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Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest–South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Western United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Western United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the Great Plains of the United States--1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–B is the second in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Great Plains of the United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Midwest–South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Great Plains of the United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Great Plains of the United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Great Plains↗

Status and trends of land change in the Midwest–South Central United States—1973 to 2000

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–C is the third in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Midwest–South Central United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Midwest–South Central United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Midwest–South Central United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research.

Professional Paper↗

Status and trends of land change in the Eastern United States—1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–D is the fourth in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Eastern United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and C provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Midwest–South Central United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Eastern United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Eastern United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

Extent of the Last Glacial Maximum (Tioga) glaciation in Yosemite National Park and vicinity, California

Yosemite National Park, located in the central Sierra Nevada in California, is an icon of the U.S. National Park system. It is famous for its many spectacular geologic features, which include the towering cliffs and hanging waterfalls of Yosemite Valley and the rounded granite domes, deep blue lakes, and jagged peaks and spires of the high country. More subtle but just as spectacular are the vast areas of polished granite, linear scratches, and isolated boulders scattered across the landscape. All of these features owe their origin, at least in part, to glaciers. Glaciers originating at the crest of the Sierra Nevada flowed down preexisting river canyons numerous times throughout the Quaternary Period (the past 2.6 million years). Although the field evidence for past glaciations is necessarily incomplete, at least seven distinct glacial periods have been identified in the Sierra Nevada, spanning a minimum of 1.5 million years. This map shows the extent of alpine icefields and associated valley glaciers in Yosemite National Park and vicinity during the most recent large glaciation, known as the Last Glacial Maximum, a globally recognized cold period characterized by low sea levels and the growth of ice sheets and mountain glaciers. In the Sierra Nevada, the Last Glacial Maximum glaciation is referred to as the Tioga glaciation. By virtue of being the most recent of the large Pleistocene glaciations, the evidence for the Tioga glaciation is abundant and relatively well preserved in the Yosemite landscape. The Tioga glaciation likely involved at least two, and perhaps as many as four, major glacial advances spanning the interval from approximately 27,000 to 15,000 years ago; the largest of these, representing the maximum ice extent shown on the map, occurred from approximately 21,000 to 18,000 years ago. Although it is possible that the various Tioga-age glaciers in the study area attained their maximum extents at slightly different times during the Last Glacial Maximum, for the purposes of this map we assume that they reached their maximum extents simultaneously. The maximum ice extent shown here may have occupied certain areas only briefly. During the maximum extent of the Tioga glaciation, glaciers and ice fields covered most areas in and around Yosemite National Park above 2,700 meters elevation, having a profound impact on the Yosemite landscape. In addition to sculpting most of the granite monoliths for which the park is famous, glaciation also dictated the distribution of many geological, hydrological, and ecological features. Thus, the lasting effects of Tioga glaciation are still readily observable in Yosemite National Park today.

California↗

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

Biogeosciences↗

Ictalurids in Iowa’s streams and rivers: Status, distribution, and relationships with biotic integrity

Anthropogenic alterations to Iowa’s landscape have greatly altered lotic systems with consequent effects on the biodiversity of freshwater fauna. Ictalurids are a diverse group of fishes and play an important ecological role in aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about their distribution and status in lotic systems throughout Iowa. The purpose of this study was to describe the distribution of ictalurids in Iowa and examine their relationship with ecological integrity of streams and rivers. Historical data (i.e., 1884–2002) compiled for the Iowa Aquatic Gap Analysis Project (IAGAP) were used to detect declines in the distribution of ictalurids in Iowa streams and rivers at stream segment and watershed scales. Eight variables characterizing ictalurid assemblages were used to evaluate relationships with index of biotic integrity (IBI) ratings. Comparisons of recent and historic data from the IAGAP database indicated that 9 of Iowa’s 10 ictalurid species experienced distribution declines at one or more spatial scales. Analysis of variance indicated that ictalurid assemblages differed among samples with different IBI ratings. Specifically, total ictalurid, sensitive ictalurid, and Noturus spp. richness increased as IBI ratings increased. Results indicate declining ictalurid species distributions and biotic integrity are related, and management strategies aimed to improve habitat and increase biotic integrity will benefit ictalurid species.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

