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At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack—Jolly—Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A meta-analysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1–41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3–66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0–7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2003

Stage-discharge relations for selected culverts and bridges in the Big Lost River flood plain at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

Information is needed by the U.S. Department of Energy at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory to determine the extent and severity of potential flooding at facilities along the Big Lost River. Two computer programs—the Culvert Analysis Program (CAP) and the HECRAS model—were used to define stage-discharge relations for 31 culverts and 2 bridge sites in a 10- mile reach of the river. These relations can be used to improve surface-water-flow models to evaluate potential flooding. Relations between headwater, tailwater, and discharge through each structure were unique. Discharge through the culverts as computed by the CAP ranged from about 0 cubic feet per second to as much discharge as could be conveyed, and tailwater elevations ranged from about 0 to 30 feet above the outlet elevation. Discharge through the bridges, as computed by the HEC-RAS model, ranged from nearly 0 to 7,000 cubic feet per second, and tailwater elevations ranged from nearly 0 to 30 feet above the streambed on the downstream cross section of each bridge. Stage-discharge relations provided in lookup tables in this report can be incorporated into numerical surface-water-flow models to simulate the effects of hydraulic structures on flood flows. One limitation of the CAP and HEC-RAS models is that changes in flow conditions, such as obstruction by sediment and debris, are not simulated. If flow through a hydraulic structure is obstructed by sediment or debris, then model-simulated discharges through the structure might be greater than would be experienced under actual conditions.

Idaho↗
USGS2022

Chapter 1: General conceptual model for climate change in the Upper San Francisco Estuary

This report is a collaboration by many state and federal agencies working in the Upper San Francisco Estuary to analyze the potential impacts of climate change to different ecosystems found here. Management stategies for ecological values in the face of climate change require reliable and focused information. In this technical report, our focus is on the Upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), which contains the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay. This area is home to three interconnected ecosystems: open water, floodplain, and tidal marsh. For this geographical area, we have decades of in-depth monitoring information and scientific investigations that have been successfully used to address a number of management needs. In 2019, the Interagency Ecological Program established a diverse work team to improve our ability to anticipate and respond to climate change impacts. The charge to the group was to: • synthesize science relevant to climate change, • determine important knowledge gaps, and • identify ecosystem metrics for climate change. We focus our analyses on the likely impacts of climate change on interconnected aquatic habitats. We illustrate how changes in habitats are likely to affect diverse species. In this report we describe ecological trends attributable to climate change and likely future impacts. We address four principal questions: 1. How have the habitats and biotic communities changed due to climatic trends and events? 2. How are estuarine habitats, flora, and fauna likely to change as climate change trends continue? 3. What are key metrics to document ecosystem change as a result of climate change? 4. How should our monitoring change to improve information value? Our work builds on the similar work of the San Francisco Baylands Goals Project (Goals Project 2015), which addressed climate change impacts to wetlands downstream of the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. We aim to contribute to an integrated baseline understanding of climate change impacts for the entire San Francisco Estuary.

California↗
USGS2015

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

Executive Summary The Borrego Valley is a small valley (110 square miles) in the northeastern part of San Diego County, California. Although the valley is about 60 miles northeast of city of San Diego, it is separated from the Pacific Ocean coast by the mountains to the west and is mostly within the boundaries of Anza-Borrego Desert State Park. From the time the basin was first settled, groundwater has been the only source of water to the valley. Groundwater is used for agricultural, recreational, and municipal purposes. Over time, groundwater withdrawal through pumping has exceeded the amount of water that has been replenished, causing groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet in some parts of the basin. Continued pumping has resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, dry wells, changes in water quality, and loss of natural groundwater discharge. As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative study of the Borrego Valley with the Borrego Water District (BWD) in 2009. The purpose of the study was to develop a greater understanding of the hydrogeology of the Borrego Valley Groundwater Basin (BVGB) and to provide tools to help evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of future development. The objectives of the study were to (1) improve the understanding of groundwater conditions and land subsidence, (2) incorporate this improved understanding into a model that would assist in the management of the groundwater resources in the Borrego Valley, and (3) use this model to test several management scenarios. This model provides the capability for the BWD and regional stakeholders to quantify the relative benefits of various options for increasing groundwater storage. The study focuses on the period 1945–2010, with scenarios 50 years into the future. This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

