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USGS2015

Evaluation of airborne lidar elevation surfaces for propagation of coastal inundation: the importance of hydrologic connectivity

Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km 2 ) that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas were considered as part of a coastal inundation. A visual analysis indicated that developed, medium intensity and palustrine forested wetland land cover types would be impacted for those locations. This article demonstrates that hydrologic connectivity is an important factor to consider when inundating a lidar elevation surface. This information is needed for inundation monitoring and management in sensitive coastal regions.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2015

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day −1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day −1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS1978

Understanding natural systems; a perspective for land-use planning in Appalachian Kentucky

An eight-county area at the headwaters of the Kentucky River has been designated the Kentucky River Area Development District (KRADD) by the Appalachian Regional Commission. The objective of the project described in this report has been to provide materials to KRADD planners in a format and containing terminology usable by local people untrained in earth science. Experimental maps (not included in this report) have been prepared largely from preexisting data. Time and cost limitations required a regional analysis as well as somewhat more detailed examples of selected localities. Most of the maps produced to meet these needs show the abundance and distribution of naturally occurring materials and the areas affected by various geomorphic processes. Three types of maps, showing current land use, slope, and flood-prone areas, present both basic and derived data directly applicable to specific land-use decisions. Basic map information on quality and quantity of surface and ground water, bedrock and surficial geology, and mineral fuels can be interpreted for a wide variety of current and potential uses. Texts accompanying the maps explain bedrock control of geomorphic processes, distribution and significance of surficial deposits, and hydrologic characteristics of the intricately dissected eastern Kentucky terrain. Within this conceptual framework, geomorphic processes and the landscape may be evaluated in humanly significant terms of low to high potential risk, thereby indicating both opportunities and limitations for land use.

Kentucky↗

USGS2026

Opportunities and challenges in using Solid Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking (SPATT) samplers for monitoring cyanotoxins in freshwater and estuarine environments

Cyanobacterial toxins (cyanotoxins) represent a substantial threat to drinking water supplies and safe recreational uses of freshwater resources in watersheds worldwide. Monitoring cyanotoxins can be difficult because toxin events are variable in both space and time, are not always persistent, can be moved easily by wind and currents, and may be degraded biotically or abiotically. Thus, monitoring programs that collect discrete samples on a monthly or even bimonthly interval can miss key events and underestimate cyanotoxin risk or if they capture a high-concentration event, can give a false impression that cyanotoxins are a widespread health hazard. The use of Solid Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking (SPATT) samplers helps address this issue by providing a time-weighted average estimate of dissolved cyanotoxin occurrence and relative concentrations. SPATT samplers have been used as a complement to traditional monitoring programs and can help elucidate cyanotoxin dynamics. SPATT samplers have been used by six U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers (New York, California, Oregon, Upper Midwest, New Jersey, and Lower Mississippi-Gulf) to monitor various cyanotoxins in waterbodies such as streams, rivers, lakes, waterfalls, estuaries, and drinking-water intakes. Despite their use across the USGS, there is little guidance available to ensure consistent approaches and data quality across the Bureau. This report summarizes best practices for SPATT deployment and analysis, synthesizes data and describes lessons learned from USGS studies, identifies priority knowledge gaps, and offers considerations for future targeted experiments to help improve data collection and interpretation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Watershed hydrology assessment for the Lower Colorado River Basin. Appendix A: Statistical hydrology

