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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
USGS1966

Birds and Aircraft on Midway Islands, 1959-63 Investigations

At Midway Naval Station, 1.100 miles west-northwest of Honolulu, military aircraft collide with flying albatrosses at the rate of about 300 to 400 per year. One aircraft out of every five that hits an albatross on takeoff either aborts (stops before it is airborne), or dumps fuel and returns for appraisal of damage. About 70,000 pairs of Laysan albatrosses and 7,000 pairs of blackfooted albatrosses nest at Midway in any given year. The population is declining. Two-thirds or more of the birds of breeding age nest each year. The minimum breeding age recorded is 5 years (each species), but many individuals do not nest until at least 7 years of age. Young birds begin to return to Midway at 3 years of age and are found more frequently as breeding age approaches. They come ashore more frequently in March and April (the high bird strike months) than in midwinter. Even in midwinter the number of 'walkers' (birds not on nests) may comprise more than 40 percent of the albatrosses present on Sand Island, Midway. Maximum longevity of the Laysan albatross is believed to exceed 40 years; 6 out of 99 birds banded as breeding adults (7+ years old) were still alive 24 years after banding. Control methods tested experimentally include disturbance, gunfire, other sounds, radar beams, smoke, odors, destruction of nests, eggs, chicks, and adults, moving of birds, eggs, and chicks, erection of obstacles to flight, and habitat management. Habitat management (leveling and hardsurfacing of shoulders of runways) has been the most effective. Albatrosses were counted over the runways at 10 locations in 1957, 1958, and 1960 to determine the effects of wind direction, wind speed, and topography on the numbers of flying birds. Birds were most concentrated in areas where rising air currents were created as winds blew against dunes or tall trees. Soaring and strike rate both increased with greater wind speeds. There was a highly significant correlation between strike frequency and wind direction. Soaring and strike rate were greatest over runway 6-24 when winds were from a northerly quadrant, and greatest over runway 15-33 when winds were east to southeast. Counts (nearly 7,000 observations) before and after the leveling of dunes along part of the south side of the principal runway, 6-24, showed a 61 percent decrease in soaring over the principal runway as compared with a 4 percent increase over runway 15-33 where no major habitat management had been done. Studies of population dynamics of Laysan and black-footed albatrosses in 4 study plots (totaling 14 1/2 acres) are yielding information on nesting density, changes in nesting population from year to year, frequency of nesting of individual birds, closeness of return, reproductive success, rate of nest loss, age at which young birds begin nesting, age composition of the population, and life expectancy of adults. Recommendations are made for reducing the bird hazard and for protecting birds that are not involved in the hazard.

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife↗
USGS2016

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2016 progress summary: Technical Report from DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, No. 86

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. This report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information (1991-2015) and its implications for the harvest management strategy. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent. These results suggest that the pink‐footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density‐dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. Beginning with the 2016 hunting season, harvest quotas will be prescribed on an annual basis rather than every three years because of the potential to better meet population management objectives. Based on updated model weights, the recent observations of population size (74,800), the proportion of the population comprised of one-year-old birds (0.138), and temperature days in Svalbard (20), the optimal harvest quota for the 2016 hunting season is 25,000. The large increase in quota compared to that during first three years of AHM reflects stakeholders’ desire to reduce population size to the goal of 60,000, recognizing that population size remains relatively high and above-average production is expected in 2016 due to a warm spring.

Report↗
USGS2018

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch‐size‐induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland‐bird demography and could be an effective component of climate‐change adaptation.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2019

A Methodology to Assess the National and Regional Impacts of U.S. Wind Energy Development on Birds and Bats

