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USGS2023

A big data–model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus ) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host–pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data–model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New ↗

USGS2024

Chronic wasting disease alters the movement behavior and habitat use of mule deer during clinical stages of infection

Integrating host movement and pathogen data is a central issue in wildlife disease ecology that will allow for a better understanding of disease transmission. We examined how adult female mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) responded behaviorally to infection with chronic wasting disease (CWD). We compared movement and habitat use of CWD-infected deer ( n = 18) to those that succumbed to starvation (and were CWD-negative by ELISA and IHC; n = 8) and others in which CWD was not detected ( n = 111, including animals that survived the duration of the study) using GPS collar data from two distinct populations collared in central Wyoming, USA during 2018–2022. CWD and predation were the leading causes of mortality during our study (32/91 deaths attributed to CWD and 27/91 deaths attributed to predation). Deer infected with CWD moved slower and used lower elevation areas closer to rivers in the months preceding death compared with uninfected deer that did not succumb to starvation. Although CWD-infected deer and those that died of starvation moved at similar speeds during the final months of life, CWD-infected deer used areas closer to streams with less herbaceous biomass than starved deer. These behavioral differences may allow for the development of predictive models of disease status from movement data, which will be useful to supplement field and laboratory diagnostics or when mortalities cannot be quickly retrieved to assess cause-specific mortality. Furthermore, identifying individuals who are sick before predation events could help to assess the extent to which disease mortality is compensatory with predation. Finally, infected animals began to slow down around 4 months prior to death from CWD. Our approach for detecting the timing of infection-induced shifts in movement behavior may be useful in application to other disease systems to better understand the response of wildlife to infectious disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Genetic variation at the MHC DRB1 locus is similar across Gunnison's prairie dog ( Cynomys gunnisoni ) colonies regardless of plague history

Yersinia pestis was introduced to North America around 1900 and leads to nearly 100% mortality in prairie dog ( Cynomys spp.) colonies during epizootic events, which suggests this pathogen may exert a strong selective force. We characterized genetic diversity at an MHC class II locus ( DRB1 ) in Gunnison's prairie dog ( C. gunnisoni ) and quantified population genetic structure at the DRB1 versus 12 microsatellite loci in three large Arizona colonies. Two colonies, Seligman (SE) and Espee Ranch (ES), have experienced multiple plague-related die-offs in recent years, whereas plague has never been documented at Aubrey Valley (AV). We found fairly low allelic diversity at the DRB1 locus, with one allele ( DRB1 *01) at high frequency (0.67–0.87) in all colonies. Two other DRB1 alleles appear to be trans-species polymorphisms shared with the black-tailed prairie dog ( C. ludovicianus ), indicating that these alleles have been maintained across evolutionary time frames. Estimates of genetic differentiation were generally lower at the MHC locus ( F ST = 0.033) than at microsatellite markers ( F ST = 0.098). The reduced differentiation at DRB1 may indicate that selection has been important for shaping variation at MHC loci, regardless of the presence or absence of plague in recent decades. However, genetic drift has probably also influenced the DRB1 locus because its level of differentiation was not different from that of microsatellites in an F ST outlier analysis. We then compared specific MHC alleles to plague survivorship in 60 C. gunnisoni that had been experimentally infected with Y. pestis . We found that survival was greater in individuals that carried at least one copy of the most common allele ( DRB1 *01) compared to those that did not (60% vs. 20%). Although the sample sizes of these two groups were unbalanced, this result suggests the possibility that this MHC class II locus, or a nearby linked gene, could play a role in plague survival.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

A new tool for studying waterfowl immune and metabolic responses: Molecular level analysis using kinome profiling

