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USGS2017

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2008

Changes in dissolved organic material determine exposure of stream benthic communities to UV-B radiation and heavy metals: Implications for climate change

Changes in regional climate in the Rocky Mountains over the next 100 years are expected to have significant effects on biogeochemical cycles and hydrological processes. In particular, decreased discharge and lower stream depth during summer when ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is the highest combined with greater photo-oxidation of dissolved organic materials (DOM) will significantly increase exposure of benthic communities to UVR. Communities in many Rocky Mountain streams are simultaneously exposed to elevated metals from abandoned mines, the toxicity and bioavailability of which are also determined by DOM. We integrated field surveys of 19 streams (21 sites) along a gradient of metal contamination with microcosm and field experiments conducted in Colorado, USA, and New Zealand to investigate the influence of DOM on bioavailability of heavy metals and exposure of benthic communities to UVR. Spatial and seasonal variation in DOM were closely related to stream discharge and significantly influenced heavy metal uptake in benthic organisms. Qualitative and quantitative changes in DOM resulting from exposure to sunlight increased UV-B (290-320nm) penetration and toxicity of heavy metals. Results of microcosm experiments showed that benthic communities from a metal-polluted stream were tolerant of metals, but were more sensitive to UV-B than communities from a reference stream. We speculate that the greater sensitivity of these communities to UV-B resulted from costs associated with metal tolerance. Exclusion of UVR from 12 separate Colorado streams and from outdoor stream microcosms in New Zealand increased the abundance of benthic organisms (mayflies, stoneflies, and caddisflies) by 18% and 54%, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering changes in regional climate and UV-B exposure when assessing the effects of local anthropogenic stressors. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

Predicted connectivity pathways between grizzly bear ecosystems in western Montana

Habitat and corridor mapping are key components of many conservation programs. Grizzly bear populations in the continental US are fragmented and connectivity among federal recovery areas is a conservation goal. Building on recent work, we modeled movements to predict areas of connectivity, using integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears (F = 46, M = 19) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE). We applied iSSFs in a >300,000 km 2 area including the NCDE, Cabinet–Yaak (CYE), Bitterroot (BE), and Greater Yellowstone (GYE) Ecosystems. First, we simulated directed movements (randomized shortest paths with 3 levels of exploration) between start and end nodes across populations. Second, we simulated undirected movements from start nodes in the NCDE, CYE, or GYE (no predetermined end nodes). We summarized and binned results as classes 1 (lowest relative predicted use) – 10 (highest relative predicted use) and evaluated predictions using 127 outlier grizzly bear locations. Connectivity pathways were primarily associated with mountainous areas and secondarily with river and stream courses in open valleys. Values at outlier locations indicated good model fit and mean classes at outlier locations (≥7.4) and Spearman rank correlations (≥0.87) were highest for undirected simulations and directed simulations with the highest level of exploration. Our resulting predictive maps can facilitate on-the-ground application of this research for prioritizing habitat conservation, human-bear conflict mitigation, and transportation planning. Additionally, our overall modeling approach has utility for myriad species and conservation applications.

Montana↗

USGS2019

The future of barriers and trapping methods in the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program in the Laurentian Great Lakes

A major duty of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC), created in 1955, was the development a program of eradication or management of sea lamprey populations in the Great Lakes for the protection of the Great Lakes fishery. Beginning in the 1980s the GLFC shifted sea lamprey control to an integrated pest management model seeking to deploy control measures which target multiple life stages. Currently control efforts focus on limiting the area of infestation using barriers to migratory adults and eradication of larvae from streams using selective pesticides. Feedback on program effectiveness is obtained by trapping migratory adult lamprey at a series of index sites around the basin. The GLFC continues to support multiple research initiatives to develop additional control, improve current control measures, and further advance the sea lamprey control program. During the past six decades sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes has evolved as the research program has identified technological advances. Here we summarize the current state and recent advancements for two of the sea lamprey control program’s core elements, barriers and traps, highlight challenges to be addressed to continue the advancement of these program elements, and provide a series of research questions to spur interest within the research community. Further, because considerable information about these program elements is scattered among grey literature and technical reports, we summarize the history of barriers and traps in sea lamprey control in the included appendices to provide relevant program background to anyone interested in pursuing these research topics.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2024