This scientific investigations report describes an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that used research, monitoring data, and modeling to develop a methodology to assess both the current and future population-level consequences of wind energy development on species of birds and bats that are present in the United States during any part of their life cycle. The methodology is currently applicable to birds and bats, focuses primarily on the effects of collisions with turbines, and can be applied to any species that breeds in, migrates through, or otherwise uses any part of the United States. The methodology assesses species at the national and regional scales and identifies those species potentially in need of more detailed study, as well as those species that are likely at low risk from wind energy development. This approach is fundamentally different from existing methods focusing on impacts at individual facilities. This report supersedes USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5066 by the same authors, which described a preliminary version of the methodology. Following reviews of the preliminary methodology by a panel of external experts, public comments, and additional internal review, the methodology was revised and finalized. The three components of the refined methodology described in this new report rely on publicly available fatality information, population estimates, species range maps, turbine location data, biological characteristics of species, and population models. First, three metrics are combined to determine direct and indirect relative effects from wind energy facilities to generate a list of species scores. Second, a generic population model estimates the expected change in population trend caused by the additive mortality from collisions with wind turbines. Third, the methodology combines an estimate of observed fatalities and an estimate of potential biological removal to assess the possibility of a decrease in population size. The latter two components are quantitative. In a test case, the methodology was used to analyze data for six bird species and three bat species. Components of the methodology are based on simplifying assumptions and require information that, for many species, may be sparse or unreliable or may require further study. These assumptions should be carefully considered when using outputs from the methodology. Increases in the quality of data for fatalities from collisions with wind turbines, species distributions, abundance, and demography will likely improve results for uses of the methodology. The methodology’s design identifies and prioritizes a subset of the bird and bat species that may experience population-level impacts from collisions with wind turbines, both currently and from future wind energy development in the United States. Results of an assessment using this methodology could focus future research to improve our understanding of those impacts and to guide avoidance and minimization strategies. In addition, this methodology can be used to identify species for more intensive demographic modeling or to highlight those species that may not require any additional research because effects of wind energy development on their populations are projected to be small. The effects of wind energy facilities on nine unidentified species used in the test case described in this report have not been assessed. Their data were simply used to show the application of the methodology to real-world data and the types of outputs it would produce.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this hybrid zone, but the future of northern populations in the Great Lakes states and Canada (where >80% of the species occurs at present) is highly uncertain because of continued northward expansion of Blue-winged Warblers and hybridization. A second, now-disjunct band of Golden-winged Warbler populations exists in the Appalachian Mountains from southeastern New York to northern Georgia, surrounded at lower elevations by Blue-winged Warblers. Important concentrations of Golden-winged Warblers persist in the Allegheny Mountains region of West Virginia, the Cumberland Mountains in Tennessee, Blue Ridge Mountains of western North Carolina, Allegheny Plateau and Pocono Mountains in Pennsylvania, and in the Hudson Highlands of southern New York. These high-elevation Appalachian populations have escaped contact with Blue-winged Warblers until very recently and represent important refugia for conservation and management; other Appalachian populations are rapidly declining. In addition, based on historical records and standardized surveys across the wintering grounds, we identified three regions of concentration: highlands and Caribbean slopes from Guatemala and Belize to northwestern Nicaragua; middle elevations (both slopes) in Costa Rica and western Panama; and in an arc of the northern Andes from central Colombia to northern Venezuela. It is possible that the winter range has been shifting towards the northwest in recent decades, paralleling shifts in the breeding distribution. Future conservation efforts for Golden-winged Warbler need to include close monitoring of the dynamic phenotypic and genetic distributional shifts, and may need to consider the “winged warbler” complex together as a highly adaptable evolutionary unit.

Studies in Avian Biology↗
USGS2004

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.

Condor↗
USGS2018

Demographic consequences of conservation reserve program grasslands for lesser prairie‐chickens

