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USGS2015

Western water and climate change

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

Genetic status and conservation of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in Glacier National Park

Invasive hybridization is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi . Large protected areas, where nonhybridized populations are interconnected and express historical life history and genetic diversity, provide some of the last ecological and evolutionary strongholds for conserving this species. Here, we describe the genetic status and distribution of Westslope Cutthroat Trout throughout Glacier National Park, Montana. Admixture between Westslope Cutthroat Trout and introduced Rainbow Trout O. mykiss and Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii bouvieri was estimated by genotyping 1,622 fish collected at 115 sites distributed throughout the Columbia, Missouri, and South Saskatchewan River drainages. Currently, Westslope Cutthroat Trout occupy an estimated 1,465 km of stream habitat and 45 lakes (9,218 ha) in Glacier National Park. There was no evidence of introgression in samples from 32 sites along 587 km of stream length (40% of the stream kilometers currently occupied) and 17 lakes (2,555 ha; 46% of the lake area currently occupied). However, nearly all (97%) of the streams and lakes that were occupied by nonhybridized populations occurred in the Columbia River basin. Based on genetic status (nonnative genetic admixture ≤ 10%), 36 Westslope Cutthroat Trout populations occupying 821 km of stream and 5,482 ha of lakes were identified as “conservation populations.” Most of the conservation populations ( N = 27; 736 km of stream habitat) occurred in the Columbia River basin, whereas only a few geographically restricted populations were found in the South Saskatchewan River ( N = 7; 55 km) and Missouri River ( N = 2; 30 km) basins. Westslope Cutthroat Trout appear to be at imminent risk of genomic extinction in the South Saskatchewan and Missouri River basins, whereas populations in the Columbia River basin are widely distributed and conservation efforts are actively addressing threats from hybridization and other stressors. A diverse set of pro-active management approaches will be required to conserve, protect, and restore Westslope Cutthroat Trout populations in Glacier National Park throughout the 21st century.

Glacier National Park↗

USGS2007

Avifaunal responses to fire in southwestern montane forests along a burn severity gradient

The effects of burn severity on avian communities are poorly understood, yet this information is crucial to fire management programs. To quantify avian response patterns along a burn severity gradient, we sampled 49 random plots (2001-2002) at the 17 351-ha Cerro Grande Fire (2000) in New Mexico, USA. Additionally, pre-fire avian surveys (1986-1988, 1990) created a unique opportunity to quantify avifaunal changes in 13 pre-fire transects (resampled in 2002) and to compare two designs for analyzing the effects of unplanned disturbances: after-only analysis and before-after comparisons. Distance analysis was used to calculate densities. We analyzed after-only densities for 21 species using gradient analysis, which detected a broad range of responses to increasing burn severity: (I) large significant declines, (II) weak, but significant declines, (III) no significant density changes, (IV) peak densities in low- or moderate-severity patches, (V) weak, but significant increases, and (VI) large significant increases. Overall, 71% of the species included in the after-only gradient analysis exhibited either positive or neutral density responses to fire effects across all or portions of the severity gradient (responses III-VI). We used pre/post pairs analysis to quantify density changes for 15 species using before-after comparisons; spatiotemporal variation in densities was large and confounded fire effects for most species. Only four species demonstrated significant effects of burn severity, and their densities were all higher in burned compared to unburned forests. Pre- and post-fire community similarity was high except in high-severity areas. Species richness was similar pre- and post-fire across all burn severities. Thus, ecosystem restoration programs based on the assumption that recent severe fires in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests have overriding negative ecological effects are not supported by our study of post-fire avian communities. This study illustrates the importance of quantifying burn severity and controlling confounding sources of spatiotemporal variation in studies of fire effects. After-only gradient analysis can be an efficient tool for quantifying fire effects. This analysis can also augment historical data sets that have small samples sizes coupled with high non-process variation, which limits the power of before-after comparisons. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

Habitat and fish assemblage associations and current status of northern leatherside chub Lepidomeda copei in western Wyoming

