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USGS2000

The crustal thickness of Australia

We investigate the crustal structure of the Australian continent using the temporary broadband stations of the Skippy and Kimba projects and permanent broadband stations. We isolate near-receiver information, in the form of crustal P-to-S conversions, using the receiver function technique. Stacked receiver functions are inverted for S velocity structure using a Genetic Algorithm approach to Receiver Function Inversion (GARFI). From the resulting velocity models we are able to determine the Moho depth and to classify the width of the crust-mantle transition for 65 broadband stations. Using these results and 51 independent estimates of crustal thickness from refraction and reflection profiles, we present a new, improved, map of Moho depth for the Australian continent. The thinnest crust (25 km) occurs in the Archean Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia; the thickest crust (61 km) occurs in Proterozoic central Australia. The average crustal thickness is 38.8 km (standard deviation 6.2 km). Interpolation error estimates are made using kriging and fall into the range 2.5–7.0 km. We find generally good agreement between the depth to the seismologically defined Moho and xenolith-derived estimates of crustal thickness beneath northeastern Australia. However, beneath the Lachlan Fold Belt the estimates are not in agreement, and it is possible that the two techniques are mapping differing parts of a broad Moho transition zone. The Archean cratons of Western Australia appear to have remained largely stable since cratonization, reflected in only slight variation of Moho depth. The largely Proterozoic center of Australia shows relatively thicker crust overall as well as major Moho offsets. We see evidence of the margin of the contact between the Precambrian craton and the Tasman Orogen, referred to as the Tasman Line.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggests that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2–3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ∼5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2000

Identifying fracture‐zone geometry using simulated annealing and hydraulic‐connection data

A new approach is presented to condition geostatistical simulation of high‐permeability zones in fractured rock to hydraulic‐connection data. A simulated‐annealing algorithm generates three‐dimensional (3‐D) realizations conditioned to borehole data, inferred hydraulic connections between packer‐isolated borehole intervals, and an indicator (fracture zone or background‐ K bedrock) variogram model of spatial variability. We apply the method to data from the U.S. Geological Survey Mirror Lake Site in New Hampshire, where connected high‐permeability fracture zones exert a strong control on fluid flow at the hundred‐meter scale. Single‐well hydraulic‐packer tests indicate where permeable fracture zones intersect boreholes, and multiple‐well pumping tests indicate the degree of hydraulic connection between boreholes. Borehole intervals connected by a fracture zone exhibit similar hydraulic responses, whereas intervals not connected by a fracture zone exhibit different responses. Our approach yields valuable insights into the 3‐D geometry of fracture zones at Mirror Lake. Statistical analysis of the realizations yields maps of the probabilities of intersecting specific fracture zones with additional wells. Inverse flow modeling based on the assumption of equivalent porous media is used to estimate hydraulic conductivity and specific storage and to identify those fracture‐zone geometries that are consistent with hydraulic test data.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2000

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2002

Fault structure and kinematics of the Long Valley Caldera region, California, revealed by high-accuracy earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanism stress inversions

We have determined high-resolution hypocenters for 45,000+ earthquakes that occurred between 1980 and 2000 in the Long Valley caldera area using a double-difference earthquake location algorithm and routinely determined arrival times. The locations reveal numerous discrete fault planes in the southern caldera and adjacent Sierra Nevada block (SNB). Intracaldera faults include a series of east/west-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults beneath the caldera's south moat and a series of more northerly striking strike-slip/normal faults beneath the caldera's resurgent dome. Seismicity in the SNB south of the caldera is confined to a crustal block bounded on the west by an east-dipping oblique normal fault and on the east by the Hilton Creek fault. Two NE-striking left-lateral strike-slip faults are responsible for most seismicity within this block. To understand better the stresses driving seismicity, we performed stress inversions using focal mechanisms with 50 or more first motions. This analysis reveals that the least principal stress direction systematically rotates across the studied region, from NE to SW in the caldera's south moat to WNW-ESE in Round Valley, 25 km to the SE. Because WNW-ESE extension is characteristic of the western boundary of the Basin and Range province, caldera area stresses appear to be locally perturbed. This stress perturbation does not seem to result from magma chamber inflation but may be related to the significant (???20 km) left step in the locus of extension along the Sierra Nevada/Basin and Range province boundary. This implies that regional-scale tectonic processes are driving seismic deformation in the Long Valley caldera.

