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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

Coal resources, reserves and peak coal production in the United States

In spite of its large endowment of coal resources, recent studies have indicated that United States coal production is destined to reach a maximum and begin an irreversible decline sometime during the middle of the current century. However, studies and assessments illustrating coal reserve data essential for making accurate forecasts of United States coal production have not been compiled on a national basis. As a result, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the accuracy of the production forecasts. A very large percentage of the coal mined in the United States comes from a few large-scale mines (mega-mines) in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. Reported reserves at these mines do not account for future potential reserves or for future development of technology that may make coal classified currently as resources into reserves in the future. In order to maintain United States coal production at or near current levels for an extended period of time, existing mines will eventually have to increase their recoverable reserves and/or new large-scale mines will have to be opened elsewhere. Accordingly, in order to facilitate energy planning for the United States, this paper suggests that probabilistic assessments of the remaining coal reserves in the country would improve long range forecasts of coal production. As it is in United States coal assessment projects currently being conducted, a major priority of probabilistic assessments would be to identify the numbers and sizes of remaining large blocks of coal capable of supporting large-scale mining operations for extended periods of time and to conduct economic evaluations of those resources.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method

Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.

Climate Risk Management↗

A comparison of effects from prescribed fires and wildfires managed for resource objectives in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks

Current goals for prescription burning are focused on measures of fuel consumption and changes in forest density. These benchmarks, however, do not address the extent to which prescription burning meets perceived ecosystem needs of heterogeneity in burning, both for overstory trees and understory herbs and shrubs. There are still questions about how closely prescribed fires mimic these patterns compared to natural wildfires. This study compared burn patterns of prescribed fires and managed unplanned wildfires to understand how the differing burning regimes affect ecosystem properties. Measures of forest structure and fire severity were sampled in three recent prescribed fires and three wildfires managed for resource objectives in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks. Fine scale patterns of fire severity and heterogeneity were compared between fire types using ground-based measures of fire effects on fuels and overstory and understory vegetation. Prescribed fires and wildfires managed for resource objectives displayed similar patterns of overstory and understory fire severity, heterogeneity, and seedling and sapling survival. Variation among plots within the same fire was always greater than between fire types. Prescribed fires can provide burned landscapes that approximate natural fires in many ways. It is recognized that constraints placed on when wildfires managed for resource objectives are allowed to burn freely may bias the range of conditions that might have been experienced under more natural conditions. Therefore they may not exactly mimic natural wildfires. Overall, the similarity in fire effects that we observed between prescribed fires and managed wildfires indicate that despite the restrictions that are often placed on prescribed fires, they appear to be creating post-fire conditions that approximate natural fires when assessed on a fine spatial scale.

California↗

Role of landscape features in resource selection by female Greater Prairie-chickens within a constrained environment

Greater Prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus cupido ) historically occupied 20 states within the contiguous United States; however, due to habitat degradation and loss, they are currently found in 11 states, only four of which have a stable population. Kansas supports a relatively large abundance of Greater Prairie-chickens, where the Flint Hills ecoregion historically supported the largest population density of all ecoregions. In the past decade, the Flint Hills population has declined by 75 % to an estimated 8,334 individuals in 2021 from 34,180 individuals in 2015 due to landscape changes and intensification of grassland management practices. The Fort Riley Military Reservation in the northwest portion of the Flint Hills ecoregion is one of a few areas within the ecoregion that does not implement grazing or vast annual burning. The Greater Prairie-chicken population within Fort Riley has remained relatively stable over the past 25 years despite being constrained by surrounding landscape features and development. We analyzed multiple scales of resource selection by 46 female Greater Prairie-chickens during March-April 2019–2021 on Fort Riley to investigate why this population is doing relatively well compared to populations in surrounding areas. We tested landscape feature, vegetation, and burn mosaic variables to evaluate which variables had the greatest influence on resource selection. Landscape features had the greatest influence on resource selection. Females avoided trees within Fort Riley for both breeding season use and nest-site selection at a greater margin than any other study in Kansas. Additionally, fourth-order selection was not evident within this study system, contrary to studies within surrounding areas. Our findings join a growing body of literature that suggests containment of woody encroachment as a high priority for managers to maintain or expand prairie grouse habitat in many different environments. This containment is especially critical on Fort Riley because of its constrained environment, and further woody encroachment could lead to loss of habitat that is inescapable by the Greater Prairie-chicken population on Fort Riley. Spatially-explicit evaluations of habitat availability are increasingly important as more areas within the Greater Prairie-chicken range become constrained by urbanization, agricultural expansion, and intensive management practices.

