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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2018

Mangrove forests in a rapidly changing world: Global change impacts and conservation opportunities along the Gulf of Mexico coast

Mangrove forests are highly-productive intertidal wetlands that support many ecosystem goods and services. In addition to providing fish and wildlife habitat, mangrove forests improve water quality, provide seafood, reduce coastal erosion, supply forest products, support coastal food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration. Despite their tremendous societal value, mangrove forests are threatened by many aspects of global change. Here, we examine the effects of global change on mangrove forests along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which is a valuable region for advancing understanding of global change impacts because the region spans multiple ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients that are representative of other mangrove transition zones across the world. We consider the historical and anticipated future responses of mangrove forests to the following aspects of global change: temperature change, precipitation change, accelerated sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, eutrophication, invasive non-native species, and land use change. For each global change factor, we provide an initial global perspective but focus primarily on the three countries that border the Gulf of Mexico: United States, Mexico, and Cuba. The interactive effects of global change can have large ecological consequences, and we provide examples that highlight their importance. While some interactions between global change drivers can lead to mangrove mortality and loss, others can lead to mangrove expansion at the expense of other ecosystems. Finally, we discuss strategies for using restoration and conservation to maximize the adaptive capacity of mangrove forests to global change. To ensure that the ecosystem goods and services provided by mangrove forests continue to be available for future generations, there is a pressing need to better protect, manage, and restore mangrove forests as well as the adjacent ecosystems that provide opportunities for adaptation in response to global change.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗
USGS2024

Projected changes in mangrove distribution and vegetation structure under climate change in the southeastern United States

Aim The climate change-induced transition from grass-dominated marshes to woody-plant-dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of future changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structural properties due to warming winters. Location Southeastern United States. Time Period Recent (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100). Major Taxa Studied Coastal wetland vegetation. Methods We estimated changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structure using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981–2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071–2100. We quantified potential changes in mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenarios (SSPs; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively. Results Our analyses indicate that mangrove presence and relative abundance will dramatically increase in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States, particularly under the high emissions scenario. Because of the higher stature of mangroves relative to salt marsh vegetation, this expansion will cause a transformative change in coastal wetland vegetation height and aboveground biomass in many areas. However, along the arid southern Texas coast, low precipitation and high salinities are expected to constrain mangrove expansion and growth. Main Conclusions Our results show where and to what extent climate change, in the form of winter temperature warming, is projected to enable the transition from shorter, grass-dominated salt marshes to taller, woody plant-dominated mangrove forests in the southeastern United States, with consequent impacts on ecosystem goods and services.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2017

Development of a multimetric index for integrated assessment of salt marsh ecosystem condition

Tools for assessing and communicating salt marsh condition are essential to guide decisions aimed at maintaining or restoring ecosystem integrity and services. Multimetric indices (MMIs) are increasingly used to provide integrated assessments of ecosystem condition. We employed a theory-based approach that considers the multivariate relationship of metrics with human disturbance to construct a salt marsh MMI for five National Parks in the northeastern USA. We quantified the degree of human disturbance for each marsh using the first principal component score from a principal components analysis of physical, chemical, and land use stressors. We then applied a metric selection algorithm to different combinations of about 45 vegetation and nekton metrics (e.g., species abundance, species richness, and ecological and functional classifications) derived from multi-year monitoring data. While MMIs derived from nekton or vegetation metrics alone were strongly correlated with human disturbance ( r values from −0.80 to −0.93), an MMI derived from both vegetation and nekton metrics yielded an exceptionally strong correlation with disturbance ( r = −0.96). Individual MMIs included from one to five metrics. The metric-assembly algorithm yielded parsimonious MMIs that exhibit the greatest possible correlations with disturbance in a way that is objective, efficient, and reproducible.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2020

Research is needed to inform environmental management of hydrothermally inactive and extinct polymetallic sulfide (PMS) deposits

