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Satellite image atlas of glaciers

The US Geological Survey has initiated a project to prepare a satellite image atlas of glaciers with the cooperation of a number of US and international organizations. The atlas will include the geographical distribution of glaciers as well as topics of glaciology and related environmental phenomena using Landsat, NOAA and other satellite data. The primary objectives of the atlas are to provide an inventory of available images of extant glaciers, to demonstrate their scientific value and to serve as the basis of Landsat image maps of glacierized areas.

Antarctica, Svalbard↗

Geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Much of the southeastern United States, including all of Florida, is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains which have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks that underlie these coastal plains in Florida, here collectively referred to as “basement,” are known only from a relatively small number of boreholes. This scientific investigations map presents an interpretation of the basement geology in a 1:1,000,000-scale subsurface geologic map with supporting text, data, and figures. The subsurface mapping methodology integrates petrographic, geochronological, thermochronological, geochemical, and mineralogical analyses of drill cores and cuttings in the context of regional geophysical data. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks of Florida consist of the Gondwanan (West African) Suwannee terrane which was accreted to Laurentia during the Alleghanian orogeny and subsequently intruded by Permian granites, superposed by early Mesozoic rift basins, and partially overlain by bimodal Jurassic volcanic rocks. The younger basement components, specifically the Southwest Florida volcanic province, North Florida tholeiites, early Mesozoic rift basins, and Alleghanian granitoids, have correlative and contemporaneous units throughout the Appalachian orogen. In contrast, Florida’s older basement rocks, including Paleozoic siliciclastic strata of the Suwannee basin, North Florida volcanic series, Osceola and Gaskin intrusive complexes, and the St. Lucie Metamorphic Complex, have neither surface exposures nor unequivocal correlates. Major structures include early Mesozoic normal faults and northwest-striking transfer zones such as the Jay fault. Many of these faults define the boundaries of subbasins within the South Georgia rift system. Top-of-basement structure contours show gentle arches and embayments that are also recognized in overlying coastal plain strata.

Florida↗

The cartographic and scientific application of ERTS-1 imagery in polar regions

The first Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS-1), launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in. July 1972, is providing valuable data for investigations of the most inaccessible and hostile regions of the Earth the Arctic and Antarctic. ERTS images and map products derived from them offer a whole new dimension in source material for multidiscipline investigations in the earth sciences. For the first time scientists can view synoptic, repetitive scenes of the polar regions in four spectral bands. Ongoing experiments funded by NASA and conducted in the U.S. Geological Survey have demonstrated the feasibility of revising coastlines on maps of Antarctica, detected gross changes in the northern limits of the three largest ice shelves in the world, and led to the discovery of uncharted mountain ranges.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

Field comparison of five in situ turbidity sensors

Five commercially available turbidity sensors were field tested by the U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Instrumentation Facility for accuracy and data comparability. The tested sensors were the Xylem EXO (EXO), the Hach Solitax sc (Solitax), the In Situ Aqua TROLL sensor installed onto a TROLL 600 sonde (TROLL 600), the Campbell Scientific OBS501 (OBS501), and the Observator ANALITE NEP–5000 (NEP–5000). The sensors were deployed at Pearl River at National Space Technology Laboratories Station, Mississippi (U.S. Geological Survey site 02492620), and were serviced weekly. In addition to the five in situ turbidity sensors, corresponding discrete samples were collected and analyzed during the evaluation on a calibrated Hach 2100N benchtop turbidimeter. The OBS501 malfunctioned early in the evaluation and eventually failed, resulting in few data from the sensor. During this study, the four remaining sensors (minus the OBS501) changed similarly throughout the field test; however, sensor data from the EXO consistently demonstrated lower results than the Solitax, TROLL 600, and NEP–5000, possibly because of the variation in raw signal processing among manufacturers. Results from a single factor analysis of variance test and a Tukey Honestly Significant Difference test verified the low bias observed in the EXO data and indicated there was a significant difference between the EXO data and data from the Solitax, TROLL 600, and NEP–5000 but an insignificant difference among the data when the Solitax, TROLL 600, and NEP–5000 were compared to each other.