Here, we describe the design of an Anas‐ specific kinome peptide array that can be used to study the immunometabolic responses of mallard and American black duck to pathogens, contaminants, and environmental stress. The peptide arrays contain 2,642 unique phosphorylate‐able peptide sequences representing 1,900 proteins. These proteins cover a wide array of metabolic and immunological processes, and 758 Gene Ontology Biological processes are statistically significantly represented on the duck peptide array of those 164 contain the term “metabolic” and 25 “immune.” In addition, we conducted a comparison of mallard to American black duck at a genetic and proteomic level. Our results show a significant genomic and proteomic overlap between these two duck species, so that we have designed a cross‐reactive peptide array capable of studying both species. This is the first reported development of a wildlife species‐specific kinome peptide array.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Estimating distemper virus dynamics among wolves and grizzly bears using serology and Bayesian state‐space models

Many parasites infect multiple hosts, but estimating the transmission across host species remains a key challenge in disease ecology. We investigated the within and across host species dynamics of canine distemper virus (CDV) in grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We hypothesized that grizzly bears may be more likely to be exposed to CDV during outbreaks in the wolf population because grizzly bears often displace wolves while scavenging carcasses. We used serological data collected from 1984 to 2014 in conjunction with Bayesian state‐space models to infer the temporal dynamics of CDV. These models accounted for the unknown timing of pathogen exposure, and we assessed how different testing thresholds and the potential for testing errors affected our conclusions. We identified three main CDV outbreaks (1999, 2005, and 2008) in wolves, which were more obvious when we used higher diagnostic thresholds to qualify as seropositive. There was some evidence for increased exposure rates in grizzly bears in 2005, but the magnitude of the wolf effect on bear exposures was poorly estimated and depended upon our prior distributions. Grizzly bears were exposed to CDV prior to wolf reintroduction and during time periods outside of known wolf outbreaks, thus wolves are only one of several potential routes for grizzly bear exposures. Our modeling approach accounts for several of the shortcomings of serological data and is applicable to many wildlife disease systems, but is most informative when testing intervals are short. CDV circulates in a wide range of carnivore species, but it remains unclear whether the disease persists locally within the GYE carnivore community or is periodically reintroduced from distant regions with larger host populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Hidden cost of disease in a free‐ranging ungulate: brucellosis reduces mid‐winter pregnancy in elk

Demonstrating disease impacts on the vital rates of free‐ranging mammalian hosts typically requires intensive, long‐term study. Evidence for chronic pathogens affecting reproduction but not survival is rare, but has the potential for wide‐ranging effects. Accurately quantifying disease‐associated reductions in fecundity is important for advancing theory, generating accurate predictive models, and achieving effective management. We investigated the impacts of brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) on elk ( Cervus canadensis ) productivity using serological data from over 6,000 captures since 1990 in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Over 1,000 of these records included known age and pregnancy status. Using Bayesian multilevel models, we estimated the age‐specific pregnancy probabilities of exposed and naïve elk. We then used repeat‐capture data to investigate the full effects of the disease on life history. Brucellosis exposure reduced pregnancy rates of elk captured in mid‐ and late‐winter. In an average year, we found 60% of exposed 2‐year‐old elk were pregnant compared to 91% of their naïve counterparts (a 31 percentage point reduction, 89% HPDI = 20%–42%), whereas exposed 3‐ to 9‐year‐olds were 7 percentage points less likely to be pregnant than naïve elk of their same age (89% HPDI = 2%–11%). We found these reduced rates of pregnancy to be independent from disease‐induced abortions, which afflict a portion of exposed elk. We estimate that the combination of reduced pregnancy by mid‐winter and the abortions following mid‐winter reduces the reproductive output of exposed female elk by 24%, which affects population dynamics to a similar extent as severe winters or droughts. Exposing hidden reproductive costs of disease is essential to avoid conflating them with the effects of climate and predation. Such reproductive costs cause complex population dynamics, and the magnitude of the effect we found should drive a strong selection gradient if there is heritable resistance.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Removal of chronic Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae carrier ewes eliminates pneumonia in a bighorn sheep population

