USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Arctic”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Biodegradability of dissolved organic carbon in the Yukon River and its tributaries: Seasonality and importance of inorganic nitrogen

Northern high-latitude rivers transport large amounts of terrestrially derived dissolved organic matter (DOM) from boreal and arctic ecosystems to coastal areas and oceans. Current knowledge of the biodegradability of DOM in these rivers is limited, particularly for large rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean. We conducted a seasonally comprehensive study of biodegradable dissolved organic carbon (BDOC) dynamics in the Yukon River and two of its tributaries in Alaska, USA. Distinct seasonal patterns of BDOC, consistent across a wide range of watershed size, indicate BDOC is transported year-round. Relative biodegradability (%BDOC) was greatest during winter, and decreased into spring and summer. Due to large seasonal differences in DOC concentration, the greatest concentrations of BDOC (mg C L −1 ) occurred during spring freshet, followed by winter and summer. While chemical composition of DOM was an important driver of BDOC, the overriding control of BDOC was mineral nutrient availability due to wide shifts in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stoichiometry across seasons. We calculated seasonal and annual loads of BDOC exported by the Yukon River by applying measured BDOC concentrations to daily water discharge values, and also by applying an empirical correlation between %BDOC and the ratio of DOC to dissolved inorganic N (DIN) to total DOC loads. The Yukon River exports ∼0.2 Tg C yr −1 as BDOC that is decomposable within 28 days. This corresponds to 12–18% of the total annual DOC export. Furthermore, we calculate that the six largest arctic rivers, including the Yukon River, collectively export ∼2.3 Tg C yr −1 as BDOC to the Arctic Ocean.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2019

Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release

This much is clear: the Arctic is warming fast, and frozen soils are starting to thaw, often for the first time in thousands of years. But how this happens is as murky as the mud that oozes from permafrost when ice melts. As the temperature of the ground rises above freezing, microorganisms break down organic matter in the soil. Greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide — are released into the atmosphere, accelerating global warming. Soils in the permafrost region hold twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does — almost 1,600 billion tonnes 1 . What fraction of that will decompose? Will it be released suddenly, or seep out slowly? We need to find out. Current models of greenhouse-gas release and climate assume that permafrost thaws gradually from the surface downwards. Deeper layers of organic matter are exposed over decades or even centuries, and some models are beginning to track these slow changes. But models are ignoring an even more troubling problem. Frozen soil doesn’t just lock up carbon — it physically holds the landscape together. Across the Arctic and Boreal regions, permafrost is collapsing suddenly as pockets of ice within it melt. Instead of a few centimetres of soil thawing each year, several metres of soil can become destabilized within days or weeks. The land can sink and be inundated by swelling lakes and wetlands. Abrupt thawing of permafrost is dramatic to watch. Returning to field sites in Alaska, for example, we often find that lands that were forested a year ago are now covered with lakes 2 . Rivers that once ran clear are thick with sediment. Hillsides can liquefy, sometimes taking sensitive scientific equipment with them. This type of thawing is a serious problem for communities living around the Arctic (see ‘Arctic permafrost’). Roads buckle, houses become unstable. Access to traditional foods is changing, because it is becoming dangerous to travel across the land to hunt. Families cannot reach lines of game traps that have supported them for generations.

Nature↗
USGS2025

Warming Alaskan rivers affect first-year growth in critical northern food fishes

Arctic and subarctic rivers are warming rapidly, with unknown consequences for migratory fishes and the human communities dependent on them. To date, few studies have provided a comprehensive assessment of possible climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Arctic rivers at the regional scale, and even fewer have connected those changes to multiple fish species with input and guidance from Indigenous communities. We used climate, hydrologic, and fish-growth simulations of historical (1990–2021) and future (2034–2065) young-of-year (YOY) growth potential of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) for seven river basins in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) region of Alaska, USA and Yukon Territory, Canada. Historically, summer water temperatures of all river basins remained below thresholds regarded as deleterious for Chinook salmon (14.6 °C) and Dolly Varden (16 °C), even in the warmest years. However, by the mid-century, Chinook salmon growth was limited, with declines in the warmest years in most river basins. Conversely, Dolly Varden are expected to benefit, with a near-doubling in growth projections in all river basins. This suggests that there may be an increase in suitable habitat for Dolly Varden by mid-century. The results highlight species-specific consequences of climate change and can guide future research on refugia for these species of cultural and subsistence importance to Indigenous communities in the AYK region and throughout the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