California↗
USGS2003

Slip history and dynamic implications of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

[1] We investigate the rupture process of the 1999 Chi‐Chi, Taiwan, earthquake using extensive near‐source observations, including three‐component velocity waveforms at 36 strong motion stations and 119 GPS measurements. A three‐plane fault geometry derived from our previous inversion using only static data [ Ji et al. , 2001 ] is applied. The slip amplitude, rake angle, rupture initiation time, and risetime function are inverted simultaneously with a recently developed finite fault inverse method that combines a wavelet transform approach with a simulated annealing algorithm [ Ji et al. , 2002b ]. The inversion results are validated by the forward prediction of an independent data set, the teleseismic P and SH ground velocities, with notable agreement. The results show that the total seismic moment release of this earthquake is 2.7 × 10 20 N m and that most of the slip occurred in a triangular‐shaped asperity involving two fault segments, which is consistent with our previous static inversion. The rupture front propagates with an average rupture velocity of ∼2.0 km s −1 , and the average slip duration (risetime) is 7.2 s. Several interesting observations related to the temporal evolution of the Chi‐Chi earthquake are also investigated, including (1) the strong effect of the sinuous fault plane of the Chelungpu fault on spatial and temporal variations in slip history, (2) the intersection of fault 1 and fault 2 not being a strong impediment to the rupture propagation, and (3) the observation that the peak slip velocity near the surface is, in general, higher than on the deeper portion of the fault plane, as predicted by dynamic modeling.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Time‐lapse imaging of saline‐tracer transport in fractured rock using difference‐attenuation radar tomography

Accurate characterization of fractured‐rock aquifer heterogeneity remains one of the most challenging and important problems in groundwater hydrology. We demonstrate a promising strategy to identify preferential flow paths in fractured rock using a combination of geophysical monitoring and conventional hydrogeologic tests. Cross‐well difference‐attenuation ground‐penetrating radar was used to monitor saline‐tracer migration in an experiment at the U.S. Geological Survey Fractured Rock Hydrology Research Site in Grafton County, New Hampshire. Radar data sets were collected every 10 min in three adjoining planes for 5 hours during each of 12 tracer tests. An innovative inversion method accounts for data acquisition times and temporal changes in attenuation during data collection. The inverse algorithm minimizes a combination of two functions. The first is the sum of weighted squared data residuals. Second is a measure of solution complexity based on an a priori space‐time covariance function, subject to constraints that limit radar‐attenuation changes to regions of the tomograms traversed by high difference‐attenuation ray paths. The time series of tomograms indicate relative tracer concentrations and tracer arrival times in the image planes; from these we infer the presence and location of a preferential flow path within a previously identified zone of transmissive fractures. These results provide new insights into solute channeling and the nature of aquifer heterogeneity at the site.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2003

Comparisons of two moments‐based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [ Cohn et al. , 1997 ] and the Bulletin 17B [ Interagency Committee on Water Data , 1982 ] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed‐threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X 100 in some limited fixed‐threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed‐threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X 500 . B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV‐simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2003

An analytical formulation of two‐dimensional groundwater dispersion induced by surficial recharge variability

A predominant cause of dispersion in groundwater is advective mixing due to variability in seepage rates. Hydraulic conductivity variations have been extensively researched as a cause of this seepage variability. In this paper the effect of variations in surface recharge to a shallow surficial aquifer is investigated as an important additional effect. An analytical formulation has been developed that relates aquifer parameters and the statistics of recharge variability to increases in the dispersivity. This is accomplished by solving Fourier transforms of the small perturbation forms of the groundwater flow equations. Two field studies are presented in this paper to determine the statistics of recharge variability for input to the analytical formulation. A time series of water levels at a continuous groundwater recorder is used to investigate the temporal statistics of hydraulic head caused by recharge, and a series of infiltrometer measurements are used to define the spatial variability in the recharge parameters. With these field statistics representing head fluctuations due to recharge, the analytical formulation can be used to compute the dispersivity without an explicit representation of the recharge boundary. Results from a series of numerical experiments are used to define the limits of this analytical formulation and to provide some comparison. A sophisticated model has been developed using a particle‐tracking algorithm (modified to account for temporal variations) to estimate groundwater dispersion. Dispersivity increases of 9 percent are indicated by the analytical formulation for the aquifer at the field site. A comparison with numerical model results indicates that the analytical results are reasonable for shallow surficial aquifers in which two‐dimensional flow can be assumed.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2003