Kansas↗

Coupling geophysical investigation with hydrothermal modeling to constrain the enthalpy classification of a potential geothermal resource.

An appreciable challenge in volcanology and geothermal resource development is to understand the relationships between volcanic systems and low-enthalpy geothermal resources. The enthalpy of an undeveloped geothermal resource in the Karckar region of Armenia is investigated by coupling geophysical and hydrothermal modeling. The results of 3-dimensional inversion of gravity data provide key inputs into a hydrothermal circulation model of the system and associated hot springs, which is used to evaluate possible geothermal system configurations. Hydraulic and thermal properties are specified using maximum a priori estimates. Limited constraints provided by temperature data collected from an existing down-gradient borehole indicate that the geothermal system can most likely be classified as low-enthalpy and liquid dominated. We find the heat source for the system is likely cooling quartz monzonite intrusions in the shallow subsurface and that meteoric recharge in the pull-apart basin circulates to depth, rises along basin-bounding faults and discharges at the hot springs. While other combinations of subsurface properties and geothermal system configurations may fit the temperature distribution equally well, we demonstrate that the low-enthalpy system is reasonably explained based largely on interpretation of surface geophysical data and relatively simple models.

Karckar Region↗

Defining oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana for restoration and aquaculture

Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) are a critical ecological and commercial resource in the northern Gulf of Mexico facing changing environmental conditions from river management and climate change. In Louisiana, USA, development of restored reefs, and off-bottom aquaculture would benefit from the identification of locations supportive of sustainable oyster populations ( i.e., metapopulations) and high consistent production. This study defines four oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana based on environmental conditions known to affect oyster survival, growth, and reproduction. Daily data from 2015 to 2019 were interpolated to generate salinity and temperature profiles across Louisiana's estuaries, which were then used to classify zones based on monthly and annual salinity mean and variance. Zones were classified as supportive of (1) broodstock sanctuary reefs (i.e., support reproductive populations), (2) productive reefs during dry (salty) years, (3) productive reefs during wet (fresh) years, and (4) off-bottom aquaculture development. Of the 38,000 km 2 investigated, over 11,000 km 2 of potential oyster zone area was identified across the Louisiana coast. The Broodstock Sanctuary Zone was the smallest (∼540 km 2 ), as salinity variance limited this zone in many areas, as it is driven largely by riverine inputs across many estuaries. Located up-estuary (Dry Restoration Zone) and down-estuary (Wet Restoration Zone) of the Broodstock Sanctuary Zone, Dry and Wet Restoration Zone areas covered ∼2400 km 2 and ∼3900 km 2 , respectively. Mapped reefs in Louisiana currently exist largely within the Dry Restoration zones, suggesting a potential strategy to focus reef development in Wet Restoration zones to ensure reef network sustainability through years with high precipitation and river inflow. The off-bottom Aquaculture Zone was the largest (∼6400 km 2 ) zone identified, with much of this area located more down-estuary and off-shore. Accounting for variable water quality conditions enables the development of a network of reefs resilient to environmental variability, and more stable areas for consistent off-bottom aquaculture production. Spatial planning and identification of oyster resource zones reduces focus on individual reef success and supports management of oyster metapopulation outcomes, while identifying zones supportive of off-bottom aquaculture.

