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Simulating land cover change impacts on groundwater recharge under selected climate projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi

This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12%, 0.7%, 0.01%, and 11% relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10%, 0.9%, 0.6%, and 9.3%. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.

Hawaii↗

Effect of land-applied biosolids on surface-water nutrient yields and groundwater quality in Orange County, North Carolina

Land application of municipal wastewater biosolids is the most common method of biosolids management used in North Carolina and the United States. Biosolids have characteristics that may be beneficial to soil and plants. Land application can take advantage of these beneficial qualities, whereas disposal in landfills or incineration poses no beneficial use of the waste. Some independent studies and laboratory analysis, however, have shown that land-applied biosolids can pose a threat to human health and surface-water and groundwater quality. The effect of municipal biosolids applied to agriculture fields is largely unknown in relation to the delivery of nutrients, bacteria, metals, and contaminants of emerging concern to surface-water and groundwater resources. Therefore, the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) collaborated with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the 319 Nonpoint Source Program to better understand the transport of nutrients and bacteria from biosolids application fields to groundwater and surface water and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of the current regulations. The USGS conducted a paired agricultural watershed study in the Collins Creek and Cane Creek Reservoir watersheds in Orange County, North Carolina. Field activities were conducted from March 2011 through May 2013 at two field study sites, including biosolids field application sites owned by Orange County Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA) in the Collins Creek watershed and a background study site in the Cane Creek watershed that has no fields receiving biosolids applications. Samples of biosolids source material and soil were collected from the land-application fields for laboratory analyses. Soil samples were also collected from a background agricultural field in the Cane Creek watershed that has never received land-applied municipal biosolids. Shallow groundwater samples were collected quarterly from new monitoring wells installed by NCDENR along the edge of the biosolids land-application fields and a background agricultural field for laboratory analyses. Two surface-water monitoring sites were established on Collins Creek to compute continuous streamflow and collect discrete baseflow and stormwater runoff water-quality data upstream and downstream from the biosolids land-application fields. Surface water-quality samples were also collected for baseflow and stormwater runoff conditions at an existing USGS streamgage on Cane Creek to monitor water-quality conditions in the background study watershed. The study primarily focused on nutrients and bacteria; however, data for field properties and water-quality constituents, including metals, major ions, and contaminants of emerging concern (household-, industrial-, and agricultural-use compounds, pharmaceutical compounds, hormones, and antibiotics) also were collected and used in the analyses. There were no exceedances of the 10 elements with designated U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ceiling concentrations for land-applied biosolids in any of the biosolids samples. Treatment processes and storage techniques used by OWASA are effective in eliminating Escherichia coli and fecal coliform bacteria from biosolids. Copper, molybdenum, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus were elevated in the soil from biosolids land-application fields relative to the background field. The relative richness of these constituents in the biosolids land-application fields is consistent with biosolids being the source of the elevated concentrations given the relatively high concentrations of these constituents in the biosolids samples that were collected. Shallow groundwater in the transitional zone wells, which were located adjacent to and topographically downgradient from all the biosolids land-application fields, were found to be statistically different and had higher nitrate concentrations (medians greater than 12 milligrams per liter) than all the other wells sampled as part of the study. Surface-water nutrient concentrations and yields, primarily nitrate, were higher at the monitoring site on Collins Creek downstream from the biosolids land-application fields than the other study sites that drained watersheds without biosolids land application. The largest differences in concentrations between sites were measured at baseflow conditions, which indicate that the main cause of these differences, particularly between Cane Creek and the Collins Creek site downstream from the OWASA application fields, is related to nitrate contribution from the shallow groundwater. Contaminants of emerging concern were detected in approximately 40 percent of the laboratory analyses of the biosolids samples and more frequently in soil samples from the biosolids land-application fields (approximately 40 percent of laboratory analyses) relative to the soil samples from the background field (approximately 12 percent of laboratory analyses). However, contaminants of emerging concern detected in the laboratory analysis for this study do not appear to be good indicators of human-waste contaminants derived from land-applied biosolids in groundwater or surface-water because the number of detections and concentrations at the background wells and surface-water monitoring sites are similar to or higher than those at wells and monitoring sites adjacent to or downstream from the biosolids land-application fields. The data, analysis, and conclusions associated with this study can be used by regulatory agencies, resource managers, and wastewater-treatment operators to (1) better understand the quantity and characteristics of nutrients, bacteria, metals, and contaminants of emerging concern that are transported away from biosolids land-application fields to surface water and groundwater under current regulations for the purposes of establishing effective total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) and restoring impaired water resources, (2) assess how well existing regulations protect waters of the State and potentially recommend effective changes to regulations or land-application procedures, and (3) establish a framework for developing guidance on effective techniques for monitoring and regulatory enforcement of permitted biosolids land-application fields.