Mississippi↗

A novel automatic phenology learning (APL) method of training sample selection using multiple datasets for time-series land cover mapping

The long record of Landsat imagery, which is the cornerstone of Earth observation, provides an opportunity to monitor land use and land cover (LULC) change and understand the interactions between the climate and earth system through time. A few change detection algorithms such as Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) have been developed to utilize all available Landsat images for change detection and characterization at local or global scales. However, the reliable, rapid, and reproducible collection of training samples have become a challenge for time series land cover classification at a large scale. To meet the challenge, we proposed an automatic phenology learning (APL) method with the assumption that the temporal profiles of samples within the same land cover type are the same or similar at a local scale to generate evenly distributed training samples automatically. We designed the method to build land cover patterns for each category based on consensus samples derived from multiple existing scientific datasets including LANDFIRE's (LF) Existing Vegetation Type (EVT), USGS National Land Cover Database (NLCD), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and National Wetlands Inventory (NWI). Then we calculated the Time-Weighted Dynamic Time Warping (twDTW) distance between any undefined samples and land cover patterns in the same geographical region as prior knowledge. Finally, we selected the optimal land cover category for each undefined sample from the land cover products based on the designed criteria iteratively using the twDTW distance as an indicator. The method was applied in the footprint of 10 selected Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) tiles in the eastern and western conterminous United States (CONUS) to produce annual land cover maps from 1985 to 2017. The accuracy assessment and visual comparison revealed that the APL method can generate reliable training samples without any manual interpretation, producing better land cover results especially for the grass/shrub and wetland land cover classes. Applying the APL method, the overall accuracy of the annual land cover maps was improved by 2% over the accuracy of Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) Collection 1.0 Science Products in the research regions. Our results also indicate that the APL method provides an approach for best use of different land cover products and meets the requirement of intensive sampling for training data collection.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

Fact Sheet↗

Evaluation and synthesis of the Yolo Bypass fish monitoring program

The Yolo Bypass is the largest functional remnant floodplain of the Sacramento River, providing benefits to aquatic taxa of the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter, Bay-Delta). Because of the Yolo Bypass’s vital role in flood control and its ecological effects, the California Department of Water Resources started the Yolo Bypass Fish Monitoring Program (YBFMP) to monitor the aquatic ecology of the floodplain. Here, we present a scientific evaluation of the monitoring program to assess the efficacy and efficiency of the program in meeting its objective of collecting biological data to understand the ecological role the Yolo Bypass plays in the larger Bay-Delta. We used a multivariate assessment of floodplain flow to classify flood events (no flood, intense, early, late) and water years (low, average, high). To assess efficacy, we used a null hypothesis approach to determine if the YBFMP could distinguish variability in measured constituents (water quality and nutrient concentrations; phytoplankton, zooplankton, drift invertebrates, and fish communities; and densities of Chinook salmon [ Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ], Sacramento splittail [ Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ], and prickly sculpin [ Cottus asper ]) across different flood regime classifications. To assess efficiency, we used a data subsampling approach to quantify the amount of data needed to reach similar conclusions to analyses that used the entire dataset. Regarding efficacy, we concluded that the YBFMP is generally effective at identifying variability across various spatial and temporal scales (including flood regimes). Regarding efficiency, we concluded that reduced sampling effort would likely result in similar conclusions, enabling program managers to identify sites or periods that do not provide data essential to meeting program objectives. Our evaluation of the YBFMP indicated where data variability might limit mechanistic inference (particularly for phytoplankton and zooplankton), thus indicating that a series of targeted studies may be a prerequisite for further analysis. This evaluation has also identified areas where existing sampling may not be providing additional informational value, allowing for reallocation of effort to address management concerns.

