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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Simulation of water-table response to sea-level rise and change in recharge, Sandy Hook unit, Gateway National Recreation Area, New Jersey

The Sandy Hook Unit, Gateway National Recreation Area (hereafter Sandy Hook) in New Jersey is a 10-kilometer-long spit visited by thousands of people each year who take advantage of the historical and natural resources and recreational opportunities. The historical and natural resources are threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), changes in precipitation and groundwater recharge, and changes in the frequency and severity of coastal storms. Fresh groundwater resources are important to the ecosystems of Sandy Hook. The Bayside Holly Forest, one of only two known old-growth American holly ( Ilex opaca ) maritime forests, is particularly vulnerable to global climate change because of the proximity of the water table to land surface in low-lying areas and the potential for saltwater intrusion and inundation. The shallow groundwater-flow system on Sandy Hook is dominated by recharge from precipitation, fresh groundwater discharge to evapotranspiration (ET), discharge to surface seeps, and submarine groundwater discharge (groundwater discharging directly to the ocean). A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates the shallow groundwater-flow system and interaction with surrounding saltwater boundaries was constructed to simulate multi-density groundwater flow, treating the freshwater/saltwater transition zone as a sharp interface that represents the half-seawater surface. Groundwater-flow simulations completed for this study include a Baseline scenario, three SLR scenarios (0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 meter [m]), two Recharge scenarios—a 10-percent Increased Recharge scenario and a 10-percent Decreased Recharge scenario—and a scenario with 0.6 m of SLR and 10-percent increase in recharge. The Recharge scenarios indicate the system is not sensitive to a 10-percent increase or decrease in recharge from the Baseline scenario. In the SLR scenarios, SLR causes the water table to rise, resulting in increased fresh groundwater discharge to ET and seeps, and reduced submarine discharge compared to the Baseline scenario. The increased discharge to ET and seeps causes the magnitude of water-table rise to be less than that of SLR, which in turn causes the thickness of the freshwater lens to thin, reducing the depth to the half-seawater surface. Water-table rise associated with SLR diminishes the thickness of the unsaturated zone; comparing the Baseline and the 0.6-m SLR scenarios, the area where the simulated water table is above land surface increases by 50.6 hectares, from about 0.9 to 7.4 percent of the land area of Sandy Hook. Areas where the simulated water table is above land surface are likely to be emergent wetlands and contain freshwater if they are tens of meters or more from the shoreline. The steady-state simulations indicate that the percentage of land where the half-seawater surface is less than 9 m below the water table increases from about 2.5 percent (20 hectares) to about 9 percent (74 hectares) with 0.6 m of SLR. In low-lying areas close to the Sandy Hook Bay shoreline, the half-seawater surface is simulated to be as much as 20 m closer to the water table with SLR of 0.6 m. Transient salinization, if any, of shallow groundwater from increased frequency or severity of storm-driven inundation is not included in the analysis. Natural resources on Sandy Hook, particularly the Bayside Holly Forest, may be adversely affected by the rising water table associated with SLR. Freshwater emergent wetlands may increase in area at the expense of other ecosystem assemblages occurring in or on the edges of low-lying enclosed depressions. Cultural resources close to the water table, such as existing basements of structures, may be adversely affected.

New Jersey↗

USGS2022

Redundancy analysis reveals complex den use patterns by eastern spotted skunks, a conditional specialist

Wildlife managers tasked with understanding habitat and resource selection at the population level attempt to characterize patterns in nature that aid and inform conservation. Resource selection functions (RSFs), such as discrete choice analyses, are the standard convention to characterize the effects of habitat attributes on resource selection patterns. These tools are invaluable for wildlife management and conservation and have proven successful in numerous studies. However, the analysis of small datasets using RSF becomes problematic when attempting to account for complex sources of variation, and the inclusion of factors such as weather or intrinsic variation on target species' response may produce models with poor predictive ability. We compared the application of generalized linear mixed-effects modeling (GLMM) and redundancy analysis (RDA) on Appalachian spotted skunk ( Spilogale putorius putorius ) den selection data at four study sites within the George Washington, Jefferson, and Monongahela National Forests, and surrounding private lands in the Appalachian Mountains of western Virginia and northeastern West Virginia. We assessed the need for the inclusion of alternative sources of variation (i.e., weather conditions and individual intrinsic variation) in addition to standard habitat attributes to better identify sources of variation in den selection. The RDA elucidated complex and opposing relationships, whereby den type use was based on reproductive status or weather condition, which were not evident in the GLMM model that relied solely on habitat measures. Our results demonstrated the importance of examining resource selection data using multivariate techniques in addition to conventional discrete choice analyses to better understand intricate habitat–species relationships, especially for small datasets. Furthermore, from our analyses, we proposed that spotted skunks are neither a true generalist nor specialist species. We introduced and define the term “conditional specialist” to represent a species that is conditionally selective of a given resource in response to one or more current environmental or intrinsic conditions.