California↗
USGS2022

A computer-aided approach for adapting stage-discharge ratings and characterizing uncertainties of streamflow data with discrete measurements

Relations between stage (water level) and discharge of streamflow through a natural channel are the result of time-varying processes, which are commonly described by time-varying stage-discharge ratings. Hydrographers with the U.S. Geological Survey successfully maintain the accuracy of streamflow data by manually applying time-tested approaches to adapt ratings to temporal changes in hydraulic conditions. The difficulty with the manual approach is that it is a subjective, time-consuming process that requires considerable skill and experience to implement. In addition, manual adjustments of ratings make quantification of resulting streamflow data uncertainties problematic. A computer-aided adaptive stage-discharge estimation approach is proposed to track sequential changes in the relation between stage and discharge at continuous-record streamgages. In this report, adaptations are based strictly on discrete measurement data that are then used to compute the magnitudes and uncertainties of streamflow. The approach entails the parameterization of a cubic regression spline (CRS) for the stage-discharge relation based on an existing rating or on a set of discrete measurements. A state-space model is then parameterized to track temporal changes in stage-discharge relations beginning with the initial CRS parameterization using discrete measurements. Finally, Kalman estimation is used with the state-space model to estimate the magnitude and uncertainty of flows. In a case study using data from streamgage U.S. Geological Survey 04122500 Marquette River at Scottville, Michigan, a five-parameter CRS model was estimated from data in an existing stage-discharge rating to provide an initial CRS parameter set for a state-space model. The initial CRS parameters were updated sequentially in a state-space model based on periodic discrete measurements of stage and discharge that spanned a 30-year period for this analysis. Additional analysis is needed to determine the timing of rapidly varying shifts more precisely in stage-discharge relations than the relatively infrequent discrete measurements currently enabled. Unit streamflow estimates based on flow in a local streamgaging network may provide a basis for adapting a stage-discharge rating at unit time intervals by augmenting discrete measurement data within the state-space model.

Michigan↗
USGS2008

Use of inverse-modeling methods to improve ground-water-model calibration and evaluate model-prediction uncertainty, Camp Edwards, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Historical weapons testing and disposal activities at Camp Edwards, which is located on the Massachusetts Military Reservation, western Cape Cod, have resulted in the release of contaminants into an underlying sand and gravel aquifer that is the sole source of potable water to surrounding communities. Ground-water models have been used at the site to simulate advective transport in the aquifer in support of field investigations. Reasonable models developed by different groups and calibrated by trial and error often yield different predictions of advective transport, and the predictions lack quantitative measures of uncertainty. A recently (2004) developed regional model of western Cape Cod, modified to include the sensitivity and parameter-estimation capabilities of MODFLOW-2000, was used in this report to evaluate the utility of inverse (statistical) methods to (1) improve model calibration and (2) assess model-prediction uncertainty. Simulated heads and flows were most sensitive to recharge and to the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the Buzzards Bay and Sandwich Moraines and the Buzzards Bay and northern parts of the Mashpee outwash plains. Conversely, simulated heads and flows were much less sensitive to vertical hydraulic conductivity. Parameter estimation (inverse calibration) improved the match to observed heads and flows; the absolute mean residual for heads improved by 0.32 feet and the absolute mean residual for streamflows improved by about 0.2 cubic feet per second. Advective-transport predictions in Camp Edwards generally were most sensitive to the parameters with the highest precision (lowest coefficients of variation), indicating that the numerical model is adequate for evaluating prediction uncertainties in and around Camp Edwards. The incorporation of an advective-transport observation, representing the leading edge of a contaminant plume that had been difficult to match by using trial-and-error calibration, improved the match between an observed and simulated plume path; however, a modified representation of local geology was needed to simultaneously maintain a reasonable calibration to heads and flows and to the plume path. Advective-transport uncertainties were expressed as about 68-, 95-, and 99-percent confidence intervals on three dimensional simulated particle positions. The confidence intervals can be graphically represented as ellipses around individual particle positions in the X-Y (geographic) plane and in the X-Z or Y-Z (vertical) planes. The merging of individual ellipses allows uncertainties on forward particle tracks to be displayed in map or cross-sectional view as a cone of uncertainty around a simulated particle path; uncertainties on reverse particle-track endpoints - representing simulated recharge locations - can be geographically displayed as areas at the water table around the discrete particle endpoints. This information gives decisionmakers insight into the level of confidence they can have in particle-tracking results and can assist them in the efficient use of available field resources.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2004