The dominance and growth of shallow groundwater resources in continuous permafrost environments

Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2023

Variability in terrestrial characteristics and erosion rates on the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

Arctic coastal environments are eroding and rapidly changing. A lack of pan-Arctic observations limits our ability to understand controls on coastal erosion rates across the entire Arctic region. Here, we capitalize on an abundance of geospatial and remotely sensed data, in addition to model output, from the North Slope of Alaska to identify relationships between historical erosion rates and landscape characteristics to guide future modeling and observational efforts across the Arctic. Using existing datasets from the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast and a hierarchical clustering algorithm, we developed a set of 16 coastal typologies that captures the defining characteristics of environments susceptible to coastal erosion. Relationships between landscape characteristics and historical erosion rates show that no single variable alone is a good predictor of erosion rates. Variability in erosion rate decreases with increasing coastal elevation, but erosion rate magnitudes are highest for intermediate elevations. Areas along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast (ABSC) protected by barrier islands showed a three times lower erosion rate on average, suggesting that barrier islands are critical to maintaining mainland shore position. Finally, typologies with the highest erosion rates are not broadly representative of the ABSC and are generally associated with low elevation, north- to northeast-facing shorelines, a peaty pebbly silty lithology, and glaciomarine deposits with high ice content. All else being equal, warmer permafrost is also associated with higher erosion rates, suggesting that warming permafrost temperatures may contribute to higher future erosion rates on permafrost coasts. The suite of typologies can be used to guide future modeling and observational efforts by quantifying the distribution of coastlines with specific landscape characteristics and erosion rates.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Importance of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for aquatic birds

We used data from aerial surveys (1992–2010) of >100,000 km 2 and ground surveys (1998–2004) of >150 km 2 to estimate the density and abundance of birds on the North Slope of Alaska (U.S.A.). In the ground surveys, we used double sampling to estimate detection ratios. We used the aerial survey data to compare densities of birds and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), the major nest predator of birds, on the North Slope, in Prudhoe Bay, and in nearby areas. We partitioned the Prudhoe Bay oil field into 2 × 2 km plots and determined the relation between density of aquatic birds and density of roads, buildings, and other infrastructure in these plots. Abundance and density (birds per square kilometer) of 3 groups of aquatic birds—waterfowl, loons, and grebes; shorebirds; and gulls, terns, and jaegers—were highest in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPRA) and lowest in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Six other major wetlands occur in the Arctic regions of Canada and Russia, but the largest population of aquatic birds was in the NPRA. Aquatic birds were concentrated in the northern part of the NPRA. For example, an area that covered 18% of the NPRA included 53% of its aquatic birds. The aerial surveys showed that bird density was not lower and fox density was not higher in Prudhoe Bay than in surrounding areas. Density of infrastructure did not significantly affect bird density for any group of species. Our results establish that the NPRA is one of the most important areas for aquatic birds in the Arctic. Our results and those of others also indicate that oil production, as practiced in Prudhoe Bay, does not necessarily lead to substantial declines in bird density or productivity in or near the developed areas.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate change is influencing polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Variation in spring migration routes and breeding distribution of northern pintails Anas acuta that winter in Japan