North Carolina↗

Evapotranspiration and water balance of an anthropogenic coastal desert wetland: responses to fire, inflows and salinities

Evapotranspiration (ET) and other water balance components were estimated for Cienega de Santa Clara, an anthropogenic brackish wetland in the delta of the Colorado River in Mexico. The marsh is in the Biosphere Reserve of the Upper Gulf of California and Delta of the Colorado River, and supports a high abundance and diversity of wildlife. Over 95% of its water supply originates as agricultural drain water from the USA, sent for disposal in Mexico. This study was conducted from 2009 to 2011, before, during and after a trial run of the Yuma Desalting Plant in the USA, which will divert water from the wetland and replace it with brine from the desalting operation. The goal was to estimate the main components in the water budget to be used in creating management scenarios for this marsh. We used a remote sensing algorithm to estimate ET from meteorological data and Enhanced Vegetation Index values from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra satellite. ET estimates from the MODIS method were then compared to results from a mass balance of water and salt inflows and outflows over the study period. By both methods, mean annual ET estimates ranged from 2.6 to 3.0 mm d −1 , or 50 to 60% of reference ET (ET o ). Water entered at a mean salinity of 2.6 g L −1 TDS and mean salinity in the wetland was 3.73 g L −1 TDS over the 33 month study period. Over an annual cycle, 54% of inflows supported ET while the rest exited the marsh as outflows; however, in winter when ET was low, up to 90% of the inflows exited the marsh. An analysis of ET estimates over the years 2000–2011 showed that annual ET was proportional to the volume of inflows, but was also markedly stimulated by fires. Spring fires in 2006 and 2011 burned off accumulated thatch, resulting in vigorous growth of new leaves and a 30% increase in peak summer ET compared to non-fire years. Following fires, peak summer ET estimates were equal to ET o , while in non-fire years peak ET was equal to only one-half to two-thirds of ET o . Over annual cycles, estimated ET was always lower than ET o , because T. domingensis is dormant in winter and shades the water surface, reducing direct evaporation. Thus, ET of a Typha marsh is likely to be less than an open water surface under most conditions.

Ecological Engineering↗

Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: NLCD 2001 Tree Canopy

This tabular data set represents the mean percent tree canopy from the Canopy Layer of the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 (LaMotte and Wieczorek, 2010), compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data set represents tree canopy percentage for the conterminous United States for 2001. The Canopy Layer of the National Land Cover Data Set for 2001 was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The MRLC Consortium is a partnership of Federal agencies (http://www.mrlc.gov), consisting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).

Data Series↗

Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: NLCD 2001 Imperviousness

This tabular data set represents the mean percent impervious surface from the Imperviousness Layer of the National Land Cover Dataset 2001, (LaMotte and Wieczorek, 2010), compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data set represents imperviousness for the conterminous United States for 2001. The Imperviousness Layer of the National Land Cover Data Set for 2001 was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The MRLC Consortium is a partnership of Federal agencies (http://www.mrlc.gov), consisting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002;Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).

Data Series↗

Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: NLCD 2001 Land Use and Land Cover

This tabular data set represents the estimated area of land use and land cover from the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 (LaMotte, 2008), compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of the Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data set represents land use and land cover for the conterminous United States for 2001. The National Land Cover Data Set for 2001 was produced through a cooperative project conducted by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The MRLC Consortium is a partnership of Federal agencies (http://www.mrlc.gov), consisting of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5) and the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins.