Water quality in the lower Tennessee River Basin, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia, 1999-2001

This report contains the major findings of a 1999?2001 assessment of water quality in the Lower Tennessee River Basin. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings in 51 major river basins and aquifer systems across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, State, and regional issues. Conditions in a particular basin or aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality and the protection of aquatic organisms. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or in the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as the effects of agricultural and urban land use on water quality, human health, drinking water, source-water protection, hypoxia and excessive growth of algae and plants, pesticide registration, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of streams and ground water in areas where they live, and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the Lower Tennessee River Basin summarized in this report are discussed in detail in other reports that can be accessed from the Lower Tennessee River Basin Web site (http://tn.water.usgs.gov/lten/lten.html). Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa).

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee↗
USGS2003

The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2005

Historical development of the U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic monitoring and investigative programs at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho, 1949 to 2001

This report is a summary of the historical development, from 1949 to 2001, of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) hydrologic monitoring and investigative programs at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The report covers the USGS's water-level monitoring program, water-quality sampling program, geophysical program, geologic framework program, drilling program, modeling program, surface-water program, and unsaturated-zone program. The report provides physical information about the wells and information about the frequencies of sampling and measurement. Summaries of USGS published reports with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) report numbers also are provided in an appendix. This report was prepared by the USGS in cooperation with the DOE.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Spatial integration of biological and social objectives to identify priority landscapes for waterfowl habitat conservation

Waterfowl population management and habitat conservation compose one of the oldest and most successful adaptive management frameworks in the world. Since its inception, the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) has emphasized strategically targeted conservation investments in regions that most affect waterfowl population dynamics. By 2012, regional conservation had progressively become more science-based and strategic: many migratory bird partnerships had initiated or completed projects on mapping and modeling waterfowl distribution and abundances using geospatial techniques. However, when developing a map depicting and titled “Areas of Greatest Continental Significance to North American Ducks, Geese, and Swans” for the 2012 NAWMP Revision, waterfowl professionals articulated the need for improved decision frameworks and use of consistent datasets for refining large-scale spatial products depicting priority areas for waterfowl and people. This report describes a framework for developing a spatial value model to support the identification of North American geographies of importance to waterfowl during the breeding and non-breeding periods and to resource users who could potentially support (financially and (or) politically) waterfowl habitat conservation. Objectives used to identify priority geographies were determined through a collaborative process of the NAWMP Science Support Team, Priority Landscapes Committee (PLC), and other experts in the fields of waterfowl biology and ecology, environmental science, and human dimensions. ArcGIS Desktop was used as the platform for managing, analyzing, combining and displaying the spatial data as well as producing new data through spatial analysis functions. Thirty-eight spatial layers were developed, and several composite spatially explicit products (maps of North America) were produced based on PLC recommendations. The composite products have extensive similarities to the 2012 NAWMP map depicting areas of greatest continental significance to North American waterfowl. There are also some differences, especially in regions of the high Arctic and in Mexico. These differences between spatial value model maps and the 2012 NAWMP output likely arose from inclusion of social objectives, reduced dependence on expert opinion to generate abundance estimates, lack of population surveys in some regions and availability of expanded survey data in other regions, and use of model-based waterfowl population estimates for some unsurveyed areas. The structured decision-making framework application in this study is discussed, and the appropriate use of the products and their limitations are outlined. Additionally, options for future improvements are presented by identifying gaps in data collection, waterfowl-habitat association assumptions, and uncertainties related to social objectives. These spatial products are intended for use by national, regional, and province/state level wildlife professionals to aid their decisions in targeting waterfowl habitat conservation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Book chapter↗
USGS2001

Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1, 1994 through December 31, 1999