In North America, spring migration routes and breeding distribution of northern pintails Anas acuta vary because some individuals opportunistically nest at mid-latitudes in years when ephemeral prairie wetlands are available, whereas others regularly nest in arctic and sub-arctic regions where wetland abundance is more constant. Less was known about migration routes and breeding distribution of pintails in East Asia. From 2007–2009 we marked 198 pintails on their wintering areas in Japan with satellite transmitters to: 1) document spring migration routes and summer distribution, 2) evaluate migratory connections and breeding season sympatry with North American pintails, and 3) determine if pintails used the same migration routes in fall as in spring. Most pintails (67%) migrated to the Kamchatka or Chukotka peninsulas in eastern Russia either directly from Japan or via Sakhalin Island, Russia. Remaining pintails primarily migrated to the Magadan region or Kolyma River Basin in eastern Russia via Sakhalin Island. The Chukotka Peninsula was the most common summer destination, with highest densities in the Anadyr Lowlands; a region also used by pintails that migrate from North America. One pintail migrated to St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, in spring and another briefly migrated to the western coast of Alaska in fall. Autumn migration routes generally mirrored spring migration although most pintails bypassed Sakhalin Island in fall. Compared to North American pintails, pintails that winter in Japan exhibited less variation in migration routes and breeding distribution, and nested at higher latitudes. In the Russian Far East there is no region with habitats comparable in extent to the ephemeral mid-latitude wetlands of North America. Consequently, East Asian pintails mainly nest in arctic and sub-arctic regions where annual consistency in wetlands promotes constancy in migration routes and breeding distribution. Breeding season sympatry between pintails from different continents results more from North American pintails migrating to eastern Russia than from Japanese pintails migrating to North America.

Journal of Avian Biology↗
USGS2016

Detection, prevalence, and transmission of avian hematozoa in waterfowl at the Arctic/sub-Arctic interface: co-infections, viral interactions, and sources of variation.

Background: The epidemiology of avian hematozoa at high latitudes is still not well understood, particularly in sub-Arctic and Arctic habitats, where information is limited regarding seasonality and range of transmission, co-infection dynamics with parasitic and viral agents, and possible fitness consequences of infection. Such information is important as climate warming may lead to northward expansion of hematozoa with unknown consequences to northern-breeding avian taxa, particularly populations that may be previously unexposed to blood parasites. Methods: We used molecular methods to screen blood samples and cloacal/oropharyngeal swabs collected from 1347 ducks of five species during May-August 2010, in interior Alaska, for the presence of hematozoa, Influenza A Virus (IAV), and IAV antibodies. Using models to account for imperfect detection of parasites, we estimated seasonal variation in prevalence of three parasite genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium, Leucocytozoon) and investigated how co-infection with parasites and viruses were related to the probability of infection. Results: We detected parasites from each hematozoan genus in adult and juvenile ducks of all species sampled. Seasonal patterns in detection and prevalence varied by parasite genus and species, age, and sex of duck hosts. The probabilities of infection for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites were strongly positively correlated, but hematozoa infection was not correlated with IAV infection or serostatus. The probability of Haemoproteus infection was negatively related to body condition in juvenile ducks; relationships between Leucocytozoon infection and body condition varied among host species. Conclusions: We present prevalence estimates for Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium infections in waterfowl at the interface of the sub-Arctic and Arctic and provide evidence for local transmission of all three parasite genera. Variation in prevalence and molecular detection of hematozoa parasites in wild ducks is influenced by seasonal timing and a number of host traits. A positive correlation in co-infection of Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus suggests that infection probability by parasites in one or both genera is enhanced by infection with the other, or that encounter rates of hosts and genus-specific vectors are correlated. Using size-adjusted mass as an index of host condition, we did not find evidence for strong deleterious consequences of hematozoa infection in wild ducks.