Viginia, West Virginia↗

USGS1998

In situ determination of particle friction angles of fluvial gravels

Particle friction angles Φ represent the physical resistance to initial movement of a sediment particle and are therefore useful for relating initiation of motion to particular flows. We determined over 8000 friction angle values at five natural rivers by applying a new method that uses a digital load cell to directly measure the force F d required to pivot or slide a particle out of its natural resting place. Within each site, median Φ values were very similar to previously reported relations, yet different enough between sites that a location-general predictive empirical relation would produce errors in Φ of ±10 degrees for D i / K s > 1. Furthermore, within a D i / K s class at a given site the range in Φ was as large as 80°, much greater than the range of median values between classes for natural sediment mixtures. Using estimates of τ c * from extensive bed load measurements made by Andrews and Erman [1986] at Sagehen Creek and the in situ Φ measurements made in this study together with a theoretical model developed by Wiberg and Smith [1987], we show that Φ measurements made with this new method can be used to accurately predict τ c * for natural, water-worked sediments. Additionally, these results confirm that a Φ value ≪Φ 50 is more appropriate for predicting τ c * of a given size class.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2013

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2015

Western water and climate change

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2011

Natural phosphorus sources for the Pacific Northwest

Phosphorus is a naturally occurring element found in all rocks; the amount varies by the type of rock. The amount of phosphorus in sediments is expected to be correlated with the amount of phosphorus in the parent rocks. Streambed sediment collected by the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program were used to estimate the variation of phosphorus across the Pacific Northwest. This file provides an estimate of the mean concentration of phosphorus in soils for each incremental catchment of the USGS Pacific Northwest SPARROW model.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2009

Table Rock Lake Water-Clarity Assessment Using Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite Data

Water quality of Table Rock Lake in southwestern Missouri is assessed using Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data. A pilot study uses multidate satellite image scenes in conjunction with physical measurements of secchi disk transparency collected by the Lakes of Missouri Volunteer Program to construct a regression model used to estimate water clarity. The natural log of secchi disk transparency is the dependent variable in the regression and the independent variables are Thematic Mapper band 1 (blue) reflectance and a ratio of the band 1 and band 3 (red) reflectance. The regression model can be used to reliably predict water clarity anywhere within the lake. A pixel-level lake map of predicted water clarity or computed trophic state can be produced from the model output. Information derived from this model can be used by water-resource managers to assess water quality and evaluate effects of changes in the watershed on water quality.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1984

Ground water in the Fresno area, California; preliminary report

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Fresno County, is developing a computer model of the unconfined aquifer system in the Fresno area. In the area, consolidated rocks are overlain by unconsolidated deposits. The unconsolidated deposits are divided into a lower fine-grained unit and an overlying coarse-grained unit. The system is assumed to be a single unconfined unit. The top of the system is the water table and the bottom is the base of the coarse-grained deposits. The northeastern boundary is the only natural lateral hydrologic boundary. The other lateral boundaries are placed so that errors along them will not affect heads in the area of interest. Initial heads for 1943, hydraulic conductivity, and bottom elevations were used in a steady-state model that generated net flux values. It is anticipated that most of the remaining effort will center on model calibration. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2001

Water budget for the Nueces Estuary, Texas, May-October 1998

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD), and Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) are charged by the Texas Legislature with determining freshwater inflows required to maintain the ecological health of streams, bays, and estuaries in Texas. To determine required inflows, the three agencies collect data and conduct studies on the needs for freshwater inflows to Texas estuaries. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the TWDB, conducted a study in the Nueces estuary (fig. 1) during May–October 1998 to provide water-budget data for calibration of a TWDB model that will be used to estimate the effects of different freshwater inflow volumes on circulation and salinity in the estuary. The water budget (inflows and outflows) for the Nueces estuary was estimated by using (1) data collected during this study, (2) data collected at two upstream streamflow-gaging stations previous to this study, and (3) evaporation and return-flow data obtained from other agencies. This fact sheet describes the data-collection methods and the results of the water-budget estimates for the Nueces estuary.