Merging integrated population models and individual-based models to project population dynamics of recolonizing species

Recolonizing species exhibit unique population dynamics, namely dispersal to and colonization of new areas, that have important implications for management. A resulting challenge is how to simultaneously model demographic and movement processes so that recolonizing species can be accurately projected over time and space. We introduce a framework for spatially explicit projection modeling that harnesses the rigorous parameter estimation made possible by an integrated population model (IPM) and the flexible movement modeling made possible by an individual-based model (IBM). Our framework has two components: [1] a Bayesian IPM-driven age- and state-structured population model that governs the population state process and estimation of demographic rates, and [2] an IBM-driven spatial model that allows for the projection of dispersal and habitat colonization. We applied this model framework to estimate current and project future dynamics of gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Washington State, USA. We used data from 74 telemetered wolves and yearly pup and pack counts to parameterize the model, and then projected statewide dynamics over 50 years. Mean population growth was 1.29 (95 % Bayesian Credible Interval = 1.26–1.33) during initial recolonization from 2009 to 2020 and decreased to 1.02 (95 % Prediction Interval = 0.98–1.04) in the projection period (2021–2070). Our results suggest that gray wolves have an ~100 % probability of colonizing the last of Washington State's three specified recovery regions by 2030, regardless of alternative assumptions about how dispersing wolves select new territories. Our spatially explicit projection model can be used to project the dynamics of any species for which spatial spread is an important driver of population dynamics.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Landscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests

Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conducted an integrated ecological and ecohydrological study in tropical forests impacted by invasive plants and animals. We measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest site pairs along moisture and substrate age gradients across Hawaii to explore the effects of invasion on hydrological processes within tropical forests. We also characterized forest composition, structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Our models show that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, several soil characteristics known to be affected by invasive ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates, indicating that the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in tropical forests may be stronger than effects observed in this study. The effect of invasive plants on infiltration was complex and likely to depend on their physiognomy within existing forest community structure. These results provide clear evidence for managers that invasive ungulate control efforts can improve ecohydrological function of mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Grizzly bear movement models predict habitat use for nearby populations

Conservation planning and decision-making can be enhanced by ecological models that reliably transfer to times and places beyond those where models were developed. Transferrable models can be especially helpful for species of conservation concern, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ). Currently, only four grizzly bear populations remain in the contiguous United States. We evaluated transferability of previously derived individual-based, integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem by applying them within the nearby Selkirk (SE), Cabinet-Yaak (CYE), and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystems (GYE). We simulated 100 replicates of 5000 steps for each iSSF in each ecosystem, summarized relative use into 10 equal-area classes for each sex, and overlaid GPS locations from bears in the SE, CYE, and GYE on resulting maps. Spearman rank correlations between numbers of locations and class rank were ≥ 0.96 within each study area, indicating models were highly predictive of grizzly bear space use in these nearby populations. Assessment of models using smaller subsets of data in space and time demonstrated generally high predictive accuracy for females. Although generally high across space and time, predictive accuracy for males was low within some watersheds and in summer within the SE and CYE, potentially due to seasonal effects, vegetation, and food assemblage differences. Altogether, these results demonstrated high transferability of our models to landscapes in the Northern Rocky Mountains, suggesting they may be used to evaluate habitat suitability and connectivity throughout the region to benefit conservation planning.

Idaho, Montana, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Developing and testing temperature models for regulated systems: a case study on the Upper Delaware River

