SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate Dynamics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2022

Local diversity in phenological responses of migratory lake sturgeon to warm winters

Rich intraspecific diversity in traits that shape responses to environmental conditions implies that effects of climate change will differ within species or even populations. Nevertheless, few studies investigate how different groups within species respond to climatic fluctuations, and most risk assessments rely upon species-wide generalizations. We studied effects of among-year variation in air temperature on the spring migratory phenology of a metapopulation of lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens within waters connecting Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Sturgeon here express multiple migratory phenotypes that all spawn in either the St. Clair River or Detroit River but differ in their use after spawning of more than 86 000 km 2 of accessible lake and river habitat. Acoustic tracking over nine years (2012–2020) revealed mixed phenological responses to late-winter air temperatures, with three migratory groups arriving at rivers earlier during warm years and one whose arrival was consistent across years regardless of temperature. Notably, two groups that spawn in the same river but overwinter in different lakes entered the river with greater synchrony during warm years because one advanced its phenology while the other did not. The results indicated warm weather could alter the dynamics of the metapopulation and broader community, and exemplify the complexity hidden beneath broadscale generalizations of species' response to climate change.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2002

Historical and projected carbon balance of mature black spruce ecosystems across north america: The role of carbon-nitrogen interactions

The role of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) interactions on sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in black spruce ecosystems across North America was evaluated with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) by applying parameterizations of the model in which C-N dynamics were either coupled or uncoupled. First, the performance of the parameterizations, which were developed for the dynamics of black spruce ecosystems at the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska, were evaluated by simulating C dynamics at eddy correlation tower sites in the Boreal Ecosystem Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) for black spruce ecosystems in the northern study area (northern site) and the southern study area (southern site) with local climate data. We compared simulated monthly growing season (May to September) estimates of gross primary production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (RESP), and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 1994 to 1997 to available field-based estimates at both sites. At the northern site, monthly growing season estimates of GPP and RESP for the coupled and uncoupled simulations were highly correlated with the field-based estimates (coupled: R2= 0.77, 0.88 for GPP and RESP; uncoupled: R2 = 0.67, 0.92 for GPP and RESP). Although the simulated seasonal pattern of NEP generally matched the field-based data, the correlations between field-based and simulated monthly growing season NEP were lower (R2 = 0.40, 0.00 for coupled and uncoupled simulations, respectively) in comparison to the correlations between field-based and simulated GPP and RESP. The annual NEP simulated by the coupled parameterization fell within the uncertainty of field-based estimates in two of three years. On the other hand, annual NEP simulated by the uncoupled parameterization only fell within the field-based uncertainty in one of three years. At the southern site, simulated NEP generally matched field-based NEP estimates, and the correlation between monthly growing season field-based and simulated NEP (R2 = 0.36, 0.20 for coupled and uncoupled simulations, respectively) was similar to the correlations at the northern site. To evaluate the role of N dynamics in C balance of black spruce ecosystems across North America, we simulated historical and projected C dynamics from 1900 to 2100 with a global-based climatology at 0.5?? resolution (latitude ?? longitude) with both the coupled and uncoupled parameterizations of TEM. From analyses at the northern site, several consistent patterns emerge. There was greater inter-annual variability in net primary production (NPP) simulated by the uncoupled parameterization as compared to the coupled parameterization, which led to substantial differences in inter-annual variability in NEP between the parameterizations. The divergence between NPP and heterotrophic respiration was greater in the uncoupled simulation, resulting in more C sequestration during the projected period. These responses were the result of fundamentally different responses of the coupled and uncoupled parameterizations to changes in CO2 and climate. Across North American black spruce ecosystems, the range of simulated decadal changes in C storage was substantially greater for the uncoupled parameterization than for the coupled parameterization. Analysis of the spatial variability in decadal responses of C dynamics revealed that C fluxes simulated by the coupled and uncoupled parameterizations have different sensitivities to climate and that the climate sensitivities of the fluxes change over the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of this study suggest that uncertainties can be reduced through (1) factorial studies focused on elucidating the role of C and N interactions in the response of mature black spruce ecosystems to manipulations of atmospheric CO2 and climate, (2) establishment of a network of continuous, long-term measurements of C dynamics across the range of mature black spruce ecosystems in North America, and (3) ancillary measureme