California↗

Hazard information management during the autumn 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens volcano, Washington

The 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens quickly caught the attention of government agencies as well as the international news media and the public. Immediate concerns focused on a repeat of the catastrophic landslide and blast event of May 18, 1980, which remains a vivid memory for many individuals. Within several days of the onset of accelerating seismicity, media inquiries increased exponentially. Personnel at the U.S. Geological Survey, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and the Gifford Pinchot National Forest soon handled hundreds of press inquiries and held several press briefings per day. About one week into the event, a Joint Information Center was established to help maintain a consistent hazard message and to provide a centralized information source about volcanic activity, hazards, area closures, and media briefings. Scientists, public-affairs specialists, and personnel from emergency-management, health, public-safety, and land-management agencies answered phones, helped in press briefings and interviews, and managed media access to colleagues working on science and safety issues. For scientists, in addition to managing the cycle of daily fieldwork, challenges included (1) balancing accurate interpretations of data under crisis conditions with the need to share information quickly, (2) articulating uncertainties for a variety of volcanic scenarios, (3) minimizing scientific jargon, and (4) frequently updating and effectively distributing talking points. Success of hazard information management during a volcanic crisis depends largely on scientists’ clarity of communication and thorough preplanning among interagency partners. All parties must commit to after-action evaluation and improvement of communication plans, incorporating lessons learned during each event.

Washington↗

International cooperation in water resources

Advancements in hydrology proceeded slowly until the late 1800's when new ventures created a surge of interest and accomplishment. Progress waned again until the middle 20th century when an International Hydrological Decade was conceived, eventually receiving wide multinational support from governmental agencies and nongovernmental institutions. Organized by UNESCO, the Decade program was launched January 1, 1965. Participation included 107 nations, six United Nations agencies, and more than a dozen international scientific organizations. The initial program emphasized scientific research, and international cooperation; the second half of the Decade, emphasized technical assistance and technology transfer, largerly through education, training and demonstration. The success of the Decade led to the establishment of the International Hydrological Program, again under the aegis of UNESCO, to continue the work of the Decade indefinitely. The five major program activities, now involving about 90 countries and several international organizations, include: the scientific program, the promotion of education and training, the enhancement of information exchange, support of technical assistance, and the enlargement of regional cooperation. A significant amount of activity related to hydrological data networks and forecasting is carried on in an Operational Hydrology Programme by the WMO, chiefly through its Commission for Hydrology. Other international governmental organizations with a strong interest in water include the UN, the UN Development Programme, the FAO, the WHO, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Environment Programme, the International Standardization Organization, and developmental institutions such as the World Bank. The specialized interests of researchers outside of the governmental structure, are met through association in various scientific and technical organizations which are world wide in scope and membership. Notwithstanding a sometimes bewildering variety of organizations, there certainly exists, for any nation, group, or individual, a demonstrated mechanism for almost any conceivable form of international cooperation in hydrology and water resources. ?? 1979 Akademische Verlagsgesellschaft.

GeoJournal↗

A review of the exploration, discovery, and characterization of highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained reservoir systems along the Eastern Continental Margin of India

The analysis of 3-D seismic data has become one of the most powerful ways to identify sand-rich gas hydrate reservoir systems and to directly identify highly concentrated gas hydrate prospects. Scientific drilling programs have shown that the occurrence of highly concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained, sand-rich, reservoir systems has a significant impact on the physical properties of sediments, allowing gas hydrates to be “directly detected” by conventional seismic analysis techniques. One of the most diagnostic responses of a gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoir is that of a high-velocity sedimentary section and an associated high-amplitude seismic response with a reflection polarity matching that of the seafloor. Knowledge of this physical relationship guided the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) in their pre-drill site review and selection effort along the eastern continental margin of India in 2016. Within the planning, operational and post-operational data analysis phases of the NGHP-02 Expedition, scientists relied heavily on the analyses of the (1) pre-expedition acquired 3-D seismic data from offshore India, (2) downhole logging data acquired during NGHP-02 and (3) core samples and data obtained from NGHP-02 conventional- and pressure-cores to identify gas hydrates and assess the geologic controls on the formation and stability of these accumulations. Data analysis has confirmed the presence of extensive sand-rich depositional systems throughout the deepwater portions of the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins in the Bay of Bengal. Two areas of the Krishna-Godavari Basin contain substantial gas hydrate accumulations in sand-rich systems, representing candidate sites for future potential energy exploitation.

