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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Climatic/Hydrologic Oscillations since 155,000 yr B.P. at Owens Lake, California, Reflected in Abundance and Stable Isotope Composition of Sediment Carbonate

Sediment grain size, carbonate content, and stable isotopes in 70-cm-long (∼1500-yr) channel samples from Owens Lake core OL-92 record many oscillations representing climate change in the eastern Sierra Nevada region since 155,000 yr B.P. To first order, the records match well the marine δ 18 O record. At Owens Lake, however, the last interglaciation appears to span the entire period from 120,000 to 50,000 yr B.P., according to our chronology, and was punctuated by numerous short periods of wetter conditions during an otherwise dry climate. Sediment proxies reveal that the apparent timing of glacial–interglacial transitions, notably the penultimate one, is proxy-dependent. In the grain-size and carbonate-content records this transition is abrupt and occurs at ∼120,000 yr B.P. In contrast, in the isotopic records the transition is gradual and occurs between 145,000 and 120,000 yr B.P. Differences in timing of the transition are attributed to variable responses by proxies to climate change.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2002

An ENSO predictor of dust emission in the southwestern United States

Here we show that there is a significant relationship between Nino 3.4 ENSO anomaly (Dec–Jan average) and precipitation in the southwestern United States. This contributes to increased frequency of dust events in the years following strong La Niña and El Niño years. High probabilities (60%–100%) exist for an elevated frequency of dust events in years when the ENSO anomaly, annual precipitation, or annual P/PE falls below the 10th percentile. This analysis provides a quantitative framework in which to evaluate the expected effects of climate change on this and other arid regions.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico↗

USGS2010

Global climate changes recorded in coastal wetland sediments: Empirical observations linked to theoretical predictions

Whether coastal areas are experiencing, and responding to, an accelerated rate of global sea-level rise (GSLR) is critically important for the ∼2 billion people living near Earth's oceans. Accretion rates from a suite of physiographically diverse coastal wetlands surrounding Long Island, NY accelerated during the 20th century at 2.3 ± 0.2 × 10 −2 mm yr −2 , which is comparable to reported rates of GSLR acceleration and global temperature changes. Wetlands varied in tidal range, salinity and geomorphic setting, and were located in embayments with limited human impacts in a region with limited and constant rates of subsidence. From geochronologies with temporal resolutions of 2–5 yr, we constructed new composite histories of sediment accretion and mineral deposition. Wetland dynamics are consistent with predictions from sedimentology and a numerical model of ecogeomorphic response, suggesting that these systems, and likely others worldwide, are responding to accelerated GSLR and related climatic changes.

New York↗

USGS2021

Seasonal precipitation and soil moisture relationships across forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States

Precipitation [P: mm] controls forest and woodland dynamics in the southwestern United States (SWUS) by altering soil moisture [ θ : mm 3 mm −3 ] availability, but the influence of P on θ is complex, varying across space and time. We evaluated seasonal P and θ relationships at shallow (0‐20 cm) and intermediate (50 cm) soil depths for 9 semiarid forest and woodland sites (56 total years), which comprised 3 elevation gradients in the SWUS. We developed time‐varying definitions of winter (snow accumulation), spring (moisture recharge), and summer (moisture deficit), and determined how these sites exhibited similar P influence on θ across depths in the soil profile, between seasons, and in seasons with above‐ and below‐average P. Higher elevation sites ( > 2800 m) experienced greater winter P, longer springs, and shorter summers compared to lower elevation sites ( < 2500 m). Seasons with above‐ and below‐average P reduced elevation‐associated differences. θ at 0‐20 cm was generally decoupled from θ at 50 cm in seasons with average and below‐average P, imparted by differences in spring and summer rainfall versus winter snowfall. Notably, across‐season influence of θ (e.g. a season's similarity to subsequent seasons) was high when the first season experienced above‐ or below‐average P, and the subsequent season experienced average P, illustrating an important temporal connection initiated by wet and dry conditions. These results illustrate similarities in P‐ θ relationships across widely differing ecosystems in the SWUS, and elucidate how these relationships may be altered in a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences↗

