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USGS2003

Residence times and nitrate transport in ground water discharging to streams in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

One of the major water-quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay is an overabundance of nutrients from the streams and rivers that discharge to the Bay. Some of these nutrients are from nonpoint sources such as atmospheric deposition, agricultural manure and fertilizer, and septic systems. The effects of efforts to control nonpoint sources, however, can be difficult to quantify because of the lag time between changes at the land surface and the response in the base-flow (ground water) component of streams. To help resource managers understand the lag time between implementation of management practices and subsequent response in the nutrient concentrations in the base-flow component of streamflow, a study of ground-water discharge, residence time, and nitrate transport in springs throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and in four smaller watersheds in selected hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMRs) was conducted. The four watersheds were in the Coastal Plain Uplands, Piedmont crystalline, Valley and Ridge carbonate, and Valley and Ridge siliciclastic HGMRs. A study of springs to estimate an apparent age of the ground water was based on analyses for concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons in water samples collected from 48 springs in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Results of the analysis indicate that median age for all the samples was 10 years, with the 25th percentile having an age of 7 years and the 75th percentile having an age of 13 years. Although the number of samples collected in each HGMR was limited, there did not appear to be distinct differences in the ages between the HGMRs. The ranges were similar between the major HGMRs above the Fall Line (modern to about 50 years), with only two HGMRs of small geographic extent (Piedmont carbonate and Mesozoic Lowland) having ranges of modern to about 10 years. The median values of all the HGMRs ranged from 7 to 11 years. Not enough samples were collected in the Coastal Plain for comparison. Spring samples showed slightly younger water under wet conditions than under dry conditions. The apparent age of water from wells, springs, and other ground-water discharge points in the four targeted watersheds was modern to 60 years, which was similar to the apparent ages from the spring study. In the Pocomoke River Watershed in the Coastal Plain Uplands HGMR, the apparent age of ground-water samples ranged from 0 to 60 years; the ages in the vicinity of the streams ranged from 0 to 23 years. The apparent ages of ground water in the Polecat Creek Watershed in the Piedmont crystalline HGMR ranged from 2 to 30 years. The apparent ages of water from wells in the Muddy Creek Watershed in the Valley and Ridge carbonate HGMR ranged from 10 to 20 years (except for a single sample that was 45 years). The ages in the East Mahantango Creek Watershed in the Valley and Ridge siliciclastic HGMR ranged from 0 to 50 years. The distribution in apparent age of water from wells in the targeted watersheds, however, generally is older than that for water from the springs. The median age of water from wells in the Muddy Creek Watershed, for example, was 15 years, compared to 11 years for the water from the springs in that watershed, and less than 10 years for water from all springs in the spring study. The similarity in the ranges in apparent age of water from the wells and from the springs shows that the samples from the targeted watersheds and springs have bracketed the range of apparent ages that would be expected in the shallow ground-water-flow systems throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The apparent age of water from individual wells does not necessarily represent the entire distribution of ages of the discharging ground water, and it is this distribution of ages that affects the response of nutrient concentrations in stream base flow. Nutrient-reduction scenarios were modeled for two watersheds for which the distribution of apparent ground-water ages was available, the East Mahantango Creek Watershed in the Valley and Ridge siliciclastic HGMR and the Locust Grove Watershed in the Coastal Plain Uplands HGMR. A nutrient-reduction scenario was created for East Mahantango Creek, where the average residence time was determined to be approximately 10 years on the basis of the output of particle tracking from a ground-water-ﬂow model. This scenario showed decreases of nearly 50 percent in base-ﬂow concentrations of nitrate in streams within the ﬁrst year after the reduction in nitrogen input; smaller reductions in nitrate concentration occurred in each subsequent year. A second scenario for that same watershed, in which the same 10-year average residence time was assumed and an exponential model was used for analysis, showed that a 50-percent reduction in base-ﬂow concentrations of nitrate could take up to 5 years. For the Locust Grove