Statistical analysis of the observational record from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages and period of historical flow observations prior to the gage installation provides an informative means of estimating flood flow frequency. The U.S. Geological Survey contributed to the InFRM team’s efforts by performing the statistical analysis of the gaged record and authored this Appendix to the Lower Watershed Hydrology Assessment. Flood flow frequency is defined by values or quantiles of streamflow for selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) (England and others, 2019). The annual peak streamflow data collected as part of the systematic operation of a streamgage provides the foundation for a detailed analysis of peak streamflow, but additional historical information pertaining to peak streamflows that predates the installation of a streamgage also can be used. An annual peak streamflow is defined as the maximum instantaneous streamflow for a streamgage for a given water year, and annual peak streamflow data for USGS streamgages can be acquired through the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database (USGS, 2022). The statistical analyses are based on water-year increments. A water year is the 12-month period from October 1 of a given year through September 30 of the following year designated by the calendar year in which it ends. For the statistical hydrology portion of a multifaceted analysis, InFRM team members from the USGS analyzed annual peak streamflow records for the 45 USGS streamgages (gages) and 21 Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) streamgages (gages) in the lower Colorado River Basin listed in Table A.1 and Table A.8. The locations of USGS gages are also shown on Figure A.1, Figure A.2, and Figure A.3, and the locations of LCRA gages are shown in Section 1.4. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Texas↗

USGS2025

PEST++IES how many iterations & realizations, finding the point of diminishing returns

PEST++IES (White 2018; White et al. 2020) is widely used in the groundwater modeling community for its ability to perform computationally efficient history matching and uncertainty analysis in a highly parameterized context. One primary advantage of using an iterative ensemble smoother is that the number of model runs required per iteration depends on the number of realizations in an ensemble, not the number of parameters in each realization. However, this raises the question: what is the optimal number of realizations and iterations to use for any one model before the point of diminishing returns? Using a modified version of the Freyberg model (Freyberg 1988; Hunt et al. 2020), different parameter and observation scenarios were evaluated for four iterations and ensembles of 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000, and 2000 realizations. To match observations, PEST++IES altered hydraulic conductivity ( k ), both globally across the model and locally at three different pilot point densities, as well as global recharge (via a single multiplier), global river conductance, and individual well flow rates. Risk-based well capture zone results (Fienen et al. 2022a) and estimated hydraulic conductivity fields from each scenario were quantitatively and qualitatively compared against the “truth” model and its outputs. Across the cases examined, ensemble sizes of 100 to 250 realizations and two PEST++IES iterations were generally sufficient to achieve good results.

Groundwater↗

USGS1978

Comparison of the Wilfley concentration table and hand panning for concentration of heavy minerals prior to geochemical analysis

Chemical analysis of heavy—mineral concentrates of stream sediments is a common geochemical exploration technique used by the U.S. Geological Survey. Generally these concentrates are prepared by hand panning at streamside or in a washtub and then further concentrated using heavy—liquid (bromoform) techniques in a laboratory. Concentration using heavy liquids is slow, tedious, and expensive for large surveys such as mineral evaluation of wilderness areas. In addition the cost of bromoform is expected to increase greatly because most if not all chemical companies in the United States have ceased production of the compound due to problems in meeting the safety standards of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (E.P.A.). Preliminary studies by the E.P.A. suggest a severe health hazard may be incurred by inhaling vapors of or contacting the skin with chemicals like bromoform. Heavy—liquid concentration of thousands of heavy— mineral samples carries an unavoidable risk of exposure to bromoform. The risk, expense, and time required by routine heavy—liquid concentration of heavy minerals should be eliminated by finding other methods to satisfactorily concentrate minerals whenever it is possible. Heavy—mineral concentrates can be used in several ways in geochemical exploration and each way has certain standards for the nature and quality of the mineral concentration required. The nature of the concentration refers to whether the heavy minerals are analyzed in bulk or whether they are split into magnetic fractions using a hand magnet and possibly a Frantz Isodynamic Magnetic Separator.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Particle-size dependence on metal(loid) distributions in mine wastes: Implications for water contamination and human exposure