Bay of Bengal, Krishna-Godavari Basin, Mahanadi Ba↗

Geologic Map of the Mylitta Fluctus Quadrangle (V-61), Venus

INTRODUCTION The Magellan Mission The Magellan spacecraft orbited Venus from August 10, 1990, until it plunged into the Venusian atmosphere on October 12, 1994. Magellan Mission objectives included: (1) improving knowledge of the geological processes, surface properties, and geologic history of Venus by analysis of surface radar characteristics, topography, and morphology, and (2) improving the knowledge of the geophysics of Venus by analysis of Venusian gravity. The Magellan spacecraft carried a 12.6-cm radar system to map the surface of Venus. The transmitter and receiver systems were used to collect three data sets: (1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the surface, (2) passive microwave thermal emission observations, and (3) measurements of the backscattered power at small angles of incidence, which were processed to yield altimetric data. Radar imaging, altimetric, and radiometric mapping of the Venusian surface was done in mission cycles 1, 2, and 3 from September 1990 until September 1992. Ninety-eight percent of the surface was mapped with radar resolution on the order of 120 meters. The SAR observations were projected to a 75-m nominal horizontal resolution, and these full-resolution data compose the image base used in geologic mapping. The primary polarization mode was horizontal-transmit, horizontal-receive (HH), but additional data for selected areas were collected for the vertical polarization sense. Incidence angles varied between about 20? and 45?. High resolution Doppler tracking of the spacecraft took place from September 1992 through October 1994 (mission cycles 4, 5, 6). Approximately 950 orbits of high-resolution gravity observations were obtained between September 1992 and May 1993 while Magellan was in an elliptical orbit with a periapsis near 175 km and an apoapsis near 8,000 km. An additional 1,500 orbits were obtained following orbit-circularization in mid-1993. These data exist as a 75? by 75? harmonic field.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Water-level altitudes 2007 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2006 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

This report, done in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Fort Bend Subsidence District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston, Texas, region. The report contains 18 sheets and 17 tables: 3 sheets are maps showing current-year (2007) water-level altitudes for each aquifer, respectively; 3 sheets are maps showing 1-year (2006-07) water-level changes for each aquifer, respectively; 3 sheets are maps showing 5-year (2002-07) water-level changes for each aquifer, respectively; 4 sheets are maps showing long-term (1990-2007 and 1977-2007) water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, respectively; 1 sheet is a map showing long-term (2000-2007) water-level change for the Jasper aquifer; 2 sheets are revisions of previously published water-level-altitude maps for the Jasper aquifer for 2000 and 2002, respectively; 1 sheet is a map showing site locations of borehole extensometers; and 1 sheet comprises graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the sites from 1973 or later through 2006, respectively. Tables listing the data used to construct the aquifer-data maps and the compaction graphs also are included.

Texas↗

Louisiana ground-water map no. 22: Generalized potentiometric surface of the Amite aquifer and the "2,800-foot" sand of the Baton Rouge area in southeastern Louisiana, June-August 2006