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska - Fairbanks, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, has maintained a seismic monitoring program at potentially active volcanoes in Alaska since 1988 (Power and others, 1993; Jolly and others, 1996). The primary objectives of this program are the seismic surveillance of active, potentially hazardous, Alaskan volcanoes and the investigation of seismic processes associated with active volcanism. Between 1994 and 1999, the AVO seismic monitoring program underwent significant changes with networks added at new volcanoes during each summer from 1995 through 1999. The existing network at Katmai –Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) was repaired in 1995, and new networks were installed at Makushin (1996), Akutan (1996), Pavlof (1996), Katmai - south (1996), Aniakchak (1997), Shishaldin (1997), Katmai - north (1998), Westdahl, (1998), Great Sitkin (1999) and Kanaga (1999). These networks added to AVO's existing seismograph networks in the Cook Inlet area and increased the number of AVO seismograph stations from 46 sites and 57 components in 1994 to 121 sites and 155 components in 1999. The 1995–1999 seismic network expansion increased the number of volcanoes monitored in real-time from 4 to 22, including Mount Spurr, Redoubt Volcano, Iliamna Volcano, Augustine Volcano, Mount Snowy, Mount Griggs, Mount Katmai, Novarupta, Trident Volcano, Mount Mageik, Mount Martin, Aniakchak Crater, Pavlof Volcano, Mount Dutton, Isanotski volcano, Shisaldin Volcano, Fisher Caldera, Westdahl volcano, Akutan volcano, Makushin Volcano, Great Sitkin volcano, and Kanaga Volcano (see Figures 1-15). The network expansion also increased the number of earthquakes located from about 600 per year in1994 and 1995 to about 3000 per year between 1997 and 1999. Highlights of the catalog period include: 1) a large volcanogenic seismic swarm at Akutan volcano in March and April 1996 (Lu and others, 2000); 2) an eruption at Pavlof Volcano in fall 1996 (Garces and others, 2000; McNutt and others, 2000); 3) an earthquake swarm at Iliamna volcano between September and December 1996; 4) an earthquake swarm at Mount Mageik in October 1996 (Jolly and McNutt, 1999); 5) an earthquake swarm located at shallow depth near Strandline Lake; 6) a strong swarm of earthquakes near Becharof Lake; 7) precursory seismicity and an eruption at Shishaldin Volcano in April 1999 that included a 5.2 ML earthquake and aftershock sequence (Moran and others, in press; Thompson and others, in press). The 1996 calendar year is also notable as the seismicity rate was very high, especially in the fall when 3 separate areas (Strandline Lake, Iliamna Volcano, and several of the Katmai volcanoes) experienced high rates of located earthquakes. This catalog covers the period from January 1, 1994, through December 31,1999, and includes: 1) earthquake origin times, hypocenters, and magnitudes with summary statistics describing the earthquake location quality; 2) a description of instruments deployed in the field and their locations and magnifications; 3) a description of earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival; 4) velocity models used for earthquake locations; 5) phase arrival times recorded at individual stations; and 6) a summary of daily station usage from throughout the report period. We have made calculated hypocenters, station locations, system magnifications, velocity models, and phase arrival information available for download via computer network as a compressed Unix tar file.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Base of principal aquifer for the Elkhorn-Loup model area, North-Central Nebraska