Chronic pathogen carriage is one mechanism that allows diseases to persist in populations. We hypothesized that persistent or recurrent pneumonia in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations may be caused by chronic carriers of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae ( Mo ). Our experimental approach allowed us to address a conservation need while investigating the role of chronic carriage in disease persistence. We tested our hypothesis in two bighorn sheep populations in South Dakota, USA. We identified and removed Mo chronic carriers from the Custer State Park (treatment) population. Simultaneously, we identified carriers but did not remove them from the Rapid City population (control). We predicted removal would result in decreased pneumonia, mortality, and Mo prevalence. Both population ranges had similar habitat and predator communities but were sufficiently isolated to preclude intermixing. We classified chronic carriers as adults that consistently tested positive for Mo carriage over a 20‐month sampling period ( n = 2 in the treatment population; n = 2 in control population). We failed to detect Mo or pneumonia in the treatment population after chronic carrier removal, while both remained in the control. Mortality hazard for lambs was reduced by 72% in the treatment population relative to the control (CI = 36%, 91%). There was also a 41% reduction in adult mortality hazard attributable to the treatment, although this was not statistically significant (CI = 82% reduction, 34% increase). Synthesis and Applications : These results support the hypothesis that Mo is a primary causative agent of persistent or recurrent respiratory disease in bighorn sheep populations and can be maintained by a few chronic carriers. Our findings provide direction for future research and management actions aimed at controlling pneumonia in wild sheep and may apply to other diseases.

South Dakota↗

USGS2020

Differences in rhizosphere microbial communities between native and non‐native Phragmites australis may depend on stand density

Microorganisms surrounding plant roots may benefit invasive species through enhanced mutualism or decreased antagonism, when compared to surrounding native species. We surveyed the rhizosphere soil microbiome of a prominent invasive plant, Phragmites australis , and its co‐occurring native subspecies for evidence of microbial drivers of invasiveness. If the rhizosphere microbial community is important in driving plant invasions, we hypothesized that non‐native Phragmites would cultivate a different microbiome from native Phragmites , containing fewer pathogens, more mutualists, or both. We surveyed populations of native and non‐native Phragmites across Michigan and Ohio USA, and we described rhizosphere microbial communities using culture‐independent next‐generation sequencing. We found little evidence that native and non‐native Phragmites cultivate distinct bacterial, fungal, or oomycete rhizosphere communities. Microbial community differences in our Michigan survey were not associated with plant lineage but were mainly driven by environmental factors, such as soil saturation and nutrient concentrations. Intensive sampling along transects consisting of dense monocultures of each lineage and mixed zones revealed bacterial community differences between lineages in dense monoculture, but not in mixture. We found no evidence of functional differences in the microbial communities surrounding each lineage. We extrapolate that the invasiveness of non‐native Phragmites , when compared to its native congener, does not result from the differential cultivation of beneficial or antagonistic rhizosphere microorganisms.

Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2025

Pan-amphibia distribution of the fungal parasite Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis varies with species and temperature

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a globally distributed fungal pathogen of amphibians that has contributed to one of the largest disease-related biodiversity losses in wildlife. Bd is regularly viewed through the lens of a global wildlife epizootic because the spread of highly virulent genetic lineages has resulted in well-documented declines and extinctions of multiple amphibian species. However, the current state of Bd occurrence, host range, host impacts, and ecological drivers remains poorly understood outside of the most negatively affected amphibian species and regions. Our objective was to describe the macroecology of Bd occurrence and infection intensity on caudates (salamanders) across the United States and to compare these patterns with better-studied anurans (frogs and toads). We collected swabs from 11,183 amphibians at 609 sites from 54 species across the United States from 2015 to 2017. We analyzed the prevalence and intensity of Bd infection jointly using a Bayesian hurdle model with covariates of site-level temperature and precipitation, as well as individual characteristics and species identification. Bd was distributed widely across sites and species sampled across the spatial extent of the conterminous United States. We found that Bd prevalence and intensity were most strongly influenced by temperature in the month preceding sampling and by differences among taxon groups. We estimated that temperature had a strong and nonlinear influence on both Bd prevalence and intensity with peak infection at intermediate temperatures and lower infection at low and high temperatures. We found Caudate hosts tended to have higher prevalence than Anuran hosts and Anuran hosts tended to have higher intensity at optimal temperatures for Bd infection. Our findings suggest that Bd has an amphibian-wide host range, temperature gradients exert a strong influence on Bd, and enzootic transmission likely encompasses a much larger spatial and species distribution than previously recognized across North America.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2016

Tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasite sampling designs for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Parasites and pathogens are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of ecological and evolutionary change in natural ecosystems. Concurrently, transmission of infectious agents among human, livestock, and wildlife populations represents a growing threat to veterinary and human health. In light of these trends and the scarcity of long-term time series data on infection rates among vectors and reservoirs, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will collect measurements and samples of a suite of tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasites through a continental-scale surveillance program. Here, we describe the sampling designs for these efforts, highlighting sampling priorities, field and analytical methods, and the data as well as archived samples to be made available to the research community. Insights generated by this sampling will advance current understanding of and ability to predict changes in infection and disease dynamics in novel, interdisciplinary, and collaborative ways.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Factors that affect parasitism of black-tailed prairie dogs by fleas

Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that feed on vertebrate hosts. Fleas can reduce the fitness of hosts by interfering with immune responses, disrupting adaptive behaviors, and transmitting pathogens. The negative effects of fleas on hosts are usually most pronounced when fleas attain high densities. In lab studies, fleas desiccate and die under dry conditions, suggesting that populations of fleas will tend to decline when precipitation is scarce under natural conditions. To test this hypothesis, we compared precipitation vs. parasitism of black-tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) by fleas at a single colony during May and June of 13 consecutive years (1976–1988) at Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota, USA. The number of fleas on prairie dogs decreased with increasing precipitation during both the prior growing season (April through August of the prior year) and the just-completed winter–spring (January through April of current year). Due to the reduction in available moisture and palatable forage in dry years, herbivorous prairie dogs might have been food-limited, with weakened behavioral and immunological defenses against fleas. In support of this hypothesis, adult prairie dogs of low mass harbored more fleas than heavier adults. Our results have implications for the spread of plague, an introduced bacterial disease, transmitted by fleas, that devastates prairie dog colonies and, in doing so, can transform grassland ecosystems.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Whitebark pine mortality related to white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle outbreak, and water availability

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) forests in the western United States have been adversely affected by an exotic pathogen ( Cronartium ribicola , causal agent of white pine blister rust), insect outbreaks ( Dendroctonus ponderosae , mountain pine beetle), and drought. We monitored individual trees from 2004 to 2013 and characterized stand-level biophysical conditions through a mountain pine beetle epidemic in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Specifically, we investigated associations between tree-level variables (duration and location of white pine blister rust infection, presence of mountain pine beetle, tree size, and potential interactions) with observations of individual whitebark pine tree mortality. Climate summaries indicated that cumulative growing degree days in years 2006–2008 likely contributed to a regionwide outbreak of mountain pine beetle prior to the observed peak in whitebark mortality in 2009. We show that larger whitebark pine trees were preferentially attacked and killed by mountain pine beetle and resulted in a regionwide shift to smaller size class trees. In addition, we found evidence that smaller size class trees with white pine blister rust infection experienced higher mortality than larger trees. This latter finding suggests that in the coming decades white pine blister rust may become the most probable cause of whitebark pine mortality. Our findings offered no evidence of an interactive effect of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust infection on whitebark pine mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interestingly, the probability of mortality was lower for larger trees attacked by mountain pine beetle in stands with higher evapotranspiration. Because evapotranspiration varies with climate and topoedaphic conditions across the region, we discuss the potential to use this improved understanding of biophysical influences on mortality to identify microrefugia that might contribute to successful whitebark pine conservation efforts. Using tree-level observations, the National Park Service-led Greater Yellowstone Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-term Monitoring Program provided important ecological insight on the size-dependent effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and water availability on whitebark pine mortality. This ongoing monitoring campaign will continue to offer observations that advance conservation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2018

Estimating the probability of movement and partitioning seasonal survival in an amphibian metapopulation