Knowledge of landscape and regional circumstances where conservation programs are successful on working lands in agricultural production are needed. Converting marginal croplands to grasslands using conservation programs such as the United States Department of Agriculture Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) should be beneficial for many grassland‐obligate wildlife species; however, addition of CRP grasslands may result in different population effects based on regional climate, characteristics of the surrounding landscape, or species planted or established. Within landscapes occupied by lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), CRP may provide habitat only for specific life stages and habitat selection for CRP may vary between wet and dry years. Among all study sites, we captured and fitted 280 female lesser prairie‐chickens with very high frequency (VHF)‐ and global positioning system (GPS) transmitters during the spring lekking seasons of 2013–2015 to monitor habitat selection for CRP in regions of varying climate. We also estimated vital rates and habitat selection for 148 individuals, using sites in northwest Kansas, USA. The greatest ecological services of CRP became apparent when examining habitat selection and densities. Nest densities were approximately 3 times greater in CRP grasslands than native working grasslands (i.e., grazed), demonstrating a population‐level benefit (CRP = 6.0 nests/10 km2 ± 1.29 [SE], native working grassland = 1.7 nests/10 km2 ± 0.62). However, CRP supporting high nest density did not provide brood habitat; 85% of females with broods surviving to 7 days moved their young to other cover types. Regression analyses indicated lesser prairie‐chickens were approximately 8 times more likely to use CRP when 5,000‐ha landscapes were 70% rather than 20% grassland, indicating variation in the level of ecological services provided by CRP was dependent upon composition of the larger landscape. Further, CRP grasslands were 1.7 times more likely to be used by lesser prairie‐chickens in regions receiving 40 cm compared to 70 cm of average annual precipitation and during years of greater drought intensity. Demographic and resource selection analyses revealed that establishing CRP grasslands in northwest Kansas can increase the amount nesting habitat in a region where it may have previously been limited, thereby providing refugia to sustain populations through periods of extreme drought. Nest survival, adult survival during breeding, and nonbreeding season survival did not vary between lesser prairie‐chickens that used and did not use CRP grasslands. The finite rate of population growth was also similar for birds using CRP and using only native working grasslands, suggesting that CRP provides habitat similar to that of native working grassland in this region. Overall, lesser prairie‐chickens may thrive in landscapes that are a mosaic of native working grassland, CRP grassland, with a minimal amount of cropland, particularly when nesting and brood habitat are in close proximity.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

The first hop: Use of Beaufort Sea deltas by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers

River deltas along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast are used by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ) after leaving their terrestrial natal sites, but the drivers of their use of these stopover sites on the first “hop” of fall migration are unknown. We quantified sandpiper temporal distribution and abundance as related to food resources at three river deltas during the beginning of their fall migration (post-breeding period) to compare the habitat quality among these deltas. We conducted population counts, sampled invertebrates, and captured birds to collect blood samples from individuals for triglyceride and stable isotope analyses to determine fattening rates and diet. Patterns of sandpiper and invertebrate abundance were complex and varied among deltas and within seasons. River deltas were used by sandpipers from late July to late August, and peak sandpiper counts ranged from 1000 to 4000 individuals, of which 98% were hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers. Isotopic signatures from blood plasma samples indicated that birds switched from a diet of upland tundra to delta invertebrate taxa as the migration season progressed, suggesting a dependence on delta invertebrates. Despite differences in diet among deltas, we found no differences in fattening rates of juvenile sandpipers as indicated by triglyceride levels. The number of sandpipers was positively associated with abundance of Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at the Jago and Okpilak-Hulahula deltas; an isotopic mixing model indicated that sandpipers consumed Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at Jago, mostly Chironomidae at Okpilak-Hulahula and Spionidae at Canning. Regardless of the difference in sandpiper diets at the Beaufort Sea deltas, their similar fattening rates throughout the season indicate that all of these stopover sites provide a critical food resource for hatch-year sandpipers beginning their first migration.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Linking nest microhabitat selection to nest survival within declining pheasant populations in the Central Valley of California

