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Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Origin of secondary sulfate minerals on active andesitic stratovolcanoes

Sulfate minerals in altered rocks on the upper flanks and summits of active andesitic stratovolcanoes result from multiple processes. The origin of these sulfates at five active volcanoes, Citlalte??petl (Mexico), and Mount Adams, Hood, Rainier, and Shasta (Cascade Range, USA), was investigated using field observations, petrography, mineralogy, chemical modeling, and stable-isotope data. The four general groups of sulfate minerals identified are: (1) alunite group, (2) jarosite group, (3) readily soluble Fe- and Al-hydroxysulfates, and (4) simple alkaline-earth sulfates such as anhydrite, gypsum, and barite. Generalized assemblages of spatially associated secondary minerals were recognized: (1) alunite+silica??pyrite??kaolinite?? gypsum??sulfur, (2) jarosite+alunite+silica; (3) jarosite+smectite+silica??pyrite, (4) Fe- and Al-hydroxysulfates+silica, and (5) simple sulfates+silica??Al-hydroxysulfates??alunite. Isotopic data verify that all sulfate and sulfide minerals and their associated alteration assemblages result largely from the introduction of sulfur-bearing magmatic gases into meteoric water in the upper levels of the volcanoes. The sulfur and oxygen isotopic data for all minerals indicate the general mixing of aqueous sulfate derived from deep (largely disproportionation of SO2 in magmatic vapor) and shallow (oxidation of pyrite or H2S) sources. The hydrogen and oxygen isotopic data of alunite indicate the mixing of magmatic and meteoric fluids. Some alunite-group minerals, along with kaolinite, formed from sulfuric acid created by the disproportionation of SO2 in a condensing magmatic vapor. Such alunite, observed only in those volcanoes whose interiors are exposed by erosion or edifice collapse, may have ??34S values that reflect equilibrium (350??50 ??C) between aqueous sulfate and H2S. Alunite with ??34S values indicating disequilibrium between parent aqueous sulfate and H2S may form from aqueous sulfate created in higher level low-temperature environments in which SO2 is scrubbed out by groundwater or where H2S is oxidized. Jarosite-group minerals associated with smectite in only slightly altered volcanic rock are formed largely from aqueous sulfate derived from supergene oxidation of hydrothermal pyrite above the water table. Soluble Al- and Fehydroxysulfates form in low-pH surface environments, especially around fumaroles, and from the oxidation of hydrothermal pyrite. Anhydrite/gypsum, often associated with native sulfur and occasionally with small amounts of barite, also commonly form around fumaroles. Some occurrences of anhydrite/gypsum may be secondary, derived from the dissolution and reprecipitation of soluble sulfate. Edifice collapse may also reveal deep veins of anhydrite/gypsum??barite that formed from the mixing of saline fluids with magmatic sulfate and dilute meteoric water. Alteration along structures associated with both hydrothermal and supergene sulfates, as well as the position of paleo-water tables, may be important factors in edifice collapse and resulting debris flows at some volcanoes. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical Geology↗

Observations and recommendations for coordinated calibration activities of government and commercial optical satellite systems

One of the biggest changes in the world of optical remote sensing over the last several years is the sheer increase in the number of sensors that are imaging the Earth in moderate to high spatial resolution. With respect to the calibration of these sensors, they are broadly classified into two types, namely government systems and commercial systems. Because of the differences in the design and mission of these sensor types, calibration approaches are often substantially different. Thus, an opportunity exists to foster discussion between calibration teams for these sensors with the goal of improving overall sensor calibration and data interoperability. The approach used to accomplish this task was a one-day workshop where team members from both government and commercial sensors could share best practices, discuss methods for collaboration and improvement, and make recommendations for continuing activities. Five major recommendations were developed from the event that focused on coordinated activities using pseudo invariant calibration sites (PICS), broader and more consistent communication, collaboration on specific cross-calibration opportunities, developing a reference sensor for all optical systems, and encouraging the coordinated development of surface reflectance products. Workshop participants concluded that regular interactions between these teams could foster a better calibration of all sensor systems and accelerate the improved interoperability of surface products.