Movement of individuals has been described as one of the best studied, but least understood concepts in ecology. The magnitude of movements, routes, and probability of movement have significant application to conservation. Information about movement can inform efforts to model species persistence and is particularly applicable in situations where specific threats (e.g., disease) may depend on the movement of hosts and potential vectors. We estimated the probability of movement (breeding dispersal and permanent emigration) in a metapopulation of 16 breeding sites for boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreasboreas ). We used a multi‐state mark–recapture approach unique in its complexity (16 sites over 18 yr) to address questions related to these movements and variation in resident survival. We found that individuals had a 1–2% probability of dispersing in a particular year and that approximately 10–20% of marked individuals were transient and observed in the metapopulation only once. Resident survival probabilities differed by season, with 71–90% survival from emergence from hibernation through early post‐breeding and >97% survival from mid‐/late active season through hibernation. Movement‐related probabilities are needed to predict species range expansions and contractions, estimate population and metapopulation dynamics, understand host–pathogen and native–invasive species interactions, and to evaluate the relative effects of proposed management actions.

Colorado↗

USGS2020

Flea sharing among sympatric rodent hosts: implications for potential plague effects on a threatened sciurid

For vector-borne diseases, the abundance and competency of different vector species and their host preferences will impact the transfer of pathogens among hosts. Sylvatic plague is a lethal disease caused by the primarily flea-borne bacterium Yersinia pestis . Sylvatic plague was introduced into the western United States in the early 1900s and impacts many species of rodents. Plague may be suppressing populations of the threatened northern Idaho ground squirrel ( Urocitellus brunneus ) if a competent flea community is allowing plague to be maintained within the few extant sites that support this rare ground squirrel. We collected fleas from four species of sympatric rodents in central Idaho: northern Idaho ground squirrels, Columbian ground squirrels ( Urocitellus columbianus ), yellow-pine chipmunks ( Tamias amoenus ), and deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ). We evaluated which flea species were present and whether fleas were shared among the rodent community. We documented seven species of fleas among 3356 fleas collected from the four host species of rodents, and all seven species of fleas are known vectors of plague. Three of the seven flea species were detected on all four rodent species, demonstrating potential for spillover of plague (bridge vectors) in the rodent community. We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate which abiotic and biotic factors influence flea abundance (total number of fleas, regardless of flea species, on each individual host of the four rodent host species). Factors that impacted flea abundance varied among the four host species, but flea abundance: (1) changed over summer depending on host species, (2) was greater on males, and (3) was impacted by summer and winter precipitation depending on host species. Our results suggest this diverse flea community has the capacity to transfer Y. pestis among populations of the four rodents if Y. pestis is present. Furthermore, the disease may be more likely to persist in some locations than others, those that have higher flea abundances, more sympatric hosts, or optimal conditions for fleas, and such high-risk sites can be identified based on their abiotic and biotic factors.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Hippopotamus movements structure the spatiotemporal dynamics of an active anthrax outbreak

Globally, anthrax outbreaks pose a serious threat to people, livestock, and wildlife. Furthermore, environmental change can exacerbate these outbreak dynamics by altering the host–pathogen relationship. However, little is known about how the quantitative spatial dynamics of host movement and environmental change may affect the spread of Bacillus anthracis , the causative agent of anthrax. Here, we use real-time observations and high-resolution tracking data from a population of common hippopotamus ( Hippopotamus amphibius ) in Tanzania to explore the relationship between river hydrology, H. amphibius movement, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of an active anthrax outbreak. We found that extreme river drying, a consequence of anthropogenic disturbances to our study river, indirectly facilitated the spread of B. anthracis by modulating H. amphibius movements. Our findings reveal that anthrax spread upstream in the Great Ruaha River (~3.5 km over a 9-day period), which followed the movement patterns of infected H. amphibius , who moved upstream as the river dried in search of remaining aquatic refugia. These upstream movements can result in large aggregations of H. amphibius . However, despite these aggregations, the density of H. amphibius in river pools did not influence the number of B. anthracis -induced mortalities. Moreover, infection by B. anthracis did not appear to influence H. amphibius movement behaviors, which suggests that infected individuals can vector B. anthracis over large distances right up until their death. Finally, we show that contact rates between H. amphibius- and B. anthracis- infected river pools are highly variable and the frequency and duration of contacts could potentially increase the probability of mortality. While difficult to obtain, the quantitative insights that we gathered during a real-time anthrax outbreak are critical to better understand, predict, and manage future outbreaks.