Parasites & Vectors↗
USGS2011

Movements of wolves at the northern extreme of the species' range, including during four months of darkness

Information about wolf ( Canis lupus ) movements anywhere near the northern extreme of the species' range in the High Arctic (>75&deg;N latitude) are lacking. There, wolves prey primarily on muskoxen ( Ovibos moschatus ) and must survive 4 months of 24 hr/day winter darkness and temperatures reaching -53 C. The extent to which wolves remain active and prey on muskoxen during the dark period are unknown, for the closest area where information is available about winter wolf movements is >2,250 km south. We studied a pack of &ge;20 wolves on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (80&deg;N latitude) from July 2009 through mid-April 2010 by collaring a lead wolf with a Global Positioning System (GPS)/Argos radio collar. The collar recorded the wolf's precise locations at 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. daily and transmitted the locations by satellite to our email. Straight-line distances between consecutive 12-hr locations varied between 0 and 76 km. Mean (SE) linear distance between consecutive locations (n = 554) was 11 (0.5) km. Total minimum distance traveled was 5,979 km, and total area covered was 6,640 km 2 , the largest wolf range reported. The wolf and presumably his pack once made a 263-km (straight-line distance) foray to the southeast during 19&ndash;28 January 2010, returning 29 January to 1 February at an average of 41 km/day straight-line distances between 12-hr locations. This study produced the first detailed movement information about any large mammal in the High Arctic, and the average movements during the dark period did not differ from those afterwards. Wolf movements during the dark period in the highest latitudes match those of the other seasons and generally those of wolves in lower latitudes, and, at least with the gross movements measurable by our methods, the 4-month period without direct sunlight produced little change in movements.

Ellesmere Island;Nunavut↗
USGS2014

Size and retention of breeding territories of yellow-billed loons in Alaska and Canada

Yellow-billed Loons ( Gavia adamsii ) breed in lakes in the treeless Arctic and are globally rare. Like their sister taxa, the well-documented Common Loon ( G. immer ) of the boreal forest, Yellow-billed Loons exhibit strong territorial behavior during the breeding season. Little is known about what size territories are required, however, or how readily territories are retained from year to year. An understanding of territory dynamics and size is needed by management agencies as most of the U.S. breeding population of Yellow-billed Loons resides in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska where oil and gas development is expected to increase in the next few decades. Using locational data from a set of Yellow-billed Loons marked with satellite transmitters, we quantified an index of territory radius for each of three breeding populations: two in Alaska and one in Canada. The mean territory radius was 0.42 km for Yellow-billed Loons summering on lakes within the Seward Peninsula in northwest Alaska, 0.69 km for Yellow-billed Loons within the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (encompasses the National Petroleum Reserve), and 0.96 km for Yellow-billed Loons within Daring Lake in mainland Canada. In this study, the mean territory radius on the Arctic Coastal Plain was about half the distance identified in stipulations for industrial development in the National Petroleum Reserve. The range in territory size among areas corresponded to a gradient in size of lakes used by Yellow-billed Loons with territories at the two Alaska sites on lakes averaging < 200 ha while territories in Canada were generally on much larger lakes. In the year after capture, 71% of Yellow-billed Loons retained territories that were held the previous year. Most Yellow-billed Loons that lost their territories wandered over a large area within 6 km of their prior territory. No Yellow-billed Loons occupied new territories, though one reacquired its prior territory after a 1-year hiatus. Retention of a territory in a subsequent year was positively related to early arrival dates at the breeding site. For Yellow-billed Loons on the Arctic Coastal Plain, this relationship was quite strong with a week lag in arrival decreasing the probability of retaining a territory by 80%. These collective observations, in combination with theoretical studies of population regulation by floaters (non-territorial birds), suggest that lake habitat suitable for breeding Yellow-billed Loons may currently limit population size in this species.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular↗
USGS2012

2008 Joint United States-Canadian program to explore the limits of the Extended Continental Shelf aboard the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Healy --Cruise HLY0806