Data Series↗

Response of Stream Chemistry During Base Flow to Gradients of Urbanization in Selected Locations Across the Conterminous United States, 2002-04

During 2002-2004, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program conducted a study to determine the effects of urbanization on stream water quality and aquatic communities in six environmentally heterogeneous areas of the conterminous United States--Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Denver, Colorado; and Portland, Oregon. This report compares and contrasts the response of stream chemistry during base flow to urbanization in different environmental settings and examines the relation between the exceedance of water-quality benchmarks and the level of urbanization in these areas. Chemical characteristics studied included concentrations of nutrients, dissolved pesticides, suspended sediment, sulfate, and chloride in base flow. In three study areas where the background land cover in minimally urbanized basins was predominantly forested (Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, and Portland), urban development was associated with increased concentrations of nitrogen and total herbicides in streams. In Portland, there was evidence of mixed agricultural and urban influences at sites with 20 to 50 percent urban land cover. In two study areas where agriculture was the predominant background land cover (Milwaukee-Green Bay and Dallas-Fort Worth), concentrations of nitrogen and herbicides were flat or decreasing as urbanization increased. In Denver, which had predominantly shrub/grass as background land cover, nitrogen concentrations were only weakly related to urbanization, and total herbicide concentrations did not show any clear pattern relative to land cover - perhaps because of extensive water management in the study area. In contrast, total insecticide concentrations increased with increasing urbanization in all six study areas, likely due to high use of insecticides in urban applications and, for some study areas, the proximity of urban land cover to the sampling sites. Phosphorus concentrations increased with urbanization only in Portland; in Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham, leachate from septic tanks may have increased phosphorus concentrations in basins with minimal urban development. Concentrations of suspended sediment were only weakly associated with urbanization, probably because this study analyzed only base-flow samples, and the bulk of sediment loads to streams is transported in storm runoff rather than base flow. Sulfate and chloride concentrations increased with increasing urbanization in four study areas (Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Milwaukee-Green Bay, and Portland), likely due to increasing contributions from urban sources of these constituents. The weak relation between sulfate and chloride concentrations and urbanization in Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver was likely due in part to high sulfate and chloride concentrations in ground-water inflow, which would have obscured any pattern of increasing concentration with urbanization. Pesticides often were detected at multiple sites within a study area, so that the pesticide 'signature' for a given study area - the mixtures of pesticides detected, and their relative concentrations, at streams within the study area - tended to show some pesticides as dominant. The type and concentrations of the dominant pesticides varied markedly among sites within a study area. There were differences between pesticide signatures during high and low base-flow conditions in five of the six study areas. Normalization of absolute pesticide concentrations by the pesticide toxicity index (a relative index indicating potential toxicity to aquatic organisms) dramatically changed the pesticide signatures, indicating that the pesticides with the greatest potential to adversely affect cladocerans or fish were not necessarily the pesticides detected at the highest concentrations. In a screening-level assessment, measured contaminant concentrations in individual base-flow water samples were compared with various water-qual

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of conservation practices in the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed, southwestern Oklahoma

The Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed encompasses about 813 square kilometers of rural farm land in Caddo, Custer, and Washita Counties in southwestern Oklahoma. The Fort Cobb Reservoir and six stream segments were identified on the Oklahoma 1998 303(d) list as not supporting designated beneficial uses because of impairment by nutrients, suspended solids, sedimentation, pesticides, and unknown toxicity. As a result, State and Federal agencies, in collaboration with conservation districts and landowners, started conservation efforts in 2001 to decrease erosion and transport of sediments and nutrients to the reservoir and improve water quality in tributaries. The U.S. Department of Agriculture selected the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed in 2003 as 1 of 14 benchmark watersheds under the Conservation Effectiveness Assessment Project with the objective of quantifying the environmental benefits derived from agricultural conservation programs in reducing inflows of sediments and phosphorus to the reservoir. In November 2004, the Biologic, Geographic, Geologic, and Water Disciplines of the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Agricultural Research Service, Grazinglands Research Laboratory in El Reno, Oklahoma, began an interdisciplinary investigation to produce an integrated publication to complement this program. This publication is a compilation of 10 report chapters describing land uses, soils, geology, climate, and water quality in streams and the reservoir through results of field and remote sensing investigations from 2004 to 2007. The investigations indicated that targeting best-management practices to small intermittent streams draining to the reservoir and to the Cobb Creek subwatershed may effectively augment efforts to improve eutrophic to hypereutrophic conditions that continue to affect the reservoir. The three major streams flowing into the reservoir contribute nutrients causing eutrophication, but minor streams draining cultivated fields near the reservoir appeared to be disproportionate contributors of nutrients. Increasing conservation practices on small streams may have a greater effect in mitigating eutrophication in the reservoir than additional installation of such measures on the larger creeks.

