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USGS2010

Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

Context: Reproduction is a critical component of fitness, and understanding factors that influence temporal and spatial dynamics in reproductive output is important for effective management and conservation. Although several indices of reproductive output for wide-ranging species, such as migratory birds, exist, there has been no theoretical justification for their estimators or associated measures of variance. Aims: The aims of our research were to develop statistical justification for an estimator of reproduction and associated variances on the basis of an existing national wing-collection survey and banding data, and to demonstrate the applicability of this estimator to a migratory game bird. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to integrate wing-collection data, which provides information on population age ratios, and band-recovery data, which provides information on recovery probabilities of various age classes, for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) to estimate productivity and associated measures of variance. We present two models of relative vulnerability between age classes: one model assumed that adult recovery probabilities were higher, but that annual fluctuations were synchronous between the two age classes (i.e. an additive effect of age and year). The second model assumed that adults, on average, had higher recovery probabilities than did juveniles and that annual fluctuations were asynchronous through time (i.e. an interaction between age and year). Key results: Fitting our models within a hierarchical Bayesian framework efficiently incorporates the two data types into a single estimator and derives appropriate variances for the productivity estimator. Further, use of Bayesian methods enabled us to derive credible intervals that avoid the reliance on asymptotic assumptions. When applied to American woodcock data, the additive model resulted in biologically realistic and more precise age-ratio estimates each year and is adequate when the relative vulnerability to sampling only slightly varies or does not vary among components of a population (e.g. age, sex class) among years. Therefore, we recommend using woodcock indices from our analysis based on this model. Conclusions: We provide a flexible modelling framework for estimating productivity and associated variances that can incorporate ecological covariates to explore various factors that could drive annual dynamics in productivity. Applying our model to the American woodcock data indicated that assumptions about the variability in relative recovery probabilities could greatly influence the precision of our productivity estimator. Therefore, researchers should carefully consider the assumption of temporally variable relative recovery probabilities (i.e. ratio of juvenile to adults' recovery probability) for different age classes when applying this estimator. Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

Wildlife Research↗

USGS2015

Effects of hybridization between nonnative Rainbow Trout and native Westslope Cutthroat Trout on fitness-related traits

Hybridization between introduced and native fauna is a risk to native species and may threaten the long-term persistence of numerous taxa. Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss has been one of the most widely introduced species around the globe and often hybridizes with native Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii in the Rocky Mountains. Previous work has shown that hybridization negatively affects reproductive success, but identification of the traits contributing to that reduction has been elusive. In this study, we used a combination of field and laboratory techniques to assess how hybridization with Rainbow Trout affects seven traits during several stages of Westslope Cutthroat Trout development: embryonic survival, ova size, ova energy concentration, sperm motility, juvenile weight, juvenile survival, and burst swimming endurance. Rainbow Trout admixture was correlated with an increase in embryonic survival and ova energy concentration but with a decrease in juvenile weight and burst swimming endurance. These correlations differed from previously observed patterns of reproductive success and likely do not explain the declines in reproductive success associated with admixture. Future investigation of additional, unstudied traits and the use of different environments may shed light on the traits responsible for reproductive success in admixed Cutthroat Trout.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2014

A conceptual framework for clutch size evolution in songbirds

Causes of evolved differences in clutch size among songbird species remain debated. I propose a new conceptual framework that integrates aspects of traditional life history theory, while including novel elements, to explain evolution of clutch size among songbirds. I review evidence that selection by nest predation on length of time that offspring develop in the nest creates a gradient in offspring characteristics at nest-leaving (fledging), including flight mobility, spatial dispersion, and self-feeding rate. I postulate that this gradient has consequences for offspring mortality rates and parental energy expenditure per offspring. These consequences then determine how reproductive effort is partitioned among offspring, while reproductive effort evolves from age-specific mortality effects. Using data from a long-term site in Arizona, as well as from the literature, I provide support for hypothesized relationships. Nestling development period consistently explains fledgling mortality, energy expenditure per offspring, and clutch size while accounting for reproductive effort (i.e., total energy expenditure) to thereby support the framework. Tests in this paper are not definitive, but they document previously unrecognized relationships and address diverse traits (developmental strategies, parental care strategies, energy requirements per offspring, evolution of reproductive effort, clutch size) that justify further investigations of hypotheses proposed here.