Watershed, in which an average residence time of 32 years was assumed, simulation with the exponential model showed that it may take more than 20 years to achieve a 50-percent reduction in base-ﬂow concentra-tions of nitrate. Although it was not possible to construct such scenarios for all watersheds, these examples show the range of possible responses to changes in nutrient inputs in two very different types of watersheds. Findings from this study include information on factors that affect ground-water age, spatial distribution of ages, and nitrogen transport. In the East Mahantango Creek Watershed and the Polecat Creek Watershed, the residence time varied spatially depending on the position of the ﬂow path, and temporally depending on the recharge conditions. Generally, ground water in areas near the stream had short residence times and the water in upland areas had longer residence times. Water traveling through deep layers had longer residence times than water traveling through shallow layers, and residence times were faster under high recharge conditions than low recharge conditions. Ground water in the Pocomoke Watershed exhibits a similar pattern: younger water discharges to small order streams in headwater basins and older water discharges to larger streams near the basin outlet. Factors affecting nitrogen transport in ground water include spatial and temporal variation in input sources, ground-water age, and aquifer processes that lead to denitriﬁcation. Spatial and temporal variations in nitrogen sources affect all the watersheds. Tributaries with higher inputs of nitrogen have higher concentrations in stream base ﬂow. Areas where nitrogen application rates have increased over time show an age-nitrate relation in ground-water samples. The age-nitrate relation can be affected by denitriﬁcation, which occurs in Pocomoke and East Mahantango Creeks but is not evident in Polecat and Muddy Creeks. In East Mahantango Creek, the level of denitriﬁcation is signiﬁcant in water with residence times greater than 20 years, but because this is a small component of overall ground-water discharge to a stream, it may not remove a signiﬁcant quantity of nitrogen from the system. Denitriﬁcation in Pocomoke Creek is signiﬁcant and appears to affect mostly older water discharging to streams. Therefore, if most of the nitrogen entering these two streams is associated with the discharge of younger ground water, denitriﬁcation may not greatly affect the overall nitrogen delivery to these streams. Other ﬁndings of this study show that nitrate in ground water discharging along preferential ﬂow paths may not be affected by natural processes, such as denitriﬁcation or uptake by riparian vegetation. Seeps to swales and ditches beneath the north uplands at Polecat Creek indicate a shallow water table and discharge of young ground water whereas the absence of such seeps on the south side indicates a deep water table and a lack of young ground water. Similarly, discharge at the base of the slope and to the valley wetland south of the creek but not north of the creek indicates a different role for the riparian forest on the two sides of the creek. In many of the systems where water discharges at the base of slopes to wetlands, ditches have been dug to drain the valley. Such drainage circumvents possible removal of nitrate by riparian vegetation. Because ground-water residence times do not appear directly related to the HGMRs, the targeting of management practices will achieve the most rapid response in water quality if directed at 1) watersheds with large agricultural sources of nitrate, 2) areas with the shortest ground-water-ﬂow paths and 3) areas not affected by signiﬁcant denitriﬁcation. The fastest response in stream base-ﬂow concentrations of nitrogen to implementation of management practices would be to implement practices in those areas with the highest loads rather than attempt to target practices on the basis of HGMR stratiﬁcation. Overall ﬁndings of the study indicate that 1) ground-water contributions to nitrogen in streamﬂow are signiﬁcant, 2) some response to management practices should be evident in base-ﬂow concentrations of nitrogen and loads within 1 to 5 years in watersheds with the shortest average residence times, but response time may be closer to 20 years in watersheds with longer average ground-water residence times, 3) the majority of the response in ground-water discharge to any changes in management practices will be distributed over a 10-year time period even in the watersheds with the fastest response times, and 4) given that half the streamﬂow is from ground-water discharge and the other half is runoff or soil water, about 90 percent of total water being discharged to a stream will be less than about a decade old; therefore, full implementation of nutrient reductions may result in improved streamwater quality in about a decade. In the more-likely scenario of gradual source reduction, the reduction in concentrations of nitrate in streams and aquifers would take longer than the examples shown here.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2024