High precision earthquake locations reveal seismogenic structure beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

In 1989, an unusual earthquake swarm occurred beneath Mammoth Mountain that was probably associated with magmatic intrusion. To improve our understanding of this swarm, we relocated Mammoth Mountain earthquakes using a double difference algorithm. Relocated hypocenters reveal that most earthquakes occurred on two structures, a near-vertical plane at 7–9 km depth that has been interpreted as an intruding dike, and a circular ring-like structure at ∼5.5 km depth, above the northern end of the inferred dike. Earthquakes on this newly discovered ring structure form a conical section that dips outward away from the aseismic interior. Fault-plane solutions indicate that in 1989 the seismicity ring was slipping as a ring-normal fault as the center of the mountain rose with respect to the surrounding crust. Seismicity migrated around the ring, away from the underlying dike at a rate of ∼0.4 km/month, suggesting that fluid movement triggered seismicity on the ring fault.

California↗
USGS2004

Granular avalanches across irregular three-dimensional terrain: 1. Theory and computation

To establish a theoretical basis for predicting and interpreting the behavior of rapid mass movements on Earth's surface, we develop and test a new computational model for gravity-driven motion of granular avalanches across irregular, three-dimensional (3-D) terrain. The principles embodied in the model are simple and few: continuum mass and momentum conservation and intergranular stress generation governed by Coulomb friction. However, significant challenges result from the necessity of satisfying these principles when deforming avalanches interact with steep and highly variable 3-D terrain. We address these challenges in four ways. (1) We formulate depth-averaged governing equations that are referenced to a rectangular Cartesian coordinate system (with z vertical) and that account explicitly for the effect of nonzero vertical accelerations on depth-averaged mass and momentum fluxes and stress states. (2) We compute fluxes of mass and momentum across vertical cell boundaries using a high-resolution finite volume method and Roe-type Riemann solver. Our algorithm incorporates flux difference splitting, an entropy correction for the flux, and eigenvector decomposition to embed the effects of driving and resisting forces in Riemann solutions. (3) We use a finite element method and avalanche displacements predicted by Riemann solutions to compute Coulomb stresses conjugate to the displacements in 3-D stress space. (4) We test the model output against analytical solutions, a sand cone conceptual experiment, and (in a companion paper) data from detailed laboratory experiments. Model results illustrate a complex interplay of basal traction and internal stress, and they successfully predict not only the gross behavior but also many details of avalanche motion from initiation to deposition.

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface↗
USGS2004

Log Pearson type 3 quantile estimators with regional skew information and low outlier adjustments

The recently developed expected moments algorithm (EMA) [ Cohn et al. , 1997 ] does as well as maximum likelihood estimations at estimating log‐Pearson type 3 (LP3) flood quantiles using systematic and historical flood information. Needed extensions include use of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to be consistent with Bulletin 17B . Another issue addressed by Bulletin 17B is the treatment of low outliers. A Monte Carlo study compares the performance of Bulletin 17B using the entire sample with and without regional skew with estimators that use regional skew and censor low outliers, including an extended EMA estimator, the conditional probability adjustment (CPA) from Bulletin 17B , and an estimator that uses probability plot regression (PPR) to compute substitute values for low outliers. Estimators that neglect regional skew information do much worse than estimators that use an informative regional skewness estimator. For LP3 data the low outlier rejection procedure generally results in no loss of overall accuracy, and the differences between the MSEs of the estimators that used an informative regional skew are generally modest in the skewness range of real interest. Samples contaminated to model actual flood data demonstrate that estimators which give special treatment to low outliers significantly outperform estimators that make no such adjustment.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2004

Application of near real-time radial semblance to locate the shallow magmatic conduit at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Radial Semblance is applied to broadband seismic network data to provide source locations of Very-Long-Period (VLP) seismic energy in near real time. With an efficient algorithm and adequate network coverage, accurate source locations of VLP energy are derived to quickly locate the shallow magmatic conduit system at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. During a restart in magma flow following a brief pause in the current eruption, the shallow magmatic conduit is pressurized, resulting in elastic radiation from various parts of the conduit system. A steeply dipping distribution of VLP hypocenters outlines a region extending from sea level to about 550 m elevation below and just east of the Halemaumau Pit Crater. The distinct hypocenters suggest the shallow plumbing system beneath Halemaumau consists of a complex plexus of sills and dikes. An unconstrained location for a section of the conduit is also observed beneath the region between Kilauea Caldera and Kilauea Iki Crater.