Texas↗

USGS2007

Climate Change Research at USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)

Research and development projects at EROS apply unique resources to support the USGS mission of developing understanding, monitoring, and modeling of climate variability and change and their human, physical, and biological impacts. Remote sensing resources, both new and archived, form the core of our ability to determine changes in the state or condition of the Earth’s surface and its dynamic landscape and ecosystem processes. This rich resource provides powerful biophysical information for local to global areas. Archival data form the basis for assessing human and climate impacts on the land surface, trends of land use, and an understanding of climate and management impacts. Biophysical information from satellite data is assimilated into quantitative models that allow all disciplines of the USGS to understand impacts on ecosystem processes. Major processes and problems we address include: carbon fluxes, hydrological processes, albedo changes and regional climates, mangroves and wetland protection of coastal environments, natural and manmade hazards (e.g., fire and drought), ecosystem change and succession, land use and land cover change, and more. The integration of remote sensing, modeling, and multidisciplinary approaches fosters international scientific leadership across all disciplines for the USGS.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1997

Water Budget for the Island of Molokai, Hawaii

Ground-water recharge is estimated from a monthly water budget calculated using long-term average rainfall and streamflow data, synthesized pan-evaporation data, and soil characteristics. The water-budget components are defined seasonally, through the use of monthly data, and spatially by geohydrologic areas, through the use of a geographic information system model.<\p> The long-term average ground-water recharge for Molokai was estimated for natural land-use conditions. The island-wide mean recharge rate for natural conditions is 189 million gallons per day, which is 34 percent of rainfall. The island-wide rainfall, direct runoff, and actual evapotranspiration are 552, 89, and 274 millions gallons per day, respectively.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Geology, sequence stratigraphy, and oil and gas assessment of the Lewis Shale Total Petroleum System, San Juan Basin, New Mexico and Colorado: Chapter 5 in Total petroleum systems and geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the San Juan Basin Province, exclusive of Paleozoic rocks, New Mexico and Colorado

The Lewis Shale Total Petroleum System (TPS) in the San Juan Basin Province contains a continuous gas accumulation in three distinct stratigraphic units deposited in genetically related depositional environments: offshore-marine shales, mudstones, siltstones, and sandstones of the Lewis Shale, and marginal-marine shoreface sandstones and siltstones of both the La Ventana Tongue and the Chacra Tongue of the Cliff House Sandstone. The Lewis Shale was not a completion target in the San Juan Basin (SJB) in early drilling from about the 1950s through 1990. During that time, only 16 wells were completed in the Lewis from natural fracture systems encountered while drilling for deeper reservoir objectives. In 1991, existing wells that penetrated the Lewis Shale were re-entered by petroleum industry operators in order to fracture-stimulate the Lewis and to add Lewis gas production onto preexisting, and presumably often declining, Mesaverde Group production stratigraphically lower in the section. By 1997, approximately 101 Lewis completions had been made, both as re-entries into existing wells and as add-ons to Mesaverde production in new wells. Based on recent industry drilling and completion practices leading to successful gas production from the Lewis and because new geologic models indicate that the Lewis Shale contains both source rocks and reservoir rocks, the Lewis Shale TPS was defined and evaluated as part of this U.S. Geological Survey oil and gas assessment of the San Juan Basin. Gas in the Lewis Shale Total Petroleum System is produced from shoreface sandstones and siltstones in the La Ventana and Chacra Tongues and from distal facies of these prograding clastic units that extend into marine rocks of the Lewis Shale in the central part of the San Juan Basin. Reservoirs are in shoreface sandstone parasequences of the La Ventana and Chacra and their correlative distal parasequences in the Lewis Shale where both natural and artificially enhanced fractures produce gas. The Lewis Continuous Gas Assessment Unit (AU 50220261) is thought to be self-sourced from and self-sealed by marine shales and mudstones deposited within the Lewis Shale that enclose clastic parasequences in the La Ventana and Chacra Tongues. The gas resource is thought to be a continuous accumulation sourced from the Lewis Shale throughout the depositional basin. In the Lewis Continuous Gas Assessment Unit (AU 50220261), for continuous gas resources, there is an F95 of 8,315.22 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG) and an F5 of 12,282.31 BCFG, with a mean value of 10,177.24 BCFG. There is an F95 of 18.08 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL) and an F5 of 47.32 MMBNGL, with a mean of 30.53 MMBNGL.