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

Density dependence and habitat selection affect overwintering abundance of monarch butterflies at regional and site scales in California

The monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) is a species of iconic cultural interest. Thanks to annual overwintering monarch counts at hundreds of locations in coastal California, we are able to track fluctuations with high temporal and spatial resolution. Between 1997 and 2024, monarch populations at overwintering sites in the western United States experienced severe dips, at times (2018–2020, 2023–2024) giving the appearance of a population collapse. From 2018 to present, the Pismo State Beach Overwintering Monarch Grove has conducted multiple counts during overwintering and geolocated counts of individual monarch clusters to specific trees within the site. This study determined how annual monarch population variability is influenced by both climate and prior year population density at the state, region, and overwintering-site scale. Furthermore, through a machine-learning process, we investigated how overwintering site configuration and structure drive monarch winter space-use dynamics within the Pismo Beach site. Our approach found monarchs exhibit a preference for specific overwintering sites in California, and that 64% of annual variability of counts across sites can be explained by climate and density dependence, with density dependence explaining 50% of total variability. Within the site we found very little regional climate effect, but individual trees, tree size, distance to boundary, and the amount of shade were all strong indicators of monarch presence. Additionally, only 11 out of 320 trees at the Pismo Beach site accounted for 83.6% of all counts over 6 years, highlighting how monarchs use specific trees and how tree structure may create preferred microclimates for clustering.

California↗

USGS2023

Effects of population density and environmental conditions on life-history prevalence in a migratory fish

Individual variation in life-history traits can have important implications for the ability of populations to respond to environmental variability and change. In migratory animals, flexibility in the timing of life-history events, such as juvenile emigration from natal areas, can influence the effects of population density and environmental conditions on habitat use and population dynamics. We evaluated the functional relationships between population density and environmental covariates and the abundance of juveniles expressing different life-history pathways in a migratory fish, Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), in the Wenatchee River basin in Washington State, USA. We found that the abundance of younger emigrants from natal streams was best described by an accelerating or near-linear function of spawners, whereas the abundance of older emigrants was best described by a decelerating function of spawners. This supports the hypothesis that emigration timing varies in response to density in natal areas, with younger-emigrating life-history pathways comprising a larger proportion of emigrants when densities of conspecifics are high. We also observed positive relationships between winter stream discharge and abundance of younger emigrants, supporting the hypothesis that habitat conditions can also influence the prevalence of different life-history pathways. Our results suggest that early emigration, and a resultant increase in the use of downstream rearing habitats, may increase at higher population densities and with greater winter precipitation. Winter precipitation is projected to increase in this system due to climate warming. Characterizing relationships between life-history prevalence and environmental conditions may improve our understanding of species habitat requirements and is a first step in understanding the dynamics of species with diverse life-history strategies. As environmental conditions change—due to climate change, management, or other factors—resultant life-history changes are likely to have important demographic implications that will be challenging to predict when life-history diversity is not accounted for in population models.