Polymetallic sulfide (PMS) deposits produced at hydrothermal vents in the deep sea are of potential interest to miners. Hydrothermally active sulfide ecosystems are valued for the extraordinary chemosynthetic communities that they support. Many countries, including Canada, Portugal, and the United States, protect vent ecosystems in their Exclusive Economic Zones. When hydrothermal activity ceases temporarily (dormancy) or permanently (extinction), the habitat and associated ecosystem change dramatically. Until recently, so-called “inactive sulfide” habitats, either dormant or extinct, received little attention from biologists. However, the need for environmental management of deep-sea mining places new imperatives for building scientific understanding of the structure and function of inactive PMS deposits. This paper calls for actions of the scientific community and the emergent seabed mining industry to i) undertake fundamental ecological descriptions and study of ecosystem functions and services associated with hydrothermally inactive PMS deposits, ii) evaluate potential environmental risks to ecosystems of inactive PMS deposits through research, and iii) identify environmental management needs that may enable mining of inactive PMS deposits. Mining of some extinct PMS deposits may have reduced environmental risk compared to other seabed mining activities, but this must be validated through scientific research on a case-by-case basis.

Marine Policy↗
USGS2015

Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche–efficiency

The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche–efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche–efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species’ inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2002

Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater

Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life—and these are costly, if not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the “sinks” into which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

The Islands of Oceania – Political geography, biogeography, and terrestrial ecosystems

Humans are dependent upon ecosystems for the production of goods and services necessary for their well-being (Daily, 1997). As the service provider units (SPUs) for these benefits of nature (Anderson et al., 2015), ecosystems need to be managed in a way that maximizes their persistence on the planet. Part of that management effort includes knowing a) what the ecosystem types are, b) where they are located on the landscape and in the seascape, and c) what condition they are in. Mapping of ecosystem occurrences as the SPUs for ecosystems goods and services is therefore an important element of ecosystem accounting, an inherently spatial activity. Maps are also needed of the ecosystem accounting areas within which the accounting is conducted. Standardized maps of ecosystem accounting areas and terrestrial ecosystem SPUs have not previously been available for many islands of the Oceania region. We describe the availability of new island shorelines and ecosystems data for Oceania herein, and encourage consideration and evaluation of the data for ecosystem accounting and other applications.

Ecosystem Services↗
USGS2013

Ecological thresholds as a basis for defining management triggers for National Park Service vital signs: case studies for dryland ecosystems

Threshold concepts are used in research and management of ecological systems to describe and interpret abrupt and persistent reorganization of ecosystem properties (Walker and Meyers, 2004; Groffman and others, 2006). Abrupt change, referred to as a threshold crossing, and the progression of reorganization can be triggered by one or more interactive disturbances such as land-use activities and climatic events (Paine and others, 1998). Threshold crossings occur when feedback mechanisms that typically absorb forces of change are replaced with those that promote development of alternative equilibria or states (Suding and others, 2004; Walker and Meyers, 2004; Briske and others, 2008). The alternative states that emerge from a threshold crossing vary and often exhibit reduced ecological integrity and value in terms of management goals relative to the original or reference system. Alternative stable states with some limited residual properties of the original system may develop along the progression after a crossing; an eventual outcome may be the complete loss of pre-threshold properties of the original ecosystem. Reverting to the more desirable reference state through ecological restoration becomes increasingly difficult and expensive along the progression gradient and may eventually become impossible. Ecological threshold concepts have been applied as a heuristic framework and to aid in the management of rangelands (Bestelmeyer, 2006; Briske and others, 2006, 2008), aquatic (Scheffer and others, 1993; Rapport and Whitford 1999), riparian (Stringham and others, 2001; Scott and others, 2005), and forested ecosystems (Allen and others, 2002; Digiovinazzo and others, 2010). These concepts are also topical in ecological restoration (Hobbs and Norton 1996; Whisenant 1999; Suding and others, 2004; King and Hobbs, 2006) and ecosystem sustainability (Herrick, 2000; Chapin and others, 1996; Davenport and others, 1998). Achieving conservation management goals requires the protection of resources within the range of desired conditions (Cook and others, 2010). The goal of conservation management for natural resources in the U.S. National Park System is to maintain native species and habitat unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations. Achieving this goal requires, in part, early detection of system change and timely implementation of remediation. The recent National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring program (NPS I&M) was established to provide early warning of declining ecosystem conditions relative to a desired native or reference system (Fancy and others, 2009). To be an effective tool for resource protection, monitoring must be designed to alert managers of impending thresholds so that preventive actions can be taken. This requires an understanding of the ecosystem attributes and processes associated with threshold-type behavior; how these attributes and processes become degraded; and how risks of degradation vary among ecosystems and in relation to environmental factors such as soil properties, climatic conditions, and exposure to stressors. In general, the utility of the threshold concept for long-term monitoring depends on the ability of scientists and managers to detect, predict, and prevent the occurrence of threshold crossings associated with persistent, undesirable shifts among ecosystem states (Briske and others, 2006). Because of the scientific challenges associated with understanding these factors, the application of threshold concepts to monitoring designs has been very limited to date (Groffman and others, 2006). As a case in point, the monitoring efforts across the 32 NPS I&M networks were largely designed with the knowledge that they would not be used to their full potential until the development of a systematic method for understanding threshold dynamics and methods for estimating key attributes of threshold crossings. This report describes and demonstrates a generalized approach that we implemented to formalize understanding and estimating of threshold dynamics for terrestrial dryland ecosystems in national parks of the Colorado Plateau. We provide a structured approach to identify and describe degradation processes associated with threshold behavior and to estimate indicator levels that characterize the point at which a threshold crossing has occurred or is imminent (tipping points) or points where investigative or preventive management action should be triggered (assessment points). We illustrate this method for several case studies in national parks included in the Northern and Southern Colorado Plateau NPS I&M networks, where historical livestock grazing, climatic change, and invasive species are key agents of change. The approaches developed in these case studies are intended to enhance the design, effectiveness, and management-relevance of monitoring efforts in support of conservation management in dryland systems. They specifically enhance National Park Service (NPS) capacity for protecting park resources on the Colorado Plateau but have applicability to monitoring and conservation management of dryland ecosystems worldwide.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2023