Ruaha National Park↗

USGS2024

Effects of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, abundance, and environmental conditions on bighorn sheep lamb:ewe ratios and adult survival in New Mexico

Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae is a primary causative agent responsible for initiating polymicrobial pneumonia in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ). Infections of bighorn sheep populations are typically characterized by initial all-age epizootics followed by long-term periods of repressed juvenile (lamb) survival. Populations of bighorn sheep in New Mexico, USA, were thought to be free of this pathogen prior to 2017 but recent infection of multiple herds raised concerns regarding impacts on population size and juvenile:female ratios. Using aerial survey, survival, and disease sampling data in an exploratory framework, we (1) characterize age-related differences in M. ovipneumoniae prevalence and seroprevalence, (2) quantify differences in lamb:ewe ratios pre- and post- M. ovipneumoniae detection, and (3) investigate differences in survival between previously exposed and naïve individuals. From 2007 to 2022, we sampled 466 bighorn sheep across 19 populations in New Mexico for M. ovipneumoniae exposure. While the timing of initial herd infections varied across populations, one population sustained active infections for over 15 years. We found reduced juvenile:female ratios post M. ovipneumoniae exposure for both desert ( O. c. mexicana ) and Rocky Mountain ( O. c. canadensis ) bighorn sheep populations. Post-exposure ratio declines ranged from 20% to 69%. Evaluation of population size and environmental condition effects on juvenile:female ratios indicated varying impacts for each subspecies. Notably, population size was negatively related to Rocky Mountain juvenile:female ratios only after populations were exposed to M. ovipneumoniae . Additionally, climatic conditions in the previous lambing season and pre-parturition time frame were associated with juvenile:female ratios for Rocky Mountain populations, while juvenile:female ratios of desert bighorn appeared to only be affected by pre-parturition climatic conditions. Kaplan–Meier survival estimation of previously exposed, but putatively recovered, individuals ( n = 31) and naïve individuals ( n = 70) revealed lower (75%; 95% CI: 62%–93%) but not statistically significant ( p = 0.2) 1-year survival rates for individuals that were seropositive but not actively infected, when compared to seronegative individuals (88%; 95% CI: 81%–97%). These results collectively suggest that following M. ovipneumoniae introduction, bighorn sheep populations in New Mexico could be limited by lamb survival.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Unintended indirect effects limit elk productivity from supplemental feeding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The widespread practice of supplemental feeding, a bottom-up forcing of resource availability, is intended to improve wildlife population health and survival. However, supplemental feeding could trigger indirect effects by altering predation rates and disease dynamics. We investigated the effects of feeding on three key elk ( Cervus canadensis ) population productivity metrics (calf:cow ratios, annual change in elk density, and harvestable surplus) across 13 regions in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) over 26 years. Incorporating previous population size, climate, predator, and harvest data in a Bayesian regression framework revealed new insights about elk productivity metrics in the GYE. Supplemental feeding was associated with increased calf:cow ratios (4.9%) but was not substantially related to changes in elk density and harvestable surplus, which are both management targets. Notably, the feeding effect on calf:cow ratios appeared to be offset by increased wolf ( Canis lupus ) and grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) predation. We hypothesize that increased elk productivity resulting from supplemental feeding is primarily transferred to predator and pathogen trophic levels in this system with limited observed effects on elk abundance and harvestable surplus. Anthropogenic food resources may have unintended indirect consequences on other trophic levels that potentially limit the direct impacts of feeding.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