USGS2022

The influence of drying on the aeolian transport of river-sourced sand

Transgression and regression of water levels (stages) have impacted the evolution of aeolian landforms and sedimentary deposits throughout geologic history. We studied this phenomenon over a five-day period of reduced flow on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, USA, in March 2021. These transient low flows exposed river-channel sand deposits to the air, causing progressive desiccation (drying) and thereby making these deposits susceptible to aeolian transport. We measured aeolian threshold friction velocities ( u *t ) for sand saltation and PM10 dust emissions, as well as other characteristics, on a subaerially exposed sandbar and downwind aeolian dunefield during each day of the low river flow. The sandbar transitioned from supply-limited to transport-limited aeolian sediment transport conditions during the regression in river water stage. A possible tipping point between the two transport conditions occurred approximately 48 hours after the drop in river flow. The empirically measured u *t decreased as the sandbar sediment dried with increased subaerial exposure time. Theoretical estimates and empirical measurements of u *t corresponded closely on the aeolian dunefield and on the sandbar when it was drier during the third and fourth day of the experiment. Eighty-seven percent of the variability in u *t was explained by empirical models that provide practical estimates of aeolian transport potential of subaerial river sediment deposits using monitoring data that are commonly available in this and other river systems. The work provides theoretical insight into the response of aeolian processes to sediment supply changes driven by periods of anthropogenic activity, drought, and climate change.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Examining the complex relations between climate and streamflow in the mid-atlantic region of the United States

We explored the complex relations between climate and streamflow in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. In 124 watersheds across this region, we quantified spatial and temporal variation in air temperature (AT), precipitation (P), and streamflow (Q) from 1981 through 2020. Upward directional trends in monthly values of AT, P, and Q indicated an increase of 0.27–1.9 degrees Celsius, 0.12–1.9 millimeters day −1 , and 0.01–7.1 cubic meters s −1 day −1 , respectively, over the 40-year period. Comparison of the first 20 years to the last 20 years of data indicated an acceleration in the trend slopes in AT, P, and Q. Changes also were observed in temporal trends in the center of volume (CV) of both P and Q, which generally occurred later in the year; the 7-day mean low flow increased, and the annual day of occurrence of the 7-day mean low flow occurred earlier in the year. Principal components analysis revealed differences in P, Q, CVP, and CVQ trends in watersheds with median elevations greater than and less than 400 meters, as well as by latitude. A seasonal analysis revealed that P increased throughout the study area in spring, summer, and fall but decreased in winter. AT, P, and Q have broadly increased across the region over the 40-year period, and the temporal, spatial, and seasonal changes in P have affected Q. Results highlight the strong couplings between climatic variability and watershed responses.

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2013

Thinning increases climatic resilience of red pine

Forest management techniques such as intermediate stand-tending practices (e.g., thinning) can promote climatic resiliency in forest stands by moderating tree competition. Residual trees gain increased access to environmental resources (i.e., soil moisture, light), which in turn has the potential to buffer trees from stressful climatic conditions. The influences of climate (temperature and precipitation) and forest management (thinning method and intensity) on the productivity of red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) in Michigan were examined to assess whether repeated thinning treatments were able to increase climatic resiliency (i.e., maintaining productivity and reduced sensitivity to climatic stress). The cumulative productivity of each thinning treatment was determined, and it was found that thinning from below to a residual basal area of 14 m 2 ·ha −1 produced the largest average tree size but also the second lowest overall biomass per acre. On the other hand, the uncut control and the thinning from above to a residual basal area of 28 m 2 ·ha −1 produced the smallest average tree size but also the greatest overall biomass per acre. Dendrochronological methods were used to quantify sensitivity of annual radial growth to monthly and seasonal climatic factors for each thinning treatment type. Climatic sensitivity was influenced by thinning method (i.e., thinning from below decreased sensitivity to climatic stress more than thinning from above) and by thinning intensity (i.e., more intense thinning led to a lower climatic sensitivity). Overall, thinning from below to a residual basal area of 21 m 2 ·ha −1 represented a potentially beneficial compromise to maximize tree size, biomass per acre, and reduced sensitivity to climatic stress, and, thus, the highest level of climatic resilience.

