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Assessing simulated ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park, USA

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur.

Montana↗

Assessing landscape constraints on species abundance: Does the neighborhood limit species response to local habitat conservation programs?

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants.

Nebraska↗

Geodatabase of sites, basin boundaries, and topology rules used to store drainage basin boundaries for the U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Water Science Center

This geodatabase and its component datasets are part of U.S. Geological Survey Digital Data Series 650 and were generated to store basin boundaries for U.S. Geological Survey streamgages and other sites in Colorado. The geodatabase and its components were created by the U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Water Science Center, and are used to derive the numeric drainage areas for Colorado that are input into the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Information System (NWIS) database and also published in the Annual Water Data Report and on NWISWeb. The foundational dataset used to create the basin boundaries in this geodatabase was the National Watershed Boundary Dataset. This geodatabase accompanies a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report (Book 11, Section C, Chapter 6) entitled "Digital Database Architecture and Delineation Methodology for Deriving Drainage Basins, and Comparison of Digitally and Non-Digitally Derived Numeric Drainage Areas." The Techniques and Methods report details the geodatabase architecture, describes the delineation methodology and workflows used to develop these basin boundaries, and compares digitally derived numeric drainage areas in this geodatabase to non-digitally derived areas. 1. COBasins.gdb: This geodatabase contains site locations and basin boundaries for Colorado. It includes a single feature dataset, called BasinsFD, which groups the component feature classes and topology rules. 2. BasinsFD: This feature dataset in the "COBasins.gdb" geodatabase is a digital container that holds the feature classes used to archive site locations and basin boundaries as well as the topology rules that govern spatial relations within and among component feature classes. This feature dataset includes three feature classes: the sites for which basins have been delineated (the "Sites" feature class), basin bounding lines (the "BasinLines" feature class), and polygonal basin areas (the "BasinPolys" feature class). The feature dataset also stores the topology rules (the "BasinsFD_Topology") that constrain the relations within and among component feature classes. The feature dataset also forces any feature classes inside it to have a consistent projection system, which is, in this case, an Albers-Equal-Area projection system. 3. BasinsFD_Topology: This topology contains four persistent topology rules that constrain the spatial relations within the "BasinLines" feature class and between the "BasinLines" feature class and the "BasinPolys" feature classes. 4. Sites: This point feature class contains the digital representations of the site locations for which Colorado Water Science Center basin boundaries have been delineated. This feature class includes point locations for Colorado Water Science Center active (as of September 30, 2009) gages and for other sites. 5. BasinLines: This line feature class contains the perimeters of basins delineated for features in the "Sites" feature class, and it also contains information regarding the sources of lines used for the basin boundaries. 6. BasinPolys: This polygon feature class contains the polygonal basin areas delineated for features in the "Sites" feature class, and it is used to derive the numeric drainage areas published by the Colorado Water Science Center.

Colorado↗

Geologic map of the Patagonia Mountains, Santa Cruz County, Arizona

The Patagonia Mountains contain two large porphyry Cu-Mo systems each with separate associated hypogene and supergene zones, two high-grade Cu-Mo breccia pipes, one large epithermal Ag-Pb-Zn-Mn deposit, and numerous additional areas of base- and precious-metal mineralization all zoned around a Laramide-age composite batholith of intermediate composition. Compilations and new work by Vikre and others (2014) have identified as many as eight separate intrusive phases of the batholith and five separate hydrothermal events spanning at least 16 m.y., in addition to a supergene enrichment event of middle Tertiary age. The geologic map presents a spatial context for this important new information that is intended to support further work in this highly mineralized region. Several spatial databases provide data for the geologic map of the Patagonia Mountains in Arizona. The data can be viewed and queried in ArcGIS 10, a geographic information system; a geologic map is also available in PDF format. All products are available online only.