Carotenoid skin ornaments as flexible indicators of male foraging behavior in a marine predator: Variation among Mexican colonies of brown booby (Sula leucogaster)

Carotenoid-dependent ornaments can reflect animals’ diet and foraging behaviors. However, this association should be spatially flexible and variable among populations to account for geographic variation in optimal foraging behaviors. We tested this hypothesis using populations of a marine predator (the brown booby, Sula leucogaster ) that forage across a gradient in ocean depth in and near the Gulf of California. Specifically, we quantified green chroma for two skin traits (foot and gular color) and their relationship to foraging location and diet of males, as measured via global positioning system tracking and stable carbon isotope analysis of blood plasma. Our three focal colonies varied in which foraging attributes were linked to carotenoid-rich ornaments. For gular skin, our data showed a shift from a benthic prey-green skin association in the shallow waters in the north to a pelagic prey-green skin association in the deepest waters to the south. Mean foraging trip duration and distance of foraging site from coast also predicted skin coloration in some colonies. Finally, brown booby colonies varied in which trait (foot versus gular skin color) was associated with foraging metrics. Overall, our results indicate that male ornaments reflect quality of diet and foraging–information that may help females select mates who are adapted to local foraging conditions and therefore, are likely to provide better parental care. More broadly, our results stress that diet-dependent ornaments are closely linked to animals’ environments and that we cannot assume ornaments or ornament signal content are ubiquitous within species, even when ornaments appear similar among populations.

Marine Biology↗

USGS2025

Combining ecological and genomic diversity surveys to inform conservation and restoration of an endangered wetland plant, soft salty bird’s-beak (Chloropyron molle ssp. molle)

Emergent tidal wetlands are declining globally as a result of sea level rise and land use change. This habitat loss can keenly affect rare plant species within wetlands, and may require restoration to meet species recovery goals related to retaining populations throughout species' ranges. Soft salty bird’s-beak ( Chloropyron molle ssp. molle ) is a federally- and state-endangered hemi-parasitic plant that occurs at the upper marsh transition zone in the San Francisco Bay–Delta, California, USA. We combined field surveys to document habitat associations and trends in abundance with genomic surveys to understand patterns of genetic structure in this rare endemic. We found that C . molle ssp. molle persisted at nine previously occupied marsh sites, although four sites (Hill Slough, MOTCO East, Fagan Marsh, and Joice Island) were smaller in population size than when surveyed in the 1990s. Additionally, twelve sites contained plots with suitable but unoccupied habitat that could be further assessed for restoration. Genomic analysis of over 40,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 253 individuals grouped C . molle ssp. molle into six to seven regional genetic clusters with isolation by distance, and confirmed that C . molle ssp. molle is genetically distinct from adjacent populations of its closest relative ( C . molle ssp. hispidum ). The western-most C . molle ssp. molle sites of Point Pinole and Fagan Marsh were the most genetically and geographically isolated and had the lowest genome-wide diversity. Heterozygosity in sets of genes associated with tidal elevation, salinity, and annual and summer precipitation varied independently across populations. Overall, these genomic patterns indicate that selecting donor sites with similar environmental conditions and utilizing composite seeding approaches from multiple sites could allow for local adaptation to a range of possible environmental conditions. This comprehensive survey of habitat and genomic patterns can allow for the development of restoration actions and build climate-adaptation planning to help prevent the loss of a rare plant.

California↗

USGS2000

Estimated flood frequency and corresponding water-surface elevations at the confluence of the Potomac and Shenandoah rivers, Harpers Ferry, West Virginia

The Harpers Ferry National Historical Park is located at the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia and has historically been affected by flooding from both rivers. Because the drainage areas of both rivers are large and drain geographically separate regions, either river may contribute individually to flooding, or the combination of flows may be the source of flooding. Previous flood-frequency analyses have been conducted at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations upstream on the Potomac River at Shepherdstown, West Virginia and on the Shenandoah River at Millville, West Virginia.; and downstream on the Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland. A flood-frequency analysis for Harpers Ferry can be expected to fall within the streamflows and recurrence intervals predicted at the surrounding stations. The prediction of corresponding water-surface elevations at Harpers Ferry is difficult, however, because of differences in rainfall distribution across the two regions and the timing of the peaks on both rivers.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Differentiating sediment sources using sediment fingerprinting techniques, in the Sprague River Basin, South-Central Oregon