Oklahoma↗

Results of a workshop concerning ecological zonation in bottomland hardwoods

Under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulatory responsibilities concerning the discharge of dredged or fill material into the Nation's waters. In addition to its advisory role in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' permit program, EPA has a number of specific authorities, including formulation of the Section 404(b)(1) Guidelines, use of Section 404(c) to prohibit disposal at particular sites, and enforcement actions for unauthorized discharges. A number of recent court cases focus on the geographic scope of Section 404 jurisdiction in potential bottomland hardwood (BLH) wetlands and the nature of landclearing activities in these areas that require a permit under Section 404. Accordingly, EPA needs to establish the scientific basis for implementing its responsibilities under Section 404 in bottomland hardwoods. EPA is approaching this task through a series of workshops designed to provide current scientific information on bottomland hardwoods and to organize that information in a manner pertinent to key questions, including the following. What are the characteristics of bottomland hardwoods (in terms of hydrology, soils, vegetation, fish, wildlife, agricultural potential, and the like) and how can the functions (e.g., flood storage, water quality maintenance, detrital export) that they perform best be quantified? How do perturbations like landclearing, levee construction, and drainage impact the functions that bottomland hardwoods perform and how can these effects best be quantified? And finally, how significant are the impacts and how is their significance likely to change under various management scenarios? The first workshop in this series was held December 3-7, 1984, in St. Francisville, Louisiana. The workshop was attended by over 40 scientists and regulators (see ACKNOWLEDGMENTS section) and facilitated by the editors of this report under an Interagency Agreement between EPA and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The general objective of the workshop was to examine ways in which the structure and function of BLH ecosystems can be characterized and, in particular, to investigate the utility of a conceptual framework developed at a workshop held in Lake Lanier, Georgia, in 1980. In this framework, the transition from aquatic habitats to upland habitats through a BLH ecosystem is divided into six zones based on concomitant variation in the soil moisture regime and associated vegetation (Table 1). The zonation concept is of particular interest to EPA from at least two perspectives. The first is simply as a framework for organizing information. If the zones are discernible in the field, have recognizable characteristics, and perform identifiable functions, they might form a useful basis for tasks such as assessing the impacts of a particular site-specific activity. The second is the potential utility of the zonation concept in identifying the wetland portions of BLH communities. If the zones can be recognized in the field, and if one or more of them can be shown consistently to have wetland characteristics (i.e., perform functions, such as detrital export, often attributed to wetlands), while others do not, then the zones might have utility in identifying areas that fall under the jurisdiction of Section 404. The workshop itself was divided into two parts. The first was a series of papers in which authors described current research and data-synthesis activities in the context of the zonation concept. The second was a series of six workgroups in which participants discussed the zonation concept from the perspective of hydrology, soils, vegetation, fish, wildlife, and ecosystem processes. This report is a compilation of the written material from those workgroups, much of which was produced at the workshop. The formal papers presented in the first part of the workshop have been distributed to participants under separate cover, but are referenced in this report by citations such as: (Jones, workshop presentation).

Report↗

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin↗

Patterns and sources of fecal coliform bacteria in three streams in Virginia, 1999-2000