Remote Sensing↗

Coseismic and post-seismic signatures of the Sumatra 2004 December and 2005 March earthquakes in GRACE satellite gravity

The GRACE satellite mission has been measuring the Earth's gravity field and its temporal variations since 2002 April. Although these variations are mainly due to mass transfer within the geofluid envelops, they also result from mass displacements associated with phenomena including glacial isostatic adjustment and earthquakes. However, these last contributions are difficult to isolate because of the presence of noise and of geofluid signals, and because of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution (>400 km half-wavelength). In this paper, we show that a wavelet analysis on the sphere helps to retrieve earthquake signatures from GRACE geoid products. Using a wavelet analysis of GRACE geoids products, we show that the geoid variations caused by the 2004 December ( M w = 9.2) and 2005 March ( M w = 8.7) Sumatra earthquakes can be detected. At GRACE resolution, the 2004 December earthquake produced a strong coseismic decrease of the gravity field in the Andaman Sea, followed by relaxation in the area affected by both the Andaman 2004 and the Nias 2005 earthquakes. We find two characteristic timescales for the relaxation, with a fast variation occurring in the vicinity of the Central Andaman ridge. We discuss our coseismic observations in terms of density changes of crustal and upper-mantle rocks, and of the vertical displacements in the Andaman Sea. We interpret the post-seismic signal in terms of the viscoelastic response of the Earth's mantle. The transient component of the relaxation may indicate the presence of hot, viscous material beneath the active Central Andaman Basin.

Geophysical Journal International↗

The modern atmospheric background dust load: Recognition in Central Asian snowpack, and compositional constraints

Dusts in strata of snowpack in the Alai-Pamir range, Kirghizstan, Central Asia, have chemical compositions that are in the same restricted range as those of the dusts found in snowpacks at three other locations: central south Greenland, the St. Elias range (Alaska), and coastal Antarctica, where special-type local dust sources certainly cannot dominate. This similarity at the four widely separated sites appears to indicate that there is a modern atmospheric background dust that is the same on a regional, hemispheric, or global scale. The common compositional range is that of average crustal rock, or of moderately ferromagnesian volcanic rock. It is not that of carbonate, nor highly siliciceous rocks. Previously, the existence of an atmospheric background dust has been postulated only on the basis of its particle size distribution, and only from observations in polar regions. The present study partially determines the chemical composition of the background dust, and confirms its existence in snowpack at four localities worldwide, including the center of the earth's largest continent where dusts of local source have considerable influence.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Electrical conductivity of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system

Electromagnetic geophysical methods image the electrical conductivity of the subsurface. Electrical conductivity is an intrinsic material property that is sensitive to temperature, composition, porosity, volatile and/or melt content, and other physical properties relevant to the solid Earth. Therefore, imaging the electrical structure of the crust and mantle yields valuable information on the physical and chemical state of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system. Here we explore the viability of the passive magnetotelluric (MT) method for constraining upper mantle properties. We approach this problem in four successive steps: 1) review the electrical conductivity behavior of relevant materials; 2) predict the bulk electrical conductivity structure of oceanic and continental lithosphere for a suite of representative physical states; 3) generate synthetic MT data from the conductivity predictions; 4) compare and discuss the conductivity predictions and the synthetic data with select case studies from oceanic and continental settings. Our aim is to clarify the uncertainties associated with drawing inferences from electrical conductivity observations and ultimately to provide a basis for assigning confidence levels to interpretations.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

New constraints on mechanisms of remotely triggered seismicity at Long Valley Caldera