Identifying sources of sediment to streams in the Sprague River Basin, in south-central Oregon, is important for restoration efforts that are focused on reducing sediment erosion and transport. Reducing sediment loads in these streams also contributes to compliance with the total maximum daily load reduction requirements for total phosphorus in this basin. In the Sprague River Basin, phosphorus occurs in surface waters in both dissolved phase and particulate phase, and particulate phosphorus is readily transported in streams on fine-grained suspended sediments, which eventually deposit in Upper Klamath Lake. The lake has seasonal blooms of cyanobacteria that require phosphorus for growth and degrade water-quality conditions, violating State water-quality standards and creating conditions that are stressful to two endangered suckers that reside in the lake. Identifying sources of sediment to the Sprague River could help inform restoration actions by determining the principal locations in the basin contributing fine sediment to the river. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a proof-of-concept study to determine if sediment fingerprinting can differentiate sources of bank erosion by source material, basin, river reach, and soil horizon. The sediment fingerprinting approach uses properties of streambank and streambed sediment to differentiate between multiple sediment sources by determining a composite signature, or fingerprint. The composite fingerprint is established by combining fingerprint properties from laboratory results of elemental analysis, stable isotopes, and total carbon and nitrogen. The methods for differentiating sediment samples for this study include grouping bank and bed samples by basin, river reach, and soil horizon, and using non-parametric statistics to determine which fingerprint properties could be used to differentiate the sample groups. Results indicate that fingerprint properties differentiated source material, river reach, and basin, and were more successful at differentiating samples grouped by geographic location (basin and reach) compared to source material. Source material (banks, bed, levees) were differentiated with three fingerprint properties—Antimony (Sb), copper (Cu), and manganese (Mn). The basin category (South Fork and main-stem Sprague River) differentiated the South Fork and main stem with stable nitrogen isotopes (δ 15 N), aluminum (Al), silicon (Si), and vanadium (V). Specific river reaches within the study area were differentiated with 11 different fingerprint properties. These results can be used for apportionment studies using suspended sediment samples and mixing models to determine sediment source contributions within the basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Development of regression equations for the estimation of the magnitude and frequency of floods at rural, unregulated gaged and ungaged streams in Puerto Rico through water year 2017

The methods of computation and estimates of the magnitude of flood flows were updated for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance levels for 91 streamgages on the main island of Puerto Rico by using annual peak-flow data through 2017. Since the previous flood frequency study in 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey has collected additional peak flows at additional streamgages, and Puerto Rico has experienced numerous flood events. This updated study was performed using longer annual peak-flow datasets from more stations to provide more representative equations to predict flood flows. Screening criteria for these streamgages included 10 or more years of annual peak-flow data, unregulated flow, and less than 10 percent impervious drainage area. The magnitude and frequency of floods at selected streamgages in Puerto Rico were estimated using updated methods outlined in Bulletin 17C. The new procedures include a regional skew analysis that incorporates Bayesian regression techniques, the Expected Moments Algorithm to better represent missing record and estimate parameters of the log-Pearson Type III distribution, and the Multiple Grubbs-Beck test for low outlier detection. Regional regression equations were developed to estimate peak-flow statistics at ungaged locations by using selected basin and climatic characteristics as explanatory variables. These variables were determined from digital spatial datasets and geographic information systems by using the most recent data available. Ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to filter the basin characteristics and determine two separate regions, region 1 (west) and region 2 (east), based on residuals. A generalized least-squares procedure was used to account for cross-correlation of sites and develop the final set of equations that have drainage area as the only explanatory variable. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 18.7 to 46.7 percent in region 1 and 33.4 to 57.6 percent in region 2 for all annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) examined. The updated statistics showed a greater accuracy of prediction when compared to those from the previous study using drainage area as the only explanatory variable for all AEPs examined in region 1 and the 0.01 and 0.002 AEP flows for region 2. When compared to equations developed in the previous study that have drainage area, mean annual rainfall, and (or) depth-to-rock as explanatory variables, the updated statistics show a greater accuracy of prediction in region 1 at AEP flows of 0.02 and lower (that is, higher flows). Those developed for region 2 do not show a greater accuracy of prediction for any AEP flows when compared to the equations having multiple explanatory variables in the previous study. The calculated regression equations, basin characteristics, and at-site statistics will be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey web application, StreamStats ( https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ ). This application allows users to select a location on a stream, whether gaged or ungaged, to obtain estimates of basin characteristics and flow statistics.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS1987

GEOGRAPHIC ESTIMATION OF RUNOFF-MODEL PARAMETERS.