Washington↗

USGS2017

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis ) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results. Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in the Southwest region was 0.35 (80-percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.21−0.52), whereas the forecast probability was 0.48 (80-percent CI: 0.30−0.64) over a 40-year projected time horizon. Moderate and intense RTMM events are expected to continue to be most frequent in the Southwest region, to increase in mean frequency in the Northwest region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Northwest region was 0, whereas the forecast probability was 0.12 [80-percent CI: 0.02−0.39] over a 40-year projected time horizon) and in the Atlantic region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Atlantic region was 0.05 [80-percent CI: 0.005–0.18], whereas the forecast probability was 0.11 [80-percent CI: 0.03−0.25] over a 40-year projected time horizon), and to remain absent from the Upper St. Johns River region. The impact of red-tide blooms on manatee mortality has been measured for the Southwest region but not for the Northwest and Atlantic regions, where such events have been rare. The expert panel predicted that the median magnitude of RTMM events in the Atlantic and Northwest regions will be much smaller than that in the Southwest; given the large uncertainties, however, they acknowledged the possibility that these events could be larger in their mortality impacts than in the Southwest region. By its nature, forecasting requires expert judgment because it is impossible to have empirical evidence about the future. The large uncertainties in parameter estimates over a 100-year timeframe are to be expected and may also indicate that the training provided to panelists successfully minimized one common pitfall of expert judgment, that of overconfidence. This study has provided useful and needed inputs to the Florida manatee population viability analysis associated with an important and recurrent source of mortality from harmful algal blooms.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Cyclic changes in Pennsylvanian paleoclimate and effects on floristic dynamics in tropical Pangaea

Wetland floras narrowly define perceptions of Pennsylvanian tropical ecosystems, the so-called Coal Age. Such wetlands reflect humid to perhumid climate, leading to characterizations of Pennsylvanian tropics as everwet, swampy. These views are biased by the high preservation potential of wetlands. Sedimentation patterns, paleosols, and fossil floras indicate the presence of vegetation tolerant of subhumid to dry-subhumid, perhaps semi-arid climate in basins between peat formation times. Understanding the significance of this seasonally-dry vegetation has suffered from conceptual and terminological confusion. A clearer view has emerged as models for framing the data have improved. Basinal floras typical of seasonally-dry conditions, relatively low soil moisture regimes, are well documented but mainly from isolated deposits. Some of the earliest, dominated by primitive pteridosperms ("Fl??zfern" floras), occur in clastic rocks between European Early Pennsylvanian coal beds. Later Early Pennsylvanian, fern-cordaitalean vegetation, different from coal floras, is preserved in marine goniatite bullions. Conifers are first suggested by late Mississippian Potoniesporites pollen. About the same time, in North America, broadleaf foliage, Lesleya and Megalopteris occur in basin-margin settings, on drought-prone limestone substrates. The best known, xeromorphic floras found between coal beds appear in the Middle through Late Pennsylvanian, containing conifers, cordaitaleans, and pteridosperms. The Middle Pennsylvanian appearances of this flora are mainly allochthonous, though parautochthonous occurrences have been reported. Parautochthonous assemblages are mostly Late Pennsylvanian. The conifer flora became dominant in western and central Pangaean equatorial lowlands in earliest Permian. Location of the humid-perhumid wetland flora during periods of relative dryness, though rarely discussed, is as, or more, perplexing than the spatial location of seasonally-dry floras through time - wetland plants had few migratory options and possibly survived in small refugia, within and outside of basins. Coupled oscillations in climate, sea level, and vegetation were driven most likely by glacial-interglacial fluctuations, perhaps controlled by orbital cyclicity. ?? 2010.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2014

Comparative biogeochemistry-ecosystem-human interactions on dynamic continental margins

The ocean’s continental margins face strong and rapid change, forced by a combination of direct human activity, anthropogenic CO 2 -induced climate change, and natural variability. Stimulated by discussions in Goa, India at the IMBER IMBIZO III, we (1) provide an overview of the drivers of biogeochemical variation and change on margins, (2) compare temporal trends in hydrographic and biogeochemical data across different margins (3) review ecosystem responses to these changes, (4) highlight the importance of margin time series for detecting and attributing change and (5) examine societal responses to changing margin biogeochemistry and ecosystems. We synthesize information over a wide range of margin settings in order to identify the commonalities and distinctions among continental margin ecosystems. Key drivers of biogeochemical variation include long-term climate cycles, CO 2 -induced warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, as well as sea level rise, eutrophication, hydrologic and water cycle alteration, changing land use, fishing, and species invasion. Ecosystem responses are complex and impact major margin services including primary production, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, shoreline protection, chemical buffering, and biodiversity. Despite regional differences, the societal consequences of these changes are unarguably large and mandate coherent actions to reduce, mitigate and adapt to multiple stressors on continental margins.