American Naturalist↗

USGS2018

Cyanobacteria reduce quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) spawning and fertilization success

Quagga mussels ( Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) are highly fecund broadcast spawners invasive to freshwaters of North America and western Europe. We hypothesized that environmental cues from phytoplankton can trigger gamete release in quagga mussels. Nutritious algae may stimulate dreissenid spawning, but less palatable food, such as bloom-forming cyanobacteria, could be a hindrance. The objective of our study was to test whether exposure to cyanobacteria can inhibit quagga mussel spawning and fertilization. We assessed spawning in the presence of serotonin, a known spawning inducer, where adult quagga mussels placed in individual vials were exposed to 13 cyanobacteria cultures and purified algal toxin (microcystin-LR) with artificial lake water as the control. Fertilization success was evaluated by combining eggs with sperm in conjunction with cyanobacteria, and enumerating zygote formation marked by cellular cleavage. Several cyanobacterial strains reduced spawning and fertilization success, but microcystin-LR had no effect. Fertilization was more sensitive to cyanobacteria than gamete release. Only 1 culture, Aphanizomenon flos-aquae , inhibited spawning, whereas 6 cultures consisting of Anabaena flos-aquae , Dolichospermum lemmermanii , Gloeotrichia echinulata , Lyngbya wollei , and 2 Microcystis aeruginosa isolates reduced fertilization rates by up to 44%. The effects of cyanobacteria on reproduction in invasive freshwater mussels in the wild have not yet been identified. However, our laboratory studies show that concentrations of cyanobacteria that are possible during bloom conditions probably limit reproduction. Reproductive consequences on wild populations may become more prevalent as cyanobacteria blooms occur earlier in the year, making overlap between blooms and mussel spawning more common. Describing the mechanism by which cyanobacteria inhibit spawning and fertilization could reveal novel control methods to limit reproduction of this invasive species.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2016

Physical condition and stress levels during early development reflect feeding rates and predict pre- and post-fledging survival in a nearshore seabird

The effects of acute environmental stressors on reproduction in wildlife are often difficult to measure because of the labour and disturbance involved in collecting accurate reproductive data. Stress hormones represent a promising option for assessing the effects of environmental perturbations on altricial young; however, it is necessary first to establish how stress levels are affected by environmental conditions during development and whether elevated stress results in reduced survival and recruitment rates. In birds, the stress hormone corticosterone is deposited in feathers during the entire period of feather growth, making it an integrated measure of background stress levels during development. We tested the utility of feather corticosterone levels in 3- to 4-week-old nestling brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis ) for predicting survival rates at both the individual and colony levels. We also assessed the relationship of feather corticosterone to nestling body condition and rates of energy delivery to nestlings. Chicks with higher body condition and lower corticosterone levels were more likely to fledge and to be resighted after fledging, whereas those with lower body condition and higher corticosterone levels were less likely to fledge or be resighted after fledging. Feather corticosterone was also associated with intracolony differences in survival between ground and elevated nest sites. Colony-wide, mean feather corticosterone predicted nest productivity, chick survival and post-fledging dispersal more effectively than did body condition, although these relationships were strongest before fledglings dispersed away from the colony. Both reproductive success and nestling corticosterone were strongly related to nutritional conditions, particularly meal delivery rates. We conclude that feather corticosterone is a powerful predictor of reproductive success and could provide a useful metric for rapidly assessing the effects of changes in environmental conditions, provided pre-existing baseline variation is monitored and understood.