Arizona↗

Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Bad River Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater-flow model was developed for the Bad River Watershed and surrounding area by using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state groundwater-flow and base flow in streams by using the streamflow routing (SFR) package. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in the Bad River Watershed at the regional scale, including the sources of water to the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Reservation (Reservation) and groundwater/surface-water interactions; (2) provide a quantitative platform for evaluating future impacts to the watershed, which can be used as a starting point for more detailed investigations at the local scale; and (3) identify areas where more data are needed. This report describes the construction and calibration of the groundwater-flow model that was subsequently used for analyzing potential locations for the collection of additional field data, including new observations of water-table elevation for refining the conceptualization and corresponding numerical model of the hydrogeologic system. The study area can be conceptually divided into three primary hydrogeologic environments. The first encompasses the southern uplands with relatively low topographic relief, where groundwater-flow is unconfined and occurs primarily in sandy till and glacial outwash overlying Archean-aged crystalline bedrock. The second includes a transitional area of higher topographic relief and shallow depth to bedrock, in the vicinity of ridges formed by steeply dipping, early-Proterozoic aged metasedimentary units of the Marquette Range Supergroup (including the Ironwood Formation), and late-Proterozoic igneous units associated with the Midcontinent Rift System (MRS). Groundwater-flow in this area likely occurs primarily through connected networks of bedrock fractures that are not well characterized, and also in isolated pockets of Quaternary deposits. The third and last hydrogeologic environment includes lowlands along Lake Superior where a deep sandstone aquifer is confined by thick deposits of clay-rich till. Model input was compiled by using both published and unpublished data. Constant flux boundary conditions for the model perimeter were developed from a regional analytic element model described in appendix 1 of this report. Pumping from 26 high-capacity wells within the model area was included. The SFR stream network was developed from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Version 2) and hydrography from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR). Hydraulic conductivity values were determined for each model cell by interpolation from a network of pilot points, within zones representing major hydrogeologic units. Recharge to the groundwater system was estimated on a cell-by-cell basis by using the Soil Water Balance code (SWB), with gridded daily temperature and precipitation data for the period 1980–2011, and GIS coverages of soil and land-surface conditions. Estimated recharge varies considerably, following spatial patterns in the precipitation and soil hydrologic group inputs. The lowest recharge values occur in the Superior lowlands, whereas the highest values occur in the upland areas, especially those underlain by sandy soils, and in the vicinity of bedrock hills. The model was calibrated to groundwater-levels and base flows obtained from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, and groundwater-levels obtained from the WDNR and Band River Band well-construction databases. Calibration was performed via nonlinear regression by using the parameter-estimation software suite PEST. Groundwater levels and base-flow observations in the calibration dataset were well simulated by the calibrated model, with reasonable values of hydraulic conductivity. The pilot-point parameters that were most constrained by observations during model calibration coincided with the locations containing the most wells (head observations)—especially the population centers of Ashland, Mellen, and other communities along the major highway corridors. Results from the calibrated model illustrate differences in the nature of groundwater-flow within the watershed. In the southern part of the watershed, where bedrock is shallow, groundwater flow paths are relatively short, extending from local recharge areas to adjacent first and second-order streams. In contrast, laterally continuous deposits of clay-rich till covering the Superior Lowlands isolate most smaller streams from the sandstone aquifer, allowing for longer flow paths toward larger streams such as the Bad, Marengo, and White Rivers. Approximately three-quarters of all first-order stream cells were dry in the Superior Lowlands, compared to only half of first-order stream cells in the southern bedrock uplands. The model was used to delineate the groundwatershed for the Bad and Kakagon Rivers. “Groundwatershed” is defined as the area contributing groundwater discharge to one of these streams and their tributaries. The groundwatershed was found to align closely with the surface-watershed, with the most notable exception occurring along the southwestern half of Birch Hill, where surface water drains southwest towards the Potato River, and groundwater flows north and east towards Lake Superior. Similarly, the contributing area of groundwater-flow to the Reservation was delineated. Results indicate the off-Reservation groundwater contributing area to be limited in comparison to the extent of the watershed, extending southward into the highlands underlain by MRS igneous rock units, but not further into the area underlain by the Marquette Range Supergroup. Stable isotope samples were collected from 54 wells within the watershed, to investigate sources of groundwater. Oxygen-18 (δ 18 O) values lower than -13.0 per mil were documented in the sampling, and likely indicate the presence of recharge water from the last glacial period (>9,500 years old) beneath the northern portion of the Reservation, in the vicinity of Odanah, Wisconsin. Finally, a new data-worth analysis of potential new monitoring-well locations was performed by using the model. The relative worth of new measurements was evaluated based on their ability to increase confidence in model predictions of groundwater levels and base flows at 35 locations, under the condition of a proposed open-pit iron mine. Results of the new data-worth analysis, and other inputs and outputs from the Bad River model, are available through an online dynamic web mapping service at ( http://wim.usgs.gov/badriver/ ).