Human activities have extensively altered native fish assemblages and their habitats in the western United States. Conservation and restoration for long-term persistence of these fishes requires knowledge of their distributional patterns and life history requirements. Northern leatherside chub Lepidomeda copei (hereafter northern leatherside) is a cyprinid native to the Snake and Bear River Basins of Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah, and it is believed to have declined in distribution relative to historical records. To address information gaps in the species' ecology and assess its status in the state, the objectives of this study were first to document the distribution (2010–2011) of northern leatherside in Wyoming and then to examine habitat factors related to the entire fish assemblage and to evaluate specific habitat associations of northern leatherside in the Bear River Basin, Wyoming. In the Bear River and Upper Snake River Basins, we documented the distribution of northern leatherside and compared it to the previously known distribution. Across the Bear River Basin, we used habitat measurements to assess abiotic features related to the distribution and abundance of northern leatherside. Northern leatherside was found across the Bear River Basin and was present in 2 streams each in the Upper Snake River and Green River Basins in Wyoming. Populations in Wyoming appear to represent the core of northern leatherside range, and our work provided a finer-scale delineation of the species' occurrence. Northern leatherside was collected from a variety of habitats, but multivariate analyses and occurrence modeling indicated it was associated with increased channel depth and depth variability, and positively associated with other native fishes (including mountain sucker Catostomus platyrhynchus, redside shiner Richardsonius balteatus, and speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus). These findings on the distribution and ecology of northern leatherside provide important new information to assist successful management and conservation efforts within Wyoming and across the species' range.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats. Objectives Forecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatially explicit (270 m 2 ) climate/land use/water prioritization scenarios. Mapping potential future dynamic flooded habitat used by waterbirds and other wetland-dependent wildlife to inform management decisions. Methods We integrated a climate-driven hydrologic water use model with a spatially explicit land change model, to examine stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land change, climate, and water use and their impacts on future habitat availability. Results Declining water availability is the dominant driver of habitat loss across scenarios. The hot/dry scenarios showed the greatest declines in January flooded area by 2101—an important month for overwintering waterbirds. In contrast, higher water supplies in wet climates drive perennial cropland conversion and loss of potential habitat. Potential flooded cropland declined (25 and 33%) under warmer/wetter climate conditions due to this conversion to perennial crops, exposing habitat vulnerability. Conclusion Climate-driven loss of water availability had a greater impact on flooded habitat availability than land-use change. When combined, climate change and the conversion of potentially flooded cropland to perennial cropland will threaten future waterbird habitat particularly in January, the peak of the migratory bird season, even when habitat restoration goals are met. Stakeholder-informed scenario analysis can identify target areas for potential habitat change, vulnerability, and conservation.

California↗

USGS2017

Long-term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States

Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long-term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon-juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration-focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation-adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70-year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2020

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 19 Report)

A primary focus of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018; Winkler et al. 2018). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities in FY19 followed an FY19 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015), Department of Interior Secretarial Order #3347 (Conservation Stewardship and Outdoor Recreation), and Department of Interior Leadership Priority #1 (Create a conservation stewardship legacy second only to Teddy Roosevelt). Research activities in FY19 centered on landscape genetics, collecting seeds in preparation for experimental common gardens, and planning and trials in support of experimental drought gardens. These activities were supported by three biological technicians, one of which was jointly funded by the Ecological Society of America for six pay periods. Most of the field-related activities, including plant trait measurement, seed/tissue collecting, and GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) experimental treatments at the Canyonlands Research Center near Moab, UT were assigned to these technicians. Contrary to the drought conditions the pervaded the Colorado Plateau in FY18, plentiful spring precipitation resulted in easily-collected plant tissue and seed collections. However, the cool and wet spring delayed the phenology of early blooming species, which caused difficulties for timing seed collecting. Furthermore, seed collecting for late blooming species was difficult because of lower than average monsoon precipitation. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY19, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expert guidance and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2024

Bird community response to one decade of riparian restoration along the Colorado River delta in Mexico