Surface-water impairment by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the Commonwealth's 1998 303(d) list of impaired waters because of elevated concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria. These fecal coliform-impaired stream segments require the development of total maximum daily load (TMDL) and associated implementation plans, but accurate information on the sources contributing these bacteria usually is lacking. The development of defendable fecal coliform TMDLs and management plans can benefit from reliable information on the bacteria sources that are responsible for the impairment. Bacterial source tracking (BST) recently has emerged as a powerful tool for identifying the sources of fecal coliform bacteria that impair surface waters. In a demonstration of BST technology, three watersheds on Virginia's 1998 303(d) list with diverse land-use practices (and potentially diverse bacteria sources) were studied. Accotink Creek is dominated by urban land uses, Christians Creek by agricultural land uses, and Blacks Run is affected by both urban and agricultural land uses. During the 20-month field study (March 1999?October 2000), water samples were collected from each stream during a range of flow conditions and seasons. For each sample, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH, turbidity, flow, and water temperature were measured. Fecal coliform concentrations of each water sample were determined using the membrane filtration technique. Next, Escherichia coli (E. coli) were isolated from the fecal coliform bacteria and their sources were identified using ribotyping (a method of 'genetic fingerprinting'). Study results provide enhanced understanding of the concentrations and sources of fecal coliform bacteria in these three watersheds. Continuum sampling (sampling along the length of the streams) indicated that elevated concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria (maximum observed concentration of 290,000 colonies/100 milliliters (col/100mL) could occur along the entire length of each stream, and that the samples collected at the downstream monitoring station of each stream were generally representative of the entire upstream reach. Seasonal patterns were observed in the base-flow fecal coliform concentrations of all streams; concentrations were typically highest in the summer and lowest in the winter. Fecal coliform concentrations were lowest during periods of base flow (typically 200?2,000 col/100mL) and increased by 3?4 orders of magnitude during storm events (as high as 700,000 col/100mL). Multiple linear regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform concentrations as a function of streamflow and other water-quality parameters. The source tracking technique provided identification of bacteria contributions from diverse sources that included (but were not limited to) humans, cattle, poultry, horses, dogs, cats, geese, ducks, raccoons, and deer. Seasonal patterns were observed in the contributions of cattle and poultry sources. There were relations between the identified sources of fecal coliform bacteria and the land-use practices within each watershed. There were only minor differences in the distribution of bacteria sources between low-flow periods and high-flow periods. A coupled approach that utilized both a large available source library and a smaller, location-specific source library provided the most success in identifying the unknown E. coli isolates. BST data should provide valuable support and guidance for producing more defendable and scientifically rigorous watershed models. Incorporation of these bacteria-source data into watershed management strategies also should result in the selection of more efficient source-reduction scenarios for improving water quality.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Documentation of a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program study area, California

To better understand the potential effects of restoration flows on existing drainage problems, anticipated as a result of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program (SJRRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), developed a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) of the SJRRP study area that is within 5 miles of the San Joaquin River and adjacent bypass system from Friant Dam to the Merced River. The primary goal of the SJRRP is to reestablish the natural ecology of the river to a degree that restores salmon and other fish populations. Increased flows in the river, particularly during the spring salmon run, are a key component of the restoration effort. A potential consequence of these increased river flows is the exacerbation of existing irrigation drainage problems along a section of the river between Mendota and the confluence with the Merced River. Historically, this reach typically was underlain by a water table within 10 feet of the land surface, thus requiring careful irrigation management and (or) artificial drainage to maintain crop health. The SJRRPGW is designed to meet the short-term needs of the SJRRP; future versions of the model may incorporate potential enhancements, several of which are identified in this report. The SJRRPGW was constructed using the USGS groundwater flow model MODFLOW and was built on the framework of the USGS Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) within which the SJRRPGW model domain is embedded. The Farm Process (FMP2) was used to simulate the supply and demand components of irrigated agriculture. The Streamflow-Routing Package (SFR2) was used to simulate the streams and bypasses and their interaction with the aquifer system. The 1,300-square mile study area was subdivided into 0.25-mile by 0.25-mile cells. The sediment texture of the aquifer system, which was used to distribute hydraulic properties by model cell, was refined from that used in the CVHM to better represent the natural heterogeneity of aquifer-system materials within the model domain. In addition, the stream properties were updated from the CVHM to better simulate stream-aquifer interactions, and water-budget subregions were refined to better simulate agricultural water supply and demand. External boundary conditions were derived from the CVHM. The SJRRPGW was calibrated for April 1961 to September 2003 by using groundwater-level observations from 133 wells and streamflow observations from 19 streamgages. The model was calibrated using public-domain parameter estimation software (PEST) in a semi-automated manner. The simulated groundwater-level elevations and trends (including seasonal fluctuations) and surface-water flow magnitudes and trends reasonably matched observed data. The calibrated model is planned to be used to assess the potential effects of restoration flows on agricultural lands and the relative capabilities of proposed SJRRP actions to reduce these effects.

California↗

Social vulnerability and water insecurity in the western US: A systematic review of framings, indicators, and uncertainty

Water insecurity poses a complex challenge for the western United States. Large populations are exposed and susceptible to physical and social factors that can leave them with precarious access to sufficient water supplies. Consideration of social issues by water managers can help ensure equitable supply. However, how social factors affect water insecurity conditions remains unclear. This paper reviews literature on how social vulnerability influences water insecurity in the western United States. Through a meta-analysis, indicators measuring how dimensions of social vulnerability influence water insecurity were classified and hierarchical clustering was used to characterize the relationships among these vulnerability dimensions for the largest water-users—the agricultural and municipal sectors. The study then assessed uncertainty associated with social vulnerability dimensions and their indicators. There is greatest evidence for the influence of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and exposure. Indicators of these determinants were mainly significant and exacerbated conditions of water insecurity. Evidence for indicators of social dependence and special needs populations was limited, although studies assessing these factors showed significant agreement on their influence on water insecurity. Conceptual framings of social vulnerability and water security determined which indicators were measured, whereas studies of the water-use sectors focused on differing associations of social vulnerability. These findings indicate the importance of recognizing the different contexts posed by water-use sectors and diverse conceptual framings. Further, some determinants such as living conditions remain important but underexplored drivers of a community's experience of water insecurity. Understanding the uncertainty associated with these measures has implications to equitable decision making.