Colorado;New Mexico↗

USGS1984

Availability of natural and regulated streamflows for instream uses during historical droughts, lower Neosho River, southeastern Kansas

The effects of three historical droughts on streamflows available for instream use on the lower Neosho River at Iola and Parsons, Kansas, were investigated. Natural streamflows that occurred during the three droughts were compared to the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows recommended by State agencies. A reservoir model was used to investigate the effects of John Redmond Reservoir on the natural streamflows. The regulated streamflow produced from the reservoir model then was compared to the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows. The regulated streamflows usually satisfied the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows more often than the natural streamflows. Frequency analysis made on the natural and regulated streamflows showed that the number of days of low flow (less than 30 cubic feet per second) were reduced by the regulated streamflows, which aided in the achievement of the multiple-use and water-quality streamflows goals. The reservoir model was used to determine if sufficient storage was available in John Redmond Reservoir to modify the natural streamflows in order to satisfy the multiple-use and water-quality streamflow recommendations. Additional storage of 15,400 acre-feet was estimated to be needed to maintain the multiple-use streamflows at Parsons.

Kansas, Missouri↗

USGS2019

Adaptive management of flows from R.L. Harris Dam (Tallapoosa River, Alabama)—Stakeholder process and use of biological monitoring data for decision making

Adaptive management has been applied to problems with multiple conflicting objectives in various natural resources settings to learn how management actions affect divergent values regarding system response. Hydropower applications have only recently begun to emerge in the field, yet in the specific example reported herein, stakeholders invested in determining the best management alternatives for attainment of a suite of objectives outlined in a long-term adaptive management program below R.L. Harris Dam, a large, privately owned dam in Alabama. Stakeholders convened an objective-setting workshop to engage a governance structure and developed a decision support model to determine appropriate actions that optimized stakeholder values. The process led to implemented change in dam operation inclusive of incorporating hypothetical responses in system parameters to management. To account for the iterative loop of adaptive management, yearly monitoring of state variables that approximated many stakeholder objectives was performed from 2005 to 2016 and data collected were incorporated into the decision model. Specific analysis of fish and macroinvertebrate population responses indicated a less than satisfactory response for some stakeholders to the flow-management changes at the dam. Uncertainty regarding the best management to provide adequate hydrologic and thermal habitats for fauna and boatable days for recreationists still exists. The project led to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission process for renewing the license to operate the dam (beginning in 2018); adaptive management could be a viable path forward to ensure stakeholder satisfaction related to new management options.

Alabama↗

USGS2022

Response of Green Lake, Wisconsin, to changes in phosphorus loading, with special emphasis on near-surface total phosphorus concentrations and metalimnetic dissolved oxygen minima

Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment. As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll- a (Chl- a ) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl- a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl- a ) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl- a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2004

The Colorado Plateau: cultural, biological, and physical research

Stretching from the four corners of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah, the Colorado Plateau is a natural laboratory for a wide range of studies. This volume presents 23 original articles drawn from more than 100 research projects presented at the Sixth Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau. This scientific gathering revolved around research, inventory, and monitoring of lands in the region. The book's contents cover management techniques for cultural, biological, and physical resources, representing collaborative efforts among federal, university, and private sector scientists and land managers. Chapters on cultural concerns cover benchmarks of modern southwestern anthropological knowledge, models of past human activity and impact of modern visitation at newly established national monuments, challenges in implementing the 1964 Wilderness Act, and opportunities for increased federal research on Native American lands. The section on biological resources comprises sixteen chapters, with coverage that ranges from mammalian biogeography to responses of elk at the urban-wildland interface. Additional biological studies include the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation; research on bald eagles at Grand Canyon and tracking wild turkeys using radio collars; and management of palentological resources. Two final chapters on physical resources consider a proposed rerouting of the Rio de Flag River in urban Flagstaff, Arizona, and an examination of past climate patterns over the Plateau, using stream flow records and tree ring data. In light of similarities in habitat and climate across the Colorado Plateau, techniques useful to particular management units have been found to be applicable in many locations. This volume highlights an abundance of research that will prove useful for all of those working in the region, as well as for others seeking comparative studies that integrate research into land management actions.

Utah;Colorado;Arizona;New Mexico↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km 3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km 3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km 3 ) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Water Resources Research↗