Water temperature is an important driver of many processes in riverine ecosystems. If reservoirs are present, their releases can greatly influence downstream water temperatures. Models are important tools in understanding the influence these releases may have on the thermal regimes of downstream rivers. In this study, we developed and tested a suite of models to predict river temperature at a location downstream of two reservoirs in the Upper Delaware River (USA), a section of river that is managed to support a world-class coldwater fishery. Three empirical models were tested, including a Generalized Least Squares Model with a cosine trend (GLScos), AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We also tested one mechanistic Heat Flux Model (HFM) that was based on energy gain and loss. Predictor variables used in model development included climate data (e.g., solar radiation, wind speed, etc.) collected from a nearby weather station and temperature and hydrologic data from upstream U.S. Geological Survey gages. Models were developed with a training dataset that consisted of data from 2008 to 2011; they were then independently validated with a test dataset from 2012. Model accuracy was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and index of agreement (d) statistics. Model forecast success was evaluated using baseline-modified prime index of agreement (md) at the one, three, and five day predictions. All five models accurately predicted daily mean river temperature across the entire training dataset (RMSE = 0.58–1.311, NSE = 0.99–0.97, d = 0.98–0.99); ARIMA was most accurate (RMSE = 0.57, NSE = 0.99), but each model, other than ARIMA, showed short periods of under- or over-predicting observed warmer temperatures. For the training dataset, all models besides ARIMA had overestimation bias (PBIAS = −0.10 to −1.30). Validation analyses showed all models performed well; the HFM model was the most accurate compared other models (RMSE = 0.92, both NSE = 0.98, d = 0.99) and the ARIMA model was least accurate (RMSE = 2.06, NSE = 0.92, d = 0.98); however, all models had an overestimation bias (PBIAS = −4.1 to −10.20). Aside from the one day forecast ARIMA model (md = 0.53), all models forecasted fairly well at the one, three, and five day forecasts (md = 0.77–0.96). Overall, we were successful in developing models predicting daily mean temperature across a broad range of temperatures. These models, specifically the GLScos, ANN, and HFM, may serve as important tools for predicting conditions and managing thermal releases in regulated river systems such as the Delaware River. Further model development may be important in customizing predictions for particular biological or ecological needs, or for particular temporal or spatial scales.

Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2023

Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: Learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence and resilience of vibrant fish populations and sustainable, equitable fisheries in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams to offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this goal requires a complex intersection of science and management, and a recognition of the interconnections among people, place, and fish that govern these tightly coupled socioecological and sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years and provides a unique global forum to debate and discuss threats, issues, and opportunities facing fish populations and fisheries. The 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely in Adelaide, Australia, marked the 30th year since the first meeting was held in Athens, Greece, and provided an opportunity to reflect on progress made in the past 30 years and provide guidance for the future. We assembled a diverse team of individuals involved with the Adelaide WFC and reflected on the major challenges that faced fish and fisheries over the past 30 years, discussed progress toward overcoming those challenges, and then used themes that emerged during the Congress to identify issues and opportunities to improve sustainability in the world's fisheries for the next 30 years. Key future needs and opportunities identified include: rethinking fisheries management systems and modelling approaches, modernizing and integrating assessment and information systems, being responsive and flexible in addressing persistent and emerging threats to fish and fisheries, mainstreaming the human dimension of fisheries, rethinking governance, policy and compliance, and achieving equity and inclusion in fisheries. We also identified a number of cross-cutting themes including better understanding the role of fish as nutrition in a hungry world, adapting to climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge systems, thinking ahead with foresight science, and working together across scales. By reflecting on the past and thinking about the future, we aim to provide guidance for achieving our mutual goal of sustaining vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all. We hope that this prospective thinking can serve as a guide to (i) assess progress towards achieving this lofty goal and (ii) refine our path with input from new and emerging voices and approaches in fisheries science, management, and stewardship.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2017

Wind River Subbasin Restoration, annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities: Parr monitoring and instream passive integrated transponder detection, January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015