In Nebraska, the water managers in the Natural Resources Districts and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources are concerned with the effect of ground-water withdrawal on the availability of surface water and the long-term effects of ground-water withdrawal on ground- and surface-water resources. In north-central Nebraska, in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, ground water is used for irrigation, domestic supply, and public supply; surface water is used in this area for irrigation, recreation, and hydropower production. In recognition of these sometimes competing ground- and surface-water uses in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lewis and Clark Natural Resources District, the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District, the Lower Loup Natural Resources District, the Lower Niobrara Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, the Middle Niobrara Natural Resources District, the Upper Elkhorn Natural Resources District, and the Upper Loup Natural Resources District agreed to cooperatively study water resources in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins. The goals of the overall study were to construct and calibrate a regional ground-water flow model of the area and to use that flow model as a tool to assess current and future effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow and to help develop long-term water-resource management strategies for this area, hereafter referred to as the Elkhorn-Loup model area. The Elkhorn-Loup model area covers approximately 30,800 square miles, and extends from the Niobrara River in the north to the Platte River in the south. The western boundary of the Elkhorn-Loup model area coincides with the western boundary of the Middle Niobrara, Twin Platte, and Upper Loup Natural Resources Districts; the eastern boundary coincides with the approximate location of the western extent of glacial till in eastern Nebraska. The principal aquifer in most of the Elkhorn-Loup model area is the High Plains aquifer; the principal aquifer in the remaining part of the Elkhorn-Loup model area is an unnamed alluvial aquifer. The upper surface of the geologic units that directly underlie the aquifer is called the 'base of aquifer' in this report. The geologic unit that forms the base of aquifer in the Elkhorn-Loup model area varies by location. The Tertiary-age Brule Formation generally is the base of aquifer in the west; the Cretaceous-age Pierre Shale generally is the base of aquifer in the east. The purpose of this report is to update the altitude and configuration of the base of the principal aquifer in the Elkhorn-Loup model area and a 2-mile buffer area around the Elkhorn-Loup model area, using base-of-aquifer data from test holes, registered water wells, and oil and gas wells within the Elkhorn-Loup model area and a 20-mile buffer area around the Elkhorn-Loup model area that have become available since the publication of earlier maps of the base of aquifer for this area. The base-of-aquifer map is important for the Elkhorn-Loup ground-water flow model because it defines the model's lower boundary. The accuracy of the Elkhorn-Loup ground-water flow model and the accuracy of the model's predictions about the effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow are directly related to the accuracy of the model's lower boundary.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2005

Development and analysis of regional curves for streams in the non-urban valley and ridge physiographic province, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia

Regression relations for bankfull stream characteristics based on drainage area (often called 'regional curves') are used in natural stream channel design to verify field determinations of bankfull discharge and stream channel characteristics. Bankfull stream characteristics were assessed for stream reaches at 41 streamflow-gaging stations in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. Data collected included bankfull cross-sectional geometry, flood plain geometry, and longitudinal profile data. In addition, particle-size distributions of streambed material were determined and data on basin characteristics were compiled for each reach. Regional curves were developed for bankfull cross-sectional area, width, and discharge with R2 values of 0.95, 0.89, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. Examination of the regional curves residuals indicates that there is more variability in bankfull cross-sectional area, width, and discharge for smaller streams than for larger streams. In contrast, there is more variability for bankfull mean depth for larger streams than for smaller streams. Geographic analysis of regional curve residuals indicated that there were no further subdivisions within the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in the three-state study area for which individual sets of regional curves should be developed. In addition, two separate sets of regional curves were developed with data from the 41 sites to examine potential differences in the relations between the southern (n = 9) and central (n = 32) sections of the province. There were differences in slope and intercept between the two bankfull discharge test relations and a difference in intercept for the width test relations at the 95-percent confidence level. However, the results of this analysis were inconclusive and therefore one set of regional curves for the study area is presented in this report. The regional curves were compared to regression models developed from similar data collected in the Pennsylvania and Maryland portions of the province. No statistical difference in the slope or intercept of regression lines of the three data sets was detected for any of the four bankfull parameters at the 95-percent confidence level. Basin characteristics such as percentage of basin forested (percent forested) and percentage of basin underlain by carbonate bedrock (percent carbonate) were analyzed to evaluate variability among regression points. Multivariate regression relations including explanatory terms for percent carbonate and drainage area produced higher R2 values than the regional curves for bankfull cross-sectional area (R2 = 0.95), bankfull width (R2 = 0.92), and bankfull discharge (R2 = 0.93). There was no improvement for the bankfull mean depth relation from adding the additional term. Inclusion of the other basin characteristics in multivariate relations did not improve the regression models. Regression models developed for the 1.5-year discharge for all streamflow-gaging stations with peak discharge data throughout Virginia (n = 486) and throughout the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province in Virginia (n = 147) were compared to the regional curve relating bankfull discharge to drainage area. A similar trend in decreasing variability with increasing drainage area was observed for the 1.5-year discharge for all stations in Virginia . This indicates that the change in variability observed in the discharge regional curve likely would exist with a larger data set. There was no statistical difference at the 95-percent confidence level between regression relations for the southern section of the province (n = 40) and the central section (n = 107). This finding supports maintaining only one set of regional curves for the study area. Not all of the variability in the regional curves is explained by drainage area alone. Causes of the remaining variability likely vary among study sites. Users of the regional curves developed in this study are cautioned that, because of inherent variability in hydrologic data, a thorough analysis of the fluvial system and the drainage basin is necessary when evaluating the bankfull characteristics of a stream.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2002