The Amite aquifer and the “2,800-foot” sand of the Baton Rouge area (hereafter referred to as the “2,800-foot” sand) are principal sources of fresh ground water in southeastern Louisiana. Both the Amite aquifer and the “2,800-foot” sand are part of the Jasper equivalent aquifer system. The Amite aquifer is heavily pumped in the Bogalusa area, and the “2,800-foot” sand is one of the most heavily pumped aquifers in East Baton Rouge Parish. The Baton Rouge fault zone, which acts as a barrier to flow, trends approximately west-northwest from a point just south of The Rigolets through southern West Baton Rouge Parish, and is the approximate southern limit of freshwater in the aquifers. For the purposes of this report, freshwater is defined as water having less than 250 milligrams per liter (mg/L) of chloride, and most of the water withdrawals described in this report were assumed to be fresh. In 2005, about 18 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) was withdrawn from the Amite aquifer, primarily for public-supply use (8.4 Mgal/d) and industrial use (9.6 Mgal/d). During this same period, about 32 Mgal/d was withdrawn from the “2,800-foot” sand, primarily for public-supply use (13 Mgal/d) and industrial use (19 Mgal/d). Public-supply and industrial withdrawals from the Amite aquifer and the “2,800-foot” sand are listed in table 1. According to data from the Louisiana State Census Data Center, some of the largest population increases in the State during the period 1990 to 2000 occurred in St. Tammany (32.4 percent), Livingston (30.2 percent), and Tangipahoa (17.4 percent) Parishes. These population increases have been accompanied by increased withdrawals of ground water during the same period: 40 percent in St. Tammany Parish, 63 percent in Livingston Parish, and 35 percent in Tangipahoa Parish. An increase in population in these parishes is expected from population displacement due to damages from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita crossing the Louisiana coast in August and September of 2005. Additional information about ground-water flow and effects of increased withdrawals on water levels in the Amite aquifer and the “2,800-foot” sand is needed to assess ground-water-development potential and to protect this resource. To meet this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, began a study in 2005 to determine water levels, flow direction, and water-level trends for the Amite aquifer and “2,800-foot” sand. This report presents data and a map that describe the generalized potentiometric surface of the Amite aquifer and “2,800-foot” sand in southeastern Louisiana. Graphs of water levels in selected wells and a table of withdrawals from the Amite aquifer and “2,800-foot” sand show historical changes in water levels and water use. The generalized potentiometric-surface map illustrates the water levels and ground-water flow directions for June–August 2006. These data are on file at the USGS office in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Louisiana↗

Surficial geology and stratigraphy of Pleistocene Lake Manix, San Bernardino County, California

Pluvial Lake Manix and its surrounding drainage basin, in the central Mojave Desert of California, has been a focus of paleoclimate, surficial processes, and neotectonic studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) since about 2004. The USGS initiated studies of Lake Manix deposits to improve understanding of the paleoclimatic record and the shifts in atmospheric circulation that controlled precipitation in the Mojave Desert. Until approximately 25,000 years ago, Lake Manix was the terminus of the Mojave River, which drains northeasterly from the San Bernardino Mountains; the river currently terminates in the Soda Lake and Silver Lake playas. Pleistocene Lake Manix occupied several subbasins at its maximum extent. This map focuses on the extensive exposures created by incision of the Mojave River and its tributaries into the interbedded lacustrine and alluvial deposits within the central (Cady) and northeastern (Afton) subbasins of Lake Manix, and extends from the head of Afton Canyon to Manix Wash. The map illuminates the geomorphic development and depositional history of the lake and alluvial fans within the active tectonic setting of the eastern California shear zone, especially interactions with the left-lateral Manix fault. Lake Manix left an extraordinarily detailed but complex record of numerous transgressive-regressive sequences separated by desiccation and deposition of fan, eolian, and fluvial deposits, and punctuated by tectonic movements and a catastrophic flood that reconfigured the lake basin. Through careful observation of the intercalated lacustrine and fan sequences and by determining the precise elevations of unit contacts, this record was decoded to understand the response of the lake and river system to the interplay of climatic, geomorphic, and tectonic forces. These deposits are exposed in steep badland topography. Mapping was carried out mostly at scales of 1:12,000, although the map is presented at 1:24,000 scale, and employs custom unit nomenclature, with multiple subdivided lacustrine and alluvial fan units. In addition, many important units are very thin and cannot be mapped separately, or are covered by thin eolian sand, so these are commonly portrayed as stacks of units or combined units. These details are more accurately portrayed in the measured sections that accompany the map. Altitudes of many contacts were obtained using differentially corrected Global Positioning System (GPS) or, in some cases, lidar (light detection and ranging) data.