We used Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT)-tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS) to investigate life-histories, populations, and efficacy of habitat restoration actions for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Wind River subbasin, WA. Our tagging focused on parr in headwater areas of the subbasin and our PTISs provide information on movement of these parr, which is primarily, but not exclusively downstream. The PTISs also provide data on life-history aspects of other steelhead life-stages. The Wind River subbasin in southwest Washington State provides habitat for a population of wild Lower Columbia River steelhead and is an excellent watershed for long-term studies of population dynamics and responses to restoration of this wild population. Much data on steelhead population metrics have been gathered from the Wind River providing information on habitat restoration actions and ongoing research into steelhead life histories. Additionally, the Wind River is an excellent control watershed of an exclusivly wild steelhead population to which basins with hatchery programs can compare. No hatchery steelhead have been planted in the Wind River subbasin since 1994, and hatchery adults are estimated to be less than one percent of adults in any year (pers comm. Thomas Buehrens, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife). Numerous restoration actions have been implemented in the subbasin, including the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek in 2009. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), will contribute to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/ViewProgramStrategySummary/1), specifically the sub-strategies of: 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and to uncertainties research regarding differing life histories of a wild steelhead population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer 2015, we sampled and PIT-tagged age-0 and age-1 steelhead parr in headwater areas of the Wind River subbasin to characterize population traits and investigate variable life-histories, including growth and parr movement downstream prior to smolting. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged steelhead parr, smolts, and adults. Detections at the instream PTISs showed trends of parr 8 emigration during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. These data are increasing our understanding of varied life histories of juvenile steelhead; paired with other steelhead population work in the subbasin we hope to better understand the factors influencing parr movements. Monitoring of PIT-tagged fish over multiple years is providing information on contribution of various life-history strategies to smolt production and adult returns, as well as identifying factors influencing parr movement. Movements of PIT-tagged adult steelhead were also monitored with our instream PTISs. These data have provided information on timing of adult movements to various parts of the watershed, which allows us to assess adult returns to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Determination of adult use of tributary watersheds is providing data to contribute to evaluation of the efficacy of the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek. Hemlock Dam, located at rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek was removed in summer 2009 and had contributed to hydrologic impairment of Trout Creek. Evaluating restoration efforts is of interest to many managers and agencies so that funding and time are allocated for best results. The evaluation of various life-his

Washington↗

USGS2009

Patterns of migration and residency in coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii from two tributaries of the lower Columbia River

Coastal cutthroat trout Onchorhynchus clarkii clarkii life-history variants, migration and freshwater residency were monitored using stationary passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag arrays in two tributaries of the Columbia River from 2001 to 2005 (Abernathy Creek, river kilometre, rkm 76) and from 2002 to 2005 (Chinook River, rkm 6). In 2001-2003 and 2002-2003 (Abernathy and Chinook, respectively), 300-500 coastal O. c. clarkii were captured in each tributary by electrofishing and implanted with 23 mm PIT tags. PIT arrays monitored movements from the initiation of tagging through the spring of 2005. Rotary screw traps were also operated on both tributaries. In Abernathy Creek, 28% of tagged individuals were observed through either active capture or passive interrogation. Of these, 32% were identified as migrants and 68% were identified as residents. In the Chinook River, 48% of tagged fish were observed subsequent to tagging; 92% of these fish were migrants and only 8% were resident. In both tributaries, a greater proportion of resident fish were in the upper reaches. The majority of migrants (78-93%) moved the spring following tagging. Migrants leaving at age 2+ years tended to grow faster than those that migrated at age 3+ years or residents. Patterns of growth or growth opportunities may influence both patterns of life-history expression and the timing of migration. ?? 2009 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2011

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Polar Biology↗

USGS2014

Methow and Columbia Rivers studies: summary of data collection, comparison of database structure and habitat protocols, and impact of additional PIT tag interrogation systems to survival estimates, 2008-2012

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received funding from the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to provide monitoring and evaluation on the effectiveness of stream restoration efforts by Reclamation in the Methow River watershed. This monitoring and evaluation program is designed to partially fulfill Reclamation’s part of the 2008 Biological Opinion for the Federal Columbia River Power System that includes a Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) to protect listed salmon and steelhead across their life cycle. The target species in the Methow River for the restoration effort include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), UCR steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), which are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act. Since 2004, the USGS has completed two projects of monitoring and evaluation in the Methow River watershed. The first project focused on the evaluation of barrier removal and steelhead recolonization in Beaver Creek with Libby and Gold Creeks acting as controls. The majority of this work was completed by 2008, although some monitoring continued through 2012. The second project (2008–2012) evaluated the use and productivity of the middle Methow River reach (rkm 65–80) before the onset of multiple off-channel restoration projects planned by the Reclamation and Yakama Nation. The upper Methow River (upstream of rkm 80) and Chewuch River serve as reference reaches and the Methow River downstream of the Twisp River (downstream of rkm 65) serves as a control reach. Restoration of the M2 reach was initiated in 2012 and will be followed by a multi-year, intensive post-evaluation period. This report is comprised of three chapters covering different aspects of the work completed by the USGS. The first chapter is a review of data collection that documents the methods used and summarizes the work done by the USGS from 2008 through 2012. This data summary was designed to show some initial analysis and to disseminate summary information that could potentially be used in ongoing modeling efforts by USGS, Reclamation, and University of Idaho. The second chapter documents the database of fish and habitat data collected by USGS from 2004 through 2012 and compares USGS habitat protocols to the Columbia Habitat Monitoring Program (CHaMP) protocol. The third chapter is a survival analysis of fish moving through Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag interrogation systems in the Methow and Columbia Rivers. It examines the effects of adding PIT tags and/or PIT tag interrogation systems on survival estimates of juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Assessing the suitability of YY males and ZZ females as an invasive species population control method across life histories