User's guide to HYPOINVERSE-2000, a Fortran program to solve for earthquake locations and magnitudes

Hypoinverse is a computer program that processes files of seismic station data for an earthquake (like p wave arrival times and seismogram amplitudes and durations) into earthquake locations and magnitudes. It is one of a long line of similar USGS programs including HYPOLAYR (Eaton, 1969), HYPO71 (Lee and Lahr, 1972), and HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr, 1980). If you are new to Hypoinverse, you may want to start by glancing at the section “SOME SIMPLE COMMAND SEQUENCES” to get a feel of some simpler sessions. This document is essentially an advanced user’s guide, and reading it sequentially will probably plow the reader into more detail than he/she needs. Every user must have a crust model, station list and phase data input files, and glancing at these sections is a good place to begin. The program has many options because it has grown over the years to meet the needs of one the largest seismic networks in the world, but small networks with just a few stations do use the program and can ignore most of the options and commands. History and availability. Hypoinverse was originally written for the Eclipse minicomputer in 1978 (Klein, 1978). A revised version for VAX and Pro-350 computers (Klein, 1985) was later expanded to include multiple crustal models and other capabilities (Klein, 1989). This current report documents the expanded Y2000 version and it supercedes the earlier documents. It serves as a detailed user's guide to the current version running on unix and VAX-alpha computers, and to the version supplied with the Earthworm earthquake digitizing system. Fortran-77 source code (Sun and VAX compatible) and copies of this documentation is available via anonymous ftp from computers in Menlo Park. At present, the computer is swave.wr.usgs.gov and the directory is /ftp/pub/outgoing/klein/hyp2000. If you are running Hypoinverse on one of the Menlo Park EHZ or NCSN unix computers, the executable currently is ~klein/hyp2000/hyp2000. New features. The Y2000 version of Hypoinverse includes all of the previous capabilities, but adds Y2000 formats to those defined earlier. In most cases, the new formats add 2 digits to the year field to accommodate the century. Other fields are sometimes rearranged or expanded to accommodate a better field order. The Y2000 formats are invoked with the “200” command. When the Y2000 flag is turned on, all files are read and written in the new format and there is no mixing of format types in a single run. Some formats without a date field, like station files, have not changed. A separate program called 2000CONV has been written to convert old formats to new. Other new features, like expanded station names, calculating amplitude magnitudes from a variety of digital seismometers, station history files, interactive earthquake processing, and locations from CUSP (Caltech USGS Seismic Processing) binary files have been added. General features. Hypoinverse will locate any number of events in an input file, which can be in one of several different formats. Any or all of printout, summary or archive output may be produced. Hypoinverse is driven by user commands. The various commands define input and output files, set adjustable parameters, and solve for locations of a file of earthquake data using the parameters and files currently set. It is both interactive and "batch" in that commands may be executed either from the keyboard or from a file. You execute the commands in a file by typing @filename at the Hypoinverse prompt. Users may either supply parameters on the command line, or omit them and are prompted interactively. The current parameter values are displayed and may be taken as defaults by pressing just the RETURN key after the prompt. This makes the program very easy to use, providing you can remember the names of the commands. Combining commands with and without their required parameters into a command file permits a variety of customized procedures such as automatic input of crustal model and station data, but prompting for a different phase file each time. All commands are 3 letters long and most require one or more parameters or file names. If they appear on a line with a command, character strings such as filenames must be enclosed in apostrophes (single quotes). Appendix 1 gives this and other free-format rules for supplying parameters, which are parsed in Fortran. When several parameters are required following a command, any of them may be omitted by replacing them with null fields (see appendix 1). A null field leaves that parameter unchanged from its current or default value. When you start HYPOINVERSE, default values are in effect for all parameters except file names. Hypoinverse is a complicated program with many features and options. Many of these "advanced" or seldom used features are documented here, but are more detailed than a typical user needs to read about when first starting with the program. I have put some of this material in smaller type so that a first time user can concentrate on the more important information.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

