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Biological responses to climate impacts with a focus on Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN)

This chapter reviews the responses to climate change on the 367 Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) identified by the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Diversity Technical Committee (NEFWDTC), technical experts from states’ natural resource agencies (Appendix 3.1). These species were chosen based on their conservation status, listing in SWAPs, and the percentage of their range that occurs in the Northeast. The objectives of this chapter are to: summarize how regional biodiversity has already responded and is expected to respond to climate change; summarize information on specific RSGCN species responses to climate change to date and anticipated under future scenarios; characterize the greatest uncertainties about how biodiversity and RSGCN species will respond to climate change in the future; and highlight where other factors are expected to exacerbate the effects of climate change. This information was obtained through a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature, primarily using the ISI Web of Knowledge to search for papers on each species related to “climate”, “temperature”, or “precipitation”. Although we undoubtedly missed some sources, the following allows us to review some of the ways climate change will affect regional species of conservation concern

Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, Ma↗

Ecosystems science: Genes to landscapes

Bountiful fisheries, healthy and resilient wildlife, flourishing forests and vibrant grasslands are coveted resources that benefit all Americans. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science supports the conservation and management of the Nation’s fish and wildlife, and the landscapes they inhabit. Our biological resources—ecosystems and the wild things that live in them—are the foundation of our conservation heritage and an economic asset to current and future generations of Americans. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area, the biological research arm of the Department of the Interior (DOI), provides science to help America achieve sustainable management and conservation of its biological resources. This work is done within the broader mission of the USGS—to serve the Nation with science that advances understanding of our natural resources, informs land and water stewardship, and helps safeguard communities from natural and environmental hazards. The Ecosystems Mission Area provides research, technical assistance, and education conducted by Cooperative Research Units and Science Centers located in nearly every State. The quality of life and economic strength in America hinges on healthy ecosystems that support living things and natural processes. Ecosystem science better enables society to understand how and why ecosystems change and to guide actions that can prevent damage to, and restore and sustain ecosystems. It is through this knowledge that informed decisions are made about natural resources that can enhance our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being.

Fact Sheet↗

Numerical simulation of dissolved silica in the San Fancisco Bay

A two-dimensional (vertical) steady-state numerical model that simulates water circulation and dissolved-silica distributions is applied to northern San Francisco Bay. The model (1) describes the strong influence of river inflow on estuarine circulation and, in turn, on the biologically modulated silica concentration, and (2) shows how rates of silica uptake relate to silica supply and mixing rates in modifying a conservative behavior. Longitudinal silica distributions influenced by biological uptake (assuming both vertically uniform and vertically decreasing uptake situations) show that uptake rates of 1 to 10 μg-at. l −1 day −1 are sufficient to depress silica concentrations at river inflows of 100–400 m 3 s −1 , respectively, and that the higher rates appear ineffective at inflows above 400 m 3 s −1 . The simulations further indicate that higher silica utilization in the null zone is not essential to depress silica concentrations strongly there. Advective water-replacement times at river inflows of 400, 200 and 100 m 3 s −1 are computed to be less than 25, 45 and 75 days, respectively, for a 120-km estuary-river system.

California↗

An interactive decision-making tool for evaluating biological and statistical standards of migrating fish survival past hydroelectric dams

Quantifying the downstream survival of migrating fish past dams is critical for conservation efforts. Regulators require assessments of survival as a condition of operation. Failure to meet an established survival standard may result in required operational or costly structural changes at a facility. Establishing the survival standard, as well as the rules of assessment, is a point of contention between regulators and operators. Management goals are based on biological criteria, but there are inherent statistical and probabilistic trade-offs when choosing a standard value and the method for assessment. We make a distinction between a “biological” goal (the conservation goal) and a “statistical” standard (a function of the biological goal, sample size, assessment method, and years of consecutive evaluation). An effective statistical standard maximizes true positives (passing the standard when the biological goal is being met) and true negatives (failing the standard when the goal is not being met), while minimizing false negatives and false positives. We explored the effects of sample size, true survival, and assessment methods on the probability of passing different statistical standards by simulating survival studies (simulating mark-recapture experiments). We observed a strong influence of assessment methods on the probability of making the right decision (true positive or true negative), especially when sample size, and recapture probability was low. As a support tool, we developed an interactive user interface to explore specific scenarios, and to aid communication among decision-makers.