The U. S. Geological Survey is developing techniques to estimate and evaluate unit-hydrograph and loss-rate parameter values for rainfall-runoff models using Geographic Information System (GIS) procedures. The data base includes basin, soil, and climatological characteristics that will be stored in a GIS, and unit-hydrograph and loss-rate parameters obtained from calibration of a commonly used flood-hydrograph rainfall-runoff model for 616 storms in 98 gaged drainage basins. Development of unit-hydrograph and loss-rate parameter-estimation techniques includes statistical methods (exploratory data analysis, regression analysis, and categorical data analysis) to relate the model parameters to hydrologic characteristics. The estimation techniques are evaluated by use of error analysis of simulated hydrograph characteristics (peak discharge, flood volume, and time to peak discharge). The hydrographs will be simulated with parameters estimated by the techniques for (1) 102 storms occurring at 36 gaged basins; and (2) a large storm system (one which produced floods with a 50-to 100-year recurrence interval).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Modeling watershed-scale impacts of stormwater management with traditional versus low impact development design

Stormwater runoff and associated pollutants from urban areas in the greater Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) impair local streams and downstream ecosystems, despite urbanized land comprising only 7% of the CBW area. More recently, stormwater best management practices (BMPs) have been implemented in a low impact development (LID) manner to treat stormwater runoff closer to its source. This approach included the development of a novel BMP model to compare traditional and LID design, pioneering the use of comprehensively digitized storm sewer infrastructure and BMP design connectivity with spatial patterns in a geographic information system at the watershed scale. The goal was to compare total watershed pollutant removal efficiency in two study watersheds with differing spatial patterns of BMP design (traditional and LID), by quantifying the improved water quality benefit of LID BMP design. An estimate of uncertainty was included in the modeling framework by using ranges for BMP pollutant removal efficiencies that were based on the literature. Our model, using Monte Carlo analysis, predicted that the LID watershed removed approximately 78 kg more nitrogen, 3 kg more phosphorus, and 1,592 kg more sediment per square kilometer as compared with the traditional watershed on an annual basis. Our research provides planners a valuable model to prioritize watersheds for BMP design based on model results or in optimizing BMP selection.

Maryland↗

USGS2016

Regional patterns of total nitrogen concentrations in the National Rivers and Streams Assessment

Patterns of nitrogen (N) concentrations in streams sampled by the National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) were examined semiquantitatively to identify regional differences in stream N levels. The data were categorized and analyzed by watershed size classes to reveal patterns of the concentrations that are consistent with the spatial homogeneity in natural and anthropogenic characteristics associated with regional differences in N levels. Ecoregions and mapped information on human activities including agricultural practices were used to determine the resultant regions. Marked differences in N levels were found among the nine aggregations of ecoregions used to report the results of the NRSA. We identified distinct regional patterns of stream N concentrations within the reporting regions that are associated with the characteristics of specific Level III ecoregions, groups of Level III ecoregions, groups of Level IV ecoregions, certain geographic characteristics within ecoregions, and/or particular watershed size classes. We described each of these regions and illustrated their areal extent and median and range in N concentrations. Understanding the spatial variability of nutrient concentrations in flowing waters and the apparent contributions that human and nonhuman factors have on different sizes of streams and rivers is critical to the development of effective water quality assessment and management plans. This semi-quantitative analysis is also intended to identify areas within which more detailed quantitative work can be conducted to determine specific regional factors associated with variations in stream N concentrations.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗

USGS2013

Automated mapping of mineral groups and green vegetation from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery with an example from the San Juan Mountains, Colorado

Multispectral satellite data acquired by the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (TM) sensors are being used to populate an online Geographic Information System (GIS) of the spatial occurrence of mineral groups and green vegetation across the western conterminous United States and Alaska. These geospatial data are supporting U.S. Geological Survey national-scale mineral deposit database development and other mineral resource and geoenvironmental research as a means of characterizing mineral exposures related to mined and unmined hydrothermally altered rocks and mine waste. This report introduces a new methodology for the automated analysis of Landsat TM data that has been applied to more than 180 scenes covering the western United States. A map of mineral groups and green vegetation produced using this new methodology that covers the western San Juan Mountains, Colorado, and the Four Corners Region is presented. The map is provided as a layered GeoPDF and in GIS-ready digital format. TM data analysis results from other well-studied and mineralogically characterized areas with strong hydrothermal alteration and (or) supergene weathering of near-surface sulfide minerals are also shown and compared with results derived from ASTER data analysis.