Michigan↗

USGS1983

Present and former equilibrium-line altitudes near Mount Everest, Nepal and Tibet

New information on equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) of present and former glaciers in the Mount Everest area of eastern Nepal and southern Tibet has been derived from field mapping and interpretation of topographic maps and Landsat imagery. Present ELAs rise from south to north across the Himalayan Range from 5200 to 5800 m, as indicated by the altitudes of lowest cirque glaciers and highest lateral and medial moraines on valley glaciers. In contrast, ELAs during maximum late Pleistocene glaciation rose in altitude from 4300 to 5500 m across the range, as indicated by altitudes of lowest cirque floors and maximum extent of glacial deposits. Highest ELAs occurred on previously unrecognized ice caps that formerly covered extensive highland areas in Tibet north of the range crest. During four distinct Holocene glacial advances of subequal magnitude, ELAs were depressed about 30% as much as the late Pleistocene maximum depression. Depression of ELAs during the late Pleistocene glaciation was about twice as great south of the range crest (950 m) as north of it (400 m). Although the present northward decrease in precipitation causes ELAs to rise northward for 85 km at 7.1 m km -1 , the gradient during maximum late Pleistocene glaciation was 11 m km -1 . Such a great contrast in glacier response to climate change over a short distance is remarkable and probably reflects increased aridity on the Tibetan Plateau and increased climatic contrast across the Himalayan Range during glacial ages.

Mount Everest↗

USGS2003

Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains

Tree-ring records spanning the past seven centuries from the central and southern Rocky Mountains were studied using wavelet analysis to examine multidecadal (>30-70 yr) patterns of drought variation. Fifteen tree-ring series were grouped into five regional composite chronologies based on shared low-frequency behavior. Strong multidecadal phasing of moisture variation was present in all regions during the late 16th century megadrought. Oscillatory modes in the 30-70 yr domain persisted until the mid-19th century in two regions, and wet-dry cycles were apparently synchronous at some sites until the 1950s drought. The 16th/17th century pattern of severe multidecadal drought followed by decades of wet conditions resembles the 1950s drought and post-1976 wet period. The 16th century megadrought, which may have resulted from coupling of a decadal (???20-30 yr) Pacific cool phase with a multidecadal warm phase in the North Atlantic, marked a substantial reorganization of climate in the Rocky Mountain region.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2002

USGS leads United States effort in Mallik Well

This winter, in the extremely cold, far reaches of the upper Northwest Territory of Canada, there is an international consortium of researchers participating in a program to study methane hydrates. The researchers are currently drilling a 1200 m-deep production research well through the permafrost. It is one of three wells located in the Mackenzie Delta, on the shore of the Beaufort Sea. Two observation wells were drilled adjacent to the main production test well earlier this year. Research objectives for the program focus on two themes: (1) the assessment of the production and properties of gas hydrates, and (2) an assessment of the stability of continental gas hydrates given warming trends predicted by climate change models. Of particular interest is the physical response of the gas hydrate to depressurization and thermal production stimulation. Cores are being taken from the well, and scientists hope to retrieve at least 200 m of core, including all the gas hydrate-rich intervals. Once cored, the samples are transported 200 kilometers over ice roads to Inuvik. Nearly 60 researchers are examining the cores for everything from geophysical parameters to microbiological analyses.

Fire in the Ice: NETL Methane Hydrate Newsletter↗

USGS2019

Predicting persistence of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout populations in an uncertain future

The Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (RGCT ) occupies just 12% of its ancestral range. As the southernmost subspecies of Cutthroat Trout, we expect a warming climate to bring additional stressors to RGCT populations, such as increased stream temperatures, reduced streamflows, and increased incidence of wildfire. We developed a Bayesian network (BN ) model using site‐specific data, empirical research, and expert knowledge to estimate the probability of persistence for each of the 121 remaining RGCT conservation populations and to rank the severity of the threats they face. These inputs quantified the genetic risks (e.g., inbreeding risk and hybridization risk), population demographics (disease risk, habitat suitability, and survival), and probability of stochastic disturbances (stream drying risk and wildfire risk) in an uncertain future. We also created stream temperature and base flow discharge models coupled with regionally downscaled climate projections to predict future abiotic conditions at short‐term (2040s) and long‐term (2080s) time horizons. In the absence of active management, we predicted a decrease in the average probability of population persistence from 0.53 (current) to 0.31 (2040s) and 0.26 (2080s). Only 11% of these populations were predicted to have a greater than 75% chance of persisting to the 2080s. Threat of invasion by nonnative trout had the strongest effect on population persistence. Of the 78 populations that are already invaded or lacking complete barriers, 60% were estimated to be extirpated by 2080 and the remainder averaged only a 10% chance of persistence. In contrast, the effects of increased stream temperatures were predicted to affect the future persistence of only 9% of the 121 RGCT populations remaining, as most have been restricted to high‐elevation habitats that are cold enough to buffer against some stream warming. Our BN model provides a framework for evaluating threats and will be useful to guide management actions that are likely to provide the most benefit for long‐term conservation.