We assessed the response of breeding birds to one decade of riparian restoration in the Colorado River delta including active vegetation management since 2010 and various environmental water deliveries since 2014. Bird surveys were conducted from 2002 to 2021 at 230 bird count stations distributed along five river reaches with different hydrogeomorphic characteristics, across 7 routes in actively revegetated (“restored”) sites, and 20 routes in non-actively revegetated (“control”) sites. Both restored and control sites could be affected by environmental flows/water deliveries. We examined the temporal trajectories of four community-aggregated metrics for 53 breeding species, and the number of detections (counts) for the 30 most frequently detected among the 53 species at the restored and control sites, using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Diversity and richness of the 53 breeding species were highest in the wettest river reach, but higher than in control sites in only one restored site within one of the driest river reaches. The avian community was recovering in control sites, ameliorating a long-term declining trend, perhaps indicating indirect positive effects of active restoration. The response to restoration of the 30 most common species was species-specific. Ten of the 16 riparian forest specialist species had more detections in restored sites of the wettest reach (vs. only two in the driest reach). Species with preference for agricultural fields and generalists had the highest counts along the entire delta. Generalists generally decreased following revegetation, which was another positive restoration effect. Our results will be used to help guide future restoration efforts.

Ecological Engineering↗

USGS2019

Amphibian monitoring in hardwood forests: Optimizing methods for contaminant‐based compensatory restorations

Amphibians such as frogs, toads, and salamanders provide important services in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and have been proposed as useful indicators of progress and success for ecological restoration projects. Limited guidance is available, however, on the costs and benefits of different amphibian monitoring techniques that might be applied to sites restored in compensation for contaminant injury. We used a variety of methods to document the amphibian communities present at 4 restored bottomland hardwood sites in Indiana, USA, and to compare the information return and cost of each method. For 1 method—automated recording units—we also modeled the effect of varying levels of sampling effort on the number of species detected, using sample-based rarefaction and Bayesian nonlinear (Michaelis–Menten) mixed effects models. We detected 13 amphibian species across the restored sites, including 2 species of conservation concern in Indiana—northern leopard frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ) and Blanchard's cricket frogs ( Acris blanchardi ). Sites across a range of restoration ages demonstrated encouraging returns of amphibian communities. Although more mature sites showed greater species richness, recently restored sites still provided important habitat for amphibians, including species of conservation concern. Among the 4 methods compared, amphibian rapid assessment yielded the highest number of species detected and the greatest catch per unit effort, with the lowest per-site cost. Our analysis of level-of-effort effects in the rarefied acoustic data found that number of nights sampled was a better predictor of observed species richness than the number of hours sampled within a night or minutes sampled within an hour. These data will assist restoration practitioners in selecting amphibian monitoring methods appropriate for their site characteristics and budget.

Indiana↗

USGS2019

Age and growth of Freshwater Drum and Gizzard Shad occupying two reservoir-river complexes with different groundwater contributions

Restoring groundwater flow is a management option that improves water temperature regimes and benefits fishes. Although this strategy applies more readily to river systems, the thermal character of reservoirs is heavily influenced by inflowing rivers. We examined differences in age, structure, and growth of both Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum that occupy catchments with varying groundwater contributions in the south‐central United States. Seepage run data indicated that the Kiamichi River was losing surface water to groundwater in summer 2016, whereas groundwater inflows were apparent in the Elk River basin. Summer 2016 data showed that the Elk River had cooler water temperatures than the Kiamichi River and Grand Lake O’ the Cherokees water temperatures were similar to those in the incoming Elk River. We found higher densities of older Freshwater Drum and Gizzard Shad (maximums of 32 and 8 years old, respectively) in samples from the Grand basin than among fish that were sampled from the Kiamichi River basin (21 and 6 years old, respectively). Freshwater Drum grew at similar rates in both basins even though they reached larger maximum lengths in the Grand basin (649 mm TL) than in the Kiamichi River basin (600 mm). The average asymptotic length was greater for the Kiamichi population ( L ∞ = 613 mm) than for the Grand population ( L ∞ = 557 mm). Gizzard Shad from the Grand basin were larger than those from the Kiamichi River basin, though the latter population grew faster initially (Brody growth coefficient: K = 0.787 versus K = 0.179, respectively), but they had smaller asymptotic length ( L ∞ = 206 mm versus L ∞ = 343 mm). The role that groundwater plays in temperature regulation in these basins partially explains the observed differences. Our results suggest that the metabolic theory of ecology can be applied to fisheries management at a finer spatial scale.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2021