River Research and Applications↗

Defining biologically relevant and hierarchically nested population units to inform wildlife management

Wildlife populations are increasingly affected by natural and anthropogenic changes that negatively alter biotic and abiotic processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales and therefore require increased wildlife management and conservation efforts. However, wildlife management boundaries frequently lack biological context and mechanisms to assess demographic data across the multiple spatiotemporal scales influencing populations. To address these limitations, we developed a novel approach to define biologically relevant subpopulations of hierarchically nested population levels that could facilitate managing and conserving wildlife populations and habitats. Our approach relied on the Spatial “K”luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal clustering algorithm, which we applied in an agglomerative manner (bottom-to-top). We modified the clustering algorithm using a workflow and population structure tiers from least-cost paths, which captured biological inferences of habitat conditions (functional connectivity), dispersal capabilities (potential connectivity), genetic information, and functional processes affecting movements. The approach uniquely included context of habitat resources (biotic and abiotic) summarized at multiple spatial scales surrounding locations with breeding site fidelity and constraint-based rules (number of sites grouped and population structure tiers). We applied our approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern, across their range within the western United States. This case study produced 13 hierarchically nested population levels (akin to cluster levels, each representing a collection of subpopulations of an increasing number of breeding sites). These closely approximated population closure at finer ecological scales (smaller subpopulation extents with fewer breeding sites; cluster levels ≥2), where >92% of individual sage-grouse's time occurred within their home cluster. With available population monitoring data, our approaches can support the investigation of factors affecting population dynamics at multiple scales and assist managers with making informed, targeted, and cost-effective decisions within an adaptive management framework. Importantly, our approach provides the flexibility of including species-relevant context, thereby supporting other wildlife characterized by site fidelity.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

Species nativeness as a cultural paradigm in conservation

Conservation entails cultural practices shaped by our worldviews, values, beliefs, and priorities for our interactions with nature. These inform how we categorize which species we want to occur in which landscapes. In Western conservation organizations, conceptualizations of species ‘belonging’ typically align with a dichotomy of native versus introduced species. This is a cultural paradigm, informed by biological considerations, and it is not uniformly shared across different cultures, resulting in varied conceptualizations of species belonging. These conceptualizations may continue to evolve as socio-ecological systems change over time. Thus, misalignment in perceptions of species belonging can manifest in seemingly intractable conflicts. We apply a cultural evolutionary lens to: (1) consider the social history of the native-introduced dichotomy; (2) describe social and ecological factors causing friction around the dichotomy; (3) explore how conservation can integrate diverse and changing values about species belonging, and (4) make predictions about future socio-ecological change that may shape conservation governance and our categorization of species. In doing so, we encourage conservation scientists and practitioners to practice reflexivity about the cultural nature of conservation and management of introduced species. This application of cultural evolution presents a unique lens for recognizing the inevitability of both social and ecological change and inspires critical consideration of how diverse and changing values might be integrated into, and shape, the future of conservation.

Biological Conservation↗

Conservation status of the world’s skinks (Scincidae): Taxonomic and geographic patterns in extinction risk

Our knowledge of the conservation status of reptiles, the most diverse group of terrestrial vertebrates, has improved dramatically over the past decade, but still lags behind that of the other tetrapod groups. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive assessment (~92% of the world’s ~1,714 described species) of the conservation status of skinks (Scincidae), the most speciose reptile family worldwide. Using IUCN criteria, we found that ~20% of species are threatened with extinction, and nine species are Extinct or Extinct in the Wild. The highest levels of threat are evident in Madagascar, and the Neotropics, and in the subfamilies Mabuyinae, Eugongylinae and Scincinae. The vast majority of threatened skink species were listed based primarily on their small geographic ranges (Criterion B, 83%; Criterion D2, 13%). Although the population trend of 42% of species were stable, 14% were found to have declining populations. The key threats to skinks are habitat loss due to agriculture, invasive species, and biological resource use. Distributions of 61% of species did not overlap with protected areas. Despite our improved knowledge of the conservation status of the world’s skinks, 8% of species remain to be assessed and 221 species (14%) are listed as Data Deficient. The conservation status of almost a quarter of the world’s skink species thus remains unknown. We use our updated knowledge of the conservation status of the group to develop and outline the priorities for the conservation assessment and management of the world’s skink species.