Density dependence and weather drive dabbling duck spatiotemporal distributions and intercontinental migration

Understanding migratory waterfowl spatiotemporal distributions is important because, in addition to their economic and cultural value, wild waterfowl can be infectious reservoirs of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Waterfowl migration has been implicated in regional and intercontinental HPAIV dispersal, and predictive capabilities of where and when HPAIV may be introduced to susceptible spillover hosts would facilitate biosecurity and mitigation efforts. To develop forecasts for HPAIV dispersal, an improved understanding of how individual birds interact with their environment and move on a landscape scale is required. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we integrated individual-scale energetics, species-specific morphology and behavior, and landscape-scale weather and habitat data in a mechanistic stochastic framework to simulate Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) annual migration across the Northern Hemisphere. Our model recreated biologically realistic migratory patterns using a first principles approach to waterfowl ecology, behavior, and physiology. Conducting a limited structural sensitivity analysis comparing reduced models to eBird Status and Trends in reference to the full model, we identified density dependence as the main factor influencing spring migration and breeding distributions, and wind as the main factor influencing fall migration and overwintering distributions. We show evidence of weather patterns in Northeast Asia causing significant intercontinental pintail migration to North America. By linking individual energetics to landscape-scale processes, we identify key drivers of waterfowl migration while developing a predictive model responsive to daily weather patterns. This model paves the way for future waterfowl migration research predicting HPAIV transmission, climate change impacts, and oil spill effects.

Avian Research↗

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Alaska↗

Fire effects on wildlife in Central Hardwoods and Appalachian regions

Fire is being prescribed and used increasingly to promote ecosystem restoration (e.g., oak woodlands and savannas) and to manage wildlife habitat in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachian regions, USA. However, questions persist as to how fire affects hardwood forest communities and associated wildlife, and how fire should be used to achieve management goals. We provide an up-to-date review of fire effects on various wildlife species and their habitat in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians. Documented direct effects (i.e., mortality) on wildlife are rare. Indirect effects (i.e., changes in habitat quality) are influenced greatly by light availability, fire frequency, and fire intensity. Unless fire intensity is great enough to kill a portion of the overstory, burning in closed-canopy forests has provided little benefit for most wildlife species in the region because it doesn’t result in enough sunlight penetration to elicit understory response. Canopy reduction through silvicultural treatment has enabled managers to use fire more effectively. Fire intensity must be kept low in hardwoods to limit damage to many species of overstory trees. However, wounding or killing trees with fire benefits many wildlife species by allowing increased sunlight to stimulate understory response, snag and subsequent cavity creation, and additions of large coarse woody debris. In general, a fire-return interval of 2 yr to 7 yr benefits a wide variety of wildlife species by providing a diverse structure in the understory; increasing browse, forage, and soft mast; and creating snags and cavities. Historically, dormant-season fire was most prevalent in these regions, and it still is when most prescribed fire is implemented in hardwood systems as burn-days are relatively few in the growing season of May through August because of shading from leaf cover and high fuel moisture. Late growing-season burning increases the window for burning, and better control on woody composition is possible. Early growing-season fire may pose increased risk for some species, especially herpetofauna recently emerged from winter hibernacula (April) or forest songbirds that nest in the understory (May to June). However, negative population-level effects are unlikely unless the burned area is relatively large and early growing-season fire is used continually. We did not find evidence that fire is leading to population declines for any species, including Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed species (e.g., Indiana bat [ Myotis sodalis Mill. Allen] or northern long-eared bat [ M. septentrionalis Trouess.]). Instead, data indicate that fire can enhance habitat for bats by increasing suitability of foraging and day-roost sites. Similarly, concern over burning and displacement of woodland salamanders (Plethodontidae), another taxa of heightened conservation concern, is alleviated when fire is prescribed along ecologically appropriate aspect and slope gradients and not forced into mesic, high site index environments where salamanders are most common. Because topography across the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians is diverse, we contend that applying fire on positions best suited for burning is an effective approach to increase regional landscape heterogeneity and biological diversity. Herein, we offer prescriptive concepts for burning for various wildlife species and guilds in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians.