Journal of Marine Systems↗

USGS2015

The effects of heterospecifics and climatic conditions on incubation behavior within a mixed-species colony

Parental incubation behavior largely influences nest survival, a critical demographic process in avian population dynamics, and behaviors vary across species with different life history breeding strategies. Although research has identified nest survival advantages of mixing colonies, behavioral mechanisms that might explain these effects is largely lacking. We examined parental incubation behavior using video-monitoring techniques on Alcatraz Island, California, of black-crowned night-heron Nycticorax nycticorax (hereinafter, night-heron) in a mixed-species colony with California gulls Larus californicus and western gulls L. occidentalis . We first quantified general nesting behaviors (i.e. incubation constancy, and nest attendance), and a suite of specific nesting behaviors (i.e. inactivity, vigilance, preening, and nest maintenance) with respect to six different daily time periods. We employed linear mixed effects models to investigate environmental and temporal factors as sources of variation in incubation constancy and nest attendance using 211 nest days across three nesting seasons (2010–2012). We found incubation constancy (percent of time on the eggs) and nest attendance (percent of time at the nest) were lower for nests that were located < 3 m from one or more gull nest, which indirectly supports the predator protection hypothesis, whereby heterospecifics provide protection allowing more time for foraging and other self-maintenance activities. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence of the influence of one nesting species on the incubation behavior of another. We also identified distinct differences between incubation constancy and nest attentiveness, indicating that these biparental incubating species do not share similar energetic constraints as those that are observed for uniparental species. Additionally, we found that variation in incubation behavior was a function of temperature and precipitation, where the strength of these effects was dependent on the time of day. Overall, these findings strengthen our understanding of incubation behavior and nest ecology of a colonial-nesting species.

California↗

USGS2021

Forecasting community reassembly using climate-linked spatio-temporal ecosystem models

Ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human activities, altering linkages among physical and biological components. Spatial community reassembly occurs when these human impacts modify the spatial overlap between system components, and there is need for practical tools to forecast spatial community reassembly at landscape scales using monitoring data. To illustrate a new approach, we extend a generalization of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which involves a spatio‐temporal ecosystem model that approximates coupled physical, biological and human dynamics. We then demonstrate its application to five trophic levels for the eastern Bering Sea by fitting to multiple, spatially unbalanced datasets measuring physical characteristics (temperature measurements and climate‐linked forecasts), primary producers (spring and fall size‐fractionated chlorophyll‐a), secondary producers (copepods), juveniles (age‐0 walleye pollock), adult consumers (five commercially important fishes), human activities (seasonal fishing effort) and mobile predators (seabirds). We identify the spatial niche for each ecosystem component, as well as dominant modes of variability that are highly correlated with a known bottom–up driver of dynamics. We then measure spatial overlap between interacting variables (using Schoener's‐D) and identify that age‐0 pollock have decreased spatial overlap with copepods and increased overlap with adult pollock during warm years, and also that adult pollock have increased overlap with arrowtooth flounder and decreased overlap with catcher–processor fishing effort during these warm years. Given the warming conditions that are projected for the coming decade, the model forecasts increased prey and competitor overlap involving adult pollock (between age‐0 pollock, adult pollock and arrowtooth flounder) and decreased overlap with the copepod forage base and with the catcher–processor fishery during future warming. We recommend that joint species distribution models be extended to incorporate ‘ecological teleconnections' (correlations between distant locations arising from known mechanisms) arising from behavioral adaptation by mobile animals as well as passive advection of nutrients and planktonic juvenile stages.