In September 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), conducted bathymetric and geophysical surveys in the Arctic Beaufort Sea aboard the U.S. Coast Guard cutter USCGC Healy . The principal objective of this mission to the high Arctic was to acquire data in support of delineation of the outer limits of the U.S. and Canadian Extended Continental Shelf (ECS) in the Arctic Ocean in accordance with the provisions of Article 76 of the Law of the Sea Convention. The Healy was accompanied by the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St- Laurent . The science parties on the two vessels consisted principally of staff from the USGS ( Healy ), and the GSC and the Canadian Hydrographic Service ( Louis ). The crew included marine mammal and Native-community observers, ice observers, and biologists conducting research of opportunity in the Arctic Ocean. The joint survey proved an unqualified success. The Healy collected 5,528 km of swath (multibeam) bathymetry (38,806 km 2 ) and CHIRP subbottom profile data, with accompanying marine gravity measurements. The Louis acquired 2,817 km of multichannel seismic (airgun) deep-penetration reflection-profile data along 12 continuous lines, as well as 35 sonobuoy refraction stations and accompanying single-beam bathymetry. The coordinated efforts of the two vessels resulted in seismic-reflection profile data of much higher quality and continuity than if the data had been acquired with a single vessel alone. Equipment failure rate of the seismic equipment gear aboard the Louis was greatly improved with the advantage of having a leading icebreaker. When ice conditions proved too severe to deploy the seismic system, the Louis led the Healy , resulting in much improved quality of the swath bathymetry and CHIRP sub-bottom data in comparison with data collected by the Healy in the lead or working alone. Ancillary science objectives, including ice observations, deployment of ice-monitoring buoys and water-column sampling for biologic (phytoplankton) studies, were also successfully accomplished.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Thermokarst and thaw-related landscape dynamics -- an annotated bibliography with an emphasis on potential effects on habitat and wildlife

Permafrost has warmed throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere since the 1980s, with colder permafrost sites warming more rapidly (Romanovsky and others, 2010; Smith and others, 2010). Warming of the near-surface permafrost may lead to widespread terrain instability in ice-rich permafrost in the Arctic and the Subarctic, and may result in thermokarst development and other thaw-related landscape features (Jorgenson and others, 2006; Gooseff and others, 2009). Thermokarst and other thaw-related landscape features result from varying modes and scales of permafrost thaw, subsidence, and removal of material. An increase in active-layer depth, water accumulation on the soil surface, permafrost degradation and associated retreat of the permafrost table, and changes to lake shores and coastal bluffs act and interact to create thermokarst and other thaw-related landscape features (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). There is increasing interest in the spatial and temporal dynamics of thermokarst and other thaw-related features from diverse disciplines including landscape ecology, hydrology, engineering, and biogeochemistry. Therefore, there is a need to synthesize and disseminate knowledge on the current state of near-surface permafrost terrain. The term "thermokarst" originated in the Russian literature, and its scientific use has varied substantially over time (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). The modern definition of thermokarst refers to the process by which characteristic landforms result from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ice (van Everdingen, 1998), or, more specifically, the thawing of ice-rich permafrost and (or) melting of massive ice that result in consolidation and deformation of the soil surface and formation of specific forms of relief (Shur, 1988). Jorgenson (2013) identifies 23 distinct thermokarst and other thaw-related features in the Arctic, Subarctic, and Antarctic based primarily on differences in terrain condition, ground-ice volume, and heat and mass transfer processes. Typical Arctic thermokarst landforms include thermokarst lakes, collapsed pingos, sinkholes, and pits. Thermokarst is differentiated from thermal erosion, which refers to the erosion of the land surface by thermal and mechanical processes (Mackay, 1970; van Everdingen, 1998). Typical thermal erosional features include thermo-erosional gullies. Thermal abrasion is further differentiated from thermokarst and thermal erosion by association with the reworking of ocean, river, and lake bluffs (Are, 1988). Typical thermo-abrasion features include erosional niches at the base of bluffs. Thermal denudation is another distinct term that refers to the effect of incoming solar energy on the thaw of frozen slopes and permafrost bodies that subsequently become transported downhill by gravity (Shur and Osterkamp, 2007). Active layer detachment slides and thaw slumps are typical thermal denudation features. Shur and Osterkamp (2007) noted that these various transport processes may occur together with thermokarst or in instances that would not be considered thermokarst. This compilation of references regarding thermokarst and other thaw-related features is focused on the Arctic and the Subarctic. References were drawn from North America as well as Siberia. English-language literature mostly was targeted, with 167 references annotated in version 1.0; however, an additional 28 Russian-language references were taken from Shur and Osterkamp (2007) and are provided at the end of this document. This compilation may be missing key references and inevitably will become outdated soon after publication. We hope that this document, version 1.0, will serve as the foundation for a comprehensive compilation of thermokarst and permafrost-terrain stability references, and that it will be updated continually over the coming years.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion&rsquo;s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions substantively lowered the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome, while an elevated marine prey base was slightly less influential in lowering the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome. Stressors associated with in situ human activities exerted considerably less influence on population outcomes. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted inmodest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and point-source pollution had negligible effects on polar bear outcomes, but that could be attributed to uncertainties in the ecological relevance of those specific stressors. Our findings suggest adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat become more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthens beyond 4 months, which could occur in portions of the Arctic by the middle of this century under the unabated pathway. The long-term persistence of polar bears may be achieved through ameliorating the loss of sea ice habitat, which will likely require stabilizing CO 2 emissions at or below the ceiling represented by RCP 4.5. Management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of polar bear populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects of persistence, pending GHG mitigation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Time-slice maps showing age, distribution, and style of deformation in Alaska north of 60° N.