Context: The ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ) has experienced considerable population declines in recent decades, especially in agricultural environments of the Central Valley of California. Although large-scale changes in land cover have been reported as an important driver of population dynamics, the effects of microhabitat conditions on specific demographic rates (e.g. nesting) are largely unknown. Aims: Our goal was to identify the key microhabitat factors that contribute to wild pheasant fitness by linking individual-level selection of each microhabitat characteristic to the survival of their nests within the California Central Valley. Methods: We radio- or GPS-marked 190 female ring-necked pheasants within five study areas and measured nest-site characteristics and nest fates during 2013–2017. Specifically, we modeled microhabitat selection using vegetation covariates measured at nest sites and random sites and then modeled nest survival as a function of selecting each microhabitat characteristic. Key results: Female pheasants tended to select nest sites with greater proportions of herbaceous cover and avoided areas with greater proportions of bare-ground. Specifically, perennial grass cover was the most explanatory factor with regard to nest survival, but selection for increasing visual obstruction alone was not shown to have a significant effect on survival. Further, we found strong evidence that pheasants selecting sites with greater perennial grass height were more likely to have successful nests. Conclusions: Although pheasants will select many types of vegetation available as cover, our models provided evidence that perennial grasses are more beneficial than other cover types to pheasants selecting nesting sites. Implications: Focusing management actions on promoting perennial grass cover and increased heights at the microsite level, in lieu of other vegetative modifications, may provide improved quality of habitat for nesting pheasants and, perhaps, result in increased productivity. This is especially important if cover is limited during specific times of the nesting period. Understanding how microhabitat selection influences fitness can help land managers develop strategies to increase the sustainability of hunted populations of this popular game-bird species.

California↗
USGS2007

Calculating background levels for ecological risk parameters in toxic harbor sediment

Establishing background levels for biological parameters is necessary in assessing the ecological risks from harbor sediment contaminated with toxic chemicals. For chemicals in sediment, the term contaminated is defined as having concentrations above background and significant human health or ecological risk levels. For biological parameters, a site could be considered contaminated if levels of the parameter are either more or less than the background level, depending on the specific parameter. Biological parameters can include tissue chemical concentrations in ecological receptors, bioassay responses, bioaccumulation levels, and benthic community metrics. Chemical parameters can include sediment concentrations of a variety of potentially toxic chemicals. Indirectly, contaminated harbor sediment can impact shellfish, fish, birds, and marine mammals, and human populations. This paper summarizes the methods used to define background levels for chemical and biological parameters from a survey of ecological risk investigations of marine harbor sediment at California Navy bases. Background levels for regional biological indices used to quantify ecological risks for benthic communities are also described. Generally, background stations are positioned in relatively clean areas exhibiting the same physical and general chemical characteristics as nearby areas with contaminated harbor sediment. The number of background stations and the number of sample replicates per background station depend on the statistical design of the sediment ecological risk investigation, developed through the data quality objective (DQO) process. Biological data from the background stations can be compared to data from a contaminated site by using minimum or maximum background levels or comparative statistics. In Navy ecological risk assessments (ERA's), calculated background levels and appropriate ecological risk screening criteria are used to identify sampling stations and sites with contaminated sediments.

California↗
USGS2016

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications . Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Michigan↗
USGS2008

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2006

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2006

Estimating numbers of greater prairie-chickens using mark-resight techniques

Current monitoring efforts for greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations indicate that populations are declining across their range. Monitoring the population status of greater prairie-chickens is based on traditional lek surveys (TLS) that provide an index without considering detectability. Estimators, such as immigration-emigration joint maximum-likelihood estimator from a hypergeometric distribution (IEJHE), can account for detectability and provide reliable population estimates based on resightings. We evaluated the use of mark-resight methods using radiotelemetry to estimate population size and density of greater prairie-chickens on 2 sites at a tallgrass prairie in the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA. We used average distances traveled from lek of capture to estimate density. Population estimates and confidence intervals at the 2 sites were 54 (CI 50-59) on 52.9 km 2 and 87 (CI 82-94) on 73.6 km2. The TLS performed at the same sites resulted in population ranges of 7-34 and 36-63 and always produced a lower population index than the mark-resight population estimate with a larger range. Mark-resight simulations with varying male:female ratios of marks indicated that this ratio was important in designing a population study on prairie-chickens. Confidence intervals for estimates when no marks were placed on females at the 2 sites (CI 46-50, 76-84) did not overlap confidence intervals when 40% of marks were placed on females (CI 54-64, 91-109). Population estimates derived using this mark-resight technique were apparently more accurate than traditional methods and would be more effective in detecting changes in prairie-chicken populations. Our technique could improve prairie-chicken management by providing wildlife biologists and land managers with a tool to estimate the population size and trends of lekking bird species, such as greater prairie-chickens.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1995