Biological Conservation↗

Small waterbodies of large conservation concern: Towards an integrated approach to more accurately measuring surface water dynamics

Millions of small waterbodies are dispersed throughout the middle of the North American continent, and billions of dollars have been invested to conserve, restore, and manage these waterbodies in the 20th and 21st centuries. Small waterbody conservation has been supported by different stakeholders aiming at improving water quality, enhancing floodwater storage, and supporting migratory bird breeding habitat. Conservation agencies are using hydrological and biological monitoring, modeling, and mapping to adaptively manage small waterbodies in the face of stressors such as invasive species and climate change. As remote sensing estimates of small waterbody surface water extent have become easier to access, understanding the capabilities and limitations of using remote sensing, especially in areas lacking surface water monitoring, is important for conservation decision making. Here, we used in situ monitoring and process-based hydrological modeling to explore remote sensing accuracy, especially related to waterbody size, emergent aquatic vegetation cover, and climatic conditions. Overall, we found that the accuracy of satellite and aerial imagery surface water mapping approaches vastly decreased for waterbodies smaller than 2 ha. We also found emergent vegetation could be masking surface water in waterbodies larger than 2 ha and that accuracy of some remote sensing estimates may decrease during wetter climatic periods. These results indicate that sensors commonly used for surface water applications alone may not be able to accurately detect small waterbody surface water, which supports the need for combining monitoring and modeling to understand how small waterbodies may respond to future changes in climate and land use.

Minnesota↗

Book review: The ecology and behavior of amphibians

This state‐of‐the‐art book has made its timely emergence amid a crisis of global magnitude: that of population declines, range reductions, and extinctions of numerous species of amphibians. A clear understanding of the fundamental concepts in amphibian biology is crucial to the success of any conservation effort. This volume compiles the information necessary to acquire that basic understanding. It is a comprehensive synthesis of both traditional and contemporary facets of amphibian biology, spanning a breadth of topics ranging from phylogeny, physiology, behavior, population and community ecology, and conservation. As such, it undoubtedly takes its place among contemporary volumes as the single, authoritative source for basic topics relevant to amphibian life. Review info: The Ecology and Behavior of Amphibians. By Kentwood D. Wells, 2007. ISBN: 978-0-226-89334-1, 1148 pp.

The Quarterly Review of Biology↗

Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. Moreover, this project documented biological thresholds related to climate variability and change for critical species in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. Specifically, our objectives were to identify the primary drivers (climate change vs. urban growth) of species distribution changes in the Northeast; examine the nature of species landscape capability change over time to identify potential thresholds; determine how changing temperatures and snowpack characteristics will drive species interactions; analyze the sensitivity of tree and bird responses to the magnitude, variability, periodicity, and seasonality of temperature and precipitation under climate change in the eastern U.S.; and identify how discrete climate triggers such as extreme events will correlate with known biological thresholds. Major outcomes included 1) refining the understanding of the mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution of vulnerable populations; and 2) improving how these results are conveyed to stakeholders by identifying understandable responses in the form of thresholds.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗

Chemical and biological quality of water in part of the Everglades, southeastern Florida

A comprehensive monitoring network was established in a part of the Everglades to evaluate the quality of water being delivered to Everglades National Park. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters were determined in surface water, bottom sediment, and bulk precipitation (rainfall and dry fallout). The geology of the area, bottom sediment, bulk precipitation, natural, urban, and agricultural runoff, and the characteristics of the hydrologic system in the Everglades influence the type and concentration of each chemical constituent and how it affects the water quality. The quality of surface water in the agricultural area between Lake Okeechobee and the water conservation areas is markedly different from that of other surface water in southeastern Florida. In general, the water in this area is higher in concentrations of most chemical constituents. Man has engaged in cultural activities, both agricultural and urban, which have affected the water quality in the northern and eastern segments of the area of investigation. The quality of the water improves, however, as it flows to the south and east because there is minimal input from man's activities and many of the constituents are assimilated by plants, sorbed on organic material and clay in the bottom sediments, and entrapped within the sediments. Dilution by rainfall and concentration by evapotranspiration are also important factors that influence the quality of surface water in the area of investigation. The area of investigation in the Everglades is a sink for macronutrients, trace metals, and chlorinated-hydrocarbon insecticides. These constituents do not move through the system freely. They become tied up in various complexes and for that reason, the water being delivered to Everglades National Park is of better quality than the water entering the northern edge of the water conservation areas. The various physical and biological processes and chemical reactions combine to improve the water quality as the water flows southward. The data presented in this report may be used as a baseline for determination of future changes in water quality at the several places in the Everglades where recurrent sampling of rainfall, surface water, and bottom sediments was undertaken during the course of the investigation.

