concentrations were well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant levels and applicable human health benchmarks. Sample results were combined with results of previous (2009–13) sampling to provide a continuous time-series of data for 2009–20. More than half of the 289 pesticide compounds analyzed during 2009–20 were not detected in any samples. Only four compounds were detected at great enough frequency throughout the 10 sampling years to evaluate patterns of change through time. Metolachlor and its degradate, metolachlor sulfonic acid, were frequently detected in all regions. Atrazine and its degradate, 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino-s-triazine, were also detected in wells from all regions, but the variability and magnitude of concentrations were greatest in the Tennessee River valley region. No apparent temporal pattern in concentrations was found.

Alabama↗
USGS2026

Fully contained laboratory earthquakes: The effect of asperity aspect ratio and free surfaces

Corner frequency ( f c ) and seismic moment ( M 0 ) are key parameters derived from seismic signals that are used to characterize earthquake stress drop, rupture area, and slip. These parameters are also affected by fault geometry and boundary conditions. However, the systematic study of these effects in laboratory settings has been challenging. This study presents laboratory earthquake experiments that examine how rupture dynamics are influenced by (a) the aspect ratio of rectangular PMMA velocity-weakening (VW) asperities surrounded by the Teflon velocity-strengthening (VS) patches, and (b) whether the sides of a VW asperity are confined with VS patches or are free surfaces. We found that increasing confinement by reducing free surfaces or increasing the VW asperity aspect ratio stabilizes fault slip, so that higher normal stress is required to transition from aseismic to seismic slip. Increased confinement and high aspect ratios also reduced M 0 and increased f c , both of which were determined from the radiated seismic waves. M 0 and f c were primarily controlled by the shorter dimension of the VW asperity. Analysis of high-frequency acoustic emission signals revealed that ruptures on high-aspect-ratio VW asperities propagated more unidirectionally, whereas ruptures on square VW asperities were more complex. Further, the high-aspect-ratio asperities were more likely to be eroded by surrounding VS regions while low-aspect-ratio asperities were more likely to rupture into the VS surroundings. These results demonstrate that both the confinement from surrounding stable areas and the geometry of the seismogenic patch can affect rupture nucleation, propagation, and seismic source characteristics.

JGR Solid Earth↗
USGS2025

Examining the role of elevated and sustained strain in dynamically triggering earthquakes on the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault

Microearthquakes can be dynamically triggered in southern California by remote earthquakes. However, directly connecting dynamic triggering mechanisms with observational data remains challenging. One proposed failure mechanism suggests that both the amplitude and duration of cyclic fatigue caused by the passing seismic wave contribute to triggering occurrence. Here, we measure dynamic strains recorded by borehole strainmeters in the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault zone from 710 earthquakes that occurred over 300 km away between 2008 and 2017 to systematically investigate the role of elevated and sustained strain in controlling dynamic triggering. We design a suite of tests to evaluate whether specific amplitude thresholds and durations of strain can predict dynamic triggering cases. We further test whether the peak dynamic strain (PDS) can predict triggering occurrence in combination with the strain amplitude and duration. Based on these tests, there is no strain amplitude–duration threshold that can distinguish triggering occurrence in Anza. Dynamic triggering is more likely to occur if a remote earthquake causes a PDS above 100 nanostrain, though many cases were triggered at smaller PDSs. The lack of clear correlation between triggering and characteristics of the dynamic strain field suggests that the tested features of the incoming waves do not determine triggering occurrence and local fault conditions and slip processes are more important in controlling dynamic triggering in Anza.

California↗
USGS2025

Magnitude, depth and methodological variations of spectral stress drop within the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present the first ensemble analysis of the 56 different sets of results submitted to the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence. Different assumptions and methods result in different estimation of the source contribution to recorded seismograms, and hence to the source parameters (principally corner frequency, f c ⁠ , spectral stress drop, Δσ, and seismic moment, M 0 ⁠ ) obtained from modeling calculated source spectra. For earthquakes smaller than magnitude (M) 2.5 there is negligible correlation between the f c values obtained by different studies, implying that no present method is reliable using available data. For larger magnitude events, correlation between f c measurements of different studies, within even a small M range is always higher than spectral ⁠Δσ , because the f c measurements simply reflect the underlying physical decrease in f c with increasing M. We model the observed trends of submitted f c with both magnitude and depth. Most methods report an increase in spectral Δσ with M, although a magnitude‐invariant spectral Δσ is within the confidence limits. The depth dependence is smaller and depends on whether a study allows attenuation to vary with source depth; a combination of depth‐dependent attenuation correction, and depth‐dependent shear‐wave velocity can compensate for reported depth trends. We model the submitted values to remove differing M and depth variation to investigate the relative interevent variability. We find consistent relative variation between individual events, and also lower relative spectral Δσ in the northwest of the aftershock sequence, and higher on the cross fault and in the region of main fault intersection. This large‐scale comparison implies that absolute spectral Δσ estimates are dependent on the methods used; studies of different regions or using different methods should not be directly compared and improved constraints on path and site corrections are needed to resolve these absolute spectral Δσ differences.

California↗