Natural resource managers use tools to control invasive species. In theory, stocking YY males or ZZ females would allow managers to skew sex ratios until populations collapse. In combination with other suppression methods, such as removal, this approach could be incorporated into Integrated Pest Management plans. For example, fishery managers have stocked YY males to control isolated non-native brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) populations. However, life histories and demographic factors (e.g., lifespans) vary across species and could affect the feasibility of skewing sex ratios as an effective control strategy for a given population. Likewise, some species may have sex determinations that do not allow population control through sex-skewing methods. We compared five representative aquatic invasive species with global invasion ranges for potential control by skewing the sex ratio through closed population simulations: red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii ), zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ), lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush) , silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ), and Nile tilapia ( Oreochromis niloticus ). We determined that Nile tilapia, red swamp crayfish, and zebra mussels would be the most suitable to control through skewing the sex ratio assuming appropriate sex determination exists in the species. Lake trout could be eliminated by stocking YY males but would require either long stocking periods or high stocking numbers because of the long lifespan of the species. Silver carp populations were more difficult to crash because they live longer and produce many recruits. Broadly, these patterns demonstrated that short lived species lend themselves to control by skewing the sex ratio.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2020

Agricultural land-use change alters the structure and diversity of Amazon riparian forests

Riparian forests play key roles in protecting biodiversity and water resources , making them priorities for conservation in human-dominated landscapes, but fragmentation associated with expanding tropical croplands threatens their ecological integrity. We compared the structure of tropical riparian forests within intact and cropland catchments in a region of intensive soybean production in the southeastern Brazilian Amazon. We studied forest plots (varying from 120 to 210 m long) that bisected riparian zone forests and headwater streams in ten catchments. Four plots were within large areas of intact primary forest and six were in bands of protected riparian forest along streams within croplands as required by the Brazilian Forest Code. We found that riparian forests in croplands harbored fewer species of trees and seedlings/saplings, and had higher proportions of opportunistic, pioneer tree species. We also found greater variation in tree species composition, and higher internal dissimilarity in croplands compared with forests. The observed patterns in tree species composition were driven mainly by differences between riparian forest-cropland edges and those bordering intact upland forests. Forests nearest to streams in cropland and forested catchments were more similar to one another. Results suggest that wider buffers are needed at the edges of croplands to maintain riparian forest structure. The minimum 30-m riparian buffers now required by the Brazilian Forest Code may thus be insufficient to prevent long-term shifts in riparian forest species composition and structure.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2006

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Saguaro National Park, Rincon Mountain District