Colorado↗

USGS2000

Molecular analysis of population genetic structure and recolonization of rainbow trout following the Cantara spill

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence and allelic frequency data for 12 microsatellite loci were used to analyze population genetic structure and recolonization by rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss , following the 1991 Cantara spill on the upper Sacramento River, California. Genetic analyses were performed on 1,016 wild rainbow trout collected between 1993 and 1996 from the mainstem and in 8 tributaries. Wild trout genotypes were compared to genotypes for 79 Mount Shasta Hatchery rainbow trout. No genetic heterogeneity was found 2 years after the spill (1993) between tributary populations and geographically proximate mainstem fish, suggesting recolonization of the upper mainstem directly from adjacent tributaries. Trout collections made in 1996 showed significant year-class genetic variation for mtDNA and microsatellites when compared to fish from the same locations in 1993. Five years after the spill, mainstem populations appeared genetically mixed with no significant allelic frequency differences between mainstem populations and geographically proximate tributary trout. In our 1996 samples, we found no significant genetic differences due to season of capture (summer or fall) or sampling technique used to capture rainbow trout, with the exception of trout collected by electrofishing and hook and line near Prospect Avenue. Haplotype and allelic frequencies in wild rainbow trout populations captured in the upper Sacramento River and its tributaries were found to differ genetically from Mount Shasta Hatchery trout for both years, with the notable exception of trout collected in the lower mainstem river near Shasta Lake, where mtDNA and microsatellite data both suggested upstream colonization by hatchery fish from the reservoir. These data suggest that the chemical spill in the upper Sacramento River produced significant effects over time on the genetic population structure of rainbow trout throughout the entire upper river basin.

California↗

USGS2012

Effects of future climate change, CO 2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 , and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO 2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO 2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO 2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO 2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO 2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2019

Negative frequency-dependent foraging behaviour in a generalist herbivore (Alces alces) and its stabilizing influence on food-web dynamics

1. Resource selection is widely appreciated to be context‐dependent and shaped by both biological and abiotic factors. However, few studies have empirically assessed the extent to which selective foraging behaviour is dynamic and varies in response to environmental conditions for free‐ranging animal populations. 2. Here, we assessed the extent that forage selection fluctuated in response to different environmental conditions for a free‐ranging herbivore, moose (Alces alces), in Isle Royale National Park, over a 10‐year period. More precisely, we assessed how moose selection for coniferous versus deciduous forage in winter varied between geographic regions and in relation to (a) the relative frequency of forage types in the environment (e.g. frequency‐dependent foraging behaviour), (b) moose abundance, (c) predation rate (by grey wolves) and (d) snow depth. These factors are potentially important for their influence on the energetics of foraging. We also built a series of food‐chain models to assess the influence of dynamic foraging strategies on the stability of food webs. 3. Our analysis indicates that moose exhibited negative frequency dependence, by selectively exploiting rare resources. Frequency‐dependent foraging was further mediated by density‐dependent processes, which are likely to be predation, moose abundance or some combination of both. In particular, frequency dependence was weaker in years when predation risk was high (i.e. when the ratio of moose to wolves was relatively low). Selection for conifers was also slightly weaker during deep snow years. 4. The food‐chain analysis indicates that the type of frequency‐dependent foraging strategy exhibited by herbivores had important consequences for the stability of ecological communities. In particular, the dynamic foraging strategy that we observed in the empirical analysis (i.e. negative frequency dependence being mediated by density‐dependent processes) was associated with more stable food web dynamics compared to fixed foraging strategies. 5. The results of this study indicated that forage selection is a complex ecological process, varying in response to both biological (predation and moose density) and abiotic factors (snow depth) and over relatively small spatial scales (between regions). This study also provides a useful framework for assessing the influence of other aspects of foraging behaviour on the stability of food web dynamics.