The mining and processing of metal-bearing ores has resulted in contamination issues where waste materials from abandoned mines remain in piles of untreated and unconsolidated material, posing the potential for waterborne and airborne transport of toxic elements. This study presents a systematic method of particle size separation, mass distribution, and bulk chemical analysis for mine tailings and adjacent background soil samples from the Rand historic mining district, California, in order to assess particle size distribution and related trends in metal(loid) concentration as a function of particle size. Mine tailings produced through stamp milling and leaching processes were found to have both a narrower and finer particle size distribution than background samples, with significant fractions of particles available in a size range (???250 ??m) that could be incidentally ingested. In both tailings and background samples, the majority of trace metal(loid)s display an inverse relationship between concentration and particle size, resulting in higher proportions of As, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in finer-sized fractions which are more susceptible to both water- and wind-borne transport as well as ingestion and/or inhalation. Established regulatory screening levels for such elements may, therefore, significantly underestimate potential exposure risk if relying solely on bulk sample concentrations to guide remediation decisions. Correlations in elemental concentration trends (such as between As and Fe) indicate relationships between elements that may be relevant to their chemical speciation. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2017

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Lower Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Evaluating prediction uncertainty of areas contributing recharge to well fields of multiple water suppliers in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt River Basins, Rhode Island

Three river basins in central Rhode Island-the Hunt River, the Annaquatucket River, and the Pettaquamscutt River-contain 15 production wells clustered in 4 pumping centers from which drinking water is withdrawn. These high-capacity production wells, operated by three water suppliers, are screened in coarse-grained deposits of glacial origin. The risk of contaminating water withdrawn by these well centers may be reduced if the areas contributing recharge to the well centers are delineated and these areas protected from land uses that may affect the water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began an investigation in 2009 to improve the understanding of groundwater flow and delineate areas contributing recharge to the well centers as part of an effort to protect the source of water to these well centers. A groundwater-flow model was calibrated by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression to obtain the optimal set of parameter values, which provide a single, best representation of the area contributing recharge to a well center. Summary statistics from the calibrated model were used to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted areas contributing recharge to the well centers. This uncertainty analysis was done so that the contributing areas to the well centers would not be underestimated, thereby leaving the well centers inadequately protected. The analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution (probabilistic contributing areas) that differ from a single or deterministic contributing area. Groundwater flow was simulated in the surficial deposits and the underlying bedrock in the 47-square-mile study area. Observations (165 groundwater levels and 7 base flows) provided sufficient information to estimate parameters representing recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits and hydraulic conductance of streambeds. The calibrated value for recharge to valley-fill deposits was 27.3 inches per year (in/yr) and to upland till deposits was 18.7 in/yr. Calibrated values for horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the valley-fill deposits ranged from 20 to 480 feet per day (ft/d) and of the upland till deposits was 16.2 ft/d. Calibrated values of streambed hydraulic conductance ranged from 10,000 to 52,000 feet squared per day. Values of recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the valley-fill deposits were the most precisely estimated, whereas the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of till deposits was the least precisely estimated. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the well centers on the basis of the calibrated model ranged from 0.19 to 1.12 square miles (mi 2 ) and covered a total area of 2.79 mi 2 for average well center withdrawal rates during 2004-08 (235 to 1,858 gallons per minute (gal/min)). Simulated areas contributing recharge for the maximum well center pumping capacities (800 to 8,500 gal/min) ranged from 0.37 to 3.53 mi2 and covered a total area of 7.99 mi2 in the modeled area. Simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient of the well centers to upland till and to groundwater divides. Some areas contributing recharge include small, isolated areas remote from the well centers. Relatively short groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities: median traveltimes ranged from 2.9 to 5.0 years for the well centers, and 78 to 93 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less for the well centers. Land cover in the areas contributing recharge includes a substantial amount of urban land use for the two well centers in the Hunt River Basin, agriculture and sand and gravel mining uses for the well center in the Annaquatucket River Basin, and, for the well center in the Pettaquamscutt River Basin, land use is primarily undeveloped. Model-prediction uncertainty was evaluated using a Monte Carlo analysis. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from nonlinear regression was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters. The remaining parameters representing the glacial deposits (vertical anisotropy of valley-fill deposits and of till deposits, maximum groundwater evapotranspiration, and hydraulic conductance for headdependent cells representing a groundwater divide) that could not be estimated with nonlinear regression were incorporated into the variance-covariance matrix using prior information on parameters. Thus the uncertainty analysis was an outcome of calibrating the parameters to available observations and to information that the modeler provided. A water budget and model-fit statistical criteria were used to assess parameter sets so that prediction uncertainty was not overestimated. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas for each well center for both average and maximum pumping rates was larger than the size of the deterministic contributing areas for the well center. Thus, some areas not in the deterministic contributing area may actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agricultural land use. Generally, areas closest to the well centers with short groundwater traveltimes are associated with higher probabilities, whereas areas distant from the well centers with long groundwater traveltimes are associated with lower probabilities. The deterministic contributing areas generally corresponded to areas associated with high probabilities (greater than 50 percent). Areas associated with low probabilities extended long distances along groundwater divides in the uplands remote from the well centers.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2019