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2026

Increasing density from population recovery does not explain elevated partial brood loss in a threatened cooperative breeder

Partial brood loss in Dryobates borealis (Red-cockaded Woodpecker), a federally threatened cooperative breeder in the USA, was not associated with increases in population density. Across three populations—Sandhills, North Carolina; Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina; and Eglin Air Force Base, Florida—we documented no support for density-dependent effects on either early or late partial brood loss. Using long-term nest monitoring data, we evaluated multiple metrics of group size and group density in relation to brood loss at early (egg-to-nestling up to 6–10 days when banded) and late (banding-to-fledgling up to 38–40 days) stages. Reproductive outcomes did not vary with density within populations, indicating that the recent rise in partial brood loss, particularly late in the nestling period, was not driven by increasing density. While both density and partial brood loss have increased over time, these trends appear to be decoupled, highlighting the need to investigate other potential drivers of partial brood loss. Cooperative breeding can buffer reproductive output from density-related pressures through shared parental care, but as densities increase due to conservation-driven population recovery, cooperative breeders may face new or shifting constraints. Variation in reproductive outcomes may be more closely tied to site-specific factors or density-independent pressures such as weather, predation, or habitat quality. As D. borealis populations continue to grow under ongoing recovery efforts, understanding the mechanisms behind partial brood loss remains critical for refining conservation strategies. Our results add to growing evidence that density-dependent effects on reproduction are not universal; increasing density, though a conservation success, does not necessarily lead to reduced productivity or increased brood loss.

Florida, North Carolina↗

USGS2017

Life histories and conservation of long-lived reptiles, an illustration with the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

Successful species conservation is dependent on adequate estimates of population dynamics, but age-specific demographics are generally lacking for many long-lived iteroparous species such as large reptiles. Accurate demographic information allows estimation of population growth rate, as well as projection of future population sizes and quantitative analyses of fitness trade-offs involved in the evolution of life-history strategies. Here, a long-term capture–recapture study was conducted from 1978 to 2014 on the American crocodile ( Crocodylus acutus ) in southern Florida. Over the study period, 7,427 hatchlings were marked and 380 individuals were recaptured for as many as 25 years. We estimated survival to be strongly age dependent with hatchlings having the lowest survival rates (16%) but increasing to nearly 90% at adulthood based on mark–recapture models. More than 5% of the female population were predicted to be reproductive by age 8 years; the age-specific proportion of reproductive females steadily increased until age 18 when more than 95% of females were predicted to be reproductive. Population growth rate, estimated from a Leslie–Lefkovitch stage-class model, showed a positive annual growth rate of 4% over the study period. Using a prospective sensitivity analysis, we revealed that the adult stage, as expected, was the most critical stage for population growth rate; however, the survival of younger crocodiles before they became reproductive also had a surprisingly high elasticity. We found that variation in age-specific fecundity has very limited impact on population growth rate in American crocodiles. We used a comparative approach to show that the original life-history strategy of American crocodiles is actually shared by other large, long-lived reptiles: while adult survival rates always have a large impact on population growth, this decreases with declining increasing growth rates, in favour of a higher elasticity of the juvenile stage. Crocodiles, as a long-lived and highly fecund species, deviate from the usual association of life histories of “slow” species. Current management practices are focused on nests and hatchling survival; however, protection efforts that extend to juvenile crocodiles would be most effective for conservation of the species, especially in an ever-developing landscape.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2020

Mate fidelity improves survival and breeding propensity of a long‐lived bird

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation in mating behaviour observed in nature. Although much of the research on this topic has focused on the consequences of mate choice and mate change on annual reproductive success, studies of a potential positive link between mate fidelity and adult demographic rates have been comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long‐lived birds with multi‐year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used a 26‐year capture–mark–recapture dataset of 3,330 black brent Branta bernicla nigricans to test whether breeding with a familiar mate improved future breeding propensity and survival. We predicted that experienced breeders nesting with a new partner would have rates of survival similar to familiar pairs because long‐lived species avoid jeopardizing survival since their lifetime fitness is sensitive to this vital rate. In contrast, we expected that any costs of breeding with a new partner would be paid through skipping the subsequent breeding attempt. We found that unfamiliar pairs had lower subsequent breeding propensity than faithful partners. However, contrary to our expectations, individuals breeding with a new mate also suffered reduced survival. These results add to a small number of studies indicating that a positive relationship between mate retention and adult demographic rates may exist in a diverse array of avian species. Given these results, researchers should consider costs of mate change that extend beyond within‐season reproductive success to fully understand the potential adaptive basis for perennial social monogamy. We caution that if mate retention enhances survival prospects, improvements in annual reproductive success with pair‐bond length could be a secondary factor favouring perennial social monogamy, particularly in species with slower life‐history strategies. Furthermore, some cases where annual reproductive success does not improve with pair‐bond duration, yet multi‐year pair bonds are common, could be explained by benefits afforded by mate fidelity to adult vital rates.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2022