Regional-scale triggering of local earthquakes in the crust by seismic waves from distant main shocks has now been robustly documented for over a decade. Some of the most thoroughly recorded examples of repeated triggering of a single site from multiple, large earthquakes are measured in geothermal fields of the western United States like Long Valley Caldera. As one of the few natural cases where the causality of an earthquake sequence is apparent, triggering provides fundamental constraints on the failure processes in earthquakes. We show here that the observed triggering by seismic waves is inconsistent with any mechanism that depends on cumulative shaking as measured by integrated energy density. We also present evidence for a frequency-dependent triggering threshold. On the basis of the seismic records of 12 regional and teleseismic events recorded at Long Valley Caldera, long-period waves (>30 s) are more effective at generating local seismicity than short-period waves of comparable amplitude. If the properties of the system are stationary over time, the failure threshold for long-period waves is ~0.05 cm/s vertical shaking. Assuming a phase velocity of 3.5 km/s and an elastic modulus of 3.5 x 10 10 Pa, the threshold in terms of stress is 5 kPa. The frequency dependence is due in part to the attenuation of the surface waves with depth. Fluid flow through a porous medium can produce the rest of the observed frequency dependence of the threshold. If the threshold is not stationary with time, pore pressures that are >99.5% of lithostatic and vary over time by a factor of 4 could explain the observations with no frequency dependence of the triggering threshold.

California↗

A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century

Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21 st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Magnetic effects of maghemitization of oceanic crust

Both theoretical considerations and available experimental results indicate that magnetic effects of maghemitization are strongly dependent on the grain size of the originally unoxidized titanomagnetite. Maghemitization of single‐domain titanomagnetite results in a decrease in coercivity, an increase in susceptibility, and a large decrease in Q ratio. Maghemitization of multidomain titanomagnetite results in an increase in coercivity, a decrease in susceptibility, and no large changes in Q ratio. Single‐domain titanomagnetite is probably resistant to the development of a chemical remanent magnetization (CRM), whereas multidomain titanomagnetite can acquire a CRM during maghemitization. The behavior of pseudo‐single‐domain titanomagnetite, which is the main carrier of remanence in submarine extrusive rocks, is investigated by comparing the magnetic properties of the French‐American Mid‐Ocean Undersea Study (FAMOUS) (less than 0.1 m.y. old) and the Leg 37 (3.5 m.y. old) pillow basalts recovered from the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge near 37°N. Combining electron microprobe analyses, Curie temperature measurements, and cell edge determinations, we find that the FAMOUS rocks are already oxidized ( z = 0.38), possibly as a result of some high‐temperature maghemitization during cooling of the magma. Comparison with the more highly oxidized ( z = 0.7) Leg 37 pillow basalts indicates that low‐temperature maghemitization of such rocks does not result in appreciable changes of coercivity and susceptibility, although the Q ratio does decrease and CRM seems to be acquired. Such a CRM could account for the anomalously low magnetic inclinations observed at most of the Leg 37 sites.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

An exploration of the relative influence of physical models for Omori’s law

Omori’s law states that the rate of aftershocks decays as a function of inverse time. There are multiple physical explanations that we reduce into a nonlinear mixed effects relation of three terms: (1) a Rate/State expression that can account for static/dynamic and viscoelastic triggering caused directly by the mainshock, (2) a fluid diffusion triggering term, and (3) a randomized secondary triggering (cascade) term. We fit free physical-model parameters to an observed aftershock sequence through two nonlinear regression methods to find the relative contributions of physics-based models in an observed aftershock sequence. Results from both methods show that Rate/State models overpredict aftershock rates by ∼0–30%. Secondary aftershocks cause a net negative contribution (seismicity rate reduction that corrects overprediction by other terms) ranging between ∼0 and 30%. All regression solutions yield negative secondary triggering contributions without being guided to do so. A physical explanation for this is that aftershock occurrence relieves stress from the crust, ultimately causing the sequence to extinguish itself. Fluid diffusion triggering contributions range from ∼0 to 20%. Diffusion processes are observed to be shorter in time than the full duration of an aftershock sequence and they are also spatially limited, diminishing their influence. Our results apply to an aftershock decay curve from the 2016 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, meaning that our specific results may not be general. Our primary conclusion is that any one physical model cannot alone fit the observed sequence as well as the combination of three we investigated.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