Michigan↗

USGS1979

Nature of firm expectations in petroleum exploration

Recent interest in the state of the United States domestic petroleum industry has resulted in an increased concern regarding the ability of current large- scale econometric models to provide useful predictions about supply price sensitivity and about the effects of differing policy options on future supply. The petroleum industry's exploration and reserve response functions appear to have eluded traditional modeling approaches. Properties of firm exploration behavior are obscured when highly aggregated data are used. Data pertaining to different geographical areas are frequently combined using dummy variables to denote characteristics peculiar to a region. In these models price tends to be more related to the quality of the crude oil than to incremental costs of exploration and development of individual deposits. The effect of price changes on expected supplies is clearly moderated by the level of resource depletion for a particular basin. A major obstacle to carrying out a less aggregated analysis has been the lack of data on specific basins, but another obstacle has been the belief that field behavior is too erratic to model successful.

Land Economics↗

USGS2020

Distribution of selected hydrogeologic characteristics of the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers, Long Island, New York

The Pleistocene- and Cretaceous-age sediments underlying Long Island, New York, compose an important sole-source aquifer system that is nearly 2,000 feet thick in some areas. Sediment characteristics of importance for water supply include water-transmitting properties—horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity—and the distribution of lignite, which provides an important control on oxygen-reduction (redox) conditions and water quality, in Cretaceous-age aquifers. Several decades of urbanization and the associated need to meet water demand have generated abundant data on the lithology of the aquifer sediments and the potential for an improved regional-scale understanding of this aquifer system. There is a range in the source and quality of the information, but large amounts of data, even of lesser quality, can yield insight into important aquifer characteristics. The distribution of the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and the probability of occurrence of lignite and clay in the aquifer were developed for this study from a database of drilling records and geophysical logs. Lithologic descriptions were categorized into a set of standardized codes, which in turn, were aggregated into a set of general codes for the Pleistocene-age upper glacial and Cretaceous-age Magothy aquifers. General values of hydraulic conductivity were assigned to each code from published estimates on Long Island and analogous hydrogeologic environments on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A binary value of 1 or 0 was assigned to each coded interval to indicate the presence or absence of lignite or based on keywords in the lithologic descriptions. This information was assembled into a geographic information system database that was queried sequentially and used to develop gridded values of each aquifer characteristic by use of ordinary kriging for a set of grids, each representing 10-foot-thick planar slices for the entire vertical thickness of each aquifer. These sets of grids, taken as a whole, represent a quasi-three-dimensional representation of each aquifer characteristic in both the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers. The analysis of hydraulic conductivity shows patterns that generally reflect known depositional features of each unit and are consistent with the current understanding of the geology of the aquifers. Spatial patterns in the upper glacial aquifer show contrasts in estimated hydraulic conductivity: lower values occur in inland areas and likely are associated with glacial moraines; higher values generally occur to the south in association with glacial outwash. Higher values of hydraulic conductivity in the Magothy aquifer, which resulted from deltaic deposition, generally occur in the basal parts of the unit, are associated with channel-lag deposits and are found in parts of the aquifer known for large well yields. Lower values of hydraulic conductivity generally occur in middle parts of the aquifer associated with deposition in overbank and wetland environments. The probability of lignite occurrence is highest in this same vertical zone of the Magothy aquifer, consistent with deposition in wetland environments. The probability of lignite occurrence generally is highest along the southern shore of the island. Lignite occurrence generally is consistent with water-quality patterns; water quality in these same areas indicate chemically reducing conditions and redox-related iron biofouling commonly occurs.

New York↗

USGS2013

Prediction, time variance, and classification of hydraulic response to recharge in two karst aquifers