Wisconsin↗

Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

Techniques and Methods↗

Correlation analysis of a ground-water level monitoring network, Miami-Dade County, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey cooperative ground-water monitoring program in Miami-Dade County, Florida, expanded from 4 to 98 continuously recording water-level monitoring wells during the 1939-2001 period. Network design was based on area specific assessments; however, no countywide statistical assessments of network coverage had been performed for the purpose of assessing network redundancy. To aid in the assessment of network redundancy, correlation analyses were performed using S-PLUS 2000 statistical analysis software for daily maximum water-level data from 98 monitoring wells for the November 1, 1973, to October 31, 2000 period. Because of the complexities of the hydrologic, water-supply, and water-management systems in Miami-Dade County and the changes that have occurred to these systems through time, spatial and temporal variations in the degree of correlation had to be considered. To assess temporal variation in correlation, water-level data from each well were subdivided by year and by wet and dry seasons. For each well, year, and season, correlation analyses were performed on the data from those wells that had available data. For selected wells, the resulting correlation coefficients from each year and season were plotted with respect to time. To assess spatial variation in correlation, the coefficients determined from the correlation analysis were averaged. These average wet- and dry-season correlation coefficients were plotted spatially using geographic information system software. Wells with water-level data that correlated with a coefficient of 0.95 or greater were almost always located in relatively close proximity to each other. Five areas were identified where the water-level data from wells within the area remained correlated with that of other wells in the area during the wet and dry seasons. These areas are located in or near the C-1 and C-102 basins (2 wells), in or near the C-6 and C-7 basins (2 wells), near the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority Well Field (2 wells), near the Hialeah-Miami Springs Well Field (6 wells), and near the West Well Field (21 wells). Data from the remaining 65 wells (most of the wells in the network) generally were not correlated with those of other wells during both the wet and dry seasons with an average coefficient of 0.95 or greater for the comparison. Because many of the wells near the West Well Field and some near the Hialeah-Miami Springs Well Field had not been in operation for very long (most having been installed in 1994), the averaged correlation coefficients for these wells were often determined using only a few seasons of data. For the few instances where water-level data were found to be well correlated on average for a lengthy period of record, short-term declines in correlation were often identified. In general, it would be beneficial to compare data for longer periods of record than currently available.

Open-File Report↗

Distribution of lake sturgeon in New York: 11 years of restoration management

Lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) are native within the Lake Ontario drainage basin and listed as threatened by New York State. In 1995 the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) initiated restoration management of lake sturgeon. This management included both protection of extant populations and stocking of uninhabited historic waters with juvenile sturgeon. A list compiled by NYSDEC of observations of lake sturgeon from New York State waters for the period encompassing 1800–2005 was combined with recent observations through 2008 and formatted (Geographic Information System) to allow mapping of sturgeon geographical distribution. Distributions of pre- and post-restoration sturgeon were examined by occurrence and type of observation. Distribution patterns indicated lakes and rivers with current sturgeon presence have increased from five to eight, which was the first-phase goal of the New York Lake Sturgeon Recovery Plan. Lake sturgeon have started to expand into joining water to include the Indian R., Oneida R., Seneca R. and Oswego R. The protected historic populations in the Niagara R., Grasse R., St. Lawrence R., and Lakes Erie and Ontario continue to have low numbers of sturgeon observations. This summary of mapped lake sturgeon distribution information will help in guiding research assessments to waters containing substantial populations. These accessible reaches provide a generous advantage to the released juveniles as they move toward the next goal of restoration, spawning of sturgeon in targeted waters.

New York↗

Water budgets and groundwater volumes for abandoned underground mines in the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield, Schuylkill, Columbia, and Northumberland Counties, Pennsylvania: Preliminary estimates with identification of data needs