Louisiana↗

Risk assessment of brine contamination to aquatic resources from energy development in glacial drift deposits: Williston Basin, USA

Contamination to aquatic resources from co-produced water (brine) associated with energy development has been documented in the northeastern portion of the Williston Basin; an area mantled by glacial drift. The presence and magnitude of brine contamination can be determined using the contamination index (CI) value from water samples. Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey published a section (~ 2.59 km 2 ) level risk assessment of brine contamination to aquatic resources for Sheridan County, Montana, using oilfield and hydrogeological parameters. Our goal was to improve the Sheridan County assessment (SCA) and evaluate the use of this new Williston Basin assessment (WBA) across 31 counties mantled by glacial drift in the Williston Basin. To determine if the WBA model improved the SCA model, results from both assessments were compared to CI values from 37 surface and groundwater samples collected to evaluate the SCA. The WBA (R 2 = 0.65) outperformed the SCA (R 2 = 0.52) indicating improved model performance. Applicability across the Williston Basin was evaluated by comparing WBA results to CI values from 123 surface water samples collected from 97 sections. Based on the WBA, the majority (83.5%) of sections lacked an oil well and had minimal risk. Sections with one or more oil wells comprised low (8.4%), moderate (6.5%), or high (1.7%) risk areas. The percentage of contaminated water samples, percentage of sections with at least one contaminated sample, and the average CI value of contaminated samples increased from low to high risk indicating applicability across the Williston Basin. Furthermore, the WBA performed better compared to only the contaminated samples (R 2 = 0.62) versus all samples (R 2 = 0.38). This demonstrates that the WBA was successful at identifying sections, but not individual aquatic resources, with an increased risk of contamination; therefore, WBA results can prioritize future sampling within areas of increased risk.

Montana, North Dakota↗

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Temporal variation and scale in movement-based resource selection functions

A common population characteristic of interest in animal ecology studies pertains to the selection of resources. That is, given the resources available to animals, what do they ultimately choose to use? A variety of statistical approaches have been employed to examine this question and each has advantages and disadvantages with respect to the form of available data and the properties of estimators given model assumptions. A wealth of high resolution telemetry data are now being collected to study animal population movement and space use and these data present both challenges and opportunities for statistical inference. We summarize traditional methods for resource selection and then describe several extensions to deal with measurement uncertainty and an explicit movement process that exists in studies involving high-resolution telemetry data. Our approach uses a correlated random walk movement model to obtain temporally varying use and availability distributions that are employed in a weighted distribution context to estimate selection coefficients. The temporally varying coefficients are then weighted by their contribution to selection and combined to provide inference at the population level. The result is an intuitive and accessible statistical procedure that uses readily available software and is computationally feasible for large datasets. These methods are demonstrated using data collected as part of a large-scale mountain lion monitoring study in Colorado, USA.

Statistical Methodology↗

Volcanology curricula development aided by online educational resource

Volcanic activity is an excellent hook for engaging college and university students in geoscience classes. An increasing number of Internet-accessible real-time and near–real time volcano monitoring data are now available and constitute an important resource for geoscience education; however, relatively few data sets are comprehensive, and many lack background information to aid in interpretation. In response to the need for organized, accessible, and well-documented volcano education resources, the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), in collaboration with NASA and the University of Hawai`i at Manoa, established the Volcanoes Exploration Project: Pu`u `Ō`ō (VEPP). The VEPP Web site (http://vepp.wr.usgs.gov) is an educational resource that provides access, in near real time, to geodetic, seismic, and geologic data from the active Pu`u `Ō`ō eruptive vent on Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, along with background and context information. A strength of the VEPP site is the common theme of the Pu`u `Ō`ō eruption, which allows the site to be revisited multiple times to demonstrate different principles and integrate many aspects of volcanology.

Hawai'i↗

Cross-scale phenological data integration to benefit resource management and monitoring

Climate change is presenting new challenges for natural resource managers charged with maintaining sustainable ecosystems and landscapes. Phenology, a branch of science dealing with seasonal natural phenomena (bird migration or plant flowering in response to weather changes, for example), bridges the gap between the biosphere and the climate system. Phenological processes operate across scales that span orders of magnitude—from leaf to globe and from days to seasons—making phenology ideally suited to multiscale, multiplatform data integration and delivery of information at spatial and temporal scales suitable to inform resource management decisions. A workshop report: Workshop held June 2016 to investigate opportunities and challenges facing multi-scale, multi-platform integration of phenological data to support natural resource management decision-making.