Estimation and confidence intervals for empirical mixing distributions

Questions regarding collections of parameter estimates can frequently be expressed in terms of an empirical mixing distribution (EMD). This report discusses empirical Bayes estimation of an EMD, with emphasis on the construction of interval estimates. Estimation of the EMD is accomplished by substitution of estimates of prior parameters in the posterior mean of the EMD. This procedure is examined in a parametric model (the normal-normal mixture) and in a semi-parametric model. In both cases, the empirical Bayes bootstrap of Laird and Louis (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 739-757) is used to assess the variability of the estimated EMD arising from the estimation of prior parameters. The proposed methods are applied to a meta-analysis of population trend estimates for groups of birds.

Biometrics↗
USGS1968

Lack of association among duck broodmates during migration and wintering

Male (Lensink, 1964: 19) and female ducks tend to return to the area where they last bred or were raised (Sowles, 1955). Band recovery data show a similar tendency for ducks to return to wintering areas (Stewart et al., 1958; Martinson, 1966). Wintering British Columbia Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) populations may be definite associations of birds that breed in the same general locality, migrate together, and use the same wintering area (Munro, 1943). On the other hand Gollop (1965: 36-37) showed that Mallards reared in Saskatchewan or breeding there re- turned in subsequent years, but "neither migrated nor wintered as definite associations." He based his conclusions on recovery data from groups of Mallards banded on the same slough and from broodmates. His data showed, by date or area of recovery, that the birds migrated independently and sometimes to different wintering localities. This paper presents additional data suggesting that ducks banded as brood- mates may migrate independently.

The Auk↗
USGS2016

Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Age and colony variation in Adélie penguin metapopulation vital rates: Insights from a 25-year mark–recapture study

Understanding how vital rates vary with age, life-history stage, and among populations is fundamental for predicting the demographic consequences of environmental change, especially in longer-lived species with complex life histories. These species often exhibit delayed maturity and iteroparity, making nuanced demographic insights critical for assessing their long-term viability. This study investigated age- and colony-related variation in Adélie penguin vital rates including survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity. We used mark–recapture data collected over 25 years (1996–2020) from three Adélie penguin breeding colonies that differed in population sizes and trends but comprised a metapopulation located at capes Royds, Bird, and Crozier on Ross Island, Antarctica. We used multi-state models to estimate survival and detection rates relative to reproductive state and breeding colony and estimated transition probabilities reflecting movements between reproductive states and colonies. Apparent survival varied by reproductive state, colony, and age and averaged 0.80 (SD = 0.02) at Bird, and 0.72 (SD = 0.03) and 0.73 (SD = 0.03) at Crozier and Royds, respectively, for pre-breeders age 2–7 years with strong declines in pre-breeder survival after age 8. We observed less age-related variation in survival of breeders and non-breeders, but we observed differences between colonies with lower survival for breeders (0.72 to 0.80) compared to non-breeders (0.75 to 0.82). The average probability of surviving the first 2 years after fledging ranged from 0.43 (SD = 0.14) at Royds and Crozier (0.43, SD = 0.10) to 0.55 (SD = 0.15) at Bird. Movement between colonies was highest for pre-breeders (0.00%–12.00% depending on age and colony) and lowest for breeders (<0.20%). We observed the lowest age-related recruitment rates at Royds, with recruitment at Crozier almost twice as high, and intermediate at Bird. Breeding propensity was highest at Crozier and lowest at Bird. Colony-specific variation in vital rates likely contributed differently to population trajectories, suggesting that care must be taken to extrapolate vital rate estimates across colonies even within a metapopulation. These findings also highlight the importance of considering age, life-history stage, and geographic variation when assessing population vital rates in species with complex life histories.

Frontiers in Ecology and Environment↗