This report, prepared in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PaDEP), the Eastern Pennsylvania Coalition for Abandoned Mine Reclamation, and the Dauphin County Conservation District, provides estimates of water budgets and groundwater volumes stored in abandoned underground mines in the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield, which encompasses an area of 120 square miles in eastern Pennsylvania. The estimates are based on preliminary simulations using a groundwater-flow model and an associated geographic information system that integrates data on the mining features, hydrogeology, and streamflow in the study area. The Mahanoy and Shamokin Creek Basins were the focus of the study because these basins exhibit extensive hydrologic effects and water-quality degradation from the abandoned mines in their headwaters in the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield. Proposed groundwater withdrawals from the flooded parts of the mines and stream-channel modifications in selected areas have the potential for altering the distribution of groundwater and the interaction between the groundwater and streams in the area. Preliminary three-dimensional, steady-state simulations of groundwater flow by the use of MODFLOW are presented to summarize information on the exchange of groundwater among adjacent mines and to help guide the management of ongoing data collection, reclamation activities, and water-use planning. The conceptual model includes high-permeability mine voids that are connected vertically and horizontally within multicolliery units (MCUs). MCUs were identified on the basis of mine maps, locations of mine discharges, and groundwater levels in the mines measured by PaDEP. The locations and integrity of mine barriers were determined from mine maps and groundwater levels. The permeability of intact barriers is low, reflecting the hydraulic characteristics of unmined host rock and coal. A steady-state model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and stream base flow, the latter at many locations composed primarily of discharge from mines. Automatic parameter estimation used MODFLOW-2000 with manual adjustments to constrain parameter values to realistic ranges. The calibrated model supports the conceptual model of high-permeability MCUs separated by low-permeability barriers and streamflow losses and gains associated with mine infiltration and discharge. The simulated groundwater levels illustrate low groundwater gradients within an MCU and abrupt changes in water levels between MCUs. The preliminary model results indicate that the primary result of increased pumping from the mine would be reduced discharge from the mine to streams near the pumping wells. The intact barriers limit the spatial extent of mine dewatering. Considering the simulated groundwater levels, depth of mining, and assumed bulk porosity of 11 or 40 percent for the mined seams, the water volume in storage in the mines of the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield was estimated to range from 60 to 220 billion gallons, respectively. Details of the groundwater-level distribution and the rates of some mine discharges are not simulated well using the preliminary model. Use of the model results should be limited to evaluation of the conceptual model and its simulation using porous-media flow methods, overall water budgets for the Western Middle Anthracite Coalfield, and approximate storage volumes. Model results should not be considered accurate for detailed simulation of flow within a single MCU or individual flooded mine. Although improvements in the model calibration were possible by introducing spatial variability in permeability parameters and adjusting barrier properties, more detailed parameterizations have increased uncertainty because of the limited data set. The preliminary identification of data needs includes continuous streamflow, mine discharge rate, and groundwater levels in the mines and adjacent areas. Data collected whe

Pennsylvania↗

Modeled sulfate concentrations in North Dakota streams, 1993-2008, based on spatial basin characteristics

Sulfate concentration data collected from North Dakota streams during recent (1993–2008) years indicates generally higher sulfate concentrations across much of the State compared to concentrations during earlier years. The higher sulfate concentrations have been attributed in other studies to wetter climatic conditions, associated increases in contributing drainage areas, and rising water tables. The State’s current (2013) stream classification system, which includes a standard for 30-day average sulfate concentration, is based on earlier data and thus may not reflect natural conditions for more recent years. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health and the North Dakota State Water Commission, completed a study to evaluate the relation of maximum seasonal (30-day moving average) sulfate concentrations during 1993–2008 to characteristics of the contributing basins to model expected naturally-occurring sulfate concentrations in North Dakota streams. Sulfate concentration data for 75 stream sampling sites in North Dakota were analyzed for this study. A spatial analysis was conducted with digital data using a Geographic Information System to obtain selected basin characteristics, which were in turn used as explanatory variables in a regression analysis to model the maximum seasonal (30-day moving average) sulfate concentration. Characteristics used in the regression analysis included mean annual precipitation, mean percent soil clay content, and mean percent saturation overland flow. Modeled sulfate concentrations generally were highest (greater than 750 milligrams per liter) in basins in western North Dakota and lowest (less than 250 milligrams per liter) in basins in the upper Sheyenne River and upper James River. Area-weighted means for the basin characteristics also were computed for 10-digit and 8-digit hydrologic units for streams in North Dakota and modeled sulfate concentrations were computed from the characteristics. The resulting distribution of modeled sulfate concentrations was similar to the distribution of estimates for the 12-digit hydrologic units, but less variable because the basin characteristics were averaged over larger areas.

North Dakota↗

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Deposition, erosion, and bathymetric change in South San Francisco Bay: 1858-1983