Conference Paper↗

Potentially exploitable supercritical geothermal resources in the ductile crust

The hypothesis that the brittle–ductile transition (BDT) drastically reduces permeability implies that potentially exploitable geothermal resources (permeability >10 −16 m 2 ) consisting of supercritical water could occur only in rocks with unusually high transition temperatures such as basalt. However, tensile fracturing is possible even in ductile rocks, and some permeability–depth relations proposed for the continental crust show no drastic permeability reduction at the BDT. Here we present experimental results suggesting that the BDT is not the first-order control on rock permeability, and that potentially exploitable resources may occur in rocks with much lower BDT temperatures, such as the granitic rocks that comprise the bulk of the continental crust. We find that permeability behaviour for fractured granite samples at 350–500 °C under effective confining stress is characterized by a transition from a weakly stress-dependent and reversible behaviour to a strongly stress-dependent and irreversible behaviour at a specific, temperature-dependent effective confining stress level. This transition is induced by onset of plastic normal deformation of the fracture surface (elastic–plastic transition) and, importantly, causes no ‘jump’ in the permeability. Empirical equations for this permeability behaviour suggest that potentially exploitable resources exceeding 450 °C may form at depths of 2–6 km even in the nominally ductile crust.

Nature Geoscience↗

Influence of precipitation and crop germination on resource selection by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in southwest Colorado

Mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) populations in the western United States provide many benefits to local economies but can also cause considerable damage to agriculture, particularly damage to lucrative crops. Limited information exists to understand resource selection of mule deer in response to annual variation in crop rotation and climatic conditions. We tested the hypothesis that mule deer select certain crops, and in particular sunflower, based on annual climatic variability. Our objective was to use movements, estimates of home range, and resource selection analysis to identify resources selected by mule deer. We used annually-derived crop-specific datasets along with Global Positioning System collars to monitor 14 mule deer in an agricultural area near public lands in southwestern Colorado, USA. We estimated home ranges for two winter seasons that ranged between 7.68 and 9.88 km 2 , and for two summer seasons that ranged between 5.51 and 6.24 km 2 . Mule deer selected areas closer to forest and alfalfa for most periods during 2012, but selected areas closer to sunflower in a majority of periods during 2013. Considerable annual variation in climate patterns and precipitation levels appeared to influence selection by mule deer because of variability in crop rotation and success of germination of specific crops.

Colorado, Utah↗

Three-dimensional partitioning of resources by congeneric forest predators with recent sympatry

Coexistence of ecologically similar species can be maintained by partitioning along one or more niche axes. Three-dimensional structural complexity is central to facilitating resource partitioning between many forest species, but is underrepresented in field-based studies. We examined resource selection by sympatric northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), a threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act, and nonnative barred owls (S. varia) in western Oregon, USA to explore the relative importance of canopy heterogeneity, vertical complexity of forest, and abiotic features to resource selection and identify potential differences that may facilitate long-term coexistence. We predicted that within home range selection of understory densities, measured with airborne lidar, would differ between species based on proportional differences in arboreal and terrestrial prey taken by each owl species. We used discrete choice models and telemetry data from 41 spotted owls and 38 barred owls monitored during 2007–2009 and 2012–2015. Our results suggested that while both species used tall canopy areas more often than low canopy areas, spotted owls were more commonly found in areas with lower tree cover, more developed understory, and steeper slopes. This is the first evidence of fine-scale partitioning based on structural forest properties by northern spotted owls and barred owls.

Oregon↗

Evaluation of the sustainability of deep groundwater as an arsenic-safe resource in the Bengal Basin