Context-dependent variation in persistence of host populations in the face of disease

Research Highlight : Valenzuela-Sánchez, A., Azat, C., Cunningham, A. A., Delgado, S., Bacigalupe, L. D., Beltrand, J., Serrano, J. M., Sentenac, H., Haddow, N., Toledo, V., Schmidt, B. R., & Cayuela, H. (2022). Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology , 00 , 1– 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13603 . Understanding the nuances of population persistence in the face of a stressor can help predict extinction risk and guide conservation actions. However, the exact mechanisms driving population stability may not always be known. In this paper, Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. (2022) integrate long-term mark–recapture data, focal measurements of reproductive effort, a population matrix model and inferences on life-history variation to reveal differences in demographic response to disease in a susceptible frog species ( Rhinoderma darwinii ). Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. found that demographic compensation via recruitment explained the positive population growth rate in their high disease prevalence population whereas the low disease prevalence population did not compensate and thus had decreasing population growth. Compensatory recruitment was likely due to the high probability of males brooding, and the high number of brooded larvae in the high prevalence population compared to low prevalence and disease-free populations. Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. also document faster generation times in the high prevalence population, which may indicate a faster life history that may be contributing to the population's ability to compensate for reduced survival. Lastly, the authors find a positive relationship between disease prevalence and the proportion of juveniles in a given population that suggest that there may be a threshold for disease prevalence that triggers increased reproductive effort. Altogether, their study provides novel support for increased reproductive effort as the pathway for compensatory recruitment leading to increasing population growth despite strong negative effects of disease on adult survival. Their results also caution the overgeneralization of the effects of stressors (e.g. disease) on population dynamics, where context-dependent responses may differ among host populations of a given species.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2025

Seasonal body mass dynamics mediate life-history trade-offs in a hibernating mammal

1. Energetic acquisition and growth are key traits that affect demography and life-history strategies. Many animals that live in seasonal environments in which food availability fluctuates store energy endogenously as fat in anticipation of food shortage. Fat-storing mammalian hibernators are an extreme example of this strategy where the optimal resolution of resource allocation trade-offs is essential to survival. Hence, these species provide an opportunity to test potential causes and consequences of seasonal body mass dynamics. 2. We used a 12-year dataset with 8753 body mass records from 3351 individually marked northern Idaho ground squirrels ( Urocitellus brunneus ) – a federally threatened hibernator – to meet three objectives: (1) document seasonal body mass changes by sex, age, and reproductive status, (2) test ecological hypotheses to explain spatiotemporal variation in body mass, and (3) document fitness consequences of pre-hibernation body condition via condition-dependent overwinter survival. 3. Squirrels varied substantially in seasonal body mass dynamics. The magnitude (36-155%) and onset (late May to early July) of rapid active-season mass gain varied among demographic groups. Reproductive females acquired the necessary fat stores to survive hibernation later in the active season than did males and non-reproductive females. Moreover, squirrels with better pre-hibernation body condition were more likely to survive to the subsequent year, potentially because they allocated excess energetic reserves to prolonging hibernation via early immergence and thereby reduced predation risk. These results suggest a direct trade-off between current and future reproduction mediated by resource acquisition and allocation, as predicted by life-history theory. 4. Colder active-season temperatures and lower conspecific densities negatively influenced squirrel body condition, possibly via reductions in foraging activity associated with those conditions. These ecological effects on body condition constrain resource allocation and demographic outcomes. As such, our results can help guide research and conservation strategies to benefit hibernating animals.