Fire, land cover, and temperature drivers of bat activity in winter

Background Understanding the effects of disturbance events, land cover, and weather on wildlife activity is fundamental to wildlife management. Currently, in North America, bats are of high conservation concern due to white-nose syndrome and wind-energy development impact, but the role of fire as a potential additional stressor has received less focus. Although limited, the vast majority of research on bats and fire in the southeastern United States has been conducted during the growing season, thereby creating data gaps for bats in the region relative to overwintering conditions, particularly for non-hibernating species. The longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystem is an archetypal fire-mediated ecosystem that has been the focus of landscape-level restoration in the Southeast. Although historically fires predominately occurred during the growing season in these systems, dormant-season fire is more widely utilized for easier application and control as a means of habitat management in the region. To assess the impacts of fire and environmental factors on bat activity on Camp Blanding Joint Training Center (CB) in northern Florida, USA, we deployed 34 acoustic detectors across CB and recorded data from 26 February to 3 April 2019, and from 10 December 2019 to 14 January 2020. Results We identified eight bat species native to the region as present at CB. Bat activity was related to the proximity of mesic habitats as well as the presence of pine or deciduous forest types, depending on species morphology ( i.e., body size, wing-loading, and echolocation call frequency). Activity for all bat species was influenced positively by either time since fire or mean fire return interval. Conclusion Overall, our results suggested that fire use provides a diverse landscape pattern at CB that maintains mesic, deciduous habitat within the larger pine forest matrix, thereby supporting the diverse bat community at CB during the dormant season and early spring.

Florida↗

USGS2008

Spatial dynamics of overbank sedimentation in floodplain systems

Floodplains provide valuable social and ecological functions, and understanding the rates and patterns of overbank sedimentation is critical for river basin management and rehabilitation. Channelization of alluvial systems throughout the world has altered hydrological and sedimentation processes within floodplain ecosystems. In the loess belt region of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley of the United States, channelization, the geology of the region, and past land-use practices have resulted in the formation of dozens of valley plugs in stream channels and the formation of shoals at the confluence of stream systems. Valley plugs completely block stream channels with sediment and debris and can result in greater deposition rates on floodplain surfaces. Presently, however, information is lacking on the rates and variability of overbank sedimentation associated with valley plugs and shoals. We quantified deposition rates and textures in floodplains along channelized streams that contained valley plugs and shoals, in addition to floodplains occurring along an unchannelized stream, to improve our understanding of overbank sedimentation associated with channelized streams. Feldspar clay marker horizons and marker poles were used to measure floodplain deposition from 2002 to 2005 and data were analyzed with geospatial statistics to determine the spatial dynamics of sedimentation within the floodplains. Mean sediment deposition rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.67??cm/y at unchannelized sites, 0.16 to 2.27??cm/y at shoal sites, and 3.44 to 6.20??cm/y at valley plug sites. Valley plug sites had greater rates of deposition, and the deposited sediments contained more coarse sand material than either shoal or unchannelized sites. A total of 59 of 183 valley plug study plots had mean deposition rates > 5??cm/y. The geospatial analyses showed that the spatial dynamics of sedimentation can be influenced by the formation of valley plugs and shoals on channelized streams; however, responses can vary. Restoration efforts in the region need to have basinwide collaboration with landowners and address catchment-scale processes, including the geomorphic instability of the region, to be successful. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2007

Development of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Determining Environmental Flows for New Jersey Streams

The natural flow regime paradigm and parallel stream ecological concepts and theories have established the benefits of maintaining or restoring the full range of natural hydrologic variation for physiochemical processes, biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian communities. A synthesis of recent advances in hydroecological research coupled with stream classification has resulted in a new process to determine environmental flows and assess hydrologic alteration. This process has national and international applicability. It allows classification of streams into hydrologic stream classes and identification of a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 10 critical sub-components of flow. Three computer programs have been developed for implementing the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP): (1) the Hydrologic Indices Tool (HIT), which calculates 171 ecologically relevant hydrologic indices on the basis of daily-flow and peak-flow stream-gage data; (2) the New Jersey Hydrologic Assessment Tool (NJHAT), which can be used to establish a hydrologic baseline period, provide options for setting baseline environmental-flow standards, and compare past and proposed streamflow alterations; and (3) the New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT), designed for placing unclassified streams into pre-defined stream classes. Biological and multivariate response models including principal-component, cluster, and discriminant-function analyses aided in the development of software and implementation of the HIP for New Jersey. A pilot effort is currently underway by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in which the HIP is being used to evaluate the effects of past and proposed surface-water use, ground-water extraction, and land-use changes on stream ecosystems while determining the most effective way to integrate the process into ongoing regulatory programs. Ultimately, this scientifically defensible process will help to quantify the effects of anthropogenic changes and development on hydrologic variability and help planners and resource managers balance current and future water requirements with ecological needs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Ecological disturbance through patch-burn grazing influences lesser prairie-chicken space use

