USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Climate”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: Dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth throughout interior Alaska that have become more prevalent during the 20th century. Similarly, demographic studies show that white spruce tree growth is substantially limited by soil moisture availability in both mid- and late-successional stands. Interannual variability in tree growth among stands within a landscape exhibits greater synchrony than does growth of trees that occupy different landscapes, which agrees with dendrochronological findings that the responses depend on landscape position and prevailing climate. In contrast, the results from 18 years of a summer moisture limitation experiment showed that growth in midsuccessional upland stands was unaffected by moisture limitation and that moisture limitation decreased white spruce growth in floodplain stands where it was expected that growth would be less vulnerable because of tree access to river water. Taken together, the evidence from the different perspectives analyzed in this study clearly indicates that white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska is vulnerable to the effects of warming on plant water balance.

Alaska↗
USGS1995

Evaluating growth of the Porcupine Caribou Herd using a stochastic model

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions of potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1,000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89, r̄ = 0.013; 1989-92, r̄ = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89, r = 0.048; 1989-92, r = -0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r, followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds, or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change, would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847, or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472, would be sufficient to cause a declining population, if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates, in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation, to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations, optimize sampling investment, and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Precipitation induced stream flow: An event based chemical and isotopic study of a small stream in the Great Plains region of the USA

A small stream in the Great Plains of USA was sampled to understand the streamflow components following intense precipitation and the influence of water storage structures in the drainage basin. Precipitation, stream, ponds, ground-water and soil moisture were sampled for determination of isotopic (D, 18O) and chemical (Cl, SO4) composition before and after two intense rain events. Following the first storm event, flow at the downstream locations was generated primarily through shallow subsurface flow and runoff whereas in the headwaters region - where a pond is located in the stream channel - shallow ground-water and pond outflow contributed to the flow. The distinct isotopic signatures of precipitation and the evaporated pond water allowed separation of the event water from the other sources that contributed to the flow. Similarly, variations in the Cl and SO4 concentrations helped identify the relative contributions of ground-water and soil moisture to the streamflow. The relationship between deuterium excess and Cl or SO4 content reveals that the early contributions from a rain event to streamflow depend upon the antecedent climatic conditions and the position along the stream channel within the watershed. The design of this study, in which data from several locations within a watershed were collected, shows that in small streams changes in relative contributions from ground water and soil moisture complicate hydrograph separation, with surface-water bodies providing additional complexity. It also demonstrates the usefulness of combined chemical and isotopic methods in hydrologic investigations, especially the utility of the deuterium excess parameter in quantifying the relative contributions of various source components to the stream flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2013

Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. west coast

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the source of 30%–50% of all precipitation in the same region. The present study surveys the frequency with which ARs have played a critical role as a common cause of the end of droughts on the West Coast. This question was based on the observation that, in most cases, droughts end abruptly as a result of the arrival of an especially wet month or, more exactly, a few very large storms. This observation is documented using both Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index measures of drought occurrence for climate divisions across the conterminous United States from 1895 to 2010. When the individual storm sequences that contributed most to the wet months that broke historical West Coast droughts from 1950 to 2010 were evaluated, 33%–74% of droughts were broken by the arrival of landfalling AR storms. In the Pacific Northwest, 60%–74% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by the arrival of AR storms. In California, about 33%–40% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by landfalling AR storms, with more localized low pressure systems responsible for many of the remaining drought breaks.

California;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2013

Measuring environmental change in forest ecosystems by repeated soil sampling: a North American perspective

Environmental change is monitored in North America through repeated measurements of weather, stream and river flow, air and water quality, and most recently, soil properties. Some skepticism remains, however, about whether repeated soil sampling can effectively distinguish between temporal and spatial variability, and efforts to document soil change in forest ecosystems through repeated measurements are largely nascent and uncoordinated. In eastern North America, repeated soil sampling has begun to provide valuable information on environmental problems such as air pollution. This review synthesizes the current state of the science to further the development and use of soil resampling as an integral method for recording and understanding environmental change in forested settings. The origins of soil resampling reach back to the 19th century in England and Russia. The concepts and methodologies involved in forest soil resampling are reviewed and evaluated through a discussion of how temporal and spatial variability can be addressed with a variety of sampling approaches. Key resampling studies demonstrate the type of results that can be obtained through differing approaches. Ongoing, large-scale issues such as recovery from acidification, long-term N deposition, C sequestration, effects of climate change, impacts from invasive species, and the increasing intensification of soil management all warrant the use of soil resampling as an essential tool for environmental monitoring and assessment. Furthermore, with better awareness of the value of soil resampling, studies can be designed with a long-term perspective so that information can be efficiently obtained well into the future to address problems that have not yet surfaced.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2021