Idaho↗

USGS2015

Evidence of counter-gradient growth in western pond turtles ( Actinemys marmorata ) across thermal gradients

Counter-gradient growth, where growth per unit temperature increases as temperature decreases, can reduce the variation in ectothermic growth rates across environmental gradients. Understanding how ectothermic species respond to changing temperatures is essential to their conservation and management due to human-altered habitats and changing climates. Here, we use two contrasting populations of western pond turtles ( Actinemys marmorata ) to model the effect of artificial and variable temperature regimes on growth and age at reproductive maturity. The two populations occur on forks of the Trinity River in northern California, U.S.A. The South Fork Trinity River (South Fork) is unregulated, while the main stem of the Trinity River (Main Stem) is dammed and has peak seasonal temperatures that are approximately 10 °C colder than the South Fork. Consistent with other studies, we found reduced annual growth rates for turtles in the colder Main Stem compared to the warmer South Fork. The South Fork population matured approximately 9 year earlier, on average, and at a larger body size than the Main Stem population. When we normalised growth rates for the thermal opportunity for growth using water-growing degree-days (GDD), we found the reverse for growth rates and age at reproductive maturity. Main Stem turtles grew approximately twice as fast as South Fork turtles per GDD. Main Stem turtles also required approximately 50% fewer GDD to reach their smaller size at reproductive maturity compared to the larger South Fork turtles. We found we could accurately hindcast growth rates based on water temperatures estimated from the total volume of discharge from the dam into the Main Stem, providing a management tool for predicting the impacts of the dam on turtle growth rates. Given the importance of size and age at reproductive maturity to population dynamics, this information on counter-gradient growth will improve our ability to understand and predict the consequences of dam operations for downstream turtle populations.

California↗

USGS2015

Depth of artificial Burrowing Owl burrows affects thermal suitability and occupancy

Many organizations have installed artificial burrows to help bolster local Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia ) populations. However, occupancy probability and reproductive success in artificial burrows varies within and among burrow installations. We evaluated the possibility that depth below ground might explain differences in occupancy probability and reproductive success by affecting the temperature of artificial burrows. We measured burrow temperatures from March to July 2010 in 27 artificial burrows in southern California that were buried 15–76 cm below the surface (measured between the surface and the top of the burrow chamber). Burrow depth was one of several characteristics that affected burrow temperature. Burrow temperature decreased by 0.03°C per cm of soil on top of the burrow. The percentage of time that artificial burrows provided a thermal refuge from above-ground temperature decreased with burrow depth and ranged between 50% and 58% among burrows. The percentage of time that burrow temperature was optimal for incubating females also decreased with burrow depth and ranged between 27% and 100% among burrows. However, the percentage of time that burrow temperature was optimal for unattended eggs increased with burrow depth and ranged between 11% and 95% among burrows. We found no effect of burrow depth on reproductive success across 21 nesting attempts. However, occupancy probability had a non-linear relationship with burrow depth. The shallowest burrows (15 cm) had a moderate probability of being occupied (0.46), burrows between 28 and 40 cm had the highest probability of being occupied (>0.80), and burrows >53 cm had the lowest probability of being occupied (<0.43). Burrowing Owls may prefer burrows at moderate depths because these burrows provide a thermal refuge from above-ground temperatures, and are often cool enough to allow females to leave eggs unattended before the onset of full-time incubation, but not too cool for incubating females that spend most of their time in the burrow during incubation. Our results suggest that depth is an important consideration when installing artificial burrows for Burrowing Owls. However, additional study is needed to determine the possible effects of burrow depth on reproductive success and on possible tradeoffs between the effects of burrow depth on optimal temperature and other factors, such as minimizing the risk of nest predation.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2019

Comparative breeding ecology of Mississippi Kites in urban and exurban areas of West Texas