Self-organizing maps for compositional data: coal combustion products of a Wyoming power plant

A self-organizing map (SOM) is a non-linear projection of a D-dimensional data set, where the distance among observations is approximately preserved on to a lower dimensional space. The SOM arranges multivariate data based on their similarity to each other by allowing pattern recognition leading to easier interpretation of higher dimensional data. The SOM algorithm allows for selection of different map topologies, distances and parameters, which determine how the data will be organized on the map. In the particular case of compositional data (such as elemental, mineralogical, or maceral abundance), the sample space is governed by Aitchison geometry and extra steps are required prior to their SOM analysis. Following the principle of working on log-ratio coordinates, the simplicial operations and the Aitchison distance, which are appropriate elements for the SOM, are presented. With this structure developed, a SOM using Aitchison geometry is applied to properly interpret elemental data from combustion products (bottom ash, fly ash, and economizer fly ash) in a Wyoming coal-fired power plant. Results from this effort provide knowledge about the differences between the ash composition in the coal combustion process.

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessm↗

USGS2019

Predicting surf zone injuries along the Delaware coast using a Bayesian network

Personnel at Beebe Healthcare in Lewes, Delaware, collected surf zone injury (SZI) data for eight summer seasons from 2010 through 2017. Data include, but are not limited to, time of injury, gender, age, and activity. More than 2000 SZI events, including 196 spinal injuries and 6 fatalities, occurred at the five most populated beaches along the 25 miles of Atlantic-fronting coast. SZI are predominantly wave related incidents associated with wading (50.1%), body surfing (18.4%), and body boarding (13.3%). The episodic nature of SZI indicate the importance of linking the environmental conditions and human behavior in the surf zone to predict days with high injury rates. Higher order statistics are necessary to effectively consider all associated factors related to SZI. Two Bayesian networks (BN) were constructed to model SZI and predict changes in injury rate (proportion of injuries to bathers) and injury likelihood (probability of at least one injury occurrence) on an hourly basis. The models incorporate environmental data collected by weather stations, wave gauges, and researcher personnel on the beach. The models include prior (e.g., historic) information to infer relationships between provided parameters. Sensitivity analysis determined the most influential parameters related to injury rates were significant wave height, foreshore slope, and water temperature. Exposure parameters (e.g., air temperature) influenced the number of people in the water, resulting in strong correlation between injury likelihood and the related meteorological conditions (variance reduction > 0.4%). Log likelihood ratio (LLR) scores indicate the network predicts SZI likelihood during any specified hour with more skill than prior predictions with the best performing model improving prediction 69.1% of the time (LLR = 69.1%). An alternative BN predicting injury rate performed worse with the prior probability model out predicting the injury rate network (positive LLR = 36.7%). Issues persist with predicting SZI that have an LLR ≪ -1 (< 5% of 2017 injuries) and occur in conditions different than when most other SZI occur. Better understanding of SZI will improve awareness techniques to both educate beachgoers and assist beach patrol decision making during high risk conditions.