Water Resources Research↗

Use of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate natural streamflow conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington

Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. Management options must be considered that minimize adverse effects on people but meet instream flow needs for fish. This report describes the construction and calibration of the Methow River Basin watershed model and evaluates the accuracy of the model as a predictive tool for assessing the natural instream flow conditions. The term “natural” instream flow is stressed because surface water within the Basin is used for agricultural irrigation through an extensive system of diversions. The USGS Modular Modeling System was used for the watershed modeling component of the Methow River Basin study. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated the natural streamflow. Natural streamflow conditions in the Basin were difficult to calibrate because six of the seven streamflow gaging stations are located below irrigation diversions and few streamflow measurements exist for the study area before the diversions were present. Therefore, limited records of natural streamflow conditions were available and estimations concerning some physical processes could not be quantified. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-99 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well, yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of the total annual runoff as a percentage of measured annual runoff for the 8-year calibration period at seven gaging stations ranged from -33.7 to +30.5 percent with 70 percent of the simulated values within 16 percent. Simulation of water years 1959-99 demonstrated great variability in monthly streamflow statistics. The simulated mean monthly flows for the seven streamflow-gaging stations were an average of 11.5 percent higher for the calibration period (1992-99) than for the entire simulation period (1959-99).

Washington↗

Mitigating land subsidence in the Coachella Valley, California, USA: An emerging success story

Groundwater has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic water supply since the early 1920s in the Coachella Valley, California, USA. Land subsidence, resulting from aquifer-system compaction and groundwater-level declines, has been a concern of the Coachella Valley Water District (CVWD) since the mid-1990s. As a result, the CVWD has implemented several projects to address groundwater overdraft that fall under three categories – groundwater substitution, conservation, and managed aquifer-recharge (MAR). The implementation of three projects in particular – replacing groundwater extraction with surface water from the Colorado River and recycled water (Mid-Valley Pipeline project), reducing water usage by tiered-rate costs, and increasing groundwater recharge at the Thomas E. Levy Groundwater Replenishment Facility – are potentially linked to markedly improved groundwater levels and subsidence conditions, including in some of the historically most overdrafted areas in the southern Coachella Valley. Groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring have tracked the effect these projects have had on the aquifer system. Prior to about 2010, water levels persistently declined, and some had reached historically low levels by 2010. Since about 2010, however, groundwater levels have stabilized or partially recovered, and subsidence has stopped or slowed substantially almost everywhere it previously had been observed; uplift was observed in some areas. Furthermore, results of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar analyses for 1995–2017 indicate that as much as about 0.6 m of subsidence occurred; nearly all of which occurred prior to 2010. Continued monitoring of water levels and subsidence is necessary to inform the CVWD about future mitigation measures. The water management strategies implemented by the CVWD can inform managers of other overdrafted and subsidence-prone basins as they seek solutions to reduce overdraft and subsidence.