High-latitude dust in the Earth system

Natural dust is often associated with hot, subtropical deserts, but significant dust events have been reported from cold, high latitudes. This review synthesizes current understanding of high-latitude (≥50°N and ≥40°S) dust source geography and dynamics and provides a prospectus for future research on the topic. Although the fundamental processes controlling aeolian dust emissions in high latitudes are essentially the same as in temperate regions, there are additional processes specific to or enhanced in cold regions. These include low temperatures, humidity, strong winds, permafrost and niveo-aeolian processes all of which can affect the efficiency of dust emission and distribution of sediments. Dust deposition at high latitudes can provide nutrients to the marine system, specifically by contributing iron to high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll oceans; it also affects ice albedo and melt rates. There have been no attempts to quantify systematically the expanse, characteristics, or dynamics of high-latitude dust sources. To address this, we identify and compare the main sources and drivers of dust emissions in the Northern (Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Iceland) and Southern (Antarctica, New Zealand, and Patagonia) Hemispheres. The scarcity of year-round observations and limitations of satellite remote sensing data at high latitudes are discussed. It is estimated that under contemporary conditions high-latitude sources cover >500,000 km2 and contribute at least 80–100 Tg yr−1 of dust to the Earth system (~5% of the global dust budget); both are projected to increase under future climate change scenarios.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

The international seismological observing period in Africa

The International Seismological Observing Period (ISOP) is a specific time interval designated for enhanced international cooperation in the collection and dissemination of observatory measurements from the global seismographic network. The primary purpose of the ISOP is to strengthen the international infrastructure that supports current seismological practice and increase the cooperation among nations that operate seismological observatories. Measurements, reported by the existing global network and compiled by agencies such as the International Seismological Centre (ISC), are providing new information about earthquakes and the structure of the Earth of fundamental importance to the Earth sciences. However, these data represent but a small fraction of the information contained in the seismograms. One of the goals of the ISOP is to collect improved sets of data. In particular, the measurement and reporting of later-arriving phases, during a fixed ISOP period, from earthquakes selected for detailed observation by the cooperating stations will be encouraged. The use of advanced, digital instrumentation provides an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing the methods of seismogram interpretation and seismic parameter extraction, by the implementation of digital processing methods at seismic observatories worldwide. It must be ensured that this new information will be available to the entire seismological community. It is believed that this purpose is best served with an ISOP that promotes increased on-site processing at digital stations in Africa and elsewhere. Improvements in seismology require truly international cooperation and the educational aspects of seismological practice form one of the goals of the ISOP. Thus, workshops will be needed in Africa to train analysts in ISOP procedures and to introduce them to modern techniques and applications of the data. Participants will, thus, benefit from theoretical results and practical experience that are of direct relevance to their own work.

Tectonophysics↗

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology↗

Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon

Over the period of instrumental records, precipitation maximum in the headwaters of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has been dominated by winter snow, with a substantial degree of interannual variability linked to Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. High-elevation snowpack is an important water storage that is carefully observed in order to meet increasing water demands in the greater semi-arid region. The purpose here is to consider Rocky Mountain water trends during the Holocene when known changes in earth's energy balance were caused by precession-driven insolation variability. Changes in solar insolation are thought to have influenced the variability and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North American Monsoon and the seasonal precipitation balance between rain and snow at upper elevations. Holocene records are presented from two high elevation lakes located in northwest Colorado that document decade-to-century scale precipitation seasonality for the past ~ 7000 years. Comparisons with sub-tropical records of ENSO indicate that the snowfall-dominated precipitation maxima developed ~ 3000 and 4000 years ago, coincident with evidence for enhanced ENSO/PDO dynamics. During the early-to-mid Holocene the records suggest a more monsoon affected precipitation regime with reduced snowpack, more rainfall, and net moisture deficits that were more severe than recent droughts. The Holocene perspective of precipitation indicates a far broader range of variability than that of the past century and highlights the non-linear character of hydroclimate in the U.S. west.