Birds of prey are becoming increasingly common occupants of urbanized settings, but the comparative benefits or detriments they experience in urban environs compared to exurban areas are poorly understood. We examined the reproductive success and phenology of Mississippi Kites ( Ictinia mississippiensis ) nesting concurrently in urban and exurban areas in west Texas during the 2010–2012 and 2014 breeding seasons. Our objective was to better understand the reproductive advantages or disadvantages that kites may experience by nesting in urban areas rather than exurban areas. We calculated annual productivity, estimated daily survival rates of nests, and estimated hatch dates. Kites produced 0.52 fledglings per urban nesting attempt and 0.33 fledglings per exurban nesting attempt. We found no difference in the mean number of young that fledged from successful urban (1.06) and exurban (1.07) nests, but kites in urban areas had greater nesting success within years than those in exurban areas. Both heat and drought were associated with low productivity and success in both areas, but the urban landscape appears to have provided some buffer to their effects. These factors may have had direct (e.g., exposure) or indirect (e.g., negative influences on prey availability) influences on reproductive success. Counter to previous studies of urban raptors, we found that exurban kites nested significantly earlier than urban kites. This may be linked to differences in environmental conditions and prey availability between the areas. Our results suggest that urban areas provide a reproductive advantage for Mississippi Kites in terms of facilitating an overall higher nesting success, but this does not translate into increased productivity for successful pairs. Further, our data suggest that, although urban areas may buffer species from drought or heat, that buffer can be breached during severe conditions.

Texas↗

USGS2014

An experimental investigation of chemical communication in the polar bear

The polar bear ( U rsus maritimus ), with its wide-ranging movements, solitary existence and seasonal reproduction, is expected to favor chemosignaling over other communication modalities. However, the topography of its Arctic sea ice habitat is generally lacking in stationary vertical substrates routinely used for targeted scent marking in other bears. These environmental constraints may have shaped a marking strategy, unique to polar bears, for widely dispersed continuous dissemination of scent via foot pads. To investigate the role of chemical communication, pedal scents were collected from free-ranging polar bears of different sex and reproductive classes captured on spring sea ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, and presented in a controlled fashion to 26 bears in zoos. Results from behavioral bioassays indicated that bears, especially females, were more likely to approach conspecific scent during the spring than the fall. Male flehmen behavior, indicative of chemosignal delivery to the vomeronasal organ, differentiated scent donor by sex and reproductive condition. Histologic examination of pedal skin collected from two females indicated prominent and profuse apocrine glands in association with large compound hair follicles, suggesting that they may produce scents that function as chemosignals. These results suggest that pedal scent, regardless of origin, conveys information to conspecifics that may facilitate social and reproductive behavior, and that chemical communication in this species has been adaptively shaped by environmental constraints of its habitat. However, continuously distributed scent signals necessary for breeding behavior may prove less effective if current and future environmental conditions cause disruption of scent trails due to increased fracturing of sea ice.

Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2015

A plant toxin mediated mechanism for the lag in snowshoe hare population recovery following cyclic declines

A necessary condition for a snowshoe hare population to cycle is reduced reproduction after the population declines. But the cause of a cyclic snowshoe hare population's reduced reproduction during the low phase of the cycle, when predator density collapses, is not completely understood. We propose that moderate-severe browsing by snowshoe hares upon preferred winter-foods could increase the toxicity of some of the hare's best winter-foods during the following hare low, with the result being a decline in hare nutrition that could reduce hare reproduction. We used a combination of modeling and experiments to explore this hypothesis. Using the shrub birch Betula glandulosa as the plant of interest, the model predicted that browsing by hares during a hare cycle peak, by increasing the toxicity B. glandulosa twigs during the following hare low, could cause a hare population to cycle. The model's assumptions were verified with assays of dammarane triterpenes in segments of B. glandulosa twigs and captive hare feeding experiments conducted in Alaska during February and March 1986. The model's predictions were tested with estimates of hare density and measurements of B. glandulosa twig growth made at Kluane, Yukon from 1988–2008. The empirical tests supported the model's predictions. Thus, we have concluded that a browsing-caused increase in twig toxicity that occurs during the hare cycle's low phase could reduce hare reproduction during the low phase of the hare cycle.