Abiotic stress and biotic factors mediate range dynamics on opposing edges

Aim In the face of global change, understanding causes of range limits are one of the most pressing needs in biogeography and ecology. A prevailing hypothesis is that abiotic stress forms cold (upper latitude/altitude) limits, whereas biotic interactions create warm (lower) limits. A new framework – Interactive Range-Limit Theory (iRLT) – asserts that positive biotic factors such as food availability can ameliorate abiotic stress along cold edges, whereas abiotic stress can have a positive effect and mediate biotic interactions (e.g., competition) along warm limits. Location Northeastern United States Taxon Carnivora Methods We evaluated two hypotheses of iRLT using occupancy and structural equation modeling (SEM) frameworks based on data collected over a 6-year period (2014–2019) of six carnivore species across a broad latitudinal (42.8–45.3°N) and altitudinal (3–1451 m) gradient. Results We found that snow directly limits populations, but prey or habitat availability can influence range dynamics along cold edges. For example, bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) and coyotes ( Canis latrans ) were limited by deep snow and long winters, but the availability of prey had a strong positive effect. Conversely, snow had a strong positive effect on the warm limits of Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ), countering the negative effect of competition with the phylogenetically similar bobcat and with coyotes, highlighting how climate mediates competition between species. Main conclusions We used an integrated dataset that included competitors and prey species collected at the same spatial and temporal scale. As such, this design, along with a causal modeling framework (SEM), allowed us to evaluate community-wide hypotheses at macroecological scales and identify coarse-scale drivers of species' range limits. Our study supports iRLT and underscores the need to consider direct and indirect mechanisms for studying range dynamics and species' responses to global change.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS1990

Effects of elevated temperatures and rising sea level on Arctic Coast

Ice is a major agent on the inner shelf, gouging the bottom, increasing hydraulic scour, transporting sediment, and influencing river flood patterns. Rapid coastal retreat is common and low barrier islands and beaches are constantly changing due to the influence of permafrost, ice‐push, waves, and currents. Coastal processes are presently a balance between the influence of ice and the action of waves and currents. Quantitative values for processes are poorly known, however our qualitative understanding is nearly complete. Climatic warming and rising sea levels would decrease the temporal and aerial extent of coastal ice thereby expanding the role of waves and currents. As a result, shoreline retreat rates would increase, producing a transgressive erosional surface on the low coastal plain. With increased wave activity, beaches and barrier islands presently nourished by ice push processes would decay and disappear. Increased sediment supply from a deeply thawed, active layer would release more sediments to rivers and coasts. Additional research should be focused on permafrost and sea ice processes active during freeze up and breakup; the two seasons of most vigorous activity and change.

Journal of Cold Regions Engineering↗
USGS2016

Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States

In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete ( Borrelia burgdorferi ) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2007

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Michigan↗
USGS2008

Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (198696)

The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for the period 1986 through 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement maps and time series plots with Hovmo??ller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in order to reveal the underlying space?time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and human-started fires during the 11-year interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution of vegetation across the West and the annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather-related controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural areas. Although the primary controls of human-started fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. ?? IAWF 2008.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2018

Managing the water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Central Asia

This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2016

Using climate, energy, and spatial-based hypotheses to interpret macroecological patterns of North America chelonians

Our study investigates how factors, such as latitude, productivity, and several environmental variables, influence contemporary patterns of the species richness in North American turtles. In particular, we test several hypotheses explaining broad-scale species richness patterns on several species richness data sets: ( i ) total turtles, ( ii ) freshwater turtles only, ( iii ) aquatic turtles, ( iv ) terrestrial turtles only, ( v ) Emydidae, and ( vi ) Kinosternidae. In addition to spatial data, we used a combination of 25 abiotic variables in spatial regression models to predict species richness patterns. Our results provide support for multiple hypotheses related to broad-scale patterns of species richness, and in particular, hypotheses related to climate, productivity, water availability, topography, and latitude. In general, species richness patterns were positively associated with temperature, precipitation, diversity of streams, coefficient of variation of elevation, and net primary productivity. We also found that North America turtles follow the general latitudinal diversity gradient pattern (i.e., increasing species richness towards equator) by exhibiting a negative association with latitude. Because of the incongruent results among our six data sets, our study highlights the importance of considering phylogenetic constraints and guilds when interpreting species richness patterns, especially for taxonomic groups that occupy a myriad of habitats.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS2011

The influence of irrigation water on the hydrology and lake water budgets of two small arid-climate lakes in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