Tens of millions of people in the Bengal Basin region of Bangladesh and India drink groundwater containing unsafe concentrations of arsenic. This high-arsenic groundwater is produced from shallow (<100 m) depths by domestic and irrigation wells in the Bengal Basin aquifer system. The government of Bangladesh has begun to install wells to depths of >150 m where groundwater arsenic concentrations are nearly uniformly low, and many more wells are needed, however, the sustainability of deep, arsenic-safe groundwater has not been previously assessed. Deeper pumping could induce downward migration of dissolved arsenic, permanently destroying the deep resource. Here, it is shown, through quantitative, large-scale hydrogeologic analysis and simulation of the entire basin, that the deeper part of the aquifer system may provide a sustainable source of arsenic-safe water if its utilization is limited to domestic supply. Simulations provide two explanations for this result: deep domestic pumping only slightly perturbs the deep groundwater flow system, and substantial shallow pumping for irrigation forms a hydraulic barrier that protects deeper resources from shallow arsenic sources. Additional analysis indicates that this simple management approach could provide arsenic-safe drinking water to >90% of the arsenic-impacted region over a 1,000-year timescale. This insight may assist water-resources managers in alleviating one of the world's largest groundwater contamination problems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Water supply, demand, and quality indicators for assessing the spatial distribution of water resource vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

We investigated water resource vulnerability in the US portion of the Columbia River basin (CRB) using multiple indicators representing water supply, water demand, and water quality. Based on the US county scale, spatial analysis was conducted using various biophysical and socio-economic indicators that control water vulnerability. Water supply vulnerability and water demand vulnerability exhibited a similar spatial clustering of hotspots in areas where agricultural lands and variability of precipitation were high but dam storage capacity was low. The hotspots of water quality vulnerability were clustered around the main stem of the Columbia River where major population and agricultural centres are located. This multiple equal weight indicator approach confirmed that different drivers were associated with different vulnerability maps in the sub-basins of the CRB. Water quality variables are more important than water supply and water demand variables in the Willamette River basin, whereas water supply and demand variables are more important than water quality variables in the Upper Snake and Upper Columbia River basins. This result suggests that current water resources management and practices drive much of the vulnerability within the study area. The analysis suggests the need for increased coordination of water management across multiple levels of water governance to reduce water resource vulnerability in the CRB and a potentially different weighting scheme that explicitly takes into account the input of various water stakeholders.

Atmosphere - Ocean↗

Navigating ecological transformation: Resist-accept-direct as a path to a new resource management paradigm

Natural resource managers worldwide face a growing challenge: Intensifying global change increasingly propels ecosystems toward irreversible ecological transformations. This nonstationarity challenges traditional conservation goals and human well-being. It also confounds a longstanding management paradigm that assumes a future that reflects the past. As once-familiar ecological conditions disappear, managers need a new approach to guide decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework, designed for and by managers, identifies the options managers have for responding and helps them make informed, purposeful, and strategic choices in this context. Moving beyond the diversity and complexity of myriad emerging frameworks, RAD is a simple, flexible, decision-making tool that encompasses the entire decision space for stewarding transforming ecosystems. Through shared application of a common approach, the RAD framework can help the wider natural resource management and research community build the robust, shared habits of mind necessary for a new, twenty-first-century natural resource management paradigm.

BioScience↗

Adaptive resource management: Achieving functional eradication of invasive snakes to benefit avian conservation

Natural resource management often co-occurs with considerable uncertainty. One approach to mitigating uncertainty is through adaptive resource management (ARM), a specialized form of structured decision-making that modifies management decisions or actions through monitoring and implementation. Here, we present a case study on the attempted eradication of an invasive brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ) in a 5-ha enclosure on Guam with uncertainty in approach. We applied an ARM process across three field phases of snake removal and evaluated whether (1) eradication was achievable and (2) eradication was necessary to achieve an avian response. Field phases included the application of aerial toxic baits, toxicant baiting large mouse and birds, trapping with live mouse and bird lures and hand capture. We found that each removal technique improved control by either removing many individuals or targeting a subset of individuals that resisted prior control approaches. Although the effort did not result in eradication, the evaluation of identified indicators allowed for timely adjustments to removal using the ARM process. The snake removal efforts yielded an avian response in the treatment area after integrating live birds as snake lures, suggesting functional eradication of snakes may be possible. We also, however, observed a release of invasive rodents following snake control, with birds being more sensitive to the presence of snakes than rodents. Synthesis and applications . We suggest that using adaptive resource management to evaluate each phase of action in relation to established goals allowed us to measure outcomes and was successful in eliminating uncertainty in the application of control tools for wildlife conservation. We were able to create a documented and successful approach towards removing snakes inside a snake-exclusion barrier by following the ARM process.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