California↗

Bathymetric maps, surface areas, and storage capacities of Council Grove Lake and Marion Reservoir, Kansas, and Pine Creek Lake, Oklahoma, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, completed high-resolution multibeam bathymetric surveys to compute new elevation-area-capacity tables for Council Grove Lake and Marion Reservoir, Kansas, and Pine Creek Lake, Oklahoma. Elevation-area-capacity tables identify the relation between the water-surface elevation, surface area, and storage capacity of the lake. The surface areas and storage capacities of each lake were computed from bathymetric surfaces combining multibeam echo sounder data collected in 2024 and light detection and ranging point-cloud data collected in 2016 and 2018.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

An evaluation of selected extraordinary floods in the United States reported by the U.S. Geological Survey and implications for future advancement of flood science

Thirty flood peak discharges determine the envelope curve of maximum floods documented in the United States by the U.S. Geological Survey. These floods occurred from 1927 to 1978 and are extraordinary not just in their magnitude, but in their hydraulic and geomorphic characteristics. The reliability of the computed discharge of these extraordinary floods was reviewed and evaluated using current (2007) best practices. Of the 30 flood peak discharges investigated, only 7 were measured at daily streamflow-gaging stations that existed when the flood occurred, and 23 were measured at miscellaneous (ungaged) sites. Methods used to measure these 30 extraordinary flood peak discharges consisted of 21 slope-area measurements, 2 direct current-meter measurements, 1 culvert measurement, 1 rating-curve extension, and 1 interpolation and rating-curve extension. The remaining four peak discharges were measured using combinations of culvert, slope-area, flow-over-road, and contracted-opening measurements. The method of peak discharge determination for one flood is unknown. Changes to peak discharge or rating are recommended for 20 of the 30 flood peak discharges that were evaluated. Nine floods retained published peak discharges, but their ratings were downgraded. For two floods, both peak discharge and rating were corrected and revised. Peak discharges for five floods that are subject to significant uncertainty due to complex field and hydraulic conditions, were re-rated as estimates. This study resulted in 5 of the 30 peak discharges having revised values greater than about 10 percent different from the original published values. Peak discharges were smaller for three floods (North Fork Hubbard Creek, Texas; El Rancho Arroyo, New Mexico; South Fork Wailua River, Hawaii), and two peak discharges were revised upward (Lahontan Reservoir tributary, Nevada; Bronco Creek, Arizona). Two peak discharges were indeterminate because they were concluded to have been debris flows with peak discharges that were estimated by an inappropriate method (slope-area) (Big Creek near Waynesville, North Carolina; Day Creek near Etiwanda, California). Original field notes and records could not be found for three of the floods, however, some data (copies of original materials, records of reviews) were available for two of these floods. A rating was assigned to each of seven peak discharges that had no rating. Errors identified in the reviews include misidentified flow processes, incorrect drainage areas for very small basins, incorrect latitude and longitude, improper field methods, arithmetic mistakes in hand calculations, omission of measured high flows when developing rating curves, and typographical errors. Common problems include use of two-section slope-area measurements, poor site selection, uncertainties in Manning’s n -values, inadequate review, lost data files, and insufficient and inadequately described high-water marks. These floods also highlight the extreme difficulty in making indirect discharge measurements following extraordinary floods. Significantly, none of the indirect measurements are rated better than fair, which indicates the need to improve methodology to estimate peak discharge. Highly unsteady flow and resulting transient hydraulic phenomena, two-dimensional flow patterns, debris flows at streamflow-gaging stations, and the possibility of disconnected flow surfaces are examples of unresolved problems not well handled by current indirect discharge methodology. On the basis of a comprehensive review of 50,000 annual peak discharges and miscellaneous floods in California, problems with individual flood peak discharges would be expected to require a revision of discharge or rating curves at a rate no greater than about 0.10 percent of all floods. Many extraordinary floods create complex flow patterns and processes that cannot be adequately documented with quasi-steady, uniform one-dimensional analyses. These floods are most accurately described by multidimensional flow analysis. Within the U.S. Geological Survey, new approaches are needed to collect more accurate data for floods, particularly extraordinary floods. In recent years, significant progress has been made in instrumentation for making direct discharge measurements. During this same period, very little has been accomplished in advancing methods to improve indirect discharge measurements. Greater use of paleoflood hydrology could fill many shortcomings of U.S. Geological Survey flood science today, such as enhanced knowledge of flood frequency. Additional links among flood runoff, storm structure, and storm motion would provide more insight to flood hazards. Significant improvement in understanding flood processes and characteristics could be gained from linking radar rainfall estimation and hydrologic modeling. Additionally, more could be done to provide real-time flood-hazard warnings with linked rainfall/runoff and flow models. Several important recommendations are made to improve the flood-documentation capability of the U.S. Geological Survey. When very large discharges are measured by current meter or hydroacoustics, water-surface slope should be measured as well. This measurement would allow validation of roughness values that can significantly extend the discharge range of verified Manning’s n for 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional flow analyses. At least two of the floods investigated may have had flow so unstable that large waves affected the interpretation of high-water marks. Instability criteria should be considered for hydraulic analysis of large flows in high-gradient, smooth channels. The U.S. Geological Survey needs to modernize its toolbox of field and office practices for making future indirect discharge measurements. These practices could include, first and foremost, a new peak-flow file database that allows greater description and interpretation of flow events, such as stability criteria in high-gradient, smooth channels, debris flow documentation, and details of flood genesis (hurricane, snowmelt, rain-on-snow, dam failure, and the like). Other modernized practices could include (a) establishment of calibrated stream reaches in chronic flash flood basins to expedite indirect computation of flow; (b) development of process-based theoretical rating curves for streamflow-gaging stations; (c) adoption of step-backwater models as the standard surface-water modeling tool for U.S. Geological Survey field offices; (d) development and support for multidimensional flow models capable of describing flood characteristics in complex terrain and high-gradient channels; (e) greater use of the critical-depth method in appropriate locations; (f) deployment of non-contact instruments to directly measure large floods, rather than attempting to reconstruct them; (g) increased use of paleoflood hydrology; and (h) assurance that future collection of hydro-climatic data meets the needs of more robust watershed models.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Regression models to estimate real-time concentrations of selected constituents in two tributaries to Lake Houston near Houston, Texas, 2005-07