Appalachian region, Central Hardwoods region↗

GPS tracking data reveals daily spatio-temporal movement patterns of waterfowl

Background Spatio-temporal patterns of movement can characterize relationships between organisms and their surroundings, and address gaps in our understanding of species ecology, activity budgets, bioenergetics, and habitat resource management. Highly mobile waterfowl, which can exploit resources over large spatial extents, are excellent models to understand relationships between movements and resource usage, landscape interactions and specific habitat needs. Methods We tracked 3 species of dabbling ducks with GPS-GSM transmitters in 2015–17 to examine fine-scale movement patterns over 24 h periods (30 min interval), dividing movement pathways into temporally continuous segments and spatially contiguous patches. We quantified distances moved, area used and time allocated across the day, using linear and generalized linear mixed models. We investigated behavior through relationships between these variables. Results Movements and space-use were small, and varied by species, sex and season. Gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) generally moved least (FFDs: 0.5–0.7 km), but their larger foraging patches resulted from longer within-area movements. Pintails ( Anas acuta ) moved most, were more likely to conduct flights > 300 m, had FFDs of 0.8–1.1 km, used more segments and patches per day that they revisited more frequently, resulting in the longest daily total movements. Females and males differed only during the post-hunt season when females moved more. 23.6% of track segments were short duration (1–2 locations), approximately 1/3 more than would be expected if they occurred randomly, and were more dispersed in the landscape than longer segments. Distance moved in 30 min shortened as segment duration increased, likely reflecting phases of non-movement captured within segments. Conclusions Pacific Flyway ducks spend the majority of time using smaller foraging and resting areas than expected or previously reported, implying that foraging areas may be highly localized, and nutrients obtainable from smaller areas. Additionally, movement reductions over time demonstrates behavioral adjustments that represent divergent energetic demands, the detection of which is a key advantage of higher frequency data. Ducks likely use less energy for movement than currently predicted and management, including distribution and configuration of essential habitat, may require reconsideration. Our study illustrates how fine-scale movement data from tracking help understand and inform various other fields of research.

California↗

Linking the agricultural landscape of the Midwest to stream health with structural equation modeling

Multiple physical and chemical stressors can simultaneously affect the biological condition of streams. To better understand the complex interactions of land-use practices, water quality, and ecological integrity of streams, the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Project is conducting regional-scale assessments of stream condition across the United States. In the summer of 2013, weekly water samples were collected from 100 streams in the Midwestern United States. Employing watershed theory, we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to represent a general hypothesis for how 16 variables (previously identified to be important to stream condition) might be inter-related. Again, using SEM, we evaluated the ability of this “stressor network” to explain variations in multimetrics of algal, invertebrate, and fish community health, trimming away any environmental variables not contributing to an explanation of the ecological responses. Seven environmental variables—agricultural and urban land use, sand content of soils, basin area, percent riparian area as forest, channel erosion, and relative bed stability—were found to be important for all three-community metrics. The algal and invertebrate models included water-chemistry variables not included in the fish model. Results suggest that ecological integrity of Midwest streams are affected by both agricultural and urban land uses and by the natural geologic setting, as indicated by the sand content of soils. Chemicals related to crops (pesticides and nutrients) and residential uses (pyrethroids) were found to be more strongly related to ecological integrity than were natural factors (riparian forest, watershed soil character).