Mapping habitats and shorelines pre-, during, and post-restoration on Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island, Louisiana, 2012–2020

Barrier islands and headlands provide ecological services that are integral to economic and environmental interests. Adaptive management may help in ensuring their resilience and the continued provision of ecosystems goods and services over time. The dynamic nature of these environments makes evaluating the impacts from restoration and extreme events an important part of adaptively managing these resources.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Ocean acidification in the Gulf of Mexico: Drivers, impacts, and unknowns

Ocean acidification (OA) has resulted in global-scale changes in ocean chemistry, which can disturb marine organisms and ecosystems. Despite its extensively populated coastline, many marine-dependent communities, and valuable economies, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) remains a relatively understudied region with respect to acidification. In general, the warm waters of the GOM are better buffered from acidification compared to higher latitude seas, yet long-term acidification has been documented in several GOM regions. OA within the GOM is recognized as spatially variable, particularly within the coastal zone where numerous physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to carbonate chemistry dynamics. The historical progression of OA within the entire GOM is difficult to assess because only a few dedicated long-term monitoring sites have recently been established, and full-water column observations are limited. However, environmental drivers on smaller scales that affect GOM acidification were found to include freshwater, nutrient, and carbonate discharge from large rivers; ocean warming, circulation and residence times; and episodic extreme weather events. GOM marine ecosystems provide essential services, including coastline protection and carbon dioxide removal, and habitats for many marine species that are economically and ecologically important. However, organismal and ecosystem responses to OA are not well constrained for the GOM due to a lack of studies examining the specific effects of OA on regionally relevant species under contemporary and projected conditions. Tackling the vast number of remaining scientific unknowns in this region can be best coordinated through regional capacity networks, such as the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN), working to achieve a system-wide understanding of Gulf OA and its impacts. Here we synthesize the current peer-reviewed literature on GOM acidification across the ocean-estuarine continuum and identify critical knowledge, research, and monitoring gaps that require future attention.

Progress in Oceanography↗
USGS2009

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications . The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2020

Co-producing knowledge: The Integrated Ecosystem Model for resource management in Arctic Alaska

Assessments of climate-change effects on ecosystem processes and services in high-latitude regions are hindered by a lack of decision-support tools capable of forecasting possible future landscapes. We describe a collaborative effort to develop and apply the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and northwestern Canada to explore how climate change influences interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost integrity, hydrology, and vegetation, and how these dynamics in turn influence resource management decisions. This process emphasizes co-production of knowledge among decision makers, scientists, major funders, partners, and stakeholders. We highlight research findings based on IEM applications in Arctic Alaska, as well as successes and challenges of the co-production process. The overall framework and lessons from our work with the IEM are relevant to other collaborative efforts outside the Arctic that aim to develop a decision-support tool or an undertaking of equivalent scope.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Development and implementation of an empirical habitat change model and decision support tool for estuarine ecosystems