In December 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Houston, Texas, began collecting discrete water-quality samples for nutrients, total organic carbon, bacteria (total coliform and Escherichia coli), atrazine, and suspended sediment at two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations upstream from Lake Houston near Houston (08068500 Spring Creek near Spring, Texas, and 08070200 East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, Texas). The data from the discrete water-quality samples collected during 2005-07, in conjunction with monitored real-time data already being collected - physical properties (specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen), streamflow, and rainfall - were used to develop regression models for predicting water-quality constituent concentrations for inflows to Lake Houston. Rainfall data were obtained from a rain gage monitored by Harris County Homeland Security and Emergency Management and colocated with the Spring Creek station. The leaps and bounds algorithm was used to find the best subsets of possible regression models (minimum residual sum of squares for a given number of variables). The potential explanatory or predictive variables included discharge (streamflow), specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, rainfall, and time (to account for seasonal variations inherent in some water-quality data). The response variables at each site were nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic carbon, Escherichia coli, atrazine, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables provide easily measured quantities as a means to estimate concentrations of the various constituents under investigation, with accompanying estimates of measurement uncertainty. Each regression equation can be used to estimate concentrations of a given constituent in real time. In conjunction with estimated concentrations, constituent loads were estimated by multiplying the estimated concentration by the corresponding streamflow and applying the appropriate conversion factor. By computing loads from estimated constituent concentrations, a continuous record of estimated loads can be available for comparison to total maximum daily loads. The regression equations presented in this report are site specific to the Spring Creek and East Fork San Jacinto River streamflow-gaging stations; however, the methods that were developed and documented could be applied to other tributaries to Lake Houston for estimating real-time water-quality data for streams entering Lake Houston.

Scientific Investigations Report↗