Delaware↗

USGS2006

Modeling the transport and inactivation of E. coli and enterococci in the near-shore region of Lake Michigan

To investigate the transport and fate of fecal pollution at Great Lakes beaches and the health risks associated with swimming, the near-shore waters of Lake Michigan and two tributaries discharging into it were examined for bacterial indicators of human fecal pollution. The enterococcus human fecal pollution marker, which targets a putative virulence factor the enterococcal surface protein (esp) in Enterococcus faecium , was detected in 2/28 samples (7%) in the tributaries draining into Lake Michigan and in 6/30 samples (20%) in Lake Michigan beaches. This was indicative of human fecal pollution being transported in the tributaries and occurrence at Lake Michigan beaches. To understand the relative importance of different processes influencing pollution transport and inactivation, a finite-element model of surf-zone hydrodynamics (coupled with models for temperature, E. coli and enterococci) was used. Enterococci appear to survive longer than E. coli , which was described using an overall first-order inactivation coefficient in the range 0.5−2.0 per day. Our analysis suggests that the majority of fecal indicator bacteria variation can be explained based on loadings from the tributaries. Sunlight is a major contributor to inactivation in the surf-zone and the formulation based on sunlight, temperature and sedimentation is preferred over the first-order inactivation formulation.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2017

Veligers of the invasive Asian clam Corbicula fluminea in the Columbia River Basin: Broadscale distribution, abundance, and ecological associations

The invasive Asian clam Corbicula fluminea was introduced to North America in the 1930s and now inhabits most regions of the conterminous United States; however, the distribution and ecology of C. fluminea in the Columbia River Basin is poorly understood. During 2013 and 2014, 5 Columbia-Snake River reservoirs were sampled monthly from May through September, along with 23 additional lakes and reservoirs sampled once each summer. Associations among C. fluminea veligers, other components of the plankton, and environmental variables were analyzed using non-metric multidimensional scaling and canonical correspondence analysis. Corbicula fluminea veligers were found in high abundances in all mainstem Columbia-Snake River reservoirs, with an annual mean abundance of 71.2 individuals per cubic meter (inds./m 3 ). Only 3 of 23 lakes and (non-mainstem) reservoirs contained C. fluminea , with abundances considerably lower (maximum = 21.2 inds./m 3 ) than in the mainstem reservoirs. A diatom-dominated community preceded the spawning of C. fluminea in early summer at all sites. Corbicula fluminea veligers characterized the plankton community in late summer and were associated with cyanobacteria and high water temperatures. A third community, characterized by cyanobacteria, was apparent in non-mainstem sites in July and August. Our analyses describe the relationship of C. fluminea to the plankton community and environment, which contributes to our understanding of the possible effects of C. fluminea infestations and which waterbodies in the Columbia River Basin are at risk for infestation. Understanding the effects and environmental determinants of invasive mollusks will be increasingly important in the future with the possible arrival of zebra ( Dreissena polymorpha ) or quagga ( D. bugensis ) mussels to the region.

Lake and Reservoir Management↗

USGS2013

Selenium in ecosystems within the mountaintop coal mining and valley-fill region of southern West Virginia-assessment and ecosystem-scale modeling