Geologic and hydrogeologic framework of the Espanola basin -- Proceedings of the 4th annual Espanola Basin Workshop, Santa Fe, New Mexico, March 1-3, 2005

This report presents abstracts of technical studies that pertain to the hydrogeologic framework of the This report presents abstracts of technical studies that pertain to the hydrogeologic framework of the Española basin, a major subbasin of the Cenozoic Rio Grande rift. Sediments and interbedded volcanic rocks that fill the Española basin comprise an aquifer system that is an important source of water for many residents of the basin, including people in the cities of Santa Fe, Española, and Los Alamos as well as Native Americans in eleven Pueblos. The abstracts describe results of technical studies that were presented either as poster exhibits or oral presentations at the forth-annual Española basin workshop, held March 1-2 of 2005 in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The principal goal of this workshop was to share information about ongoing studies. The Española basin workshop was hosted by the Española basin technical advisory group (EBTAG) and sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, and both the Water Research Technical Assistance Office and the Groundwater Protection Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Abstracts in this report have been grouped into six information themes: Basic Water Data, Water Quality and Water Chemistry, Water Balance and Stream/Aquifer Interaction, Data Integration and Hydrologic Model Testing, Three-Dimensional Hydrogeological Architecture, and Geologic Framework. Taken together, the abstracts in this report provide a view of the current status of hydrogeologic research within the Española basin. , a major subbasin of the Cenozoic Rio Grande rift. Sediments and interbedded volcanic rocks that fill the Española basin comprise an aquifer system that is an important source of water for many residents of the basin, including people in the cities of Santa Fe, Española, and Los Alamos as well as Native Americans in eleven Pueblos. The abstracts describe results of technical studies that were presented either as poster exhibits or oral presentations at the forth-annual Española basin workshop, held March 1-2 of 2005 in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The principal goal of this workshop was to share information about ongoing studies. The Española basin workshop was hosted by the Española basin technical advisory group (EBTAG) and sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, and both the Water Research Technical Assistance Office and the Groundwater Protection Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Abstracts in this report have been grouped into six information themes: Basic Water Data, Water Quality and Water Chemistry, Water Balance and Stream/Aquifer Interaction, Data Integration and Hydrologic Model Testing, Three-Dimensional Hydrogeological Architecture, and Geologic Framework. Taken together, the abstracts in this report provide a view of the current status of hydrogeologic research within the Española basin.

New Mexico↗
USGS2011

Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To allow for water budget comparisons to the ephemeral models, the two perennial models were then run from 1980 to 2007, the time period constrained somewhat by the later record for the high-altitude climate station used in the simulation. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide mean annual rates and volumes derived from each year of the simulation. Mean annual bias for the calibration period for Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek watersheds was within 6 and 3 percent, and relative errors were about 18 and -2 percent, respectively. For the 1980-2007 period of record, mean recharge efficiency and runoff efficiency (percentage of precipitation as groundwater inflow and runoff) averaged 7 and 39 percent, respectively, for Ash Canyon Creek, and 8 and 31 percent, respectively, for Clear Creek. For this same period, groundwater inflow volumes averaged about 500 acre-feet for Ash Canyon and 1,200 acre-feet for Clear Creek. The simulation period for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from water years 1978 to 2007. Mean annual simulated precipitation ranged from 6 to 11 inches. Estimates of recharge efficiency for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from 3 percent for Eureka Canyon to 7 percent for Eldorado Canyon. Runoff efficiency ranged from 7 percent for Eureka Canyon and 15 percent at Brunswick Canyon. For the 1978-2007 period, mean annual groundwater inflow volumes ranged from about 40 acre-feet for Eureka Canyon to just under 5,000 acre-feet for Churchill Canyon watershed. Watershed model results indicate significant interannual variability in the volumes of groundwater inflow caused by climate variations. For most of the modeled watersheds, little to no groundwater inflow was simulated for years with less than 8 inches of precipitation, unless those years were preceded by abnormally high precipitation years with significant subsurface storage carryover.

Nevada↗