Many karst aquifers are rapidly filled and depleted and therefore are likely to be susceptible to changes in short-term climate variability. Here we explore methods that could be applied to model site-specific hydraulic responses, with the intent of simulating these responses to different climate scenarios from high-resolution climate models. We compare hydraulic responses (spring flow, groundwater level, stream base flow, and cave drip) at several sites in two karst aquifers: the Edwards aquifer (Texas, USA) and the Madison aquifer (South Dakota, USA). A lumped-parameter model simulates nonlinear soil moisture changes for estimation of recharge, and a time-variant convolution model simulates the aquifer response to this recharge. Model fit to data is 2.4% better for calibration periods than for validation periods according to the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, which ranges from 0.53 to 0.94 for validation periods. We use metrics that describe the shapes of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) obtained from convolution modeling to make comparisons in the distribution of response times among sites and between aquifers. Time-variant IRFs were applied to 62% of the sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) of metrics describing the shapes of the IRFs indicates three principal components that together account for 84% of the variability in IRF shape: the first is related to IRF skewness and temporal spread and accounts for 51% of the variability; the second and third largely are related to time-variant properties and together account for 33% of the variability. Sites with IRFs that dominantly comprise exponential curves are separated geographically from those dominantly comprising lognormal curves in both aquifers as a result of spatial heterogeneity. The use of multiple IRF metrics in PCA is a novel method to characterize, compare, and classify the way in which different sites and aquifers respond to recharge. As convolution models are developed for additional aquifers, they could contribute to an IRF database and a general classification system for karst aquifers.

South Dakota, Texas↗

USGS2011

Description and testing of the Geo Data Portal: Data integration framework and Web processing services for environmental science collaboration

Interest in sharing interdisciplinary environmental modeling results and related data is increasing among scientists. The U.S. Geological Survey Geo Data Portal project enables data sharing by assembling open-standard Web services into an integrated data retrieval and analysis Web application design methodology that streamlines time-consuming and resource-intensive data management tasks. Data-serving Web services allow Web-based processing services to access Internet-available data sources. The Web processing services developed for the project create commonly needed derivatives of data in numerous formats. Coordinate reference system manipulation and spatial statistics calculation components implemented for the Web processing services were confirmed using ArcGIS 9.3.1, a geographic information science software package. Outcomes of the Geo Data Portal project support the rapid development of user interfaces for accessing and manipulating environmental data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1996

The potential for water-quality degradation of interconnected aquifers in west-central Florida

Thousands of deep artesian wells were drilled into the Upper Floridan aquifer in west-central Florida prior to well-drilling regulations adopted in the 1970's. The wells were usually completed with a short length of casing through the unconsolidated sediments and were left open to multiple aquifers containing water of varying quality. These open boreholes serve as a potential source of water-quality degradation within the aquifers when vertical internal borehole flow is induced by hydraulic-head differences. This potential for water-quality degradation exists in west-central Florida where both the intermediate aquifer system and Upper Floridan aquifer exist. Measurements of caliper, temperature, gamma, fluid conductivity, and flow were obtained in 87 wells throughout west-central Florida to determine the occurrence of interaquifer borehole flow between the intermediate aquifer system and the Upper Floridan aquifer. Flow measurements were made using an impeller flowmeter, a heat-pulse flowmeter, and a video camera with an impeller flowmeter attachment. Of the 87 wells measured with the impeller flowmeter, 17 had internal flow which ranged from 10 to 300 gallons per minute. A heat-pulse flowmeter was used in 19 wells in which flow was not detected using the impeller flowmeter. Of these 19 wells, 18 had internal flow which ranged from 0.3 to 10 gallons per minute. Additionally, water-quality samples were collected from specific contributing zones in wells that had internal flow. Analysis of geophysical and water-quality data indicates degradation of water quality has occurred from mineralized ground water flowing upward from the Upper Floridan aquifer into the intermediate aquifer system through both uncased boreholes and corroded black-iron well casings. In areas where there is a downward component of flow, data indicate that potable water from the intermediate aquifer system is artificially recharging the Upper Floridan aquifer through open boreholes. A geographical area was defined where there is a potential for water-quality degradation due to improperly cased wells. This area was delineated based on where there is an upward component of ground-water flow and where there is an occurrence of poor-quality water. The delineated area includes parts of Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, De Soto, and Hardee Counties. To prevent further contamination of the aquifers, the Southwest Florida Water Management District began the Quality of Water Improvement Program in 1974 to restore hydrologic conditions altered by improperly constructed wells or deteriorating casings. As of May 1994, more than 3,000 wells have been inspected and approximately 1,350 have been plugged. To minimize interaquifer contamination, existing wells, especially ones with black-iron casing, should be inspected and, if necessary, repaired with new casing or plugged.

Florida↗