Hawaii↗
USGS2005

Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Spatial and temporal variations in the age structure of Arctic sea ice

Spatial and temporal variations in the age structure of Arctic sea ice are investigated using a new reverse chronology algorithm that tracks ice-covered pixels to their location and date of origin based on ice motion and concentration data. The Beaufort Gyre tends to harbor the oldest (>10 years old) sea ice in the western Arctic while direct ice advection pathways toward the Transpolar Drift Stream maintain relatively young (10 years old (10+ year age class) were observed during 1989-2003. Since the mid-1990s, losses to the 10+ year age class lacked compensation by recruitment due to a prior depletion of all mature (6-10 year) age classes. Survival of the 1994 and 1996-1998 sea ice generations reestablished most mature age classes, and thereby the potential to increase extent of the 10+ year age class during the mid-2000s.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2007

Reach‐averaged sediment routing model of a canyon river

Spatial complexity in channel geometry indicates that accurate prediction of sediment transport requires modeling in at least two dimensions. However, a one‐dimensional model may be the only practical or possible alternative, especially for longer river reaches of practical concern in river management or landscape modeling. We have developed a one‐dimensional model of the Colorado River through upper Grand Canyon that addresses this problem by reach averaging the channel properties and predicting changes in sand storage using separate source and sink functions coupled to the sand routing model. The model incorporates results from the application of a two‐dimensional model of flow, sand transport, and bed evolution, and a new algorithm for setting the near‐bed sand boundary condition for sand transported over an exposed bouldery bed. Model predictions were compared to measurements of sand discharge during intermittent tributary inputs and varying discharges controlled by dam releases. The model predictions generally agree well with the timing and magnitude of measured sand discharges but tend to overpredict sand discharge during the early stages of a high release designed to redistribute sand to higher‐elevation deposits.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2008

Crop area estimation using high and medium resolution satellite imagery in areas with complex topography

Reliable estimates of cropped area (CA) in developing countries with chronic food shortages are essential for emergency relief and the design of appropriate market-based food security programs. Satellite interpretation of CA is an effective alternative to extensive and costly field surveys, which fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity at the country-level. Bias-corrected, texture based classifications show little deviation from actual crop inventories, when estimates derived from aerial photographs or field measurements are used to remove systematic errors in medium resolution estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate a hybrid high-medium resolution technique for Central Ethiopia that combines spatially limited unbiased estimates from IKONOS images, with spatially extensive Landsat ETM+ interpretations, land-cover, and SRTM-based topography. Logistic regression is used to derive the probability of a location being crop. These individual points are then aggregated to produce regional estimates of CA. District-level analysis of Landsat based estimates showed CA totals which supported the estimates of the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development. Continued work will evaluate the technique in other parts of Africa, while segmentation algorithms will be evaluated, in order to automate classification of medium resolution imagery for routine CA estimation in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2008

An autocorrelation method to detect low frequency earthquakes within tremor

Recent studies have shown that deep tremor in the Nankai Trough under western Shikoku consists of a swarm of low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that occur as slow shear slip on the down-dip extension of the primary seismogenic zone of the plate interface. The similarity of tremor in other locations suggests a similar mechanism, but the absence of cataloged low frequency earthquakes prevents a similar analysis. In this study, we develop a method for identifying LFEs within tremor. The method employs a matched-filter algorithm, similar to the technique used to infer that tremor in parts of Shikoku is comprised of LFEs; however, in this case we do not assume the origin times or locations of any LFEs a priori. We search for LFEs using the running autocorrelation of tremor waveforms for 6 Hi-Net stations in the vicinity of the tremor source. Time lags showing strong similarity in the autocorrelation represent either repeats, or near repeats, of LFEs within the tremor. We test the method on an hour of Hi-Net recordings of tremor and demonstrates that it extracts both known and previously unidentified LFEs. Once identified, we cross correlate waveforms to measure relative arrival times and locate the LFEs. The results are able to explain most of the tremor as a swarm of LFEs and the locations of newly identified events appear to fill a gap in the spatial distribution of known LFEs. This method should allow us to extend the analysis of Shelly et al. (2007a) to parts of the Nankai Trough in Shikoku that have sparse LFE coverage, and may also allow us to extend our analysis to other regions that experience deep tremor, but where LFEs have not yet been identified. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