Executive Summary This report summarizes the results of the first comprehensive inventory of plants and vertebrates at the Rincon Mountain District (RMD) of Saguaro National Park, Arizona. From 2001 to 2003 we surveyed for vascular plants and vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) at the district to document the presence of species within its boundaries. Park staff also surveyed for medium and large mammals using infrared-triggered cameras from 1999 to 2005. This report summarizes the methods and results of these two efforts. Our spatial sampling design was ambitious and was one of the first of its kind in the region to colocate study sites for vegetation and vertebrates using a stratified random design. We also chose the location of some study sites non-randomly in areas that we thought would have the highest species richness. Because we used repeatable study designs and standardized field methods, these inventories can serve as the first step in a biological monitoring program for the district. We also provide an important overview of most previous survey efforts in the district. We use data from our inventory and other surveys to compile species lists and to assess inventory completeness. With the exception of plants, our survey effort was the most comprehensive ever undertaken in the district. We recorded a total of 801 plant and vertebrate species, including 50 species not previously found in the district (Table 1) of which five (all plants) are non-native species. Based on a review of our inventory and past research at the district, there have been a total of 1,479 species of plants and vertebrates found there. We believe inventories for all taxonomic groups are nearly complete. In particular, the plant, amphibian and reptile, and mammal species lists are the most complete of any comparably large natural area of the 'sky island' region of southern Arizona and adjacent Mexico. For each taxon-specific chapter we discuss patterns of species richness and environmental determinants of these patterns. For all groups except medium and large mammals, the low elevation stratum (<4,000 feet) contained the highest species richness, after accounting for differences in survey effort among strata. This is consistent with known patterns of species richness in the sky island mountain ranges. Using data on relative abundance for plants and birds, we were able to identify a number of distinct ecological communities, which were consistent with known patterns in the sky islands. Our review of species lists and park records reveals that the district has lost species, particularly plants and mammals, in the past few decades. Because of the district's close proximity to the rapidly growing city of Tucson, there are a number of development-related threats that could cause additional species loss or decline in abundance of some species. In particular, the increasing groundwater pumping near Rincon Creek, the most species-rich area in the park, is likely to impact the unique riparian vegetation and animals of that area. We discuss this and other demands on the ecological integrity of the district. We also recommend additional inventory, monitoring, and research studies.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Integrating occupancy modeling and interview data for corridor identification: A case study for jaguars in Nicaragua

Corridors are critical elements in the long-term conservation of wide-ranging species like the jaguar ( Panthera onca ). Jaguar corridors across the range of the species were initially identified using a GIS-based least-cost corridor model. However, due to inherent errors in remotely sensed data and model uncertainties, these corridors warrant field verification before conservation efforts can begin. We developed a novel corridor assessment protocol based on interview data and site occupancy modeling. We divided our pilot study area, in southeastern Nicaragua, into 71, 6 × 6 km sampling units and conducted 160 structured interviews with local residents. Interviews were designed to collect data on jaguar and seven prey species so that detection/non-detection matrices could be constructed for each sampling unit. Jaguars were reportedly detected in 57% of the sampling units and had a detection probability of 28%. With the exception of white-lipped peccary, prey species were reportedly detected in 82–100% of the sampling units. Though the use of interview data may violate some assumptions of the occupancy modeling approach for determining ‘proportion of area occupied’, we countered these shortcomings through study design and interpreting the occupancy parameter, psi, as ‘probability of habitat used’. Probability of habitat use was modeled for each target species using single state or multistate models. A combination of the estimated probabilities of habitat use for jaguar and prey was selected to identify the final jaguar corridor. This protocol provides an efficient field methodology for identifying corridors for easily-identifiable species, across large study areas comprised of unprotected, private lands.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2020

Wildfire and the ecological niche: Diminishing habitat suitability for an indicator species within semi‐arid ecosystems

Globally accelerating frequency and extent of wildfire threatens the persistence of specialist wildlife species through direct loss of habitat and indirect facilitation of exotic invasive species. Habitat specialists may be especially prone to rapidly changing environmental conditions because their ability to adapt lags behind the rate of habitat alteration. As a result, these populations may become increasingly susceptible to ecological traps by returning to suboptimal breeding habitats that were dramatically altered by disturbance. We demonstrate a multistage modeling approach that integrates habitat selection and survival during the key nesting life‐stage of a bird species of high conservation concern, the greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage‐grouse). We applied these spatially explicit models to a spatiotemporally robust dataset of sage‐grouse nest locations and fates across wildfire‐altered sagebrush ecosystems of the Great Basin ecoregion, western United States. Female sage‐grouse exhibited intricate habitat selection patterns that varied across regional gradients of ecological productivity among sagebrush communities, but often selected nest sites that disproportionately resulted in nest failure. For example, 23% of nests occurred in wildfire‐affected habitats characterized by reduced sagebrush cover and greater composition of invasive annual grasses. We found survival of nests was negatively associated with wildfire‐affected areas, but positively associated with higher elevations with increased ruggedness and overall shrub cover. Strong site fidelity likely drove sage‐grouse to continue nesting in habitats degraded by wildfire. Hence, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire may contribute disproportionately to reduced reproductive success by creating ecological traps that act as population sinks. Identifying such habitat mismatches between selection and survival facilitates deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving reduced geographic niche space and population decline at broad spatiotemporal scales, while guiding management actions to areas that would be most beneficial to the species.

Global Change Biology↗