The structural architecture of Alaska is the product of a complex history of tectonism that occurred along the Cordilleran and Arctic margins of North America through interactions with ancient and modern ocean plates and with continental elements derived from Laurentia, Siberia, and Baltica. To unravel the tectonic history of Alaska, we constructed maps showing the age, distribution, structural style, and kinematics of contractional and penetrative extensional deformation in Alaska north of latitude 60° N. at a scale of 1:5,000,000. These maps use the Geologic Map of the Arctic (Harrison and others, 2011) as a base map and follow the guidelines in the Tectonic Map of the Arctic project (Petrov and others, 2013) for construction, including use of the International Commission on Stratigraphy time scale (Cohen and others, 2013) divided into 20 time intervals. We find evidence for deformation in 14 of the 20 time intervals and present maps showing the known or probable extent of deformation for each time interval. Maps and descriptions of deformational style, age constraints, kinematics, and information sources for each deformational episode are discussed in the text and are reported in tabular form. This report also contains maps showing the lithologies and structural geology of Alaska, a terrane map, and the distribution of tectonically important units including post-tectonic sedimentary basins, accretionary complexes, ophiolites, metamorphic rocks. These new maps show that most deformational belts in Alaska are relatively young features, having developed during the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. The oldest episode of deformation recognized anywhere in Alaska is found in the basement of the Farewell terrane (~1.75 Ga). Paleozoic and early Mesozoic deformational events, including Devonian deformation in the Arctic Alaska terrane, Pennsylvanian deformation in the Alexander terrane, Permian deformation in the Yukon Composite (Klondike orogeny) and Farewell terranes (Browns Fork orogeny), Early and Late Jurassic deformation in the Peninsular-Wrangellia terranes, and Early Cretaceous deformation in northern Alaska (early Brookian orogeny) show that within-terrane amalgamation events occurred prior to assembly of Alaska. Widespread episodes of deformation in the Late Cretaceous and early Cenozoic, in contrast, affected multiple terranes, indicating they occurred during or following the time of assembly of most of Alaska. The primary deformational event in northern Alaska was the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous (early) Brookian orogeny, which affected most terranes north and west of the early Cenozoic Tintina, Victoria Creek, Kaltag, and Poorman dextral-slip faults in central Alaska. In southern Alaska, formation of the southern Alaska accretionary complex (Chugach, Prince William, Yakutat terranes) and associated magmatism in the Peninsular-Wrangellia terrane began near the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and continued episodically throughout the remainder of the Mesozoic and the Cenozoic. The collision of these terranes with the Farewell and Yukon Composite terranes in central Alaska is recorded by contractional deformation that emanated from the intervening basins in the Late Cretaceous. The boundary between northern and central Alaska is constrained to late Early Cretaceous but is enigmatic and not obviously marked by contractional deformation. Early Cenozoic shortening and transpressional deformation is the most widespread event recorded in Alaska and produced the widespread late Brookian orogenic event in northern Alaska. Middle and late Cenozoic shortening and transpression is significant in southern Alaska inboard of the underthrusting Yakutat terrane at the Pacific margin subduction zone as well as in northeastern Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