New Mexico, Colorado↗

USGS2018

Findings and lessons learned from the assessment of the Mexico-United States transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers: The utility of social science in applied hydrologic research

Study Region This study region encompasses the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers which are shared between the states of Sonora (Mexico) and Arizona (US). Special regional considerations include a semi-arid climate, basin-fill aquifers with predominantly montane recharge areas, economic drivers in the mining, trade, and military sectors, groundwater-dependent cities with expanding cones of depression, interbasin groundwater transfers, ground- and surface-water contamination, and protected aquatic and riparian habitats that act as significant migration corridors for hundreds of species, including some that are threatened and endangered. Study Focus We focus on lessons learned from the hydrologic assessment of the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers. We conducted the work, in two phases: (1) laying the groundwork and (2) implementation. The “laying the groundwork” phase consisted of binational meetings with stakeholders and key actors (agencies and individuals), and the development of an understanding of the physical, institutional, historical, and socio-political context. This led to signing of the binational Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP) agreement in 2009 and detailed the process for cooperation and coordination in the assessment of shared aquifers. The implementation phase began with an agreement to proceed with the study of four “focus” aquifers (Santa Cruz, San Pedro, Mesilla (Conejos-Médanos in Mexico), and Hueco Bolson (Bolsón del Hueco in Mexico)) and development of associated technical teams. Though we do include a brief discussion of the lessons learned from the physical science portion of the study, the results have been described and published elsewhere. The bulk of the paper instead focuses on the findings and lessons learned from the integration of social-science perspectives into a largely physical-science based program, since there is a growing recognition of the need for this type of approach especially in the management and assessment of transboundary aquifers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region The Sonora-Arizona effort succeeded because both countries were adequately represented, and because of flexibility of skills and ability of teams comprising both university and government scientists. Teams included social and earth scientists. Including the social sciences was critical to research design and implementation, and to addressing the cultural, institutional, and socio-political contexts of transboundary aquifer assessment. Significant components of the continuing implementation phase include strategic planning, data compilation and analysis, cross-border integration of datasets, geophysical and geochemical surveys, and internal, peer, and stakeholder engagement.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2026

Annual grass invasion is transforming the sagebrush biome’s songbird communities

Novel stressors like climate change and biological invasions alter ecological communities, resulting in changes to ecosystem services and biodiversity (that is, ecological transformation). Most ecological transformation research focuses on plants, but animals are likely affected by and plausibly mediate the extent, impact, and pace of transformations. In western North America, where invasive annual grasses are transforming sagebrush-steppe ecosystems, we quantified how transformation in vegetation drives songbird community change. We hypothesized that transformation of vegetation communities via invasion alters wildlife communities by favoring generalists over specialists, albeit with extinction debts that may temporarily obscure transformations’ consequences. Although local-scale songbird diversity increased with grass invasion, we found that this shift was accompanied by ongoing reorganization of songbird communities at larger scales (across the sagebrush biome), driven by heterogeneous impacts of invasion among species and guilds. Through our biome-wide analysis, we were also able to identify high-priority regions for conservation of sensitive songbird species. Our research provides evidence that wildlife communities are transforming alongside vegetation communities and offers insight into the approaches required to quantify nascent community turnover.

western United States↗

USGS2017

Advancing mangrove macroecology

Mangrove forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services to society, yet they are among the most anthropogenically impacted coastal ecosystems in the world. In this chapter, we discuss and provide examples for how macroecology can advance our understanding of mangrove ecosystems. Macroecology is broadly defined as a discipline that uses statistical analyses to investigate large-scale, universal patterns in the distribution, abundance, diversity, and organization of species and ecosystems, including the scaling of ecological processes and structural and functional relationships. Macroecological methods can be used to advance our understanding of how non-linear responses in natural systems can be triggered by human impacts at local, regional, and global scales. Although macroecology has the potential to gain knowledge on universal patterns and processes that govern mangrove ecosystems, the application of macroecological methods to mangroves has historically been limited by constraints in data quality and availability. Here we provide examples that include evaluations of the variation in mangrove forest ecosystem structure and function in relation to macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) and climate change. Additional examples include work focused upon the continental distribution of aboveground net primary productivity and carbon storage, which are rapidly advancing research areas. These examples demonstrate the value of a macroecological perspective for the understanding of global- and regional-scale effects of both changing environmental conditions and management actions on ecosystem structure, function, and the supply of goods and services. We also present current trends in mangrove modeling approaches and their potential utility to test hypotheses about mangrove structural and functional properties. Given the gap in relevant experimental work at the regional scale, we also discuss the potential use of mangrove restoration and rehabilitation projects as macroecological studies that advance the critical selection and conservation of ecosystem services when managing mangrove resources. Future work to further incorporate macroecology into mangrove research will require a concerted effort by research groups and institutions to launch research initiatives and synthesize data collected across broad biogeographic regions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Twenty Years After the 1988 Yellowstone Fires: Lessons About Disturbance and Ecosystems