Widespread land use change in coastal ecosystems has led to a decline in the amount of habitat available for fish and wildlife, lower production of ecosystem goods and services, and loss of recreational and aesthetic value. This has prompted global efforts to restore the natural hydrologic regimes of developed shorelines, especially resource-rich estuaries, but the resilience of these restored ecosystems in the face of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) remains uncertain. We implemented a Mo nitoring-based S imulation of A ccretion i n C oastal E s tuaries (MOSAICS) in R statistical software to address uncertainty in the resilience of modified estuarine habitats, using the Nisqually River Delta in the Pacific Northwest USA as a case study. MOSAICS is a spatially explicit model with a numerical foundation that uses empirical monitoring datasets to forecast habitat change in response to rising tidal levels. Because it accounts for the crucial ecomorphodynamic feedbacks between tidal inundation, vegetative growth, and sediment accretion, MOSAICS can be used to determine whether alternative management scenarios, such as enhanced sediment inputs, will bolster estuarine resilience to SLR. Under moderate SLR (0.62 m), the model predicted that a two-fold increase in mean daily suspended sediment during the rainy season was sufficient to maintain Nisqually’s emergent marshes through 2100, but under high SLR (1.35 m) MOSAICS indicated that greater sediment additions would be necessary to prevent submergence. A comparison between a restored marsh with subsided and high-elevation areas and a relict marsh demonstrated that the subsided restoration area was highly susceptible to SLR. Findings from the MOSAICS model highlight the importance of a site’s initial elevation, capacity for producing above and belowground biomass, and suspended sediment availability when considering management actions in estuaries and other coastal ecosystems.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2025

Anthropogenic activities have greatly altered mangroves over the last hundred years

Mangroves not only provide ecosystem and cultural services but also contribute to the mitigation of global warming. Mangrove dynamics and their environmental responses as re-constructed from the past can inform current mangrove conservation and restoration. However, our understanding of mangrove dynamics over the past century and the impact of human activities on these ecosystems remains limited. Using the quantified mangrove-derived organic carbon (MOC) contributions of seven sediment cores, we reconstructed the historical mangrove dynamics in Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea in tropical China dating back to 1900. The results indicated that the natural undisturbed mangroves in Yingluo Bay flourished in response to rising temperatures. In contrast, the significantly human-disturbed mangroves in Maowei Sea experienced a marked decline. Although both areas share similar natural conditions, intense anthropogenic disturbance reversed the natural potential for mangrove growth in the Maowei Sea. To explore the global prevalence of this phenomenon, we compiled data on mangrove pollen, δ 13 C org , MOC, and mangrove area change from over 40 sites/regions worldwide, and re-constructed the natural and human-affected mangrove dynamics over the past century. Our findings indicated that, owing to the globally rising temperatures, natural undisturbed mangroves have gradually expanded as progressively more healthy forests, while human-disturbed mangroves exhibited three patterns: (1) continuous degradation, (2) flourishing-degradation, and (3) degradation-regeneration. Anthropogenic activities, such as seawall construction, aquaculture activity, agricultural expansion, logging, and urbanization have significantly reversed the natural health of mangroves such that any conservation and restoration strategy used for mangroves globally could inherently consider anthropogenic factors along with natural environmental change for better outcomes.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2014

Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the region-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) How vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) What is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We developed simple freshwater availability-based models to predict the relative abundance (i.e., coverage) of tidal wetland foundation plant species using climate data (1970-2000), estuarine freshwater inflow-focused data, and coastal wetland habitat data. Our results identify regional ecological thresholds and nonlinear relationships between measures of freshwater availability and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands. In drier coastal zones, relatively small changes in rainfall could produce comparatively large landscape-scale changes in foundation plant species abundance which would affect some ecosystem good and services. Whereas a drier future would result in a decrease in the coverage of foundation plant species, a wetter future would result in an increase in foundation plant species coverage. In many ways, the freshwater-dependent coastal wetland ecological transitions we observed are analogous to those present in dryland terrestrial ecosystems.

Gulf Of Mexico↗
USGS2015

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