National assessment of shoreline change — Historical shoreline change along the north coast of Alaska, Icy Cape to Cape Prince of Wales

Beach erosion is a persistent problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. Along the Arctic coast of Alaska, coastal erosion is widespread and threatens communities, defense and energy-related infrastructure, and coastal habitat. As coastal populations continue to expand and infrastructure and habitat are increasingly threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. Shoreline change was evaluated by comparing three to four historical shoreline positions derived from 1950s-era topographic surveys and black and white aerial photography, 1980s-era color-infrared Alaska High-Altitude Aerial Photography, 2003 natural color aerial photography, and 2010s-era natural color aerial photography. Long-term (1950s–2010s) and short-term (1980s–2010s) shoreline change rates were calculated using linear-regression and end-point methods, respectively, at transects spaced approximately every 50 meters along both the mainland and barrier island coasts. Shoreline change rates calculated on more than 24,000 individual transects indicate that between 1948 and 2016 the northern coast of Alaska between Icy Cape and Cape Prince of Wales was slightly erosional, with 68 percent of the total transects showing shoreline retreat over the long term and 63 percent over the short term. However, only 9 percent of the total transects showed shoreline retreat greater than 1 meter per year (m/yr) over the long and short term, respectively. Mean rates of shoreline change of −0.2±0.1 and −0.2±0.3 m/yr, were calculated for the long and short term, respectively. Many rates measured were near the limit of our shoreline change uncertainty estimates. Erosion and accretion rates on individual transects ranged from −8.3 to +9.6 m/yr over the long term and −16.0 to +20.0 m/yr over the short-term analysis periods. The highest rates of erosion and accretion were associated with the formation and migration of inlets along barrier island coasts. The highest erosional rates of change were measured in the southern part of the study area between Sullivan Lake and Cape Prince of Wales. The highest accretional rates of change were measured in the northern part of the study area on the open-ocean coast of barrier islands fronting Kasegaluk Lagoon. Open-ocean exposed shorelines compose 85 percent of all transects and 70 percent were erosional over the long term. Sheltered mainland-lagoon shorelines compose 15 percent of all transects in the study area and 58 percent were erosional over the long term. Although mean shoreline change rates were quite low along all coasts, exposed shorelines retreated at twice the rate (−0.2±0.1 m/yr) of sheltered shorelines (−0.1±0.1 m/yr). Barrier shoreline transects (includes barrier islands, spits, and beaches) compose 49 percent of the total transects and 56 percent of all exposed shoreline transects. Mean shoreline change rates on exposed barrier shorelines were only slightly greater than exposed mainland shorelines (−0.3±0.1 and −0.2±0.1 m/yr, respectively). Mean shoreline change rates on sheltered barrier shorelines were similar to sheltered mainland shorelines (−0.1±0.3 m/yr). In contrast to the majority of the Nation’s shorelines, for all but three months of the year (July–September), the north coast of Alaska has historically been protected by landfast sea ice from processes such as waves, winds, and currents that typically drive coastal change on beaches in more temperate regions of the world. Projected and observed increases in periods of sea-ice-free conditions, as sea ice melts earlier and forms later in the year, particularly in the autumn, when large storms are more common in the Arctic, suggest that Arctic coasts will be more vulnerable to storm surge and wave energy, potentially resulting in accelerated shoreline erosion and terrestrial habitat loss in the future. Increases in air and sea water temperatures may also increase erosion of the ice-rich, coastal permafrost bluffs present along much of Alaska’s Arctic coast. More frequent shoreline change data collection and analysis in this rapidly changing environment should be considered in order to evaluate shoreline change trends in the future.

Alaska↗