Across portions of the western Great Plains in North America, natural fire has been removed from grassland ecosystems, decreasing vegetation heterogeneity and allowing woody encroachment. The loss of fire has implications for grassland species requiring diverse vegetation patches and structure or patches that have limited occurrence in the absence of fire. The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is a declining species of prairie-grouse that requires heterogeneous grasslands throughout its life history and fire has been removed from much of its occupied range. Patch-burn grazing is a management strategy that re-establishes the fire-grazing interaction to a grassland system, increasing heterogeneity in vegetation structure and composition. We evaluated the effects of patch-burn grazing on lesser prairie-chicken space use, habitat features, and vegetation selection during a 4-year field study from 2014–2017. Female lesser prairie-chickens selected 1- and 2-year post-fire patches during the lekking season, ≥4-year post-fire patches during the nesting season, and year-of-fire and 1-year post-fire patches during post-nesting and nonbreeding seasons. Vegetation selection during the lekking season was not similar to available vegetation in selected patches, suggesting that lesser prairie-chickens cue in on other factors during the lekking season. During the nesting season, females selected nest sites with greater visual obstruction, which was available in ≥4-year post-fire patches; during the post-nesting season, females selected sites with 15–25% bare ground, which was available in the year-of-fire, 1-year post-fire, and 2-year post-fire patches; and during the nonbreeding season they selected sites with lower visual obstruction, available in the year-of-fire and 1-year post-fire patches. Because lesser prairie-chickens selected all available time-since-fire patches during their life history, patch-burn grazing may be a viable management tool to restore and maintain lesser prairie-chicken habitat on the landscape. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Kansas↗

USGS2022

Identifying factors linked with persistence of reintroduced populations: Lessons learned from 25 years of amphibian translocations

Conservation translocations are increasingly used to help recover imperiled species. However, success of establishing populations remains low, especially for amphibians. Identifying factors associated with translocation success can help increase efficiency and efficacy of recovery efforts. Since the 1990s, several captive and semi-captive facilities have produced Chiricahua Leopard Frogs ( Rana chiricahuensis ) to establish or augment wild populations in Arizona and New Mexico, USA. During this same time, personnel associated with several programs surveyed translocation and non-translocation sites for presence of amphibians. We used 25 years (1995–2019) of survey and translocation data for the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog to identify factors linked with population persistence. Our dataset included approximately 40,642 egg masses or animals translocated in 314 events to 115 distinct sites and > 5800 visual encounter surveys from 641 sites; 120 of these sites were also surveyed with environmental DNA methods in 2018. We used a hierarchical dynamic occupancy model that accounted for imperfect detection to identify patch- and landscape-level attributes associated with site occupancy, and then used predictions from that model to evaluate factors associated with population persistence at translocation sites. Across all sites, extinction probability for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs was higher in lotic (stream) than lentic (pond) habitats and when Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ) were present. Restoration of sites specifically for frog conservation reduced extinction probability. Colonization of unoccupied sites increased moderately with increasing numbers of translocation sites within 2 km, indicating a benefit of translocation efforts beyond sites where frogs were stocked. At translocation sites, persistence was greater in lentic than lotic habitats and was negatively correlated with the proportion of years tiger salamanders were present. Increasing numbers of translocation events, especially of late-stage larvae, increased persistence. There was little difference in population persistence based on whether stock was from captive, semi-captive, or wild sources, but translocations during the dry season (January— July) succeeded more than those after the typical arrival of summer rains (August— December). Based on the number of years translocation sites were predicted to be occupied, 2 or more translocations produced, on average, a > 4-yr increase in predicted occupancy compared to sites without translocations. While translocations have increased the number of populations across the landscape, continued management of water availability and threats such as invasive predators and disease remain critical to recovery of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Estimating abiotic thresholds for sagebrush condition class in the western United States