Little is known regarding the origins and hydrology of hundreds of small lakes located in the western Uzbekistan province of Khorezm, Central Asia. Situated in the Aral Sea Basin, Khorezm is a productive agricultural region, growing mainly cotton, wheat, and rice. Irrigation is provided by an extensive canal network that conveys water from the Amu Darya River (AD) throughout the province. The region receives on average 10 cm/year of precipitation, yet potential evapotranspiration exceeds this amount by about 15 times. It was hypothesized that the perennial existence of the lakes of interest depends on periodic input of excess irrigation water. This hypothesis was investigated by studying two small lakes in the region, Tuyrek and Khodjababa. In June and July 2008, surface water and shallow groundwater samples were collected at these lake systems and surrounding communities and analyzed for δ 2 H, δ 18 O, and major ion hydrochemistry to determine water sources. Water table and lake surface elevations were monitored, and the local aquifer characteristics were determined through aquifer tests. These data and climate data from a Class A evaporation pan and meteorological stations were used to estimate water budgets for both lakes. Lake evaporation was found to be about 0.7 cm/day during the study period. Results confirm that the waters sampled at both lake systems and throughout central Khorezm were evaporated from AD water to varying degrees. Together, the water budgets and stable isotope and major ion hydrochemistry data suggest that without surface water input from some source (i.e. excess irrigation water), these and other Khorezm lakes with similar hydrology may decrease in volume dramatically, potentially to the point of complete desiccation.

Khorezm↗
USGS2020

The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics

We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon-chemistry-climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous-generation coupled ESM2-carbon and CM3-chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land-atmosphere-ocean cycling of CO 2 , dust and iron, and interactive ocean-atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO 2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAM↗
USGS2013

Generalized additive regression models of discharge and mean velocity associated with direct-runoff conditions in Texas: Utility of the U.S. Geological Survey discharge measurement database

A database containing more than 17,700 discharge values and ancillary hydraulic properties was assembled from summaries of discharge measurement records for 424 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gauging stations (stream gauges) in Texas. Each discharge exceeds the 90th-percentile daily mean streamflow as determined by period-of-record, stream-gauge-specific, flow-duration curves. Each discharge therefore is assumed to represent discharge measurement made during direct-runoff conditions. The hydraulic properties of each discharge measurement included concomitant cross-sectional flow area, water-surface top width, and reported mean velocity. Systematic and statewide investigation of these data in pursuit of regional models for the estimation of discharge and mean velocity has not been previously attempted. Generalized additive regression modeling is used to develop readily implemented procedures by end-users for estimation of discharge and mean velocity from select predictor variables at ungauged stream locations. The discharge model uses predictor variables of cross-sectional flow area, top width, stream location, mean annual precipitation, and a generalized terrain and climate index (OmegaEM) derived for a previous flood-frequency regionalization study. The mean velocity model uses predictor variables of discharge, top width, stream location, mean annual precipitation, and OmegaEM. The discharge model has an adjusted R-squared value of about 0.95 and a residual standard error (RSE) of about 0.22 base-10 logarithm (cubic meters per second); the mean velocity model has an adjusted R-squared value of about 0.67 and an RSE of about 0.063 fifth root (meters per second). Example applications and computations using both regression models are provided. - See more at: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0000635#sthash.jhGyPxgZ.dpuf

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗
USGS2011

Response of spectral vegetation indices to soil moisture in grasslands and shrublands

The relationships between satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs) and soil moisture are complicated because of the time lag of the vegetation response to soil moisture. In this study, we used a distributed lag regression model to evaluate the lag responses of VIs to soil moisture for grasslands and shrublands at Soil Climate Analysis Network sites in the central and western United States. We examined the relationships between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived VIs and soil moisture measurements. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed significant lag responses to soil moisture. The lag length varies from 8 to 56 days for NDVI and from 16 to 56 days for NDWI. However, the lag response of NDVI and NDWI to soil moisture varied among the sites. Our study suggests that the lag effect needs to be taken into consideration when the VIs are used to estimate soil moisture.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2025

Post-fire recovery of sagebrush-steppe communities is better explained by elevation than climate-derived indicators of resistance and resilience

More landscapes require restoration than can feasibly be treated, and so decision-support tools to prioritize areas for treatment are needed. Moreover, restoration is complicated by the threat of biological invasion in disturbed areas, and so indicators of ecosystem resistance to invasion and resilience to disturbance (hereafter R&R) are important candidate criteria for prioritizing sites for restoration. We asked how climate-based R&R indicators that differed in being either categorical or continuous compared in their ability to explain plant-community recovery after six wildfires that collectively encompassed >750,000 ha and 7803 plot-year observations in sagebrush steppe of the western USA. Unique associations of species that most frequently co-occurred were identified using structural topic modelling. Mixed effect random forests were used to identify the relative importance of various R&R indicators in explaining post-fire plant associations compared with weather, landscape characteristics and treatment history. Simple metrics (elevation, latitude, longitude and year of monitoring) were more informative predictors of post-fire recovery than climate-based R&R indicators. However, small differences in the abundances of perennial grass and especially annual grass associations were predicted by the spring modified Thornthwaite Moisture Index (difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration). Synthesis and applications : The convenience of categorical resistance and resilience indicators has led to their widespread adoption for large-scale planning of restoration. Our results reveal that none of the resistance and resilience indicators assessed effectively explained post-fire restoration better than elevation, although a simple continuous resistance and resilience indicator describing water balance performed better than categorical indicators for explaining small but critical differences in cheatgrass association abundances.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon↗