Colorado↗

Post-rifting stress relaxation at the divergent plate boundary in northeast Iceland

Interaction of the elastic lithosphere with the underlying anelastic asthenosphere causes strain to propagate along the Earth's surface in a diffusion-like manner following tectonism at plate boundaries. This process transfers stress between adjacent tectonic segments and influences the temporal tectonic pattern along a plate boundary. Observations of such strain transients have been rare, and have hitherto been confined to strike-slip and underthrusting plate boundaries 1 . Here we report the observation of a strain transient at the divergent (spreading) plate boundary in Iceland. A Global Positioning System survey undertaken a decade after an episode of dyke intrusion accompanying several metres of crustal spreading reveals a spatially varying strain field with the expected diffusion-pulse shape and an amplitude three times greater than the 5.7 cm that would be expected from the average spreading rate 2 . A simple one-dimensional model with a thin elastic layer overlying a viscous layer fits the data well and yields a stress diffusivity of 1.1 á±0.3 m 2 s −1 . Combined with struc-tural information from magnetotelluric measurements, this implies a viscosity of 0.3−2 × 10 19 Pa s—a value comparable to that derived for Iceland from post-glacial rebound 23 , but low compared with estimates for mantle viscosity obtained elsewhere 3 .

Nature↗

Hydraulic, geochemical, and thermal monitoring of an aquifer system in the vicinity of Mammoth Lakes, Mono County, California, 2015–17

Since 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, Mono County, Ormat Technologies, Inc., and the Mammoth Community Water District to design and implement a groundwater-monitoring program for the proposed Casa Diablo IV Geothermal Power Project in Long Valley Caldera, California, to characterize baseline groundwater-level, water-temperature, and water-chemistry conditions at dedicated monitoring wells and municipal supply wells. The publicly available data and the analyses provided here represent quality-assured and peer-reviewed information to help with the management of the thermal and non-thermal water resources beneath and in the vicinity of the town of Mammoth Lakes, California. The methods of data collection for continuous water levels and quarterly water-temperature profiles for two 600-foot-deep monitoring wells during 2016 through 2017 are discussed. Also discussed are the methods of water-sample collection and characterizations of the water chemistry in numerous wells in the multilayered aquifer system beneath Mammoth Lakes. Additionally, the methodology used to develop digital (mathematical) filters to remove or reduce the effects of barometric pressure and solid Earth tides on the continuous water-level records is discussed. Digitally filtered water levels for a 2017 flow test of a deep geothermal production well are described, and various aquifer responses observed during the flow test are discussed. These are further considered in a companion evaluation of potential physical and chemical influences on the water-level data collected during the flow test. The digitally filtered water-level data indicated that some hydraulic communication exists between the deep geothermal aquifer and shallow groundwater aquifer at the location of the flow test, northeast of Mammoth Lakes. Groundwater-chemistry data from three wells indicated that shallow groundwater naturally mixes with a small component of geothermal water along the northern periphery of the shallow aquifer system at Mammoth Lakes.

California↗

Normal electromagnetic variations, tectono-magnetic effects, earthquakes, and animal behavior

The temporal and spatial variations of the geomagnetic field at the earth's surface can be as much as 100 gammas/minute and 200 gammas/km, respectively. Tectono-magnetic signals from the most likely physical, mechanisms are expected not to exceed a few gammas. Observations along the San Andreas fault of earthquake related tectonomagnetic signals indicate maximum signals of less than four gammas, while similar observations on active volcanoes indicate a few tens of gammas. An explanation of the origin of anomalous animal behavior in terms of a magnetic source implies either a capability to discriminate against the temporal and spatial field variations or the existence of some as yet unknown and unobserved localized source with larger anomaly amplitudes.

Open-File Report↗

Phosphatic zone in the lower part of the Maquoketa Shale in northeastern Iowa

The basal beds of the Maquoketa Shale in northeastern Iowa include a basal silty phosphorite layer that is thickest near Dubuque. In Clayton County, Iowa, the bed averages about 1 foot thick (30 centimeters) and contains 22.5 percent P 2 0 5 . Phosphatic dolomite that is 8 10 feet (2.4 3 meters) thick and occurs higher in the Maquoketa was observed only in Dubuque County. The thickest and most phosphatic rock in the Maquoketa appears to be coextensive with dark-brown shale, which also occurs mainly in Dubuque County. Rare-earth content of the phosphatic rock decreases southeastward across the area, ranging from 2,000 to about 120 parts per million. The thin low-grade phosphorite is typical of the platform-type phosphorite facies and may be' genetically related to the emergence of the Ozark uplift as an island late in the Ordovician period.

Iowa↗