The 1988 Yellowstone fires were among the first in what has proven to be an upsurge in large severe fires in the western USA during the past 20 years. At the time of the fires, little was known about the impacts of such a large severe disturbance because scientists had had few previous opportunities to study such an event. Ecologists predicted short- and long-term effects of the 1988 fires on vegetation, biogeochemistry, primary productivity, wildlife, and aquatic ecosystems based on scientific understanding of the time. Twenty-plus years of subsequent study allow these early predictions to be evaluated. Most of the original predictions were at least partially supported, but some predictions were refuted, others nuanced, and a few postfire phenomena were entirely unexpected. Post-1988 Yellowstone studies catalyzed advances in ecology focused on the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity, contingent influences, and multiple interacting drivers. Post-1988 research in Yellowstone also has changed public perceptions of fire as an ecological process and attitudes towards fire management. Looking ahead to projected climate change and more frequent large fires, the well-documented ecological responses to the 1988 Yellowstone fires provide a foundation for detecting and evaluating potential changes in fire regimes of temperate mountainous regions. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2013

Exotic plant colonization and occupancy within riparian areas of the Interior Columbia River and Upper Missouri River basins, USA

Exotic plant invasions into riparia often result in shifts in vegetative composition, altered stream function, and cascading effects to biota at multiple scales. Characterizing the distribution patterns of exotic plants is an important step in directing targeted research to identify mechanisms of invasion and potential management strategies. In this study, we employed occupancy models to examine the associations of landscape, climate, and disturbance attributes with the colonization and occupancy patterns for spotted knapweed ( Centaurea stoebe L.), Canada thistle ( Cirsium arvense L., Scop.), and cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) in the riparia of headwater streams ( n  = 1,091) in the Interior Columbia River and Upper Missouri River Basins. We found relatively low occupancy rates for cheatgrass (0.06, SE = 0.02) and spotted knapweed (0.04, SE = 0.01), but moderate occupancy of Canada thistle (0.28, SE = 0.05); colonization rates were low across all species (<0.01). We found the distributions of spotted knapweed, Canada thistle, and cheatgrass to exhibit significant associations with both ambient climate conditions and anthropogenic and natural disturbances. We attribute the low to moderate occupancy and colonization rates to the relatively remote locations of our sample sites within headwater streams and urge consideration of means to prevent further invasions.

Interior Columbia River and Upper Missouri River b↗

USGS2020

Change points in annual peak streamflows: Method comparisons and historical change points in the United States

Change-point, or step-trend, detection is an active area of research in statistics and an area of great interest in hydrology because change points may be evidence of natural or anthropogenic changes in climatic, hydrologic, or landscape processes. A common change-point technique is the Pettitt test; however, many change-point methods are now available and testing of methods has been limited. This study investigated eight methods for detecting change points in the location (central tendency, seven methods) and scale (dispersion or spread, one method) of annual peak streamflows, using simulated data with and without change points, and peak-streamflow series from basins with known large additions of reservoir storage. Parametric methods tested, including a Bayesian one, did not perform well, even when transforming peak streamflows to approximate normality by using logarithms. Nonparametric methods other than the Pettitt test allow for more than one change point but have an unacceptable number of false positives. Based on the results of our methods comparisons, we used the Pettitt and the Mood tests to find change points in location and scale, respectively, in thousands of streamgage records in the conterminous United States. Change points in location (median) and scale are abundant, with the changes in median peak streamflow showing regional patterns, as well as a strong increased streamflow signal around 1970. The changes in scale of peak streamflows are dominated more by temporal than spatial patterns; more streamgages had decreases in scale in earlier decades than recent decades and more streamgages had increases in scale occurring in recent decades than earlier decades.

Journal of Hydrology↗