California↗

Shoals and valley plugs in the Hatchie River watershed

Agricultural land use and gully erosion have historically contributed more sediment to the streams of the Hatchie River watershed than those streams can carry. In 1970, the main sedimentation problem in the watershed occurred in the tributary flood plains. This problem motivated channelization projects (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970). By the mid-1980's, concern had shifted to sedimentation in the Hatchie River itself where channelized tributaries were understood to contribute much of the sediment. The Soil Conservation Service [Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) since 1996] estimated that 640,000 tons of bedload (sand) accumulates in the Hatchie River each year and identified roughly the eastern two-thirds of the watershed, where loess is thin or absent, as the main source of sand (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986a). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Tennessee River Basin Authority (WTRBA), conducted a study of sediment accumulation in the Hatchie River and its tributaries. This report identifies the types of tributaries and evaluates sediment, shoal formation, and valley-plug problems. The results presented here may contribute to a better understanding of similar problems in West Tennessee and the rest of the southeastern coastal plain. This information also will help the WTRBA manage sedimentation and erosion problems in the Hatchie River watershed. The source of the Mississippi section of the Hatchie River is in the sand hills southwest of Corinth, Mississippi (fig. 1). This section of the Hatchie River flows northward in an artificial drainage canal, gathering water from tributary streams that also are channelized. The drainage canal ends 2 miles south of the Tennessee State line. The Tennessee section of the Hatchie River winds north and west in a meandering natural channel to the Mississippi River. Although most of the Hatchie River tributaries are also drainage canals, the river's main stem has kept most of its natural character. The Hatchie River flows through a wide valley bottom occupied mostly by riverine wetland. Historically, the valley bottom has supported hardwood forests. Since publication of the first Hatchie River report (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970), the channel of the river has become shallower, and flooding has increased (U.S. Department of Agriculture 1986b). These wetter conditions inhibit growth of hardwoods and lead to premature hardwood mortality. The NRCS has predicted that despite efforts to control erosion in the uplands, most of the valley-bottom forest will die. '...swamping may be so prevalent as to change most of the Hatchie River Basin flood plain into a marsh condition, with the only remnants of the present bottomland hardwood timber remaining. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986b). Loss of channel depth has been concentrated in short reaches near tributary mouths. At the mouths of Richland, Porters, Clover, and Muddy Creeks, navigation has become difficult for recreational users (Johnny Carlin, West Tennessee River Basin Authority, oral commun., 1998). As the low-gradient alluvial system of the Hatchie River accumulates sediment, another common outcome has been the formation of valley plugs, areas where 'channels are filled with sediment, and all the additional bedload brought downstream is then spread out over the flood plain until a new channel has been formed' (Happ, 1975). Valley plugs typically form where the slope of a sand-laden tributary decreases downstream, or where the tributary joins its parent stream (Happ and others, 1940; Diehl, 1994, 1997; Smith and Diehl, 2000).

Mississippi, Tennessee↗

Estimation of nitrogen yields and loads from basins draining to Long Island Sound, 1988–98

Monitoring data on total nitrogen concentrations and streamflow were used to estimate annual nonpoint nitrogen loads for 1988?98 at 28 monitoring sites and 26 unmonitored basins that drain to Long Island Sound. The estimated total nitrogen yields at monitoring sites were used with basin characteristics and ancillary data to develop a multiple-linear regression equation to estimate nonpoint nitrogen yields from monitored and unmonitored basins. The estimated nonpoint nitrogen load to Long Island Sound from the basins studied ranged from 21 million pounds in water year 1995 to 50 million pounds in water year 1990. Statistically significant regression variables include time, population density, annual mean runoff (minus wastewater return flow), pointsource nitrogen yields, percentage of basin area classified as urban/recreational grasses, percentage of the basin classified as agricultural land, and the ratio of deciduous to total forest area. Nonpoint nitrogen loads from monitored and unmonitored basins were computed using the regression equation by setting the point-source nitrogen yields and wastewater return variables to zero, and incorporating streamflow information from index stations in or near unmonitored basins. Nonpoint nitrogen load information obtained through use of this equation was summarized by six Long Island Sound management zones. Estimates of nonpoint nitrogen loads from these basins can be improved by additional sampling, and by developing data on nitrogen loads from municipal wastewater-treatment facilities outside of Connecticut, compiling information on annual interbasin diversions of flow, studying instream losses of nitrogen, and analyzing the processing and storage of atmospheric nitrogen in different forest types.

New York↗

Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the relationship between soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration pressures, climatic water deficit integrates the effects of increasing temperature and varying precipitation on basin conditions. At the fine-scale used for these analyses, this variable is an effective indicator of the areas in the landscape that are the most resilient or vulnerable to projected changes. These analyses have shown that regardless of the direction of precipitation change, climatic water deficit is projected to increase, which implies greater water demand to maintain current agricultural resources or land cover. Fine-scale modeling provides a spatially distributed view of locations in the landscape that could prove to be resilient to climatic changes in contrast to locations where vegetation is currently living on the edge of its present-day bioclimatic distribution and, therefore, is more likely to perish or shift to other dominant species under future warming. This type of modeling and the associated analyses provide a useful means for greater understanding of water and land resources, which can lead to better resource management and planning.

California↗