Coal and associated waste rock are among environmental selenium (Se) sources that have the potential to affect reproduction in fish and aquatic birds. Ecosystems of southern West Virginia that are affected by drainage from mountaintop coal mines and valleys filled with waste rock in the Coal, Gauley, and Lower Guyandotte watersheds were assessed during 2010 and 2011. Sampling data from earlier studies in these watersheds (for example, Upper Mud River Reservoir) and other mining-affected watersheds also are included to assess additional hydrologic settings and food webs for comparison. Basin schematics give a comprehensive view of sampled species and Se concentration data specific to location and date. Food-web diagrams document the progression of Se trophic transfer across suspended particulate material, invertebrates, and fish for each site to serve as the basis for developing an ecosystem-scale model to predict Se exposure within the hydrologic conditions and food webs of southern West Virginia. This approach integrates a site-specific predator’s dietary exposure pathway into modeling to ensure an adequate link to Se toxicity and, thus, to species vulnerability. Site-specific fish abundance and richness data in streams documented various species of chub, shiner, dace, darters, bass, minnow, sunfish, sucker, catfish, and central stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum), mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii), and least brook lamprey (Lampetra aepyptera). However, Se assessment species for streams, and hence, model species for streams, were limited to creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and central stoneroller. Both of these species of fish are generally considered to have a high tolerance for environmental stress based on traditional comparative fish community assessment, with creek chub being present at all sites. Aquatic insects (mayfly, caddisfly, stonefly, dobsonfly, chironomid) were the main invertebrates sampled in streams. Collection of suspended particulate material acted as an integrator of organic-rich, fine-grained biomass present in streams. The base-case food web modeled for streams was suspended particulate material to aquatic insect to creek chub, with comparative modeling of a direct particulate-to-stoneroller food web. Model species for a reservoir setting were based on an earlier study of bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Several reservoir food webs were considered based on a variety of invertebrates (insect, snail, clam). For stream and reservoir settings, predicted Se concentrations in exposure scenarios showed a high degree of correlation (r 2 = 0.91 for invertebrates and 0.75 for fish) with field observations of Se concentrations when modeling was initiated from suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations and model transfer parameters defined previously in the literature were used. These strong correlations validate the derived site-specific model and establish sufficient confidence that the predictions from the developed model can be quantitatively applied to the ecosystems in southern West Virginia. An application of modeling used a metric describing the partitioning of Se between particulate material and dissolved phases (K d ) to allow determination of a dissolved Se concentration that would be necessary to attain a site-specific Se fish body burden. The operationally defined K d quantifies the complex process of transformation at the base of a food web on a site-specific basis. The magnitude of this metric is known to vary with such factors as Se speciation, particulate-material type, and hydrology. This application (1) ties dissolved Se concentrations to fish tissue concentrations; (2) allows consideration of different choices for intervening site-specific exposure steps that set Se bioaccumulation, partitioning, and bioavailability; and (3) generates implications for management decisions that define protection through different regulatory pathways and guidelines. The range of model outcomes accounts for critical sources of variability and establishes whether site and food-web characterization were adequate to represent the dynamics of the system with certainty. This is especially true in terms of particulate-material phases at the base of the food web and utilization of K d in different hydrologic settings. For streams, a range of field-derived K d ds were applied to food-web exposure scenarios within a framework of locational and hydrologic variables (area of stream basin; stream gradient and discharge) that may affect the magnitude of K d . Overlaying even a coarse temporal scale that acknowledges variability in stream dissolved Se and Se speciation, such as through seasonal derivation of K d , can substantially narrow model uncertainty. Modeling that constrains the place and time of greatest ecosystem Se sensitivity within a specified food web gives insight into Se risk and identifies controlling management alternatives within a watershed or stream basin. If there is a range of hydrologic settings, specificity is needed to establish a hierarchy of in-stream and off-stream habitats for a watershed approach that takes into account Se-enriched water moving through different K d and food web environments. If there is a range of predator vulnerabilities (measured as a combination of food-web Se biodynamics and response in Se toxicity tests) within the site-specific community of fish species to be protected, then choice of fish species is critical to protection because it determines the food web and, hence, the magnitude of biotransfer through which Se is modeled. Whether creek chub is representative of the vulnerability to Se of all fish species encountered within the study-site ecosystems will require additional species-specific data and analysis. A range of site-specific scenarios illustrated here set model outcomes, but the final quantitative evaluation of alternatives and their implications will be those generated through choices and guidance formulated by state and other agencies in their decisionmaking processes. Proposed additions and refinements to the ecosystem-scale site-specific approach developed here include consideration of: measurement of temporally matched pairs of dissolved and suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations across a broader range of stream sites to expand the stream K d database and to test the representativeness of a suspended-particulate-material sample within a stream; characterization of different phases of particulate material across seasons to better define the base of the food web and connect to invertebrate feeding; refinement of model assumptions concerning dietary preferences and composition for fish to develop additional trophic transfer factors (TTFs) (for example, calculation of TTFinvertebrate composite for mixed diets); expansion of modeling of fish species and their food webs to include Se-vulnerable species; temporal characterization of a predator’s life cycle and habitat use as additional model layers to integrate with Se biodynamics in streams; investigation of the effect of stream gradient on K d based on a finer scale than presented here in terms of such variables as residence time, watershed dilution, and physical habitat attributes (for example, amount of ponding versus run or riffle within a stream); and linkage to discharge through use of stream gaging to record variability and enable model organization within water-year types and discharge seasons. Investigating the presence and variability of prey and predator species in demographically open systems such as streams also is key to model outcomes given the overall environmental stressors (for example, general landscape change, food-web disruption, recolonization potential) imposed on the composition of biological communities in coal mining and valley-fill affected watersheds