Sagebrush ecosystems of the western United States can transition from extended periods of relatively stable conditions to rapid ecological change if acute disturbances occur. Areas dominated by native sagebrush can transition from species-rich native systems to altered states where non-native annual grasses dominate, if resistance to annual grasses is low. The non-native annual grasses provide relatively little value to wildlife, livestock, and humans and function as fuel that increases fire frequency. The more land area covered by annual grasses, the higher the potential for fire, thus reducing the potential for native vegetation to reestablish, even when applying restoration treatments. Mapping areas of stability and areas of change using machine-learning algorithms allows both the identification of dominant abiotic variables that drive ecosystem dynamics and the variables’ important thresholds. We develop a decision-tree model with rulesets that estimate three classes of sagebrush condition (i.e., sagebrush recovery, tipping point [ecosystem degradation], and stable). We find rulesets that primarily drive development of the sagebrush recovery class indicate areas of midelevations (1 602 m), warm 30-yr July temperature maximums (tmax) (30.62°C), and 30-yr March precipitation (ppt) averages equal to 26.26 mm, about 10% of the 30-yr annual ppt values. Tipping point and stable classes occur at elevations that are lower (1 505 m) and higher (1 939 m), respectively, more mesic during March and annually, and experience lower 30-yr July tmax averages. These defined variable averages can be used to understand current dynamics of sagebrush condition and to predict where future transitions may occur under novel conditions.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Neb↗

USGS2017

Using object-based image analysis to conduct high-resolution conifer extraction at regional spatial scales

The distribution and abundance of pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma, J. occidentalis ) trees (hereinafter, "pinyon-juniper") in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of the Great Basin in the Western United States has increased substantially since the late 1800s. Distributional expansion and infill of pinyon-juniper into sagebrush ecosystems threatens the ecological function and economic viability of these ecosystems within the Great Basin, and is now a major contemporary challenge facing land and wildlife managers. Particularly, pinyon-juniper encroachment into intact sagebrush ecosystems has been identified as a primary threat facing populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, "sage-grouse"), which is a sagebrush obligate species. Even seemingly innocuous scatterings of isolated pinyon-juniper in an otherwise intact sagebrush landscape can negatively affect survival and reproduction of sage-grouse. Therefore, accurate and high-resolution maps of pinyon-juniper distribution and abundance (indexed by canopy cover) across broad geographic extents would help guide land management decisions that better target areas for pinyon-juniper removal projects (for example, fuel reduction, habitat improvement for sage-grouse, and other sagebrush species) and facilitate science that further quantifies ecological effects of pinyon-juniper encroachment on sage-grouse populations and sagebrush ecosystem processes . Hence, we mapped pinyon-juniper (referred to as conifers for actual mapping) at a 1 × 1-meter (m) high resolution across the entire range of previously mapped sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California. We used digital orthophoto quad tiles from National Agriculture Imagery Program (2010, 2013) as base imagery, and then classified conifers using automated feature extraction methodology with the program Feature Analyst ™ . This method relies on machine learning algorithms that extract features from imagery based on their spectral and spatial signatures. We classified conifers in 6,230 tiles and then tested for errors of omission and commission using confusion matrices. Accuracy ranged from 79.1 to 96.8, with an overall accuracy of 84.3 percent across all mapped areas. An estimated accuracy coefficient (kappa) indicated substantial to nearly perfect agreement, which varied across mapped areas. For this mapping process across the entire mapping extent, four sets of products are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7348HVC , including (1) a shapefile representing accuracy results linked to mapping subunits; (2) binary rasters representing conifer presence or absence at a 1 × 1 m resolution; (3) a 30 × 30 m resolution raster representing percentages of conifer canopy cover within each cell from 0 to 100; and (4) 1 × 1 m resolution canopy cover classification rasters derived from a 50-m-radius moving window analysis. The latter two products can be reclassified in a geographic information system (GIS) into user-specified bins to meet different objectives, which include approximations for phases of encroachment. These products complement, and in some cases improve upon, existing conifer maps in the Western United States, and will help facilitate sage-grouse habitat management and sagebrush ecosystem restoration.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2015

Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

Plant Ecology↗