Florida↗

USGS Workshop on Scientific Aspects of a Long-Term Experimental Plan for Glen Canyon Dam, April 10-11, 2007, Flagstaff, Arizona

Executive Summary Glen Canyon Dam is located in the lower reaches of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area on the Colorado River, approximately 15 miles upriver from Grand Canyon National Park (fig. 1). In 1992, Congress passed and the President signed into law the Grand Canyon Protection Act (GCPA; title XVIII, sec. 1801?1809, of Public Law 102-575), which seeks ?to protect, mitigate adverse impacts to, and improve the values for which Grand Canyon National Park and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area were established.? The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) was implemented as a result of the 1996 Record of Decision on the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam Final Environmental Impact Statement to ensure that the primary mandate of the GCPA is met through advances in information and resources management (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1995). On November 3, 2006, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) announced it would develop a long-term experimental plan environmental impact statement (LTEP EIS) for operational activities at Glen Canyon Dam and other management actions on the Colorado River. The purpose of the long-term experimental plan is twofold: (1) to increase the scientific understanding of the ecosystem and (2) to improve and protect important downstream resources. The proposed plan would implement a structured, longterm program of experimentation to include dam operations, potential modifications to Glen Canyon Dam intake structures, and other management actions such as removal of nonnative fish species. The development of the long-term experimental plan continues efforts begun by the GCDAMP to protect resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, including Grand Canyon, through adaptive management and scientific experimentation. The LTEP EIS will rely on the extensive scientific studies that have been undertaken as part of the adaptive management program by the U.S. Geological Survey?s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), one of the four research stations within the USGS Southwest Biological Science Center. On April 10 and 11, 2007, at the behest of Reclamation, the GCMRC convened a workshop with scientific experts to identify one or more scientifically credible, long-term experimental options for Reclamation to consider for the LTEP EIS that would be consistent with the purpose and need for the plan. Workshop participants included government, academic, and private scientists with broad experience in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon and regulated rivers around the world. Resource managers and GCDAMP participants were also present on the second day of the workshop. In advance of the workshop, Reclamation and LTEP EIS cooperating agencies identified 14 core scientific questions. Workshop participants were asked to consider how proposed options would address these questions, which fall primarily into four areas: (1) conservation of endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and other high-priority biological resources, (2) conservation of sediment resources, (3) enhancement of recreational resources, and (4) preservation of cultural resources. A secondary objective of the workshop was the evaluation of four long-term experimental options developed by the GCDAMP Science Planning Group (SPG) (appendix B). The flow and nonflow treatments called for in the four experimental options were an important starting point for workshop discussions. At the beginning of the workshop, participants were provided with the final LTEP EIS scoping report prepared by Reclamation. Participants were also advised that Reclamation had committed to ?make every effortEto ensure that a new population of humpback chub is established in the mainstem or one or more of the tributaries within Grand Canyon? in the 1995 Operation of Glen Canyon Dam Final Environmental Impact Statement (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1995). This decision was consistent with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service?s 1995 bi

Open-File Report↗

An overview of raptor conservation in Latin America

Prior to the last decade, biological studies of raptorial birds in Latin America were almost nonexistent. For many species little more was known than their general range and habitat type. The last few years have seen the opening of a door to what will surely be a flood of scientific investigations. Ultimately, the survival of raptor communities in Latin America depends not only on research but also on several other equally significant conservation efforts. These typically appear in the following order: first, appropriate legislation must be enacted and enforced to provide legal protection; second, the public must be educated concerning the value of wildlife; third, substantial blocks of favourable habitat must be identified and preserved; fourth, economic incentives must be generated so that the local human populations actually benefit from the preservation of vulnerable wildlife and natural habitats; and finally, the long-term success of all of these efforts in each nation depends on the attainment of political, economic and social stability.