West Virginia↗

USGS2009

Effects of fire temperature on the physical and chemical characteristics of the ash from two plots of Cork oak (Quercus Suber)

Cork oak, (Quercus suber) is widely distributed in the Mediterranean region, an area subject to frequent fires. The ash produced by burning can have impacts on the soil status and water resources that can differ according to the temperature reached during fire and the characteristics of the litter, defined as the dead organic matter accumulated on the soil surface prior to the fire. The aim of this work is to determine the physical and chemical characteristics of ash produced in laboratory experiments to approximate conditions typical of fires in this region. The litter of Quercus suber collected from two different plots on the Iberian Peninsula, Mas Bassets (Catalonia) and Albufeira (Portugal), was combusted at different temperatures for 2h. We measured Mass Loss (ML per cent), ash colour and CaCO 3 content, pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC) and the major cations (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + and Na + ) released from ash slurries created by mixing ash with deionized water. The results showed that ML per cent is higher at all temperatures in Albufeira samples compared to Mas Bassets samples, except at 550??C, and the rate of loss increases faster with temperature than the Mas Bassets samples. At 150??C the ash colour is yellowish, becoming reddish at 200- 250??C and black at 300??C. Above 400??C the ash is grey/white. This thermal degradation is mostly observed in Albufeira litter. The formation of CaCO 3 was identified at a lower temperature in Albufeira litter. At temperatures <300??C, pH and EC values are lower, rising at higher temperatures, especially in Albufeira slurries. The concentration of cations at lower temperatures does not differ substantially from the unburned sample except for Mg 2+ . The cation concentration increases at medium temperatures and decrease at higher temperatures, especially the concentration of divalent cations. The monovalent cations showed a larger concentration at moderate temperatures, mainly in Albufeira ash slurries. The analysis of the Ca:Mg ratio also showed that for the same temperature, a higher severity results for Albufeira litter. Potential negative effects on soil properties are observed at medium and higher temperatures. These negative effects include a higher percentage of mass loss, meaning more soil may be exposed to erosion, higher pH values and greater cation release from ash, especially monovalalent cations (K + ,Na + ) in higher proportions than the divalent ions (Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ ), that can lead to impacts on soil physical properties like aggregate stability. Furthermore, the ions in ash may alter soil chemistry which may be detrimental to some plants thus altering the recovery of these ecosystems after fire. Low intensity prescribed fire can be a useful tool to land management in these sites, due to the reduced effects of fire temperatures on the physical and chemical properties of surface litter, and can reduce the risk of high temperature wildland fires by reducing fuel loadings. From the perspective of water resources, lower fire temperatures produce fewer impacts on the chemistry of overland flow and there is less probability that the soil surface will be eroded. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Land Degradation and Development↗

USGS2009

Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could segment earthquake rupture zones. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Biological Conservation↗