Yukon↗

USGS2003

Population dynamics of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) across a nitrogen-amended landscape

We conducted a mark-recapture experiment to examine the population dynamics of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) in response to low-level nitrogen amendments (16.4 kg nitrogen/ha per year) and exclosure fencing in an old-field grassland. The experimental design consisted of sixteen 0.16-ha plots with 4 replicates of each treatment combination. We predicted that densities, reproductive success, movement probabilities, and survival rates of cotton rats would be greater on nitrogen-amended plots because of greater aboveground biomass and canopy cover. Population densities of cotton rats tended to be highest on fenced nitrogen plots, but densities on unfenced nitrogen plots were similar to those on control and fenced plots. We observed no distinct patterns in survival rates, reproductive success, or movement probabilities with regard to nitrogen treatments. However, survival rates and reproductive success tended to be higher for cotton rats on fenced plots than for those on unfenced plots and this was likely attributable to decreased predation on fenced plots. As low-level nitrogen amendments continue to be applied, we predict that survival, reproduction, and population-growth rates of cotton rats on control plots, especially fenced plots with no nitrogen amendment, will eventually exceed those on nitrogen-amended plots as a result of higher plant-species diversity, greater food availability, and better quality cover.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2025

Identifying presence or absence of grizzly and polar bear cubs from the movements of adult females with machine learning

Background Information on reproductive success is crucial to understanding population dynamics but can be difficult to obtain, particularly for species that birth while denning. For grizzly ( Ursus arctos ) and polar bears ( U. maritimus ), den visits are impractical because of safety and logistical considerations. Reproduction is typically documented through direct observation, which can be difficult, costly, and often occurs long after den departure. Reproduction could be documented remotely, however, from post-denning movement data if discernable differences exist between females with and without cubs. Methods We trained support vector machines (SVMs) with eight variables derived from telemetry data of female grizzly (2000–2022) and polar bears (1985–2016) with or without cubs during seven periods with lengths ranging from 5 to 60 days starting at den departure. We assessed SVM classification accuracy by withholding two samples (one cub-present, one cub-absent), training SVMs with the remaining data, predicting classification of the withheld samples, and repeating this process for each sample combination. Additionally, we evaluated how classification accuracy for grizzly bears was influenced by sample size, length of the post-departure period, and frequency of standardized location estimates. Results Accuracy of predicting cub presence or absence was 87% for grizzly bears with only 5 days of post-departure data and increased to a maximum of 92% with 20 days of data. For polar bears, accuracy was 86% at 5 days post-departure and increased to a maximum of 93% at 50 days. Classification accuracy for grizzly bears increased from 76 to 90% when sample size increased from 10 to 30 bears while holding period length constant (30 days) but did not increase at larger sample sizes. When sample size was held constant, increasing the length of the post-departure period did not affect classification accuracy markedly. Conclusion Presence or absence of grizzly and polar bear cubs can be identified with high accuracy even when SVM models are trained with limited data. Detecting cub presence or absence remotely could improve estimates of reproductive success and litter survival, enhancing our understanding of factors affecting cub recruitment.

Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Advancing the match-mismatch framework for large herbivores in the Arctic: Evaluating the evidence for a trophic mismatch in caribou

Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic “mismatches” between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near the onset of the growing season but are they vulnerable to trophic mismatch? We evaluated the long-term changes in the temperatures and characteristics of the growing seasons (1970–2013), and compared growing conditions and dynamics of forage quality for caribou at peak parturition, peak lactation, and peak forage biomass, and plant senescence between two distinct time periods over 36 years (1977 and 2011–13). Despite advanced thaw dates (7−12 days earlier), increased growing season lengths (15−21 days longer), and consistent parturition dates, we found no decline in forage quality and therefore no evidence within this dataset for a trophic mismatch at peak parturition or peak lactation from 1977 to 2011–13. In Arctic ungulates that use stored capital for reproduction, reproductive demands are largely met by body stores deposited in the previous summer and autumn, which reduces potential adverse effects of any mismatch between food availability and timing of parturition. Climate-induced effects on forages growing in the summer and autumn ranges, however, do correspond with the demands of female caribou and their offspring to gain mass for the next reproductive cycle and winter. Therefore, we suggest the window of time to examine the match-mismatch framework in Arctic ungulates is not at parturition but in late summer-autumn, where the multiplier effects of small changes in forage quality are amplified by forage abundance, peak forage intake, and resultant mass gains in mother-offspring pairs.

Alaska↗