Birds of Prey Bulletin↗

Molecular contributions to conservation

Recent advances in molecular technology have opened a new chapter in species conservation efforts, as well as population biology. DNA sequencing, MHC (major histocompatibility complex), minisatellite, microsatellite, and RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) procedures allow for identification of parentage, more distant relatives, founders to new populations, unidentified individuals, population structure, effective population size, population-specific markers, etc. PCR (polymerase chain reaction) amplification of mitochondrial DNA, nuclear DNA, ribosomal DNA, chloroplast DNA, and other systems provide for more sophisticated analyses of metapopulation structure, hybridization events, and delineation of species, subspecies, and races, all of which aid in setting species recovery priorities. Each technique can be powerful in its own right but is most credible when used in conjunction with other molecular techniques and, most importantly, with ecological and demographic data collected from the field. Surprisingly few taxa of concern have been assayed with any molecular technique. Thus, rather than showcasing exhaustive details from a few well-known examples, this paper attempts to present a broad range of cases in which molecular techniques have been used to provide insight into conservation efforts.

Ecology↗

A geological perspective on the degradation and conservation of western Atlantic coral reefs

Continuing coral-reef degradation in the western Atlantic is resulting in loss of ecological and geologic functions of reefs. With the goal of assisting resource managers and stewards of reefs in setting and measuring progress toward realistic goals for coral-reef conservation and restoration, we examined reef degradation in this region from a geological perspective. The importance of ecosystem services provided by coral reefs—as breakwaters that dissipate wave energy and protect shorelines and as providers of habitat for innumerable species—cannot be overstated. However, the few coral species responsible for reef building in the western Atlantic during the last approximately 1.5 million years are not thriving in the 21st century. These species are highly sensitive to abrupt temperature extremes, prone to disease infection, and have low sexual reproductive potential. Their vulnerability and the low functional redundancy of branching corals have led to the low resilience of western Atlantic reef ecosystems. The decrease in live coral cover over the last 50 years highlights the need for study of relict (senescent) reefs, which, from the perspective of coastline protection and habitat structure, may be just as important to conserve as the living coral veneer. Research is needed to characterize the geological processes of bioerosion, reef cementation, and sediment transport as they relate to modern-day changes in reef elevation. For example, although parrotfish remove nuisance macroalgae, possibly promoting coral recruitment, they will not save Atlantic reefs from geological degradation. In fact, these fish are quickly nibbling away significant quantities of Holocene reef framework. The question of how different biota covering dead reefs affect framework resistance to biological and physical erosion needs to be addressed. Monitoring and managing reefs with respect to physical resilience, in addition to ecological resilience, could optimize the expenditure of resources in conserving Atlantic reefs and the services they provide.

Conservation Biology↗

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Biological Conservation↗

Using biodiversity metrics to guide conservation planning in altered tropical landscapes

Biodiversity metrics are frequently used to guide conservation planning because they can summarize biogeographical attributes of plant and animal communities quickly and at multiple scales. Attributes include habitat features of high conservation value, representativeness, and redundancy of biological communities. We conducted a rapid ecological assessment of resident avian species in the west-central mountainous region of Puerto Rico in 2015, a landscape dominated by coffee cultivation. We focused on this landscape because shade-grown and restored shade-grown coffee plantations offer an opportunity to complement protected habitat (e.g., reserves) to enhance species persistence. We used species richness, which tallies the number of unique species, and a quadratic entropy index of diversity, which incorporates interspecific taxonomic differentiation to evaluate species representativeness and redundancy across sun- and shade-grown coffee plantations and secondary forest. We surveyed 120 sites, calculating both metrics using species-specific occupancy probabilities estimated from community-level occupancy models. Species representativeness and redundancy were high as neither metric was able to discriminate among habitat types, possibly because plant communities were redundant, and the avian community was dominated by species adept at exploiting altered habitats. Similarly, we could not discriminate among avian communities modeling each biodiversity metric as a function of site-specific habitat covariates. Our findings and available knowledge on avian community demographics suggest that conservation strategies could couple protected habitat (e.g., reserves) and restored habitat (e.g., coffee plantations) to enhance species diversity and persistence across human-modified landscapes.

Caribbean Naturalist↗