Ecography↗

USGS2013

Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum , as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

Biology↗

USGS2019

Climatic variation drives growth potential of juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) along a sub-Arctic boreal riverscape

Climatic variation is a key driver of freshwater physical processes that in turn control stream fish growth and population dynamics at fine spatial scales and species distributions across broad landscapes. A recent downturn in Chinook Salmon returns across the Yukon River basin, Alaska, USA, and Yukon Territories, Canada, has led to hardship among user groups and increased interest in understanding how freshwater processes affect population persistence within this important commercial, recreational, and subsistence fishery. Here we present results for the Chena River basin, interior Alaska, where we used field observations and riverscape-scale spatially-explicit models to assess the influence of stream temperature on juvenile Chinook Salmon growth potential among years (2003 2015) and across 438 stream-km. We ran bioenergetic simulations for warm and cool year scenarios and contrasted temperature model precision and growth among different habitat types (small and large tributaries, main stem, side channels) based on field estimates of growth, size, and diet, and measured stream temperatures. Stream temperature regimes predicted from remotely-sensed land surface temperature were precise during the open water season (R2 > 0.87; RMSE < 1.1 C) although the relationship was weakest in groundwater-mediated tributary habitats. Field observations revealed salmon were 67% larger by mass (g) in September during a warm year versus a cool year from main stem sites. Bioenergetic simulations predicted that, on average, growth potential was 42% higher in warm years, although growth potential varied across the riverscape as much as 60% between cool upstream and warm downstream habitats. Climate variability is clearly an important driver of freshwater habitat conditions and has a large role in controlling freshwater growth of juvenile salmon. A better understanding of how climate influences growth conditions in different habitat types and across broad landscapes will be critical for conservation and management of Alaskan Chinook Salmon stocks under an expected warmer and more variable climate.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2024

Temporal variability in irrigated land and climate influences on salinity loading across the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2017

Freshwater salinization is a growing global concern impacting human and ecosystem needs with impacts to water availability for human and ecological uses. In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), dissolved solids in streams compound ongoing water supply challenges to further limit water availability and cause economic damages. Much effort has been dedicated to understanding dissolved solid sources, transport, and management in the region, yet temporal variability in loading from key sources such as irrigated lands and the influence of climate on dissolved solids loading remains unknown. Quantifying the contributions and temporal variability of dissolved solids loads from irrigated lands may benefit salinity management efforts. This study applies a time-varying (dynamic) modeling approach to predict annual dissolved solids loads across the UCRB from 1986 through 2017. Between 66% and 82% of the total accumulated dissolved solids load in the basin is from groundwater (storage and baseflow). Our findings link climate, irrigation, and groundwater, and confirm large storage contributions that have declined slightly with time. Dissolved solids loads increase during wet periods and decrease during dry periods, although the relative contributions of different sources vary little with time. Irrigation enhances loading efficiency relative to unirrigated areas through runoff and groundwater, and can locally be a major source of dissolved solids where irrigation occurs. Results indicate that loads from irrigated areas increase when irrigated area and/or water available for runoff increase. Increased regional aridification over the study period may have contributed to decreasing stream salinity through both quicker surface runoff and lagged groundwater storage processes. Study results may be relevant to salinity management in arid environments where water availability is limited and where irrigation influences salinity loading to streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2006

Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems

In terrestrial high-latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze-thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960-2100 in extratropical regions (30-90??N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2-4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5 and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large-scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2009

Temporal latitudinal-gradient dynamics and tropical instability of deep-sea species diversity

A benthic microfaunal record from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean over the past four glacial-interglacial cycles was investigated to understand temporal dynamics of deep-sea latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs). The results demonstrate unexpected instability and high amplitude fluctuations of species diversity in the tropical deep ocean that are correlated with orbital-scale oscillations in global climate: Species diversity is low during glacial and high during interglacial periods. This implies that climate severely influences deep-sea diversity, even at tropical latitudes, and that deep-sea LSDGs, while generally present for the last 36 million years, were weakened or absent during glacial periods. Temporally dynamic LSDGs and unstable tropical diversity require reconsideration of current ecological hypotheses about the generation and maintenance of biodiversity as they apply to the deep sea, and underscore the potential vulnerability and conservation importance of tropical deep-sea ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2018

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Science Advances↗

USGS2015

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water↗