Since the California Gold Rush of 1849, sediment deposition, erosion, and the bathymetry of South San Francisco Bay have been altered by both natural processes and human activities. Historical hydrographic surveys can be used to assess how this system has evolved over the past 150 years. The National Ocean Service (NOS) (formerly the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey (USCGS), collected five hydrographic surveys of South San Francisco Bay from 1858 to 1983. Analysis of these surveys enables us to reconstruct the surface of the bay floor for each time period and quantify spatial and temporal changes in deposition, erosion, and bathymetry. The creation of accurate bathymetric models involves many steps. Sounding data was obtained from the original USCGS and NOS hydrographic sheets and were supplemented with hand drawn depth contours. Shorelines and marsh areas were obtained from topographic sheets. The digitized soundings and shorelines were entered into a Geographic Information System (GIS), and georeferenced to a common horizontal datum. Using surface modeling software, bathymetric grids with a horizontal resolution of 50 m were developed for each of the five hydrographic surveys. Prior to conducting analyses of sediment deposition and erosion, we converted all of the grids to a common vertical datum and made adjustments to correct for land subsidence that occurred from 1934 to 1967. Deposition and erosion that occurred during consecutive periods was then computed by differencing the corrected grids. From these maps of deposition and erosion, we calculated volumes and rates of net sediment change in the bay. South San Francisco Bay has lost approximately 90 x 106 m3 of sediment from 1858 to 1983; however within this timeframe there have been periods of both deposition and erosion. During the most recent period, from 1956 to 1983, sediment loss approached 3 x 106 m3/yr. One of the most striking changes that occurred from 1858 to 1983 was the conversion of more than 80% of the tidal marsh to salt ponds, agricultural, and urban areas. In addition, there has been a decline of approximately 40% in intertidal mud flat area. Restoration of these features will require a detailed understanding of the morphology and sediment sources of this complex system.

California↗

Estimated 2008 groundwater potentiometric surface and predevelopment to 2008 water-level change in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque area, central New Mexico

The water-supply requirements of the Albuquerque metropolitan area of central New Mexico have historically been met almost exclusively by groundwater withdrawal from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. Previous studies have indicated that the large quantity of groundwater withdrawal relative to recharge has resulted in water-level declines in the aquifer system throughout the metropolitan area. Analysis of the magnitude and pattern of water-level change can help improve understanding of how the groundwater system responds to withdrawals and variations in the management of the water supply and can support water-management agencies' efforts to minimize future water-level declines and improve sustainability. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, presents the estimated groundwater potentiometric surface during winter (from December to March) of the 2008 water year and the estimated changes in water levels between predevelopment and water year 2008 for the production zone of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque and surrounding metropolitan and military areas. Hydrographs from selected wells are included to provide details of historical water-level changes. In general, water-level measurements used for this report were measured in small-diameter observation wells screened over short intervals and were considered to best represent the potentiometric head in the production zone-the interval of the aquifer, about 300 feet below land surface to 1,100 feet or more below land surface, in which production wells generally are screened. Water-level measurements were collected by various local and Federal agencies. The 2008 water year potentiometric surface map was created in a geographic information system, and the change in water-level elevation from predevelopment to water year 2008 was calculated. The 2008 water-level contours indicate that the general direction of groundwater flow is from the Rio Grande towards clusters of production wells in the east, north, and west. Water-level changes from predevelopment to 2008 are variable across the area. Hydrographs from piezometers on the east side of the river generally indicate a trend of decline in the annual highest water level through most of the period of record. Hydrographs from piezometers in the valley near the river and on the west side of the river indicate spatial variability in water-level trends.

New Mexico↗

Analysis of floods, including the tropical storm Irene inundation, of the Ottauquechee River in Woodstock, Bridgewater, and Killington and of Reservoir Brook in Bridgewater and Plymouth, Vermont

Digital flood-inundation maps were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New York District for a 25-mile reach of the Ottauquechee River and a 2-mile reach of Reservoir Brook in Vermont. The reach of the Ottauquechee River that was studied extends from River Road Bridge in Killington, Vt., to the Taftsville Dam in the village of Taftsville, in the town of Woodstock, Vt., and the reach of Reservoir Brook extends from a location downstream from the Woodward Reservoir in Plymouth, Vt., to its confluence with the Ottauquechee River in Bridgewater, Vt. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood (also referred to as the 100-year flood) and the peak of the tropical storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011, which was greater than the 0.2-percent AEP flood (also referred to as the 500-year flood), as referenced to the USGS Ottauquechee River near West Bridgewater, Vt. streamgage (station 01150900). In addition to the two digital flood inundation maps, flood profiles were created that depict the study reach flood elevation of tropical storm Irene of August 2011 and the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEP floods, also known as the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods, respectively. The 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood discharges were determined using annual peak flow data from the USGS Ottauquechee River near West Bridgewater, Vt. streamgage (station 01150900). Flood profiles were computed for the Ottauquechee River and Reservoir Brook by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using documented high-water marks of the peak of the tropical storm Irene flood of August 2011 as well as stage discharge data as determined for USGS Ottauquechee River near West Bridgewater, Vt. streamgage (station 01150900). The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a digital elevation model within a geographic information system to delineate the areas flooded during tropical storm Irene and for the 1-percent AEP water-surface profile. The digital elevation model data were derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data obtained for a 3,281-foot (1,000-meter) corridor along the Ottauquechee River study reach and were augmented with 33-foot (10- meter) contour interval data in the modeled flood-inundation areas outside the lidar corridor. The 33-foot (10-meter) contour interval USGS 15-minute quadrangle topographic digital raster graphics map used to augment lidar data was produced at a scale of 1:24,000. The digital flood inundation maps and flood profiles along with information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages on the Internet provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Vermont↗

Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean. First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem. Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects. Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗

Inventory of Well Yields in Avery and Watauga Counties, North Carolina

More than 1,500 well records were compiled for Avery and Watauga Counties, North Carolina, as part of a study of ground-water resources. Wells in this area of the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province produce water from the fractured-bedrock aquifer. Prior to this study, only about 132 wells were included in the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Information System, as a result of a study conducted during the late 1960s. The large number of additional well records provide a better data set to evaluate the ground-water resources. From the more recent well inventory conducted in 2007, the range of well yields in these two counties is from 0 to 400 gallons per minute. Total depth of the wells ranged from 20 to 1,204 feet below land surface, and depth to primary fracture zones ranged from 25 to 1,000 feet below land surface. In many rural areas of North Carolina (NC), ground water is the sole resource for drinking water. With increasing population, many more wells are being drilled, and information on this important resource needs to be updated. In February 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a study in cooperation with the High Country Council of Governments, through a grant received by the North Carolina Rural Economic Development Center, to better quantify available ground-water resources in two rural counties (Avery and Watauga) in the northern North Carolina mountains. Many small towns in Avery and Watauga counties are dependent on wells from local fractured-bedrock aquifers, and local officials are concerned about the sustainability of the resource for support of economic development and population growth. In 2005, all residents in Avery County were served by ground-water resources, while 37 percent of the population in Watauga County was served by ground water (D.G. Smith, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007).

North Carolina↗

Remote sensing characterization of the Animas River watershed, southwestern Colorado, by AVIRIS imaging spectroscopy

Visible-wavelength and near-infrared image cubes of the Animas River watershed in southwestern Colorado have been acquired by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Airborne Visible and InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) instrument and processed using the U.S. Geological Survey Tetracorder v3.6a2 implementation. The Tetracorder expert system utilizes a spectral reference library containing more than 400 laboratory and field spectra of end-member minerals, mineral mixtures, vegetation, manmade materials, atmospheric gases, and additional substances to generate maps of mineralogy, vegetation, snow, and other material distributions. Major iron-bearing, clay, mica, carbonate, sulfate, and other minerals were identified, among which are several minerals associated with acid rock drainage, including pyrite, jarosite, alunite, and goethite. Distributions of minerals such as calcite and chlorite indicate a relationship between acid-neutralizing assemblages and stream geochemistry within the watershed. Images denoting material distributions throughout the watershed have been orthorectified against digital terrain models to produce georeferenced image files suitable for inclusion in Geographic Information System databases. Results of this study are of use to land managers, stakeholders, and researchers interested in understanding a number of characteristics of the Animas River watershed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Mapping the thermal landscape of the Upper Mississippi River

Temperature has a fundamental influence on physical, chemical and biological processing in aquatic ecosystems. River temperatures respond to a diverse array of drivers including air temperature, streamflow, and thermal inputs, but the physical template has been shown to play a significant role in structuring spatial and temporal variation in water temperature. How these factors interact to affect water temperature in complex floodplain river habitats such as those present in the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is not well-studied. We used a combination of airborne thermal imagery and continuous temperature loggers deployed across aquatic area types to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in water temperature in Navigation Pool 8 during the summer and fall of 2017. The mid-wave infrared thermal camera available for this study is not commonly used for thermal imagery acquisition over water, so we discuss accommodations that were made to account for potential interferences and describe considerations for future users interested in using the technology. We quantified thermal metrics from imagery and continuous loggers (e.g., mean, coefficient of variation, range) and compared those to hydrogeomorphic variability across aquatic areas using a Geographic Information System (GIS) dataset. Our findings showed that both temporal and spatial temperature patterns were linked to variation in depth and connectivity of aquatic areas across the pool. Despite some of the technical challenges associated with acquiring this imagery, the method shows promise for characterizing spatial variation in surface temperatures in the UMRS associated with complex physical features such as habitat rehabilitation and enhancement projects.

Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