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Prioritizing bottomland hardwood forest sites for protection and augmentation

Bottomland hardwood forest has been greatly diminished by conversion to agriculture. Less than 25% of the pre-Columbian bottomland hardwood forests remain in the southeastern United States. Because of the valuable ecological and hydrological functions performed by these forests, their conservation and restoration has been a high priority. Part of these restoration efforts has focused on developing tools that can be used for both assessments at the landscape level and policy implementation at the local level. The distribution of bottomland hardwood forests in the Cache and White River watersheds in eastern Arkansas were examined using existing GIS databases. Criteria were developed to select areas that should be conserved or augmented for wildlife habitat. Over 67% of the study area was classified as agriculture, with bottomland hardwood forest the next largest habitat class. The thickness of a forest fragment was defined as the radius of the largest circle that can be inscribed in a fragment. Thickness was used in three ways. First, individual forest fragments were identified and selected based on ecological function using criteria we established. Second, individual fragments that were too small to support interior species, but large enough that if moderately augmented they could recover that function, were identified and selected. These augmentable fragments were further prioritized by adjacency to habitat that might be suitable for reforestation, namely agriculture. Third, watersheds were prioritized for conservation and augmentation based on the size and distributions of forest fragment thickness and area within each watershed.

Arkansas↗

Genetic variation reveals influence of landscape connectivity on population dynamics and resiliency of western trout in disturbance-prone habitats

Salmonid fishes have evolved and persisted in dynamic ecosystems where disturbance events vary in frequency, magnitude, timing, and duration, as well as the specific nature of associated effects (e.g., changes in thermal or flow regimes, geomorphology, or water chemistry). In the western United States, one of the major drivers of disturbance in stream ecosystems is fire. Although there is a growing consensus that fish populations can ultimately benefit from the productive and heterogeneous habitats created by fire, to persist they obviously have to withstand the immediate and shorter-term effects of fire, which can reduce or even extirpate local populations. Movement among interconnected stream habitats is thought to be an important strategy enabling persistence during and following fire, and there is mounting concern that the extensive isolation of salmonid populations in fragmented habitats is reducing their resiliency to fire. In spite of this concern, there are few direct observations of salmonid responses to fire. In fact, guidance is based largely on a broader understanding of the influences of landscape structure and disturbance in general on salmonid fishes, and there is considerable uncertainty about how best to manage for salmonid resilience to wildfire. Studies are limited by the difficult logistics of following fish responses in the face of unpredictable events such as wildfires. Therefore, BACI (Before-After-Control-Impact) study designs are nearly impossible, and replication is similarly challenging because fires are often low-frequency events. Furthermore, conventional ecological study approaches (e.g., studies of fish distribution, abundance, life histories, and movement) are logistically difficult to implement. Overall, a major challenge to understanding resilience of salmonid populations in fire-prone environments is related to moving beyond localized case studies to those with broader applicability in wildfire management . Genetic data can be useful for overcoming many of the limitations inherent in ecological studies. Here we review several case studies of western trout where population genetic data have provided insight about fish responses to fragmentation and disturbance more generally, and specifically in relation to fire. Results of these studies confirm the importance of movement and landscape connectivity for ensuring fish persistence in fire-prone landscapes, and highlight the usefulness of genetic approaches for broad-scale evaluation and monitoring of population responses to fire and related management actions.

Technical Report↗

Applying circuit theory and landscape linkage maps to reintroduction planning for California condors

Conservation practitioners are increasingly looking to species translocations as a tool to recover imperiled taxa. Quantitative predictions of where animals are likely to move when released into new areas would allow managers to better address the social, institutional, and ecological dimensions of conservation translocations. Using >5 million California condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ) occurrence locations from 75 individuals, we developed and tested circuit-based models to predict condor movement away from release sites. We found that circuit-based models of electrical current were well calibrated to the distribution of condor movement data in southern and central California (continuous Boyce Index = 0.86 and 0.98, respectively). Model calibration was improved in southern California when additional nodes were added to the circuit to account for nesting and feeding areas, where condor movement densities were higher (continuous Boyce Index = 0.95). Circuit-based projections of electrical current around a proposed release site in northern California comported with the condor’s historical distribution and revealed that, initially, condor movements would likely be most concentrated in northwestern California and southwest Oregon. Landscape linkage maps, which incorporate information on landscape resistance, complement circuit-based models and aid in the identification of specific avenues for population connectivity or areas where movement between populations may be constrained. We found landscape linkages in the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada provided the most connectivity to a proposed reintroduction site in northern California. Our methods are applicable to conservation translocations for other species and are flexible, allowing researchers to develop multiple competing hypotheses when there are uncertainties about landscape or social attractants, or uncertainties in the landscape conductance surface.

Central California↗

Tidal extension and sea-level rise: recommendations for a research agenda

Sea-level rise is pushing freshwater tides upstream into formerly non-tidal rivers. This tidal extension may increase the area of tidal freshwater ecosystems and offset loss of ecosystem functions due to salinization downstream. Without considering how gains in ecosystem functions could offset losses, landscape-scale assessments of ecosystem functions may be biased toward worst-case scenarios of loss. To stimulate research on this concept, we address three fundamental questions about tidal extension: Where will tidal extension be most evident, and can we measure it? What ecosystem functions are influenced by tidal extension, and how can we measure them? How do watershed processes, climate change, and tidal extension interact to affect ecosystem functions? Our preliminary answers lead to recommendations that will advance tidal extension research, enable better predictions of the impacts of sea-level rise, and help balance the landscape-scale benefits of ecosystem function with costs of response.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Long-term survival despite low genetic diversity in the critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle

The critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle (Haliaeetus vociferoides) is considered to be one of the rarest birds of prey globally and at significant risk of extinction. In the most recent census, only 222 adult individuals were recorded with an estimated total breeding population of no more than 100-120 pairs. Here, levels of Madagascar fish-eagle population genetic diversity based on 47 microsatellite loci were compared with its sister species, the African fish-eagle (Haliaeetus vocifer), and 16 of these loci were also characterized in the white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) and the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). Overall, extremely low genetic diversity was observed in the Madagascar fish-eagle compared to other surveyed Haliaeetus species. Determining whether this low diversity is the result of a recent bottleneck or a more historic event has important implications for their conservation. Using a Bayesian coalescent-based method, we show that Madagascar fish-eagles have maintained a small effective population size for hundreds to thousands of years and that its low level of neutral genetic diversity is not the result of a recent bottleneck. Therefore, efforts made to prevent Madagascar fish-eagle extinction should place high priority on maintenance of habitat requirements and reducing direct and indirect human persecution. Given the current rate of deforestation in Madagascar, we further recommend that the population be expanded to occupy a larger geographical distribution. This will help the population persist when exposed to stochastic factors (e.g. climate and disease) that may threaten a species consisting of only 200 adult individuals while inhabiting a rapidly changing landscape. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Molecular Ecology↗

Landscape heterogeneity shapes predation in a newly restored predator-prey system

Because some native ungulates have lived without top predators for generations, it has been uncertain whether runaway predation would occur when predators are newly restored to these systems. We show that landscape features and vegetation, which influence predator detection and capture of prey, shape large-scale patterns of predation in a newly restored predator-prey system. We analysed the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) predation on elk (Cervus elaphus) on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park over 10 consecutive winters. The influence of wolf distribution on kill sites diminished over the course of this study, a result that was likely caused by territorial constraints on wolf distribution. In contrast, landscape factors strongly influenced kill sites, creating distinct hunting grounds and prey refugia. Elk in this newly restored predator-prey system should be able to mediate their risk of predation by movement and habitat selection across a heterogeneous risk landscape. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecology Letters↗